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ESO to grab market majority?

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  • Alber_gamerAlber_gamer RomePosts: 557Member Uncommon
    I foresee 85 million subs within the first year, and then decay to 52 million subs over the course of the ten next years.

    My opinion is my own. I respect all other opinions and views equally, but keep in mind that my opinion will always be the best for me. That's why it's my opinion.

  • ViadricViadric Ripley, OHPosts: 151Member
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Originally posted by Keylogger_007
    WOW has been hemorrhaging rather intensely since Activision stepped in. I would like to see ESO end up with that bit of the MMO playerbase, or at least a stable portion of it.

    Keep dreaming. Once WOD is out.. it is going to get a lot of player base back even those who left for ESO. This has been going on for last 8 years and ESO won't even put a dent in WOW.

    I wish people would just stop beating this dead horse.

    I agree WOW is not going to be touched until the game itself dies down or discontinues. I'm thinking this game will be the king of mmo's for still a long time. It has the highest sub base since 2004. Right now it has 8 million players strong.

  • KyleranKyleran Tampa, FLPosts: 20,008Member Uncommon

    When it reaches WOW's sub numbers and holds them for as long then I'll consider ESO a major success, until then it's all just a big pile of fail. image

    But I'm enjoying my time there currently, pretty fun MMO, even it is a "theme-park"

    I actually like it much better than the single player games, because, well, there's other people around. 

    Sure wish I could interact with them a bit more than I do.

     

     

    In my day MMORPG's were so hard we fought our way through dungeons in the snow, uphill both ways.
    "I don't have one life, I have many lives" - Grunty
    Still currently "subscribed" to EVE, and only EVE!!!
    "This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon

  • zimboy69zimboy69 chicargo, FLPosts: 378Member Uncommon

    i don't know much about  ESO  

    but no one i know is talking about it 

    none of my friends have bought it  

    not a mention  of what  do you think its like  or are you going to play it , its as if it  just dose not exist

    ive even seen the price as low at £25 and that was  release week

    the only place i see it talked about is in  mmorpg.com

    at this time  i have a feeling its  not selling well

    but time will tell

    image

  • GardavsshadeGardavsshade Cedar Springs, MIPosts: 766Member Uncommon

    Do I care if TESO grab's the MMO market majority?

    No. and Yes.

    No... I do not base my decision on what MMO I play on how many others flock to it, so if TESO grabs majority it won't encourage me to play it or not.

    Yes... because I feel too much popularity ruins good MMOs.

    I did not care that WoW grabbed the millions it did, in fact in my opinion ANY MMO that grabs that many subs isn't necessarily good or fun, it's nothing more than the "IN" thing, the new hotness, the latest fad. Popularity of a MMO on that scale just means that along with MMO Players that really care about their game there will be a load of wannabe's following the trends just because they have to, or more accurately they fell they have to. Play WoW now and tell me most of the Players that remain there really give a rat's petunia about the community or the future of WoW... they are there riding the ride til the wave crashes and then they will hop on the new wave. MMO Players, diehard ones, will commit to a MMO for years and stay until the servers melt.

    I would rather play a MMO with other Players that are there because the game is good, because we MMO Players feel it has quality and merit, because it gives us the enjoyment we crave, because we value the community and want to help become all it can be in a MMO. These goals right here are too often lost in the roar of the bison herd that moves with the trends.

    If TESO grabs the market majority, then I definitely will never play it. Too many patties will be left on the ground.

  • Emmer4Emmer4 HerefordPosts: 29Member
    Originally posted by Iceman8235
    OP, you're pretty retarded.  ESO has done nothing to show that it's successful, your idea of success is just horribly off.  To you and a lot of the other fanbois if the server is open (most of the time) and there's people on it, that means the game launch was a success.  A normal person is gonna need a little bit more than that.  This game brought absolutely nothing new to the table and there's a pretty consistent 1 secondish lag in PvP and PvP is the only thing that will keep this game from going F2P within a year and that's only if they fix the issues.  I wouldn't say the game is a failure yet, but it's surely not a success either, it's just too early to tell either way.  What you think is success is just your optimism, but that's a personal thing and has nothing to do with the actual game.

    This cannot be right. A 1 second lag in PvP is a huge delay and Matt Firor confirmed in a pre launch interview that ESO would be lag free!?!

  • zimboy69zimboy69 chicargo, FLPosts: 378Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Viadric
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Originally posted by Keylogger_007
    WOW has been hemorrhaging rather intensely since Activision stepped in. I would like to see ESO end up with that bit of the MMO playerbase, or at least a stable portion of it.

    Keep dreaming. Once WOD is out.. it is going to get a lot of player base back even those who left for ESO. This has been going on for last 8 years and ESO won't even put a dent in WOW.

    I wish people would just stop beating this dead horse.

    I agree WOW is not going to be touched until the game itself dies down or discontinues. I'm thinking this game will be the king of mmo's for still a long time. It has the highest sub base since 2004. Right now it has 8 million players strong.

    ive not played wow  since burning crusade  and gave it a try about a year ago   

    I couldn't even get out of the noob area  its so  bad

    i used to think wow controls where good  but i was shocked the felt so  clunky

    add to that the quest hubs and  graphics

    i have no idea what  people see in the game  there are much better games on the market

     

    image

  • RusqueRusque Las Vegas, NVPosts: 2,229Member Uncommon

    As much as I love ESO, I think it's too polarizing of a game to have mass appeal.

    It's very much an RPG'ers MMO and most of the MMO market is split between very "gamey" PvE themeparking like WoW/GW2 and PvP in its various forms (no I don't think Cyrodiil is going to be what the OWPvPers or competitive e-sport PvPers want).

    The last RPG heavy MMO was TSW which falls into the same scenario of not pleasing the two major groups.

    I struggle to label ESO as a themepark despite my brain knowing that it is, but when you play it, it just doesn't feel like it. It really does feel like a proper Elder Scrolls RPG adventure. Normally a themepark says here's a hub, you can't go on until you've finished this area, but in ESO you enter a zone and it says, welp . . . here's the zone go nuts. And because the zone is so big, it's like playing an entire open world RPG.

    It'll never satisfy the people who want to grind raid bosses for tier 87 set pieces, I think those people are best served by playing WoW (and some of them might have reason to go to Wildstar) and RvR PvP just doesn't do it for the two PvP groups mentioned earlier. e-sporters want BG's and arenas with rankings. OWPvPers want to run around ganking each other.

    Market majority for ESO? Not a chance. One of the best mmoRPG's ever created in my opinion? Yes, a million times yes.

  • ViadricViadric Ripley, OHPosts: 151Member
    Originally posted by zimboy69
    Originally posted by Viadric
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Originally posted by Keylogger_007
    WOW has been hemorrhaging rather intensely since Activision stepped in. I would like to see ESO end up with that bit of the MMO playerbase, or at least a stable portion of it.

    Keep dreaming. Once WOD is out.. it is going to get a lot of player base back even those who left for ESO. This has been going on for last 8 years and ESO won't even put a dent in WOW.

    I wish people would just stop beating this dead horse.

    I agree WOW is not going to be touched until the game itself dies down or discontinues. I'm thinking this game will be the king of mmo's for still a long time. It has the highest sub base since 2004. Right now it has 8 million players strong.

    ive not played wow  since burning crusade  and gave it a try about a year ago   

    I couldn't even get out of the noob area  its so  bad

    i used to think wow controls where good  but i was shocked the felt so  clunky

    add to that the quest hubs and  graphics

    i have no idea what  people see in the game  there are much better games on the market

     

    Please name a game that has 10 years worth content and a player base of atleast 5 million. Yeah you can't..

  • kruluxkrulux Atlanta - South, GAPosts: 229Member

    I'd don't really care if the game succeeds or not.  I'm enjoying it for now.. but if I quit playing in a couple of months, I won't shed any tears for it.  I've become as jaded as many of you seem by the content of your posts.  It may be time to start looking for new hobbies.

    It does get old reading post after post of the general negativity people spout out for every release... I'm sure if any one of us could develop or had the chance for our perfect game to be made, exactly as we liked it, 90% of the "gamers" would hate it.  It's far too easy to trash something in a few posts, than spend years building it.

  • JacobinJacobin Toronto, ONPosts: 697Member Uncommon

    In a month or 2 we will begin to see people screaming about no endgame and a large potion of the MMO crowd will move on.

    This game is aimed at casual questers - and so far they are the only people who seem to enjoy it.

  • st3v3b0st3v3b0 Gainesville, FLPosts: 147Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by simon155

    I know there are a number of posters on here who thought ESO would be a flop, and have already been proven wrong. 

    Nothing has been "proven" considering the games subscription has not even kicked in.  To further doubt your claim of "proven" game companies that are successful on release typically tout their box sales numbers which ESO has not.  There will be a drop by the end of the 30-days free perhaps even as large as 50%, but I think the larger drops will come in the proceeding months.

  • Yoda_CloneYoda_Clone Harker Heights, TXPosts: 219Member

    When a developer uses large numbers of shills in gaming forums within the last couple of weeks before release; when a developer has a last second open Beta following a prior somewhat disastrous open Beta (because of the horrible phasing bugs, disconnects, and other issues); it's usually a sign of desperation, not an expectation of grabbing a large market share.

    It's a sign that the number of pre-orders were well below expectations.

    It's a sign that there were a large number of cancellations of pre-orders (given the very bad vibes resulting from Beta tester comments and all the bugs from the second-to-last open Beta).

    The question isn't how much market share it will grab; the question is how soon it will go to F2P.

    Which is unfortunate; I had high hopes for this game.

  • paul43paul43 OsloPosts: 120Member Uncommon
    TBH I don't think the game has sold all that well, looking at X-fire numbers it look much more like TSW than SWTOR. Earlier today there was a period where I couldn't find a single player in the group finder for the 28-30 dungeons. So that dosen't add up well, considering there should be tens of thousands of players on the megaserver if it has sold close to 1m.
  • Colt47Colt47 Naperville, ILPosts: 310Member Uncommon

    [mod edit]

    Still not as bad as Two Worlds.  Nothing except Sonic 2006 was as bad as that game.  

    Well, next year will be the big year for kickstarter RPGs.  We got Project Eternity, Shroud of the Avatar, Everquest Next, and Tides of Numenera coming, along with the space sim Star Citizen.

  • NagilumSadowNagilumSadow Atlanta, GAPosts: 299Member
    Originally posted by Aroukos
    Originally posted by BeansnBread
    Originally posted by Vannor
    Originally posted by Elbone
    If a game with Counter-strike level of animation makes it to the top, the MMO industry is really hitting a new low.

    Wait.. what? Are you suggesting that WoW has better animations?... because that's currently at the top.

    WoW has excellent animation.

     

    Agree

    WoW animations are better by a mile, at least.

     

    Personally I don't think a silly cartoon like WoW is in the running..

     How does one compare a silly cartoon with a stolen mythos like WoW to the Elder scrolls series and its online culmination?

  • KnotwoodKnotwood Missoula, MTPosts: 1,103Member
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    We already had several topics on this where people were claiming 10 million to 20 million subs. Do we really need another one of these? image

    10 million by the end of the year...   Lets get the facts straight,  haha. 

     

    To OP,  yes this game will be as big as WoW was,  having 10 million subs by the end of the year.   

     

    2-3 million subs from PC  Launch is what it is looking like.   With more to come from other games.

    3-5 million subs from consoles when they launch.  with a lot more to come afterwards.

    By the end of the year should be looking at 10 million subs.

     

    Starting will be around 5 million-8 million players between consoles and PC.  Then it will get up to 10 million by end of the year, if Zenimax stays true to its  content release schedule.

     

    Keep in mind that on both PC and Console you have 20 million Skyrim buyers over the last three years,  which atleast 4 million of them will buy defacto given the 4 million morrowind and oblivion solid base.   the other 16 million will have started playing elder scrolls games with Skyrim,  so the more ES mimics skyrim the more of those other Skyrim buyers will be drawn to this MMORPG.  

     

  • SephirosoSephiroso Marietta, GAPosts: 1,160Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by NagilumSadow
    Originally posted by Aroukos
    Originally posted by BeansnBread
    Originally posted by Vannor
    Originally posted by Elbone
    If a game with Counter-strike level of animation makes it to the top, the MMO industry is really hitting a new low.

    Wait.. what? Are you suggesting that WoW has better animations?... because that's currently at the top.

    WoW has excellent animation.

     

    Agree

    WoW animations are better by a mile, at least.

     

    Personally I don't think a silly cartoon like WoW is in the running..

     How does one compare a silly cartoon with a stolen mythos like WoW to the Elder scrolls series and its online culmination?

    I think you need to learn the difference between graphics style and animation.

    image
    Be the Ultimate Ninja! Play Billy Vs. SNAKEMAN today!

  • ZalmonZalmon Bloomington, INPosts: 319Member
    Originally posted by Knotwood
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    We already had several topics on this where people were claiming 10 million to 20 million subs. Do we really need another one of these? image

    10 million by the end of the year...   Lets get the facts straight,  haha. 

     

    To OP,  yes this game will be as big as WoW was,  having 10 million subs by the end of the year.   

     

    2-3 million subs from PC  Launch is what it is looking like.   With more to come from other games.

    3-5 million subs from consoles when they launch.  with a lot more to come afterwards.

    By the end of the year should be looking at 10 million subs.

     

    Starting will be around 5 million-8 million players between consoles and PC.  Then it will get up to 10 million by end of the year, if Zenimax stays true to its  content release schedule.

     

    Keep in mind that on both PC and Console you have 20 million Skyrim buyers over the last three years,  which atleast 4 million of them will buy defacto given the 4 million morrowind and oblivion solid base.   the other 16 million will have started playing elder scrolls games with Skyrim,  so the more ES mimics skyrim the more of those other Skyrim buyers will be drawn to this MMORPG.  

     

    Ughhh not this again!!!!

    image

  • KnotwoodKnotwood Missoula, MTPosts: 1,103Member
    Originally posted by Zalmon

    Ughhh not this again!!!!

    image

    Get used to it, once the numbers start getting released by Zenimax, you will see much much more of these posts of millions of subs.   OP is just one of the many who are starting to realize how big this game is actually going to get.

  • SephirosoSephiroso Marietta, GAPosts: 1,160Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Knotwood
    Originally posted by Zalmon

    Ughhh not this again!!!!

    image

    Get used to it, once the numbers start getting released by Zenimax, you will see much much more of these posts of millions of subs.   OP is just one of the many who are starting to realize how big this game is actually going to get.

    Knotwood for your sake i hope the things you say is just for the shits and giggles you get behind the screen. I really do lol.

    image
    Be the Ultimate Ninja! Play Billy Vs. SNAKEMAN today!

  • BigdaddyxBigdaddyx California, WAPosts: 1,986Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Knotwood

     

    Get used to it, once the numbers start getting released by Zenimax, you will see much much more of these posts of millions of subs.   OP is just one of the many who are starting to realize how big this game is actually going to get.

    Yeah and pigs will fly too that day i guess?

    Really don't want to get into this argument again. I had my fun last time in that absurd topic of yours.

  • CreatorzimCreatorzim Perris, CAPosts: 273Member
    Originally posted by Knotwood
    Originally posted by Zalmon

    Ughhh not this again!!!!

    image

    Get used to it, once the numbers start getting released by Zenimax, you will see much much more of these posts of millions of subs.   OP is just one of the many who are starting to realize how big this game is actually going to get.

     

    So you think half the people that signed up for beta will actually buy the game? Most people who like TES do not like MMOs. They will not set foot in this game. Odds are this game with sell 1 million copies and subs around 400k for the first year.

    image

  • CelciusCelcius Posts: 1,001Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by simon155

    What do you think? See who makes the most accurate prediction lol.

    I know there are a number of posters on here who thought ESO would be a flop, and have already been proven wrong. I read the bad reviews too, but checked it out myself, and boy were they wrong lol.

    /snip

    Proven wrong not even a week after release? Give it time. In order for an MMO to flop you need a good 3-6 months. Come back to us and see how much praise it has then. 

    I have seen nothing but indications of a pretty rocky start with some glaring issues that have been around for months in beta remaining as well as some issues with patching and the billing system. Wait until more people hit end game in a month or two for the numbers to start to decline. (Also it is a pretty good indicator that the game's launch figures aren't very high otherwise Bethesda would be shouting those numbers from the roof tops by now.) 

  • BigdaddyxBigdaddyx California, WAPosts: 1,986Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Creatorzim
    Originally posted by Knotwood
    Originally posted by Zalmon

    Ughhh not this again!!!!

    image

    Get used to it, once the numbers start getting released by Zenimax, you will see much much more of these posts of millions of subs.   OP is just one of the many who are starting to realize how big this game is actually going to get.

     

    So you think half the people that signed up for beta will actually buy the game? Most people who like TES do not like MMOs. They will not set foot in this game. Odds are this game with sell 1 million copies and subs around 400k for the first year.

    On top of that consoles players hate paying double, for online access to console as well as a monthly sub. Atleast that is what have been my experince.

    A MMO on console will never dominate anything when they have so much better and vast amount single player games to choose from. Its not like PC where our choice for single player titles is shrinking every year.

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