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I predict a rapid exodus of players from WoW in early 2009

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  • hidden1hidden1 Member UncommonPosts: 1,244
    Originally posted by argos5

    Originally posted by hidden1

    Originally posted by argos5


    hidden1, you have to be the most annoying DF Posterboy of all the DF fans and threads that I've lurked on.
     
    WoW is dying slowly. Once everyone hits 80 and realizes that its become unbalanced and boring. But WoW's style of PvP is very casual. DF's style of PvP is... not casual at all... I'm not an angry enough douche to really want to put myself in a PvP system that is rightly stressful when I have more important stresses in the real world to deal with.



     

    wow so i'm a douche for wanting to play DF and share my love of what it represents...

    sorry i didn't mean to make you mad

     

    Apology accepted.

     

    All you love is what DF is hoping to be. And that is all you have... your hope and speculation. And you hope upon hope, that your fellow PvPers think like you do and that they'd all funnel into DF. DF isn't the messiah, and it annoys me to see that the door-to-door love conversion coming from certain blind-faith DF's fans are only enhancing the loathing of trolls further.

    i don't want the "messiah" of  games, i just want what DF has to offer... if Aventurine can deliver then cool.. if not, oh well I guess i'll wait for Mortal Online next

     

  • -aLpHa--aLpHa- Member UncommonPosts: 852


    Originally posted by argos5
    Originally posted by Ahiles
    Originally posted by admriker4 Personally I know many that have left WoW recently. The expansion made the game way too easy and there simply wasnt enough content. One month after launch and my entire guild had finished all bosses and had full tier 7.5 sets and off-sets. Blizz isnt adding new dungeons anytime soon so I got bored and cancelled.
    Having said that, there really isnt an alternative MMO to go too. Im currently not playing anything. LOTR is the closest PVE alternative MMO but its not that great. Warhammer and it pvp focus, bleh no thanks.
    I dont see WoW losing big numbers until The Old Republic launches in 2010. Personally I dont like the direction TOR is going so Ill be playing Star Trek Online but TOR is the most likely big game that could take WoW down
     
    LoL NOT ENOUGH CONTENT?? oK Jim sure thign whateevr you say. Entire guild Full tier 7.5 killed all boses.  Ok whatever m8.


     
    Its not that there isn't enough content. Its that the game has become casual. When it comes to raiding, the top guild in the world (whatever Nihilus became), beat all the raid bosses in a week. That's cool... but even THEY thought, "wtf Blizz?"

    You shouldn't forget the fact that Nihilium actually was present in Beta and did all the bosses way before other people, anyway you can't compare such a Hardcore guild with other people and it's fine that Blizzard don't make raids for only 5% of the playerbase anymore. If they want it harder they still can do the achievements, i heard there aren't any/many people with the Black Proto Drake (reward for beating Dungeons with some crazy setups) right now.

  • admriker4admriker4 Member Posts: 1,070
    Originally posted by argos5

    Originally posted by Ahiles

    Originally posted by admriker4


    Personally I know many that have left WoW recently. The expansion made the game way too easy and there simply wasnt enough content. One month after launch and my entire guild had finished all bosses and had full tier 7.5 sets and off-sets. Blizz isnt adding new dungeons anytime soon so I got bored and cancelled.
    Having said that, there really isnt an alternative MMO to go too. Im currently not playing anything. LOTR is the closest PVE alternative MMO but its not that great. Warhammer and it pvp focus, bleh no thanks.
    I dont see WoW losing big numbers until The Old Republic launches in 2010. Personally I dont like the direction TOR is going so Ill be playing Star Trek Online but TOR is the most likely big game that could take WoW down

     

    LoL NOT ENOUGH CONTENT?? oK Jim sure thign whateevr you say. Entire guild Full tier 7.5 killed all boses.  Ok whatever m8.

     

    Its not that there isn't enough content. Its that the game has become casual. When it comes to raiding, the top guild in the world (whatever Nihilus became), beat all the raid bosses in a week. That's cool... but even THEY thought, "wtf Blizz?"



     

    maybe for the very casual player there is enough content but not for me and my friends.

    I attained exalted with all possible WOLK factions. I got all the possible cooking recipes. I have full tier 7.5 sets (off-set too). I had all shard-reward enchantment recipes. I did all possible northrend quests for the achievement. I even managed 3/5 epic pvp gear and i never pvp'd (got them with badge rewards). I had all possible badge items plus 80+ badges banked for future rewards added. I had best possible weapons both specs.

    And this wasnt just me. My family and friends all basically beat the game too. Not enough content for us so most of us cancelled. And since blizz isnt adding anything new soon I doubt we'll go back. we'll eventually get involved in another MMO till Star Trek Online and The Old Republic launch

  • admriker4admriker4 Member Posts: 1,070
    Originally posted by -aLpHa-


     

    Originally posted by argos5


    Originally posted by Ahiles


    Originally posted by admriker4
     
    Personally I know many that have left WoW recently. The expansion made the game way too easy and there simply wasnt enough content. One month after launch and my entire guild had finished all bosses and had full tier 7.5 sets and off-sets. Blizz isnt adding new dungeons anytime soon so I got bored and cancelled.

    Having said that, there really isnt an alternative MMO to go too. Im currently not playing anything. LOTR is the closest PVE alternative MMO but its not that great. Warhammer and it pvp focus, bleh no thanks.

    I dont see WoW losing big numbers until The Old Republic launches in 2010. Personally I dont like the direction TOR is going so Ill be playing Star Trek Online but TOR is the most likely big game that could take WoW down



     

    LoL NOT ENOUGH CONTENT?? oK Jim sure thign whateevr you say. Entire guild Full tier 7.5 killed all boses.  Ok whatever m8.





     

    Its not that there isn't enough content. Its that the game has become casual. When it comes to raiding, the top guild in the world (whatever Nihilus became), beat all the raid bosses in a week. That's cool... but even THEY thought, "wtf Blizz?"

     

    You shouldn't forget the fact that Nihilium actually was present in Beta and did all the bosses way before other people, anyway you can't compare such a Hardcore guild with other people and it's fine that Blizzard don't make raids for only 5% of the playerbase anymore. If they want it harder they still can do the achievements, i heard there aren't any/many people with the Black Proto Drake (reward for beating Dungeons with some crazy setups) right now.



     

    many guilds have cleared all raid bosses now. at least 2,000 usa guilds now have all raid bosses on farm status according to wowjutsu. guilds on my server that couldnt clear Kara and had barely made it into SSC have easily cleared wolk.

    game is way too easy now

  • hidden1hidden1 Member UncommonPosts: 1,244
    Originally posted by admriker4

    Originally posted by -aLpHa-


     

    Originally posted by argos5


    Originally posted by Ahiles


    Originally posted by admriker4
     
    Personally I know many that have left WoW recently. The expansion made the game way too easy and there simply wasnt enough content. One month after launch and my entire guild had finished all bosses and had full tier 7.5 sets and off-sets. Blizz isnt adding new dungeons anytime soon so I got bored and cancelled.

    Having said that, there really isnt an alternative MMO to go too. Im currently not playing anything. LOTR is the closest PVE alternative MMO but its not that great. Warhammer and it pvp focus, bleh no thanks.

    I dont see WoW losing big numbers until The Old Republic launches in 2010. Personally I dont like the direction TOR is going so Ill be playing Star Trek Online but TOR is the most likely big game that could take WoW down



     

    LoL NOT ENOUGH CONTENT?? oK Jim sure thign whateevr you say. Entire guild Full tier 7.5 killed all boses.  Ok whatever m8.





     

    Its not that there isn't enough content. Its that the game has become casual. When it comes to raiding, the top guild in the world (whatever Nihilus became), beat all the raid bosses in a week. That's cool... but even THEY thought, "wtf Blizz?"

     

    You shouldn't forget the fact that Nihilium actually was present in Beta and did all the bosses way before other people, anyway you can't compare such a Hardcore guild with other people and it's fine that Blizzard don't make raids for only 5% of the playerbase anymore. If they want it harder they still can do the achievements, i heard there aren't any/many people with the Black Proto Drake (reward for beating Dungeons with some crazy setups) right now.



     

    many guilds have cleared all raid bosses now. at least 2,000 usa guilds now have all raid bosses on farm status according to wowjutsu. guilds on my server that couldnt clear Kara and had barely made it into SSC have easily cleared wolk.

    game is way too easy now

    but how would they be able to make it harder and challenging.. what do you suggest they do?

     

  • argos5argos5 Member UncommonPosts: 219
    Originally posted by -aLpHa-


     

    Originally posted by argos5


    Originally posted by Ahiles


    Originally posted by admriker4
     
    Personally I know many that have left WoW recently. The expansion made the game way too easy and there simply wasnt enough content. One month after launch and my entire guild had finished all bosses and had full tier 7.5 sets and off-sets. Blizz isnt adding new dungeons anytime soon so I got bored and cancelled.

    Having said that, there really isnt an alternative MMO to go too. Im currently not playing anything. LOTR is the closest PVE alternative MMO but its not that great. Warhammer and it pvp focus, bleh no thanks.

    I dont see WoW losing big numbers until The Old Republic launches in 2010. Personally I dont like the direction TOR is going so Ill be playing Star Trek Online but TOR is the most likely big game that could take WoW down





     

    LoL NOT ENOUGH CONTENT?? oK Jim sure thign whateevr you say. Entire guild Full tier 7.5 killed all boses.  Ok whatever m8.





     

    Its not that there isn't enough content. Its that the game has become casual. When it comes to raiding, the top guild in the world (whatever Nihilus became), beat all the raid bosses in a week. That's cool... but even THEY thought, "wtf Blizz?"

     

    You shouldn't forget the fact that Nihilium actually was present in Beta and did all the bosses way before other people, anyway you can't compare such a Hardcore guild with other people and it's fine that Blizzard don't make raids for only 5% of the playerbase anymore. If they want it harder they still can do the achievements, i heard there aren't any/many people with the Black Proto Drake (reward for beating Dungeons with some crazy setups) right now.

     

    admriker4 enhances my point underneath what I posted.

     

    And its true, Blizzard previously made raids not as accessible, even when they went from 40-man down to 25-man. However, they even made Heroics easy. My first heroic in WotLK was a cake-walk compared to my first heroic in TBC. I suppose that's the trade-off. accessible to 95% and lose the 5% that raided hardcore.

     

    And Achievements? Cheap form of replayability. I'll give you points for that one... but its still pretty cheap and I would expect more out of Blizzard for all the money we invested in them.

  • -aLpHa--aLpHa- Member UncommonPosts: 852


    Originally posted by admriker4
    Originally posted by -aLpHa-  

    Originally posted by argos5

    Originally posted by Ahiles

    Originally posted by admriker4
     
    Personally I know many that have left WoW recently. The expansion made the game way too easy and there simply wasnt enough content. One month after launch and my entire guild had finished all bosses and had full tier 7.5 sets and off-sets. Blizz isnt adding new dungeons anytime soon so I got bored and cancelled.
    Having said that, there really isnt an alternative MMO to go too. Im currently not playing anything. LOTR is the closest PVE alternative MMO but its not that great. Warhammer and it pvp focus, bleh no thanks.
    I dont see WoW losing big numbers until The Old Republic launches in 2010. Personally I dont like the direction TOR is going so Ill be playing Star Trek Online but TOR is the most likely big game that could take WoW down
     
    LoL NOT ENOUGH CONTENT?? oK Jim sure thign whateevr you say. Entire guild Full tier 7.5 killed all boses.  Ok whatever m8.



     
    Its not that there isn't enough content. Its that the game has become casual. When it comes to raiding, the top guild in the world (whatever Nihilus became), beat all the raid bosses in a week. That's cool... but even THEY thought, "wtf Blizz?"


     
    You shouldn't forget the fact that Nihilium actually was present in Beta and did all the bosses way before other people, anyway you can't compare such a Hardcore guild with other people and it's fine that Blizzard don't make raids for only 5% of the playerbase anymore. If they want it harder they still can do the achievements, i heard there aren't any/many people with the Black Proto Drake (reward for beating Dungeons with some crazy setups) right now.

     
    many guilds have cleared all raid bosses now. at least 2,000 usa guilds now have all raid bosses on farm status according to wowjutsu. guilds on my server that couldnt clear Kara and had barely made it into SSC have easily cleared wolk.
    game is way too easy now



    Yes but since the name Nihilium came up and they actually cleared the content after 5 days of initial release (or something around those lines). I see allot more wrong on the side of those Hardcores. Soon Ulduar will see the sunlight, so we should know in which direction WoW is heading but i don't believe we will see anything like Sunweel/Black Temple again.

  • admriker4admriker4 Member Posts: 1,070
    Originally posted by hidden1

    Originally posted by admriker4

    Originally posted by -aLpHa-


     

    Originally posted by argos5


    Originally posted by Ahiles


    Originally posted by admriker4
     
    Personally I know many that have left WoW recently. The expansion made the game way too easy and there simply wasnt enough content. One month after launch and my entire guild had finished all bosses and had full tier 7.5 sets and off-sets. Blizz isnt adding new dungeons anytime soon so I got bored and cancelled.

    Having said that, there really isnt an alternative MMO to go too. Im currently not playing anything. LOTR is the closest PVE alternative MMO but its not that great. Warhammer and it pvp focus, bleh no thanks.

    I dont see WoW losing big numbers until The Old Republic launches in 2010. Personally I dont like the direction TOR is going so Ill be playing Star Trek Online but TOR is the most likely big game that could take WoW down



     

    LoL NOT ENOUGH CONTENT?? oK Jim sure thign whateevr you say. Entire guild Full tier 7.5 killed all boses.  Ok whatever m8.





     

    Its not that there isn't enough content. Its that the game has become casual. When it comes to raiding, the top guild in the world (whatever Nihilus became), beat all the raid bosses in a week. That's cool... but even THEY thought, "wtf Blizz?"

     

    You shouldn't forget the fact that Nihilium actually was present in Beta and did all the bosses way before other people, anyway you can't compare such a Hardcore guild with other people and it's fine that Blizzard don't make raids for only 5% of the playerbase anymore. If they want it harder they still can do the achievements, i heard there aren't any/many people with the Black Proto Drake (reward for beating Dungeons with some crazy setups) right now.



     

    many guilds have cleared all raid bosses now. at least 2,000 usa guilds now have all raid bosses on farm status according to wowjutsu. guilds on my server that couldnt clear Kara and had barely made it into SSC have easily cleared wolk.

    game is way too easy now

    but how would they be able to make it harder and challenging.. what do you suggest they do?

     



     

    Half of the bosses in WOLK are simple tank and spank. That needs to change. Vashj in SSC comes to mind for a decent challenge.

    Reduce epic drops from bosses from 4 to 1-2. Guilds are gearing up so fast that dungeons become quickly farm status.

    remove tier gear from badge rewards. even bad players can get their hands on tier epics without ever having to raid.

    remove epic pvp badge rewards. again, a bad player gets access to cheap epics from badges.

    simply put, the game is too easy when even a pug 25 man raid can clear stuff.

  • hidden1hidden1 Member UncommonPosts: 1,244
    Originally posted by admriker4

    Originally posted by hidden1

    Originally posted by admriker4

    Originally posted by -aLpHa-


     

    Originally posted by argos5


    Originally posted by Ahiles


    Originally posted by admriker4
     
    Personally I know many that have left WoW recently. The expansion made the game way too easy and there simply wasnt enough content. One month after launch and my entire guild had finished all bosses and had full tier 7.5 sets and off-sets. Blizz isnt adding new dungeons anytime soon so I got bored and cancelled.

    Having said that, there really isnt an alternative MMO to go too. Im currently not playing anything. LOTR is the closest PVE alternative MMO but its not that great. Warhammer and it pvp focus, bleh no thanks.

    I dont see WoW losing big numbers until The Old Republic launches in 2010. Personally I dont like the direction TOR is going so Ill be playing Star Trek Online but TOR is the most likely big game that could take WoW down



     

    LoL NOT ENOUGH CONTENT?? oK Jim sure thign whateevr you say. Entire guild Full tier 7.5 killed all boses.  Ok whatever m8.





     

    Its not that there isn't enough content. Its that the game has become casual. When it comes to raiding, the top guild in the world (whatever Nihilus became), beat all the raid bosses in a week. That's cool... but even THEY thought, "wtf Blizz?"

     

    You shouldn't forget the fact that Nihilium actually was present in Beta and did all the bosses way before other people, anyway you can't compare such a Hardcore guild with other people and it's fine that Blizzard don't make raids for only 5% of the playerbase anymore. If they want it harder they still can do the achievements, i heard there aren't any/many people with the Black Proto Drake (reward for beating Dungeons with some crazy setups) right now.



     

    many guilds have cleared all raid bosses now. at least 2,000 usa guilds now have all raid bosses on farm status according to wowjutsu. guilds on my server that couldnt clear Kara and had barely made it into SSC have easily cleared wolk.

    game is way too easy now

    but how would they be able to make it harder and challenging.. what do you suggest they do?

     



     

    Half of the bosses in WOLK are simple tank and spank. That needs to change. Vashj in SSC comes to mind for a decent challenge.

    Reduce epic drops from bosses from 4 to 1-2. Guilds are gearing up so fast that dungeons become quickly farm status.

    remove tier gear from badge rewards. even bad players can get their hands on tier epics without ever having to raid.

    remove epic pvp badge rewards. again, a bad player gets access to cheap epics from badges.

    simply put, the game is too easy when even a pug 25 man raid can clear stuff.

    it seems that big guild camping bosses seem to be killing it for the rest of the gaming community... maybe they should implement "Carebear" day or something like that... where non-guilders are allowed to form boss raids... and anyone in a guild caught there will suffer some rules violation consequence (whatever that may be...)... anywho this could be a "non-guild" scheduled event or time when solo artists can team up w/ other solo-non-guild players for a shot at boss raiding... though I imagine a lot of guild players cheating by using non-guild alts tho... well just my 2cents

     

  • MwajiMwaji Member Posts: 229
    Originally posted by BarakIII

    Originally posted by Mwaji


    This happens to every game, once players smell the red meat of something new that is good, you can start counting down. Especially ones that have things players miss but WoW doesn't have or is too lazy to implement. Like player housing, better crafting, balanced pvp, better graphics etc.
    WoW will keep a stable base of players who enjoy dungeon raiding but the core pvp groups gonna go elsewhere and some already have. Again this exodus would be far less a problem if The New Dev team at Wow were not treating the game like a private server, where it is my why or no way with very odd ideas ( no ideas ) on class balance, progressively more EZ mode Raiding, really they tried to turn to game is to Everquest and since WoW was beating EQ it really is confusing. If this were Vanilla WoW vs any new game it would have to be really really good even with a 4 year jump in graphics, but BC made it easier and WOTLK just decided to tell many players where  to get off and what to do when they get there, their  not taking it well.
     
     

    Are you kidding? Every WoW player I know loves WotLK. About the only complaint I hear about it is the armor all looks the same, but as far as every other aspect of the game goes, players are loving it.

    Well everyone you may know are not the same people I know, many players I know left after BC and a few more still left during WOTLK , your friends may find it enjoyable to EZ mode through handicap parking level dungeons and revel in broken pvp with your newly rerolled DKs but many of us are just not digging it.

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539

    Until Wow's numbers start taking a sharp nose dose south, this is all non-point isn't it? I mean this thread and ones like it.

    I always see people post "I beat it with my friends and so we left, WoTLK is way too easy." Of course this may be true in your and 9 family/friends case, but think about the total amount of subscriptions Blizzard has. This does not phase them, I bet they didn't even notice you guys walk out. The small amount that leave are being restocked because fully 90% of the people playing Wow probably never experienced ANY end game content at all, no matter how "easy" it is/was. Think about how they regenerate new subscriptions easily. Based on WoTLK sales AND subscriptions past 30 days since release, those guys sleep good at night there I bet. This is not a worry to them.

    Now if a subscriber and only FOUR of his friends left a typical MMO, now you are talking trouble for those guys. You'd have to do.. oh, I don't know... maybe free trials very shortly after release, free server transfers to plug huge population holes, in-game gimmicks to MAKE people fight where YOU want them to fight and lots of future promises to keep subscribers happy probably. Yeah, a game like that would really have to burn the midnight oil on the top floors nightly.

    If WoTLK content is easy, it's probably a direct result of the complaints Blizzard got that a lot of TBC raid stuff was TOO hard by most guilds. After SSC, most guilds simply could not keep a steady enough stream of successes. Sunwell Plateau was usually left empty on most servers, cause guilds couldn't beat it, save a tiny few. Most people playing WoW whined so much they had to make WoTLK easier.

    That right there is the difference between Blizzard and Mythic. WoW folks wanted easier after TBC, they got it. Warhammer folks still cannot get their regular PROMISED content fixed after four months.


    You also have to ask yourself.. If Wow is going downhill as fast as people are posting in here, why would they make content EASIER with so many new games coming out that are supposed to be challenged and skillful like..cough.. Warhammer? You'd think they'd make tougher content to challenge their subscribers, so they'd want to stay. But Blizzard went easier, according to most of the posts here.

    I bet they got a look at Warhammer, AoC and some other games in development somehow, scratched their heads and said "Stick with easy again on WoTLK. We won't have anything to fear from those guys. Our fans won't leave for those guys, no matter how simple our content is."

  • hidden1hidden1 Member UncommonPosts: 1,244
    Originally posted by popinjay


    Until Wow's numbers start taking a sharp nose dose south, this is all non-point isn't it? I mean this thread and ones like it.
    I always see people post "I beat it with my friends and so we left, WoTLK is way too easy." Of course this may be true in your and 9 family/friends case, but think about the total amount of subscriptions Blizzard has. This does not phase them, I bet they didn't even notice you guys walk out. The small amount that leave are being restocked because fully 90% of the people playing Wow probably never experienced ANY end game content at all, no matter how "easy" it is/was. Think about how they regenerate new subscriptions easily. Based on WoTLK sales AND subscriptions past 30 days since release, those guys sleep good at night there I bet. This is not a worry to them.
    Now if a subscriber and only FOUR of his friends left a typical MMO, now you are talking trouble for those guys. You'd have to do.. oh, I don't know... maybe free trials very shortly after release, free server transfers to plug huge population holes, in-game gimmicks to MAKE people fight where YOU want them to fight and lots of future promises to keep subscribers happy probably. Yeah, a game like that would really have to burn the midnight oil on the top floors nightly.
    If WoTLK content is easy, it's probably a direct result of the complaints Blizzard got that a lot of TBC raid stuff was TOO hard by most guilds. After SSC, most guilds simply could not keep a steady enough stream of successes. Sunwell Plateau was usually left empty on most servers, cause guilds couldn't beat it, save a tiny few. Most people playing WoW whined so much they had to make WoTLK easier.
    That right there is the difference between Blizzard and Mythic. WoW folks wanted easier after TBC, they got it. Warhammer folks still cannot get their regular PROMISED content fixed after four months.
     


    You also have to ask yourself.. If Wow is going downhill as fast as people are posting in here, why would they make content EASIER with so many new games coming out that are supposed to be challenged and skillful like..cough.. Warhammer? You'd think they'd make tougher content to challenge their subscribers, so they'd want to stay. But Blizzard went easier, according to most of the posts here.
    I bet they got a look at Warhammer, AoC and some other games in development somehow, scratched their heads and said "Stick with easy again on WoTLK. We won't have anything to fear from those guys. Our fans won't leave for those guys, no matter how simple our content is."

    Reminds me of the mentality of the Roman Empire, when it' was at it's height of decadence... and just before it fell into decay.

     

  • Originally posted by mrnutz1065


    I dunno if there will be a "rapid exodus" but i certainly believe that WoW has reached its peak. I said that to myself a year ago so I may be wrong though :P
    Me and WoW have come to an end, and I know many people are getting a little tired. Maybe wrath will be WoW's swan song, more than likely WoW will go for another couple of expansions though.



     

    I am not expecting any "rapid exodus".

    I do however expect a gradual but sure decline over the next few months, I would guess from 10-15%.

    That may not sound like much, but 10% of 11.5 million is 1.15 million x say $10 a month lost. That is almost as much as congress wastes per second.

    I don't know about other servers, but the one I most recently played on was definately declining. Almost 20% of a guild I was in either just stopped showing up or said they had cancelled.

    I think that many, like me, are not going to other games, they are just giving up on fantasy mmo's - including WOW.

    I broke out my CIV4 CD last week...

  • NightbladeX1NightbladeX1 Member Posts: 201

    You had me until "WAR is a high quality MMO".

     

    No, just no.

     

     

  • misatok579misatok579 Member Posts: 14

    I agree with your prediction of WoW actually.  They claim they have 11.5 million subs on their website - however if you check wowcensus.com you will find that of all the pvp/pve servers and both factions - not including lvls 1-9 - you get a figure of 7,886,489 granted this is not including lvls 1-9 since most players have alts those lvls - this figure is from today on their website if you search all realms, all factions.  I don't believe much of what they release - IF they were losing subs they wouldn't post it I wouldn't think.  I think that WoW has honestly had its day in the sun and now most subs, myself included, are just looking for a new one to run to a.s.a.p.  The game is too congested with teenagers and customer service has dropped since TBC came out - its taken me 8 hrs to get a GM response and that's just unacceptable in my book.  Anyway, the lack of good mmorpgs is what prevents most of us from leaving.   But I definitely agree with your prediction regarding WoW. 

    The only other one I'm interested in is Aion - I hope your prediction isn't correct because I'm really looking forward to trying this game. 

  • loves2playloves2play Member Posts: 26

    WoW is epic fail, people just don't won't to say buh bye to their lvl 70 toons LOL

  • ScalebaneScalebane Member UncommonPosts: 1,881

    by the time wow starts losing subs we will have blizzs next mmo and thats where most of their current subs will probably go.  none of these other companies have made anything that has interested me for very long, although i do jump on eve off and on just not enough to keep me constantly going with it.

    i won't play Darkfall, just never cared for PVP, hope it works out for those who love PVP

    I'm hoping Star trek online is good, that's the only real one i'm looking at, i'll try out the new star wars mmo, champions online, the agency, and DC online but i don't think those will hold me either.

    image

    "The great thing about human language is that it prevents us from sticking to the matter at hand."
    - Lewis Thomas

  • MrVicchioMrVicchio Member Posts: 598
    Originally posted by Arthousesig


    For those who might remember me, I predicted the rapid demise of Age of Conan back in June 2008, looking purely at the game mechanics and the nature of the game itself. This was at the same time review magazines were throwing around scores of 9/10 for AOC, but it was obvious the game would die from playing the game, which is how I make my predictions :)
    I am a long time MMO player starting off in Ultima Online days, through L2, AO, EVE, EQ1 (but not 2) WoW, WAR and LOTRO.
     
    Looking at the incentive structure of the current top MMOs by subscription numbers, these are my predictions for January-April 2009:
     
    1. WoW: currently has the largest number of subs although this has already dropped down to around 9 million from a high of 11.x million. Around 6 million of the remaining 9 million subs is from the China/East Asia region, and these are likely to drop off the fastest as EU and US subs drop off. The reason for the drop will be a lack of elite PVE content and the migration of top-end guilds to one of the competitors, which the masses will then follow. The nature of the mmo market is such that a game can very rapidly drop in popularity as gamers are a fickle bunch. The demise of WoW is here, and it will be surprisingly swift (2-3 months with 500k subs lost in EU/US each month, much faster in china)
     
    2. WAR: currently the 2nd largest mmo in subs, although a very high quality mmo its fortress endgame is currently broken (although its city sieges are not) making the #1 priority for Mythic to fix endgame fortress sieges. The success of this game depends on how fast and how well they can fix this part of the RVR endgame. although the PVE instances and the rest of the RVR experience are all top notch. WAR is the likely destination of all the current top mmo guilds and players from WoW and other games
     
    3. EVE: not often mentioned but this mmo has carved out its niche and is holding steady, doing what it does in a large sandbox space environment that appeals to the hardcore sandbox PVP crowd (in space)
     
    4. LOTRO: another niche PVE game, this one has been ticking along nicely with its new xpac but one can't help but feel it should have done better given the franchise
     
    Other predictions:
     
    a) Darkfall will be a disappointment, the budget is low and the game is very far from finished, and is nowhere near the level of polish of WoW/WAR/LOTRO
    b) Aion will appeal to some of the old L2ers, but will likely not touch the mainstream (but will be a good mmo game for those who love the asian-styled grind mmos)

     

    Having played most MMO's and being a fan of WAR I tend to agree with you on this.  I've been forced back to WoW for my sister in law and wife, and they are not as, impressed with WoTLK as they initially thought they were.  

    Always change your signature.

  • skychainskychain Member UncommonPosts: 66

    From what ive heard ingame and from friends and so on is that most of the Wow players are going to move to Diablo 2 and starcraft 2 both bizzard games so i believe blizzard wont care if WoW goes because they have all these games to come across too lol.

    Played: Archlord, GW, RFO, Knight Online, Silkroad, WoW, Rappelz, shaiya, Flyff, Fury, Space Cowboy, Perfect World Beta, Rakion, sword of the new world, Linage 1 and 2, Savage 1


    Playing: CSS

  • BarakIIIBarakIII Member Posts: 800
    Originally posted by Mwaji

    Originally posted by BarakIII

    Originally posted by Mwaji


    This happens to every game, once players smell the red meat of something new that is good, you can start counting down. Especially ones that have things players miss but WoW doesn't have or is too lazy to implement. Like player housing, better crafting, balanced pvp, better graphics etc.
    WoW will keep a stable base of players who enjoy dungeon raiding but the core pvp groups gonna go elsewhere and some already have. Again this exodus would be far less a problem if The New Dev team at Wow were not treating the game like a private server, where it is my why or no way with very odd ideas ( no ideas ) on class balance, progressively more EZ mode Raiding, really they tried to turn to game is to Everquest and since WoW was beating EQ it really is confusing. If this were Vanilla WoW vs any new game it would have to be really really good even with a 4 year jump in graphics, but BC made it easier and WOTLK just decided to tell many players where  to get off and what to do when they get there, their  not taking it well.
     
     

    Are you kidding? Every WoW player I know loves WotLK. About the only complaint I hear about it is the armor all looks the same, but as far as every other aspect of the game goes, players are loving it.

    Well everyone you may know are not the same people I know, many players I know left after BC and a few more still left during WOTLK , your friends may find it enjoyable to EZ mode through handicap parking level dungeons and revel in broken pvp with your newly rerolled DKs but many of us are just not digging it.

     

    No, more likely most players actually have a life outside of gaming and have little time to do all you've done. They don't read everthing printed about each and every boss. They don't play 10 or 12 hours a day like some people must. They'd have to play at least that much to finish all content in a week. No, most players may play 10 to 12 hours a WEEK at most, probably less. They don't have the kind of time it takes to play so much, and when it comes right down to it they wouldn't want to. It's a waste of life.

    All these players claiming they've finished content and have quit WoW because it's so easy...and yet subcriptions only increase. You think you're in the majority, when in fact you're in the minority and there aren't enough people like you to even phase subscription numbers when you leave.

  • BarakIIIBarakIII Member Posts: 800
    Originally posted by skychain


    From what ive heard ingame and from friends and so on is that most of the Wow players are going to move to Diablo 2 and starcraft 2 both bizzard games so i believe blizzard wont care if WoW goes because they have all these games to come across too lol.

     

    Neither of those games are mmo's and won't begin to make Blizzard anywhere near the amount of money that WoW has even if they sold twice as many of those games as they did copies of WoW. So yeah, if subscriptions fell off, they'd care. But I seriously doubt you'll see a major fall off of subscriptons. It may drop a bit over the coming months, but it won't be as much as being predicted here.

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by BarakIII
    Originally posted by Mwaji
    Originally posted by BarakIII
    Originally posted by Mwaji This happens to every game, once players smell the red meat of something new that is good, you can start counting down. Especially ones that have things players miss but WoW doesn't have or is too lazy to implement. Like player housing, better crafting, balanced pvp, better graphics etc.
    WoW will keep a stable base of players who enjoy dungeon raiding but the core pvp groups gonna go elsewhere and some already have. Again this exodus would be far less a problem if The New Dev team at Wow were not treating the game like a private server, where it is my why or no way with very odd ideas ( no ideas ) on class balance, progressively more EZ mode Raiding, really they tried to turn to game is to Everquest and since WoW was beating EQ it really is confusing. If this were Vanilla WoW vs any new game it would have to be really really good even with a 4 year jump in graphics, but BC made it easier and WOTLK just decided to tell many players where  to get off and what to do when they get there, their  not taking it well.
     
     
    Are you kidding? Every WoW player I know loves WotLK. About the only complaint I hear about it is the armor all looks the same, but as far as every other aspect of the game goes, players are loving it.


    Well everyone you may know are not the same people I know, many players I know left after BC and a few more still left during WOTLK , your friends may find it enjoyable to EZ mode through handicap parking level dungeons and revel in broken pvp with your newly rerolled DKs but many of us are just not digging it.


     
    No, more likely most players actually have a life outside of gaming and have little time to do all you've done. They don't read everthing printed about each and every boss. They don't play 10 or 12 hours a day like some people must. They'd have to play at least that much to finish all content in a week. No, most players may play 10 to 12 hours a WEEK at most, probably less. They don't have the kind of time it takes to play so much, and when it comes right down to it they wouldn't want to. It's a waste of life.
    All these players claiming they've finished content and have quit WoW because it's so easy...and yet subcriptions only increase. You think you're in the majority, when in fact you're in the minority and there aren't enough people like you to even phase subscription numbers when you leave.

    Finally, some sane posting lol. I was starting to think the OP was like a Svengali on these folks and people were scared to tell the truth, lest they be called a Wow fanboi or something.

    I was getting that feeling I got when I saw people talking about voting for George Bush.. twice. They just were not making ANY sense, but it kind of steamrolled. People were looking dead at reality right in the face and seeing something totally different ("George Bush is gonna be a great president, you'll see!")

    Well, at least we know where they went. Back to the "Wow is dying" threads.

  • ElendilasXElendilasX Member Posts: 243

    One day there maybe stop of growth and maybe fall of subscriptions. That will probably will happen if blizzard stop releasing huge expansions. For casual players it is more then enough to play until next expansion. Of course there is many hardcore player, but my guess (without any ground, just experience in mmorpg) hardcore is like 1% of population, and also most of them are crazy enough to grind for top items in same dungeon for months until expansion is released and they have to repeat.

    Personally for me WoW is idiotical, so I quit: I dont care about blizzard, it dont care about me, everyone happy.

     If  you like WoW, good for you, enjoy it as much as you can, at least that what life is for, your enjoyment. If dont like it just ignore and try something more challenging like Eve or something else.

    In worst case they will create World Of Starcraft and go on. :D

  • GravargGravarg Member UncommonPosts: 3,424

    I'd have to agree with your predictions about WoW.  I just played my 30 days of WotLK, and I can say that the Death Knight from level 55-58ish is very fun, since it's all brand new, with lots of new innovations (I love the frost wyrm flying quest hehe).  After that though it is the exact same stuff as the game was before.  I can't hold myself to spend the same amount of time I did to level through Outland again, just to get to Northrend (which is alot of the same old same old).  My personal opinion, but Blizzard would've done much better off released 2 hero classes with WotLK, the other being Necromancer.  The Necromancer could've easily fit in the same storyline/area as the Death Knight.  There are some of us who absolutely hate melee classes, I'm one of them.  I've always liked either Druid (the old EQ type) or Pet classes.  I did level my warlock to level 80 and got into alot of different dungeons.  I can say that the storyline of the dungeons is very good, but again it's the same as TBC was imho.  I will not be renewing my sub, and I wish I could get my money back for the box, but oh well. 

     

    WAR is probably the best P2P game out right now.  I'm probably biased since I love Mythic since they made my favorite game of all time (DAoC).  If they fix the fort sieges then it would be even better.  Still sieging towns is fffuuunnn.

     

    EVE, I never really liked.  I'm not much for the space-ships and what not RPGs.  I do like sci-fi, just not with ships.  Stargate Worlds will hopefully deliver on what they promise, and several people will probably leave EVE for SGW.

     

    LOTRO is a very fun game.  Probably ranked 5th on my all-time MMO list (DAoC, FFXI, NWN (my first), and EQ).  This game has very good potential if they would just work on the monster play.  The PvE aspect of the game is very nice and well done, realy needs no more work.  Monster play is fun, but monsters just don't stand a chance until around rank 7 or 8.  The big problem with Monster Play is that noone plays it.  I consider the concept of the Monster Play to be very good.  Sauron and his forces uses quantity over quality.  Thus Monster Players should be weaker, but in greater numbers, but noone plays monsters so it doesn't work out.  If they added some incentive for people to play as monsters then this game would probably move up on my list into maybe 3rd.

     

    Darkfall and Aion really don't interest me at all.  Darkfall from my understanding will just be a sandbox gankfest.  Everyone dies in 1-4 hits and you lose everything on your person when you die.../wrists.  Aion hasn't gotten much publicity imho.  From what I've seen it harkens back to EQ, which I like, but it looks a little too much like several f2p asian grinders I've played before, just with better environment graphics.

     

    just my take on the future.

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by Gravarg
    I'd have to agree with your predictions about WoW.  I just played my 30 days of WotLK, and I can say that the Death Knight from level 55-58ish is very fun, since it's all brand new, with lots of new innovations (I love the frost wyrm flying quest hehe).  After that though it is the exact same stuff as the game was before.  I can't hold myself to spend the same amount of time I did to level through Outland again, just to get to Northrend (which is alot of the same old same old).  My personal opinion, but Blizzard would've done much better off released 2 hero classes with WotLK, the other being Necromancer.  The Necromancer could've easily fit in the same storyline/area as the Death Knight.  There are some of us who absolutely hate melee classes, I'm one of them.  I've always liked either Druid (the old EQ type) or Pet classes.  I did level my warlock to level 80 and got into alot of different dungeons.  I can say that the storyline of the dungeons is very good, but again it's the same as TBC was imho.  I will not be renewing my sub, and I wish I could get my money back for the box, but oh well. 
     
    WAR is probably the best P2P game out right now.  I'm probably biased since I love Mythic since they made my favorite game of all time (DAoC).  If they fix the fort sieges then it would be even better.  Still sieging towns is fffuuunnn.

    You agree with the OP that:


    (2-3 months with 500k subs lost in EU/US each month, much faster in china)

    Can I ask this.. what are they passing around on the battlefield before you guys start the pvp? Pep talks or drugs? And can I have some?

    This one is the funniest you said:


    WAR is probably the best P2P game out right now. I'm probably biased since I love Mythic since they made my favorite game of all time (DAoC). If they fix the fort sieges then it would be even better. Still sieging towns is fffuuunnn.

    Fix the fort siege??? Apparently you haven't been to the WarAlliance sites today to see official 2009 news for Warhammer. Mythic has given up trying to fix the forts, and just put in population caps for your gaming pleasure to stop the crashes. Your Fort "fix" is a population cap. That's right.. in a world where it was promised massive, unrestricted war, they are essentially restricting the core part of the endgame. Next will be your instancing and won't that be fun too? You log on and head to a capped fort siege and get warped right back to a warcamp ala WoW, the game which is about to fold up, you say. Okay dude really... can you guys pass some of it and stop hogging it all??

    You guys are here circle-jerking about Wow losing 500k subs this year due to no elite raid content while this is going on in your backyard?

    Someone could write a book about a Warfanboi's gullibility, but ironically, it wouldn't be believed.

This discussion has been closed.