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Subscriptions to rise : logical
camp11111
Member Posts: 602
With WOW being officially approved in China since Feb 12th and CATA reintroducing Azeroth to newbies and oldies, it is evident the subscriptions will rise. Certainly with the end of the economic crisis in view.
As the 1 to 60 lvl content will be completely new to everyone - even for the basic WOW box and new players - I forsee a big boost in subs.
The absence of decent alternatives in 2010 makes for a rather predictable statement.
Present day subs = 11.5 M
Return of China officially = X M extra the moment Wotlk hits there
Relaunch of basic (improved) Azeroth = X M extra (old / new)
Wow in its new form (both in landscape and class designs) could be in a position of having 13 to 14 million subsriptions by years end.
The reason is clear and simple: lack of decent alternatives within the same kind of playing options offered by a renewed WOW.
It's the first time an MMORPG maker will not use the #2 tag upon a follow up game, it will be interesting to see the end results.
Want a real mmorpg? Play WOW with experience turned off mode and be Pve_Pvp King at any level without a rat race.
Comments
China was part of that 11.5 million subscribers till they banned WoW. With the reintroduction I don't foresee the numbers rising that much. Even though Cataclysm is "revamping" the old Azeroth I don't foresee causing subs to rise to 13-14 million subs. People leave every day not because of the content but because of the community in WoW and the fact that Blizz hasn't done anything to really make it stand out anymore. Back in it's day WoW was a great game but now with new games on the horizon set for 2010 and beyond all they are doing is giving the old world a new coat. I know many people who played and won't return just because WoW is the same old. It's not enjoyable to grind up to cap just to find end-game has become the gear-score game. Adding new areas is great but it won't win over that many people.
SW: TOR, Mortal Online, Earthrise, GW2, are going to make it extremely difficult.
China had already a new record of concurrent users at the reintroduction in september (see the press conference notes of Feb 10th, Morhaime speaks about it).
So you're hoping it will "not rise that much" is very doubtful.
Secondly: CATA is really WOW2 with a new Azeroth: everyone with even a slight nose for viewing the new Azeroth lands will go in.
And if you go in with a Blizzard game ... you never know when you go out again.
Third: SW is not even programmed for 2010 and neither is GW2 and that game doesn't even have a subscription (the numbers I am talking about). Both games launch at the very earliest in 2011 and they use .... henchmen. NPC's instead of human players to fill in tanks and healers (biggest mistake you can make in an mmorpg).
So there is absolutely no competiton whatsoever for Blizzard in 2010.
Nope: considering the fact that even a buyer of the basic WOW box will see the new lands of Azeroth redone, chances are big these new records high will be attained.
I didn't see an argument against it.
Want a real mmorpg? Play WOW with experience turned off mode and be Pve_Pvp King at any level without a rat race.
anyone who cancelled their sub and is interested in "seeing the old/new lands" needs only take a free trial.
you dont need to resub to see the stuff
sure subs will rise some. but as with all the recent additions to WoW the numbers will dwindle after the intial "wow" factor wears off.
I would think when any expansion is released that there will be a brief rise in subscription numbers . This is not just true of Warcraft but most mmos . Inspite of a recent news strory in MMORPG.com where the ceo of Activision Blizzard claimed that the game still had 11.5 million subscribers the news the following day in the Wall Street Journel pointed at a 286 million dollar loss . I know which source material I will take more seriously . I don't blame him for being ecconomical with the truth , if iI was in his place I would talk up the possatives . The Wall Street Journel numbers do cast serious doubts on this statement . I think Cataclysm may briefly boost numbers to 12 million again . Beyond that it really does depend on the content that on offer and whether the developers can put right many of the issues that led people who once enjoyed the game to leave . It will either boost WoW to new heights of popularity or be a massive disapointment . It would be great to see the game return to it glory days . I know a lot of people slam Blizzard for what they've done to the game but most of the changes took they hate took place after Activsion got involved . Perhaps blaming the wrong party .
if only they also made a new graphics engine to bring the game up to date with modern standards...
a more GPU efficient engine would indeed be great...
Your logic is flawed. I see more new people than people leaving on my server and by know I know or recognize most of the 80s on it. And with those games you listed, games in past with super big hype have done nothing to hinder WoW. Whoever said that blizzard reported a loss, Do you really think blizzard only makes money off of WoW subs. They are currently developing 4 games and devoting a lot of money and resources into it and you think that its only because of losing subscriptions? you're crazy.
Your logic is flawed. I see more new people than people leaving on my server and by know I know or recognize most of the 80s on it. And with those games you listed, games in past with super big hype have done nothing to hinder WoW. Whoever said that blizzard reported a loss, Do you really think blizzard only makes money off of WoW subs. They are currently developing 4 games and devoting a lot of money and resources into it and you think that its only because of losing subscriptions? you're crazy.
You don't take into account that many "new" people that you see are simply older players using a RAF account for their alts, not to mention that of course you wouldn't see the people leaving because well, they just leave so there's nothing to see.
There really is nothing logical as you like to put it about your arguements, they're simply conjecture.
I'm likely to resub to WoW after CATA.
Haven't played the game in a long time and since they announced CATA I've been pretty sure I will resub when its released.
Your logic is flawed. I see more new people than people leaving on my server and by know I know or recognize most of the 80s on it. And with those games you listed, games in past with super big hype have done nothing to hinder WoW. Whoever said that blizzard reported a loss, Do you really think blizzard only makes money off of WoW subs. They are currently developing 4 games and devoting a lot of money and resources into it and you think that its only because of losing subscriptions? you're crazy.
Blizzard is currently not losing subscriptions, however they have admittedly not had any growth since 2008. That number has remained at approximately 11.5 million. How long do you think this one game is going stroll along with that many subs?
All games have to wind down at some point. It will take a few years and even then there will still be people playing, but Blizzard knows WOW will someday lose it's crown. They are preparing for that time as we speak.
As for crazy? The only people that are crazy here are those that have way to much "hope" that everything will just keep going upstream with WOW. That's unrealistic and very naive.
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb
I wonder how many of the 11.5 million claimed by Blizzard are bots using hacked accounts that the true owners have no desire to get back?
Your logic is flawed. I see more new people than people leaving on my server and by know I know or recognize most of the 80s on it. And with those games you listed, games in past with super big hype have done nothing to hinder WoW. Whoever said that blizzard reported a loss, Do you really think blizzard only makes money off of WoW subs. They are currently developing 4 games and devoting a lot of money and resources into it and you think that its only because of losing subscriptions? you're crazy.
Blizzard is currently not losing subscriptions, however they have admittedly not had any growth since 2008. That number has remained at approximately 11.5 million. How long do you think this one game is going stroll along with that many subs?
All games have to wind down at some point. It will take a few years and even then there will still be people playing, but Blizzard knows WOW will someday lose it's crown. They are preparing for that time as we speak.
As for crazy? The only people that are crazy here are those that have way to much "hope" that everything will just keep going upstream with WOW. That's unrealistic and very naive.
In fact theres no real proof unfortunatly that WOW still has 11.5 million subs . While the CEO of Acitivision Blizzard stated that there were in an online interview . A few days later the Wall Street Journel reported that the company had lost 286 million dollars . Those loses must raise doubt of the validity of his statement . Its good buisness practice to lie sometimes or at least embelish the truth . Activsion Blizzard know once they admit slippage then the liklyhood is they will lose even more subscribers . While one loss will not mean that WoW is losing subs should further shortfalls happen in subsequant financial statements , I don't see how they will be able to credibly maintain making such statements in future years . At which point I would think you wont hear any more from them about subscription numbers ever .
How many do you think it is since you felt this was a rational question to ask.
A@ the almost last poster: the losses have nothing to do with Blizzard.
They were accounted for the Activision group and the Guitar Hero franchise.
The complete history can be found on any financial site. CEO of Guitar Hero was fired in January and 200 men were fired from various development houses, but this had nothing to do with the Blizzard identity.
For the fourth quarter of 2009, Blizzard's non-GAAP net revenue was $329 million, with an operating margin of more than 49%.
Which is ridiculous good considering the downfall of the economy and the US gaming recession (which appeared to be MINUS 11.6 %). And the CEO of Blizzard confirmed the 11.5 million subscribers of December 2009 in the reports.
325 million in those 3 months came from the MMO, 4 millions came from other Blizzard games (D2, WC3, SC).
Overall the yearly revenu of Bliizard was over1.2 billion dollars for the MMO.
The overall of the Activision group was at 4.28 billion dollars and the stock had a boost these last days.
Stock rated companies are controlled and any information given to the stock holders must be correct or they face prosecution.
Source: http://investor.activision.com/index.cfm with the spoken press conference and inclusion of the specific data for Blizzard given at http://seekingalpha.com/article/187939-activision-blizzard-inc-q4-2009-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed&page=6
and further pages.
2010 will be the first full year where Blizzard will operate an official approved WOW with NetEase in China and it will be the first year in which the basic game will get a complete revamp - both in basic content and class talent settings.
You don't have to be a genious to see 2010 will have a boost for the global gameplay and consequently subscriptions if the usual Blizzard standards are attained.
The cross server dungeon finder was only introduced in December and we already saw the impact didn't we ?
Want a real mmorpg? Play WOW with experience turned off mode and be Pve_Pvp King at any level without a rat race.
I don't consider subscription numbers from WoW China as counting. Their subscription method is vastly different, and the revenue from China only accounts for 6% of their revenue from WoW, total.
So really, WoW only really has 6 million subs worth accounting for... and that's not even excluding hacked and bot accounts that are active using stolen credit cards.
Because we all know publicly traded companies have never lied or skewed the numbers of their performance in their favor to make themselves appear to preform better than they actually are. /sarcasm
Selective statistics make it easy to skew people's perception of reality, especially when they don't stop to look at the entire situation, which they rarely do.
How many do you think it is since you felt this was a rational question to ask.
I dont know, which is why I asked. I figured the one here with all the answers might pull some figures out of somewhere. I dont know why it isnt a legitimate question. Hacking retired accounts seems to be a problem Blizzard is having and if they are retired I would think there would be some , like myself, that do not feel the need to go through the process of reclaiming something they no longer have a use for. So again, I wonder how many of the, insert number here, are accounts held by gold farmers.
Because we all know publicly traded companies have never lied or skewed the numbers of their performance in their favor to make themselves appear to preform better than they actually are. /sarcasm
Selective statistics make it easy to skew people's perception of reality, especially when they don't stop to look at the entire situation, which they rarely do.
You mean number crunchers paid for by the company might skew numbers in favor of their employer?? What is the world coming to?
Its been going on since math was invented. Only the naive believe otherwise.
im sorry to say you are right
gamer have been calling it wow 2 for good reason .its as close as a game can go without making a new game!
How many do you think it is since you felt this was a rational question to ask.
I dont know, which is why I asked. I figured the one here with all the answers might pull some figures out of somewhere. I dont know why it isnt a legitimate question. Hacking retired accounts seems to be a problem Blizzard is having and if they are retired I would think there would be some , like myself, that do not feel the need to go through the process of reclaiming something they no longer have a use for. So again, I wonder how many of the, insert number here, are accounts held by gold farmers.
Well I don't think anyone here has all the answers as you put it, but at the same time I don't think your question has any real relevance on the overall subscriber numbers as you are trying to imply.
There are gold farmers in every game and the offhanded implication you are making is just plain silly.
I didn't say your question wasn't legitimate.
Because we all know publicly traded companies have never lied or skewed the numbers of their performance in their favor to make themselves appear to preform better than they actually are. /sarcasm
Selective statistics make it easy to skew people's perception of reality, especially when they don't stop to look at the entire situation, which they rarely do.
You mean number crunchers paid for by the company might skew numbers in favor of their employer?? What is the world coming to?
Its been going on since math was invented. Only the naive believe otherwise.
Good point, but that doesn't mean everyone is bending the truth or twisting numbers does it?
Does blizzard specifically detail that they only count paying active accounts and are very specific about what is and isn't a subscriber?
Does blizzard have enough active servers to support their subscription claims, yes.
Does blizzard make enough revenue to support their subscription claims, yes.
Has wow retained 3 of the top best selling pc game spots for years and years without fail, yes.
Perhaps blizzard is misrepresenting their real revenue, lied about what they count as a subscriber, there are not really over 500 game servers for the area they claim 4-5 million subscribers in or NPD is helping blizzard skew their numbers by falsely reporting their sales positions.
Obviously they must be skewing the numbers, because all the evidence that points out how impossible those numbers are is hard to ignore. People are naive and something about the invention of math is pretty hard evidence to ignore.
The wealth of information is astounding.
How many do you think it is since you felt this was a rational question to ask.
I dont know, which is why I asked. I figured the one here with all the answers might pull some figures out of somewhere. I dont know why it isnt a legitimate question. Hacking retired accounts seems to be a problem Blizzard is having and if they are retired I would think there would be some , like myself, that do not feel the need to go through the process of reclaiming something they no longer have a use for. So again, I wonder how many of the, insert number here, are accounts held by gold farmers.
Well I don't think anyone here has all the answers as you put it, but at the same time I don't think your question has any real relevance on the overall subscriber numbers as you are trying to imply.
There are gold farmers in every game and the offhanded implication you are making is just plain silly.
I didn't say your question wasn't legitimate.
Silly, really? Any numbers on how many accounts have been hacked in the last couple of months? From what information can be found on the subject the number very well could be in the thousands although im sure these are numbers that will never release. Alas, it is Blizzard we are talking about. If it were another company im sure the seriousness of the problem would be much more and lay at the feet of said company.
Because we all know publicly traded companies have never lied or skewed the numbers of their performance in their favor to make themselves appear to preform better than they actually are. /sarcasm
Selective statistics make it easy to skew people's perception of reality, especially when they don't stop to look at the entire situation, which they rarely do.
You mean number crunchers paid for by the company might skew numbers in favor of their employer?? What is the world coming to?
Its been going on since math was invented. Only the naive believe otherwise.
Good point, but that doesn't mean everyone is bending the truth or twisting numbers does it?
Does blizzard specifically detail that they only count paying active accounts and are very specific about what is and isn't a subscriber?
Does blizzard have enough active servers to support their subscription claims, yes.
Does blizzard make enough revenue to support their subscription claims, yes.
Has wow retained 3 of the top best selling pc game spots for years and years without fail, yes.
Perhaps blizzard is misrepresenting their real revenue, lied about what they count as a subscriber, there are not really over 500 game servers for the area they claim 4-5 million subscribers in or NPD is helping blizzard skew their numbers by falsely reporting their sales positions.
Obviously they must be skewing the numbers, because all the evidence that points out how impossible those numbers are is hard to ignore. People are naive and something about the invention of math is pretty hard evidence to ignore.
The wealth of information is astounding.
Yes the wealth of information is astounding. And just who supplies this information? And yes, people have been fudging numbers since the invention of math and those who do not know this are very naive. To those to young to remember the 1990's, companies givng false numbers to stock holders was business as usual, as it always has been and always will be. You carry on with your fight to convince people that Blizzard is the only honest company in the world, im done with you, you may go.
I'm not trying to convince everyone that blizzard is the only honest company (strawman attack), but I am directly disputing your empty claims.
Who presents the information: Let us see:
Nor do I need to resort to hyperbole to make a point. OMG some companies were dishonest in the 1990s, so that can be used as evidence to prove that no company is honest right?
If you have some information to back up your claims other than bias, please share it with the forums here. If all you have is disbelief for the sake of disbelieving then don't be surprised that information might directly counter your empty claims.
Ok, so if there are thousands of accounts getting hacked, what impact does that have on 11.5 million (or whatever it currently is). Do you think that makes it justifiable to infer that somehow blizzard is being dishonest about their sub numbers as you did above? Thus I call it silly. Yes silly.
Don't beat around the bush. If you have a claim to make, do it.
As for your comments about it being another company and being their fault, not really. NCSoft is having the same problem right now and I am sure it is from the same sources that are affecting blizzard. Soe said just last year that they suffer close to 1 million dollars in credit card charge backs from gold farmers and hackers every 6 months or so and I am sure it is something beyond their control. If it was something that was easy to stop without adversely affecting their customers I am sure all three companies would have done it by now.
I think a reboot was a smart way to go with the expansion pack . The problem is a lot of gamers that have given up WoW have done so for various reasons like the ease of obtaining epics , fast leveling etc . Its not that they don't like Warcraft its more down to the fact that they don't like Blizzard . For me when I finally gave up ,deleted my characters and threw away my WoW dvd roms it was the way the community had gone . I said hello to several lowbies outside of the auctionhouse in Stormwind , got a few sarcastic comments before i spoke to a level 25 gnome who had just taken up the game who seamed like a nice person so my last act in WoW was to give him several thousand gold . For which he was most greatful . Sometimes it pays to be nice. For me the game is over . i spent 1/16 of an average lifetime in WoW ( meaning i played for 2-3 hours a day for 5 years ) . Its become mostly about endgame raiding now . Being someone that likes world PVP its not for me anymore .