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So, how large will LotrO player population become after going F2P?
MMO.Maverick
Member CommonPosts: 7,619
It'c clear, after Turbine saw the huge success that it managed to get for DDO when it became F2P, they think it will have a sortlike effect on LotrO. The results are hard to argue with: DDO can claim 1 million+ active players now, and a 500% increase on their cash revenue for DDO.
It's pretty smart of them too: my guess is there's also a limited space for F2P games as well. DDO was this successful because there aren't many F2P/sub-free AAA titles around, but the more F2P AAA titles there'll be, the smaller the piece of the cake each will get. So them acting this fast upon it, is a strategic move from Turbine.
But what will the end results be for LotrO? While DDO is a good MMO game on its own, I'd say that LotrO is a class better.
So how many active players will LotrO end up after the first few months?
If DDO can reach and hold 1 million active players, I'm guessing LotrO should be able to reach and maintain a 1-1.5 million at least.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Comments
I dont think DDO have anything near 1 million active players. All they said awhile back that over 1 million had joined since going F2P and that the active subscribers more than doubled. That probably mean around 200-300k active players (just my guess).
It then all depends how well book 2 and the F2P model for LotrO turns out. LotrO maybe have 300k players in US/Eu now so perhaps they can double that. If they can keep them depends on how fast they will be adding new content after that.
If WoW = The Beatles
and WAR = Led Zeppelin
Then LotrO = Pink Floyd
I think LotRo can become very big with the new F2P model. Reason being that you're not bound to a subscription, so you can play whenever you want. Looking at DDO's (xfire) activity before and after and after going F2P the numbers have doubled at least.
When more developers will do this kind of F2P for their AAA title, I think it won't influence the others too much. As said before, you can play the game without monthly subscription, so when you're bored of "yet an other end-game raid", you just switch game for a little while. When you want to come back, you can go back right where you were without paying a dime...
I think that in general most games will benefit from this F2P system. Lets hope other titles will follow shortly!
That's the thing though, Turbine is going to make what you can actually play for free w/o paying a dime very limited. So if you enjoy the game, and want to play it longer.
You will either have to-
A) Pay for more content piece by piece with micro-transaction's.
or
What Turbine is doing, is not the true sense of a F2P, like Allods for example. Where you can actually play the whole game hindered in some way.. w/o actually having to spend any money on it. It's more of a "freemium" kinda thing in a sense.
*Edit*
As for the new model they are going with. It's a good one, and worked well with DDO. And i agree this game is a lot better then DDO, so the room of gaining a lot more people is pretty huge... so it's a wait and see thing.
it will hit 1 million easy because lotro is a better game then ddo in the view of lot of player!
Every person here will have a Lotro free account.
Im calling Over 3 million f2p subs with around 300k Vips.
Playing: Rift, LotRO
Waiting on: GW2, BP
LOL at all the people who think F2P really means "free".
Come on now. Nothing has changed with the core game....at all....thats why people left in the first place. Going free to play is just a makeover for an ugly game at this point. Again, nothing has chaged to keep long time players engaged. Its repackaging for the new F2P demographic and the content development from here on out will be focused around what people will buy from their store. Wake up.
The lotro we all knew and loved is gone forever, and it most def is the egotistical developers fault for clinging to failed game and concept designs for far to long. Want to blame someone for this? Blame the developers who just would not admit radiance and the legendary item system where a failed system that they would not let go of. Developer egos ruin games, not the player base. This game is going into third shelf mode now, can some of you not see this, so they can focus on their new MMO. Lotro WILL NEVER be the same...ever.
The fact some of you can not see this says alot about the PR and spin job that Turbine has spun.
one thing is sure it will be a paradise for casual gamer! buy the next part of the game you need enjoy no pressure to progress since you didnt buy it! i think in some twisted way it is brillant.often the issue is group try to force pwerleveling
with this f2p system you progress at the pace you want without pressure.oh oit will madden elitist nut elistist are a minority
as we can see in lot of game.(farmville)its mostly casual .and only ddo and wow was casual friendly and only ddo to this level
now it will be ddo and lotro!
You are right about one thing. Lotro and Farmville are now in the same category.
I guess LOTRO is looking at 1 million players easily , with potential for many more depending on how viral/popular it will get
well , the era of the hardcore-oldskool-mmo-games are over. It's an evolution. It is not that select group of hardcore mmo gamers that make the scene anny more. MMO's are big bussiness now. The casual gamer is the future, so is the so called 'F2P' But I personnaly dont think f2p is a good term cause you only get a little bid of the whole game for free.
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waiting for ... nothing..
I figure it will increase the popualtion by 50 to 100 % easily and I I really think that will be a low ball figure. I know if I were a SOE or Funcom employee or fan I would be sweating bullets right now.
I miss DAoC
Of course it's not free, Turbine has to get their money from somewhere, it's just another cash model, where you don't have to be subbed to play. Or you can stay subbed - pay a monthly amount - for the added benefits, either way it enhances your options. About the game, there are (still) enough people who like it, so I'm expecting there'll be even more after F2P.
You're right, I looked it up again and the 1 miilion figure they mentioned was about 1 million new players since F2P for DDO.
About subs and player numbers, this is what was being said in March for DDO:
[since F2P] the peak CCU (peak concurrent users, the maximum number of players online at any given time) did go up by five times since the subscription days, monthly active players went up by ten times, and monthly revenues have risen by five times
I'm guessing that something like 1.5-2 million new LotrO players will appear, and that the monthly active players will go up to like 700k-1 million. At least in the wintermonths. As was said, it'll become a great game for the casual player to hop in to: low system requirements, great recognizable lore, family friendly and a really vast world (one of the largest ingame worlds, I think).
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
LMAO.
Really nothing more than laughing at this post.
Naaah, not really. Better for MMO players in general, this, more options in an otherwise MMO market grown stale
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
LOL 1 to 2 million players? Are you people not underatanding why the game had gone F2P??? It has exhausted all of its viable resources with failed design and content. But some how without any real change its going to now pull 1-2 million players? Some of you MUST be pulling a paycheck from Turbine.
I think your guess is a bit low. Right now LotR is said to hold almost 1M players. With these numbers we know form DDO, the numbers of LotR might even become big enough to beat Aion
No, Lol @ you: do you think LotrO will do worse than DDO when it went F2P? DDO got 1 million new players - and no, that does not mean 1 million active players, but 1 million new players since they went F2P to try out DDO.
Makes sense to me that LotrO can at least match that number of DDO, but more likely exceed it.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Holy cow! Where do some of you come up with these numbers?
Please prove me wrong and provide some link,.....any link....that says that Lotro has these numbers. Hell I will even give you a little and you show me numbers that show Lotro has 200k world wide. I will be waiting.
Its not my fault you can not detach yourself from your emotions over this to really understand the "whys and hows".
The game was ran into the ground by Turbine. Now they want to get as much value out of their prior work as they can by repackaging it and selling it a'la carte via a RMT model.
Nothing has changed in the game from the game that bled of a huge chuck of its subscriber base in NA.
How active must you be to be considered part of the player population?
10 hours each week?
A few hours each month?
To just logg in and check the trader/auction house?
Or just to have a character?
For a P2P game this is an easy figure, you just count every paying account. F2P games are different, some games like Perfect world have amazing numbers but the questionis who among them is actually an active player.
In this case: Will Turbine earn money on this or not? I guess it is likely since they did earn more on DDO.
As for actual players I think you will see an increase in players when you play, 100% in the noob zones and 25% in the higher levels are likely but those noob zones number might be a lot larger. I doubt most of those players max out their characters however.
Why would players now that is F2P all of a sudden feel like the game is great anedworthwhile? NOTHING has changed from the trainwreck of design choices that Turbine has made that has led the game to this point. So now all of a sudden F2P players will just ignore the lack of content at endgame, the insane LI grind or the stupid gear gating that had run the game and the Lotro IP into the ground? Yea that must be it. Long time fans and palyers that have been through thick and thin have given up, but "johnyy free to play" sees the merit and briliance in the game that the people who have played since launch could not
Get real.
I don't get where you think my posts have anything to do with my emotions or level of detachment: seems to me that you're the one having that problem, since you keep on ranting about LotrO instead of looking at figures objectively and rationally.
Plus you didn't answer the question: do you think LotrO will do worse than DDO did when it went F2P?
Turbine managed to pull a game that was on the brink of fading away to being healthy and having received 1 million new players. Sounds like they want that good thing to happen to LotrO too, even while it was still doing alright compared to other MMO's.
Mind you, in all my posts I wasn't saying anything about the quality of LotrO as it is now compared to 'LotrO vanilla', or whether I found Turbine was on the right path the last year with Siege of Mirkwood and such. Just guessing what the impact of going F2P will be for LotrO.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I think people would actually care about what was being said by you if your provided information based on fact, and not opinion, because frankly, you come off as a troll and nothing more. LOTRO has not by ANY means deteriorated. Yes, it lacks in the number of subscriptions it had at its peak, but by no means is dead, nor does it lack content. I've played MANY MMO's, and LOTRO to this day remains the most frequently updated game with new content with every patch. Yes, they've slowed down on their patch releases since Mines of Moria, but I think the new model will only increase that.
I've played LOTRO for 3 years now, and it is one of few games I have ever played that never resulted in server merges as a result to compensate for the subs they had been losing. That being said, its safe to say that LOTRO has been doing well, or atleast well enough. As Turbine does not and most likely will not release their subscription info, this can only be speculated however. But to say that the game is a trainwreck of design choices, that has led a game, (a great game, mind you) into the ground, when it is clearly doing well.... Well sir, you are either delusional, or a troll who wants to rant about their LOTRO experience not being what they wanted it to be.
As far as the F2P model goes, I think Turbine made this choice, not because LOTRO had ran dry, but because upon seeing the success of DDO's F2P model, it seemed to be the best way to make more cash out of their game. Greedy? Maybe, but their a business afterall, so what do you expect?
LOTRO had a rocky start, but it has been updated time and time again that today's LOTRO is not anything close to what it was on release. Saying that it lacks content, has no value, and furthermore, that LOTRO's Long time players who've been through Thick and Thin have given up? Thats just untrue, this coming from one of those long time vets, who have remained with the game through thick and thin since Beta.
Go away. Nobody likes a troll.
You call me a troll, then say I have to back up my opinons with fact, then you turn around and give an opinion with no citatations either, pot calling the kettle black, to funny.
Like I said in another post, some of Lotro's biggest fans will have a hard time coming to terms with "why" the game is where its at at this point, you I guess are one of them.
Maybe a little more people playing, I for one am not going to play. It was crap when I payed to play and it doesnt change a thing for me that its f2p. I would rather p2p for an mmo, just too bad there is no mmo that I feel like spending a sub on. Since most of them is either crap, boring clone, low subs or boring in the sense that I played it too much or enough not wanting to play it again.
Short answer : Lotro being f2p dont change anything for me.