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Will it last, and if so........

angerbeaverangerbeaver Member UncommonPosts: 1,216

Okay well I know there is probably a topic out there somewhere that touches on this but I couldn't find it in the first 3 pages.

Do you believe this game will last more than another 2 years? I know Guild Wars has come out with Expansions, do you think that maybe in LOTR future as well?

Thanks,

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Comments

  • lilkanyonlilkanyon Member Posts: 65

    I think that is a difficult question to answer for anyone...it's kinda like being a fortune teller..best I can tell you and I know your concern (spend the 50 bucks for the box and 15 a month and lots of time levelling your char and one day you try to log on and game is gone)..but I dont' see that happening in this game...if you are looking for longevity, I think you will find it..hell..if SWG survived then Lotro will..at least long enough for you to realize you are on crack and it was time for you to quit anyway :D

  • seabass2003seabass2003 Member Posts: 4,144

    This game will be around until at least 2012. They have a timetable of releases set up to carry it that far. After 2012 its anybody's guess if it will still be around.

    In America I have bad teeth. If I lived in England my teeth would be perfect.

  • TerranahTerranah Member UncommonPosts: 3,575

     Dude, people still play pacman and frogger. 

     

    That being said, the game is just getting started and I think it has a good run ahead of it.  The graphics are probably in that sweet spot, where they are not the best in the world but they are good enough that it is a nonissue.   Perfomance is good.  They are adding new content regularly and there is plenty of room for expansions.

     

    What they need to work on is the end game, which seems to be a problem with most mmo's.  That is probably where the expansions will come in.    With it's fan base, I expect it will be around for a pretty long time.

  • angerbeaverangerbeaver Member UncommonPosts: 1,216

    lol well PacMan doesn't have quite the expenses to maintain as LOTR does. I've just heard that there are not as many subscribers as expected and wasn't sure if the game was being profitable to stay on for awhile. I'll keep at it though, even if it only lasts til 2010 it is a good run for me.

    Thanks,

  • ByromByrom Member Posts: 236

    I reckon it'll be here till we are all blown into the stoneage, lol, which I recon is long enough, hehe.

  • saveit11saveit11 Member Posts: 31

    I think Tolkien's books and even LOTRO has enough faithful followers that it will still carry on. We don't know exact numbers, but I think the market is open enough for this to last it's full lifetime. Everquest has been around since 1999 and is still running strongly enough to have another expansion recently released, so I think LOTRO has a fairly good chance of running along with it.

  • mareltmarelt Member Posts: 7

    Ok everyone, there are 4million characters on lotro, I asked 100 people averaged it out and it looks like everyone has 4.4 alts ( some had 16) that being so we can assume that there are around 900000 subscribers, this game is only being sold in NA, Japan and Europe. so we can also assume that they are getting around a 15$ profit off everyone, even more off Canadians myself included even though our bloody dollar is worth more.

     

    With that all ready there.

     

    WoW has boasted 8million subscribers but how many do you believe are actually from NA and Europe? probably around 2x the amount lotro has 1.8million. the rest are subscribers in Asia where the subscriptions are priced very very low. So in general IMHO LOTRO is making a good amount of money considering its only been out for 8 months.

  • saveit11saveit11 Member Posts: 31

    Originally posted by marelt


    Ok everyone, there are 4million characters on lotro, I asked 100 people averaged it out and it looks like everyone has 4.4 alts ( some had 16) that being so we can assume that there are around 900000 subscribers, this game is only being sold in NA, Japan and Europe. so we can also assume that they are getting around a 15$ profit off everyone, even more off Canadians myself included even though our bloody dollar is worth more.
     
    With that all ready there.
     
    WoW has boasted 8million subscribers but how many do you believe are actually from NA and Europe? probably around 2x the amount lotro has 1.8million. the rest are subscribers in Asia where the subscriptions are priced very very low. So in general IMHO LOTRO is making a good amount of money considering its only been out for 8 months.

    Just a correction, the game is out in Australia as well. Turbine is expanding the game into S. Korea as well in the upcoming months (I don't have a source on hand, read it somewhere on the forums) so the game will continue to bring in new customers there. If they hit China, they could add perhaps a few million up there.

  • TerranahTerranah Member UncommonPosts: 3,575

    I think subscription numbers are kept close to the vest.  When people throw around numbers they are pretty much just guessing.  Atleast, that's my impression. 

     

    LOTRO is a solid game and they are adding more all the time.  Remember WOW did not have 9 million accounts in one day.  It took time, and I think time will be kind to LOTRO.  Perhaps it will never reach the astronomical numbers that WOW has, but then I don't need large subscription numbers to validate my enjoyment of a game.

     

    I think we are definitely good until 2010 though, so welcome to LOTRO and enjoy.

  • saveit11saveit11 Member Posts: 31

    Another thing to look at is that, storywise, this game only goes up until the Fellowship is at Rivendell. Turbine still has to introduce Gondor, Rohan, Eregion, Mirkwood/Rhovanion, as well as having the option to implement the areas outside of the main story. In a sense, there are hundreds of new places we could still go to in Middle-earth that could heavily add onto the life expectancy of this game.

  • PhosPhos Member Posts: 455

    This game will be around for at least 4 more years. The launch was done intelligently and now they can focus on expansions instead of patches and fixes. There's lots of content to add to the game for a long time to come.

    If I'm wrong, you can marry my grandma. She's available and a very nice person. But I think nanna is safe. The game will be around for a long long time (probably longer than her).

    - Phos

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  • Dave08Dave08 Member UncommonPosts: 67

    Originally posted by lilkanyon


    I think that is a difficult question to answer for anyone...it's kinda like being a fortune teller..best I can tell you and I know your concern (spend the 50 bucks for the box and 15 a month and lots of time levelling your char and one day you try to log on and game is gone)..but I dont' see that happening in this game...if you are looking for longevity, I think you will find it..hell..if SWG survived then Lotro will..at least long enough for you to realize you are on crack and it was time for you to quit anyway :D
    Even now you can log in after an update, and all that you've done for your char has been made worthless.  

    They say they are still 'balancing' which translates to re-gearing, re-specking after every book.  The last changes made my hunter completely unfun to play.  Not the major nerf everyone complained about, but all the associated tweaks.  Traps not working, skills not working.  They don't appreciate what you put into a character at all and will change it on a whim.  

    I took a break after the last book and figured I'd go back in a while, but I find I don't miss it at all.  Looking back, it was really quite empty and boring after 50 anyway.

    I do agree it will be around for years though if that's what you're worried about. 

     

  • CerionCerion Member Posts: 1,005

    The game will be around for years. Even SWG is still hanging on after the NGE.

    There's easily four years worth of expansions yet just counting the major areas: Mirkwood, Rohan, Gondor, Mordor. Plus all the nooks and cranies in Middle Earth to fill out.

    And Turbine was smart in its art design. Because it isn't photorealistic,  the game can have longevity without looking dated.

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  • airheadairhead Member UncommonPosts: 718

    Anything less than 18 months would be scandalous (that's the break-even point for lifers), and Turbine has already had enough of scandal (ac2,ddo).

  • DonnieBrascoDonnieBrasco Member Posts: 1,757

    Originally posted by airhead


    Anything less than 18 months would be scandalous (that's the break-even point for lifers), and Turbine has already had enough of scandal (ac2,ddo).
    TBH i never played those 2 games, but it looks like to me that Turbine has learned a lot from earlier failures!

    DB

    Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.

  • WSIMikeWSIMike Member Posts: 5,564

     

    Originally posted by airhead


    Anything less than 18 months would be scandalous (that's the break-even point for lifers), and Turbine has already had enough of scandal (ac2,ddo).



    AC2.. okay I'll give you that. Though the game had a really bad run (for an otherwise great game, imo), I think "scandal" is too strong a word for it, though.

     

    And especially for DDO - what scandal is there with that game? There are people complaining that they don't like it, it's not "real D&D" etc.. but that's hardly scandalous. That's called "you can't please everyone".

     That said, if LoTRO has less than an 18 month run, it would be sad and unfortunate for those who enjoy it (of course, those who don't like it would be dancing in the streets, so to speak)... It wouldn't be a scandal.

     

    "If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road,
    and the cash shop selling asphalt..."
    - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops

    image

  • airheadairhead Member UncommonPosts: 718

     

    Originally posted by WSIMike


     
    Originally posted by airhead


    Anything less than 18 months would be scandalous (that's the break-even point for lifers), and Turbine has already had enough of scandal (ac2,ddo).



    AC2.. okay I'll give you that. Though the game had a really bad run (for an otherwise great game, imo), I think "scandal" is too strong a word for it, though.

     

    And especially for DDO - what scandal is there with that game? There are people complaining that they don't like it, it's not "real D&D" etc.. but that's hardly scandalous. That's called "you can't please everyone".

     That said, if LoTRO has less than an 18 month run, it would be sad and unfortunate for those who enjoy it (of course, those who don't like it would be dancing in the streets, so to speak)... It wouldn't be a scandal.

     

    k. will give you the DDO point. Just so much potential with the IP, it should have done better, but that's not scandalous.

     

    To turn off the servers before 18 months would be scandalous because that's the break-even point for the LIFERS. In other words, lifers are in the red until 18 months of gaming arrives, after which, they will benefit from their initial decision. (figuring interest on cash etc...)  You know about the LIFERS don't you?

  • Eol-Eol- Member UncommonPosts: 274

    LotRO will be around for a long time. There is a nice market segment for it within the mmorpg market, especially among more casual players and Tolkien fans. A bunch of others will fall by the wayside but not LotRO. It will not approach WoW's numbers, but no other mmorpg will approach those numbers either. Turbine has done a good job with the game.

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  • WSIMikeWSIMike Member Posts: 5,564

     

     

    Originally posted by airhead


     
    Originally posted by WSIMike


     
    Originally posted by airhead


    Anything less than 18 months would be scandalous (that's the break-even point for lifers), and Turbine has already had enough of scandal (ac2,ddo).



    AC2.. okay I'll give you that. Though the game had a really bad run (for an otherwise great game, imo), I think "scandal" is too strong a word for it, though.

     

    And especially for DDO - what scandal is there with that game? There are people complaining that they don't like it, it's not "real D&D" etc.. but that's hardly scandalous. That's called "you can't please everyone".

     That said, if LoTRO has less than an 18 month run, it would be sad and unfortunate for those who enjoy it (of course, those who don't like it would be dancing in the streets, so to speak)... It wouldn't be a scandal.

     

    k. will give you the DDO point. Just so much potential with the IP, it should have done better, but that's not scandalous.

     

    To turn off the servers before 18 months would be scandalous because that's the break-even point for the LIFERS. In other words, lifers are in the red until 18 months of gaming arrives, after which, they will benefit from their initial decision. (figuring interest on cash etc...)  You know about the LIFERS don't you?



    Yes I know about the LIFERS. Caps-Lock and emphasis was unnecessary. Especially since we're discussing a game that is barely 7 months old and is, by many accounts (serial bashers and doom-sayers notwithstanding), doing quite well and being enjoyed by a healthy number of people. There's no reason to think it would have failed in 18 months, or for even long after that.

     I realize there are people out there who feel that because *they* don't like something, that certainly no one - except fanbois or "Tolkien freaks" - could possibly enjoy it, and express as much quite vehemently. That's an unfortunate kind of short-sightedness that, unfortunately, doesn't carry any weight outside the message forums they're posted in. But really... to be speculating on the longevity of a game that is, by MMO standards, still in its infancy is a bit crazy to me.

     

    "If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road,
    and the cash shop selling asphalt..."
    - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops

    image

  • airheadairhead Member UncommonPosts: 718

    Originally posted by WSIMike


     
     
    Originally posted by airhead


     
    Originally posted by WSIMike


     
    Originally posted by airhead


    Anything less than 18 months would be scandalous (that's the break-even point for lifers), and Turbine has already had enough of scandal (ac2,ddo).



    AC2.. okay I'll give you that.

     That said, if LoTRO has less than an 18 month run, it would be sad and unfortunate for those who enjoy it (of course, those who don't like it would be dancing in the streets, so to speak)... It wouldn't be a scandal. 

    k. will give you the DDO point.

    To turn off the servers before 18 months would be scandalous because that's the break-even point for the LIFERS. In other words, lifers are in the red until 18 months of gaming arrives, after which, they will benefit from their initial decision. (figuring interest on cash etc...)  You know about the LIFERS don't you?



    Yes I know about the LIFERS. Caps-Lock and emphasis was unnecessary.  There's no reason to think it would have failed in 18 months, or for even long after that.

    But really... to be speculating on the longevity of a game that is, by MMO standards, still in its infancy is a bit crazy to me.

    k. I said an 18-month cut-off would be scandalous, you said it would not, I said it would and explained why, and you said 'ouch, the caps-lock was unnecessary' ?  And then going off about how the 'haters' out there exist and will rejoice at lotro failing, while quoting me, doesn't that imply you are accusing me of being one of 'them' ?  But of course I'm not, so I will continue in said style and interpret your avoidance of my counter as concession... i.e. you agree that an 18-month server shutdown 'would' be scandalous, (note: will be using quotes from now on instead of caps, except for acronyms, I hope you are ok with that)

    Of course my crystal ball would never predict lotro shutdown in 2 years or 18 months or anything like that. But this was a 'bait' thread to begin with. The OP wants to draw out opposing views on the longevity estimates of lotro. It's that general belief in the Socratic method... that argumentation yields truth. It's the basis of our judicial procedures, election debates, media, etc. I was really just setting an absolute low-minimum on the time (18-months)... meaning their is essentially a zero chance that the game will not last 18 months, barring Turbine going out of business for some wierd reason like that...

    But I enjoy the role-play, so I will play the low-baller for the benefit of this thread.... hehe

    First, one must remember that Turbine is a financially-sensitive company. Their history has proven this. Is this bad? Well, not really. But it is a fact. For example, instead of continuing with their free monthly updates for AC2, they hyped up that a big announcement was coming. When it came, it was essentially this: "We will not be doing any more monthly updates, but we will be devoting all that development over the next 6 months to our upcoming expansion pack". After lots of moans from customers and 6-months later, xpack is released and sold with little marketing. Then 3-5 months after that, Turbine announces game shutdown to occur while still selling xpack copies on their website and in stores. I had to inform the local Best Buy guy that he was selling an MMO (he had 10 copies on the shelves) that was going to be shutdown in 20 days time.

    So bottom line, Turbine has proven they live by the dime and will do whatever they think will make the most money within the 'short-range' timeframe. All of their pretense at caring for their customers is so ridiculous as to be laughable.

    Second, there is the nature of the game. When they chose against going sandbox MMO (was called MEO at the time) they relegated the game to be primarily a PvE-only game with 'content' being produced by the devs only. I personally doubt that any development company can produce pve content at a pace to keep up with consumption. The virtual worlds are getting more detailed as time goes on, requiring more modeling time. The maturity of the mmo player community is increasing, so they will demand more savy content, more interesting and complex encounters, and they will consume new content at a faster rate. Those two factors combine to imply that the dev-produced pve-content model will be strained to retain subscriptions.

    So eventually, the lifers funding will run out, and expect Turbine to move those 'free-monthly-content' to paid xpacks.

    But I have to caveat and mention that Turbine has a couple of big things going for them, which will let them hang around for some time to come:

    1. essentially zero competition.

    2. the most widely known and read IP in the fantasy genre... and they have 80%+ of that 'content' yet to come....

    So I would give it at least 3-4 more years. The negative PR from a shutdown before that would be the end (or only because of the end) of Turbine. They would get bought by SOE before lotro gets shut off.

     

  • WSIMikeWSIMike Member Posts: 5,564
    Originally posted by airhead


     
    Originally posted by WSIMike


     
     
    Originally posted by airhead


     
    Originally posted by WSIMike


     
    Originally posted by airhead


    Anything less than 18 months would be scandalous (that's the break-even point for lifers), and Turbine has already had enough of scandal (ac2,ddo).



    AC2.. okay I'll give you that.

     That said, if LoTRO has less than an 18 month run, it would be sad and unfortunate for those who enjoy it (of course, those who don't like it would be dancing in the streets, so to speak)... It wouldn't be a scandal. 

    k. will give you the DDO point.

    To turn off the servers before 18 months would be scandalous because that's the break-even point for the LIFERS. In other words, lifers are in the red until 18 months of gaming arrives, after which, they will benefit from their initial decision. (figuring interest on cash etc...)  You know about the LIFERS don't you?



    Yes I know about the LIFERS. Caps-Lock and emphasis was unnecessary.  There's no reason to think it would have failed in 18 months, or for even long after that.

    But really... to be speculating on the longevity of a game that is, by MMO standards, still in its infancy is a bit crazy to me.

     

    k. I said an 18-month cut-off would be scandalous, you said it would not, I said it would and explained why, and you said 'ouch, the caps-lock was unnecessary' ?  And then going off about how the 'haters' out there exist and will rejoice at lotro failing, while quoting me, doesn't that imply you are accusing me of being one of 'them' ?  But of course I'm not, so I will continue in said style and interpret your avoidance of my counter as concession... i.e. you agree that an 18-month server shutdown 'would' be scandalous, (note: will be using quotes from now on instead of caps, except for acronyms, I hope you are ok with that)

    Umm.. a concession? Hardly.

    No... I did not say your explanation was not necessary, and I think you know that. I said the question, "You know about the LIFERS don't you?" and the use of caps for 'LIFERS - as if it required emphasis - was not necessary. The presumption and condescension in it wasn't lost on me and I was responding directly to that.

    Anyway...

    You're reading *wayyyy* too much into what I'm saying.

    My point was - it's speculative at best and, in my opinion, a non-topic because the game is barely 7 months old. We're discussing whether something that *could maybe possibly happen* in another 11 months would be "scandalous" or not. It's like going into a brand-new relationship already wondering how long it might be before the breakup and whose fault it might be. If/when it happens, then it'll be something a bit more founded to discuss. Until then, it all seems a bit vaporous to me. That's my opinion.

    I went on to my second paragraph as a separate thought - that I don't understand all the fascination on whether the game will survive or not as it's still very new and has been quite successful. This was addressing the numerous posts of a similar vein that I've seen, particularly about this game. I've seen people curious of other MMO's popularity and well-being. But never so much as for LoTRO. The game's longevity seems to be a major concern, or at least interest, to many people. I wasn't addressing anyone in particular, you included. Though I can see why you might have taken it that way, since it was in the same post.

     

    "If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road,
    and the cash shop selling asphalt..."
    - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops

    image

  • airheadairhead Member UncommonPosts: 718

    Originally posted by WSIMike


    Umm.. a concession? Hardly.
    No... I did not say your explanation was not necessary, and I think you know that. I said the question, "You know about the LIFERS don't you?" and the use of caps for 'LIFERS - as if it required emphasis - was not necessary. The presumption and condescension in it wasn't lost on me and I was responding directly to that.
    Anyway...
     

     

    First... all the other stuff you've said, I agree with. Lots of people making a big deal about subscription numbers, longevity estimates, etc. It's all kind of ridiculous I agree. But I didn't start the thread... I'm just participating for the OPs benefit. But we agree on the overall stuff, and the caps and reply is all just goofing off from my end.

    But my point, "any cut-off prior to 18 months would be scandalous", I can't imagine that not being completely obvious and undebatable. I'm using the term 'scandalous' in the sense of almost criminal, possibly leading to class-action lawsuit criminal, or a minimum leading to such a bad smear on the Turbine name that they would have trouble remaining in business. It would be much worse than just some hoopla from haters and moans from customers... there would be some serious repercussions if Turbine did that. So serious, that it's ridiculous to even contemplate.

    Is that the point you are disagreeing with?

    Turbine sells game "you can pay 10/mo if you buy before date X. You can pay $200 for a lifetime sub." And then they end up pocketing the money and just turn the servers off before 18 months. You are saying that would be ok? That it wouldn't result in any scandal whatsoever? That Turbine would just continue on without any financial repercussions? If you disagree, then that is what you are saying... just want to make sure. Are you saying that?

  • WSIMikeWSIMike Member Posts: 5,564

    Originally posted by airhead


     
    Originally posted by WSIMike


    Umm.. a concession? Hardly.
    No... I did not say your explanation was not necessary, and I think you know that. I said the question, "You know about the LIFERS don't you?" and the use of caps for 'LIFERS - as if it required emphasis - was not necessary. The presumption and condescension in it wasn't lost on me and I was responding directly to that.
    Anyway...
     

     

     

    First... all the other stuff you've said, I agree with. Lots of people making a big deal about subscription numbers, longevity estimates, etc. It's all kind of ridiculous I agree. But I didn't start the thread... I'm just participating for the OPs benefit. But we agree on the overall stuff, and the caps and reply is all just goofing off from my end.

    But my point, "any cut-off prior to 18 months would be scandalous", I can't imagine that not being completely obvious and undebatable. I'm using the term 'scandalous' in the sense of almost criminal, possibly leading to class-action lawsuit criminal, or a minimum leading to such a bad smear on the Turbine name that they would have trouble remaining in business. It would be much worse than just some hoopla from haters and moans from customers... there would be some serious repercussions if Turbine did that. So serious, that it's ridiculous to even contemplate.

    Is that the point you are disagreeing with?

    Turbine sells game "you can pay 10/mo if you buy before date X. You can pay $200 for a lifetime sub." And then they end up pocketing the money and just turn the servers off before 18 months. You are saying that would be ok? That it wouldn't result in any scandal whatsoever? That Turbine would just continue on without any financial repercussions? If you disagree, then that is what you are saying... just want to make sure. Are you saying that?


    I'm not agreeing or disagreeing. I'm saying that, at barely 7 months in and with no signs of the game faltering, I think it's a bit too abstract and hypothetical to even consider.

    Now, entertaining that possibility... Were it to happen, and Turbine pulled the plug before 18 months... I think it depends on how they handled it. If they just turned off the servers and stole away like a thief in the night, then it would be pretty screwed up. If they were up-front about it and reimbursed people who paid for the lifetime membership, then no, it wouldn't be.

    But again... To debate whether something that may or may not happen 11 months from now would be "scandalous" or not is, to me, a bit pointless.

     

     

     

    "If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road,
    and the cash shop selling asphalt..."
    - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops

    image

  • KyleranKyleran Member LegendaryPosts: 41,517

    I've played LotRO.... but not any more.  All I can say as it seems to be a solid product with strong support from the development team...I can't see this game disappearing anytime in the next 5 years.... (unless of course, WAR is so absolutely fun that no one plays any other games)......   

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  • observerobserver Member RarePosts: 3,685

    If EQ is still up and running, LotRO has nothing to fear.

    Hell, look at Vanguard, that's still going!

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