Of the upcoming mmo's...New but old juggernaut?

mike43978

I have played many mmo's starting with runescape at a young age, then onto a game called Knight Online, then various periods of time committed to WoW, some Guild wars and Ever Quest here and there, all of which I enjoyed until I got bored of them.  I even played Aion, however Aion at the time I played was to much of a grind similair to Knight Online and I didn't feel like going through another grinder again.

With this year of 2011 lots of new mmos will be coming out, DCUO, RIFT, TERA, GW2 (Maybe 2012).

With this being said I think all will have early success and possibly have success of retaining a fairly large player population.  Rift has set itself up to appeal to WoW players.  DCUO already released has a good population so far.  Tera is a eastern game trying to go western and if it succeeds i think it very well could achieve much of what it claims and also retain a good sized population.  GW2 already looks a whole lot better than GW1 and the world itself seems awesome.  With all of these games coming out it will be very difficult to choose which one to go with.

However, an old juggernaut of the movie industry with an already huge fan base it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Star Wars the Old Republic became the most popular of these, simply because of how popular star wars already is and because the game based of different videos from the website http://www.swtor.com/ , using music to set the tone like star wars movies always have and the fact that theres a whole galaxy to explore, many different planets that each have a distinct look to one another unlike most mmo's today that are based on 1 maybe 2 planets where people see the same different zones.  Sure we will get used to these different planets, however it will take much longer and this feel of freshness in our surroundings of an mmo is a major key to success, not to mention the fully vocalized gameplay.

Now don't get me wrong I am going to try all the upcoming mmo's I have listed and try to find which one suits me best I'm just saying it won't surprise me if swtor wins the marathon in the end.

I have also looked into each of the games I listed thoroughly and keep going back and forth on which will be the best but only time will tell over the next few years.  And considering the fact that these new mmo's are also releasing commercials now the mmo audience will see significant growth I think.

Any thoughts?

Alot

GW2 and SW:ToR are the most anticipated games in the PC Gaming world at the moment. But since SW:ToR is a Star Wars MMO it will probably grab the largest audience, time will tell if Bioware is able to maintain an audience of that size.

Mardy

I would say Guild Wars 2, since sci fi fans are quite picky.  But who knows, if SWTOR can live up to its hype, it'll do pretty alright.  Right now it's all speculation though.

Skillzeroo

Judging by Guild War's success I'm going to have to go GW2... I can see SW:TOR making it up there but I can't see it keeping as many players as Guild Wars... RIFT isn't even going to compete and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it followed the path of AoC (Minus the completely flawed and buggy release)

Xasapis

Best in what OP?

Myrdynn

its not really fair to put a p2p vs a b2p game.

for every 1 million copies of GW2 sold Rift needs approx 50,000 subscribers to financially surpass GW2.

based on 7 yr approx life of MMO's

 

GW2 makes 50mil per million over 7 yrs

Rift makes 2.5mil + 52,500,000 over 7 yrs (12.50 a month avg)

 

this doesnt take into account expansion, but a rough estimate is that GW2 will reach 5 mil or 250mil in earnings and RIFT will reach 1 mil subs netting well over 1 billion 

Sfaliara

Originally posted by Myrdynn

its not really fair to put a p2p vs a b2p game.

for every 1 million copies of GW2 sold Rift needs approx 50,000 subscribers to financially surpass GW2.

based on 7 yr approx life of MMO's

 

GW2 makes 50mil per million over 7 yrs

Rift makes 2.5mil + 52,500,000 over 7 yrs (12.50 a month avg)

 

this doesnt take into account expansion, but a rough estimate is that GW2 will reach 5 mil or 250mil in earnings and RIFT will reach 1 mil subs netting well over 1 billion 

"Which upcoming MMO will gather the largest audience?"

Why resort to financial success? The poll was clear.

Myrdynn

Originally posted by Sfaliara

Originally posted by Myrdynn

its not really fair to put a p2p vs a b2p game.

for every 1 million copies of GW2 sold Rift needs approx 50,000 subscribers to financially surpass GW2.

based on 7 yr approx life of MMO's

 

GW2 makes 50mil per million over 7 yrs

Rift makes 2.5mil + 52,500,000 over 7 yrs (12.50 a month avg)

 

this doesnt take into account expansion, but a rough estimate is that GW2 will reach 5 mil or 250mil in earnings and RIFT will reach 1 mil subs netting well over 1 billion 

"Which upcoming MMO will gather the largest audience?"

Why resort to financial success? The poll was clear.

its a baited question obviously the one you only have to pay 1x and never again will draw more.  But thats like comparing Toyota to Mercedes.  More people obviously own Toyotas cause they are cheaper.  But Mercedes is just as successful.  

Why not throw Diablo 3 in the poll, its in the same category as GW2

URNotMega

I agree with the poll results.  GW2 and SWTOR will gather the biggest communities, initially at least.  I feel Rift has the most potential to be the biggest success in the long run.  It'll be up to the devs to keep the content fresh and if people are still happy after a few months, more and more will begin streaming in.  I can see the community growing into the millions, but can also see it dying off after a few months if rifts/invasions don't evolve enough in end game.

GW2 I think the biggest # of MMO players will purchase it initially.

SWTOR has potential.  We'll see.

Sfaliara

Originally posted by Myrdynn

Originally posted by Sfaliara

Originally posted by Myrdynn

its not really fair to put a p2p vs a b2p game.

for every 1 million copies of GW2 sold Rift needs approx 50,000 subscribers to financially surpass GW2.

based on 7 yr approx life of MMO's

 

GW2 makes 50mil per million over 7 yrs

Rift makes 2.5mil + 52,500,000 over 7 yrs (12.50 a month avg)

 

this doesnt take into account expansion, but a rough estimate is that GW2 will reach 5 mil or 250mil in earnings and RIFT will reach 1 mil subs netting well over 1 billion 

"Which upcoming MMO will gather the largest audience?"

Why resort to financial success? The poll was clear.

its a baited question obviously the one you only have to pay 1x and never again will draw more.  But thats like comparing Toyota to Mercedes.  More people obviously own Toyotas cause they are cheaper.  But Mercedes is just as successful.  

Why not throw Diablo 3 in the poll, its in the same category as GW2

Why is it a baited question? That's right let's remove GW2 from the list cause it's B2P and all the Rift fanboys are gonna get offended if it attracts more players. GW2 competes in the MMO market, D3 is just a game with online option.

Myrdynn

then why not list all f2p games as well?

Im not a fanboi and will be playing both games btw.

Pennies are more popular then $100 bills apparently as well since they are both currencies

deniter

I voted SW:ToR, not because I'm looking forward to play it (I'm not) but because SW:ToR will have a huge amount of money for marketing it and marketing is how these games get their players.

Azzkicka

GW2 for the simple fact that it is B2P.  Arenanet can claim anyone who ever bought their game is an active GW2 player.  Hell i dont even like GW2 and i'm probebly going to pick it up for a month or two of fun.

just2duh

 I want to say GW2, for the obvious reason (no monthly fee), but I do not think it will have the LARGEST numbers. Although it should have the most stable, where as others I think will have the better numbers starting out but then will drop like flies.

 Other than GW2 the only other of any interest to me at this point is TERA, mainly for it's combat which looks pretty statisfying.

 So i'm at a cross between GW2 and TERA, but for the most part i'd bet they will be the ones to have the most players many months after they release.

Drafell

I think SW:TOR, followed by GuildWars 2 and then Rift.

However, I am interested in seeing what metric you would want to judge this by. At what point would it be fair and meaningful to take numbers and compare each title?

SW:TOR has the most marketing potential in terms of player appeal. It can appeal towards fans of both the franchise and fans of MMO's in general. GuildWars 2 and Rift meanwhile have themselves restricted to similar markets. Rift will launch first and in a time when little else of consequence is immediately due so it can take advantage of the lack of other big budget titles with which is needs to compete for initial sales, whereas GuildWars 2 will be relying on pulling in all of the fans of the original GuildWars, as well as the entire marketing base that NCSoft is able to deploy in the East. It also seems to be the only title that is actually aiming to try something relatively new.

My money is personally behind GW2 being the most "successful", although I do hope that both SW:TOR and Rift take off and can prove to be sucessful MMO's in their own right as they will help contribute to the overall health of the MMO industry and as a result, improve the willingness of investors to back such projects.

Rockgod99

Rift is the sleeper.

Noone thinks Rift will have more subs/buyers than TOR and GW2.

Tazlor

GW2 will have the largest audience because it's B2P, SW:TOR will be second because it's bioware and starwars, and Rift will most likely be third.  even though Rift is a good game it just can't compete with a huge IP like starwars and a B2P game.

Loke666

GW2 will most likely have some more players, if not for anything else then because many players will use it as an alt game for when they are tired of their usual game or whne their other games server are down.

Few people play 2 P2P game, while 15 bucks isn't much double that for a years is indeed a lot of money. 'that makes GW2 a perfect game for people who likes to play 2, particularly if you like Arena PvP. The original GWs most players sub to a P2P game as well, many of my guildies play Wow or EQ2 as well.

But TOR will probably do rather fine, 1 million is not unlikely at all. The question is just if EA will be happy with that or not.

MimiEZ

I had to go with Swtor because while GW2 and Rift are more popular on this site, Swtor is far more popular in the rest of the gaming world and is the only one of these MMO's I've heard people (besides my MMO friends obviously) mention outside of the internet...says something.

Annwyn

Hard to say. My prediction is that TERA will be a disappointement, and so will TOR (too much hype will lead to major letdowns). Guild Wars 2, I'm not sure. When I look at the feature list and all, doesn't seem like I'm understanding the same thing as many players, in other words, I don't really see anything to get hyped over aside from the IP and ArenaNet. GW2 will have a good playerbase that's for sure, but again, too much hype ain't good.

 

People are already disappointed with Earthrise it seems, DCUO will do "alright", The Secret World.....we don't hear much about it lately, who knows. As for RIFT, it will end up with a good and stable playerbase. but since it's really nothing new I doubt it will become the next juggernaut.

 

Overall, it would be between GW2 and Rift. And if I had to bet, I'd actually go with Rift. Not because RIFT is the best game, but because GW2 will disappoint players who are already expecting too much from the title, too much hype just isn't good, and the first impression tends to be a killer. GW2 will definitively sell a large amount of boxes, no doubt about it, but I don't think it will retain it's playerbase well. On the other hand, RIFT is very stable and polished and people know what to expect since CBT, and overall has received some pretty decent feedback. Again, it's nothing new, but it's very stable and polished and I think that will make a big difference.