Lies! You read it all. Just can't face the facts that you can't predict your own "shit" or anything in development.
Let's just say, I'm not a hater or a lover of the game "right now", you wanna why? huh? do ya? STFU I'm going to tell you anyways.... BECAUSE IT HASN'T COME OUT YET!
I think you're way over board and obviously taking things to personal Immortal. I have been a member of MMORPG a long time and usually the consensce of a games success is (at least initial success) is correct, and this is part of the process of coming to that concecus. That being said I agree that with this particular game, without knowing much about it's game play it seems that it has a chance of being a huge success. Until we know more about the game itself I don't know what can be said other then how can a game with a popular IP, with a built in following as a popular gaming series, made by a company known as one of the best developers in the buisness not have a chance at a million subs.
1. No North american MMO has had even 2 million sales at release, regardless if it's starwars or bioware, not even WoW broke 1 million release sales in NA.
2. You can't base their pc only games estimated sales on games that were console and pc. (I'm guessing that's why you think they will sell more than 2 million)
3. Not all bioware/star wars fans are into MMOs.
4. Sci-fi games aren't as popular as fantasy.
Your wrong, wrong and wrong.
WOW did have 1 million sales upon release (release being through the world release period Nov-Jan). People who are star wars/bioware fans mostly won't care if it's MMO or not, WOW proved this to be true. Si-fi games are atually more popular then fantasy games; fantasy MMO's have been more popular, but that could be for other factors other then the genre. I'm not saying that it will have a million subs; I'm just saying it has a lot going for it based upon it's following and without knowing more about the game itself the only reason to beleive it won't is that other games without the same type of folowing havn't had a million subs.
Got a source? I remember WoW launching in the EU Feb 2005 and China in June 2005. It didn't have 1 million NA subs until August 2005.
Just to give you an idea, WoW had only sold 700k copies up to the EU launch in Feb. So you were wrong there. If you want to take initial sales of the game from both launches first weekend it would be 730k, still not 1 million. By March NA had 800k and EU has 500k, both slowing in sales considerably.
You're kidding about Star Wars and Bioware fans too right? Over 90% of them are console gamers from their recent sales figures of DAO and ME2. So a good bit would have to get a decent gaming PC and on top of that a lot of them won't play a MMO. I'm guessing you weren't around when SWTOR was announced but a stupid amount of people on general gaming sites posted their unhapiness that it wasn't KotOR 3 and how they won't play a MMO or PC games.
As for Sci-fi being less popular, many have tried and just don't catch on. I don't know if its the guns/lasers believability or maybe magic, but they just never strike it rich. That doesn't mean they can't but it's an uphill battle.
As much as SWTOR has going for it, it also has just as much going against it. Star Wars fans are super critical and if the lore is treated wrong they won't stand for it. Bioware fans won't stand for grinding mechanics that typically keep people playing MMO's and once the story ends they will leave. Remember that Blizzards fanbase was made up of multiplayer fans where Bioware/Star Wars fans are usually into solo experiences.
I think SWTOR will pull another WAR/AOC. They will sell 1.5million globaly then drop quickly in subs between release and the 6 month mark.
I think it is just hype used for creating buzz and publicity. I seriously doubt they need a million subs at once to break even. More likely they are mincing words and mean they need a million subs over the life of the game each keeping subbed for 2-4 months to break even. A misleading play on words designed to create buzz and lift expectations. No game can or should expect to break a million subs when only one game currently has more than 200k total western subs. Especially a sci fi game of all things.
Just to give you an idea, WoW had only sold 700k copies up to the EU launch in Feb. So you were wrong there. If you want to take initial sales of the game from both launches first weekend it would be 730k, still not 1 million. By March NA had 800k and EU has 500k, both slowing in sales considerably.
You're kidding about Star Wars and Bioware fans too right? Over 90% of them are console gamers from their recent sales figures of DAO and ME2. So a good bit would have to get a decent gaming PC and on top of that a lot of them won't play a MMO. I'm guessing you weren't around when SWTOR was announced but a stupid amount of people on general gaming sites posted their unhapiness that it wasn't KotOR 3 and how they won't play a MMO or PC games.
As for Sci-fi being less popular, many have tried and just don't catch on. I don't know if its the guns/lasers believability or maybe magic, but they just never strike it rich. That doesn't mean they can't but it's an uphill battle.
As much as SWTOR has going for it, it also has just as much going against it. Star Wars fans are super critical and if the lore is treated wrong they won't stand for it. Bioware fans won't stand for grinding mechanics that typically keep people playing MMO's and once the story ends they will leave. Remember that Blizzards fanbase was made up of multiplayer fans where Bioware/Star Wars fans are usually into solo experiences.
I think SWTOR will pull another WAR/AOC. They will sell 1.5million globaly then drop quickly in subs between release and the 6 month mark.
DO you have a source that 90% of the KOTOR are console gamers? And reguardless, since the game was out for months before it was released for the PC of course the numbers are higher. Your trying to suggest that there isn't a significan't crossover between consol gamers and computer gamers and that's absurd; partiularly when you reason that many of those fans are older now and more likely to have acess to comptuers.
I think that sci-fi being less popular has more to do with a combination of factors. First that the first MMO's are based off MUDS (which were primarily based off DND) and so gain notarity as fantasy games. As a result there are more fanatay MMOs in general (so more of them are successful). As well as I don't particulary agree that si-fi MMOs haven't been sucessful. SWG, AO, EVE, have all been some of the highest rated/subbed MMO's at times during their runs and given that there are less sci-fi MMO's probably a higher percentage of them have been successful.
It really seems like you keep throwing BS out because of a particular biased then anything else. All your arguments you present are about why SWTOR won't generate interest and then you predict that they will sell 1.5 mil copys. So in your own prediction you contradict your arguments. Obviously if you think it will sell 1.5 million copy's the interst is there the question is if they will keep the subs (whih I have said all along). Then you continue by saying that they won't keep the subs, but you don't actually present arguments for that conlusion. Without being trite, I think you need to take some time and revaluate your logic.
I want the game to succeed and I want to play it but they're dreaming if they think they're gonna get 1 million subs past the first month.
What are they riding on that they think they're game will retain more subs than any other released in the last 5 years?
At most they'll probably get 2 million box sales at release.
MMOs usually have like a 30% retention rate?
1 million subs is not going to happen but I hope they don't pull the plug because of it.
1 nillion subs of mmo players not going to happen , why cause mmo players were never bigger then 2 million .
Till WoW came , they brought there battlenet community .
So how do you get that number then ?
We are talking here starwars fans and bioware fans .
WTF are you saying , we are not important ?
Sadly we are just a drop in a bucket compared to what bioware fans are . and most of the fans already established on mmo games . so will they drop there product and run to SWOTR , truth nope , will they ad SWOTR to the product . YES
ITs different generation the MMO players , most of us can easily afford 2-3 paid subscription a month .
1. No North american MMO has had even 2 million sales at release, regardless if it's starwars or bioware, not even WoW broke 1 million release sales in NA.
2. You can't base their pc only games estimated sales on games that were console and pc. (I'm guessing that's why you think they will sell more than 2 million)
3. Not all bioware/star wars fans are into MMOs.
4. Sci-fi games aren't as popular as fantasy.
There are a lot of star wars and bioware fans but by no measure does that mean this game will be more successful than any other MMO.
It's kindof like SE and final fantasy. There are a lot of fans for both but thier newest game isn't doing the best.
The only thing they are betting on is grabbing players from WoW, which is going to be one hard sale as WoW has had 6 years to become what it is now and Bioware has to make something comparable at RELEASE or they risk sending the majority of their target audience back to their old game.
Here is the thing, they need 1 million subs worldwide, not just in NA.
Worldwide Mass Effect 2 has sold 8 million.
In the US Dragon Age sold 3.2 million and its worldwide number is above Mass Effect 2.
SWTOR's voice acting will be localized. So it will be in German, French, etc because they are targeting a worldwide audience. Not just the US.
SWTOR will probably sell around 1-3 million in its first 3 months in the US. I expect at least 5-6 million Worldwide for box sales. There is no reason they cannot get 1 million worldwide subscribers for a year.
So yeah, the US sub base could be 300k and they can still hit the 1 million mark.
There is no way for MMO today to get more than 1 million subscribers.
WOW subscription numbers are exception , because WOW is not MMO its cultural phenomenon. Like Facebook. Its one time deal , after that people move on - but not to another MMO (and especially not one like WOW).
For MMO to get any larger piece of subscription pie , they need to make something completely different.
But whatever SWTOR is doing is not enough different from WOW.
I am sorry , voice acting is not enough.
So you're saying that Star Wars isn't as popular as Warcraft? I wonder how many people playing WoW are Star Wars fans. I would imagine quite a bit, since it is still an icon. If there are two games (WoW and TOR) that have similar gameplay but one adds an immersing story, more zones (planets) to explore, a reason to play different classes (we all do it eventually) and the Star Wars theme throughout... I would think TOR would be the better choice here.
I think they'll hit their break-even pretty easily just going by that alone, not adding the rest of the Bioware fans or the Star Wars fans just waiting for something else Star Wars to come out.
you are forgetting time invested, "most" people wont leave WoW to start fresh in an uncertain game when they have guilds/achievements/wtv else WoW has (sry i dont play wow so i dont know what you guys invest time in)
i think it will be more of a
"why play a game that feels and works like WoW, instead of the real WoW?"
You know, I've had that feeling for the previous games that I've left for (Aion, Warhammer, went back to SWG for a while). I know that feeling all to well. The "time invested" part, I don't agree with that though. Most of the things you "invest" in WoW is just brainless grind either in battlegrounds or dungeons. That time, to me, is worth throwing away if it means that I can play something that seems like it's more meaningful.
When you make a new toon in WoW, it's the same quests with different abilities. TOR, as we know, all classes are going to have different stories/quests with different choices to make. I love the thought of that alone. Much less that it's a Star Wars game with Bioware in charge.
I left the WoW ship May of this year and I haven't looked back since, not even Cataclysm is going to bring me back. It's the same thing over and over, rehashing content. I'm done with WoW, I just figure that there are more like me that has been watching TOR intently.
I'm in the same boat as you. I recently quit WoW (Just weeks ago) and have no intention of coming back even with Cata coming out. Even when I played WoW I knew the minute TOR comes out I'd be canceling my WoW sub and jumping on TOR.
I want the game to succeed and I want to play it but they're dreaming if they think they're gonna get 1 million subs past the first month.
What are they riding on that they think they're game will retain more subs than any other released in the last 5 years?
At most they'll probably get 2 million box sales at release.
MMOs usually have like a 30% retention rate?
1 million subs is not going to happen but I hope they don't pull the plug because of it.
1 nillion subs of mmo players not going to happen , why cause mmo players were never bigger then 2 million .
Till WoW came , they brought there battlenet community .
So how do you get that number then ?
We are talking here starwars fans and bioware fans .
WTF are you saying , we are not important ?
Sadly we are just a drop in a bucket compared to what bioware fans are . and most of the fans already established on mmo games . so will they drop there product and run to SWOTR , truth nope , will they ad SWOTR to the product . YES
ITs different generation the MMO players , most of us can easily afford 2-3 paid subscription a month .
1. No North american MMO has had even 2 million sales at release, regardless if it's starwars or bioware, not even WoW broke 1 million release sales in NA.
2. You can't base their pc only games estimated sales on games that were console and pc. (I'm guessing that's why you think they will sell more than 2 million)
3. Not all bioware/star wars fans are into MMOs.
4. Sci-fi games aren't as popular as fantasy.
There are a lot of star wars and bioware fans but by no measure does that mean this game will be more successful than any other MMO.
It's kindof like SE and final fantasy. There are a lot of fans for both but thier newest game isn't doing the best.
The only thing they are betting on is grabbing players from WoW, which is going to be one hard sale as WoW has had 6 years to become what it is now and Bioware has to make something comparable at RELEASE or they risk sending the majority of their target audience back to their old game.
Here is the thing, they need 1 million subs worldwide, not just in NA.
Worldwide Mass Effect 2 has sold 8 million.
In the US Dragon Age sold 3.2 million and its worldwide number is above Mass Effect 2.
SWTOR's voice acting will be localized. So it will be in German, French, etc because they are targeting a worldwide audience. Not just the US.
SWTOR will probably sell around 1-3 million in its first 3 months in the US. I expect at least 5-6 million Worldwide for box sales. There is no reason they cannot get 1 million worldwide subscribers for a year.
So yeah, the US sub base could be 300k and they can still hit the 1 million mark.
US=/=only market
A lot of idiots in this thread.
console+PC releases have no bearing on a PC ONLY game's estimated sales. And if you failed to notice which apparently you did, I said AT RELEASE which means release day.
There's no way a PC only game, a MMO no less, will reach the console+PC sales figures which you seem to think at release, or even within the first 3 months.
Is it hard to understand that the MAJORITY of those sales on mass effect and dragon age were console sales?
With the average MMO retention rate they need around 3.5 million box sales.
Look at their PC only sales if you want a better guess as to whether or not that's going to happen.
I want the game to succeed and I want to play it but they're dreaming if they think they're gonna get 1 million subs past the first month.
What are they riding on that they think they're game will retain more subs than any other released in the last 5 years?
At most they'll probably get 2 million box sales at release.
MMOs usually have like a 30% retention rate?
1 million subs is not going to happen but I hope they don't pull the plug because of it.
1 nillion subs of mmo players not going to happen , why cause mmo players were never bigger then 2 million .
Till WoW came , they brought there battlenet community .
So how do you get that number then ?
We are talking here starwars fans and bioware fans .
WTF are you saying , we are not important ?
Sadly we are just a drop in a bucket compared to what bioware fans are . and most of the fans already established on mmo games . so will they drop there product and run to SWOTR , truth nope , will they ad SWOTR to the product . YES
ITs different generation the MMO players , most of us can easily afford 2-3 paid subscription a month .
1. No North american MMO has had even 2 million sales at release, regardless if it's starwars or bioware, not even WoW broke 1 million release sales in NA.
2. You can't base their pc only games estimated sales on games that were console and pc. (I'm guessing that's why you think they will sell more than 2 million)
3. Not all bioware/star wars fans are into MMOs.
4. Sci-fi games aren't as popular as fantasy.
There are a lot of star wars and bioware fans but by no measure does that mean this game will be more successful than any other MMO.
It's kindof like SE and final fantasy. There are a lot of fans for both but thier newest game isn't doing the best.
The only thing they are betting on is grabbing players from WoW, which is going to be one hard sale as WoW has had 6 years to become what it is now and Bioware has to make something comparable at RELEASE or they risk sending the majority of their target audience back to their old game.
The perception that NA rules the MMO market has already been proven wrong .
Asia has there own mmo market thats bigger then NA (you can count hawai and australia to it)
Sorry you can check the data on Lineage EQ2 and other things pre wow , those statistic and facts are on the internet.
Pre wow the mmo population was small very small indeed , Europe didnt really open up to the MMO market till WoW came.
Those are things you can simply use your internet google to research about .
IF SWOTR game is only slated for NA it wouldn´t even break even , it would be a huge lost of time and investment .
IF wow would only judge bye NA the subscriber base would maybe just peak at 2 million nothing more and nothing less.
Wouldn´t even validate the expensive headquarters and manpower in Europe Paris .
Sorry the idea that MMO are targeted at NA community is long gone , yes that its primary in english that part is true .
But wow doesn´t get most of its subscribers from NA alone .
I'm still assuming that the budget for this game is the same one that was confirmed a long time ago. 150 million NOT 300 million. Until we see something more credible to confirm this new number which has seemingly come out of nowhere.....
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There is no way for MMO today to get more than 1 million subscribers.
WOW subscription numbers are exception , because WOW is not MMO its cultural phenomenon. Like Facebook. Its one time deal , after that people move on - but not to another MMO (and especially not one like WOW).
For MMO to get any larger piece of subscription pie , they need to make something completely different.
But whatever SWTOR is doing is not enough different from WOW.
I am sorry , voice acting is not enough.
So you're saying that Star Wars isn't as popular as Warcraft? I wonder how many people playing WoW are Star Wars fans. I would imagine quite a bit, since it is still an icon. If there are two games (WoW and TOR) that have similar gameplay but one adds an immersing story, more zones (planets) to explore, a reason to play different classes (we all do it eventually) and the Star Wars theme throughout... I would think TOR would be the better choice here.
I think they'll hit their break-even pretty easily just going by that alone, not adding the rest of the Bioware fans or the Star Wars fans just waiting for something else Star Wars to come out.
Converting fans into sub numbers is not necessarily an easy job. Also alot of families play wow, it attracts all ages my wife enjoys wow, she sees star wars games as more of a geek male thing. Everyone seems to be forgetting one thing and that is that even if SWOT steals some sub numbers you think that blizzard will sit on their asses and watch nop they will work hard to keep them.
I want the game to succeed and I want to play it but they're dreaming if they think they're gonna get 1 million subs past the first month.
What are they riding on that they think they're game will retain more subs than any other released in the last 5 years?
At most they'll probably get 2 million box sales at release.
MMOs usually have like a 30% retention rate?
1 million subs is not going to happen but I hope they don't pull the plug because of it.
1 nillion subs of mmo players not going to happen , why cause mmo players were never bigger then 2 million .
Till WoW came , they brought there battlenet community .
So how do you get that number then ?
We are talking here starwars fans and bioware fans .
WTF are you saying , we are not important ?
Sadly we are just a drop in a bucket compared to what bioware fans are . and most of the fans already established on mmo games . so will they drop there product and run to SWOTR , truth nope , will they ad SWOTR to the product . YES
ITs different generation the MMO players , most of us can easily afford 2-3 paid subscription a month .
1. No North american MMO has had even 2 million sales at release, regardless if it's starwars or bioware, not even WoW broke 1 million release sales in NA.
2. You can't base their pc only games estimated sales on games that were console and pc. (I'm guessing that's why you think they will sell more than 2 million)
3. Not all bioware/star wars fans are into MMOs.
4. Sci-fi games aren't as popular as fantasy.
There are a lot of star wars and bioware fans but by no measure does that mean this game will be more successful than any other MMO.
It's kindof like SE and final fantasy. There are a lot of fans for both but thier newest game isn't doing the best.
The only thing they are betting on is grabbing players from WoW, which is going to be one hard sale as WoW has had 6 years to become what it is now and Bioware has to make something comparable at RELEASE or they risk sending the majority of their target audience back to their old game.
Here is the thing, they need 1 million subs worldwide, not just in NA.
Worldwide Mass Effect 2 has sold 8 million.
In the US Dragon Age sold 3.2 million and its worldwide number is above Mass Effect 2.
SWTOR's voice acting will be localized. So it will be in German, French, etc because they are targeting a worldwide audience. Not just the US.
SWTOR will probably sell around 1-3 million in its first 3 months in the US. I expect at least 5-6 million Worldwide for box sales. There is no reason they cannot get 1 million worldwide subscribers for a year.
So yeah, the US sub base could be 300k and they can still hit the 1 million mark.
US=/=only market
[Mod Edit]
Please cite your sources. I read that Dragon Age Origins sold 3.2 million copies world wide and not US and the only data I have found for Mass Effect 2 is that it sold 2 million copies in the first week of the release.
And then taking into account that this game is an MMORPG, and as such has a smaller customer base, I find the 5-6 million copies sold extremely unlikely.
Based on the numbers I have seen and the fact that it is an MMORPG I think a more reasonable estimate is closer to 1.5 million copies sold worldwide. And assuming a 25% retention, ~400k subscribers is probably what it will hold at world wide.
And to be honest, Bioware should be content with that.
I want the game to succeed and I want to play it but they're dreaming if they think they're gonna get 1 million subs past the first month.
What are they riding on that they think they're game will retain more subs than any other released in the last 5 years?
At most they'll probably get 2 million box sales at release.
MMOs usually have like a 30% retention rate?
1 million subs is not going to happen but I hope they don't pull the plug because of it.
1 nillion subs of mmo players not going to happen , why cause mmo players were never bigger then 2 million .
Till WoW came , they brought there battlenet community .
So how do you get that number then ?
We are talking here starwars fans and bioware fans .
WTF are you saying , we are not important ?
Sadly we are just a drop in a bucket compared to what bioware fans are . and most of the fans already established on mmo games . so will they drop there product and run to SWOTR , truth nope , will they ad SWOTR to the product . YES
ITs different generation the MMO players , most of us can easily afford 2-3 paid subscription a month .
1. No North american MMO has had even 2 million sales at release, regardless if it's starwars or bioware, not even WoW broke 1 million release sales in NA.
2. You can't base their pc only games estimated sales on games that were console and pc. (I'm guessing that's why you think they will sell more than 2 million)
3. Not all bioware/star wars fans are into MMOs.
4. Sci-fi games aren't as popular as fantasy.
There are a lot of star wars and bioware fans but by no measure does that mean this game will be more successful than any other MMO.
It's kindof like SE and final fantasy. There are a lot of fans for both but thier newest game isn't doing the best.
The only thing they are betting on is grabbing players from WoW, which is going to be one hard sale as WoW has had 6 years to become what it is now and Bioware has to make something comparable at RELEASE or they risk sending the majority of their target audience back to their old game.
Here is the thing, they need 1 million subs worldwide, not just in NA.
Worldwide Mass Effect 2 has sold 8 million.
In the US Dragon Age sold 3.2 million and its worldwide number is above Mass Effect 2.
SWTOR's voice acting will be localized. So it will be in German, French, etc because they are targeting a worldwide audience. Not just the US.
SWTOR will probably sell around 1-3 million in its first 3 months in the US. I expect at least 5-6 million Worldwide for box sales. There is no reason they cannot get 1 million worldwide subscribers for a year.
So yeah, the US sub base could be 300k and they can still hit the 1 million mark.
US=/=only market
A lot of idiots in this thread.
console+PC releases have no bearing on a PC ONLY game's estimated sales. And if you failed to notice which apparently you did, I said AT RELEASE which means release day.
There's no way a PC only game, a MMO no less, will reach the console+PC sales figures which you seem to think at release, or even within the first 3 months.
Is it hard to understand that the MAJORITY of those sales on mass effect and dragon age were console sales?
With the average MMO retention rate they need around 3.5 million box sales.
Look at their PC only sales if you want a better guess as to whether or not that's going to happen.
EA and Bioware will never make a profit with the release of Star Wars: The Old Republic, according to Bigpoint CEO Heiko Hubertz. Speaking at the London Games Conference, Hubertz said that micro-transactions were the only viable way to make money out of online gaming and that subscription-based games such as Bioware's forthcoming role-playing game had a huge mountain to climb in order to succeed.
According to Hubertz, who heads up one of the world's biggest free-to-play games sites, The Old Republic - which is rumoured to have cost in excess of $100 million to develop - would need over a million active subscribers over an extended period of time for EA to break even, but doubts that will actually happen. He also claimed that the subscription model was fundamentally flawed, stating that micro-transactions were the only real way to efficiently monetise an online game, providing it's done properly.
Heiko also believes the future of full-priced retail games could also be in jeopardy, claiming that huge games that cost millions of dollars to develop must make their money back within the first two to three months otherwise they're deemed a failure - and few games ever manage to achieve this.
They really arn't doing a lot of calculations right there. Adverage game box for normal mmo = $50, collectors eddition = $100. Then you get maybe one month out of all your subscribers if the game is good from the get go and long enough to keep them playing into month two. Monthly sub $15 dollars.
With only 1million buyers you start from launch with 50million, assumming a debt of 300 million it would take over a year and a half of subs at the million mark to pay that off while still covering the day to day cost of the mmo. I am seriously doubting this game cost as much as people think. The old 300 million line comes from some guy years ago saying it would take 300 mil to unseat wow. Could I see a million plus box sales in this games future, when you calculate sales in europe, america, and other countries with english speakers that get it off ebay, sure I can. I can also see collectors ed sales into the several thousands mark.
But short of insane ammounts of additional content for players to buy there is just no way this game could kill a 300 million dollar paycheck. Also I think it will at least get the numbers it says it wants for the first few months, if it has any length of play time from start to end it will hold the origional box sales for a bit.
Lastly this is a good thing, if they are preping their servers for a million plus players we won't face as much lag on the launch days and queing should be minimal at best.
If they sell 10 million units they could have 0 subscribers for a long time. With their budget of 150million they really only have to sell about 2 million units and maintain around 700k subscribers.
Comments
I think you're way over board and obviously taking things to personal Immortal. I have been a member of MMORPG a long time and usually the consensce of a games success is (at least initial success) is correct, and this is part of the process of coming to that concecus. That being said I agree that with this particular game, without knowing much about it's game play it seems that it has a chance of being a huge success. Until we know more about the game itself I don't know what can be said other then how can a game with a popular IP, with a built in following as a popular gaming series, made by a company known as one of the best developers in the buisness not have a chance at a million subs.
Got a source? I remember WoW launching in the EU Feb 2005 and China in June 2005. It didn't have 1 million NA subs until August 2005.
http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=14638
Just to give you an idea, WoW had only sold 700k copies up to the EU launch in Feb. So you were wrong there. If you want to take initial sales of the game from both launches first weekend it would be 730k, still not 1 million. By March NA had 800k and EU has 500k, both slowing in sales considerably.
You're kidding about Star Wars and Bioware fans too right? Over 90% of them are console gamers from their recent sales figures of DAO and ME2. So a good bit would have to get a decent gaming PC and on top of that a lot of them won't play a MMO. I'm guessing you weren't around when SWTOR was announced but a stupid amount of people on general gaming sites posted their unhapiness that it wasn't KotOR 3 and how they won't play a MMO or PC games.
As for Sci-fi being less popular, many have tried and just don't catch on. I don't know if its the guns/lasers believability or maybe magic, but they just never strike it rich. That doesn't mean they can't but it's an uphill battle.
As much as SWTOR has going for it, it also has just as much going against it. Star Wars fans are super critical and if the lore is treated wrong they won't stand for it. Bioware fans won't stand for grinding mechanics that typically keep people playing MMO's and once the story ends they will leave. Remember that Blizzards fanbase was made up of multiplayer fans where Bioware/Star Wars fans are usually into solo experiences.
I think SWTOR will pull another WAR/AOC. They will sell 1.5million globaly then drop quickly in subs between release and the 6 month mark.
this
http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=14638 It's a forum, but the numbers are collaborated by the other forum members without any deension and the posts were made during the games actual release.
DO you have a source that 90% of the KOTOR are console gamers? And reguardless, since the game was out for months before it was released for the PC of course the numbers are higher. Your trying to suggest that there isn't a significan't crossover between consol gamers and computer gamers and that's absurd; partiularly when you reason that many of those fans are older now and more likely to have acess to comptuers.
I think that sci-fi being less popular has more to do with a combination of factors. First that the first MMO's are based off MUDS (which were primarily based off DND) and so gain notarity as fantasy games. As a result there are more fanatay MMOs in general (so more of them are successful). As well as I don't particulary agree that si-fi MMOs haven't been sucessful. SWG, AO, EVE, have all been some of the highest rated/subbed MMO's at times during their runs and given that there are less sci-fi MMO's probably a higher percentage of them have been successful.
It really seems like you keep throwing BS out because of a particular biased then anything else. All your arguments you present are about why SWTOR won't generate interest and then you predict that they will sell 1.5 mil copys. So in your own prediction you contradict your arguments. Obviously if you think it will sell 1.5 million copy's the interst is there the question is if they will keep the subs (whih I have said all along). Then you continue by saying that they won't keep the subs, but you don't actually present arguments for that conlusion. Without being trite, I think you need to take some time and revaluate your logic.
Here is the thing, they need 1 million subs worldwide, not just in NA.
Worldwide Mass Effect 2 has sold 8 million.
In the US Dragon Age sold 3.2 million and its worldwide number is above Mass Effect 2.
SWTOR's voice acting will be localized. So it will be in German, French, etc because they are targeting a worldwide audience. Not just the US.
SWTOR will probably sell around 1-3 million in its first 3 months in the US. I expect at least 5-6 million Worldwide for box sales. There is no reason they cannot get 1 million worldwide subscribers for a year.
So yeah, the US sub base could be 300k and they can still hit the 1 million mark.
US=/=only market
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I'm in the same boat as you. I recently quit WoW (Just weeks ago) and have no intention of coming back even with Cata coming out. Even when I played WoW I knew the minute TOR comes out I'd be canceling my WoW sub and jumping on TOR.
console+PC releases have no bearing on a PC ONLY game's estimated sales. And if you failed to notice which apparently you did, I said AT RELEASE which means release day.
There's no way a PC only game, a MMO no less, will reach the console+PC sales figures which you seem to think at release, or even within the first 3 months.
Is it hard to understand that the MAJORITY of those sales on mass effect and dragon age were console sales?
With the average MMO retention rate they need around 3.5 million box sales.
Look at their PC only sales if you want a better guess as to whether or not that's going to happen.
Also, where's your source on the sales figures?
The perception that NA rules the MMO market has already been proven wrong .
Asia has there own mmo market thats bigger then NA (you can count hawai and australia to it)
Sorry you can check the data on Lineage EQ2 and other things pre wow , those statistic and facts are on the internet.
Pre wow the mmo population was small very small indeed , Europe didnt really open up to the MMO market till WoW came.
Those are things you can simply use your internet google to research about .
IF SWOTR game is only slated for NA it wouldn´t even break even , it would be a huge lost of time and investment .
IF wow would only judge bye NA the subscriber base would maybe just peak at 2 million nothing more and nothing less.
Wouldn´t even validate the expensive headquarters and manpower in Europe Paris .
Sorry the idea that MMO are targeted at NA community is long gone , yes that its primary in english that part is true .
But wow doesn´t get most of its subscribers from NA alone .
I'm still assuming that the budget for this game is the same one that was confirmed a long time ago. 150 million NOT 300 million. Until we see something more credible to confirm this new number which has seemingly come out of nowhere.....
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Converting fans into sub numbers is not necessarily an easy job. Also alot of families play wow, it attracts all ages my wife enjoys wow, she sees star wars games as more of a geek male thing. Everyone seems to be forgetting one thing and that is that even if SWOT steals some sub numbers you think that blizzard will sit on their asses and watch nop they will work hard to keep them.
Please cite your sources. I read that Dragon Age Origins sold 3.2 million copies world wide and not US and the only data I have found for Mass Effect 2 is that it sold 2 million copies in the first week of the release.
And then taking into account that this game is an MMORPG, and as such has a smaller customer base, I find the 5-6 million copies sold extremely unlikely.
Based on the numbers I have seen and the fact that it is an MMORPG I think a more reasonable estimate is closer to 1.5 million copies sold worldwide. And assuming a 25% retention, ~400k subscribers is probably what it will hold at world wide.
And to be honest, Bioware should be content with that.
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Link please..
Anyway i think this sums it up nicely.
http://uk.pc.ign.com/articles/113/1132509p1.html
EA and Bioware will never make a profit with the release of Star Wars: The Old Republic, according to Bigpoint CEO Heiko Hubertz. Speaking at the London Games Conference, Hubertz said that micro-transactions were the only viable way to make money out of online gaming and that subscription-based games such as Bioware's forthcoming role-playing game had a huge mountain to climb in order to succeed.
According to Hubertz, who heads up one of the world's biggest free-to-play games sites, The Old Republic - which is rumoured to have cost in excess of $100 million to develop - would need over a million active subscribers over an extended period of time for EA to break even, but doubts that will actually happen. He also claimed that the subscription model was fundamentally flawed, stating that micro-transactions were the only real way to efficiently monetise an online game, providing it's done properly.
Heiko also believes the future of full-priced retail games could also be in jeopardy, claiming that huge games that cost millions of dollars to develop must make their money back within the first two to three months otherwise they're deemed a failure - and few games ever manage to achieve this.
They really arn't doing a lot of calculations right there. Adverage game box for normal mmo = $50, collectors eddition = $100. Then you get maybe one month out of all your subscribers if the game is good from the get go and long enough to keep them playing into month two. Monthly sub $15 dollars.
With only 1million buyers you start from launch with 50million, assumming a debt of 300 million it would take over a year and a half of subs at the million mark to pay that off while still covering the day to day cost of the mmo. I am seriously doubting this game cost as much as people think. The old 300 million line comes from some guy years ago saying it would take 300 mil to unseat wow. Could I see a million plus box sales in this games future, when you calculate sales in europe, america, and other countries with english speakers that get it off ebay, sure I can. I can also see collectors ed sales into the several thousands mark.
But short of insane ammounts of additional content for players to buy there is just no way this game could kill a 300 million dollar paycheck. Also I think it will at least get the numbers it says it wants for the first few months, if it has any length of play time from start to end it will hold the origional box sales for a bit.
Lastly this is a good thing, if they are preping their servers for a million plus players we won't face as much lag on the launch days and queing should be minimal at best.
If they sell 10 million units they could have 0 subscribers for a long time. With their budget of 150million they really only have to sell about 2 million units and maintain around 700k subscribers.