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I predict a rapid exodus of players from WoW in early 2009

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  • OziiusOziius Member UncommonPosts: 1,405

    I have quit WoW about 7 times and came back. I'm currently playing again. I predict that you will be incorrect. I am still waiting in ques to get in to my server, and the moment they relase ANY new content, people line up around the block to get it.

    WoW is not going anywhere fast, and with future expansions, will continue to rule the market due to extreme polish, low requirements and kid friendly content. You may have been correct about that piece of cornshit AoC, but you're off the mark here bud.

  • MwajiMwaji Member Posts: 229
    Originally posted by popinjay
     
     

    Originally posted by Mwaji

    You know, my thinking is this. WoWs defenders keep saying wheres the WoW killer or that no game will ever kill wow. That being said, I don't think their needs to be. How many players in SWG left out of sheer bitterness? The only wow killer their needs to be is wow itself, and it's doing a fine job on it's own right now.

     

    LAWLSAUCE! Thanks for the laugh, buddy!

     

    Your welcome Popinjay, and thank you as well for another meaningless response. Again using WOTLK opening sales as some sort of excuse. But I understand you haven't been around that long I guess, live and learn.

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by Mwaji
    Originally posted by popinjay
     
     

    Originally posted by Mwaji
    You know, my thinking is this. WoWs defenders keep saying wheres the WoW killer or that no game will ever kill wow. That being said, I don't think their needs to be. How many players in SWG left out of sheer bitterness? The only wow killer their needs to be is wow itself, and it's doing a fine job on it's own right now.
     
    LAWLSAUCE! Thanks for the laugh, buddy!
     


    Your welcome Popinjay, and thank you as well for another meaningless response. Again using WOTLK opening sales as some sort of excuse. But I understand you haven't been around that long I guess, live and learn.


    Sorry you didnt read the WHOLE list, but The Burning Crusade and Original recipe WoW also beat out Warhammer those months too, not just WOTLK.

    Yeah, facts are meaningless to you I guess, lol. But in the real world, they usually matter when trying to show a point.

  • templargatemplarga Member UncommonPosts: 1,964
    Originally posted by Mwaji

    Originally posted by popinjay
     
     

    Originally posted by Mwaji

    You know, my thinking is this. WoWs defenders keep saying wheres the WoW killer or that no game will ever kill wow. That being said, I don't think their needs to be. How many players in SWG left out of sheer bitterness? The only wow killer their needs to be is wow itself, and it's doing a fine job on it's own right now.

     

    LAWLSAUCE! Thanks for the laugh, buddy!

     

    Your welcome Popinjay, and thank you as well for another meaningless response. Again using WOTLK opening sales as some sort of excuse. But I understand you haven't been around that long I guess, live and learn.

    He also posted December which is the month after WotLk but it doesn't matter. You do not care care about facts and data or anything of the sort. And even if you forgo WotLK, explain why all of the other versions are there in the list for December.

  • KurushKurush Member Posts: 1,303
    Originally posted by Arthousesig


    Blah de blah

    I agree that when a polished contender comes along, WoW may bleed subs rapidly.  Losing 10% in 2 months?  No, I don't think so.  I think WoW will likely follow the decline curve that the original Lineage did once it peaked and started losing players to its sequel and other games.  That should be your model.

    The day will come for sure, but the game that starts siphoning off WoW's playerbase in large numbers is _NOT_ WAR.  Give me a break.  Don't get me wrong.  WAR is not doing badly.  With the exception of the Lineage franchise and WoW, every P2P MMORPG release to date has seen a massive launch surge followed by a steep drop-off, in turn followed by steady growth.  So really speaking, the game is not doing badly.  It's just not experience a phenomenal WoW/Lineage-type growth curve.  However, the game that eventually takes WoW's spot will _have_ to follow that kind of growth curve.

    If WoW does lose subscribers this quarter, it won't be to WAR.  They'll just quit the genre for now.

  • stonecreamerstonecreamer Member Posts: 9

    Pretty stupid predictions, but everyone is entitled to their own opinion. WoWm is not only the best MMO/Game out right now, but is becoming a worldwide phenomenon. Watch TV, you will almost always see a WoW commercial on there. People love it. Not too hard, not too easy, damn near any age can play it. And like I always tell people who despise WoW.

    "I guess if it does not have the words Halo or Gears of War marked on it, then it must suck."

    Stonecreamer

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    NPD PC Games Sales: January 2008


    1. World Of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King Expansion Pack
    2. Spore
    3. World Of Warcraft: Battle Chest
    4. Left 4 Dead
    5. Fallout 3
    6. The Sims 2 Double Deluxe
    7. Call Of Duty: World At War
    8. Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3
    9. World Of Warcraft
    10. World Of Warcraft: Burning Crusade Expansion Pack
    11. Grand Theft Auto IV
    12. The Sims 2 Apartment Life Expansion Pack
    13. Warcraft III Battle Chest
    14. Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning
    15. Far Cry 2
    16. Diablo Battle Chest
    17. Lord of the Rings: Conquest
    18. MS Flight Simulator X: Gold
    19. Civilization IV
    20. Spore Galactic Edition


    Ok, in case you haven't heard... WoW is dying, will be dead this year and WOTLK is a immense failure.


    If you are still playing WoW, you can stop now.

    Wait.. its March and WoW's not dead?? Well, I'm sure it will die within the nine months left as predicted.

  • KnightblastKnightblast Member Posts: 1,798

    The OP actually looks a little quaint here, two months down the road.

    As far as I can tell from Dalaran and Orgrimmar on the server I dabble on (where Horde are outnumbered), the place is packed still.  Wintergrasp groups have two full raids.  Constant LFG spamming for instances and heroics.  I don't see people leaving en masse for Warhammer, that's for sure.  Warhammer is such an inferior game from the production standpoint and variety of gameplay standpoint that it will always be nothing more than a niche game compared to WoW.

    People have been predicting WoW's demise since early 2005 -- I remember the posts then about how the game was too easy, World of Easycraft they were calling it, and how this would mean in six months noone would be playing WoW anymore. 

  • aleosaleos Member UncommonPosts: 1,934
    Originally posted by Xasapis


    Exodus of players from WoW to where?
    Looking past the funny claims that there is a population decline (queues at peak hours even now is a good indication of the opposite in my book), I still fail to see the logic in the whole post. If WoW is a tank and is supposedly leaking, the content will move to in a place with similar properties. I can only think of one alternatve at the moment, LOTRO, and it wasn't mentioned at all. Instead all that was mentioned were a number of PvP games.
    The problem for those of us that are searching for an alternative to WoW PvE gameplay and content is that the choices are limited and the grip needs to be strong enough to pull us out of an already established community. How are you supposed to convince your raiding friends to move to a PvP focused game with limited PvE coverage is beyond me.
    Aion that you so easily dismissed has bigger potential in the PvE front that WAR will ever have, mainly because the focus of the game is different. I'm also expecting good things from the new Star Wars game, I guess I value a good story in an interesting world more than anything.



     

    None of them have to go anywhere. They could just not play. People beeing burnt out on the same old shit over and over and over again. i havnt bought any MMOs in like a year because all the ones that come out are shiet.

  • HydrobluntHydroblunt Member Posts: 282
    Originally posted by Novaseeker


    The OP actually looks a little quaint here, two months down the road.
    As far as I can tell from Dalaran and Orgrimmar on the server I dabble on (where Horde are outnumbered), the place is packed still.  Wintergrasp groups have two full raids.  Constant LFG spamming for instances and heroics.  I don't see people leaving en masse for Warhammer, that's for sure.  Warhammer is such an inferior game from the production standpoint and variety of gameplay standpoint that it will always be nothing more than a niche game compared to WoW.
    People have been predicting WoW's demise since early 2005 -- I remember the posts then about how the game was too easy, World of Easycraft they were calling it, and how this would mean in six months noone would be playing WoW anymore. 



     

    Why do WoW fanbois hate the other games so much?  WAR is a better game from a PvP perspective and hence has a strong base due to that.  WoW PvP is a joke that got funnier every year.  WoW PvE is played out and dumbed down, so the appeal is gone to a true MMORPG players.  You WoW fanbois hate anything not WoW, so your opinion means squat.  How do I know?  When I started playing WAR, I kept saying to myself 'WTF are they talking about, this is a very good game"

    Maybe 10-20% of the players I used to play WoW with are still around.  So keep on deluding yourself about that WoW is doing better and better.  I did not play with terribads who are the overwhelming majority of WoW right now.

    WoW is finished, its only growth is in China, which is nothing more than a marketing ploy.  The development staff is being moved to their new MMO.  That's a big hint.

    Playing: EvE, Warhammer free unlimited trial, Allods Online
    Played: Anarchy Online, WoW, Warhammer, AoC, Ryzom. Aion
    Strongly Recommend: Ryzom, EvE, Allods Online

  • HydrobluntHydroblunt Member Posts: 282
    Originally posted by Pancreatic


    WoW will die. And, as some people have pointed out, Blizzard will be the one to kill it. I predict in about 7-10 years (considering the lengthy time they take on development) Blizzard will announce WoW2 and will allow subscribers to transfer their existing accounts ,characters and all, to the new game on release. I believe the new game will have eye-bleedingly realistic visuals, and enormously difficult/rewarding high-level content to make transferring established characters  worthwile.  And i believe there wont be a lot WoW players, lapsed or otherwise, that will be able to resist picking up where they left off, starting fresh, or continuing unbroken into the sequel. At least, thats what I hope happens. I kind of miss the good old days of RPG's like the Wizardry series where you could import your entire party from the previous game into the sequels allowing you to use  the same characters from the very begining all the way to the bitter end.



     

    Exactly!

    There is no WoW killer.  Blizzard is doing a great job themselves.  I am an example, I left for no particular game, my whole WoW experience was ruined with the Xpac and patch 3.0.  My friend did the same, he started WAR, I joined as well and we both like it a lot.  Now that I started looking at other MMOs again, no reason to ever go back to WoW.  Well, maybe if they do vanilla WoW servers with tweaks and adjustments.

    Playing: EvE, Warhammer free unlimited trial, Allods Online
    Played: Anarchy Online, WoW, Warhammer, AoC, Ryzom. Aion
    Strongly Recommend: Ryzom, EvE, Allods Online

  • CryptorCryptor Member UncommonPosts: 523

    Everyone knows that WoW numbers are bloated by Asian numbers , and those subscribers numbers are ify atbest depending how you define a subscriber.

     

    I ( along with many others ) left WoW for WAR and I just love this game, it is soo much better imho, it;s hard to explain.  This patch 1.2 for WAR just made my mind up for sure that this is the game that I will stay with for a looong time to come ( I was with WoW for 3 yeras ).

    I highly recommend that anyone tired with wow tries WAR or LotRO ( but LotRO only if you are a PvE player ).  These are the two best mmorpgs out there imho, especially now that Darkfall ( a game that for reasons defying logic had a huge following ) has proved to be a complete and utter joke.

     

  • KnightblastKnightblast Member Posts: 1,798
    Originally posted by Hydroblunt 
    Why do WoW fanbois hate the other games so much?  WAR is a better game from a PvP perspective and hence has a strong base due to that.  WoW PvP is a joke that got funnier every year.  WoW PvE is played out and dumbed down, so the appeal is gone to a true MMORPG players.  You WoW fanbois hate anything not WoW, so your opinion means squat.  How do I know?  When I started playing WAR, I kept saying to myself 'WTF are they talking about, this is a very good game"
    Maybe 10-20% of the players I used to play WoW with are still around.  So keep on deluding yourself about that WoW is doing better and better.  I did not play with terribads who are the overwhelming majority of WoW right now.
    WoW is finished, its only growth is in China, which is nothing more than a marketing ploy.  The development staff is being moved to their new MMO.  That's a big hint.

     

    Actually I'm not a WoW fanboi at all.  But I did play Warhammer in the beta and for a few months after release, and I thought the game was terrible.  I knew many people who played in that time frame and left to go back to WoW when WoW's patch 3.0 came along in October.  Sure, WAR has its hardcore fans -- every MMO does.  But it's not anything to be compared with WoW.

    Why is it that WoW haters never tire of posting thread after thread after thread about how WoW is in decline, when in fact the game seems quite stable in population, and perhaps even moderately growing?  You all have been at this since 2005, and it hasn't happened yet.  it's fine not to like WoW -- everyone has different tastes.  But these endless threads are tiresome and as questionable in basis as they were in 2005.

  • popinjaypopinjay Member Posts: 6,539


    Originally posted by Cryptor
    Everyone knows that WoW numbers are bloated by Asian numbers , and those subscribers numbers are ify atbest depending how you define a subscriber.
     
    I ( along with many others ) left WoW for WAR and I just love this game, it is soo much better imho, it;s hard to explain.  This patch 1.2 for WAR just made my mind up for sure that this is the game that I will stay with for a looong time to come ( I was with WoW for 3 yeras ).
    I highly recommend that anyone tired with wow tries WAR or LotRO ( but LotRO only if you are a PvE player ).  These are the two best mmorpgs out there imho, especially now that Darkfall ( a game that for reasons defying logic had a huge following ) has proved to be a complete and utter joke.
     

    He would probably recommend you do not roll an Order player on Iron Rock, or an Destro player on Volkmar, as those sides get their asses handed in every single night. Destro on Iron Rock has captured Order city 7 out of 8 times this past week due to sheer numbers. Anyone rolling Order here is just asking for a boring time and a buttwhompin.

    Seeing as how there are only 15 servers left of any note, you can scratch a few because even though they have good populations, they are severely unbalanced. There are a few servers like this as this is one of the problems not mentioned about Warhammer.. unbalancing. There is no way for Mythic to fix this at the moment, unless they did forced mergers, which they won't because it's an industry embarrassment. They instituted a new oRvR plan called Zone Domination, which by all accounts, is not going to go well at all. I would suggest anyone thinking about this read up on how well this went on the test server.


    While WoW is a known commodity, WAR has a lot of dirty little secrets that most fans will say "oh, yeah its not perfect, but they are working on it." The problem is.. that part they are talking about is the endgame. And for a PvP game, that's all there is.. endgame. And that one needs a redesign, because if its not crashing, its unbalanced. In WoW, it doesnt matter because if Horde/Alliance is outnumbered, the weaker side gets buffs, making it at least a challenge.


    There is no such mechanic in WAR, hence you have Destro walking into a city anytime they feel like it on Iron Rock. The more this happens, the more Order gets discouraged and rerolls Destro. Soon there will be no Order because they are tired of losing; check around and see on different sites this is the case. This is bound to happen due to how Mythic structured the game, which they are scrambling to fix now.


    Buyer beware.

  • jeshyyjeshyy Member Posts: 4

    darkfall will be disappointed? Really? But the website seems to promote it strongly, and i'm about to try

  • MwajiMwaji Member Posts: 229

    And looks like this one wins it.

  • RyonoxRyonox Member UncommonPosts: 64

    holy necro batman.

  • MwajiMwaji Member Posts: 229

    LOL hey what good is a 2009 prediction if we cant use the actual results?

  • SurfriderSurfrider Member UncommonPosts: 302

    Please don't raise dead topics.

This discussion has been closed.