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LOTRO Numbers

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  • openedge1openedge1 Member Posts: 2,582

    Originally posted by DonnieBrasco


     
    Originally posted by openedge1


     
    Originally posted by Yeebo


    I love LoTRO, I think it's an utterly fantastic game.  The population does seem to be growing steadily (on my server at least).   All indications are that LoTRO is a hit, if not a WoW killer (and I honestly doubt we will see one of those any time soon).

     

    This sentence always fascinates me...how does someone know if a server is "steadily" growing...What is YOUR criteria to see this "steady" growth. What do you see that other people do not that shows to YOU that more "physical" people are joining the server?

    Having re-upped for a trial, I joined the Landroval server. I did a mass /who after leaving newbie world..I changed the settings to show level 1-50 and in Bree and various locations...

    We all know the /who is so unscientific that you cannot base your numbers off of this...but, you also cannot say "I see growth"...because you would have to know for sure there is growth...now...from my search..

    There was a HUGE number of Level 1's I saw (at least 50 out of the 100 list)...then jumps to say level 10-12 (just a few people)...then I saw level 20-30's. Then I saw another mass of level 50's (about 10-12)

    Now...is this what you have done? Or do you see "more people" running around? What levels? How do YOU see that more "physical" people have joined your server. How do you know these are not "alts" ...

    You need to be careful with a statement like that. Unless you work for Turbine, you do not know for sure how many people are "subs".

    From this calculation above...I would see a bunch of people joining the "trial"...not new "subs"...otherwise those middle numbers would be much larger...as people level...but, no one is levelling. I would call those new people "trialbies" (lol)...that would not be growth...

    Cheers!

     

    The population is definitely growing steadily (if no exponentially) since the free trial was introduced, and the word is also spreading (about the free trial). During the last weeks the "served overloaded" icon is more and more frequent, besides the last weekend I had not problems whatsoever finding a PUG for any fellowship quests I wanted to do.

     

    A month ago it was definitely a pain in the back. On Snowbourn there is a massive layer of people in the 30'ies and early 40'ies - they are mostly the "powergamers" who only joined a couple of weeks ago, when the free trial kicked off (and subscribed since). I am not saaying that the high level population WILL also continue growing, since these people are precisely the ones who will get to lvl 50 in another couple of weeks, and they will start to get bored. BUTy as Yeebo said, the population took a healthy growth in the last couple of weeks, and is growing currently as well. At least on my server in EU.

    DB

    Again...there is no way to know this specifically. Unless you have access to numbers we do not..The only way you as a player can figure this out is eyeballing people running around or the /who trick.....and this is not an indicator of growth either. The "heavy load" icon is also not an indicator of "growth"...but maybe a mass of the "trialbies"...and playing a trial is not "growth"...as you are unsure if these "trialbies" will be retained.

    The only one's who can REALLY profess growth is Turbine...and they do not say anything..

    We will just have to wait and see if Turbine makes any other announcements (like maybe ...5 million characters?)

    Cheers!

  • AckbarNLAckbarNL Member Posts: 458

    Originally posted by openedge1


     
    Originally posted by DonnieBrasco


     
    Originally posted by openedge1


     
    Originally posted by Yeebo


    I love LoTRO, I think it's an utterly fantastic game.  The population does seem to be growing steadily (on my server at least).   All indications are that LoTRO is a hit, if not a WoW killer (and I honestly doubt we will see one of those any time soon).

     

    This sentence always fascinates me...how does someone know if a server is "steadily" growing...What is YOUR criteria to see this "steady" growth. What do you see that other people do not that shows to YOU that more "physical" people are joining the server?

    Having re-upped for a trial, I joined the Landroval server. I did a mass /who after leaving newbie world..I changed the settings to show level 1-50 and in Bree and various locations...

    We all know the /who is so unscientific that you cannot base your numbers off of this...but, you also cannot say "I see growth"...because you would have to know for sure there is growth...now...from my search..

    There was a HUGE number of Level 1's I saw (at least 50 out of the 100 list)...then jumps to say level 10-12 (just a few people)...then I saw level 20-30's. Then I saw another mass of level 50's (about 10-12)

    Now...is this what you have done? Or do you see "more people" running around? What levels? How do YOU see that more "physical" people have joined your server. How do you know these are not "alts" ...

    You need to be careful with a statement like that. Unless you work for Turbine, you do not know for sure how many people are "subs".

    From this calculation above...I would see a bunch of people joining the "trial"...not new "subs"...otherwise those middle numbers would be much larger...as people level...but, no one is levelling. I would call those new people "trialbies" (lol)...that would not be growth...

    Cheers!

     

    The population is definitely growing steadily (if no exponentially) since the free trial was introduced, and the word is also spreading (about the free trial). During the last weeks the "served overloaded" icon is more and more frequent, besides the last weekend I had not problems whatsoever finding a PUG for any fellowship quests I wanted to do.

     

    A month ago it was definitely a pain in the back. On Snowbourn there is a massive layer of people in the 30'ies and early 40'ies - they are mostly the "powergamers" who only joined a couple of weeks ago, when the free trial kicked off (and subscribed since). I am not saaying that the high level population WILL also continue growing, since these people are precisely the ones who will get to lvl 50 in another couple of weeks, and they will start to get bored. BUTy as Yeebo said, the population took a healthy growth in the last couple of weeks, and is growing currently as well. At least on my server in EU.

    DB

     

    Again...there is no way to know this specifically. Unless you have access to numbers we do not..The only way you as a player can figure this out is eyeballing people running around or the /who trick.....and this is not an indicator of growth either. The "heavy load" icon is also not an indicator of "growth"...but maybe a mass of the "trialbies"...and playing a trial is not "growth"...as you are unsure if these "trialbies" will be retained.

    The only one's who can REALLY profess growth is Turbine...and they do not say anything..

    We will just have to wait and see if Turbine makes any other announcements (like maybe ...5 million characters?)

    Cheers!

    Do we have to know it specifically?

    I feel it in my fingers

    I feel it in my toos

    Lotro is al around me

    And so my feeling groos

    Is written on ween

    Its everywhere I goes

    So if you really want it

    Come on and let is show!

    Playing: World of Warcraft.
    Played: Lord of the Rings Online, Starwars Galaxies.
    Tried: Starwars the Old Republic, Everquest 2, Guild Wars, Vanguard, Age of Conan, Aion.

  • openedge1openedge1 Member Posts: 2,582

     

    Again...there is no way to know this specifically. Unless you have access to numbers we do not..The only way you as a player can figure this out is eyeballing people running around or the /who trick.....and this is not an indicator of growth either. The "heavy load" icon is also not an indicator of "growth"...but maybe a mass of the "trialbies"...and playing a trial is not "growth"...as you are unsure if these "trialbies" will be retained.
    The only one's who can REALLY profess growth is Turbine...and they do not say anything..
    We will just have to wait and see if Turbine makes any other announcements (like maybe ...5 million characters?)
    Cheers!

     

    Do we have to know it specifically?

    I feel it in my fingers

    I feel it in my toos

    Lotro is al around me

    And so my feeling groos

    Is written on ween

    Its everywhere I goes

    So if you really want it

    Come on and let is show!

     

    Not really...but for the purpose of this thread, the discussion is on numbers...and for someone to state there is growth as a "FACT"...really needs to understand that there are no "facts" of growth....there is no data to support this, just people saying "Hey there is some growth" ...

    Just my opinion...

     

    (EDIT: As a side note...sales of the game declined in September in the UK...

    http://www.yougamers.com/news/11808_uk_pc_games_sales_chart_-_september_22nd/

    And is not even on the US charts anymore...

    http://www.yougamers.com/news/12006_us_pc_games_sales_chart_-_september_15th/) ...

  • YeeboYeebo Member UncommonPosts: 1,361

     

    Originally posted by openedge1


     
    Originally posted by Yeebo


    I love LoTRO, I think it's an utterly fantastic game.  The population does seem to be growing steadily (on my server at least).   All indications are that LoTRO is a hit, if not a WoW killer (and I honestly doubt we will see one of those any time soon).

     

    This sentence always fascinates me...how does someone know if a server is "steadily" growing...What is YOUR criteria to see this "steady" growth. What do you see that other people do not that shows to YOU that more "physical" people are joining the server?

    Having re-upped for a trial, I joined the Landroval server. I did a mass /who after leaving newbie world..I changed the settings to show level 1-50 and in Bree and various locations...

    We all know the /who is so unscientific that you cannot base your numbers off of this...but, you also cannot say "I see growth"...because you would have to know for sure there is growth...now...from my search..

    There was a HUGE number of Level 1's I saw (at least 50 out of the 100 list)...then jumps to say level 10-12 (just a few people)...then I saw level 20-30's. Then I saw another mass of level 50's (about 10-12)

    Now...is this what you have done? Or do you see "more people" running around? What levels? How do YOU see that more "physical" people have joined your server. How do you know these are not "alts" ...

    You need to be careful with a statement like that. Unless you work for Turbine, you do not know for sure how many people are "subs".

    From this calculation above...I would see a bunch of people joining the "trial"...not new "subs"...otherwise those middle numbers would be much larger...as people level...but, no one is levelling. I would call those new people "trialbies" (lol)...that would not be growth...

    Cheers!

     

    The key point in the part that you highlighted is "seem."  I can back that up with my observations, but it's still just my impression.  And then you would A. either point out that they are just the impressions of one player on one server, or B. nitpick on my observations (i.e., they don't mean anything becuase of X, Y, and Z...).  It's a pointless debate and I won't engage in it.

     

    If you read my entire post the point was:

    A. I'm a fan of the game, so I'm not poopooing the 800K just to bash the game.  When I originally responded to this it was in the main forum, so it seemed necessary to make my stance on the game clear before I went on.

    B. There is no way in hell the game has 800K subs.  I'm tired of seeing that number, and I think propogating it is bad journalism (MMO chart is not the only place I've seen it).

    I literally have no f-ing idea how many subs the game has.  I think i made it perfectly clear that I was using the latest methods of ass math (i.e., pulling numbers out of your butt and then proceeding to speculate wildy about them).  I said my best guess was 500k at best.  Unlike some folks here I'm not on a vendeta.

     

     

     

    I don't want to write this, and you don't want to read it. But now it's too late for both of us.

  • openedge1openedge1 Member Posts: 2,582

     



    The key point in the part that you highlighted is "seem."  I can back that up with my observations, but it's still just my impression.  And then you would A. either point out that they are just the impressions of one player on one server, or B. nitpick on my observations (i.e., they don't mean anything becuase of X, Y, and Z...).  It's a pointless debate and I won't engage in it.

     

    If you read my entire post the point was:

    A. I'm a fan of the game, so I'm not poopooing the 800K just to bash the game.  When I originally responded to this it was in the main forum, so it seemed necessary to make my stance on the game clear before I went on.

    B. There is no way in hell the game has 800K subs.  I'm tired of seeing that number, and I think propogating it is bad journalism (MMO chart is not the only place I've seen it).

    I literally have no f-ing idea how many subs the game has.  I think i made it perfectly clear that I was using the latest methods of ass math (i.e., pulling numbers out of your butt and then proceeding to speculate wildy about them).  I said my best guess was 500k at best.  Unlike some folks here I'm not on a vendeta.

     

     

    You seem to have taken it personal....I actually was discussing the wording, as you are not the only one to use those words....just like in EQ2 or Vanguard even...they discuss growth with no real data to back that up..

    Personally, no one really knows for sure if any of these games have growth unless we hear it from the horses mouth (can we say Blizzard?)...

    But, I am glad you feel there is "growth", but I am calling "trials" for that growth...retaining those "trials" is another story...and all we can do is wait and see how it progresses..all I am doing is trying to have a discussion on the actual post..."Numbers"...so settle down.

    No one knows for sure if growth is taking place...but, by sales alone there is no growth...so one can only hope that the trials that are being played will equal sales for Turbine...

     

  • PerceptionPerception Member Posts: 188

    Amazing!  Second Life has over 4 million subscribers!!

     

    If you believe the numbers on that site, I've got some Oklahoma timberland to sell ya.

  • openedge1openedge1 Member Posts: 2,582

    Originally posted by Perception


    Amazing!  Second Life has over 4 million subscribers!!
     
    If you believe the numbers on that site, I've got some Oklahoma timberland to sell ya.

    Exactly ....

  • YeeboYeebo Member UncommonPosts: 1,361

     

    Originally posted by openedge1


     


    The key point in the part that you highlighted is "seem."  I can back that up with my observations, but it's still just my impression.  And then you would A. either point out that they are just the impressions of one player on one server, or B. nitpick on my observations (i.e., they don't mean anything becuase of X, Y, and Z...).  It's a pointless debate and I won't engage in it.

     

    If you read my entire post the point was:

    A. I'm a fan of the game, so I'm not poopooing the 800K just to bash the game.  When I originally responded to this it was in the main forum, so it seemed necessary to make my stance on the game clear before I went on.

    B. There is no way in hell the game has 800K subs.  I'm tired of seeing that number, and I think propogating it is bad journalism (MMO chart is not the only place I've seen it).

    I literally have no f-ing idea how many subs the game has.  I think i made it perfectly clear that I was using the latest methods of ass math (i.e., pulling numbers out of your butt and then proceeding to speculate wildy about them).  I said my best guess was 500k at best.  Unlike some folks here I'm not on a vendeta.

     

     

    You seem to have taken it personal....I actually was discussing the wording, as you are not the only one to use those words....just like in EQ2 or Vanguard even...they discuss growth with no real data to back that up..

    Personally, no one really knows for sure if any of these games have growth unless we hear it from the horses mouth (can we say Blizzard?)...

    But, I am glad you feel there is "growth", but I am calling "trials" for that growth...retaining those "trials" is another story...and all we can do is wait and see how it progresses..all I am doing is trying to have a discussion on the actual post..."Numbers"...so settle down.

    No one knows for sure if growth is taking place...but, by sales alone there is no growth...so one can only hope that the trials that are being played will equal sales for Turbine...

     

    Yeah, I was having an attack of cranky when I wrote that. I  really shouldn't post in the mornings.

     

    As for why I say that it seems my server is growing steadilly, it's based mainly on that fact that my kinsh is growing steadilly (we don't recruit anyone under 25), and the server load messages (there weren't any a few months ago).  But yes, as we have both said, no-one really has any idea how many subs there are or whether the pop is growing or diminishing until hard numbers are released.  And given that mythologically high numbers of subs have become accepted by the buisiness press, I doubt Turbine will be giving us real numbers any time soon (unless of coure subs ectually exceeed 800K, which i don't really see happening).

    As far as "based on sales alone there is no growth" I don't see where you get that from.   The latest NPD report I saw quoted (also by an article that incorrectly quoted the 800K subs, I'm sorry to say) indicated that the game has sold 200K boxes (in NA) since April (during the same period WoW sold 315K boxes, incidentally), up from the previous report of 170K boxes.  I would call that "steady growth."  It was not clear from how it was quoted whether that included pre-orders, but I assume it does.  The article I'm talking about is here:

    www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/sep2007/id20070928_550277_page_2.htm

    I haven't found any source that claims the game stopped selling altogether at some point.   As far as whether sales are exceeeding the numbers of players that get bored and leave, who the hell knows?  All we can say from this is that the total number of boxes sold is has grown steadilly.  Subs?  No clue, and no-one else that posts here really knows either. 

    I will say this.  I think lifetime sub is a very clever ploy on Turbine's part.  They A. get someone to pay for 20 months in advance while they are still in the honymoon phase, B. have an effective floor of subscribers they can alwasy claim no matter how many people are logging, and C. they practically ensure that a certain base of players will at least stop in to check things out every once in a while (if you had a lfietime sub, why wouldn't you?).  It's a clever buisiness strategy.

    As an aside, I noticed in another thread on another board I said that based on what I've read I would guess that EQ II has growing steadilly since EoF.  I wonder why you didn't call me on it there?  Hmmm . . .

    I don't want to write this, and you don't want to read it. But now it's too late for both of us.

  • openedge1openedge1 Member Posts: 2,582



    Yeah, I was having an attack of cranky when I wrote that. I  really shouldn't post in the mornings.
     Cool...NP...thanks man
    As for why I say that it seems my server is growing steadilly, it's based mainly on that fact that my kinsh is growing steadilly (we don't recruit anyone under 25), and the server load messages (there weren't any a few months ago).  But yes, as we have both said, no-one really has any idea how many subs there are or whether the pop is growing or diminishing until hard numbers are released.  And given that mythologically high numbers of subs have become accepted by the buisiness press, I doubt Turbine will be giving us real numbers any time soon (unless of coure subs ectually exceeed 800K, which i don't really see happening).
    The 800k seems to be the magic number being bandied about...so, your right in that no one has an idea, and we can only speculate just like the market has... But, I am glad to hear your kinship has grown, and hopefully it will continue.
    As far as "based on sales alone there is no growth" I don't see where you get that from.   The latest NPD report I saw quoted (also by an article that incorrectly quoted the 800K subs, I'm sorry to say) indicated that the game has sold 200K boxes (in NA) since April (during the same period WoW sold 315K boxes, incidentally), up from the previous report of 170K boxes.  I would call that "steady growth."  It was not clear from how it was quoted whether that included pre-orders, but I assume it does.  The article I'm talking about is here:
    www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/sep2007/id20070928_550277_page_2.htm
    Your correct...my wording was not correct in that there should be some growth...as sales are still going, but the sales have been down from previous months...and the Blizzard numbers were 335,000...we also have to note, this is for a title that has been out for 3 some years now?...The fact WoW still sells those numbers is telling...and will Turbine be able to keep up their numbers as time goes on...especially with AoC and WAR on the horizon...time will tell...
    I haven't found any source that claims the game stopped selling altogether at some point.   As far as whether sales are exceeeding the numbers of players that get bored and leave, who the hell knows?  All we can say from this is that the total number of boxes sold is has grown steadilly.  Subs?  No clue, and no-one else that posts here really knows either. 
    This also begs the question, how is growth versus loss for their numbers as well. Selling boxes is one thing...the key word is retaining...
    I will say this.  I think lifetime sub is a very clever ploy on Turbine's part.  They A. get someone to pay for 20 months in advance while they are still in the honymoon phase, B. have an effective floor of subscribers they can alwasy claim no matter how many people are logging, and C. they practically ensure that a certain base of players will at least stop in to check things out every once in a while (if you had a lfietime sub, why wouldn't you?).  It's a clever buisiness strategy.
    Agreed....and the fact Hellgate is also pulling this little trick..I agree, it was a wise move...as I had stated earlier...a friend of mine bought lifetime, and now does not play...wonder if he got his moneys worth?...but Turbine got their cash...lol
    As an aside, I noticed in another thread on another board I said that based on what I've read I would guess that EQ II has growing steadilly since EoF.  I wonder why you didn't call me on it there?  Hmmm . . .
    I did not see that, I am sorry...and any impression I have for growth in that title is based on number of posts of people joining, people asking questions, whether in forums or chat...that also is not to say it is not the same in LOTRO...but, if you noted in my follow up post to you..I did state in any game how can this sentence be used...We do not know, unless we are told by the developer...and hopefully without inflated numbers that mean nothing (how does one calculate "Characters created"...I mean I know of 3 I made that I deleted, and quite a few spread out over several servers...4 Million is a sneaky way to get some notice..and I am not alone in this thought...as many various sites have written about this special numbering of people..)


    it just so happened that as I was reading this forum, and saw your statement, I just wanted to follow up on that sentence..as anyone can say they have seen growth...but is it real? Only the publisher knows for sure..
    And thank you ...this is a good conversation...as that what all our posts should be....discussion, not arguments or attacks..
    Cheers!

     

  • sodapopinskisodapopinski Member Posts: 30

    Well, I'm one of those helping the supposed "steady incline".  Fun game.  I'm tired of WoW, and, well, neither Conan nor Warhammer will be out in a while, so I tried the free trial.  I hated this game for whatever reason in Beta, but it feels like it has come a long way.  I think as far as questing and such it is a better game than WoW, but I wish the world, at least what I've seen of it so far, was a little more filled out.  Some areas seem rather plain compared to WoW, but that's just my opinion.  Also, the community has been very friendly and welcoming so far, though a few don't seem to understand that those of us taking advantage of the free trial may actually be intrigued enough to purchase the game.   I'll definitely be playing this game until something new comes along.

  • GrumpyMelGrumpyMel Member Posts: 30

    Some comments for folks posting here.

    I don't have any game industry experience but I make a living running network operations for an ASP.

    For you guys trying to infer number of possible subscriptions based upon the number of servers being run... it's a futile excersize and your estimates are going to be wildly inaccurate unless you have access to server info that only folks actualy working for Turbine would.

    To start, you would need to know what sort of server resource footprint the LOTRO server application had at different levels of usage. Unless you work for Turbine and have seen thier performance metrics, you wouldn't know that. Nor can you reliably infer that even on a ballpark level by looking at other games you know. That's like saying you know how well a particular PC will run AutoCad because you know how well it runs Excel.  These applications are different, and they are going to have different performance metrics.

    Next you would need to know details about their server archectecture that you would only be privy to if you actualy worked in thier tech department. For one thing, what you regard as a "server" might not even be an individual box....they could be using clustering technology.... which means it would be multiple servers clustered together and presented to the outside world as a single shard/server.

    Finally, you can't really infer too much even by the fact they haven't added new servers. You would have to know about thier capacity planning/scaling plans and about thier network operations budget. In many cases it's better to scale simply by adding resources to a server/cluster then to bring new ones online. In some cases,  companies make decisions to launch using only a small fraction of thier available capacity (for instance, when limiting which servers new accounts/users decide to access would be problematic or undesirable). In other cases, companies badly overestimate the amount of capacity they are actualy going to need. In any event, hardware tends to be a pretty small portion of the overall budget in these sort of applications. The vast majority of the budget tends to go into development costs and has already been spent by the time a game releases. That's why so few MMO's, historicaly, have shut thier doors..... because keeping the hardware running is a pretty minimal investment when compared to producing the thing in the first place.... any money they take in subs (beyond a very base amount to keep things running) is a chance to recoup that initial investment.

    Note, I'm not trying to defend the 800K number here.... we know where that number comes from.... a journalist making a bad assumption and not bothering to do any basic fact checking. Frankly, I too think that if Turbine had those kind of numbers they'd be crowing em from the rooftops...rather then relying on creative marketing spin.

    That said, I'm a big fan of LOTRO.... I suspect it's going to be around and healthy for quite a while..... and as far as my own subjective observations go....it looks like the server populations are healthy...and generaly growing at a MODEST rate.... Nothing to stop the presses about.... but nothing to be emberassed about either (unless you've hyped it to the moon.... then again, I haven't seen a marketing department that could refrain from doing that yet.... no matter what the product is).

  • AgtSmithAgtSmith Member Posts: 1,498

     

    Originally posted by GrumpyMel 
    For you guys trying to infer number of possible subscriptions based upon the number of servers being run... it's a futile excersize and your estimates are going to be wildly inaccurate unless you have access to server info that only folks actualy working for Turbine would.


     

     

    True enough.  But given some common circumstances of the industry we can say that no addition of servers means it is a fair inference that the game is not growing in a manner that would indicate it is off to a million sub type user base.  For this to be true they would have had to start with that base from day one and not have lost many people at all, since LotRO has been seen tapering off the sales charts it is fair to assume that the sales rate is not growing meaning that even with better than normal churn it just isn't likely they are reaching record numbers given the no new servers things, the number of them, and the sale charts we can track.

     

    In short, we cannot say how the game is doing in terms of subs - but there is absolutely NOThING to indicate it is doing any kind fo record type numbers, if anything - the indicators show the opposite.  the issue isn't whether the game is a flop, or failing, or bleeding subs - io don't think those things are true.  I would bet that LotRo has a good solid and respectable sub base but nothing of record setting proportion as so many, including turbine, seem to constantly try to infer with misleading statements and bogus stats.

    --------------------------------
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  • JonMichaelJonMichael Member Posts: 796
    Originally posted by AgtSmith


     In short, we cannot say how the game is doing in terms of subs - but there is absolutely NOThING to indicate it is doing any kind fo record type numbers, if anything - the indicators show the opposite.  the issue isn't whether the game is a flop, or failing, or bleeding subs - io don't think those things are true.  I would bet that LotRo has a good solid and respectable sub base but nothing of record setting proportion as so many, including turbine, seem to constantly try to infer with misleading statements and bogus stats.



    Just like you can't prove their statements are right... you also can't prove that their statements are misleading or bogus.

    _________________________________
    JonMichael

    Currently: AION, an MMO Beta under NDA
    Played: WAR, LOTRO, Hellgate: London, CoX, GW, SotNW, DAOC, EQ2, SWG, WoW, AO, Horizons, Second Life, There, TSO
    Beta'd: There, Second Life, EQ2, DAOC:LotM, LOTRO, Tabula Rasa, Gods and Heroes, Hellgate: London, Requiem:Bloodymare, AoC, WAR, DDO, Fallen Earth

  • openedge1openedge1 Member Posts: 2,582

     

    Originally posted by JonMichael

    Originally posted by AgtSmith


     In short, we cannot say how the game is doing in terms of subs - but there is absolutely NOThING to indicate it is doing any kind fo record type numbers, if anything - the indicators show the opposite.  the issue isn't whether the game is a flop, or failing, or bleeding subs - io don't think those things are true.  I would bet that LotRo has a good solid and respectable sub base but nothing of record setting proportion as so many, including turbine, seem to constantly try to infer with misleading statements and bogus stats.



    Just like you can't prove their statements are right... you also can't prove that their statements are misleading or bogus.

    Then why would someone use a statement of "4 million characters"? That is called "spin"...lets find a factoid that we can use that is large...because we all know size means everything...right?

     

    It may not be a bogus number, but it IS misleading...Why? Because their goal at Turbine was to get the press talking about them..simple really. And actually nothing wrong with that...a brand in the consumers minds is an active brand...keep it in the papers, and people will remember us...

    But, by using those numbers...what has happened? People are guesstimating overall scrips...and that is where we get that 800k...that is misleading..and of course has caused a ruckus on the boards..

    If I have 500 people that come to my restaurant, but each person bought 5 hamburgers...what would I advertise..

    We had 500 customers today...

    or

    We sold 2500 hamburgers today...

    Choice is clear..so yea...we know why Turbine did it...it may be a real number, but it has led to misleading quotes from the press on scrips..

    Cheers!

  • AgtSmithAgtSmith Member Posts: 1,498

     

    Originally posted by JonMichael

    Originally posted by AgtSmith


     In short, we cannot say how the game is doing in terms of subs - but there is absolutely NOThING to indicate it is doing any kind fo record type numbers, if anything - the indicators show the opposite.  the issue isn't whether the game is a flop, or failing, or bleeding subs - io don't think those things are true.  I would bet that LotRo has a good solid and respectable sub base but nothing of record setting proportion as so many, including turbine, seem to constantly try to infer with misleading statements and bogus stats.



    Just like you can't prove their statements are right... you also can't prove that their statements are misleading or bogus.

     

    But that is the point of their statements - they offer up some tidbit of info which in and of itself is innocuous and incontestable - what is contestable is the way they then try to spin that into something else to give the impression of this massive record setting success.  If you cannot agree that these qualified statements and meaningless stats are just that then you have a serious perception problem.  People who can legitimately claim to be number 1, or 2, do so - they don't issue intentionally vague, overly qualified statements such as what has been quoted previously.  A game that has achieved second place in terms of subscription numbers doesn't issue a statement about 'characters created' to prove said claim - they offer subscription numbers.  If you cannot see through these distortions they you are either a willing dupe or pretty obtuse.

     

     

    Originally posted by openedge1 
    Then why would someone use a statement of "4 million characters"? That is called "spin"...lets find a factoid that we can use that is large...because we all know size means everything...right?
     
    It may not be a bogus number, but it IS misleading...Why? Because their goal at Turbine was to get the press talking about them..simple really. And actually nothing wrong with that...a brand in the consumers minds is an active brand...keep it in the papers, and people will remember us...


     

     

    Exactly.  if you cannot impress the gaming community by releasing the numbers that are the standard measure for MMOs (subscriptions) then you have to find something else that in and of itself, true or not, sounds impressive and leaves people thinking it means the same thing.  But as we all know, characters created is meaningless when you simply do the math on how many toons each sub can make across the various servers - not to mention that that could include BETA characters, deleted characters people made and ditched to try a change, or even characters Turbine themselves added just to make a falsely impressive stat.

     

    Turbine obviously wants people to think that LotRO is second only to WoW in terms of subs - since we all know WoW's sub numbers and most of th eother 'contenders' all they have to do to claim this title they obviously want is release sub numbers.  The fact that they don't SPEAKS VOLUMES to the fact that they cannot.  You just don't go about advertising your game based on the idea that it is supposedly the biggest thing since WoW and then not prove it is you had the subs to prove it.

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  • GrumpyMelGrumpyMel Member Posts: 30

    The truth of the matter here though is that what Turbine's marketing department is doing is pretty par for the course as far as marketing departments go. This kind of spin is pretty standard...and not just among game companies. Believe me, every time the marketing department over here opens thier mouths... everyone in our IT department (myself included) cringes. It doesn't even seem to matter that much whether you have a good product or a bad product..... most marketing wonks just can't seem to help themselves.... whatever thier selling always has to be labeled the best thing since the invention of the wheel.  They seem incapable of trying to sell a product based upon it's own legitimate values. At least they don't ask me to sit in on thier pitch meetings...things would get ugly quick  

  • AgtSmithAgtSmith Member Posts: 1,498

     

    Originally posted by GrumpyMel


    The truth of the matter here though is that what Turbine's marketing department is doing is pretty par for the course as far as marketing departments go. This kind of spin is pretty standard...and not just among game companies. Believe me, every time the marketing department over here opens thier mouths... everyone in our IT department (myself included) cringes. It doesn't even seem to matter that much whether you have a good product or a bad product..... most marketing wonks just can't seem to help themselves.... whatever thier selling always has to be labeled the best thing since the invention of the wheel.  They seem incapable of trying to sell a product based upon it's own legitimate values. At least they don't ask me to sit in on thier pitch meetings...things would get ugly quick  

     

     

    Perhaps, I would suggest they are marketing on the edge of honesty and banking on people misunderstanding their obscure, qualified statements and getting the idea that a falsity is in case the reality.  It isn't the first marketing plan that does this, but it is still cheesy.  And despite all that, whether in bounds, over the line, or skating close - I find it incredibly sad how many people not only fall for it but fail to recognize it even when it is pointed out to them.

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  • AckbarNLAckbarNL Member Posts: 458

    analysts estimate that the title has between 800,000 and 1 million paying players in the U.S. and Europe

     

    So either thay are brainless zombies or the people here at mmorpg are rockets scientists...

     

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  • AgtSmithAgtSmith Member Posts: 1,498

    Originally posted by sandage


    analysts estimate that the title has between 800,000 and 1 million paying players in the U.S. and Europe


     
    So either thay are brainless zombies or the people here at mmorpg are rockets scientists...
     

    analysts estimate that the title has between 3 and 59 dozen paying players in the U.S. and Europe

     

    There, now analysts are conflicted.

     

    Jeez people - just because something is written somewhere (big font and goofy colors aside) doesn't make it true.

     

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  • AckbarNLAckbarNL Member Posts: 458
    Originally posted by AgtSmith


     
    Originally posted by sandage


    analysts estimate that the title has between 800,000 and 1 million paying players in the U.S. and Europe


     
    So either thay are brainless zombies or the people here at mmorpg are rockets scientists...
     

     

    analysts estimate that the title has between 3 and 59 dozen paying players in the U.S. and Europe

     

    There, now analysts are conflicted.

     

    Jeez people - just because something is written somewhere (big font and goofy colors aside) doesn't make it true.

     

    LIES! analysts never estimated that the title has between 3 and 59 dozen paying players in the U.S. and Europe...

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  • AmalaricAmalaric Member Posts: 480

     

     

       

                                                                     

                                                             

                                                   Are you for real?!

     

     

                      I hereby slap you on the head with a dead herring!

     

     

  • openedge1openedge1 Member Posts: 2,582

    Originally posted by sandage

    Originally posted by AgtSmith


     
    Originally posted by sandage


    analysts estimate that the title has between 800,000 and 1 million paying players in the U.S. and Europe


     
    So either thay are brainless zombies or the people here at mmorpg are rockets scientists...
     

     

    analysts estimate that the title has between 3 and 59 dozen paying players in the U.S. and Europe

     

    There, now analysts are conflicted.

     

    Jeez people - just because something is written somewhere (big font and goofy colors aside) doesn't make it true.

     

    LIES! analysts never estimated that the title has between 3 and 59 dozen paying players in the U.S. and Europe...

    OMG...that was TOO funny...lol...

    He was being facetious, and you...uh believed him...

    But, the same can be said for the 800k to 1 million remark..there is NO WAY they have that many people...just based on box sales alone...there cannot be more than 200-400k people who have scrips...period...but, there is no way they have 200-400k scrips either...

    All "spin" for the media...

    Cheers!

  • KyleranKyleran Member LegendaryPosts: 43,435

    Originally posted by sandage


    analysts estimate that the title has between 800,000 and 1 million paying players in the U.S. and Europe


     
    So either thay are brainless zombies or the people here at mmorpg are rockets scientists...
     
    Go with the first part of your statement....

     

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