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I predict a rapid exodus of players from WoW in early 2009

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  • AhilesAhiles Member Posts: 414
    Originally posted by ZSlaya


    WoW is not going to die any time soon. The only game that is currently in dev. that might kill WoW is Blizzard's secret mmo project codenamed "Hydra". If SOE were to make EQ3, now would be the time. No game will be realeased that I have heard of by 2011 that will be the next WoW. if they could get EQ3 out by 2012-2013 then they could easily dethrone WoW because of its low end graphics and the players will start to get bored with it. I am going to try to email this brilliant suggestion to SOE, but they will either ignore me or release a game with the same quality as VG when it came out -_-
    EQ3 could be the real WoW killer.... AKA the MMO version of Jesus.....
    we need our savior :P

     

    Dont you know, Brad tryed to make EQ3, its called Vanguard Saga of heroes. Oh yes that was trulyl the greatets wow killer ever.

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by Arthousesig:
    Looking at the incentive structure of the current top MMOs by subscription numbers, these are my predictions for January-April 2009:

    The reason for the drop will be a lack of elite PVE content and the migration of top-end guilds to one of the competitors, which the masses will then follow. .............The demise of WoW is here, and it will be surprisingly swift (2-3 months with 500k subs lost in EU/US each month, much faster in china)



    Originally posted by Gazenthia:
    I am one of the people that has been FORCED to quit because of those technical problems......

    BC started out with massive queues, and excitement, and all that jazz as well but it died down, the same will happen with Wrath and a whole lot sooner.


    .......I'll go with the OP on this one.


    Please remember to check back in February along with the OP with your updated subscription 'loss' numbers. I think we already know you both are not even close on January. You guys do know in February WoW would have to post 1 million losses just to keep pace with your sound and reasoned predictions, right? (2-3 months with 500k loss each month from Jan-April?) I think you guys want the Darkfall forums. That's where you can go right now and look like a genius for predicting a demise. Those are -----> way. You'll find lots of company there, lol.

    Don't quit your day jobs guys.. I bet it's a helluva lot easier to guesstimate when the fries and nuggets will be done than 'Figurin' out all dis' tuff numba stuffs.'

    Well, I guess now everyone will remember you too, hehe.

  • GameloadingGameloading Member UncommonPosts: 14,182
    Originally posted by Gazenthia


    First of all, this was a good expansion pack. The leveling process and solo PvE quests were the best ever.



    However, a word that can also describe it is: short.



    The instances are short. The RAID instances are short. Wintergrasp and SotA is short. The storylines and process of reaching major lore character is also, disturbingly, short and abrupt. You can theoretically walk in and kill Malygos right now, and its almost exactly the same for Anub'arak. I expect it will be the same for Arthas.



    Burning Crusade had a massive exodus of players a few months/year after its release and its going to happen again. BC started out with massive queues, and excitement, and all that jazz as well but it died down, the same will happen with Wrath and a whole lot sooner.



    Add to this that there are a whole lot more technical issues that render the game unplayable and nobody seems sure as to why. I am one of the people that has been FORCED to quit because of those technical problems (high latency spikes).



    I'll go with the OP on this one.



     

    Incorrect, if you check WoW's subscribtion numbers pace you'll notice that there NEVER was a massive exodus of players as WoW's subscribtion numbers have only increased, never decreased.

  • GazenthiaGazenthia Member Posts: 1,186
    Originally posted by popinja
     

     

    Please remember to check back in February along with the OP with your updated subscription 'loss' numbers. I think we already know you both are not even close on January. You guys do know in February WoW would have to post 1 million losses just to keep pace with your sound and reasoned predictions, right?

     

    I didn't say that it would happen in February. Or any other specific month. I said that the exodus of players, which did in fact happen with BC, would start sooner with Wrath because the game is really quite short. Quite short in general and not just Instance/raiding wise.



    Good but short.

     

    To the other guy: I reiterate that it did happen with BC. I still remember seeing that they reached a milestone twice. A good 6-8 months in BC and the consistent and actively playing population dropped considerably. Still don't believe me? If there wasn't a decline, then how do you explain all of the servers that are just now experiencing queues or are having them so much worse? Those aren't brand new players buying Wrath.

    ___________________
    Sadly, I see storm clouds on the horizon. A faint stench of Vanguard is in the air.-Kien

    http://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2006/12/13/

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by Gazenthia

    Originally posted by popinjay
     Please remember to check back in February along with the OP with your updated subscription 'loss' numbers. I think we already know you both are not even close on January. You guys do know in February WoW would have to post 1 million losses just to keep pace with your sound and reasoned predictions, right?
     
    I didn't say that it would happen in February. Or any other specific month.


    The OP said:


    Originally posted by Arthousesig: Looking at the incentive structure of the current top MMOs by subscription numbers, these are my predictions for January-April 2009:

    Then the OP said:


    Originally posted by Arthousesig: 'The demise of WoW is here, and it will be surprisingly swift (2-3 months with 500k subs lost in EU/US each month, much faster in china)'


    Then you said:


    Originally posted by Gazenthia: I'll go with the OP on this one.
    You agree.

    Why do people lie, when they KNOW they are gonna get caught? Kind of late to back out now. It's in print.


  • APRAuroreAPRAurore Member Posts: 330

    "I don't look for another game to kill WoW, I don't think that's likely anytime soon. What's far more likely...this isn't a prediction, just a possibility...is that the world economy will go into the tank so bad that luxuries like computer gaming are no longer possible.

    So if your predictions happen to come true, it won't be for the reasons you've given. Even if the world economy tanks, the fall off of WoW subscriptions won't happen as quickly as you predicted. "

     

    I think this poster has it bang on. With the global economy facing a downturn, more and more players will find it impossible to maintain an MMO sub, even though MMOs are relatively cheap for entertainment purposes (especially if said players are casual and don't keep up with the latest computer hardware technology). Blizz might end up faring better than other MMO companies, but they do stand a chance to lose players due to the credit crunch. The other thing to consider is that there might be less MMOs in development within the next few years because of lack of liquidity in general.

     

    My humble prediction is that all games will lose players including WoW, but that because there will be less MMOs coming out, Blizz will continue to have the leading market share and perhaps gain an even bigger slice of the pie if other MMOs can't be kept running.

    Back in EvE. Started with BatMUD. Main MMOs have been EvE and DAoC.

  • GameloadingGameloading Member UncommonPosts: 14,182
    Originally posted by Gazenthia

    Originally posted by popinja
     

     

    Please remember to check back in February along with the OP with your updated subscription 'loss' numbers. I think we already know you both are not even close on January. You guys do know in February WoW would have to post 1 million losses just to keep pace with your sound and reasoned predictions, right?

     

    I didn't say that it would happen in February. Or any other specific month. I said that the exodus of players, which did in fact happen with BC, would start sooner with Wrath because the game is really quite short. Quite short in general and not just Instance/raiding wise.



    Good but short.

     

    To the other guy: I reiterate that it did happen with BC. I still remember seeing that they reached a milestone twice. A good 6-8 months in BC and the consistent and actively playing population dropped considerably. Still don't believe me? If there wasn't a decline, then how do you explain all of the servers that are just now experiencing queues or are having them so much worse? Those aren't brand new players buying Wrath.



     

    I told you, you're wrong.

    Go look up the old press releases of Blizzard. As you can see, WoW's subscribtion base INCREASED, not DECREASED. In fact, it has been increasing in a steady flow ever since it was released.

    The reason why you find more and more people waiting in line just to play the game is because the playerbase is increasing, WoW's subscriber base is always increasing.  In january 2007, World of Warcraft had 8 million subscribers. in July 2007, World of Warcraft had 9 million subscribers, and in January 2008 World of Warcraft had 10 million subscribers.

    So really, where is this "mass exodus" of WoW players shortly after TBC?



    Oh right, it never happened.

  • IcoGamesIcoGames Member Posts: 2,360
    Originally posted by Gazenthia

    Originally posted by popinja
     

     

    Please remember to check back in February along with the OP with your updated subscription 'loss' numbers. I think we already know you both are not even close on January. You guys do know in February WoW would have to post 1 million losses just to keep pace with your sound and reasoned predictions, right?

     

    I didn't say that it would happen in February. Or any other specific month. I said that the exodus of players, which did in fact happen with BC, would start sooner with Wrath because the game is really quite short. Quite short in general and not just Instance/raiding wise.



    Good but short.

     

    To the other guy: I reiterate that it did happen with BC. I still remember seeing that they reached a milestone twice. A good 6-8 months in BC and the consistent and actively playing population dropped considerably. Still don't believe me? If there wasn't a decline, then how do you explain all of the servers that are just now experiencing queues or are having them so much worse? Those aren't brand new players buying Wrath.

     

    Btw ... huge Invader Zim fan here. 

    I think you're confusing overall decline in population with turn-over.  Certianly, and I can agree based on my own observations, that people left after BC.  However, with new players being introduced and the high recitivism of former players the delta was positive growth.

    Frankly without a viable alternative on the market, I think Blizzard will experience much of the same for the foreseeable future. 

    Ico
    Oh, cruel fate, to be thusly boned. Ask not for whom the bone bones. It bones for thee.

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by APRAurore
    "I don't look for another game to kill WoW, I don't think that's likely anytime soon. What's far more likely...this isn't a prediction, just a possibility...is that the world economy will go into the tank so bad that luxuries like computer gaming are no longer possible.
    So if your predictions happen to come true, it won't be for the reasons you've given. Even if the world economy tanks, the fall off of WoW subscriptions won't happen as quickly as you predicted. "
     
    I think this poster has it bang on. With the global economy facing a downturn, more and more players will find it impossible to maintain an MMO sub, even though MMOs are relatively cheap for entertainment purposes (especially if said players are casual and don't keep up with the latest computer hardware technology). Blizz might end up faring better than other MMO companies, but they do stand a chance to lose players due to the credit crunch. The other thing to consider is that there might be less MMOs in development within the next few years because of lack of liquidity in general.
     
    My humble prediction is that all games will lose players including WoW, but that because there will be less MMOs coming out, Blizz will continue to have the leading market share and perhaps gain an even bigger slice of the pie if other MMOs can't be kept running.

    Not trying to pick a fight, but this is as general as can be. Almost everyone thinks Blizzard will lose SOME subs. But 500k a month? Geez.. c'mon.

    As you say in this economic downturn, people drop most expensive things and go for the cheap. Gaming wise, console are cheap. But the games are not. If someone was going to spend $50 for a console game, they'd get 2 1/2 months out of that on a MMO.

    Now for adults, the MMO makes sense. They'd scrap the console first if the game was good. Which is exactly why so many play Wow. Don't need a big rig upgrade, way cheaper than any montly cellphone bill, and you play all day/night if you want. No way this gets scrapped as a first entertainment option when budget crunching for most people. Even Gamefly you'd have to pay as much as a montly sub to get the games, unless you have them send you one at a time.

    To agree with the OP on principle (Wow will lose subs.) may be a fair point. All games do that, that's not a news flash or worth starting a thread over. It's like saying "All people will die one day." Yeah, but when? And in a mass earthquake or a nuclear war?" Not very convincing. Most people in the world will die one by one. Alone... statistics prove it. So predictions like this are stupid.

    But when he makes outlandish claims as he has, then backs it up with "See, I predicted AoC would fail.. so I'm gonna be right." Well, first AoC would have to fail. Last I checked, it's still running and getting subs. Not fast, but it is doing it.

    You guys might not like the game, but you're proving your ignorance by repeatedly saying flatly "I agree with the OP." Talk about the game mechanics, or the ease of it. But distance yourself from his crazy Enron math. You keep saying "I agree" blanket-wise you're showing you need more clues about the gaming world.

    *EDIT: Not saying this poster agrees with the OP. He never said that.^^

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539

    1/16/09 article in www.actiontrip.com

    What on Earth have PC gamers been buying the most in 2008. Well, let's have a gander, shall we (the words, Battle Chest, Sims & Warcraft keep coming up very often):

    1. World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King
    2. Spore
    3. World of Warcraft: Battle Chest
    4. Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures
    5. Warhammer Online: Age Of Reckoning
    6. Call Of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
    7. The Sims 2 Double Deluxe
    8. World Of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King Collector's Ed
    9. Fallout 3
    10. World Of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade
    11. Call Of Duty: World At War
    12. The Sims 2 FreeTime
    13. World Of Warcraft
    14. Sins Of A Solar Empire
    15. Warcraft III Battle Chest
    16. The Sims 2 Apartment Life
    17. Crysis
    18. Left 4 Dead
    19. Diablo Battle Chest
    20. The Orange Box


    Anyone seen 'Nostradamus the OP' lately? Yeah, its dying REAL soon this year. Just look at all these people who can't wait to STOP playing Wow.

  • APRAuroreAPRAurore Member Posts: 330

    "Not trying to pick a fight, but this is as general as can be. Almost everyone thinks Blizzard will lose SOME subs. But 500k a month? Geez.. c'mon."

     

    Why is it a problem to be general? In fact, one can't predict accurately how many players any game will lose due to the credit crunch because we don't know how unstable the economy is right now. That's why I didn't predict numbers. If the economic instability stops and we just have a slow, constant downturn that plateaus, the rate of players lost won't be fast. Perhaps there will be a recovery towards the end of the year and players will come back. Let's just hope there are no more scandals like the Madoff disaster!

     

    "As you say in this economic downturn, people drop most expensive things and go for the cheap. Gaming wise, console are cheap. But the games are not. If someone was going to spend $50 for a console game, they'd get 2 1/2 months out of that on a MMO.

    Now for adults, the MMO makes sense. They'd scrap the console first if the game was good. Which is exactly why so many play Wow. Don't need a big rig upgrade, way cheaper than any montly cellphone bill, and you play all day/night if you want. No way this gets scrapped as a first entertainment option when budget crunching for most people. Even Gamefly you'd have to pay as much as a montly sub to get the games, unless you have them send you one at a time."

     

    We agree here, though it depends on taste. Some people think WoW is good, others don't. Some people don't like the MMO genre at all. On a purely neutral basis, MMOs are definitely cheaper than a lot of other things a person could put surplus money into and therefore has the potential to be the form of entertainment a lot of cash-starved folks go to.

     

    "To agree with the OP on principle (Wow will lose subs.) may be a fair point. All games do that, that's not a news flash or worth starting a thread over. It's like saying "All people will die one day." Yeah, but when? And in a mass earthquake or a nuclear war?" Not very convincing. Most people in the world will die one by one. Alone... statistics prove it. So predictions like this are stupid."

     

    I didn't agree with the OP in my post. I agreed with someone else who posted that if the OP's predictions ever came true it would be due to the global economy more than anything else.

     

    "You guys might not like the game, but you're proving your ignorance by repeatedly saying flatly "I agree with the OP." Talk about the game mechanics, or the ease of it. But distance yourself from his crazy Enron math. You keep saying "I agree" blanket-wise you're showing you need more clues about the gaming world."

     

    I really enjoy playing WoW and am subbed to it. In fact, it's the only thing I am subbed to right now. Not sure where you get that I think WoW is losing so many people that it will go under or that I hate it. I am completely baffled by your reaction to my post. In fact, I posted that WoW will probably *increase* its relative market share because other game companies will be in worse straits than Blizz and may have to end up closing their games if they can't afford to support them any longer. I think WoW will come out of the economic downturn with an even greater hold on the MMO market than it does today. The huge downside though to all of this is that for us gamers it sucks that we might not have as many game choices in the future.

     

    "*EDIT: Not saying this poster agrees with the OP. He never said that.^^"

     

    I'm glad you posted that, because I don't agree with what the OP said. The point of my first post is to give the global economy's state more importance in discussing retention of players in WoW.

    Back in EvE. Started with BatMUD. Main MMOs have been EvE and DAoC.

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by APRAurore

    "*EDIT: Not saying this poster agrees with the OP. He never said that.^^"

    I'm glad you posted that, because I don't agree with what the OP said. The point of my first post is to give the global economy's state more importance in discussing retention of players in WoW.

    Only residing in WoW until she completes some more of her single player games.



    First, let me apologize for saying "he" as you clearly state you are a "she" at the end of your post.^^ I wasn't paying attention earlier to gender (as I usually don't) if you stated it and I spoke in broader terms of "he". I usually don't think its a big deal, as a good idea/bad idea is just that, no matter which sex says it. Again, I apologize for that.

    Although my post used your quote, I responded to you directly mainly, but some of that as you can see was for the general "you all". There are plenty parts there that I assumed you'd figure I didn't mean you directly. In case their may have been question, I did edit in that so you would know I wasn't saying YOU specifically was agreeing with the OP in your thread. I was hoping you'd catch it, but it looked like you did a bit too late. :(

    Again, sorry for the typical "he/she" stuff. When probably 85% of gamers are males, you just get used to doing that.

  • neonwireneonwire Member Posts: 1,787
    Originally posted by Arthousesig


    For those who might remember me, I predicted the rapid demise of Age of Conan back in June 2008, looking purely at the game mechanics and the nature of the game itself. This was at the same time review magazines were throwing around scores of 9/10 for AOC, but it was obvious the game would die from playing the game, which is how I make my predictions :)
    I am a long time MMO player starting off in Ultima Online days, through L2, AO, EVE, EQ1 (but not 2) WoW, WAR and LOTRO.
     
    Looking at the incentive structure of the current top MMOs by subscription numbers, these are my predictions for January-April 2009:
     
    1. WoW: currently has the largest number of subs although this has already dropped down to around 9 million from a high of 11.x million. Around 6 million of the remaining 9 million subs is from the China/East Asia region, and these are likely to drop off the fastest as EU and US subs drop off. The reason for the drop will be a lack of elite PVE content and the migration of top-end guilds to one of the competitors, which the masses will then follow. The nature of the mmo market is such that a game can very rapidly drop in popularity as gamers are a fickle bunch. The demise of WoW is here, and it will be surprisingly swift (2-3 months with 500k subs lost in EU/US each month, much faster in china)
    Yeah yeah yeah whatever. Sure people will leave WoW every time a new game comes out and then a few months later when they find out that its actually just an inferior clone of WoW or just plain old boring or broken then they will drift back to it. WoW will many peoples safety net for many years to come.
    2. WAR: currently the 2nd largest mmo in subs, although a very high quality mmo its fortress endgame is currently broken (although its city sieges are not) making the #1 priority for Mythic to fix endgame fortress sieges. The success of this game depends on how fast and how well they can fix this part of the RVR endgame. although the PVE instances and the rest of the RVR experience are all top notch. WAR is the likely destination of all the current top mmo guilds and players from WoW and other games
    You really dont have a clue do you. All it will take is a few more average mmos to come out over the next few years and WAR will just dwindle away to almost nothing, becoming little more than a Vanguard equivalent. Periodicly we will see posts appearing where people will be crying "Come back to WAR. Its actually not as bad as everyone thinks it is. The population is healthy and rising. Honestly! We just need more players and the game will be great. Mythic is currently working on fixing this and fixing that".
    However once a decent mmo comes along that offers good, solid and MEANINGFUL PvP then WAR will get shoved to the wayside and forgotten.....which is pretty much what it deserves for being such a close WoW clone anyway.
    3. EVE: not often mentioned but this mmo has carved out its niche and is holding steady, doing what it does in a large sandbox space environment that appeals to the hardcore sandbox PVP crowd (in space)
    Sorry but thats not a prediction. Its a statement on how the game is doing now.
    4. LOTRO: another niche PVE game, this one has been ticking along nicely with its new xpac but one can't help but feel it should have done better given the franchise
    Again this is not a prediction.
    Other predictions:
     
    a) Darkfall will be a disappointment, the budget is low and the game is very far from finished, and is nowhere near the level of polish of WoW/WAR/LOTRO
    You're probably right with this one......but then its not exactly hard to figure out is it.
    b) Aion will appeal to some of the old L2ers, but will likely not touch the mainstream (but will be a good mmo game for those who love the asian-styled grind mmos)
    Cant honestly say. I actually think it will probably appeal to the mainstream VERY well actually as your average no-brainer gamer will look at it and go "Oooooh wow! Look at the pretty characters and the lovely flashy graphics! Look at the over stylised armour and the big oversized swords! Oh gosh I can have wings". People who know nothing about mmos will probably be drawn to this game too because of the way it looks.



     

    Anyway I will look forward to seeing an identical "WoW is gonna die soon" post from you same time next year.

  • ktanner3ktanner3 Member UncommonPosts: 4,061
    Originally posted by popinjay


    1/16/09 article in www.actiontrip.com
    What on Earth have PC gamers been buying the most in 2008. Well, let's have a gander, shall we (the words, Battle Chest, Sims & Warcraft keep coming up very often):
    1. World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King

    2. Spore

    3. World of Warcraft: Battle Chest

    4. Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures

    5. Warhammer Online: Age Of Reckoning

    6. Call Of Duty 4: Modern Warfare

    7. The Sims 2 Double Deluxe

    8. World Of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King Collector's Ed

    9. Fallout 3

    10. World Of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade

    11. Call Of Duty: World At War

    12. The Sims 2 FreeTime

    13. World Of Warcraft

    14. Sins Of A Solar Empire

    15. Warcraft III Battle Chest

    16. The Sims 2 Apartment Life

    17. Crysis

    18. Left 4 Dead

    19. Diablo Battle Chest

    20. The Orange Box


    Anyone seen 'Nostradamus the OP' lately? Yeah, its dying REAL soon this year. Just look at all these people who can't wait to STOP playing Wow.

    Nostradamus was a scam as well. Anyone can take the words of some ancient prophet and twist them around to whatever suits their desire.

    Anyways, it is always amusing to read the latest "predictions" on WOW's demise. It has yet to happen and I doubt it will happen anytime in the future. 

    Currently Playing: World of Warcraft

  • PheacePheace Member Posts: 2,408

    Haha, WAR being in there shocked me a little but here's the latest December version: 

     

    Here are the top 20 best-selling PC games in the US during December 2008:

    1. World Of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King

    2. The Sims 2 Double Deluxe

    3. Spore

    4. The Sims 2 Apartment Life

    5. Call Of Duty: World At War

    6. Left 4 Dead

    7. Fallout 3

    8. World Of Warcraft: Battle Chest

    9. World Of Warcraft

    10. The Sims 2 Mansion & Garden Stuff

    11. Bejeweled Twist

    12. Spore Creepy & Cute Parts Pack

    13. Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3

    14. Grand Theft Auto IV

    15. World Of Warcraft: Burning Crusade

    16. The Sims 2 Pets

    17. The Sims 2 Seasons

    18. Nancy Drew: The Haunting of Castle Malloy

    19. The Sims 2 FreeTime

    20. The Sims 2 University


     

    image

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by Pheace
    Haha, WAR being in there shocked me a little but here's the latest December version: 
     
    Here are the top 20 best-selling PC games in the US during December 2008:
    1. World Of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King
    2. The Sims 2 Double Deluxe
    3. Spore
    4. The Sims 2 Apartment Life
    5. Call Of Duty: World At War
    6. Left 4 Dead
    7. Fallout 3
    8. World Of Warcraft: Battle Chest
    9. World Of Warcraft
    10. The Sims 2 Mansion & Garden Stuff
    11. Bejeweled Twist
    12. Spore Creepy & Cute Parts Pack
    13. Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3
    14. Grand Theft Auto IV
    15. World Of Warcraft: Burning Crusade
    16. The Sims 2 Pets
    17. The Sims 2 Seasons
    18. Nancy Drew: The Haunting of Castle Malloy
    19. The Sims 2 FreeTime
    20. The Sims 2 University
     

    Wow.. Warhammer had a pretty good year (3 months) but a crappy December. Almost the same with AoC; good year, bad December...

    I'd hate to see what their January numbers look like.

    If this doesn't shut the OP and those like him up, they simply have NO shame whatsoever, lol.

  • TeranHawkinsTeranHawkins Member Posts: 279

    I can see the decrease in WoW's popularity happening.  When that will be I dont know.  What I do know is I myself am currently NOT having any fun with WoW anymore as I used to in BC.  While Blizz did an excellent job with zone design and variety of quests (and phasing is cool although I hate Boring Tundra), Blizz has just made far too many negative changes to the game.

    • Combining spellpower/healing
    • Lack of PVP gear (especially for BG's)
    • Lack of CC in instances/raids
    • Class imbalance (WoW has turned into all druids, pallys and DK's)
    • Too easy end game (should be fixed with Ulduar)
    • Re-using gear models (why does my new axe look like the one I looted as a level 15?)

    Boredom is what will kill WoW, and all of these bullet points are going to be reasons (not all of them by any means) that WoW will start to decline. 

    Personally I dont see a major decline in player base until either Star Trek Online or The Old Republic (The Old Republic more so) taking away major numbers of players.

     

  • LydonLydon Member UncommonPosts: 2,932

    All I know is that I'm not currently subbed to WoW, but will be soon.

  • GishgeronGishgeron Member Posts: 1,287

     

      I think the largest issue I have with his "prediction" is that it seems to rely on major guild movement to another game.  There IS truth to that ideal, but that truth does not apply to this case in the least.  When a good portion of your major guilds move, their core players often move with them...its been the case since the genre began.  Most guilds DO move game to game, always together.  Here is the major flaw with how this pertains to WoW.

      These guilds do not "move" into a game that is already well past release.

      Most major guilds are full of players that desire being the "first" to do something.  Second or third at least.  These gamers WILL move to a new game, but they always tend to move to a NEW game...generally when its very close to release or just after.  This way they can still have a chance to do things before anyone else.  There are no "new" games as of this moment, especially not ones that would appeal to these guys over WoW (which JUST released an X-Pac along with achievements FOR being first).  In fact, as long as WoW can manage to churn out constant expansions...these guys may never leave at all.

      Because, if there is ONE thing that appeals more to an elitist "always #1" gamer....its being the #1 gamer in a game with 12 million players.  Being #1 when you playerbase is only 200K strong is meaningless compared to being #1 out of millions upon millions. 

      Its an e-peen thing.

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  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by TeranHawkins

    While Blizz did an excellent job with zone design and variety of quests (and phasing is cool although I hate Boring Tundra), Blizz has just made far too many negative changes to the game.

    • Combining spellpower/healing
    • Lack of PVP gear (especially for BG's)
    • Lack of CC in instances/raids Class imbalance (WoW has turned into all druids, pallys and DK's) Too easy end game (should be fixed with Ulduar) Re-using gear models (why does my new axe look like the one I looted as a level 15?)
    Boredom is what will kill WoW, and all of these bullet points are going to be reasons (not all of them by any means) that WoW will start to decline. 

     


    Hmm.. that looks fun.... Let me try:

    While Blizz did an poor job keeping older players interested for long periods of time with zone design and variety of quests (and phasing is just meh; although some people really love the chance to do 150 quests in Borean Tundra), Blizz has just made far too many positive changes to the game to fail.

    • Death Knights: people awaited the class for awhile (and just love it).
    • Inscriptions and glyphs: Increased even further interest in crafting amongst the population that enjoys it.
    • Destructible buildings in Lake Wintergrasp: Even Warhammer, a huge oRvR doesn't have this key feature.
    • A new vehicle system: Enhances in-game travel and fun.
    • Achievement system: The perfect addition for a casual Wow player. Collect 'em all!
    • 10 and 25 man raiding system: This will allow even more access to areas previously reachable only by huge groups. (Form your own elite 10 man group and go kill the equivalent of Gruul with this new change).


    Excitement for a variety of players is what will keep Wow from dying, and all of these bullet points are going to be reasons (not all of them by any means) that Wow will stay at the top of the sales charts for the majority of 2009.

    Wheeeee! What you said, in reverse!

  • TeranHawkinsTeranHawkins Member Posts: 279
    Originally posted by popinjay


     

    Originally posted by TeranHawkins
     
    While Blizz did an excellent job with zone design and variety of quests (and phasing is cool although I hate Boring Tundra), Blizz has just made far too many negative changes to the game.
     

    Combining spellpower/healing
    Lack of PVP gear (especially for BG's)
    Lack of CC in instances/raids Class imbalance (WoW has turned into all druids, pallys and DK's) Too easy end game (should be fixed with Ulduar) Re-using gear models (why does my new axe look like the one I looted as a level 15?)



    Boredom is what will kill WoW, and all of these bullet points are going to be reasons (not all of them by any means) that WoW will start to decline. 
     
     

     

     

    Where to start with your problems....ok let me try:

     

     

     

    Hmm.. that looks fun.... Let me try:

     

    While Blizz did an poor job keeping older players interested for long periods of time with zone design and variety of quests (and phasing is just meh; although some people really love the chance to do 150 quests in Borean Tundra), Blizz has just made far too many positive changes to the game to fail.

     

    • Death Knights: people awaited the class for awhile (and just love it).
    • Started a DK 12:00am launch day, got to lvl 80.  Player base has a general hatred for the class and doesnt want them for groups/raiding....strike one pop!
    • Inscriptions and glyphs: Increased even further interest in crafting amongst the population that enjoys it.
    • Everyone bought them before WOTLK even came out.  Now they are just worthless and blizz didnt even do a lot of the things they said they were like decreasing cast time....strike two pop!
    • Destructible buildings in Lake Wintergrasp: Even Warhammer, a huge oRvR doesn't have this key feature.
    • Warhammer seiges are MUCH  more fun than Wintergrasp...have you even tried WAR?...strike three pop!!!
    • A new vehicle system: Enhances in-game travel and fun.
    • New vehicle system?  Where?  This must be something hidden for end game raids or just you?  Making new models IE: bears mounts and motorcycles does not make a new "system"...well you struck out already sooo
    • Achievement system: The perfect addition for a casual Wow player. Collect 'em all!
    • Your only valid point.  Achievements are fun if not pointless.
    • 10 and 25 man raiding system: This will allow even more access to areas previously reachable only by huge groups. (Form your own elite 10 man group and go kill the equivalent of Gruul with this new change).
    • Pointless as it's endlessly repetitive and the next expansion will wipe out the work done anyways

     



    Excitement for a variety of players is what will keep Wow from dying, and all of these bullet points are going to be reasons (not all of them by any means) that Wow will stay at the top of the sales charts for the majority of 2009.

    Wheeeee! What you said, in reverse!

     

    Wheeee! What you said, in logic!

     

  • Loke666Loke666 Member EpicPosts: 21,441
    Originally posted by Zorndorf


    Yep. I agree.

     
    Now for those doing the campaigning of Wow hate these days: Wow just passed its point of no return.
    I think they passed it somewhere at the end of 2007. No matter what comes out, the mainstream is Wow now and nothing is stopping the juggernaut, because ...
    ... it is now out of the hands of MMORPG players. (and glad I am).
    Not one guild, not 100 guilds, not a 1000 guilds will stop the world juggernaut in future years.
    The best PvP-er in Wow arena can say he's the best of 200 K battlegroup players. No guild will leave the juggernaut because there is nothing of honor besides the juggernaut.
    A guy not playing Wow only loses out these days and it will become even more dominant in the future because Wow has left the PC video game department.
    Basic Wow chest outsold THE PC game hit of 2008 by a wide margin (Fall out). The 4 year old game broke out of the short cut PC market and is only starting NOW to get those starting players....
    ...while the so called "hardcore" will always come back each time Blizzard makes a "cough", be it through Wow2, an expansion and mostly by just yelling "content patch".
    Hence the locked servers as everyone always returning to it somewhere in their lives.
    And for ONCE, look beyond your own locked up very personal views which have NOTHING to do with marketing a product past 10 millions paying subscribers.

     

    Well, there is one thing that sooner or later kills all computer games: Time. Sooner or later any game will be too old to keep more than a few fans.

    This have happened to all games in history and will happen to Wow also. But 'I hardly doubt that it will be a fast process like a Exodus, it will takes years.

    Still if you think Wow always will be the greatest game and expect people to play it in 20 years you are delusional. Mention one 15 year old game than anyone 'cept a few retro people are playng.

    Diablo, Half life, Quake 2, Total annhilation, Rad alert, Baldurs gate and many other old games were great but time moves on and the computers get a lot better all the time.

    We will soon see games with seasons, like it start snowing and the snow actually turns the landscape into a winter landscape. We will see graphics that looks like a real movie, Bioware are usingmotions suits on real people to get their animations look right in their upcoming game... And further away into the future we will see innovation we cant even dream of. Just download a Amiga or 64 emulator and compare those games to moder games in all ways. This is a process that continues.

    The future will be great for gamers but Wow will fade away like all other game of the past present and future. But sooner or later Blizz will make a Wow 2.

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by TeranHawkins: Warhammer seiges are MUCH more fun than Wintergrasp...have you even tried WAR?...strike three pop!!!
    Hmm.


    Originally posted by popinjay

    Originally posted by bleyzwun
    On top of the repetitivness, I have came in top 3 for contributions to Keeps and the Altdorf PQ multiple times and got low rolls. I have only won ONCE. Call it bad luck, call it whatever you want, but that's not cool. I always try my best to help my WB. I play a Black Orc and always throw on Save Da Runts on people taking damage. Always use Challenge and Hold The Line to reduce my party's taken damage. I even use Deflect Oil at keeps, which I never see anybody else use. I got fed up with never winning and heard doing damage is what gives you higher contribution points, so I switched my spec, got a 2H and did keeps all day. Again, I got top 3 contribution and still got low rolls. Unacceptable.

    I know the game isn't all about gear, but I've been wearing the same shit for so long. I'm getting sick of not being able to advance through RvR. Which, in turn is causing me to get sick of ORVR because it's always the same shit. I haven't really played in 2 weeks. I just sign on for 30 min - 1 hour and log off.


    Thats the one dirty little secret about Warhammer that hasn't gotten much play that people run into, IMO.

    It's touted as a "grind free" game where gear isn't important. The needed gear you'd need was supposed to mainly come from PvP encounters. Running things over/over was supposed to be a thing of the past and stupid, so Mythic wasn't doing that. As people hit 40, they realized this was the furthest thing from reality and Wow's grind for gear was easier. Reason was, if you spent as much time Pvping in Wow, you'd have points saved up so you would get gear sometime. Even mostly losing in Wow, you could still get PvP gear at the end of the week. In Warhammer, the contribution system is so borked, that you could literally run something 100x and be unlucky every single time. There is no eventual expectation that you will get something, and many just "move on" to the next piece from somewhere else they can get. It's been said this was done on purpose, as Mythic didn't want people geared out ready for King battles in one month after release when that part of the game hasn't been coded properly and was crashy.

    On top of that, when you look at Warhammer, there are 19 sets of armor I think. Out of that, these are somewhat "required" for endgame:

    High Level Armor Sets:

    Lesser Wards:

    Bloodlord Armor Set: Requirements: Ranks: 37-39. Found in: Bastion Stair
    Annihilator Armor Set: Requirements: Ranks: 35-39 and Renown Ranks 31-35. Found in: Tier 4 RvR

    Greater Wards:

    Sentinel Armor Set: Requirements: Rank 40. Found in: City High Level Dungeons
    Conqueror Armor Set: Requirements: Rank 40 and Renown Ranks 45-50. Found in: Fortresses

    Superior Wards:

    Darkpromise Armor Set: Requirements: Rank 40. Found in: Lost Vale
    Invader Armor Set: Requirements: Rank 40 and Renown Ranks 55-60. Found in: Invasion PQs

    Excelsior Wards:

    Warlord Armor Set: Requirements: Rank 40 and Renown Ranks 64-70. Found in: Sub-Boss PQs (in cities while contested)

    Supreme Wards:

    Sovereign Armor Set:
    Requirements: Rank 40 and Renown Ranks 73-80. Found in: King Fight (in cities while contested)



    Wheeeeeee! (geargrind..SERVERCRASH!) Sure (geargrind..SERVERCRASH!) sounds like (geargrind..SERVERCRASH!) fun to me (geargrind..SERVERCRASH!). Sign me up..... oh wait. I did. Lasted one month.

    Thanks for stopping by and playing "Guess when Wow will die!" You can now return to the official Warhammer fo...doh. Never mind. They don't have any yet.

  • Kieth75Kieth75 Member Posts: 51

    Ha you never know when exodus happens for wow. Could be soon or not so soon you know. Just if game is good or not so good, but if good with better graphic than wow and just like wow but more stuff you know then maybe. This just happens and you can not tell at all. When other games get good money and make commercial with Mr. T then you gonna know if it will hah. Maybe players get to good at wow one day and are playing it like they did on N64 and bored and move on the playstation for better fun k ind of thing maybe.

  • SonofSethSonofSeth Member UncommonPosts: 1,884
    Originally posted by Kieth75


    Ha you never know when exodus happens for wow. Could be soon or not so soon you know. Just if game is good or not so good, but if good with better graphic than wow and just like wow but more stuff you know then maybe. This just happens and you can not tell at all. When other games get good money and make commercial with Mr. T then you gonna know if it will hah. Maybe players get to good at wow one day and are playing it like they did on N64 and bored and move on the playstation for better fun k ind of thing maybe.

     

    Haha, I can feel the pain you were going trough while giving birth to that text. You deserve a cookie!  

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This discussion has been closed.