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retention predictions

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  • cheyanecheyane Rome Posts: 3,002Member Uncommon

    Look I actually play SWTOR last night there were 60 people on Taris. People were grouping to do Heroics and chat was hopping. I cannot understand this constant claim that SWTOR is failing when it is releasing new content and they seem to be making money. If they were not they would not be doing any of the above. The game would be shut down if it was a failure.

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  • M0rbidM0rbid PendletonPosts: 60Member
    Originally posted by DEAD.line
    Originally posted by cheyane

    SWTOR is far from struggling you should check out the in game population before you spout rubbish.

    While true, TOR was colossal failure in it's first year, probably not even being able to recover the incial investment from the box sales.

    It's making alot of money now, but let's not kid ourselves. Alot of that is because of the Star Wars name attached to it. If you took the same exact game without that name and Bioware's, and replaced it with a different IP like Wildstar, The Repopulation or Anarchy Online, it would lose alot of players, easily.

    How many? I don't know. But a considerable amount IMO.

     

    Can you imagine the truck load of fail that ESO would be without the Elder Scrolls name?

     

    The sales numbers are looking bad enough WITH the Elder Scrolls name.....

     

    Just goes to show if you package up a ho-hum mediocre, on rails themepark mmorpg even the  industries biggest IPs do  not guarantee success....

  • DistopiaDistopia Baltimore, MDPosts: 16,915Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by M0rbid

     

    Can you imagine the truck load of fail that ESO would be without the Elder Scrolls name?

     

    The sales numbers are looking bad enough WITH the Elder Scrolls name.....

     

    Just goes to show if you package up a ho-hum mediocre, on rails themepark mmorpg even the  industries biggest IPs do  not guarantee success....

    Not that I believe you have any real interest in this subject, yet isn't it a bit early to say they'll have no success with this title?

    For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson

    It is a sign of a defeated man, to attack at ones character in the face of logic and reason- Me

  • cheyanecheyane Rome Posts: 3,002Member Uncommon

    That 157 k number has got to be a mistake and as someone said no digital sales. It absolutely cannot be that low that is unfathomable.

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  • PoisondwarfPoisondwarf BirminghamPosts: 32Member

    The game has sold about 2 million and will retain 60% players after the first month giving a base of 1.2 million which will slowly drop by 5%ish every month until it levels off at around 1 million subs.

    I think that the OP and many others who have posted are probably WS fanboys worried that WS will flop, which it will. My Guild originally had high hopes for WS but after playing the BETA and then playing ESO there is now only a hand full that still want to play WS and at least 90% have decided ESO is the next big MMO.

     

    Long live ESO. lol

  • DEAD.lineDEAD.line LisbonPosts: 424Member
    Originally posted by Distopia
     

    The problem with this line of thinking is, Star Wars didn't help it from failing before, why would it now?

    Because of retention. 

    SW helps sells as many as it did. If the IP was WS, it would have sold less, most likely

    However, the game's quality is not enough to keep players subbed, so it loses them. Here, the IP simply wasn't enough, being it SW, WS, whatever.

    It doesn't "fail" in the sense it shuts down, but loses at ton of money. Didn't they have over 100 servers at launch, btw?

    It goes F2P and the IP helps draw players back. I mean, GW2 also sold alot because it's B2P. Despite the game's quality and positive impressions. Do you think they would've sold 3.5 million if it was P2P? No. That's not the only reason, of course, but on to factor in.

    So, IP, business model, game content and quality, all of that plays a role int he game's future, but, as i said, the IP was a huge boost to help draw players in and keep them in.

    As for ESO, same thing. It was announced during Skyrim's explosive rise. The IP helped it gain interest. That doesn't mean the game's bad. It simply means alot of people bought it and will keep playing it because  of the name alone, P2P or F2P.

    EDIT: Oh, and VGChartz probably doesn't matter. GW2 sold more than TOR, but only had 250k.

  • M0rbidM0rbid PendletonPosts: 60Member
    Originally posted by DEAD.line
    Originally posted by Distopia
     

    The problem with this line of thinking is, Star Wars didn't help it from failing before, why would it now?

    Because of retention. 

    SW helps sells as many as it did. If the IP was WS, it would have sold less, most likely

    However, the game's quality is not enough to keep players subbed, so it loses them. Here, the IP simply wasn't enough, being it SW, WS, whatever.

    It doesn't "fail" in the sense it shuts down, but loses at ton of money. Didn't they have over 100 servers at launch, btw?

    It goes F2P and the IP helps draw players back. I mean, GW2 also sold alot because it's B2P. Despite the game's quality and positive impressions. Do you think they would've sold 3.5 million if it was P2P? No. That's not the only reason, of course, but on to factor in.

    So, IP, business model, game content and quality, all of that plays a role int he game's future, but, as i said, the IP was a huge boost to help draw players in and keep them in.

    As for ESO, same thing. It was announced during Skyrim's explosive rise. The IP helped it gain interest. That doesn't mean the game's bad. It simply means alot of people bought it and will keep playing it because  of the name alot, P2P or F2P.

    EDIT: Oh, and VGChartz probably doesn't matter. GW2 sold more than TOR, but only had 250k.

    Yeah but still, 157K physical sales for all of North America?

     

    That does not bode well does it? If the multiple millions of sales that posters have been predicting are to materialise, they must be counting on the digital pre orders.....that must be a HUGE number of digital pre orders.

     

    I am just wondering why we have not heard a thing about such a huge amount of pre orders in the industry press.

     

    My concern would be 157k phyiscal pre orders, maybe multiply that by 2 to factor in the digital pre orders.  The multiply that by 2 for an approx factor on the same basis for EU sales.

     

    157k x 2 = 314k

     

    314k x 2 = 628k worlwide sales.

     

    Then Zeni/Beth can report it as approaching 1,000,000 "accounts" or however they spin it in the earnings call....

  • cheyanecheyane Rome Posts: 3,002Member Uncommon

    But even Titanfall which is very popular is not selling that much I think all this indicates is that digital sales is may be now 90% of total sales and physical is down a lot. No way can those figures represent that projected total sales.

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  • AbardomasAbardomas New York, NYPosts: 159Member

    I'm sticking with my original prediction of at least 10 million active players by Jan. 1st 2015.

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  • AzzrasAzzras Loganville, GAPosts: 389Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by alexhpy98721
    Originally posted by Soki123
    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    im a say about 12million boxes sold for PC.  so 12% if 12m ..calculator.. 1.4mil retained

    12 mil on pc, lol, that's funny.

    If they had a good number you would have seen an announcement....

    So far they say more Imperial Editions were sold compared to normal ones, if that is true my guess is not that many people bought the game besides the TES fans who got the Imperial Edition.

    But we`ll wait and see.... either way it will be a fun game for a month, i will only decide to buy more time if they can actually add content fast like the promised otherwise i`ll just get 1 more month in like 6 months and so on...  so its up to them.

     

    EDIT: I doubt they went over 2-2.5 mil at best... if they got more its really good news.

    I thought they were a private company.  If they are private, they are not obligated to report numbers to share holders.

    I never understood people's fascination with this anyway. 

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  • OtakunOtakun New Providence, PAPosts: 864Member
    Originally posted by Azzras
    Originally posted by alexhpy98721
    Originally posted by Soki123
    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    im a say about 12million boxes sold for PC.  so 12% if 12m ..calculator.. 1.4mil retained

    12 mil on pc, lol, that's funny.

    If they had a good number you would have seen an announcement....

    So far they say more Imperial Editions were sold compared to normal ones, if that is true my guess is not that many people bought the game besides the TES fans who got the Imperial Edition.

    But we`ll wait and see.... either way it will be a fun game for a month, i will only decide to buy more time if they can actually add content fast like the promised otherwise i`ll just get 1 more month in like 6 months and so on...  so its up to them.

     

    EDIT: I doubt they went over 2-2.5 mil at best... if they got more its really good news.

    I thought they were a private company.  If they are private, they are not obligated to report numbers to share holders.

    I never understood people's fascination with this anyway. 

    Because who wants to play a massively multiplayer game that hardly anyone owns? People are drawn to popularity and early signs of such will draw in people who were on the fence. The fact they aren't saying anything means the numbers are low or they are holding off for the official release date to announce it. 

  • Soki123Soki123 Kelowna, BCPosts: 1,482Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Abardomas

    I'm sticking with my original prediction of at least 10 million active players by Jan. 1st 2015.

    This is even funnier then 12 mil copies sold.

  • AzzrasAzzras Loganville, GAPosts: 389Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Otakun
    Originally posted by Azzras
    Originally posted by alexhpy98721
    Originally posted by Soki123
    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    im a say about 12million boxes sold for PC.  so 12% if 12m ..calculator.. 1.4mil retained

    12 mil on pc, lol, that's funny.

    If they had a good number you would have seen an announcement....

    So far they say more Imperial Editions were sold compared to normal ones, if that is true my guess is not that many people bought the game besides the TES fans who got the Imperial Edition.

    But we`ll wait and see.... either way it will be a fun game for a month, i will only decide to buy more time if they can actually add content fast like the promised otherwise i`ll just get 1 more month in like 6 months and so on...  so its up to them.

     

    EDIT: I doubt they went over 2-2.5 mil at best... if they got more its really good news.

    I thought they were a private company.  If they are private, they are not obligated to report numbers to share holders.

    I never understood people's fascination with this anyway. 

    Because who wants to play a massively multiplayer game that hardly anyone owns? People are drawn to popularity and early signs of such will draw in people who were on the fence. The fact they aren't saying anything means the numbers are low or they are holding off for the official release date to announce it. 

    To do this you have to follow a companies financial reports?

    Personally, I just play the game till it's not fun anymore.  I don't need a CEO to justify my game time.

    If the MMO has hardly any players in it, you can't figure that out without someone putting numbers in your face? 

    Nope, still don't understand the fascination and your reasoning is flawed.

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  • OtakunOtakun New Providence, PAPosts: 864Member
    Originally posted by Azzras
    Originally posted by Otakun
    Originally posted by Azzras
    Originally posted by alexhpy98721
    Originally posted by Soki123
    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    im a say about 12million boxes sold for PC.  so 12% if 12m ..calculator.. 1.4mil retained

    12 mil on pc, lol, that's funny.

    If they had a good number you would have seen an announcement....

    So far they say more Imperial Editions were sold compared to normal ones, if that is true my guess is not that many people bought the game besides the TES fans who got the Imperial Edition.

    But we`ll wait and see.... either way it will be a fun game for a month, i will only decide to buy more time if they can actually add content fast like the promised otherwise i`ll just get 1 more month in like 6 months and so on...  so its up to them.

     

    EDIT: I doubt they went over 2-2.5 mil at best... if they got more its really good news.

    I thought they were a private company.  If they are private, they are not obligated to report numbers to share holders.

    I never understood people's fascination with this anyway. 

    Because who wants to play a massively multiplayer game that hardly anyone owns? People are drawn to popularity and early signs of such will draw in people who were on the fence. The fact they aren't saying anything means the numbers are low or they are holding off for the official release date to announce it. 

    To do this you have to follow a companies financial reports?

    Personally, I just play the game till it's not fun anymore.  I don't need a CEO to justify my game time.

    If the MMO has hardly any players in it, you can't figure that out without someone putting numbers in your face? 

    Nope, still don't understand the fascination and your reasoning is flawed.

    Uhh .. yeah, it's called the real world, sir. That's why we have the stock market and investors that need to be proven how well a game is doing with numbers. Having blind faith in a company or a product is just asking to get screwed over by companies like EA. Maybe you need to step outside of your parents house and see how the world works. 

  • Lazarus71Lazarus71 Celina, OHPosts: 1,025Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Fendel84M
    Finally! The real end game can start. Forget this questing and exploration crap. We all know predicting subscription numbers and quoting financial reports are what MMOs are really all about.

    Sadly on this site that is exactly what they are all about. Why do I picture many posters in this thread grinning while typing what they think will happen with the game. This site overall makes me sad anymore.

    No signature, I don't have a pen

  • SephrosSephros Somewhere, CAPosts: 396Member Uncommon
    50 billionty

    Error: No Keyboard Detected!
    Press F1 to continue......

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer ChairPosts: 5,596Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by cheyane

    Look I actually play SWTOR last night there were 60 people on Taris. People were grouping to do Heroics and chat was hopping. I cannot understand this constant claim that SWTOR is failing when it is releasing new content and they seem to be making money. If they were not they would not be doing any of the above. The game would be shut down if it was a failure.

    I'll cut and paste a post I made in the recent column on SWTOR:

    http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/6256635#6256635

    "The article is talking about replay-ability for the game. For, as a new player to the game, I can't talk about my own replay-ability yet. But I can talk about my observations.

    This has simply NOT been the case with SWTOR. OK, the game is F2P. I would expect a boosted starter zone population. But it hasn't stopped. So far having tried 2 different servers so far I have characters into the upper 20s so I am mid level now. At no time in my game have I been in an empty zone. It's been all levels, all zones, everywhere I go, the game is packed with Subscribers, F2Pers, New players and Vet alts. I don't think it has taken more than a few minutes of zone channel broadcasting LFG for group quests to get in one. Flash Points are quick to assemble teams. Constantly waiting for mob/quest item re-spawns because someone beat me to it. SWTOR is exactly what I would expect an MMO to be. All zones are full of players playing at all ranges and levels. Other games aren't like this. SWTOR must be doing something right."

  • SatsunoryuSatsunoryu Mishawaka, INPosts: 285Member
    Without trying to guess at specific #'s, it's hard for me to imagine the player retention will be that great for a sub.  I think the questing, the 'journey' is worth the price of admission, but beyond that, end-game and play mechanics are too close to GW2 to fathom they could get away with a sub anymore than GW2 could in the long run.
  • ArndushArndush Dallas, TXPosts: 303Member

    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi
     

    From what I seen so far, about 12% of total box sales will renew the subscription for the PC market.

     

    THey are launching on consoles so that may be a  bigger pay out,

     

    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi

    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    im a say about 12million boxes sold for PC.  so 12% if 12m ..calculator.. 1.4mil retained

    Well, as long as the OP is pulling stats out of his arse, I'll play along. I think 4,326,987 units have sold and They will retain 31.415926535% for a total of 1,359,363 subscriptions. :)

     

  • RusqueRusque Las Vegas, NVPosts: 2,229Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Lazarus71
    Originally posted by Fendel84M
    Finally! The real end game can start. Forget this questing and exploration crap. We all know predicting subscription numbers and quoting financial reports are what MMOs are really all about.

    Sadly on this site that is exactly what they are all about. Why do I picture many posters in this thread grinning while typing what they think will happen with the game. This site overall makes me sad anymore.

    It's not just the desire to see games crash and burn, but the complete contradictory nature of the behavior.

    ITT you see people saying how it has low numbers (which we don't have actual proof of) and therefore sucks and will fail. But you mention WoW has 7 million players and immediately you get , "Well McDonald's is popular but it's not a good restaurant!."

    So which is it? Is WoW the best game out there or are the numbers irrelevant?

    The real answer is, "whatever suits my trolling needs at the time is relevant because I'm just here to argue (badly) on the internet."

  • DistopiaDistopia Baltimore, MDPosts: 16,915Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Rusque
    Originally posted by Lazarus71
    Originally posted by Fendel84M
    Finally! The real end game can start. Forget this questing and exploration crap. We all know predicting subscription numbers and quoting financial reports are what MMOs are really all about.

    Sadly on this site that is exactly what they are all about. Why do I picture many posters in this thread grinning while typing what they think will happen with the game. This site overall makes me sad anymore.

    It's not just the desire to see games crash and burn, but the complete contradictory nature of the behavior.

    ITT you see people saying how it has low numbers (which we don't have actual proof of) and therefore sucks and will fail. But you mention WoW has 7 million players and immediately you get , "Well McDonald's is popular but it's not a good restaurant!."

    So which is it? Is WoW the best game out there or are the numbers irrelevant?

    The real answer is, "whatever suits my trolling needs at the time is relevant because I'm just here to argue (badly) on the internet."

    Yep

    For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson

    It is a sign of a defeated man, to attack at ones character in the face of logic and reason- Me

  • st3v3b0st3v3b0 Gainesville, FLPosts: 147Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi
     a say about 12million boxes sold for PC.  so 12% if 12m ..calculator.. 1.4mil retained

    BAHAHAHAHAAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    HAHAHAHA

    /cough

    /ahem

    Riiiiiiight

  • MargraveMargrave Knoxville, TNPosts: 634Member Uncommon
    I just can't help but think if FFXIV can retain enough playerbase to stay sub based I don't see why this won't.
  • BeansnBreadBeansnBread PshPosts: 5,503Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Margrave
    I just can't help but think if FFXIV can retain enough playerbase to stay sub based I don't see why this won't.

    When FFXIV stays sub based for a year without announcing a cash shop, then you can use this as an example. Until then, it's still up in the air about whether or not they will stay sub based.

  • M0rbidM0rbid PendletonPosts: 60Member
    Originally posted by Rusque
    Originally posted by Lazarus71
    Originally posted by Fendel84M
    Finally! The real end game can start. Forget this questing and exploration crap. We all know predicting subscription numbers and quoting financial reports are what MMOs are really all about.

    Sadly on this site that is exactly what they are all about. Why do I picture many posters in this thread grinning while typing what they think will happen with the game. This site overall makes me sad anymore.

    It's not just the desire to see games crash and burn, but the complete contradictory nature of the behavior.

    ITT you see people saying how it has low numbers (which we don't have actual proof of) and therefore sucks and will fail. But you mention WoW has 7 million players and immediately you get , "Well McDonald's is popular but it's not a good restaurant!."

    So which is it? Is WoW the best game out there or are the numbers irrelevant?

    The real answer is, "whatever suits my trolling needs at the time is relevant because I'm just here to argue (badly) on the internet."

    "The real answer is, "whatever suits my trolling needs at the time is relevant because I'm just here to argue (badly) on the internet."

     

    To be fair...both those that are labelled "haters" and those that are labelled "fanboys" are equally guilty of this....

     

    Often times even the most valid of complaints, made by posters who genuinely want to see the game suceed are ripped apart and derided by the "apologists" or the "White Knights" or whatever they are called this week :)

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