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Will TESO make it?

BrunioBrunio Richmonde, VAPosts: 37Member Common

A big question I ask myself before I consider picking up an MMO is "Will it survive the launch hurdle?"

 

Whats that mean? The first couple months are VERY important for an MMOs survival. The initial impression players receive, how long does it take them to reach max level? how much end game is there? Is the PvP balanced/highly addictive? Are there extremely long-term or hard-to-get rewards that players can strive to achieve?

 

After so many MMOs have either gone free-to-play or just downright crashed and burned it makes a big difference in whether or not players such as myself pick up the game.

 

As it stands TESO has a good development team working on the PvP. The game seems to take a good long time to reach max level. Gearing while leveling should require at least some work since the game only uses Guild Vendors rather than an AH. I've also heard good things about the story since the NDA was lifted.

 

My big concerns are the End-Game Gearing/PvE. While I'm sure it will keep players interested for a while. A couple of months down the road Juicy content/patches will probably be needed to keep the game addictive and fun. Which also makes me curious as to how the Xbox/PS launch will affect the first patch.

 

At this point I'd like to think TESO has what it takes. It has a good PvP team, a cool system, and is slow enough to not be rushed through and beaten down by the vast majority of gamers, but truly one never knows until its launched and you've been around for a while.

 

Almost feels like I'm starting a new game of Civ.

Will The Elder Scrolls Online survive the test of time?

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Comments

  • RazankaRazanka St. Louis, MOPosts: 65Member Uncommon

    Well I think it will be successful. It's the only MMORPG that feels like an RPG while your playing it, I think that's biggest reason why so many of these games fail right out the gate, there's no attachment to your character. Your just mindlessly grinding through content til you get to end game. After playing several TESO betas I can honestly say this is most promising MMO I have played in a very long time. The PvP is great, the crafting is meaningful, and characters creation and progression is very flexible. The only thing that could derail this game is a cash shop that makes it P2W and a lack of PvE end game content, that said I would be more then willing to pay $15 a month just for the PvP alone.

  • KnotwoodKnotwood Missoula, MTPosts: 1,103Member

    This game will not only survive launch but will be the next WoW of the decade,  not that it will steal WoW's player base, but bring in the single players into MMO by the millions.  

     

    Also if they run an advertisement campaign world wide like WoW did with celebs and major brands, it should easily hit 10 million subs in the first year.

     

    Only thing that will slow its growth is XBOX Live, requiring both LIVE and a game sub.   I think after xbox players see the greed of Microsoft they'll make the right choice and sell their XBOX and go with PS4 or PC since sony is allowing this game to be a stand alone sub and as far as PC goes,  there nothing more then internet required.

     

    If your afraid of running out of content, I think there is enough here for atleast 3 months from launch.   They will be doing updates every 4-6 weeks,  but they also have Crafting as the best gear makers in game,  this is something that if content runs dry, will keep this game going np.   If they added enough solo things to do while waiting to raid ect.  I think they should also be fine if content does run out.   I think we'll have to see just how fast they can crank out content and time sinks for players after 3 months.

     

    If they really want to keep players occupied during dry content runs, I suggest Solo Skirmish Systems like LOTRO,  Solo/Group end game progression and Housing with lots of funishings that crafters can spend hours on, with dungeon throphy drops people love to try to get ect.   More things to keep us busy the better.

  • bcbullybcbully Westland, MIPosts: 8,284Member Uncommon

    I really, really wish each skill line/weapon had 5 more skills each. I plan to AvA 85% of the time to cap and beyond. My biggest fear is that due to the lack of skills per line that I may get bored on the way to cap :(  We'll see I guess. 

  • Jagwar_FangJagwar_Fang Lexington Park, MDPosts: 262Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    This game will not only survive launch but will be the next WoW of the decade,  not that it will steal WoW's player base, but bring in the single players into MMO by the millions.  

     

    Also if they run an advertisement campaign world wide like WoW did with celebs and major brands, it should easily hit 10 million subs in the first year.

     

    Only thing that will slow its growth is XBOX Live, requiring both LIVE and a game sub.   I think after xbox players see the greed of Microsoft they'll make the right choice and sell their XBOX and go with PS4 or PC since sony is allowing this game to be a stand alone sub and as far as PC goes,  there nothing more then internet required.

    I like the game as well, but where are you pulling those numbers out of?  Wait, don't tell me.  I think I can smell it.

  • CommoXCommoX Tucson, AZPosts: 80Member Uncommon

    I believe it will make it. It appeals to a specific kind of MMO Gamer and they will enjoy what the game has to offer.

    I don't believe it will make it at the scale everyone implies when they ask "Will "**" make it?" Why? Because today's gamer is fickle, riddled with the need to be led, surprised, wowed and amazed at every button click.

    The unfortunate truth is that games these days are marketed for the fire and forget crowd, the console gamer who plays for six hours and beats the game or leaves it on a shelf to never look at it again. These people mean money for game companies, and these people won't last 6 months in ESO.

    RPG gamers, MMORPG players and dedicated gamers will play ESO if it tickles their specific fancy. It will make it in this aspect. In all others, not so much.

    Games used to be made for gamers by gamers, now large companies make games for money, yes businesses need to turn a profit, but if you want a sure thing, find your crowd, cater, deliver and be happy you have a dedicated community instead of the 10 million player fluke built on a RTS that WoW is.

  • udonudon Durham, NCPosts: 1,768Member Uncommon
    This game will live or die on two things.  First and foremost how successful PVP is received and second how diligent Zenimax is keeping the new content coming post launch.  I don't think most people have a issue paying for a sub but a lot of them do have issues paying for a sub and not receiving any perceived value out of it.
  • whisperwyndwhisperwynd montreal, QCPosts: 1,479Member

     It will or it won't.

    Also, what's Zenimax's definition of 'making it'? What's yours?

    It's all perspective. Hell, many talk about the abominable SWTOR, and it's still around. For how long? Who knows?!

    The better question is; Will you like it as is? With the updates, fixes, nerfs, changes etc that all mmos go through until the day it either dies and goes offline or becomes one of the multitude of games 'Out there' with its dwindling population...

    No one can really answer that but you.

  • KnotwoodKnotwood Missoula, MTPosts: 1,103Member
    Originally posted by Bannuk
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    This game will not only survive launch but will be the next WoW of the decade,  not that it will steal WoW's player base, but bring in the single players into MMO by the millions.  

     

    Also if they run an advertisement campaign world wide like WoW did with celebs and major brands, it should easily hit 10 million subs in the first year.

     

    Only thing that will slow its growth is XBOX Live, requiring both LIVE and a game sub.   I think after xbox players see the greed of Microsoft they'll make the right choice and sell their XBOX and go with PS4 or PC since sony is allowing this game to be a stand alone sub and as far as PC goes,  there nothing more then internet required.

    I like the game as well, but where are you pulling those numbers out of?  Wait, don't tell me.  I think I can smell it.

     

    I guess you must have missed the fact SKYRIM sold over 20 million copies and was number one RPG game for over a year straight.

     

    http://www.gamezone.com/news/2014/01/28/skyrim-breaks-records-with-20-million-copies-sold

     

  • bcbullybcbully Westland, MIPosts: 8,284Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Knotwood
    Originally posted by Bannuk
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    This game will not only survive launch but will be the next WoW of the decade,  not that it will steal WoW's player base, but bring in the single players into MMO by the millions.  

     

    Also if they run an advertisement campaign world wide like WoW did with celebs and major brands, it should easily hit 10 million subs in the first year.

     

    Only thing that will slow its growth is XBOX Live, requiring both LIVE and a game sub.   I think after xbox players see the greed of Microsoft they'll make the right choice and sell their XBOX and go with PS4 or PC since sony is allowing this game to be a stand alone sub and as far as PC goes,  there nothing more then internet required.

    I like the game as well, but where are you pulling those numbers out of?  Wait, don't tell me.  I think I can smell it.

    I guess you must have missed the fact SKYRIM sold over 20 million copies and was number one RPG game for over a year straight.

    I've been say ESO will do 5 million first 3 months easy. It may go as high as 8. How many will be there in 6 months is anyones guess.

  • Jagwar_FangJagwar_Fang Lexington Park, MDPosts: 262Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Knotwood
    Originally posted by Bannuk
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    This game will not only survive launch but will be the next WoW of the decade,  not that it will steal WoW's player base, but bring in the single players into MMO by the millions.  

     

    Also if they run an advertisement campaign world wide like WoW did with celebs and major brands, it should easily hit 10 million subs in the first year.

     

    Only thing that will slow its growth is XBOX Live, requiring both LIVE and a game sub.   I think after xbox players see the greed of Microsoft they'll make the right choice and sell their XBOX and go with PS4 or PC since sony is allowing this game to be a stand alone sub and as far as PC goes,  there nothing more then internet required.

    I like the game as well, but where are you pulling those numbers out of?  Wait, don't tell me.  I think I can smell it.

    I guess you must have missed the fact SKYRIM sold over 20 million copies and was number one RPG game for over a year straight.

    So?  I suppose you have the market research or empirical data that shows that 50% of those will buy, play, and maintain a sub for the first year.

    It will sell well I have no doubt, but the real question is how many will stay after the first month.  Don't get me wrong, I hope you are correct, but claiming 10 million subs in one year is just foolhardy IMHO.

    We shall see though.

  • Ryoshi1Ryoshi1 Osaka, PAPosts: 139Member

    "Making it" to me is to make the game somewhat balanced and rewarding and not going f2p :D

    /f2p?wildstarloonytoonsguuuuu

  • superconductingsuperconducting Rochester, NYPosts: 843Member Uncommon

    You know why I think the launch won't have any major hiccups.

    Because the DAoC launch went really well.

    And DAoC's former creator is at the helm.

     

    And another thing- if things keep going the way they're going and the game keeps on getting better and better based on tester feedback, they will be golden by launch.

    image
  • Carl132pCarl132p Columbus, INPosts: 535Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    This game will not only survive launch but will be the next WoW of the decade,  not that it will steal WoW's player base, but bring in the single players into MMO by the millions.  

     

    Also if they run an advertisement campaign world wide like WoW did with celebs and major brands, it should easily hit 10 million subs in the first year.

     

    Only thing that will slow its growth is XBOX Live, requiring both LIVE and a game sub.   I think after xbox players see the greed of Microsoft they'll make the right choice and sell their XBOX and go with PS4 or PC since sony is allowing this game to be a stand alone sub and as far as PC goes,  there nothing more then internet required.

     

    If your afraid of running out of content, I think there is enough here for atleast 3 months from launch.   They will be doing updates every 4-6 weeks,  but they also have Crafting as the best gear makers in game,  this is something that if content runs dry, will keep this game going np.   If they added enough solo things to do while waiting to raid ect.  I think they should also be fine if content does run out.   I think we'll have to see just how fast they can crank out content and time sinks for players after 3 months.

     

    If they really want to keep players occupied during dry content runs, I suggest Solo Skirmish Systems like LOTRO,  Solo/Group end game progression and Housing with lots of funishings that crafters can spend hours on, with dungeon throphy drops people love to try to get ect.   More things to keep us busy the better.

    You sir, are high as a kite. Pass the bud.

  • ViiggoViiggo Sarasota, FLPosts: 3Member
    Originally posted by Carl132p
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    This game will not only survive launch but will be the next WoW of the decade,  not that it will steal WoW's player base, but bring in the single players into MMO by the millions.  

     

    Also if they run an advertisement campaign world wide like WoW did with celebs and major brands, it should easily hit 10 million subs in the first year.

     

    Only thing that will slow its growth is XBOX Live, requiring both LIVE and a game sub.   I think after xbox players see the greed of Microsoft they'll make the right choice and sell their XBOX and go with PS4 or PC since sony is allowing this game to be a stand alone sub and as far as PC goes,  there nothing more then internet required.

     

    If your afraid of running out of content, I think there is enough here for atleast 3 months from launch.   They will be doing updates every 4-6 weeks,  but they also have Crafting as the best gear makers in game,  this is something that if content runs dry, will keep this game going np.   If they added enough solo things to do while waiting to raid ect.  I think they should also be fine if content does run out.   I think we'll have to see just how fast they can crank out content and time sinks for players after 3 months.

     

    If they really want to keep players occupied during dry content runs, I suggest Solo Skirmish Systems like LOTRO,  Solo/Group end game progression and Housing with lots of funishings that crafters can spend hours on, with dungeon throphy drops people love to try to get ect.   More things to keep us busy the better.

    You sir, are high as a kite. Pass the bud.

    Dementia is a serious illness, don't make fun of him ;)

     

  • superconductingsuperconducting Rochester, NYPosts: 843Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Carl132p
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    This game will not only survive launch but will be the next WoW of the decade,  not that it will steal WoW's player base, but bring in the single players into MMO by the millions.  

     

    Also if they run an advertisement campaign world wide like WoW did with celebs and major brands, it should easily hit 10 million subs in the first year.

     

    Only thing that will slow its growth is XBOX Live, requiring both LIVE and a game sub.   I think after xbox players see the greed of Microsoft they'll make the right choice and sell their XBOX and go with PS4 or PC since sony is allowing this game to be a stand alone sub and as far as PC goes,  there nothing more then internet required.

     

    If your afraid of running out of content, I think there is enough here for atleast 3 months from launch.   They will be doing updates every 4-6 weeks,  but they also have Crafting as the best gear makers in game,  this is something that if content runs dry, will keep this game going np.   If they added enough solo things to do while waiting to raid ect.  I think they should also be fine if content does run out.   I think we'll have to see just how fast they can crank out content and time sinks for players after 3 months.

     

    If they really want to keep players occupied during dry content runs, I suggest Solo Skirmish Systems like LOTRO,  Solo/Group end game progression and Housing with lots of funishings that crafters can spend hours on, with dungeon throphy drops people love to try to get ect.   More things to keep us busy the better.

    You sir, are high as a kite. Pass the bud.

    It's actually not within the realm of impossibility.

    A great many are sick of WoW and just itching to get into something else. Many guilds have also already endorsed ESO as their next big thing.

    Then all it takes is for word to spread that this is THE game to be in, before everybody else jumps on the bandwagon and suddenly it just becomes a phenomenon.

    Unlikely, but still very possible.

    image
  • artemisentr4artemisentr4 fresno, CAPosts: 1,431Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by udon
    This game will live or die on two things.  First and foremost how successful PVP is received and second how diligent Zenimax is keeping the new content coming post launch.  I don't think most people have a issue paying for a sub but a lot of them do have issues paying for a sub and not receiving any perceived value out of it.

    One good thing is the Veteran point system for post level 50 advancement. You can play PvP, elite dungeon runs, 50+/50++ and should have adventure zones that will all give you skill points and Veteran points. You need to be "x" level of veteran to buy vender gear at end game.

     

    Crafting looks to be the top end game gear, but it will take a lot of work and skill points to get there. So that will be something to keep players playing both PvE and PvP. PvP for the keeps to sell the gear on a AH will be something guilds will want. Elite dungeon drops will be needed for crafting mats and research.

     

    They already have the Dark Brotherhood and Thieves guild along with a justice system that will be in after launch. Those will bring in new skills and quests. They also said that new skill lines will be coming along with new ways to earn skills.

     

    I can see the game lasting a long time with both a healthy PvP end game and PvE end game. But it may come down to how the Adventure zones work and when they are in the game.

    “How many people long for that "past, simpler, and better world," I wonder, without ever recognizing the truth that perhaps it was they who were simpler and better, and not the world about them?”
    R.A.Salvatore

  • maskedweaselmaskedweasel houston, TXPosts: 7,277Member Uncommon

    ESO is too big to fail... just like SWTOR and FFXIV...  this is a flagship title, and like FFXIV if it didn't take off immediately... it would be taken down and fixed -- then relaunched.

     

    Plus, with few console MMOs,  it will have a following there.. at least until more mainstream MMOs release on consoles.  Games like DCUO do extremely well on consoles in comparison, simply due to the interest in MMO titles on consoles with very few actual releases.

     

     

    "Loan me a Dragon I wanna see space"


    image

  • reeereeereeereee Posts: 1,206Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Knotwood
    Originally posted by Bannuk
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    This game will not only survive launch but will be the next WoW of the decade,  not that it will steal WoW's player base, but bring in the single players into MMO by the millions.  

     

    Also if they run an advertisement campaign world wide like WoW did with celebs and major brands, it should easily hit 10 million subs in the first year.

     

    Only thing that will slow its growth is XBOX Live, requiring both LIVE and a game sub.   I think after xbox players see the greed of Microsoft they'll make the right choice and sell their XBOX and go with PS4 or PC since sony is allowing this game to be a stand alone sub and as far as PC goes,  there nothing more then internet required.

    I like the game as well, but where are you pulling those numbers out of?  Wait, don't tell me.  I think I can smell it.

     

    I guess you must have missed the fact SKYRIM sold over 20 million copies and was number one RPG game for over a year straight.

     

    http://www.gamezone.com/news/2014/01/28/skyrim-breaks-records-with-20-million-copies-sold

     

    his thread is going to make for such wonderful necro material later this year.

  • laokokolaokoko TaipeiPosts: 2,003Member

    They most likely would have a steady player just because of the RvR.

     

  • Brabbit1987Brabbit1987 Ontario, CanadaPosts: 729Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Knotwood
    Originally posted by Bannuk
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    This game will not only survive launch but will be the next WoW of the decade,  not that it will steal WoW's player base, but bring in the single players into MMO by the millions.  

     

    Also if they run an advertisement campaign world wide like WoW did with celebs and major brands, it should easily hit 10 million subs in the first year.

     

    Only thing that will slow its growth is XBOX Live, requiring both LIVE and a game sub.   I think after xbox players see the greed of Microsoft they'll make the right choice and sell their XBOX and go with PS4 or PC since sony is allowing this game to be a stand alone sub and as far as PC goes,  there nothing more then internet required.

    I like the game as well, but where are you pulling those numbers out of?  Wait, don't tell me.  I think I can smell it.

     

    I guess you must have missed the fact SKYRIM sold over 20 million copies and was number one RPG game for over a year straight.

     

    http://www.gamezone.com/news/2014/01/28/skyrim-breaks-records-with-20-million-copies-sold

     

    You do realize, the majority was sold on console. When you factor in the fact not many console players tend to play MMO's, it puts a huge dent into the numbers.

    Also the fact the game is P2P puts another huge dent into those numbers. Skyrim you didn't have to pay monthly for.

    Now, I am not saying ESO will not do amazingly well, I am just saying your whole proof by using skyrim as a base is not a very accurate way to get your numbers.

    Just cause Skyrim sold over 20 million copies doesn't mean ESO will. Heck, it may not even come close. Around the net, for the most part I have seen more TES fans who are not interested in ESO then those who are interested in it.

    As for the mmo crowd though, I see many who are interested. The MMO crowd though is not all that large (in a single game), and we can't include WoW into that as proof because it only happened once. Meaning the chances of it happening again are fairly low.

    I think the only way another WoW will ever happen is if some company comes along and does something different but so amazing well that it catches attention. ESO ... is good, but it's not exactly ground breaking.

  • rodingorodingo Posts: 2,346Member Uncommon
    I think it's true that this game will gain some intial success by riding on the coattails of Skyrim.  Just how long it will last?  Who knows?  Considering what's coming down the pipe in the form of AAA and indie MMOs over the next 12-18 months or so, and various other factors, my guess is that it won't maintain high numbers for long.  By long I'm guessing around 1-2 years.  All ESO is going to do is increase sales for the next Bethesda (proper) made Elder Scrolls game due to people who are new to the Elder Scrolls games and who played ESO as their first, wanting the real experience as opposed to something that is watered down.

    "If I offended you, you needed it" -Corey Taylor

  • CryptorCryptor Coquitlam, BCPosts: 486Member Uncommon
    There is a lot that can be said about this game, personally;  There has never been an mmorpg that felt so much like an RPG for me.  The best part about ESO is hands down its PvP, I just love ESO PvP.
  • KnotwoodKnotwood Missoula, MTPosts: 1,103Member
    Originally posted by Brabbit1987

    You do realize, the majority was sold on console. When you factor in the fact not many console players tend to play MMO's, it puts a huge dent into the numbers.

    Also the fact the game is P2P puts another huge dent into those numbers. Skyrim you didn't have to pay monthly for.

    Now, I am not saying ESO will not do amazingly well, I am just saying your whole proof by using skyrim as a base is not a very accurate way to get your numbers.

    Just cause Skyrim sold over 20 million copies doesn't mean ESO will. Heck, it may not even come close. Around the net, for the most part I have seen more TES fans who are not interested in ESO then those who are interested in it.

    As for the mmo crowd though, I see many who are interested. The MMO crowd though is not all that large (in a single game), and we can't include WoW into that as proof because it only happened once. Meaning the chances of it happening again are fairly low.

    I think the only way another WoW will ever happen is if some company comes along and does something different but so amazing well that it catches attention. ESO ... is good, but it's not exactly ground breaking.

    I should probably respond to this too.   What was the last AAA MMORPG you seen on XBOX ONE and PS4?   This is the reason most console players do not play MMO's on consoles.   Hell my last console was PS2 because it had two MMORPG's on it.   I completely skipped buying a PS3 because there was no MMORPG titles on it.     This is a game millions on consoles will be starving for!

     

    As far as TES fans go,  its BECAUSE OF TES fans that ESO had to add FIRST PERSON VIEW into the game.   It was such an outrage in early beta, they started to get to know who their BASE was, it was TES FANS.    ESO base fans will be TES fans.

     

    10% of the SKYRIM copies is 2,000,000.   That almost beats out every sub game out there.   40% of SKYRIM copies sold is 8,000,000  which is the current sub number of WoW.   I think this should be pretty obvious how many ESO copies will sell when you add single players to the MMO players.  

  • Gallus85Gallus85 Winter Park, FLPosts: 1,092Member

    I feel ESO will do good financially because it's riding such a big RPG name.  However, the P2P model will eventually be dropped to either F2P or B2P (this is not an insult, it's just a reality check).

    P2P is volatile to a MMORPG's community.  It has too many negative effects and the market is too flooded with high quality F2P games for many gamers to warrant paying $180 a year.

    I also feel a lot of the game's success will rely on how fun the PVP experience is.  When it comes to dev created PVE content, they just can't keep up with the demand.  It's consumed too fast.  So keeping a healthy subscription base in ESO is going to rely on changing their subscription model and making sure high-replay value game play, like PVP, is extremely well done.

    Will ESO be the next insane blockbuster hit to take the world by storm?  Maybe (depends on how many TES fans buy into the MMORPG aspects of ESO).  But it'll be a fun game that should be well worth entry price for any RPG fan.

    Legends of Kesmai, UO, EQ, AO, DAoC, AC, SB, RO, SWG, EVE, EQ2, CoH, GW, VG:SOH, WAR, Aion, DF, CO, MO, DN, Tera, SWTOR, RO2, DP, GW2, PS2, BnS, NW, FF:XIV, ESO, EQ:NL

  • KnotwoodKnotwood Missoula, MTPosts: 1,103Member
    Originally posted by Cryptor
    There is a lot that can be said about this game, personally;  There has never been an mmorpg that felt so much like an RPG for me.  The best part about ESO is hands down its PvP, I just love ESO PvP.

    That's right, this game actually puts the meaning of RPG back into MMORPG, something we all have been waiting for, for a very long time.

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