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TESO, Wildstar, EQN: The Last of the 'Big Budget' MMO's?

13

Comments

  • azzamasinazzamasin Butler, OHPosts: 3,066Member Uncommon
    Hopefully the all encompassing, catering to every gamer, jack of all trades, master of none is coming to an end.  Big budget MMO's have taken what MMO's always meant to me from a place to live in an alternate reality to a Corporate suits emblazoned boardroom to maximize profit.  I want a return to MMO's of yesteryear.  MMO's where the core differences between EQ, AC and UO reigned supreme.  Not some amalgamation of cornucopia with mass appeal over a broad spectrum.  It truly is the only way I'll ever get an MMO that features the things I want out of an MMO, things that haven't been done in tandem since my beloved Asheron's Call.

    Sandbox means open world, non-linear gaming PERIOD!

    Subscription Gaming, especially MMO gaming is a Cash grab bigger then the most P2W cash shop!

    Bring Back Exploration and lengthy progression times. RPG's have always been about the Journey not the destination!!!

    image

  • GillleanGilllean NewYork, ALPosts: 169Member

    NO ESO will be for a very long time first QUESTS and ALL MAPS exploration  WVW far more better than in gw2  that find way to become Vampire of werewolf and other skill lines. NO I think will be intersting .  Also they promises updates every 4 weeks I have read some where and like wow to make expansions with TES lore related. If they will do all that promissed they will keep me there for a long time.

    Still looking forward to see some things fixed by release

  • CazNeergCazNeerg Puyallup, WAPosts: 2,198Member
    Originally posted by Tibernicuspa

    You're right, I should have been more specific.

    Considering no big budget MMO has managed to GROW their subscriber base post launch since 2004... 

    Laying off staff, closing partner studios, merging servers, and going FTP because people won't pay to play your game... yeah that's not a sign of a huge success.

    The importance of growth is relative to where you started.  The size of the MMO playerbase seems to have stabilized, it doesn't appear to be growing the way it was for most of WoW's life to date.  Reports suggest that the number of actual subscriptions in the U.S., to all games combined, is 5.3 million.  When a game is extremely hyped, it tends to sell a couple million copies in it's launch window; that means somewhere between a third and half of all the people in the U.S. who are willing to subscribe to a MMO try a new launch.  Considering how much of that 5.3 million is the people who either never leave or always go back to WoW, that doesn't leave a lot of room for growth.  It's far more reasonable to assume that, when a game launches that big, the numbers are only going to go down.  It's not an indication of failure, it's an indication that there is a hell of a lot more competition for your MMO dollar than there used to be.  Failure is when your revenue drops so far that you no longer turn a profit, and not many big budget games have reached that point.

    Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
    Through passion, I gain strength.
    Through strength, I gain power.
    Through power, I gain victory.
    Through victory, my chains are broken.
    The Force shall free me.

  • TibernicuspaTibernicuspa Amherest, MAPosts: 1,198Member
    Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
    Originally posted by Tibernicuspa
    Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
    Originally posted by Tibernicuspa

    Well considering no big budget MMOs have managed to survive more than a few months, it's safe to say they're dying out.

    Really? Shall I list all those which survived and still exist nowadays, or will you admit you didn't think enough before pressing the "post message" button?

     

    You're right, I should have been more specific.

    Considering no big budget MMO has managed to GROW their subscriber base post launch since 2004...

     

    Laying off staff, closing partner studios, merging servers, and going FTP because people won't pay to play your game... yeah that's not a sign of a huge success.

    Yet games like SW:TOR still make more money than your beloved "EvE". And other games like GW2 are actually recruiting staff despite what the "experts" here think of them.

    Seems like your own reality is very far from the real reality ;)

    Eve has almost 600k subscribers and growing, retaining and playing each month. It also has a much MUCH smaller budget than SWTOR ever had. 

     

    Meanwhile, SWTOR spent about 300-400 million in development, and several dozen more millions in marketing.

    It crashed so hard it had to lay off most of its staff, merge servers, fire its partner companies and founders, rush to be FTP, and sell gimmicks to stay afloat.

    If I was investing in a business, I would invest in the one that is steadily growing, not the one that still hasn't made back its development budget.

  • RusqueRusque Las Vegas, NVPosts: 2,228Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by CazNeerg
    Originally posted by Tibernicuspa

    You're right, I should have been more specific.

    Considering no big budget MMO has managed to GROW their subscriber base post launch since 2004... 

    Laying off staff, closing partner studios, merging servers, and going FTP because people won't pay to play your game... yeah that's not a sign of a huge success.

    The importance of growth is relative to where you started.  The size of the MMO playerbase seems to have stabilized, it doesn't appear to be growing the way it was for most of WoW's life to date.  Reports suggest that the number of actual subscriptions in the U.S., to all games combined, is 5.3 million.  When a game is extremely hyped, it tends to sell a couple million copies in it's launch window; that means somewhere between a third and half of all the people in the U.S. who are willing to subscribe to a MMO try a new launch.  Considering how much of that 5.3 million is the people who either never leave or always go back to WoW, that doesn't leave a lot of room for growth.  It's far more reasonable to assume that, when a game launches that big, the numbers are only going to go down.  It's not an indication of failure, it's an indication that there is a hell of a lot more competition for your MMO dollar than there used to be.  Failure is when your revenue drops so far that you no longer turn a profit, and not many big budget games have reached that point.

    Well, I'm not sure what reports you've been looking at, but let's look at a single set of numbers to compare.

    Blizzard 2013 9-month financial report shows the following:

    9 months ending Sept 30 had $714million in revenues from online subscriptions.

    Now, I'm about to compare apples to oranges here, but it works: Net revenues by geographic region shows Asia Pacific as $242million 9-months ending Sept 30 (that's NET revenues, not just online subscriptions like my first number). And just to put it in persepctive, net revenues for North America was $1.6 billion. Asia makes up only 15% of Blizzard revenues despite many claims by forum posters that all the subs comes from gold farmers. Blatantly false.

    So basically I'm building a worst case scenario for Western online subscriptions.

    $472million is what we're left with. Now, divide that by $15/monthly and you get 31.5 million subscriptions. WAIT! WoW doesn't have 31 million subs! Yes, you are correct! Now relax.

    They also count Warcraft boxes in those sales, licensing, cash shop revenues, and Call of Duty Elite memberships (Cause Activision Blizzard is one compnay).

    But you're claiming that a report said the western market only has 5.3 million subs combined. Well what's 5.3 million subs in money? $79.5 million That's a difference of $392.5million (just from Blizzard alone!)  Blizz states that WoW has something like 7 million subs. Their numbers bear that out quite nicely.

    AND AND AND, these are not complete numbers for 2013, they're just 9 months of revenues. you can expect an additional $200-$300 million in the last quarter (assuming historical data represents any type of trend - which it does).

     

    I'm very curious how the entire western market can have only 5.3 million subs when WoW alone likely surpasses that. Remember, Asia Pacific only makes up 15% of Blizzard revenues (and that's NET revenues - they likely make up an even smaller percentage of online subscriptions). Using the worst case scenario for Western Subs (based on Blizzard alone), We can be fairly close to the mark if we say that WoW has approximately 6 million Western Subs and 1 million Asia Pacific Subs.

    That's one game. This assumes EVE has zero subs. SWTOR has zero subs, etc.

     

  • Jean-Luc_PicardJean-Luc_Picard La BarrePosts: 3,546Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Tibernicuspa

    Eve has almost 600k subscribers and growing...

    Sure. And my grandmother is still alive and dancing tango in buenos aires right now.

    Playing now: WoW, Landmark, GW2, The Crew, SotA

    Top 3 MMORPGs played: UO, AC1 and WoW

    Honorable mentions: AO, LotRO, SW:TOR and GW2.

    ----------------

    "The ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent" - Qui-gon Jinn. After many years of reading Internet forums, there's no doubt that neither does the ability to write.
    So if you notice that I'm no longer answering your nonsense, stop trying... because you just joined my block list.

  • TibernicuspaTibernicuspa Amherest, MAPosts: 1,198Member
    Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
    Originally posted by Tibernicuspa

    Eve has almost 600k subscribers and growing...

    Sure. And my grandmother is still alive and dancing tango in buenos aires right now.

    Time to learn something new!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eve_Online#Subscribers

  • stealthbrstealthbr BrasiliaPosts: 1,053Member
    Originally posted by Tibernicuspa

    Eve has almost 600k subscribers and growing, retaining and playing each month. It also has a much MUCH smaller budget than SWTOR ever had. 

     

    Meanwhile, SWTOR spent about 300-400 million in development, and several dozen more millions in marketing.

    It crashed so hard it had to lay off most of its staff, merge servers, fire its partner companies and founders, rush to be FTP, and sell gimmicks to stay afloat.

    If I was investing in a business, I would invest in the one that is steadily growing, not the one that still hasn't made back its development budget.

    Damn, now TOR cost 300-400 million plus several dozen more millions? It won't be too long before people start saying: "TOR SPENT 1 BILLION IN DEVELOPMENT!!1

  • Jean-Luc_PicardJean-Luc_Picard La BarrePosts: 3,546Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Tibernicuspa
    Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
    Originally posted by Tibernicuspa

    Eve has almost 600k subscribers and growing...

    Sure. And my grandmother is still alive and dancing tango in buenos aires right now.

    Time to learn something new!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eve_Online#Subscribers

    I don't see 600k there, do you? May I lend you my glasses?

     

    Originally posted by stealthbr
    Originally posted by Tibernicuspa

    Eve has almost 600k subscribers and growing, retaining and playing each month. It also has a much MUCH smaller budget than SWTOR ever had. 

     

    Meanwhile, SWTOR spent about 300-400 million in development, and several dozen more millions in marketing.

    It crashed so hard it had to lay off most of its staff, merge servers, fire its partner companies and founders, rush to be FTP, and sell gimmicks to stay afloat.

    If I was investing in a business, I would invest in the one that is steadily growing, not the one that still hasn't made back its development budget.

    Damn, now TOR cost 300-400 million plus several dozen more millions? It won't be too long before people start saying: "TOR SPENT 1 BILLION IN DEVELOPMENT!!1

    Sure, we are getting close to that. And next post, Eve will also have 1 million players.

    Playing now: WoW, Landmark, GW2, The Crew, SotA

    Top 3 MMORPGs played: UO, AC1 and WoW

    Honorable mentions: AO, LotRO, SW:TOR and GW2.

    ----------------

    "The ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent" - Qui-gon Jinn. After many years of reading Internet forums, there's no doubt that neither does the ability to write.
    So if you notice that I'm no longer answering your nonsense, stop trying... because you just joined my block list.

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon santa clara, CAPosts: 22,441Member
    Originally posted by udon
     

    The game genre that players should fear for is the single player offline game.  Companies are looking to online play as a way to both make a game harder to pirate and a way to generate continual revenue post sales with DLC and micro transactions.  Not to mention in game advertising opportunities.  That doesn't mean they will all fill the traditional definition of a MMO but you can bet they will try and call it that if they think it will help sales.

    Why?

    I don't see "harder to pirate" is a bad thing. Always online is also not a bad thing, if the technology is ironed out and there is no bugs. Surely we don't want the server issues as in the D3 launch, but having online cloud saves, cross game chat with friends, auto-upates are all good things (at least for me).

    And what is wrong with DLC? They are no different than smaller, cheaper sequels. I play the Brigmore Witches DLC of Dishonored and it is great.

    Lastly, why would they call it a MMO? It is not like people are coming out in masses to buy MMOs.

  • TibernicuspaTibernicuspa Amherest, MAPosts: 1,198Member
    Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
    Originally posted by Tibernicuspa
    Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
    Originally posted by Tibernicuspa

    Eve has almost 600k subscribers and growing...

    Sure. And my grandmother is still alive and dancing tango in buenos aires right now.

    Time to learn something new!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eve_Online#Subscribers

    I don't see 600k there, do you? May I lend you my glasses?

     

    The most recent press releases stated about 550k. Given the rather steady rise in subs, and that the 550k number was reached about 3-4 months ago, kind of safe to extrapolate, no?

  • kitaradkitarad RomePosts: 1,744Member Uncommon

    Link to recent press release saying 550k please.

    image

  • RusqueRusque Las Vegas, NVPosts: 2,228Member Uncommon

    Dunno about 550k, but here's the "over 500k" release: http://massively.joystiq.com/2013/02/28/eve-online-hits-500-000-subscribers-heads-into-second-decade/

    Although no one ever says anything about the jump in numbers being attributed to the reopening of the Chinese server.

  • ThaneThane berlinPosts: 2,232Member Uncommon
    how could they be the last? WH40k: eternal crusade is in the making too :P

    "I'll never grow up, never grow up, never grow up! Not me!"

  • reeereeereeereee Posts: 1,202Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by stealthbr
    Originally posted by Tibernicuspa

    Eve has almost 600k subscribers and growing, retaining and playing each month. It also has a much MUCH smaller budget than SWTOR ever had. 

     

    Meanwhile, SWTOR spent about 300-400 million in development, and several dozen more millions in marketing.

    It crashed so hard it had to lay off most of its staff, merge servers, fire its partner companies and founders, rush to be FTP, and sell gimmicks to stay afloat.

    If I was investing in a business, I would invest in the one that is steadily growing, not the one that still hasn't made back its development budget.

    Damn, now TOR cost 300-400 million plus several dozen more millions? It won't be too long before people start saying: "TOR SPENT 1 BILLION IN DEVELOPMENT!!1

    I believe he is citing EALouse who said 300 million well before release.  Considering everything else EALouse said was spot on I think it's the most believable number out there.

  • kitaradkitarad RomePosts: 1,744Member Uncommon

    http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility


    Look at this and even on their own forums they say the 500k included trial accounts and that the number was inflated see this thread

    https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=3790066


    Usually it is a multiple of 5 so taking their highest number at 66k it is nowhere near 500k.

    image

  • TibernicuspaTibernicuspa Amherest, MAPosts: 1,198Member
    Originally posted by kitarad

    http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility


    Look at this and even on their own forums they say the 500k included trial accounts and that the number was inflated see this thread

    https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=3790066


    Usually it is a multiple of 5 so taking their highest number at 66k it is nowhere near 500k.

    Somebody is bad at reading information...

    Concurrent users != everyone who is subscribed to the game.

    Concurrent users includes trial numbers.

    Subscribers, which is what the press release was about, includes subscribers, not trials or free plex users.

  • PurutzilPurutzil East Stroudsburg, PAPosts: 2,924Member Uncommon

    Hey look the oblitory "*Titles here*: Last of the Big Budget MMo" threads! How they like to pop up yet are wrong every time!

     

    Its silly to think that. MMos make a lot of profit. Yes,. they will decline in population (so many games, why bother dedicating to one like in the past?) but MMos still make big profits. SWTOR, a game I think many feel wasn't very good has made amazing profits last year with its F2P model cashing in on the "Take advantage of people's gambling addiction" gambit that many Korean F2P Mmos have used in the past to great success. F2P even if a game loses a lot of its population still will tend to get enough suckers to waste hundreds and hundreds of dollars to make up for having less people. Big budget costs more of course but is far more likely to grab people and get people dedicated to spending all that extra money if it goes F2P which can make a killing for money well over the price to create and maintain.

     

    Big Budget MMos are here to stay. The only time I can see them "Vanishing" will be if a big MMO "Crash" occurs, which would likely hurt all MMos, not just big budget ones.

  • GuyClinchGuyClinch Sunnyvale, CAPosts: 485Member

    No.

    The problem with all these kinds of threads is WoW. WoW was a huge finacial success and judging all games to be a failure if they don't match that would lead to no new games ever.

    What you need to look at is invest/rate of return ratios. It doesn't really matter if the game craters after initial release (though obviously you don't want this) or if it goes free to play. (Again you may not want this). You are just looking at the numbers.

    WoW of course is killer - with 50 million investment (initially) and a return of now up to 1 Billion dollars a year. That's an incredible rate of return. But an established publisher doesn't need to see that rate of return to fund future MMOs. Take GW2. It only cost 100 million or so to create. They will say 4 million boxes at 30 dollars (at least) a box - and - thats already 120 million. They make 25 million or so each quarter - for an additional 100 million a year - but 50 million of that is lost to ongoing costs. So in short they likely created a 70% or so rate of return..

    Would you fund an investment with a 70% rate of return? I would. In the PC world MMOs are more profitable - not only do you get the box sales - you get lower levels of piracy - and you get some ongoing revenue. The initial costs are higher - but so is the profit. Until the big companies start really taking a bath expect more big time AAA mmos to be funded.

    Sorry if that doesnt mesh with the all MMOS that I don't like are failing vibe you get from this site. Like another poster said I expect on the PC side most of the big investment is going to MMOs in the future. Its single player games that are on the endangered list. Zenimax could have funded a offline single player game using the Skyrim engine - made by another group (other then Bethesda) but the went the MMO route for more profits.

  • moosecatlolmoosecatlol Boring, TXPosts: 1,171Member Uncommon
    Consider the following: Only one out of three of these mmos is trying to break away from the mold.
  • ElRenmazuoElRenmazuo Alexandria, VAPosts: 4,549Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Foomerang

    Just wait til Rockstar and Ubisoft make their first mmos. 300 million will look like chump change.

    Ubisoft is already looking like they are heading that direction with The Division.  And dont forget Bungie with Destiny.

  • CazNeergCazNeerg Puyallup, WAPosts: 2,198Member
    Originally posted by Rusque

    Well, I'm not sure what reports you've been looking at, but let's look at a single set of numbers to compare.

    Blizzard 2013 9-month financial report shows the following:

    9 months ending Sept 30 had $714million in revenues from online subscriptions.

    Now, I'm about to compare apples to oranges here, but it works: Net revenues by geographic region shows Asia Pacific as $242million 9-months ending Sept 30 (that's NET revenues, not just online subscriptions like my first number). And just to put it in persepctive, net revenues for North America was $1.6 billion. Asia makes up only 15% of Blizzard revenues despite many claims by forum posters that all the subs comes from gold farmers. Blatantly false.

    So basically I'm building a worst case scenario for Western online subscriptions.

    $472million is what we're left with. Now, divide that by $15/monthly and you get 31.5 million subscriptions. WAIT! WoW doesn't have 31 million subs! Yes, you are correct! Now relax.

    They also count Warcraft boxes in those sales, licensing, cash shop revenues, and Call of Duty Elite memberships (Cause Activision Blizzard is one compnay).

    But you're claiming that a report said the western market only has 5.3 million subs combined. Well what's 5.3 million subs in money? $79.5 million That's a difference of $392.5million (just from Blizzard alone!)  Blizz states that WoW has something like 7 million subs. Their numbers bear that out quite nicely.

    AND AND AND, these are not complete numbers for 2013, they're just 9 months of revenues. you can expect an additional $200-$300 million in the last quarter (assuming historical data represents any type of trend - which it does). 

    I'm very curious how the entire western market can have only 5.3 million subs when WoW alone likely surpasses that. Remember, Asia Pacific only makes up 15% of Blizzard revenues (and that's NET revenues - they likely make up an even smaller percentage of online subscriptions). Using the worst case scenario for Western Subs (based on Blizzard alone), We can be fairly close to the mark if we say that WoW has approximately 6 million Western Subs and 1 million Asia Pacific Subs.

    That's one game. This assumes EVE has zero subs. SWTOR has zero subs, etc. 

    I thought WoW's U.S. (to the best of my knowledge, the 5.3 million number was supposed to be just the US, not everything "western") subs had been estimated as being in the 3.5 million range?  If that number is accurate, even if we assume the 500k a piece for EvE and TOR were all from the US, that leaves around 800k to spread around between the other games.  Which, as empty as most of them usually seem, would be entirely plausible.

    I'm not saying the 5.3 million number is necessarily correct.  All I am saying is that it is the only estimate of total U.S. subscribers that I am aware of that is available to the public and comes from a source that is supposedly taken seriously within the industry. (The superdataresearch report)

    Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
    Through passion, I gain strength.
    Through strength, I gain power.
    Through power, I gain victory.
    Through victory, my chains are broken.
    The Force shall free me.

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon santa clara, CAPosts: 22,441Member
    Originally posted by ElRenmazuo
    Originally posted by Foomerang

    Just wait til Rockstar and Ubisoft make their first mmos. 300 million will look like chump change.

    Ubisoft is already looking like they are heading that direction with The Division.  And dont forget Bungie with Destiny.

    I think they have the smarts of not making those games traditional MMOs.

     

  • VengeSunsoarVengeSunsoar Posts: 5,316Member Uncommon
    Neither eve not swtor have 500k just in the west. Last I saw eve was about 1-200k in the west, rest spread out over a couple dozen counties including China. Swtor I've never seen a regional breakdown but you can bet it's still global.

    Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  • ElRenmazuoElRenmazuo Alexandria, VAPosts: 4,549Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by ElRenmazuo
    Originally posted by Foomerang

    Just wait til Rockstar and Ubisoft make their first mmos. 300 million will look like chump change.

    Ubisoft is already looking like they are heading that direction with The Division.  And dont forget Bungie with Destiny.

    I think they have the smarts of not making those games traditional MMOs.

     

    Its the reason im interested in them more than anything else, because they are not traditional mmos.

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