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The business model of failure
Kamandi777
Member UncommonPosts: 223
I think that titles like RIFT, WAR, Aion and similar funpark MMOs are designed to fail.
WoW dominates this market. When these new titles come out they charge around $50 to buy the game. If the game hit s a million subs....thats $50M. Let's say the game can keep that level of subs for 4 months. Thats another $45M. Gross revenue of course.
I have no idea how much it costs to launch a title like this, but in 4 months they have grossed almost $100M.
That's alot of money.
All they have to do now is let it wind down and the process begins again.
Growing and withering in the shadow of WoW may be a profitable short term wealth generator.
ideas?
Comments
this would explain the non existent customer service of the aforementioned games and the bad performance of the last event.
i doubt seriously it is designed intentionally to fail. I like Rift, but it does at this time have a short shelf life. I played EQ1 for about 3 years. Ever since, I have played these games progressively less amount of time, until now when it seems I am rarely in a game longer than 4 or 5 months before I grow bored, or something shinier comes along.
But these teams of developers cannot be trying to make something with a short life on purpose. They are following tried and true formulas, but at the end of the day, they want their game to have a long life, and it will make even more money. Sure, they might have short term profitability, but long term is better.
Stop buying every piece of garbage they throw at us.
Participate in Beta's, and Trials to see if you like the game or not.
I dunno why people think an MMO is going to be different if the current business model is making money. Its all the same stuff reskinned with different skills and new mobs. The game play will be the same until you stop paying for it.
"They are following tried and true formulas" if they are tried and true...why are they on the scrap heap?
I did..RIFT rocked...then the "event" stalled the game for over a month. Now I can't bring myself to log on. They lost that "window of opportunity" for me. And I think others too.
I would still be playing WAR if they had done a better job with the world and class balance.
The problem is that there are millions of players who actually like that. To them, reskinned WoW clones are not a problem, they enjoy it.
It comes down to another complaint people have. Professional athletes' huge paychecks. Loads of people complain about how much money a star athlete gets, but its the fans of those athletes and the ad revenue they generate that make them worth it. Until people quit buying products they endorse, and watching the games these athletes play, they are worth that kid of money, or simply put, they would not be paid that much.
As long as these games are enjoyed by someone, they will make money, period. I don't know anyone of my friends who played Rift and did not have fun, in spite of acknowledging that is was a WoW clone. Loads of them have quit already, some have stuck with it.
The WoW model will not be dying anytime soon, and if you want to see different games, its more amatter of supporting them when they come along, rather than intentionally no supporting others.
You have to play what you like, period.
I would argue then that its a matter of execution. WoW worked because it was, at one time anyway, well balanced. WAR failed dramatically because of balance issues. That steps away from what is tried and true.
Rift, in my opinion, is fun, but the world is tiny compared to Azeroth. I think that is a huge part of its failing.
Aion, in spite of being quite similar to WoW, stepped away from the tried and true pretty dramatically with their pvp, which was a disaster.
Each of these games is dying for different reasons, but reasons that have very little to do with WoW's dynamics. Its more where they were NOT like WoW that caused them to die, imo.
EDIT: uggh quoted the wrong post, was supposed to have quoted the tried and true comment.
They aren't. A lot of them are making eaqual to or more money than MMO's did before WoW and have equal or more subs than Top-5 MMO's had before WoW, even a year after their release.
So, 'scrap heap' sounds like pure a perception matter to me, not one of hard figures.
So, then it wasn't the tried and true formula that was the problem, but more so the polish and finetuning that lacked, right?
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I think a concept many of us need to address is not only the business model, but the current state of MMOs in general. There are many of us who sit down at our computer desks and look up at the shelf containing a number of MMO boxes that we have played to greater and lesser degree over the course of the past several years. Regardless of the name of the game, the artstyle on the box and in the game, or the developer logo on the side of the box, is there really that much that distinguishes these games from one another? The MMO industry is at an important, frustrating time in which developers are attempting to discern what it is we gamers want from an MMO. The problem is, I'm not convinced we even know ourselves exactly what it is we want. There are niche players looking for a game that fits their demands, but that niche may not be fiscally possible from the developmental standpoint of a game company. The quickly changing landscape of the subscription model adds an entirely new facet to how MMOs will continue to develop. The idea that box sales and a market-standard monthly subscription has and is being re-evaluated by developers, as is the concept of box sales only games such as Guild Wars.
Although there is no shortage of hype, I think Star Wars the Old Republic will greatly impact the MMO industry. Not just from the, "can they do a good Star Wars game," perspective, but also in terms of the supposed changes from the relative norm in development of an MMO. Will the concept of more story-driven gameplay really pan out in an MMO? How will the voice acting impact gameplay, especially in terms of replaying when rolling an alt character? Further, what plans does Bioware have for rolling alts, as they have hinted at a new concept in this area? Also, will Bioware follow the standard box sale, monthly subscription model, or are they going to introduce an additional item mall-esque component into a AAA MMO? The manner in which SW:TOR performs will, to some degree have an impact on the future of MMOs. Speaking from personal experience, I think we, as the gaming population, need to determine what it is we want from our games and work to communicate that to developers both in development phases and in our purchasing behavior, rather than hope these same developers will divine it out of some form of real knowledge about what we want.
Heress the real problem with new MMO's. EVERYONE comparis them to WoW . WoW has been out for over 7 years and has had ALOT of time to make things work and try new and diffenet things that didn't. They havd had 7+ years to add quest,raids,pvp ect. YOU can NOT !! make a new MMO with the content WoW has right now , you need to get a game out that ppl will like and keep subbing til you get the $$$ to make all that added fluff. See invstores give compaines $$$ to make a product and expect $$$ in return. If a company came out with 1000 ++ hours of content from the very start of a new game it would take YEARS to do this. WoW had 7 so ........... Give it time and see what happenes. I am waiting for Tera and SWtOR to come out but i know it will have alot less content then say WoW has.
Played Aoc/DDO/FFXI/WAR / LoTRo / CO / Aion
Playing Rift
Waiting for FFXIV to be the game it should. so sad =(
All I can say is if folks keep falling for the same old hype, look at us where the wow killer. Were going to keep failing, and falling into the same pattern.
More of the same is not what is needed something totally new and different that looks nothing like wow at all, is what is needed.
However the same old hype is what is being sold and for the life of my why folks buy into it is amazing.
Just an average FYI, it takes about 1.5 years for a MMO to start turning a profit once all expenses and debts are considered. Of course this is in general and some games do better or worse in their first year.
I think another issue is that every prospective mmorg is now viewed by a large audience with different tastes, long term jaded player, casuals, single player who dont understand what a moorg is etc. The industry and players alike need to recognise that these players need Different mmorg games to suit their needs. If a casual looks at a sandbox game they should be prepared to accept it's not for them if it doesnt appeal and move on, equally long term/hardcore players need to look at mmorgs aimed at the casual end of the market and do the same. There are a few mmorgs on its way, so maybe just maybe that will be how it pans out. For example you could perhaps qualify the incomming AAA mmorgs as follows.
- Archage : looks to be a candidate that may provide the next level of experience for long term players, sandbox, community driven, open ended. Likely lower population over long term, still profitable for the development team and maybe charges a little more than average mmorg to offset risk (i am not suggesting this is what is going to happen, but its an interesting idea, I would pay for e.g)
- Guild Wars 2 : Middle ground, not sandbox, not loot/stat centric, some end game. could appeal to long term and casual players. Medium population.
- SWOTR, Others. More casual friendly, aiming at big market/wow market, very specific end game, probably loot/stat driven.
Likely to be many other titles inbetween ofc and you could argue about the above, but the point is accepting they are mmoorg types in their own right.
From a personal perspective for example I look at Archeage and get excited about that, Guild wars as well for a different gaming experience, The others just dont appeal any more. Other players will have different tastes. I however should not be looking at SWOTR for example and start complaining/posting ' I want the game to do what I want'
Developers need to tune their products as well to have a clearer vision of what their market is, trying to aim to all types of players is just unrealistic, as some of the demands from different player types contradict each other, something we see a lot these days with the arguable result that the answer is dumb down to the biggest player market.
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
Now playing GW2, AOW 3, ESO, LOTR, Elite D
Agree,the games are fun at first then iy gets just boring.Like rift why do you have to do first t1 armor upgrade then t2 before you start raiding with your friends? This is just so boring that I have no words for it.
Imo there is only 1 game on the market where grinding is fun and that game is 11 year old,Asherons Call, grinding is so fun in that game you find uber loot soloing at low level and you can sell that loot to high level characters. I simply love the loot system and grinding from Asherons Call.
Ye I'll take your word for it! O_o
This is a new model.
They show you a beta where you get to play and have fun.. so you buy their product, and then start the nerfing process the 'screw' phase as i call it, until the players start dropping and game slowly dies out in a couple of months or so.
Then pick the game engine, remodel the graphics etc, and relaunch with another name eventually using another company.
~This is a new model yes..
As others have stated in this thread...
(A) People compare freshly launched games to WoW expecting an alike or better game, you can't just launch with an equivalent 7 years of polish...
(B) Developers really do need to have a more precise target audience, it doesn't have to be niche but they definitely need to find what drives people away from WoW and what philosophy that game does not fulfill for them. Trying to take WoW players from WoW by giving them something similar but "new" is only going to end up failing..
How are you really going to overpower anywhere from 2-4 years of habit building playing wow and provide nothing execeptionally new and innovative and expect people to stay long term.... you can't. WoW has the chokehold at the moment for the Stat centric, gear treadmill, instant gratification crowd... Appeal to the people that this doesn't entertain and you may have a successful title. When Blizzard releases D3 and their new "MMO" we may see WoW start to die off and without promises of expansion packs they then will flock to other titles to fulfill their needs, but for now like any good business model they are going to ride it out for all the profit they can get...
Imagine the greatest minds of mmo-gaming, programming and non-greedy people come together to make an mmo for us and not for them.
Now erase that thought, because it's never going to happen.
If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe. - Carl Sagan
What makes you think they are? WoW has maintained a growing player base for more than 6 years now. Its a function of timing, elements of the game constellation, and funding. Way too many Dev's ignore or neglect some of the variables involved, which results in sub par results.
Rift has come as close to the formula as any I've seen in quite some time. But its still missing somthing, not to mention the difference 6 plus years has had on the general gaming population. Those people who claim to want a "sand box" game, are obviously in the minority.
Not to mention when I hear "sand box" I mentally translate that to FFA full loot gankfest. Why? Because thats been my experience with games called "sand box". Of course, there is a rather limited market for such games in the western markets. So the cycle continues. Eventually, someone will get it right, and another WoW like game will explode on to the market.
The problem is "we" ( as in us, the consumers) don't really know what we want. We are fickle and our tastes change like someone with a bad wardrobe: lots of changes, very few surprises. Devs need to keep their finger on the pulse of the gaming community, but when they do all they feel is staccato.
I think the most successful MMOs will have certain key elements that are universal (short list: ability to solo to max, pvp, decent end game). Then take a few new tricks ("shineys") and throw them in the mix to appeal to our fickle tastes. Eventually a developer will come up with the new trick that actually sticks to the wall and hence will have a success. I actually don't think its that complicated.
Current Games: WOW, EVE Online
I loled
If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe. - Carl Sagan
Rift is missing the same thing they all are. And people who claim sandbox games are desired are not a minority.
A themepark cannot be successful long-term without the sandbox game. That's why they fail to retain subs. they were never meant to retain subs. Or they have no idea how to recreate that illusion.
A sandbox game with a themepark on top is the next step. A start to a virtual World. Instead will get themeparks with more sandbox style features, or empty themeparks calling themselves sandboxes. If people are still making mmo's in 2 years.
See you in the dream..
The Fires from heaven, now as cold as ice. A rapid ascension tolls a heavy price.
That has been the norm for a long time, where have you been. Even a failure makes these developers rich. A premium MMO should take about $50 million to make. But the cost of making an MMO is going down, yet these companies keep charging a premium (ie: instead of $4.99)
"No they are not charity. That is where the whales come in. (I play for free. Whales pays.) Devs get a business. That is how it works."
-Nariusseldon
The best thing developpers can do is listen to their customers.
The worst developpers can do is, listen to their customers.
Meaning, learn from previous games, make a new game, but dont use the forums to listen to all the "feedback" and change your initial ideas, lore, level of difficulty, or you will end up what we have today: boring solo epic grinds and numbed down theme parks.
Currently playing browser games. Waiting for Albion Online, Citadel of Sorcery and Camelot Unchained.
Played: almost all MMO pre 2007