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General: Prognostications for 2011

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  • DeeweDeewe Member UncommonPosts: 1,980

    That was entertaining and some assumptions does not seems that far in the wild.

     

    See you in one year to talk about it!

     

    As you like prognostications here's mine for TOR that I wrote on 11/13/2008, enjoy ;)

  • Loke666Loke666 Member EpicPosts: 21,441

    I agree with most things, but I think you might be a bit partial to Jumpgate and DCU, I expect less of them than you even though I think there is room for them.

    I also think that GW2 will be popular not only with hardcore players but also with really casual players that only play once or twice a week. No monthly fees is rather important for the truly casual. I expect it to sell more than the first game (3,5M accounts, almost 7M boxes) but I don't think it will be the next Wow.

    But on most accounts I think you are right, particularly about TOR, the trolls will have a field day when it releases.

  • DoorKnob22DoorKnob22 Member Posts: 19

    Gonna be a good year, I feel edgy now.

    ... if you gaze long into the abyss, the abyss will also gaze into you.-Friedrich Nietzsche

  • ZeroxinZeroxin Member UncommonPosts: 2,515

    Originally posted by raptorfalcon



    Originally posted by Zeroxin


    Originally posted by raptorfalcon


    Originally posted by Soveja

    Wilham... his predictions are like manipulations... you see... by talking a lot about some games and not mentioning others at all, he is creating a buzz on the games he wants us to know about:)) Ok over that paranoic part.

    Enough about the conspiration theory... a question to you all

    Is GW2 really is gonna revolutionize, reinvent MMORPG?? I kinda doubt it... We've seen 2-3 cool cinematics that present this epic world locked in a battle between good and evil, we've seen 2-3 videos of gameplay (that seems to be the same as in Aion or ther MMO's, i'm talking about targeting system and all)... and all people claim that this is gonna reinvent the wheel?? Why? what does it bring new to the MMO world? There are other games with good art design, what is the gameplay like? we have no freakin clue.

    Before hoping for the Mesiah of MMO in the form of GW2.. ask yourself this... didn't Aion look like that? (you could fly, and there was an upside down world and the abyss)... wasn't FFXV the coolest game ever when you saw those cool cinematics?... look at them now, when people got a chance to actually play and get past the PR hype and crafter promo video releases.... btw Rift seems to be going in the same direction from what I see in the reviews.

    The answer to "Is GW2 really is gonna revolutionize, reinvent MMORPG?? " is simply a Yes and NO. Personally I am a fan of GW1 and the more I read about GW2 the more average and dumbed down it seems to me. I believe they are trying to appeal to the masses and alienating their hardcore players. BUT, what would revolutionize the MMORPG industry is their revenue system. IF GW2 can be a fairly successful MMORPG in every sense of the word and STILL not charge a monthly fee or turn into a F2P style cash-shop game, then every MMORPG that launches is gonna have to think whether they can compete with that. All GW2 has to do is "not suck" and it will be a game people keep coming back to whenever they get tired of whatever new game they just tried. Anyone can buy a game, the monthly fee is what makes them think "is it really worth it?"

    Ok, incase you haven't seen it yet, take a look at this. Its a Gw2 build creator, it uses the skills we know from the fanfests and what we know of how the skill bar works to create cool and probable builds. If after playing around with it you think the game is still dumbed down, I'll say wait till you play the game to finalise that observation.


     

     Actually, I have already taken a look at it, and was saddenned by it. The skills in it look to me like someone grabbed Yugioh the card game. Threw away all the trap and magic cards and left only the very basic monsters in it and said "here you go". I loved the fact that I had all these abilitties with which to build my bar and the power to decide what and where to place each. Every time I had to make a tough decision about which skills to leave out or put in, it kept me interested in the game. The new system seems more like that of a hack and slash game to me. If they continued selling GW1 expansions I'd be happier. I also heard the argument of them just eliminating the useless skills but with elite skills like:

    Plague Turn yourself into a cloud of plague. Any enemies you touch are contaminated with multiple conditions. [720s]  that's 12 freaking minutes of recharge just to spread conditions.... I call that useless. Actually, quite a few of the skills released in the demo would never make it into my bar.. especially elites with a 12 min recharge.....

    I will of course do my best to play during the Beta and give the game a fair chance. BUT honestly, if it had a subscription I wouldn't even look at it. 

    Just judging from the information available, Tera has a much more fun combat system.


     

    I guess you still don't see the potential then. I can't talk about this without completely going off topic but, if you took the time to really see the different strings attached to this new build you'd be overwhelmed by how much those 5 yu-gi-oh cards allow you to do.

    This is not a game.

  • IzkimarIzkimar Member UncommonPosts: 568

    All good, except the next Elder Scrolls has been announced as Skryim and from the looks of it, it won't be an MMO.

  • bigd525bigd525 Member Posts: 32

    I can tell you right now that rift is a very very good game. I was in beta 3 and the huge rift inc's are EPIC and very fun.

    The pvp is much better then wow. I also like that you can take over the other faction towns (PVP Server) while trying to fight off death footholds that are also trying to take over the town. (ROCKS)

    Dungeons are very good and on par with WOW. I like it more then wow but thats just me.

    Rift builds on the best parts of mmo's, I can truly say I haven't had that much fun in a long long time with any game.


    I'll be playing Rift while I wait for GW2 and I'll still play Rift after I play GW2

  • k44cv9k44cv9 Member Posts: 33

    My biggest concern is if GW2 will be a new sort of mmo. I will be on my toes on this one.

  • HardangerHardanger Member Posts: 226

    This is far too optimistic.  I don't think he knows the industry at all.

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  • goingwyldegoingwylde Member Posts: 141

    A very optomistic look at  2011 :) 

    I dont think RIFT is going to move the boxes you think it will.  I would not call the game a WoW clone, but they are following WoW's business model of trying to make a less innovative but more polished game.  The problem is they dont have the polish yet, and they dont have a known IP like World Of Warcraft was pre-launch.

    TOR will probablly relase sooner than Christmas 2011,  and yes it will be a sh*t storm lol.   But I dont hink the player base is going to desub as soon as you think.  The premise that Bioware is selling the game on is story arc, and the diffrent paths your character can take.  I think there's more replyability there if done well, that will keep the subs a few months longer.  Maybe I'm being optomistic.  :)

    Jumpgate #2 sci-fi?  Only until TOR comes out and then its a distant, frozen, little planet orbiting third  place into the unknown.

    But my hope for 2011 is that I'm wrong and your right, and there are a lot of amazing options for gamers.

  • bigd525bigd525 Member Posts: 32

    Originally posted by goingwylde



    A very optomistic look at  2011 :) 

    I dont think RIFT is going to move the boxes you think it will.  I would not call the game a WoW clone, but they are following WoW's business model of trying to make a less innovative but more polished game.  The problem is they dont have the polish yet, and they dont have a known IP like World Of Warcraft was pre-launch.

    TOR will probablly relase sooner than Christmas 2011,  and yes it will be a sh*t storm lol.   But I dont hink the player base is going to desub as soon as you think.  The premise that Bioware is selling the game on is story arc, and the diffrent paths your character can take.  I think there's more replyability there if done well, that will keep the subs a few months longer.  Maybe I'm being optomistic.  :)

    Jumpgate #2 sci-fi?  Only until TOR comes out and then its a distant, frozen, little planet orbiting third  place into the unknown.

    But my hope for 2011 is that I'm wrong and your right, and there are a lot of amazing options for gamers.




    Rift is innovative in its own way. Maybe not as much as we all would like but its still a very good game, I think it will do just fine and as more people get to play it and see what it dose offer thay will join us and have a kick ass time.

  • MisterSrMisterSr Member UncommonPosts: 928

    I don't predict DCUO will do as well as you stated, I'm actually predicting more hordes of discontent gamers and the game taking a nose dive in subs and then maybe coming back one to two years later with a population where Aions or AoC's is now, so probably similar to your prognostic I guess. The game is not that great, it's fine I guess, but it still seems lacking in so many ways. Maybe my expectations are too high, but I haven't been enjoying beta that much. Maybe I'm just one of those discontent gamers you mentioned, but I even liked Champions more than I was liking DCUO, although the combat is loads better. Everything else was pretty spot on, although it's never safe to assume anything. 

  • gekkothegreygekkothegrey Member Posts: 236

    For the most part agree however a few things I do not. 1. I do not think there is a chance in hell Blizz will announce a new mmorpg. There is no way Blizz is going to make the same mistake Sony did with EQ by releasing another mmo when you have the strongest one on the market, not to mention Blizzard has done a great job of  updating the graphics so the game really does not look that dated if your on a high end pc running at max because they have all the money in the world to keep it fresh. 2. With swtor comming in 2011 I am not sure how the rest of the mmorpgs you mentioned will hold up. I just kind of see the rest getting stuck in a wow and swtor samich :) Just my thoughts I could be wrong. PS: If STO went free I would go back and check it out.

  • FdzzaiglFdzzaigl Member UncommonPosts: 2,433

    Some prognostics from me:

     

    RIFT will start off with a relatively large playerbase (for a game with little hype) and will lose quite a few in the first months to land at a population akin to AoC or EQ2, maybe a bit less as the latest expansions for those games pulled some people back.

    I hope it will be enough for Trion.

    People who expected revolution from this game will be disappointed, as invasions and rifts turn out to be a different implementation of public quests: fun, but not offering a drastically new experience.

    A lot will depend on how flexibly Trion can add or remove things from their game after launch.

     

    TOR  will start off with a big bang, selling millions of boxes and everyone will probably try it at some point in time. Many people might play it on and off and many others might leave after the first few months, yet I expect the game to retain a large playerbase overall.

    Cries from the players will be divided in a way similar to how WoW divided MMO players: RPG players, storyline fans and traditional mmorpg'ers will be enthusiastic while pre-CU dudes, ultima fans and simulation fans alike will pull out the pitchforks like they have been doing for the last few years, but in greater magnitude than ever before seen.

    Together with them, I also expect many hardcore PvE'rs and possibly PvP'rs (depending on what BioWare adds for that game area) to kick and scream as they have to go through a meaningful leveling curve and it is not easy to just grind your way to the top.

    Expect many flaming thread titles, alongside with those praising the game on the forums and a deep divide between fans of different games.

    As for delivery: I expect BioWare to indeed deliver the storydriven experience they promised to bring, the rest of the game being a fun and smooth MMO experience that fits the traditional image of the genre.

     

    GW2 will probably start off with a very large amount of box sales, but like the original, I expect people to mostly play it off and on between expansions instead of continuously.

    I expect many of the same cries as TOR will deal with for Guild Wars 2, except some of them will be from devoted fans who expected something totally different, while that might be less so for TOR.

    GW2 will probably deliver a storydriven experience as promised, but while TOR takes the highly individual approach with dialogue options, GW2 takes the public approach with events and this might disappoint some people who had faulty expectations.

    Like RIFT's invasions, GW2's dynamic events will turn out to be a (much more advanced) form of public events, more varied and very fun, but public events nonetheless. For some people it might be hard to get into the storyline while they are one element amidst a crowd, which will disappoint.

    As for PvP, I expect GW2 to more or less pull through the same direction there as the first game, albeit in a more open and more successful form, though this could be ruined by balance issues.

    Overall I expect GW2 to pull through the same (successful) line as the first edition, even if the game is different itself, though this one might get a lot people who stick with it as their main game of choice and don't just play it off and on (though those players will still be a significant portion of all players).

    Feel free to use my referral link for SW:TOR if you want to test out the game. You'll get some special unlocks!

  • CannyoneCannyone Member UncommonPosts: 267

    "... Folks from every walk of geekdom each have their own thoughts and expectations for what SW:TOR should be. The problem is, very few of these thoughts and expectations match what BioWare has claimed time and again to be delivering..."

    Heh, that's not a "prognostication" its more like "History".  :-P  What remains to be seen is how far BioWare will go to try and please Everyone!?!  (I wonder why everyone, except Developers, realize that you can't please Everyone... Even part of the time!)

  • RabiatorRabiator Member Posts: 358

    After following Jump Gate Evolution and similar games for quite a while (because I'd really enjoy a good action MMO), I think Bill is far too optimistic about JGE because

    • I don't think the lawsuit will be settled THAT quickly, and  even if it is, someone still has to finish the game. If JGE launches before 2012, I'll be surprised.

    • Even before the lawsuit, it was known that the economy and crafting part of the game would be much simplified compared to the original plans. This makes JGE more similar to Black Prophecy and puts the two games in closer competition. BP will almost certainly launch earlier and might steal away a bunch of customers.

    • There is a third, similar game in development (Taikodom) which may split the target audience further.

    Overall, I think JGE is in danger of becoming one of those small games that eventually die from a lack of revenue. And I'm not even sure if I care anymore, since there seems not much more left than a space shooter.

  • ShredderSEShredderSE Member Posts: 197

    SWTOR will be 2011 biggest fail.

  • lmollealmollea Member UncommonPosts: 40

    Agree with most of them, but only with a minor change: DCUO will become the most succesfull Superhero MMO mostly because of its PS3 audience.

    PC wise, COH/COV will still be stronger.

  • catlanacatlana Member Posts: 1,677

    SWToR will be a huge hit, just not with the Old Hardcore MMO crowd based on my experiences. Bioware games are a very cinematic experience, those players that do not like Bioware games will most likely not like SWToR. 

  • ProfRedProfRed Member UncommonPosts: 3,494

    Overall really nice predictions.  I am hopeful that you are right about Earthrise.  After being hit with so many clones including Rift I am worried that GW2 and TOR will come out at the end of the year leaving not much to play for most of the year.

    Tera I have high hopes for, but I am very skeptical.  Earthrise is one title I could see myself getting into with a small launch crowd and playing for a solid year as it grew like I did with EVE at launch.  I really hope it has that potential and growth power. 

    Luckily DCUO is a breath of fresh air so I can play that mixed with Earthrise until something else comes along.  It is too bad though that they aren't mixing servers.  I think the PS3 version will stumble if they don't make some big changes.

  • rage9345rage9345 Member Posts: 2

    Agree with some of the predictions. I hope you're right about DCUO, I had a good amount of fun playing it the last 3 days of beta, and hope it does well. Only thing I find myself disagreeing with is TOR's release date, Bioware is better than most companies with release dates. If they say it'll be ready by the spring, I'd trust them. Hell, they're the only company I trust to make a game which won't suck, they haven't let me down yet. Which makes me ask: what's up with all the pessimism/ hate toward TOR on this site from users? The prediction that the game will have a large number of detractors looks true enough already.

  • comerbcomerb Member UncommonPosts: 944

    I'll bet you a fish taco that  DCUO will start fast and die faster... and that Rift will start well and maintain.

     

    Rift is a deep game.  It will retain players.  It might not ever be huge, because its not really that amazingly unique or different overall, but its a deep game w/ solid mechanics, and it will do well at grabbing and retaining players.

    DCUO is ... well its not deep.  And a significant portion of its market is console gamers, who are both irritated w/ the idea of paying a subscription... and not particularly known for staying w/ a single game for any great length of time.  It will burn through subscribers like a wildfire, and end up being less successful than CoX (and even a F2P CO).

  • comerbcomerb Member UncommonPosts: 944

    Originally posted by XavierDragen

    "BioWare's first foray into the MMO market will launch to much fanfare in the end of 2011."

    To the author. The only time frame ever given by BioWare or EA for SWTOR has been Q1 FY 2012 aka Spring 2011. EA's Fiscal Year 2012 runs from April 1, 2011 - March 31, 2012. Making the launch window APR/MAY/JUN 2011. Why do people keep on saying it will come out at the end of 2011? This was recently reaffirmed by BioWare's Daniel Erickson (Senior Writer/Lead Game Designer on TOR)  on G4TV's XPlay and by Eric Brown, EA VP at the UBS Media and Communications Conference.

    For more insight on when TOR will launch, pay attention to the next EA shareholder conference call www.investor.ea.com which I believe is scheduled for FEB 1, 2011. This call will layout EA's stragtegy for the coming Fiscal Year and include a schedule of major titles organized by quarter.

    The game has been in testing since late June. No major MMO has a had a beta test over 8 months. If SWTOR comes out in MAY 11, that would be a 10 month beta test. That would be 2 months longer than any previous MMO.

    Are people just assuming it will be delayed? Call me crazy, but I thought reporters were supposed to report facts. If you're giving you're opinion that it will be delayed, shouldn't you say so, and not report your opinion as if it were fact?

    SWTOR won't come out in the 4th quarter of 2011 specifically because it won't want to compete with Diablo 3.  Even if the game is "delayed", it will either be delayed til Fall (cause summer sucks for MMOs), or sometime in early spring of 2012.

  • GamedoctorGamedoctor Member Posts: 10

    "

    BETHESDA WILL ANNOUNCE AN ONLINE ELDER SCROLLS

    Not content with ruling the open-world RPG space, Bethesda will announce that the next Elder Scrolls game won’t simply be a sequel to Oblivion, but their own first foray into the MMO industry. It will delight players who are looking for a less directed experience, and will have a release date of less than a year from its announcement. The downside? It will still look like aged doo-doo."

     

    Nope. With Elder Scrolls 5 coming out they would be fools to announce something else entirely.

     

    Though with innevitable decline of Warcraft's true fantasy, I would totally love some old school DND meets Everquest meets Elder Scrolls action. Just no voiceovers please. Save your money.

    From the streets, down to the shores they're playing

  • demiqusdemiqus Member Posts: 14

    The biggest news for me is that John Smedley (ceo of soe)revealed that there is Planetside Next /2 on the horizon , he stated march 2011 , so I'm hoping thats when first official details are revealed publicly.

    Thats all that I need to give me a nice warm glow inside for this year, the rest on the list is just stuffing to the lovely huge turkey roast I'm eagerly awaiting now.

    The game was 10 years ahead of its time when it released , now its time to give the world what it really needs , a proper MMOFPS for those who are tired of all the fantasy stuff that keeps regurgitating over and over . The world as far as I'm concerned is ready for this, I just really hope they can deliver this time .

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