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If ESO sells 2 million copies (ie 10% of Skyrim sales), even at the net profit rate, we are talking hundreds of millions of dollars. Game development essentially paid for, everything else is gravy.
Given other recent MMO release data, that number is doable.
If you are holding out for the perfect game, the only game you play will be the waiting one.
Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by lizardbones So what you're saying is that after the four month mark, more people bought the game than registered to get information on the game?
i agreed with the Op
but I also clarified that sub retention matters more than bought copies
Yeah, that's really the big deal, isn't it? If they only sold two million copies of the game, but kept a million subscribers, they would probably be very happy and the game would look like a success. If they sell five million copies and keep a million people they would be even happier, but everyone will call the game a failure.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Originally posted by Knotwood http://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en/news/post/2014/03/14/eso-road-ahead Here is a few statements I would like to talk about from this article: 1): "If you’re reading this, you’re probably one of the 5 million people that have registered for the ESO beta, and likely participated in one of our large beta tests." My thoughts: That is a HUGE number of registerd beta testers, if even a fraction of them buy the game, were seeing going to see at least 5 million starting. I don't recall a game in history with this many registered beta testers. The testers numbers tend to be lower then the people who buy a game, so How many do you think are going to buy the game, if were seeing that many testers alone? 2): "Based on the existing number of our beta signups and because we anticipate that the ESO community will continue to grow after launch, we plan to add capacity to keep up with demand in both our North American and European datacenters." My thoughts: They looked at those beta numbers and expect it to grow even larger at launch. I'm saying 10 million in the first year easily after seeing those beta registration numbers. 3): And just to be fully prepared, we are adding overflow servers in the event we get even more players on day one than we are now forecasting. My thoughts: They have a plan to make sure there is overflow servers for millions more on day one if there is too many people. Something I think future games are going to need considering the larger number of gamers we are starting to see. 4): If player demand overwhelms our planned capacity and a queue has to be formed, we will offer waiting players the option to begin playing right away on an overflow server. My thoughts: They are doing this part right. people don't want to wait in ques, so this is a great option. Everything you get on an overflow server will allow you to bring back to the megaservers. Only problem is you will not have a friend list because its not hooked up to the main database. 5): And as many of you have asked, the answer is yes to one additional benefit – we will offer various subscription discount packs beginning on April 4. My thoughts: I sure hope they offer a lifetime... This game is going to be around for a very long time. So there it is. Some pretty solid reasons this game is going to be 10 million in the first year. Not only are they showing they have world wide players coming to the game in droves but they are prepared for it also. You take that and add it to the A+ customer service they have, we got ourselves a 10 million sub game in the first year easily.
What drugs are you taking, and where might I procure some?
They game is just the same ol, same ol, with a Elder Scroll paint job. That's not to say many won't find it enjoyable. But it's nothing new or innovative. It's a weird half breed of ES and MMO - and it doesn't do either particularly well really.
I signed up for the beta, received keys for every weekend but never played, I also have no intention of buying the game. How many of those 5 million are just like me?
I'd imagine that almost everyone who had a passing interest in this game signed up for beta. How many out of that 5 million are actually planning on purchasing the game is the real question. The OP seems to be assuming that pretty much everyone of them are, which is amazingly naive.
I have no doubt that, based on the IP alone (and amazingly enough, lack of knowledge about the required sub), the game can reach at least 5 million sales across all platforms by the end of the year. But, 10 million? I think some people, the OP especially, are overestimating the popularity of not only the IP but MMOs in general.
Originally posted by lizardbones Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by lizardbones So what you're saying is that after the four month mark, more people bought the game than registered to get information on the game?
Are you sure about that? Given the current market, I think anyone not named WoW retaining 1 million subs would be considered a success.
BEEP BEEP BEEP BEEP BBEP
Someone needs to hit the snooze button already.
Well, I'll put this out:
I've received 5 beta invites without even asking for them, just for registering on their site back in the day when the game did look potentially interesting to me. I only bothered to install the game 1 of the 5 invites, till I found the game lacking personality, with dull combat and boring in general. Even then, they've kept spamming invites and surveys that I didn't bother to fill. The last few invites even had attached "friend's pass" that I also didn't bother to pass to anyone. Even as I type this, I have 2 more invites sitting in my email for the coming weekend. I guess they just don't get the message, do they?
But to the point - I've received around 7 beta invites (5 for myself plus 2 "bring a friend" passes) without even asking for it, and I've only used up one of them, during 2-3 hours. Sure looks cool to say "5 million beta invites" but looking at my own experience, if out of 7 invites only 1 has been used, that number will be definitely look much less cool.
About the OP saying that they'll have 10 million subscriptions within the first year... yeah, I'll just not comment on that, because I might hurt someone's feelings.
My opinion is my own. I respect all other opinions and views equally, but keep in mind that my opinion will always be the best for me. That's why it's my opinion.
Why are you trying to throw out predictions on this board anyway? All you going to get back from them is their prediction(opinion). And guess what? Somehow they are right and you are wrong, If you stop trying to put threads on here to convince people they would eventually move on to hating the next game. Probably Wildstar within the next 2 to 3 weeks. Let it go already.
Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by Knotwood Turbine has *never* released sub #s for LOTRO (part of the perks of being a private mmo company)
Nielson ratings put them up there, and others have made charts with their yearly earnings on tax files. That's pretty solid if you ask me, they even bragged about the neilson ratings themselves.
I agree Nielson counts as a measurement
but its difficult to compare with other mmos that are giving concrete sub #s
I don't think it has to compare to anything else, it just shows that at one time, that game was at the top for its day of release. eventually technology gets better and so more new games came out and people were dying to see a new game like ESO come out, but what they got was GW2 and SWTOR. So the MMO market right now needs a game like ESO, this will have the same impact on MMO's as the past when they were first released. It will do something else, that hasent been done since wow also though. It will bring in new MMO players to the MMO world. something people back in the day thought was impossible until they seen WoW's advertisement campaign worldwide. ESO is very appealing to a skyrim and single player type of player and will do the same thing to the single player industry, which is massive, as WoW did for the MMO industry. That's the viewpoint here.
Originally posted by Knotwood Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by Knotwood Turbine has *never* released sub #s for LOTRO (part of the perks of being a private mmo company)
Says who...you? I seriously doubt this very much.
Originally posted by Knotwood I can agree that a lot of players wont accept this title as of yet, but I got to be honest I never knew so many people would look those beta numbers and say less players would play then the amount of players in any game! When was the last game you seen, where less people bought it then the number of players they had in beta?
Dude you need to get off the 5 million.
It was stated that 5 million beta accounts were created not 5 million beta tester played the game.
Comeback with concrete numbers on the amount that participated in beta then maybe your numbers might work.
Originally posted by udon "During the first day of release, Steam showed over 230,000 people playing Skyrim concurrently. In the first week of release, Bethesda stated that 7 million copies of the game had been shipped to retailers worldwide, and that total sales through the following Wednesday were expected to generate an estimated US$450 million. By December 16, 2011, this had risen to 10 million copies shipped to retail and around US$620 million. Additionally, Valve stated that it was the fastest selling game to date on their Steam platform. Steam's statistics page showed the client breaking a five million user record by having 5,012,468 users logged in January 2, 2012. During this time, Skyrim was the most-played game on Steam by a huge margin, with double the number of players as Team Fortress 2, the second-placed game. In the United Kingdom, Skyrim was the 9th best selling title of 2012. In June 2013, Bethesda announced that over 20 million copies of the game had been sold; of those sales, 59% were for the Xbox 360, 27% for the PS3, and 14% for the PC."
Lets see i bought most mmo's that came out in recent years.
WoWGWWarhammerAionRiftSWTORGW2Just to name a few well known triple A mmo'sAnd gues what :P ?They are all free to play except 1
I wont be buying ESO.....its just not good enough to justify a box price + sub in this time and age where there are so many options to choose from, both free to play and buy to play.All sub based mmo go free to play before their 1st birthday.....
Sorry its just not going to happen....realy it wont.Not even close to 5 millionZanimax should be happy to sell 1 million and pray they sell 2 million wich is insane with all the options availeble to us atm.
Originally posted by Doogiehowser Originally posted by laserit Originally posted by Pyuk Bullshit. It'll be F2P within a year. In three months after ship, there'll be massive layoffs because of the rapid decline in subs not sticking past the first month included with purchase. It's SWTOR all over again, including the same rabid faboism that occurred for SWTOR declaring it the 10 million subs WoW killer. So many Cool-Aid drinkers. It's sad, really. I just hope for the people that actually like ESO that the game will at least continue past the first year with a sudo-successful transition to F2P.
Majority will tell you its former.
F2P in a year but don't automatically assume it will go F2P even if it has only like 300- 500k subs.
i don't think any mmo can get 10 million subs in the NA and EU markets alone.
it would have to be B2P to have a chance IMO and that's just because of box sales only, not concurrent players.
Originally posted by Hoodwyn Originally posted by Knotwood I can agree that a lot of players wont accept this title as of yet, but I got to be honest I never knew so many people would look those beta numbers and say less players would play then the amount of players in any game! When was the last game you seen, where less people bought it then the number of players they had in beta?
how many people around here alone actually created more then one beta account, because I don't see 1 million people making 5 accounts around here. Most beta testers are not die hards who want to get into Daily testing beta.
100k people might be sadistic enough to want to be a daily beta tester and create 5 accounts to get in, but I don't see any more then that, and even that number is generous compared to other game betas.
Originally posted by Teala Originally posted by Knotwood Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by Knotwood Turbine has *never* released sub #s for LOTRO (part of the perks of being a private mmo company)
Yeah, random people making random statisitc based on numbers pulled off their asses.
So here is my statistic:
I'm a die hard Elder Scrolls player, and won't be touching ESO with a ten meter pole. So in my own vast experience, 0% of the people who play Elder Scroll SP games will play ESO.
Originally posted by Alber_gamer Originally posted by Teala Originally posted by Knotwood Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by Knotwood Turbine has *never* released sub #s for LOTRO (part of the perks of being a private mmo company)
Then where do you think all these 5 million beta accounts are coming from? Other MMO games? I don't think even half of those players are MMO gamers, and think most of them are ES fans, why do you think after one year, the game is looking more and more like Skyrim, why do you think they forced ESO to put in all the features of skyrim like first person view ect.
Originally posted by Knotwood Originally posted by Hoodwyn Originally posted by Knotwood I can agree that a lot of players wont accept this title as of yet, but I got to be honest I never knew so many people would look those beta numbers and say less players would play then the amount of players in any game! When was the last game you seen, where less people bought it then the number of players they had in beta?
Over the years on these forums, people like you have made some pretty wild predictions, but nobody has ever made anything as wild as this...seriously, you've topped them all. I recall people claiming Aion would crush WoW, Warhammer was suppose to bring in upwards of 5 million. LoTRO, was suppose to bring in a minimum of 4 million. SWToR was suppose to bring in 6 million according to a couple of users. GW2 was suppose to be a WoW killer. Same with Rift. Now you come along with this prediciton and claim 5 million just to get started and by the end of the year 10 milllion? Seriously?
With the way this game is, and it having a sub fee...this game might sell 2 mil(I'll be surprised if it sells 3+ mil), but it's player retention will not even be anywhere near that. They'll be lucky to maintain 500k subs after 6 months. I'll give it maybe a year or a little after and it'll go free to play...and it'll be struggling to retain 350k players(if that!). I've been playing these games for long enough time, and I am 99% correct on my predictions. This, like many other themepark games with PvP as it's main driving force do not do well in NA markets. SWToR, GW2, Aion and Warhammer tried to use PvP as a huge selling point - they all failed to do very well and nowhere near what people like you predicted.
If anything, all you are doing is creating a negative effect and this will hurt the game more than help it...seen it, been there.
Played the beta, would not buy. Pretty graphics, nice music, but more of the same crap. Game obviously created for console, action combat felt completely disconnected (mobs hitting me from 10 feet away because I rolled), in addition to dozens of other huge flaws.
10 million -1
Again you just seem to have 5 million in your head.
Show me an interview that states 5 million people BETA TESTED the game
Meaning how many of the 5 million actually tested the game hope this is clear enough for you.
Originally posted by Knotwood Originally posted by Alber_gamer Originally posted by Teala Originally posted by Knotwood Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by Knotwood Turbine has *never* released sub #s for LOTRO (part of the perks of being a private mmo company)
Very simple. Beta accounts are free, and Elder Scrolls franchise has a huge fanbase, as someone said earlier, Skyrim sold many millions of copies. Most if not all of those people saw no harm in trying ESO out FOR FREE. After being disappointed like I was, I foresee that most of the real Elder Scrolls fans won't pay for it and much less endure the subscription model, simply because ESO is not an Elder Scrolls game, it's a mediocre imitation designed to be a cashgrab that doesn't deserve to carry the IP's name.
I know lots of people that signed up multiple times for beta...I did, 5 times! Got 3 invites. To friends that didn't get into beta, I gave them my extra keys. It is not uncommon for people that are into MMO's to sign up multiple times for a beta invite. It increases their chances of getting in.