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Originally posted by Knotwood Originally posted by mmoguy43 ESO has piqued the interests of 5 million people enough to play a free demo. ok
And since when has Beta tester numbers EVER been greater then the amount gamers who bought the game?
The number of people who buy the game is almost always higher than the number of people who register to know about a game. There's no indication of how many of the people who register actually buy the game, but there is usually a correlation with the numbers.
With five million registered on the site, it seems likely that there will be more than five million boxes sold. Even if it's only six million boxes, that's a lot of boxes sold.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by Knotwood And since when has Beta tester numbers EVER been greater then the amount gamers who bought the game?
RIFT -- had 1 million registered accts pre launch
it was 4 months before 1 million bought the game
buying a game isnt what sub games are about
need to retain the subs
So what you're saying is that after the four month mark, more people bought the game than registered to get information on the game?
Hahaha, 10million. Hahaha, I literally fell off my chair laughing. Good one. There is no way the game will get even close to 10m.
A lot of those beta testers will probably not buy the game. Then again you also have people who haven't bothered with the beta at all and still bought the game. Like me! I didn't even bother reading what the game is all about! I autobuy all TES games. In the same way that I autobuy Blizzard games at launch without second thought. So far I haven't been disappointed.
Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.
Long time Elder Scrolls fan, have all the games, even have tried my hand at mods for Skyrim. I was one of the 'lucky' ones who got into the ESO beta early on. Personally I really HATE the whole "weekend beta test' idea. I've been beta testing games awhile now (and no I will not date myself that badly) Haven't two days MAYBE to debug a game is hard enough. Add to this the fact that there were no real UI information for combat and you can't see if anything balances. In a single player game this works, in an MMO it does not. When I posted such on the forums the very paraphrased answer from the devs was "Well we have a vision to break the MMO sterotype, and that's what we'll do, if your views don't mess with ours, tough." Again, not exact, but that set of statements was basically it for me. The game itself was fun for awhile, until I caught up with 'everyone' so for the next 3 beta weekends I could not see a single quest combat as there were so many people running through it I could just run to the end, get the 'goodie' and leave....Again, this is how they want the game to be, they don't want phasing or such on an 'open quest' just the solo type quests (With Dumbledore...oops)
As for 5 million beta people? Sure I can see that...Bet the numbers for ACTUAL beta testers were something like 100k though. Why? Because most people just want to play the game before everyone else for free. So, I'm one of those who tried to actual test the game, got told that they had a vision so I basically stopped giving suggestions and just bug reporting...Wish them luck with their "MMO breaking vision" but it just seems like the same old mmo with a new wrapper.
I probably should have said AAA game. Rift was a rarity, one that was practicly giving their game away for free upon launch, it was an exception to a lot of AAA games out there. No one ever heard of Trion before Rift and it was pretty much in the category of a lot of A rated games rather then AAA, it had to earn its AAA status, was a small company which was no different then any indie start up or other game company who wants to be AAA.
Originally posted by udon Your both projecting your personal dislike for the game to equate poor reception. If I could do that McDonalds would have gone out of business a decade ago. Quoted from the Wiki http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Elder_Scrolls_V:_Skyrim "During the first day of release, Steam showed over 230,000 people playing Skyrim concurrently. In the first week of release, Bethesda stated that 7 million copies of the game had been shipped to retailers worldwide, and that total sales through the following Wednesday were expected to generate an estimated US$450 million. By December 16, 2011, this had risen to 10 million copies shipped to retail and around US$620 million. Additionally, Valve stated that it was the fastest selling game to date on their Steam platform. Steam's statistics page showed the client breaking a five million user record by having 5,012,468 users logged in January 2, 2012. During this time, Skyrim was the most-played game on Steam by a huge margin, with double the number of players as Team Fortress 2, the second-placed game. In the United Kingdom, Skyrim was the 9th best selling title of 2012. In June 2013, Bethesda announced that over 20 million copies of the game had been sold; of those sales, 59% were for the Xbox 360, 27% for the PS3, and 14% for the PC." Still want to stand by your 600K projection on sales? I won't even guess at player retention at this point but 5-7 million in box/digital sales between PC and Console is easy to see for a Elder Scrolls Title.
Really you can't compare Skyrim and ESO. They are two entirely different games.
It's like comparing SWG pre NGE to SWtoR. They are based in the Star wars galaxy, but that is as far as the similarities go.
Originally posted by Knotwood Turbine does have a great game with LOTRO and its still on top of charts for subs and longest lasting. At one point in time it used to be second to the WoW sub numbers.
Turbine has *never* released sub #s for LOTRO (part of the perks of being a private mmo company)
Lineage and Lineage2 both had more subs
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I take these types of numbers with a grain of salt for sure. Having been in the beta weekends I have serious doubts that they got anywhere near that many players in the beta. When they start saying 'registered' you know that they are trying to make themselves look good. They should have a count of people who actually logged into the beta this last beta weekend, why didn't they spout off that number instead? Marketing at work here, nothing more.
Good that they added overflow servers though. The worst thing that can happen is to have a good launch ruined by your infrastructure not handling it. Better safe than sorry.
Originally posted by lizardbones So what you're saying is that after the four month mark, more people bought the game than registered to get information on the game?
i agreed with the Op
but I also clarified that sub retention matters more than bought copies
Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by Knotwood Turbine does have a great game with LOTRO and its still on top of charts for subs and longest lasting. At one point in time it used to be second to the WoW sub numbers.
Nielson ratings put them up there, and others have made charts with their yearly earnings on tax files. That's pretty solid if you ask me, they even bragged about the neilson ratings themselves.
ESO will be dead after 2-3 months. Personally wouldn't play it even if it went F2P! Played beta a few times and it sucks, it's significantly worse than Skyrim in its immersion and story telling and the multiplayer is boring and easy.
They are going to be relying on preorders to make there money as no one will be playing after a few months. This is why they are trying to hype the game to death and lying about pre orders numbers etc.
Originally posted by CasaFranky i played beta and i wont buy it. whers the logic in 5 milion beta players and 10 million customers?!
That's easy you take X amount of beta players and divide them by Bebe's Kids, then you add a little cayenne pepper and BAM!
Originally posted by Knotwood Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by Knotwood And since when has Beta tester numbers EVER been greater then the amount gamers who bought the game?
Rift was heavily advertised with a AAA ad budget. There were even ads in movie theaters. It also cost the same as a AAA game at release. When you get proven wrong, changing the requirements of your question is pretty desperate.
Originally posted by ChudzUK ESO will be dead after 2-3 months. Personally wouldn't play it even if it went F2P! Played beta a few times and it sucks, it's significantly worse than Skyrim in its immersion and story telling and the multiplayer is boring and easy. They are going to be relying on preorders to make there money as no one will be playing after a few months. This is why they are trying to hype the game to death and lying about pre orders numbers etc.
That sounds more like a review then a statement about the numbers backed up by any theories or facts.
Originally posted by Knotwood Originally posted by ChudzUK ESO will be dead after 2-3 months. Personally wouldn't play it even if it went F2P! Played beta a few times and it sucks, it's significantly worse than Skyrim in its immersion and story telling and the multiplayer is boring and easy. They are going to be relying on preorders to make there money as no one will be playing after a few months. This is why they are trying to hype the game to death and lying about pre orders numbers etc.
Pot Meet Kettle
Originally posted by Knotwood Turbine has *never* released sub #s for LOTRO (part of the perks of being a private mmo company)
I agree Nielson counts as a measurement
but its difficult to compare with other mmos that are giving concrete sub #s
Originally posted by Ikonis Originally posted by Knotwood Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by Knotwood And since when has Beta tester numbers EVER been greater then the amount gamers who bought the game?
Having AAA ad budgets and being known as an AAA company when you launch is two different things. I remember they went to $15 within one month on their game, and signing up anyone and everyone they could just to get known. It worked for them, they are successful now, but they had to work to get there... the fact that their beta testers were more then their launch should tell you where their starting reputation was at.
We got Elder Scrolls Series with Zenimax/betheda. Everyone knows what an elder scrolls game is and if they did not before Skyrim they do now. Zenimax has a AAA repugation before launch and a history unlike trion had, just like blizzard and final fantasy, they had a player base before they launched. So you cant base all AAA games off of rift, and rifts beta testing numbers selling less then its tester amounts, because it wasn't starting out as an AAA company before it was launched.
No chance for it to get 10 millions in one year... but yes if they work and fix the bugs it can do well enough.
It doesn`t have the appeal to get 10m tho... many things are missing for example you are limited to 5 skills, you can`t even see your own buffs, no arena pvp...
My opinion anyway and yes i agree if they fix the bugs i will play this hopefully for a long time....
Originally posted by Knotwood So there it is. Some pretty solid reasons this game is going to be 10 million in the first year. Not only are they showing they have world wide players coming to the game in droves but they are prepared for it also. You take that and add it to the A+ customer service they have, we got ourselves a 10 million sub game in the first year easily.
Lol are you new to mmo's, seriously?
The bit in yellow especially made me lol.
Talk about hook line and sinker lol.
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Originally posted by ChudzUK It was a review lol. There is nothing to discuss on there numbers lol it's just a marketing tactic, it might be true 5 mill beta accounts but you know there only going to be like 2 million players that buy it
I know its hard to believe that a game has finally came that will be close to 5 million at launch. Im so excited for it. Would you have ever believed 5 million beta test numbers, even if duplicated, your going to tell me over 1 million people made 5 accounts to get into beta? I find that really far out there. I'm sure 100-200k might have duplicated some accounts but I just don't see 1 million people trying that hard. I put the actual testers at around 4 million at least.
Like most people, they don't want to spoil their gameplay by playing every beta also, so your going to have a lot of people who tried it and did not want to ruin their experience with more game plays, so its smart that zenimax does not release actual numbers of people who played in beta.
If 4 million people beta tested this game, that's stil going to result in over 4 million players in the first month. Expecilly witht he AAA title behind it having that many beta testers. If you look at companies like SOE, when they release a game like Dragon Nest,t hey easily got over the number of beta testers on day one just because of how many fans they had before launch of it.
Originally posted by rodingo We will quickly learn if this title will sink or swim. I hope Zenimax has plan B and C ready to go just in case.
considering the overlow servers, I think they are not worried about sinking as much as they are about overselling the game, and going over server capacity. or they wouldn't waste that much money to have those back up servers ready to roll out, as it costs money for all that.
When you start getting into the fan numbers of elderscrolls, and skyrim sales of 20 million copies, you never know just how big or little it will go, but you can bet, that there will be swing numbers in the miillions on this game.