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Now that the milk is spilled, heres what I woulda done

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  • RokurgeptaRokurgepta Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 2,136
    Originally posted by Torak

    Originally posted by Rokurgepta

    Originally posted by Torak

    Originally posted by Rokurgepta

    Originally posted by Sevenwind


    I think the people who play TR are looking forward to the pvp map. It got a lot of comments the other night when the dev popped in general chat for a few minutes.
    I look at the pvp that is going into the game as a type of wargames. If the militaries around the world compete in wargames as training exercises why can't that be done in TR?
    I don't care much for pvp but the clans I run into in the game a lot are PVP clans.



     

    It is done in TR, the PVP now is basicly wargames. It serves no purpose stprywise right now other than as a wargame.  Makes sense except what military runs its wargames in the middle of the actual warzones? If PVP was all instanced and not done in the middle of warzones it would make a little more sense game lore wise.

    TR could have had good PVP had the game been designed for it from the start, but everyone knows it was an after thought.  Having mankind supposedly fight for its own survival and have PVP that is not RvR makes the games story seem a little less credible. Had the Bane been playable from the start or maybe even the Foreans and other races and groups you come across, the AFS that all went into hiding and the Cormans had been playable as factions you could have brought in a real social aspect to PVP. Groups could choose to work together to drive out the bane or allow inner turmoil to cause fights that the bane might exploit. There could have been real solid game depth added with PVP if used properly. TR missed that boat so far.

     

    Here is where I disagree. IMHO a PvM (PvP) type set up would re-spark the game. Here is why...you can't "win" Earth, if you do the game is over. So it becomes a perpetual battlefield. I agree with sevenwind, I did see a lot of PvP chatter when I was playing. A perpetual PvE battlefield will wear thin in a very short time. PS didn't do well because it challenged FPS games and it's no contest, FPS stomped PS guts, they look, play better and they are free.

    Add in the social station

    Add in a bootcamp

    Revamp weak areas over time (crafting) which I tried and it wasn't that bad....add in more content starting at level cap but re-work your way down. Add in personal vehicles, runnings for chumps

    Add in a Fleet branch with ships. This would be the only "difficult" portion to do.

    The game still has a lot of players in the early levels, trial accounts are marked and I saw a lot. There is still a good amount of interest in the game.

     

     

    How does PVP in this game not get stomped on by FPS yet PS did? I see TR as not all that different. Playing the Bane if they got a huge revamp would be cool for a little bit, but in the end like PS interest would dwindle. If someone could make an discussion of why TR PVP would succedd where a game like PS was decently successful I would love to read it. But all I hear is how TR PVP would be great. Well tell me and the doubters why.

     

    How does PVP respark a game that was neverng P known for PVP and now fit the lore of the game? How does PVP save this disaster? I think my stated idea of playing the different factions and allowing them to through social skills and working together or apart decide the fate of mankind is a good one for bringing PVP to a prominant position in TR.

    I am guessing you quoted my post without reading it as the entire last paragraph was ideas on how to do this.

     

    No I raqd it but you are talking about a different approach. PvP from the ground up. I'm not. I'm talking PvM type play.

    You could still add in all th PvE content you like, NP.

    PS was designed as a persistant FPS game, thats why it failed. It also could not compete with new FPS over time. Look at PS and look at CoD4 or BF2142. No contest. PS is like a fossil compared.

     

    That is why I do not see TR making it big going with big time PVP. If a game designed for it "failed" and PVP servers usually the smallest on MMOs why would TR become a hit using it?

     

    Ps really did not fail. It was not a huge hit but it made money and lasted a few years. They just consolidated servers again, but it was 10X the game TR is now.It was in much better shape starting year two than TR is. TR could have done a good job having both PVE and PVP adding it now is going to be tough. If they make bane playable the game needs huge changes.

  • dalevi1dalevi1 Member Posts: 829
    Originally posted by Torak


    If you really wanted to put Tabula Rasa back on the map relatively easily heres what you do.
     
    Earth - full PvP area with playable Bane like LotRs PvM
    It would be fast, all the resources are already there. That would buy the time needed to revamp the things that need attention.
    Later
    Add Space with a complete ship system similar to SWG (but fun and interesting to play) and a Fleet character system.
     

    Space in SWG is still fun, and interesting to play. Just the rest of the game sucks.

    If you want monster play, then as you said, go to Lord of the ....

    They don't even have an in game mail system at this point. Long term for me, this is going to be a killer since they only way to communicate with clan members is to open a third party website, or get lucky on ventrillo, which sucks.

    You want an upgrade to TR - start with basic communication FFS...

    Played (more than a month): SWG, Second Life, Tabula Rasa, Lineage 2, Everquest 2, EvE, MxO, Ryzom.

    Tried: WoW, Shadowbane, Anarchy Online, Everquest, WWII Online, Planetside

    Beta: Lotro, Tabula Rasa, WAR.

  • BizkitNLBizkitNL Member RarePosts: 2,546

    TR needs to come up with some game-changing mechanics. Basically make something completely different from what's out there already.

    In my opinion, the setting is awesome, but the gameplay itself is just a big copy of  "insert random MMO here".

    I had fun though, uptill a certain point.

    10
  • TorakTorak Member Posts: 4,905
    Originally posted by dalevi1
    They don't even have an in game mail system at this point. Long term for me, this is going to be a killer since they only way to communicate with clan members is to open a third party website, or get lucky on ventrillo, which sucks.
    You want an upgrade to TR - start with basic communication FFS...



     

    True.

     

  • TorakTorak Member Posts: 4,905
    Originally posted by Rokurgepta

    Originally posted by Torak


     
    No I raqd it but you are talking about a different approach. PvP from the ground up. I'm not. I'm talking PvM type play.
    You could still add in all th PvE content you like, NP.
    PS was designed as a persistant FPS game, thats why it failed. It also could not compete with new FPS over time. Look at PS and look at CoD4 or BF2142. No contest. PS is like a fossil compared.
     

    That is why I do not see TR making it big going with big time PVP. If a game designed for it "failed" and PVP servers usually the smallest on MMOs why would TR become a hit using it?

     

    Ps really did not fail. It was not a huge hit but it made money and lasted a few years. They just consolidated servers again, but it was 10X the game TR is now.It was in much better shape starting year two than TR is. TR could have done a good job having both PVE and PVP adding it now is going to be tough. If they make bane playable the game needs huge changes.



     

    I'm not talking about "big time" either bro. I'm talking about salvaging the game. PvP is NOT a core feature BUT it is a wanted feature. You seem to think I am advocating some sort of swing from PvE focus to PvP focus and I am not and have not said that. It does need a meaningful PvP portion however not a half ass one like what they are trying with this nonsense wargame thing. They have an enemy, they should use it.

    The PvE missions are this games strength along with its control point battles. They need to build on these aspects and ADD new things to make the game more like a "living" universe. A true Social center, mail system (as the above poster pointed out) a meaningful guild (call it Unit) system, a rank system, vehicles, space and a better crafting / technical system.

    I'm not going to compare PS because its apples and oranges. Totally different games, totally different playstyles, totally different core design. The game is dead anyway and is far to aged to really care. If any gamer with half a wit wants good sci-fi FPS action the LAST thing they will be looking at is PS and its 14.99 monthly fee for an empty, massively dated game.

     

  • Death1942Death1942 Member UncommonPosts: 2,587

    i would have ramped up the chaos and AI to make it far more like a battlefield.  also have options for full fps or the weird half system.

     

    also stick in more content

     

    MMO wish list:

    -Changeable worlds
    -Solid non level based game
    -Sharks with lasers attached to their heads

  • RokurgeptaRokurgepta Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 2,136
    Originally posted by Torak

    Originally posted by Rokurgepta

    Originally posted by Torak


     
    No I raqd it but you are talking about a different approach. PvP from the ground up. I'm not. I'm talking PvM type play.
    You could still add in all th PvE content you like, NP.
    PS was designed as a persistant FPS game, thats why it failed. It also could not compete with new FPS over time. Look at PS and look at CoD4 or BF2142. No contest. PS is like a fossil compared.
     

    That is why I do not see TR making it big going with big time PVP. If a game designed for it "failed" and PVP servers usually the smallest on MMOs why would TR become a hit using it?

     

    Ps really did not fail. It was not a huge hit but it made money and lasted a few years. They just consolidated servers again, but it was 10X the game TR is now.It was in much better shape starting year two than TR is. TR could have done a good job having both PVE and PVP adding it now is going to be tough. If they make bane playable the game needs huge changes.



     

    I'm not talking about "big time" either bro. I'm talking about salvaging the game. PvP is NOT a core feature BUT it is a wanted feature. You seem to think I am advocating some sort of swing from PvE focus to PvP focus and I am not and have not said that. It does need a meaningful PvP portion however not a half ass one like what they are trying with this nonsense wargame thing. They have an enemy, they should use it.

    The PvE missions are this games strength along with its control point battles. They need to build on these aspects and ADD new things to make the game more like a "living" universe. A true Social center, mail system (as the above poster pointed out) a meaningful guild (call it Unit) system, a rank system, vehicles, space and a better crafting / technical system.

    I'm not going to compare PS because its apples and oranges. Totally different games, totally different playstyles, totally different core design. The game is dead anyway and is far to aged to really care. If any gamer with half a wit wants good sci-fi FPS action the LAST thing they will be looking at is PS and its 14.99 monthly fee for an empty, massively dated game.

     



     

    With all that said thought the PvP part of PS was fun. Nothing in TR today was as much fun or as tactical as PS was. Maybe it is because the only enemy was other people, maybe it was just set up better. Ps has seen its day and was never big enough to warrant the sequel that was planned. Thats ok at least they tried something no other MMO really had.

    TR has an enemy, have you played a spy with polymorph? I honestly think it would take more work to make the bane playable than it would to make factions work together towards victory or loss by letting players join the Retreads or the Foreans or the AFS or any group not named Bane.

    I agree with CPs being a strength, I think the basic missions were weak and were only there to lead you along the story line and get you places. Too many times you did Fedex style quests in a game screaming for special OPs type stuff.

    In order for TR PVP to be meaningfull it has to become the focus, at least for a few months to come up with a story that makes sense and then the content to go with it. Maybe Earth is that chance, maybe the people left behind resent the AFS and fight them and the bane at the same time. Maybe this is TRs chance to add meaningfull PvP. But really they need help and need it now. When the head of NCSoft in Korea says a meeting is planned to talk about TRs money loser status you can bet your rent check that meeting is not a happy sounding one.

    Be nice if they added something to CPs these control points should have meaning when they are taken by either side, Think PS and what certain bases meant if your side held them. Right now the main reason to fight CPs is they are fun for a while. But like anything else doing it over and over tends to become boring when there is no real reason.

    Bigger world where vehicles play a part would be nice, maybe some small 1 and 2 man tanks that can help MECHS when they are fully in. Yes I am disappointed they ruined PAUs, but if they can really make MECHs awesome it might help bandage that wound.  Vehicles that have some attack function add a whole new level to combat tactics. The more options the more fun and deeper any fight can become.

    The key to PvP though is making it important to the game while making it so people who are borderline on PVP in general willingly take part. I know that is hard to do almost impossible but in a game like TR with limited resources they need to get it right to hold on to their current population and possibly bring in new and people who left and still pay attention.

  • RokurgeptaRokurgepta Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 2,136
    Originally posted by Death1942


    i would have ramped up the chaos and AI to make it far more like a battlefield.  also have options for full fps or the weird half system.
     
    also stick in more content
     

    Yeah I agree something that made battlefields feel more like a war was going on would have been preferred. Troops dug in, usable turrets, leadership of AFS rallying troops in the field and the bane massing for real assaults all would have gone far in keeping many of the players who left.

  • TorakTorak Member Posts: 4,905
    Originally posted by Rokurgepta




     
    With all that said thought the PvP part of PS was fun. Nothing in TR today was as much fun or as tactical as PS was. Maybe it is because the only enemy was other people, maybe it was just set up better. Ps has seen its day and was never big enough to warrant the sequel that was planned. Thats ok at least they tried something no other MMO really had.
    TR has an enemy, have you played a spy with polymorph? I honestly think it would take more work to make the bane playable than it would to make factions work together towards victory or loss by letting players join the Retreads or the Foreans or the AFS or any group not named Bane.
    I agree with CPs being a strength, I think the basic missions were weak and were only there to lead you along the story line and get you places. Too many times you did Fedex style quests in a game screaming for special OPs type stuff.
    In order for TR PVP to be meaningfull it has to become the focus, at least for a few months to come up with a story that makes sense and then the content to go with it. Maybe Earth is that chance, maybe the people left behind resent the AFS and fight them and the bane at the same time. Maybe this is TRs chance to add meaningfull PvP. But really they need help and need it now. When the head of NCSoft in Korea says a meeting is planned to talk about TRs money loser status you can bet your rent check that meeting is not a happy sounding one.
    Be nice if they added something to CPs these control points should have meaning when they are taken by either side, Think PS and what certain bases meant if your side held them. Right now the main reason to fight CPs is they are fun for a while. But like anything else doing it over and over tends to become boring when there is no real reason.
    Bigger world where vehicles play a part would be nice, maybe some small 1 and 2 man tanks that can help MECHS when they are fully in. Yes I am disappointed they ruined PAUs, but if they can really make MECHs awesome it might help bandage that wound.  Vehicles that have some attack function add a whole new level to combat tactics. The more options the more fun and deeper any fight can become.
    The key to PvP though is making it important to the game while making it so people who are borderline on PVP in general willingly take part. I know that is hard to do almost impossible but in a game like TR with limited resources they need to get it right to hold on to their current population and possibly bring in new and people who left and still pay attention.

    Well I dunno the financal situation of the game as it is not listed in the Q3 report but I'm sure if the CEO says he want to "rescue it" thats a good sign. They never said that about AA.

     

    I'm guessing that the game is skirting the edge of bringing in a profit and they want to see what it would take to energize it. Maybe they will come to some of the same conclusions we are.

    What is going to work against TR is the fact that they only run it in NA/EU. Korea opted out remember? They didn't like big Riches art direction and said it would not appeal to Asian gamers. He said he would go without the Korean market. 

    One thing to keep in mind is NC is more or less abandoning the western market and refocusing on their main bread winner, the Korean and Asian markets.

    I guess we will see where they go with this.

  • SevenwindSevenwind Member UncommonPosts: 2,188

    I think the D15 drop will be the make it or break it for the game. It looks really good from what they say. A high level CP instance and a instance that is going to encourage grouping to to beat certain bosses.

    So next month I think subs will go up atleast a  month or two from people going back to check out earth. Much like people do with DDO when a new Mod hits.

    We'll see what the reviews say then or when it is released on the PTS.

     

    .. .... .- - . - .-. --- .-.. .-.. ... .-- .... --- .-. . .--. --- .-. - .-.-.-

    --------------------------------------------------------
    Promote what you love instead of bashing what you hate.

  • RokurgeptaRokurgepta Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 2,136
    Originally posted by Torak

    Originally posted by Rokurgepta




     
    With all that said thought the PvP part of PS was fun. Nothing in TR today was as much fun or as tactical as PS was. Maybe it is because the only enemy was other people, maybe it was just set up better. Ps has seen its day and was never big enough to warrant the sequel that was planned. Thats ok at least they tried something no other MMO really had.
    TR has an enemy, have you played a spy with polymorph? I honestly think it would take more work to make the bane playable than it would to make factions work together towards victory or loss by letting players join the Retreads or the Foreans or the AFS or any group not named Bane.
    I agree with CPs being a strength, I think the basic missions were weak and were only there to lead you along the story line and get you places. Too many times you did Fedex style quests in a game screaming for special OPs type stuff.
    In order for TR PVP to be meaningfull it has to become the focus, at least for a few months to come up with a story that makes sense and then the content to go with it. Maybe Earth is that chance, maybe the people left behind resent the AFS and fight them and the bane at the same time. Maybe this is TRs chance to add meaningfull PvP. But really they need help and need it now. When the head of NCSoft in Korea says a meeting is planned to talk about TRs money loser status you can bet your rent check that meeting is not a happy sounding one.
    Be nice if they added something to CPs these control points should have meaning when they are taken by either side, Think PS and what certain bases meant if your side held them. Right now the main reason to fight CPs is they are fun for a while. But like anything else doing it over and over tends to become boring when there is no real reason.
    Bigger world where vehicles play a part would be nice, maybe some small 1 and 2 man tanks that can help MECHS when they are fully in. Yes I am disappointed they ruined PAUs, but if they can really make MECHs awesome it might help bandage that wound.  Vehicles that have some attack function add a whole new level to combat tactics. The more options the more fun and deeper any fight can become.
    The key to PvP though is making it important to the game while making it so people who are borderline on PVP in general willingly take part. I know that is hard to do almost impossible but in a game like TR with limited resources they need to get it right to hold on to their current population and possibly bring in new and people who left and still pay attention.

    Well I dunno the financal situation of the game as it is not listed in the Q3 report but I'm sure if the CEO says he want to "rescue it" thats a good sign. They never said that about AA.

     

    I'm guessing that the game is skirting the edge of bringing in a profit and they want to see what it would take to energize it. Maybe they will come to some of the same conclusions we are.

    What is going to work against TR is the fact that they only run it in NA/EU. Korea opted out remember? They didn't like big Riches art direction and said it would not appeal to Asian gamers. He said he would go without the Korean market. 

    One thing to keep in mind is NC is more or less abandoning the western market and refocusing on their main bread winner, the Korean and Asian markets.

    I guess we will see where they go with this.



     

    Didnt someone post a link to the Q3 report. I think they said it brought in 1.7 million for the quarter while costs were like 3 million for the same time frame.

    TR costs close to 60 million to produce and they are on pace to bring in 6 million a year from sub fees. Even if they had no monthly costs it would be 10 years before break even. I would think they need to triple subs to get to the point where turning a profit is a reality.

    Maybe NCSoft tried to sell of TR cheaply to someone who will run it buyt develop it slower? Who knows really. Until NCSoft says something it is all guessing.

  • TorakTorak Member Posts: 4,905
    Originally posted by Rokurgepta




     
    Didnt someone post a link to the Q3 report. I think they said it brought in 1.7 million for the quarter while costs were like 3 million for the same time frame.
    TR costs close to 60 million to produce and they are on pace to bring in 6 million a year from sub fees. Even if they had no monthly costs it would be 10 years before break even. I would think they need to triple subs to get to the point where turning a profit is a reality.
    Maybe NCSoft tried to sell of TR cheaply to someone who will run it buyt develop it slower? Who knows really. Until NCSoft says something it is all guessing.

     

    Here is the Q3 report, no TR listed. (unless I'm blind which has been known to happen)

    ncsoft.net/global/ir/quarterly.aspx

    No idea how much this game cost. I find 60 million difficult to believe but stranger things have happened.

  • RokurgeptaRokurgepta Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 2,136
    Originally posted by Torak

    Originally posted by Rokurgepta




     
    Didnt someone post a link to the Q3 report. I think they said it brought in 1.7 million for the quarter while costs were like 3 million for the same time frame.
    TR costs close to 60 million to produce and they are on pace to bring in 6 million a year from sub fees. Even if they had no monthly costs it would be 10 years before break even. I would think they need to triple subs to get to the point where turning a profit is a reality.
    Maybe NCSoft tried to sell of TR cheaply to someone who will run it buyt develop it slower? Who knows really. Until NCSoft says something it is all guessing.

     

    Here is the Q3 report, no TR listed. (unless I'm blind which has been known to happen)

    ncsoft.net/global/ir/quarterly.aspx

    No idea how much this game cost. I find 60 million difficult to believe but stranger things have happened.

    When TR was released the rumor was 100 million that was shot down by NCSoft by saying this game did not cost 100 million to make it did not even cost 80 million. That leaves a lot open to your imagination but to me that means it was likely close to 80 million with 60 million possibly being a little low. Remember TR was being developed as a fantasy game before switching to Sci-Fi, so TR had to absorb a larger than normal cost for an MMO and had a few years of dev time.

     

    In the post you quoted I meant to say maybe NCSoft tries to sell it off not tried. The way i worded it made it sound like it had already happened. Sorry for the typo there.

  • kingleekinglee Member Posts: 103

     http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2008/11/133_34283.html

     

    This tells you where most of that $100 Million went...into the pockets of the Garriott brothers when they first started doing business with NcSoft.    There's no telling what was actually spent in development.  Buying the Garriott "brand" was  a lot more expensive than hiring programmers and managers.

     

     Of course, NcSoft also expected talent and hard work.

  • alakramalakram Member UncommonPosts: 2,301
    Originally posted by Torak


    Hey anyway, I did a trial and found TR to be pretty much the same game it was a year ago. Sure maybe it has some under the hood tweaks and improvements but overall its the same game.
    Wah for me, right?
    Well heres what I would have done if it was me in charge.
    First I would have started off in a "basic training" area. What "war" theme adventure starts otherwise? We could have got R. Lee Erney to voice it over. He's done video games before so no issue there. A grueling tutorial with lots of yelling. Here would also set up the story line (you would be able to skip once you did it completed for alts)
    Once you got done there. You would be transported to the central base of Human operations. A spacestation. (named liberty or something freedom related like that) This is your "core" social location. Here you could have your "housing" or barracks, shops (PX), social center, arms rooms whatever you could come with. Training cert areas. This is where you would also "deploy" from.
    We would need a few different worlds first off since this is a level based game. Without a a total revamp of mechanics, you can't get around that. So lets say a tier for each 10 level range. World one for levels 1-10 then 11-20 ext...)
    You climb into a dropship and head for the local "beachhead" on that world. Now if you head to the main base on the planet, no issues you basically just teleport there. HOWEVER if you had a pilot, you could drop where you want...here is the catch, you would need to run through bane ships to get to the surface maybe even being shot down in the process. (maybe eject and get dropped on the world in a random spot) Other players could provide fighter support as escorts (see how easy this is to tie everyone together?)
    Once on the surface at the main base you have whatever vehicle / gear that is availible for that world / battle area at the base. That all would be based on RANK or (level) Maybe at the station you could train to become "certified" to use equipment that become available at the tier level. You could still do money (credits) for extras about or beyond basic items but currency could also be used in other ways on the station. Whoever thought it was a good idea for soldiers to be buying their ammo needs a smack in the head. If you run out of money in the current TR what is one to do? It seems unlikely that will happen so its a useless mechanic. Carrying capacity should be concern. I have no idea how my toon is lugging around 5000+ rounds of ammo.
    So the world could still be split into the maps and you could still have your instanced mission (which are good for the overall storytelling) However you could just get rid of all this "kill 10 rats" they put in. Instead you literally need to just fight for control points on the world. New maps could always be added.
    Also depending on the world, different vehicles could be available. Everything from heavy armor to watercraft on world with a lot of water, Power armor suits whatever would make sense for that world.
    Dunno, there is so much they could have done with this along those lines. The military adventure theme is a good idea but the key is that you need to actually make it a military adventure, not EQ with guns.
    Just some thoughts early Sunday morning....more coffee please.
     
     

    Im totally serious here: Awesome Desing, at least in my opinion, really. This is what TR should be.



  • TorakTorak Member Posts: 4,905
    Originally posted by kinglee


     http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2008/11/133_34283.html
     
    This tells you where most of that $100 Million went...into the pockets of the Garriott brothers when they first started doing business with NcSoft.    There's no telling what was actually spent in development.  Buying the Garriott "brand" was  a lot more expensive than hiring programmers and managers.
     
     Of course, NcSoft also expected talent and hard work.

     

    Hmmm, it says 74 million went into it....still an unbelievable amount.

     

    They shoulda hired me. It would cost them half the price, they woulda got a better game and I would be rich

     

    "Garriott was the creative mind behind ``Tabula Rasa,'' a role-playing action game featuring shooting aliens, which took the company seven years and an estimated 100 billion won (about $74 million) to put on the market. "

     

  • RokurgeptaRokurgepta Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 2,136
    Originally posted by Torak

    Originally posted by kinglee


     http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2008/11/133_34283.html
     
    This tells you where most of that $100 Million went...into the pockets of the Garriott brothers when they first started doing business with NcSoft.    There's no telling what was actually spent in development.  Buying the Garriott "brand" was  a lot more expensive than hiring programmers and managers.
     
     Of course, NcSoft also expected talent and hard work.

     

    Hmmm, it says 74 million went into it....still an unbelievable amount.

     

    They shoulda hired me. It would cost them half the price, they woulda got a better game and I would be rich

     

    "Garriott was the creative mind behind ``Tabula Rasa,'' a role-playing action game featuring shooting aliens, which took the company seven years and an estimated 100 billion won (about $74 million) to put on the market. "

     



     

    Ok then 74 million it is. At the current rate of $500,000 a month or $6 million a year in revenue we are going to say year 12 for the break even point on original investment.  Now all we need to do is figure the costs during that 12 year period and we can estimate when this game will actually turn a profit. I will say 2029 as the year the first dollar of actual profit is made off TR. Figure year 2020 to pay off the original investment and then the next 9 years will be spent recouping the costs of 2008 to 2029. I am sure I am being a little generous here but since we are talking 20 years of an MMO before profit somehow I think it is all a fantasy anyway.  

  • kingleekinglee Member Posts: 103

     The 70-80B won was the upfront investment in 2001 before the following 7 years of development--that was money the Garriots got to keep for themselves.  Now add the costs of developing the two versions of TR, and this past year of maintenance.

     

    I'm only speculating, but AA cost $14M, so I figure the first TR cost that much.  But I'll bet the second version cost at least $20-30, because they were hiring and spending like mad those 2-3 years to get the game "done" in time for Richard's expected announcement of his space trip.  Add on to that this past year of maintenance of the game, which Lee (the CFO) said would cost between $10-15M per year to keep running.  The game has brought in about  $6M so far in 2007-8.  The development costs plus maintenance minus sales comes out to about $50-55 million.

     

    $124 million dollars gone.

  • kingleekinglee Member Posts: 103

     Although the upfront investment is staggering, if the game actually clearing monthly expenses the company would just "write off" that $80 million, no matter how painful.

     

    But the game is making $600K a month, and it's costling a million a month to run it.  That's the heartbreaker.  If the game could just make a couple mil a month, they could declare it a disappointing success.  

     

    But it is not.  Just month over month, it will lose $4.8 million Dec 07--08.   Probably will do just as bad in 2009.   Unless they've got some hot new idea, I think they'd be doing their stockholders a disservice not to close it down.

     

  • TorakTorak Member Posts: 4,905
    Originally posted by kinglee


     Although the upfront investment is staggering, if the game actually clearing monthly expenses the company would just "write off" that $80 million, no matter how painful.
     
    But the game is making $600K a month, and it's costling a million a month to run it.  That's the heartbreaker.  If the game could just make a couple mil a month, they could declare it a disappointing success.  
     
    But it is not.  Just month over month, it will lose $4.8 million Dec 07--08.   Probably will do just as bad in 2009.   Unless they've got some hot new idea, I think they'd be doing their stockholders a disservice not to close it down.
     

    They haven't published any subscriber numbers and how are you figuring their monthly expense? Their Q reports have all that info for other games but TR is left out.

    Speculation at best is all that is.

    Am I missing something from their operating report?

     

  • kingleekinglee Member Posts: 103

     I'm basing the $600thouand/mo on the quarterly average of $1.8 million.  I just divide by three to get $600K per month.   There are no subscription numbers, probably because they'd be so embarrassing.  The statement by the CFO is from a previous "conference call" in Feb 2008 quarterly report.  You can download the audio file and listen to it.  There's enough on the NcSoft site to keep you busy for weeks...they are very transparent.

      (By the way, they also have the now-bankrupt Lehman brothers   represented on that conference call...blast from the past!  The Lehman bros in 2007 had issued very optimistic reports to their own stockholders about the prospects of a RGTR hit, they invested heavily in it......so the pain just keeps on hurting.)

     

    Lee said between $10-15 would be necessary for TR to break even for the year.  I used 12 for ease because there are 12 months in a year.   A million in expenses to run the game, $600thousand in income, means $400K loss per month, times 12 is $4.8 loss per year.  

     

    And that does not take the original capital investment in the Garriotts into account.

     

    It seems to me that the only embarrassment NcSoft should feel is in investing in the Garriotts in the first place.  After all, they were promised and  expected American knowhow, talent, vision, good management and hard work.  The embarrassment should be felt by the Garriotts for underperforming and indulging in so many frivolous distractions.

  • TorakTorak Member Posts: 4,905
    Originally posted by kinglee


     I'm basing the $600thouand/mo on the quarterly average of $1.8 million.  I just divide by three to get $600K per month.   There are no subscription numbers, probably because they'd be so embarrassing.  The statement by the CFO is from a previous "conference call" in Feb 2008 quarterly report.  You can download the audio file and listen to it.  There's enough on the NcSoft site to keep you busy for weeks...they are very transparent.
      (By the way, they also have the now-bankrupt Lehman brothers   represented on that conference call...blast from the past!  The Lehman bros in 2007 had issued very optimistic reports to their own stockholders about the prospects of a RGTR hit, they invested heavily in it......so the pain just keeps on hurting.)
     
    Lee said between $10-15 would be necessary for TR to break even for the year.  I used 12 for ease because there are 12 months in a year.   A million in expenses to run the game, $600thousand in income, means $400K loss per month, times 12 is $4.8 loss per year.  
     
    And that does not take the original capital investment in the Garriotts into account.
     
    It seems to me that the only embarrassment NcSoft should feel is in investing in the Garriotts in the first place.  After all, they were promised and  expected American knowhow, talent, vision, good management and hard work.  The embarrassment should be felt by the Garriotts for underperforming and indulging in so many frivolous distractions.

    There is no doubt that the game is an embarrassment to NC. IMHO, there was a behind the scenes deal with RG to leave. He's known for awhile about it and it had something to do with the space trip and him doing a marketing stunt for NC even though he paid the bill.

    However looks like NCSoft may hit Gold with Aion. Its breaking records across the board in Korea. The US and EU markets make up less then 19% of NC's total revenues....TR is a small fry.

    With NC pulling back / downsizing / consolidating its North American operations it more then likely all we will end up is a server localization market for their games targeted at the market with the real action...Asia. They tried their hand at marketing specifically to westerners and got burned bad.

    74 million...geez...

     

  • kingleekinglee Member Posts: 103

     There is no doubt that the game is an embarrassment to NC. IMHO, there was a behind the scenes deal with RG to leave.

     

    A pity there wasn't a deal for him to work hard, focus his attention and reputed "creativity" and given Ncsoft good value for their investment.  That is the one thing that hasn't been mentioned.  That's the milk that's realy been spilt!

     

    And the Garriotts have made Americans look like looters and mooches.  I hope Aion is a hit for them.

     

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