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5 million registered beta users! 10 million users by end of year.
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So what you're saying is that after the four month mark, more people bought the game than registered to get information on the game?
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Hahaha, 10million. Hahaha, I literally fell off my chair laughing. Good one. There is no way the game will get even close to 10m.
A lot of those beta testers will probably not buy the game. Then again you also have people who haven't bothered with the beta at all and still bought the game. Like me! I didn't even bother reading what the game is all about! I autobuy all TES games. In the same way that I autobuy Blizzard games at launch without second thought. So far I haven't been disappointed.
Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.
Long time Elder Scrolls fan, have all the games, even have tried my hand at mods for Skyrim. I was one of the 'lucky' ones who got into the ESO beta early on. Personally I really HATE the whole "weekend beta test' idea. I've been beta testing games awhile now (and no I will not date myself that badly) Haven't two days MAYBE to debug a game is hard enough. Add to this the fact that there were no real UI information for combat and you can't see if anything balances. In a single player game this works, in an MMO it does not. When I posted such on the forums the very paraphrased answer from the devs was "Well we have a vision to break the MMO sterotype, and that's what we'll do, if your views don't mess with ours, tough." Again, not exact, but that set of statements was basically it for me. The game itself was fun for awhile, until I caught up with 'everyone' so for the next 3 beta weekends I could not see a single quest combat as there were so many people running through it I could just run to the end, get the 'goodie' and leave....Again, this is how they want the game to be, they don't want phasing or such on an 'open quest' just the solo type quests (With Dumbledore...oops)
As for 5 million beta people? Sure I can see that...Bet the numbers for ACTUAL beta testers were something like 100k though. Why? Because most people just want to play the game before everyone else for free. So, I'm one of those who tried to actual test the game, got told that they had a vision so I basically stopped giving suggestions and just bug reporting...Wish them luck with their "MMO breaking vision" but it just seems like the same old mmo with a new wrapper.
I probably should have said AAA game. Rift was a rarity, one that was practicly giving their game away for free upon launch, it was an exception to a lot of AAA games out there. No one ever heard of Trion before Rift and it was pretty much in the category of a lot of A rated games rather then AAA, it had to earn its AAA status, was a small company which was no different then any indie start up or other game company who wants to be AAA.
Really you can't compare Skyrim and ESO. They are two entirely different games.
It's like comparing SWG pre NGE to SWtoR. They are based in the Star wars galaxy, but that is as far as the similarities go.
Turbine has *never* released sub #s for LOTRO (part of the perks of being a private mmo company)
Lineage and Lineage2 both had more subs
EQ2 fan sites
I take these types of numbers with a grain of salt for sure. Having been in the beta weekends I have serious doubts that they got anywhere near that many players in the beta. When they start saying 'registered' you know that they are trying to make themselves look good. They should have a count of people who actually logged into the beta this last beta weekend, why didn't they spout off that number instead? Marketing at work here, nothing more.
Good that they added overflow servers though. The worst thing that can happen is to have a good launch ruined by your infrastructure not handling it. Better safe than sorry.
i agreed with the Op
but I also clarified that sub retention matters more than bought copies
EQ2 fan sites
Nielson ratings put them up there, and others have made charts with their yearly earnings on tax files. That's pretty solid if you ask me, they even bragged about the neilson ratings themselves.
ESO will be dead after 2-3 months. Personally wouldn't play it even if it went F2P! Played beta a few times and it sucks, it's significantly worse than Skyrim in its immersion and story telling and the multiplayer is boring and easy.
They are going to be relying on preorders to make there money as no one will be playing after a few months. This is why they are trying to hype the game to death and lying about pre orders numbers etc.
That's easy you take X amount of beta players and divide them by Bebe's Kids, then you add a little cayenne pepper and BAM!
Rift was heavily advertised with a AAA ad budget. There were even ads in movie theaters. It also cost the same as a AAA game at release. When you get proven wrong, changing the requirements of your question is pretty desperate.
That sounds more like a review then a statement about the numbers backed up by any theories or facts.
Pot Meet Kettle
I agree Nielson counts as a measurement
but its difficult to compare with other mmos that are giving concrete sub #s
EQ2 fan sites
Having AAA ad budgets and being known as an AAA company when you launch is two different things. I remember they went to $15 within one month on their game, and signing up anyone and everyone they could just to get known. It worked for them, they are successful now, but they had to work to get there... the fact that their beta testers were more then their launch should tell you where their starting reputation was at.
We got Elder Scrolls Series with Zenimax/betheda. Everyone knows what an elder scrolls game is and if they did not before Skyrim they do now. Zenimax has a AAA repugation before launch and a history unlike trion had, just like blizzard and final fantasy, they had a player base before they launched. So you cant base all AAA games off of rift, and rifts beta testing numbers selling less then its tester amounts, because it wasn't starting out as an AAA company before it was launched.
No chance for it to get 10 millions in one year... but yes if they work and fix the bugs it can do well enough.
It doesn`t have the appeal to get 10m tho... many things are missing for example you are limited to 5 skills, you can`t even see your own buffs, no arena pvp...
My opinion anyway and yes i agree if they fix the bugs i will play this hopefully for a long time....
Lol are you new to mmo's, seriously?
The bit in yellow especially made me lol.
Talk about hook line and sinker lol.
"If I offended you, you needed it" -Corey Taylor
I know its hard to believe that a game has finally came that will be close to 5 million at launch. Im so excited for it. Would you have ever believed 5 million beta test numbers, even if duplicated, your going to tell me over 1 million people made 5 accounts to get into beta? I find that really far out there. I'm sure 100-200k might have duplicated some accounts but I just don't see 1 million people trying that hard. I put the actual testers at around 4 million at least.
Like most people, they don't want to spoil their gameplay by playing every beta also, so your going to have a lot of people who tried it and did not want to ruin their experience with more game plays, so its smart that zenimax does not release actual numbers of people who played in beta.
If 4 million people beta tested this game, that's stil going to result in over 4 million players in the first month. Expecilly witht he AAA title behind it having that many beta testers. If you look at companies like SOE, when they release a game like Dragon Nest,t hey easily got over the number of beta testers on day one just because of how many fans they had before launch of it.
considering the overlow servers, I think they are not worried about sinking as much as they are about overselling the game, and going over server capacity. or they wouldn't waste that much money to have those back up servers ready to roll out, as it costs money for all that.
When you start getting into the fan numbers of elderscrolls, and skyrim sales of 20 million copies, you never know just how big or little it will go, but you can bet, that there will be swing numbers in the miillions on this game.