Fact: a piece of information about circumstances that exist or events that have occurred
WoW is claimed to be the number 1 mmo by all mainstream gaming sites, all magazines, all tv shows and by most of the population. There is a point when opinion becomes fact. Although, sure some people don't like WoW, but why rant how bad wow is? Just go on playing your game like we do and have fun doing what you do.
Fact: You should be rejected from having delusions of grandor.
Fact: In many magazines it says different about WoW. The game is beginning to decay is population. Several gaming sites tv shows and magazines have thusly stated.
Fact: In 2005 early 2006 Wow was claimed to be the number one mmorpg. What you have stated thusly above is nothing more than outdated news. Everytime I watch g4, I can never seem to even remotely see anything about World of wankoff err..Warcraft being on there.
Opinion: I personally think there should be someone to shock you everytime you have delusions of grandor for enforcing the first stated fact. But thats just opinion.
Don't get me wrong, WoW is a wonderful way to waste time when your boredom has ultimately reached your peak.
Cheers.
Chaos.
Take a deep drink of your demon Lad, tonight we tangle with the fire in the gut.
I beleave what Green is trying to tell people is that, you need to get out more and be informed about things dont waste your time with all this zombieware stuff that is out there... GW Bush is popular, someone can say GW, Bush, that ahole president and everyone knows who your talking about correct? or am I wrong?
Wouldn't infamous be more appropriate than popular in that case?
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience"
Lack of depth. WOW is superficial grind. Damn even SWG has more depth then WOW. And SWG is... profanities not allowed. How can 8 million people be wrong? How can there be any human in the world taking life of another human? I rest my case.
Someone posted that WOW has passed it's peak. I agree. WOW is on it's way down.
If you actually think SWG has more depth than WoW, you're smoking crack. Ever since the CU, SOE has been trying to make SWG more and more like WoW. They have even gone so far as to copy WoW's talent system UI for their own talent system. The only things that make SWG different than WoW is the Star Wars skins, the horrible combat system, poorly designed WoW cloned game mechanics, and a lack of 8,950,000 players.
WoW envy has pretty well put a stake in the heart of SOE management, as far as allowing any sort of creativity. Look at EQ2, the developers have spent the last year and a half making the game more and more like WoW. SOE has become the equivalent of the early 80's Italian zombie film makers to Blizzard's George Romero. They seem to think they can get people playing WoW to play their games by making inferior copies of WoW. It has worked out so well for them that EQ is still their most subscribed to game, and they have a little over half of the total subscribers, company wide, than they did just three years ago.
Coz there is NOT EVEN ONE serious game (read: non alfa, beta, publicbeta, closedbeta etc....) on markt atm, that could endanger blizzards position as MMO no. #1
wow will eventually slay itself and die a slow agonizing death.
ive never bought into the blizzard hype machine, and if the game really is sooo popular nowadays, why are they offering free months for anyone who can get a friend to return to wow?
when your on top, you dont need to make such an offer.
I would wager there are more asian goldfarmer bot accounts than north american player accounts at this time.
wow was a great game and is still doing well worldwide, but im betting the north american numbers are dwindling, if for no other reason that the game is old and the last expansion was lackluster at best.
just my personal experience, but i know at least 25 people who used to play but have quit. How many other know of a similar theme. Its very common for mmo's.
Wow will stay on top few more years, why? Coz there is NOT EVEN ONE serious game (read: non alfa, beta, publicbeta, closedbeta etc....) on markt atm, that could endanger blizzards position as MMO no. #1
Nah. It will live till something better comes out. That's all.
______________________________________ You Are Not Tifa, Cloud, Aeris, Barret, Red XIII, Vincent, Yuffie, Cait Sith, Sephiroth or even Cid. Not Any Other FF Character.
It might have been said already (not reading the other 100+ replied) but WoW won't be "destroyed" in 2008 or even for years to come (assuming by destroyed you mean that the game will become free, nobody plays it anymore or the game altogether is pulled off the market). Look at Ultima Online, the game still has subscribers (a good number of them) and it is ancient (by MMORPG standards). Given the number of people playing WoW, the game won't be destroyed for a very long time. With saying that, the game will see a drop in membership as people become bored with it or move off to the next big thing.
In 2008 there are a couple of big games (Warhammer Online and Age of Conan IMO) that might take some subscriptions from WoW. However, I seriously doubt (given the number of subscriptions WoW has) that either of those two games will kill WoW or even exceed WoW's subscription base (and that won''t make either of those two games any less successful). There will indeed become a time when WoW is far less than what it once was (probably in another 4 or 5 years when the graphics / gameplay is way inferior than the newer games) but even then the game will still make money (just like Ultima Online has).
WoW is very popular, You know what else is popular?
Halo
George W. Bush
American Idol
Dancing with the stars
Justin Timberlake
lets face it people, if it's bad - it's popular. That's because most people aren't that smart. Sad, but true.
There is a lot of people out there playing a lot of great games that are not WoW. Personally I'm having the gaming time of my live with civ 4, and then I'll be playing HG:L. People that are playing WoW are missing out on some great gaming. In most things in life I use popularity to guide me, as to what not to do. What TV not to watch, what music not to listen to. Gaming has finally caught up to the other entertainment industries.
Breathing is pretty popular, so it must be bad as well (your "logic"). Make up your own mind about things, don't let mass media influence you one way or another.
Those who dislike things based only on the fact that they are popular look just as shallow and superficial as those who only like them for the same reason.
"Those who dislike things based only on the fact that they are popular are just as shallow and superficial as those who only like them for the same reason."
I don't really understand all the WoW bashing. It is most definitely one of the best MMO's. It's very polished, user friendly, tons of content and customization, huge world with plenty of things to do, etc. I guess this is backlash from being too popular?
There is no way that WoW is going to be taken down from their leadership position anytime soon. It could be years before that happens. The mass is just too big and many of the players are still quite happily raiding and grinding away.
AoC and Warhammer will get a good chunk of subscriptions, but WoW is a total juggernaut. It's basically a cultural phenomenon. You could even call it viral.
Don't forget that Blizzard is by far the best at prolonging the lifespan of their products. Thousand of people are still playing Diablo...that game is ancient.
Eventually technology and MMO evolution will leave WoW behind, but it will be a gradual death.
WoW will never be beaten with that time. WoW is getting more popular every day and when wrath of lich king comes out.....well let's just say that WoW will not be destroyed any time soon
I think honestly, the thing that will hurt WoW would be a Anime MMO.
As one of the posters have already replied, Dragon Ball Online might do abit - Heck i was a DBZ fan when i was younger and always wanted a mmo for it, now im older, well i still like it - not as much but enough to go to the game and check it out.
Otherwise if Nintendo try and find there way into the popular PC market range and release a Pokemon MMO i reckon that will go off the charts. Pokemon sells so damn hot still even though its about 10 or so years old.
Anime will make WoW fall due to the younger generation playing WoW also loving anime cartoon shows (assuming - i did and still do anyway). Most people will say anime wont, well things like ragnarok and all the korean games won't, but a trademark Anime like Dragonball, Pokemon, Naruto or something of a like can be turned into a MMO and be acually fairly decent - IF DONE CORRECTLY.
So many good ideas are wasted by dev's trying to clone other games.
In this world, its all about taking risks, if you dont take risks you will keep trying the same thing over and over again and start seeing no improvment. Research is the main thing aswell - see whats hot, get the devs to read game forums, mmo forums none stop (have a small group even) dedicated to it and see what sells.
Its all about marketing and i think if some of the developers pull there finger out of there ^^^ i reckon we got ourselfs an all out champion. Then Blizzard will be forced to bring out Diablo 3 MMO or Starcraft MMO lol.
But all in all, its all personal choice - i love MMOs, i played and tryed practically all of them with the exception of the very earlier mmos like everquest 1 , UO etc - was too young at the time and didnt know squat. Will eventually get around to try them. But i need and i can already tell others aswell have to get a break from "Fantasy" Elves, Dwarfs and all that.
Thats my oppinion anyway, while others may disagree its all good and one view is always different from another so bag ahead and ill be glad to read it .
I agree with DCTitan. WoW has become 'the game people go back to' and 'first mmo' for too many players for some outside force to destroy it.
I can think of only two things that'd actually cause the sort of massive cliff-like loss people attach to "killer". The first would be if Blizzard itself releases a sequel or new MMORPG, which probably won't be necessary for a couple years. Sequels have done this in other cases. The second would be that when it eventually does start to lose some population (for whatever reasons), Blizzard makes a very fundamental and widely unpopular change.
The problem is, the first MMO is always the best, no matter what happens. It's the first kiss of the online world. Look at the EQ / UO / DAOC veterans, they love their first game (me too ><) and will forever compare newer games with their first one, and so its with the MMO newcomers in wow (should be the first MMO for around 90% of the playerbase). They'll stay there for some time, because the appeal of the first is just stronger than the discernment. Give them some more time.
I think honestly, the thing that will hurt WoW would be a Anime MMO.
I disagree. The biggest reason why WoW is so popular is because it drew in the casual gamer. Anime is popular, but not that popular. It's not popular enough or compelling enough to pull casual gamers away from WoW. At least not in the Western market where anime is mostly a children's genre.
More serious gamers are tired of WoW and all the other games with similar gameplay and they are looking for something new. But the number of casual gamers VASTLY outnumbers the serious gamers.
Unless there is a big paradigm shift that we simply can't predict right now, the next big game will be a similarly casual friendly game that offers more gameplay than WoW currently does right now. It has to have the right marketing, a powerful IP and a strong viral pull.
At this point, Warhammer is looking to be the most likely successor. But it has a HUGE uphill battle.
In 2008 wow will be destroyed by wait for it wait for it, NOONE.
seriously what kind of idiot would think there would suddenly be a mass exodus of players from wow, their next expansion is pretty much going to be burning crusade with modal reskins, thats enough to maintain all of their current fans, no game will kill wow anytime soon except for wow itself.
personally wow killed itself slowly for me, the expansion added a few good things like the leveling ( amount of quests etc) itemization improvements and so on, but it killed the rest of the game, and no i don't mean by all my pixels having to get replaced, i raid because its/was fun not for the items.
Making the classes so imbalanced, ruining what was left of world pvp, and making pvp even more of a gear grind and nothing else
"killed " the game, theres plenty of other problems but who cares game wont get fixed.
We finally tried WoW last night you see - and she just emailed me in regards to that experiment...
"Yea, I can relate to the WoW factor for sure….ahem. Yea, not all that exciting is it? It’s seriously just as lame as LOTR in my opinion. WTF, why don’t monsters attack if you’re in their surroundings and slaying their fellow friends?! If you’re friends were being annihilated in front of your eyes wouldn’t the first thing you would do is try to whoop their Azz?
It may be different if we go on a quest together or something….I guess we should at least give it a fair shake, even though the initial try wasn’t all that promising."
in fairness; she's used to DDO and Diablo2/Sacred; but i still thought it was pretty hilarious.
I think honestly, the thing that will hurt WoW would be a Anime MMO.
I disagree. The biggest reason why WoW is so popular is because it drew in the casual gamer. Anime is popular, but not that popular. It's not popular enough or compelling enough to pull casual gamers away from WoW. At least not in the Western market where anime is mostly a children's genre.
More serious gamers are tired of WoW and all the other games with similar gameplay and they are looking for something new. But the number of casual gamers VASTLY outnumbers the serious gamers.
Unless there is a big paradigm shift that we simply can't predict right now, the next big game will be a similarly casual friendly game that offers more gameplay than WoW currently does right now. It has to have the right marketing, a powerful IP and a strong viral pull.
At this point, Warhammer is looking to be the most likely successor. But it has a HUGE uphill battle.
Yes Anime is very childish and it sucks. They even have Hentai porn for 11 year olds.
Age of Conan will be a niche game because of the system requirements being beyond what constitutes the majority of players (tsk tsk, this is why WoW is huge because it runs on anything).
The reality is that WAR is the only upcoming game in 2008 with a realistic chance of taking a chunk out of WoWs numbers. Everyone's talking about it, it LOOKS like WoW to a degree (and if you say it doesn't, keep telling yourself that), and people are expecting it to run on their machines without having to spend two grand for decent performance. Plus it's PvP-oriented.
Me personally, I don't think Warhammer is going to eclipse WoW. I think if WAR is lucky, it might siphon off a million of WoW's subscribers in the first 6 months, primarily being the US and Euro player market (lets not forget a big chunk of that WoW 9-million number is the asian market). But, at the end of the day, and at the end of 2008, WoW will still be in the #1 spot. It will more than likely in the worst-case scenario still have more than 5 million subs, and WAR probably won't eclipse 2 by the end of 2008.
I mean, people have invested a TON of time in WoW, and they know it's safe and polished. They feel comfortable with it, and asking these long-time wow players to abandon something that they know is going to continue to be safe and comfortable and to just pick up shop and go to a new game is a lot. Especially with that whole new expansion coming out.
Plus we know that WAR is PvP-focused, and there are an AWFUL lot of carebears on WoW PvE servers that love to raid and want nothing to do with WAR just because of that.
Comments
Fact: In many magazines it says different about WoW. The game is beginning to decay is population. Several gaming sites tv shows and magazines have thusly stated.
Fact: In 2005 early 2006 Wow was claimed to be the number one mmorpg. What you have stated thusly above is nothing more than outdated news. Everytime I watch g4, I can never seem to even remotely see anything about World of wankoff err..Warcraft being on there.
Opinion: I personally think there should be someone to shock you everytime you have delusions of grandor for enforcing the first stated fact. But thats just opinion.
Don't get me wrong, WoW is a wonderful way to waste time when your boredom has ultimately reached your peak.
Cheers.
Chaos.
Take a deep drink of your demon Lad, tonight we tangle with the fire in the gut.
Wouldn't infamous be more appropriate than popular in that case?
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience"
CS Lewis
If you actually think SWG has more depth than WoW, you're smoking crack. Ever since the CU, SOE has been trying to make SWG more and more like WoW. They have even gone so far as to copy WoW's talent system UI for their own talent system. The only things that make SWG different than WoW is the Star Wars skins, the horrible combat system, poorly designed WoW cloned game mechanics, and a lack of 8,950,000 players.
WoW envy has pretty well put a stake in the heart of SOE management, as far as allowing any sort of creativity. Look at EQ2, the developers have spent the last year and a half making the game more and more like WoW. SOE has become the equivalent of the early 80's Italian zombie film makers to Blizzard's George Romero. They seem to think they can get people playing WoW to play their games by making inferior copies of WoW. It has worked out so well for them that EQ is still their most subscribed to game, and they have a little over half of the total subscribers, company wide, than they did just three years ago.
Wow will stay on top few more years, why?
Coz there is NOT EVEN ONE serious game (read: non alfa, beta, publicbeta, closedbeta etc....) on markt atm, that could endanger blizzards position as MMO no. #1
Progress quest is obviously going to crush the WoW empire
.
wow will eventually slay itself and die a slow agonizing death.
ive never bought into the blizzard hype machine, and if the game really is sooo popular nowadays, why are they offering free months for anyone who can get a friend to return to wow?
when your on top, you dont need to make such an offer.
I would wager there are more asian goldfarmer bot accounts than north american player accounts at this time.
wow was a great game and is still doing well worldwide, but im betting the north american numbers are dwindling, if for no other reason that the game is old and the last expansion was lackluster at best.
just my personal experience, but i know at least 25 people who used to play but have quit. How many other know of a similar theme. Its very common for mmo's.
WOW will die when other developers stop making new stuff for there games. If WOW can't copy anymore ideas they will die real quick.
Hi I'm Ravkeen!
Emilia_Emi Lvl 56 Witch
Now Playing : Black Desert Online
"America is not at war, the US Military is at war, America is at the mall."
Nah. It will live till something better comes out. That's all.
______________________________________
You Are Not Tifa, Cloud, Aeris, Barret, Red XIII, Vincent, Yuffie, Cait Sith, Sephiroth or even Cid.
Not Any Other FF Character.
It might have been said already (not reading the other 100+ replied) but WoW won't be "destroyed" in 2008 or even for years to come (assuming by destroyed you mean that the game will become free, nobody plays it anymore or the game altogether is pulled off the market). Look at Ultima Online, the game still has subscribers (a good number of them) and it is ancient (by MMORPG standards). Given the number of people playing WoW, the game won't be destroyed for a very long time. With saying that, the game will see a drop in membership as people become bored with it or move off to the next big thing.
In 2008 there are a couple of big games (Warhammer Online and Age of Conan IMO) that might take some subscriptions from WoW. However, I seriously doubt (given the number of subscriptions WoW has) that either of those two games will kill WoW or even exceed WoW's subscription base (and that won''t make either of those two games any less successful). There will indeed become a time when WoW is far less than what it once was (probably in another 4 or 5 years when the graphics / gameplay is way inferior than the newer games) but even then the game will still make money (just like Ultima Online has).
Breathing is pretty popular, so it must be bad as well (your "logic"). Make up your own mind about things, don't let mass media influence you one way or another.
Those who dislike things based only on the fact that they are popular look just as shallow and superficial as those who only like them for the same reason.
"Those who dislike things based only on the fact that they are popular are just as shallow and superficial as those who only like them for the same reason."
I don't really understand all the WoW bashing. It is most definitely one of the best MMO's. It's very polished, user friendly, tons of content and customization, huge world with plenty of things to do, etc. I guess this is backlash from being too popular?
There is no way that WoW is going to be taken down from their leadership position anytime soon. It could be years before that happens. The mass is just too big and many of the players are still quite happily raiding and grinding away.
AoC and Warhammer will get a good chunk of subscriptions, but WoW is a total juggernaut. It's basically a cultural phenomenon. You could even call it viral.
Don't forget that Blizzard is by far the best at prolonging the lifespan of their products. Thousand of people are still playing Diablo...that game is ancient.
Eventually technology and MMO evolution will leave WoW behind, but it will be a gradual death.
Thousands of things to do? You mean gazillion quests made on the same "go kill 20 x creatures" principle?
WOW is shallow. It is game for the lazy.
No fate but what we make, so make me a ham sandwich please.
WoW will never be beaten with that time. WoW is getting more popular every day and when wrath of lich king comes out.....well let's just say that WoW will not be destroyed any time soon
I think honestly, the thing that will hurt WoW would be a Anime MMO.
As one of the posters have already replied, Dragon Ball Online might do abit - Heck i was a DBZ fan when i was younger and always wanted a mmo for it, now im older, well i still like it - not as much but enough to go to the game and check it out.
Otherwise if Nintendo try and find there way into the popular PC market range and release a Pokemon MMO i reckon that will go off the charts. Pokemon sells so damn hot still even though its about 10 or so years old.
Anime will make WoW fall due to the younger generation playing WoW also loving anime cartoon shows (assuming - i did and still do anyway). Most people will say anime wont, well things like ragnarok and all the korean games won't, but a trademark Anime like Dragonball, Pokemon, Naruto or something of a like can be turned into a MMO and be acually fairly decent - IF DONE CORRECTLY.
So many good ideas are wasted by dev's trying to clone other games.
In this world, its all about taking risks, if you dont take risks you will keep trying the same thing over and over again and start seeing no improvment. Research is the main thing aswell - see whats hot, get the devs to read game forums, mmo forums none stop (have a small group even) dedicated to it and see what sells.
lol.
.
Its all about marketing and i think if some of the developers pull there finger out of there ^^^ i reckon we got ourselfs an all out champion. Then Blizzard will be forced to bring out Diablo 3 MMO or Starcraft MMO
But all in all, its all personal choice - i love MMOs, i played and tryed practically all of them with the exception of the very earlier mmos like everquest 1 , UO etc - was too young at the time and didnt know squat. Will eventually get around to try them. But i need and i can already tell others aswell have to get a break from "Fantasy" Elves, Dwarfs and all that.
Thats my oppinion anyway, while others may disagree its all good and one view is always different from another so bag ahead and ill be glad to read it
Cheers!
Be realistic. The vast majority of games are exactly the same.
There are only a handful of sandbox-style games that give you the freedom to do more than just quest or mob grind.
At least with WoW, you get a polished experience and a huge user base. The same can't be said for a lot of games out there right now.
I agree with DCTitan. WoW has become 'the game people go back to' and 'first mmo' for too many players for some outside force to destroy it.
I can think of only two things that'd actually cause the sort of massive cliff-like loss people attach to "killer". The first would be if Blizzard itself releases a sequel or new MMORPG, which probably won't be necessary for a couple years. Sequels have done this in other cases. The second would be that when it eventually does start to lose some population (for whatever reasons), Blizzard makes a very fundamental and widely unpopular change.
The problem is, the first MMO is always the best, no matter what happens. It's the first kiss of the online world. Look at the EQ / UO / DAOC veterans, they love their first game (me too ><) and will forever compare newer games with their first one, and so its with the MMO newcomers in wow (should be the first MMO for around 90% of the playerbase). They'll stay there for some time, because the appeal of the first is just stronger than the discernment. Give them some more time.
I disagree. The biggest reason why WoW is so popular is because it drew in the casual gamer. Anime is popular, but not that popular. It's not popular enough or compelling enough to pull casual gamers away from WoW. At least not in the Western market where anime is mostly a children's genre.
More serious gamers are tired of WoW and all the other games with similar gameplay and they are looking for something new. But the number of casual gamers VASTLY outnumbers the serious gamers.
Unless there is a big paradigm shift that we simply can't predict right now, the next big game will be a similarly casual friendly game that offers more gameplay than WoW currently does right now. It has to have the right marketing, a powerful IP and a strong viral pull.
At this point, Warhammer is looking to be the most likely successor. But it has a HUGE uphill battle.
In 2008 wow will be destroyed by wait for it wait for it, NOONE.
seriously what kind of idiot would think there would suddenly be a mass exodus of players from wow, their next expansion is pretty much going to be burning crusade with modal reskins, thats enough to maintain all of their current fans, no game will kill wow anytime soon except for wow itself.
personally wow killed itself slowly for me, the expansion added a few good things like the leveling ( amount of quests etc) itemization improvements and so on, but it killed the rest of the game, and no i don't mean by all my pixels having to get replaced, i raid because its/was fun not for the items.
Making the classes so imbalanced, ruining what was left of world pvp, and making pvp even more of a gear grind and nothing else
"killed " the game, theres plenty of other problems but who cares game wont get fixed.
ROFLMAO. If WoW ever dies (and it's not gonna happen in 2008), it will not be at the hand of any game listed in that poll.
...BY MY GIRLFRIEND!
We finally tried WoW last night you see - and she just emailed me in regards to that experiment...
"Yea, I can relate to the WoW factor for sure….ahem. Yea, not all that exciting is it? It’s seriously just as lame as LOTR in my opinion. WTF, why don’t monsters attack if you’re in their surroundings and slaying their fellow friends?! If you’re friends were being annihilated in front of your eyes wouldn’t the first thing you would do is try to whoop their Azz?
in fairness; she's used to DDO and Diablo2/Sacred; but i still thought it was pretty hilarious.
..an orc peon.
Seriously,why do we have these topics? Does anyone really care?
I disagree. The biggest reason why WoW is so popular is because it drew in the casual gamer. Anime is popular, but not that popular. It's not popular enough or compelling enough to pull casual gamers away from WoW. At least not in the Western market where anime is mostly a children's genre.
More serious gamers are tired of WoW and all the other games with similar gameplay and they are looking for something new. But the number of casual gamers VASTLY outnumbers the serious gamers.
Unless there is a big paradigm shift that we simply can't predict right now, the next big game will be a similarly casual friendly game that offers more gameplay than WoW currently does right now. It has to have the right marketing, a powerful IP and a strong viral pull.
At this point, Warhammer is looking to be the most likely successor. But it has a HUGE uphill battle.
Yes Anime is very childish and it sucks. They even have Hentai porn for 11 year olds.
the only thing that will destroy wow is time it is inevitable. maybe sometimes soon maybe in 5 years who knows and who really cares.
Age of Conan will be a niche game because of the system requirements being beyond what constitutes the majority of players (tsk tsk, this is why WoW is huge because it runs on anything).
The reality is that WAR is the only upcoming game in 2008 with a realistic chance of taking a chunk out of WoWs numbers. Everyone's talking about it, it LOOKS like WoW to a degree (and if you say it doesn't, keep telling yourself that), and people are expecting it to run on their machines without having to spend two grand for decent performance. Plus it's PvP-oriented.
Me personally, I don't think Warhammer is going to eclipse WoW. I think if WAR is lucky, it might siphon off a million of WoW's subscribers in the first 6 months, primarily being the US and Euro player market (lets not forget a big chunk of that WoW 9-million number is the asian market). But, at the end of the day, and at the end of 2008, WoW will still be in the #1 spot. It will more than likely in the worst-case scenario still have more than 5 million subs, and WAR probably won't eclipse 2 by the end of 2008.
I mean, people have invested a TON of time in WoW, and they know it's safe and polished. They feel comfortable with it, and asking these long-time wow players to abandon something that they know is going to continue to be safe and comfortable and to just pick up shop and go to a new game is a lot. Especially with that whole new expansion coming out.
Plus we know that WAR is PvP-focused, and there are an AWFUL lot of carebears on WoW PvE servers that love to raid and want nothing to do with WAR just because of that.