it makes you wonder why have a sub because they lose box sales by having a sub
What? You do realize 99% p2p games also sale boxes right? I mean...how you don't know this is astounding actually.
I think he means that if it wasn't the sub fee, then the box sales would be much higher. That's true, but it depends if in the long term the game goes well as sub based or not.
Originally posted by Teala Going to say, 1.5 to 2 million sales across all platforms. With a 5% to 10% retention rate the first 6 months. Scaling down to a 3% to 5% retention rate after that. From then on it'll just be a revolving door of players, and never retaining more than 5%. Game will be free to play in 1 year to 1.5 years.
I doubt whether they will make those kinds of sales figures, even cross platform,
Really?
You don't think they can sell 1.5 millions copies cross platform when Skyrim sold over 20 million copies?
That's only 15% of the people that bought Skyrim.
really, because there aren't enough people out there with the next gen consoles to generate those kinds of figures, if the game was released on the Xbox 360 and the PS3 that would change things drastically, which is also btw, why Microsoft also released Titanfail on the Xbox360, they needed the player numbers and there just wasn't enough XB1's out there to do it. there are at best out there, around 9 million next gen consoles, around 6 million of which are PS4's not every single one is going to want to guy the game, even if it came with a brand new sparkly pony with every sale. Drawing comparisons with a single player game like Skyrim is also very misleading, for one thing, you don't have to pay a sub to play it, its also Zenimax's first game and its also a game that has been dogged by controversy over the gameplay model, never mind the financial model. But if your going to use the Skyrim sales model, then you need to look at what percentage of the 'console base' actually bought the game, which for the xbox360, there was around 83 million sold and for the PS3 around another 80 million, now, 160 million units vs 20 million skyrim copies, or about 12 percent of the available playerbase, the figure is lower really because the PC sales are also included in that figure, but for ease of use, lets just take it as that, now, given the current 'guesstimate' of Consoles is around 9 million (its more but at the moment don't know by how much, but probably not by more than 2 million.. maybe) then 12% of 9 million is around 800,000 but thats only if it was 'skyrim' which is an order of magnitude better than ESO, at least in my opinion, and probably in a great many others, if they achieve even 30% of Skyrims success i will be extremely surprised. either way, i do not think we'll be seeing 'millions' of sales.
I don't know what you two are talking about. Borrowed mechanics from other MMOs and no innovative mechanics has been very successful for WoW now hasn't it.
WoW did have features that had been used before but it also included innovation. However the big thing that WoW did was to bring online gaming to a much larger audience - from hundreds of thousands to millions. And to the new audience everything was new. That isn't the case today.
Originally posted by Teala Going to say, 1.5 to 2 million sales across all platforms. With a 5% to 10% retention rate the first 6 months. Scaling down to a 3% to 5% retention rate after that. From then on it'll just be a revolving door of players, and never retaining more than 5%. Game will be free to play in 1 year to 1.5 years.
I doubt whether they will make those kinds of sales figures, even cross platform,
Really?
You don't think they can sell 1.5 millions copies cross platform when Skyrim sold over 20 million copies?
That's only 15% of the people that bought Skyrim.
really, because there aren't enough people out there with the next gen consoles to generate those kinds of figures, if the game was released on the Xbox 360 and the PS3 that would change things drastically, which is also btw, why Microsoft also released Titanfail on the Xbox360, they needed the player numbers and there just wasn't enough XB1's out there to do it. there are at best out there, around 9 million next gen consoles, around 6 million of which are PS4's not every single one is going to want to guy the game, even if it came with a brand new sparkly pony with every sale. Drawing comparisons with a single player game like Skyrim is also very misleading, for one thing, you don't have to pay a sub to play it, its also Zenimax's first game and its also a game that has been dogged by controversy over the gameplay model, never mind the financial model. But if your going to use the Skyrim sales model, then you need to look at what percentage of the 'console base' actually bought the game, which for the xbox360, there was around 83 million sold and for the PS3 around another 80 million, now, 160 million units vs 20 million skyrim copies, or about 12 percent of the available playerbase, the figure is lower really because the PC sales are also included in that figure, but for ease of use, lets just take it as that, now, given the current 'guesstimate' of Consoles is around 9 million (its more but at the moment don't know by how much, but probably not by more than 2 million.. maybe) then 12% of 9 million is around 800,000 but thats only if it was 'skyrim' which is an order of magnitude better than ESO, at least in my opinion, and probably in a great many others, if they achieve even 30% of Skyrims success i will be extremely surprised. either way, i do not think we'll be seeing 'millions' of sales.
Just to add to Phry's comments:
TESO is not currently available in some of the regions into which XB1 and PS4 regions have sold e.g. Japan. So the potential console market is even smaller.
Skyrim only had say 10M through sales at the initial launch price. Further sales took place when Zenimax reduced the price. So potential purchasers are price sensitive.
Originally posted by Teala Going to say, 1.5 to 2 million sales across all platforms. With a 5% to 10% retention rate the first 6 months. Scaling down to a 3% to 5% retention rate after that. From then on it'll just be a revolving door of players, and never retaining more than 5%. Game will be free to play in 1 year to 1.5 years.
I doubt whether they will make those kinds of sales figures, even cross platform,
Really?
You don't think they can sell 1.5 millions copies cross platform when Skyrim sold over 20 million copies?
That's only 15% of the people that bought Skyrim.
really, because there aren't enough people out there with the next gen consoles to generate those kinds of figures, if the game was released on the Xbox 360 and the PS3 that would change things drastically, which is also btw, why Microsoft also released Titanfail on the Xbox360, they needed the player numbers and there just wasn't enough XB1's out there to do it. there are at best out there, around 9 million next gen consoles, around 6 million of which are PS4's not every single one is going to want to guy the game, even if it came with a brand new sparkly pony with every sale. Drawing comparisons with a single player game like Skyrim is also very misleading, for one thing, you don't have to pay a sub to play it, its also Zenimax's first game and its also a game that has been dogged by controversy over the gameplay model, never mind the financial model. But if your going to use the Skyrim sales model, then you need to look at what percentage of the 'console base' actually bought the game, which for the xbox360, there was around 83 million sold and for the PS3 around another 80 million, now, 160 million units vs 20 million skyrim copies, or about 12 percent of the available playerbase, the figure is lower really because the PC sales are also included in that figure, but for ease of use, lets just take it as that, now, given the current 'guesstimate' of Consoles is around 9 million (its more but at the moment don't know by how much, but probably not by more than 2 million.. maybe) then 12% of 9 million is around 800,000 but thats only if it was 'skyrim' which is an order of magnitude better than ESO, at least in my opinion, and probably in a great many others, if they achieve even 30% of Skyrims success i will be extremely surprised. either way, i do not think we'll be seeing 'millions' of sales.
Just to add to Phry's comments:
TESO is not currently available in some of the regions into which XB1 and PS4 regions have sold e.g. Japan. So the potential console market is even smaller.
Skyrim only had say 10M through sales at the initial launch price. Further sales took place when Zenimax reduced the price. So potential purchasers are price sensitive.
Exactly.
Chalk half ot those 20 million up to players who ONLY bought the game BECAUSE it was £5-£10 on Steam or in a bargain bin in stores.
ps: PS4 and XBox-One each have roughly 50k preorders each, in the USA, with ~2.5 months to go. The really interesting part is going to see whether console folk accept P2P games.
FFXIV
Yeah but in case of FFXIV majority of console subs come from Japan. That is how it was with FFXI. Sadly ESO isn't released in Asia.
Indeed. As another example DC Universe Online was never a, 'massive', hit on the ps3 because a lot of us here misjudged the negative reaction console gamers had to paying a sub fee.
It seems having a cross platform sub based MMO doesn't guarantee more success..
Originally posted by kabitoshin Hey if you look at it this way when WoW launched it only had 240k sales that's terrible for todays standards.
Lol yeah
It's just a shame that ESO is not launching in 2004.
ESO is launching in 2014 and wil (and should) be judged by modern standards, versus it's competitors as they stand today.
Even SWTOR had more US based physical pre orders than ESO. And so many people on this very forum labelled it TORtanic.
If the sales pan out the way they are looking initially, you guys will need to come up with an ESO-fail meme that is equally creative
What does what people here say have to do with a Star Wars game ( a continuation of one of the most popular games in the franchise)? I already did, it's The Esodenburg..
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
Originally posted by Teala Going to say, 1.5 to 2 million sales across all platforms. With a 5% to 10% retention rate the first 6 months. Scaling down to a 3% to 5% retention rate after that. From then on it'll just be a revolving door of players, and never retaining more than 5%. Game will be free to play in 1 year to 1.5 years.
I doubt whether they will make those kinds of sales figures, even cross platform,
Really?
You don't think they can sell 1.5 millions copies cross platform when Skyrim sold over 20 million copies?
That's only 15% of the people that bought Skyrim.
really, because there aren't enough people out there with the next gen consoles to generate those kinds of figures, if the game was released on the Xbox 360 and the PS3 that would change things drastically, which is also btw, why Microsoft also released Titanfail on the Xbox360, they needed the player numbers and there just wasn't enough XB1's out there to do it. there are at best out there, around 9 million next gen consoles, around 6 million of which are PS4's not every single one is going to want to guy the game, even if it came with a brand new sparkly pony with every sale. Drawing comparisons with a single player game like Skyrim is also very misleading, for one thing, you don't have to pay a sub to play it, its also Zenimax's first game and its also a game that has been dogged by controversy over the gameplay model, never mind the financial model. But if your going to use the Skyrim sales model, then you need to look at what percentage of the 'console base' actually bought the game, which for the xbox360, there was around 83 million sold and for the PS3 around another 80 million, now, 160 million units vs 20 million skyrim copies, or about 12 percent of the available playerbase, the figure is lower really because the PC sales are also included in that figure, but for ease of use, lets just take it as that, now, given the current 'guesstimate' of Consoles is around 9 million (its more but at the moment don't know by how much, but probably not by more than 2 million.. maybe) then 12% of 9 million is around 800,000 but thats only if it was 'skyrim' which is an order of magnitude better than ESO, at least in my opinion, and probably in a great many others, if they achieve even 30% of Skyrims success i will be extremely surprised. either way, i do not think we'll be seeing 'millions' of sales.
Just to add to Phry's comments:
TESO is not currently available in some of the regions into which XB1 and PS4 regions have sold e.g. Japan. So the potential console market is even smaller.
Skyrim only had say 10M through sales at the initial launch price. Further sales took place when Zenimax reduced the price. So potential purchasers are price sensitive.
Exactly.
Chalk half ot those 20 million up to players who ONLY bought the game BECAUSE it was £5-£10 on Steam or in a bargain bin in stores.
You missed another point.
Too many console owners own a PC too. This doesn't mean they are going to buy it x2
Originally posted by Dren_Utogi I'm using data from skyrim sales, adjustment made to people who who wopuld never pay for a subscription and the adjustement of mmorpg players. 12million boxes /digital sales a good estimate if you look at skyrim sales and the ES franchise as a whole.
That's the worst attempt at a sales prediction I have EVER seen. You may as well have just pulled an imaginary number out of your fanboy behind.
Skyrim is widely regarded as one of the best RPGs of all time. TESO is widely regarded as an average MMO. Skyrim broke day 1 and week 1 sales records, and is one of the best selling PC games of all time. TESO hasn't broken day 1 or week 1 sales records, isn't going to break day 1 or week 1 sales records, and has shipped the lowest number of boxes since records began. I may be making that last bit up, but seriously... TESO sales are so low, I'm guessing Mr Firor will be out of a job in the next few months.
Good riddance and "told you so" is all I have to say.
Total sales box and digital: 2.1m with 1.6m coming from PC an 500k from next gen consoles.
Much faster decline in subscriptions than we previously seen because people are getting tired of the genre.
5 Months they will announce a big expansion for the holiday season Nov/Dec target that promises "rainbow farting unicorns" and more competitive PvP.
6 Months: Box price is reduced to 1 month subscription cost.
8 Months: Game is free to download. Server are merged or data centers consolidated in one region.
Promised expansion is delayed and we get a shop with cosmetics instead. Also xmas events.
12 Months: Expansion releases at the 1 year anniversary and after an initial spike in subscriptions the game struggles to keep 150k subscribers. Mounts appear in the shop.
15 Months: Rumours about F2P making the round. Character slots, Inventory size and XP boost appear in the shop.
18 Months: Full F2P conversion.
30 Months: No one talks about the game any more. It joined the ranks of SWTOR and Secret World struggling to stay alive.
"Give players systems and tools instead of rails and rules"
Does this game have a single player version as well??? Meaning I can play it without having to sub to the online version??
If so you might sell a few more, but you should be we'll over 500k by now and over 1 million within a week anything less is going to be a big downer for population.
If the sale numbers stay low then you could hope for slow pick up sales over time, but the retention is gonna get hit hard after the 30-60 day period when people run out of the Free month.
How much is the monthly sub for this game?? That will play a big role as well. $5 a month would keep people longer...$25 a month and lol say good bye to most within a couple months..
3 months from now if you have over 100-200k people you'll be doing ok.
Total sales box and digital: 2.1m with 1.6m coming from PC an 500k from next gen consoles.
Much faster decline in subscriptions than we previously seen because people are getting tired of the genre.
5 Months they will announce a big expansion for the holiday season Nov/Dec target that promises "rainbow farting unicorns" and more competitive PvP.
6 Months: Box price is reduced to 1 month subscription cost.
8 Months: Game is free to download. Server are merged or data centers consolidated in one region.
Promised expansion is delayed and we get a shop with cosmetics instead. Also xmas events.
12 Months: Expansion releases at the 1 year anniversary and after an initial spike in subscriptions the game struggles to keep 150k subscribers. Mounts appear in the shop.
15 Months: Rumours about F2P making the round. Character slots, Inventory size and XP boost appear in the shop.
18 Months: Full F2P conversion.
30 Months: No one talks about the game any more. It joined the ranks of SWTOR and Secret World struggling to stay alive.
Finally! The real end game can start. Forget this questing and exploration crap. We all know predicting subscription numbers and quoting financial reports are what MMOs are really all about.
SWTOR is far from struggling you should check out the in game population before you spout rubbish.
While true, TOR was colossal failure in it's first year, probably not even being able to recover the incial investment from the box sales.
It's making alot of money now, but let's not kid ourselves. Alot of that is because of the Star Wars name attached to it. If you took the same exact game without that name and Bioware's, and replaced it with a different IP like Wildstar, The Repopulation or Anarchy Online, it would lose alot of players, easily.
How many? I don't know. But a considerable amount IMO.
SWTOR is far from struggling you should check out the in game population before you spout rubbish.
While true, TOR was colossal failure in it's first year, probably not even being able to recover the incial investment from the box sales.
It's making alot of money now, but let's not kid ourselves. Alot of that is because of the Star Wars name attached to it. If you took the same exact game without that name and Bioware's, and replaced it with a different IP like Wildstar, The Repopulation or Anarchy Online, it would lose alot of players, easily.
How many? I don't know. But a considerable amount IMO.
The problem with this line of thinking is, Star Wars didn't help it from failing before, why would it now?
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
Look I actually play SWTOR last night there were 60 people on Taris. People were grouping to do Heroics and chat was hopping. I cannot understand this constant claim that SWTOR is failing when it is releasing new content and they seem to be making money. If they were not they would not be doing any of the above. The game would be shut down if it was a failure.
SWTOR is far from struggling you should check out the in game population before you spout rubbish.
While true, TOR was colossal failure in it's first year, probably not even being able to recover the incial investment from the box sales.
It's making alot of money now, but let's not kid ourselves. Alot of that is because of the Star Wars name attached to it. If you took the same exact game without that name and Bioware's, and replaced it with a different IP like Wildstar, The Repopulation or Anarchy Online, it would lose alot of players, easily.
How many? I don't know. But a considerable amount IMO.
Can you imagine the truck load of fail that ESO would be without the Elder Scrolls name?
The sales numbers are looking bad enough WITH the Elder Scrolls name.....
Just goes to show if you package up a ho-hum mediocre, on rails themepark mmorpg even the industries biggest IPs do not guarantee success....
Comments
What? You do realize 99% p2p games also sale boxes right? I mean...how you don't know this is astounding actually.
Be the Ultimate Ninja! Play Billy Vs. SNAKEMAN today!
I think he means that if it wasn't the sub fee, then the box sales would be much higher. That's true, but it depends if in the long term the game goes well as sub based or not.
really, because there aren't enough people out there with the next gen consoles to generate those kinds of figures, if the game was released on the Xbox 360 and the PS3 that would change things drastically, which is also btw, why Microsoft also released Titanfail on the Xbox360, they needed the player numbers and there just wasn't enough XB1's out there to do it. there are at best out there, around 9 million next gen consoles, around 6 million of which are PS4's not every single one is going to want to guy the game, even if it came with a brand new sparkly pony with every sale. Drawing comparisons with a single player game like Skyrim is also very misleading, for one thing, you don't have to pay a sub to play it, its also Zenimax's first game and its also a game that has been dogged by controversy over the gameplay model, never mind the financial model. But if your going to use the Skyrim sales model, then you need to look at what percentage of the 'console base' actually bought the game, which for the xbox360, there was around 83 million sold and for the PS3 around another 80 million, now, 160 million units vs 20 million skyrim copies, or about 12 percent of the available playerbase, the figure is lower really because the PC sales are also included in that figure, but for ease of use, lets just take it as that, now, given the current 'guesstimate' of Consoles is around 9 million (its more but at the moment don't know by how much, but probably not by more than 2 million.. maybe) then 12% of 9 million is around 800,000 but thats only if it was 'skyrim' which is an order of magnitude better than ESO, at least in my opinion, and probably in a great many others, if they achieve even 30% of Skyrims success i will be extremely surprised. either way, i do not think we'll be seeing 'millions' of sales.
WoW did have features that had been used before but it also included innovation. However the big thing that WoW did was to bring online gaming to a much larger audience - from hundreds of thousands to millions. And to the new audience everything was new. That isn't the case today.
Lol yeah
It's just a shame that ESO is not launching in 2004.
ESO is launching in 2014 and wil (and should) be judged by modern standards, versus it's competitors as they stand today.
Even SWTOR had more US based physical pre orders than ESO. And so many people on this very forum labelled it TORtanic.
If the sales pan out the way they are looking initially, you guys will need to come up with an ESO-fail meme that is equally creative
Just to add to Phry's comments:
Exactly.
Chalk half ot those 20 million up to players who ONLY bought the game BECAUSE it was £5-£10 on Steam or in a bargain bin in stores.
Indeed. As another example DC Universe Online was never a, 'massive', hit on the ps3 because a lot of us here misjudged the negative reaction console gamers had to paying a sub fee.
It seems having a cross platform sub based MMO doesn't guarantee more success..
This looks like a job for....The Riviera Kid!
Someone who thinks ESO sold 12 million pc versions already shouldn't be making retention predictions
edit: "And that's a scientific fact!"
"You are all going to poop yourselves." BillMurphy
"Laugh and the world laughs with you. Weep and you weep alone."
Ghost town in 5 months.
I am not saying that I want that to be the case, but I don't see how the game can keep people around any longer than that, honestly.
What does what people here say have to do with a Star Wars game ( a continuation of one of the most popular games in the franchise)? I already did, it's The Esodenburg..
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
You missed another point.
Too many console owners own a PC too. This doesn't mean they are going to buy it x2
That's the worst attempt at a sales prediction I have EVER seen. You may as well have just pulled an imaginary number out of your fanboy behind.
Skyrim is widely regarded as one of the best RPGs of all time. TESO is widely regarded as an average MMO. Skyrim broke day 1 and week 1 sales records, and is one of the best selling PC games of all time. TESO hasn't broken day 1 or week 1 sales records, isn't going to break day 1 or week 1 sales records, and has shipped the lowest number of boxes since records began. I may be making that last bit up, but seriously... TESO sales are so low, I'm guessing Mr Firor will be out of a job in the next few months.
Good riddance and "told you so" is all I have to say.
I'll chime in too. Yay, this is fun!
Does this game have a single player version as well??? Meaning I can play it without having to sub to the online version??
If so you might sell a few more, but you should be we'll over 500k by now and over 1 million within a week anything less is going to be a big downer for population.
If the sale numbers stay low then you could hope for slow pick up sales over time, but the retention is gonna get hit hard after the 30-60 day period when people run out of the Free month.
How much is the monthly sub for this game?? That will play a big role as well. $5 a month would keep people longer...$25 a month and lol say good bye to most within a couple months..
3 months from now if you have over 100-200k people you'll be doing ok.
SWTOR is one of the most successful mmos out right now.
All the hipster douchebags like to say it failed so they can pretend they are cool and part of the in crowd.
The fact is it makes lots of money and they are constantly expanding the game and adding new features.
Ahahahaha nice post
SWTOR is far from struggling you should check out the in game population before you spout rubbish.
While true, TOR was colossal failure in it's first year, probably not even being able to recover the incial investment from the box sales.
It's making alot of money now, but let's not kid ourselves. Alot of that is because of the Star Wars name attached to it. If you took the same exact game without that name and Bioware's, and replaced it with a different IP like Wildstar, The Repopulation or Anarchy Online, it would lose alot of players, easily.
How many? I don't know. But a considerable amount IMO.
The problem with this line of thinking is, Star Wars didn't help it from failing before, why would it now?
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
Look I actually play SWTOR last night there were 60 people on Taris. People were grouping to do Heroics and chat was hopping. I cannot understand this constant claim that SWTOR is failing when it is releasing new content and they seem to be making money. If they were not they would not be doing any of the above. The game would be shut down if it was a failure.
Can you imagine the truck load of fail that ESO would be without the Elder Scrolls name?
The sales numbers are looking bad enough WITH the Elder Scrolls name.....
Just goes to show if you package up a ho-hum mediocre, on rails themepark mmorpg even the industries biggest IPs do not guarantee success....