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Originally posted by Rylah Originally posted by Jomsviking The writer of the Forbes article is saying that IF TESO's budget is $200 million, it will not sell 10 million copies and so will not be a success from an investor's point of view.
It doesn't need to sell 10 mio copies even in your example. 2 mio copies + 6 months retention is fine, since devs get, depending on their publishers organisation a larger share of subscription fees than on box sales. Also box sales are indeed as bad in revenue as you say, but the digital download editions you buy from the developer/publisher themselves are near 100% revenue.
I don't have data about how big the physical box share is compared to that of the digital editions but I would guess that the latter are on the rise. And then there are the extra expensive and revenue generating collectors editions of course.
So with 2-3 mio copies sold in a mix and average retention rates they should at least cover the cost.
It will only be problematic when retention is horrible like it was in SWTOR.
The cost of actual creation of the disc and box, and packaging them together is pennies on the dollar. There is little difference in the revenue distribution between digital downloads and boxed copies. Were you aware, for example, that every game designed to run on any Microsoft OS has to pay a royalty fee to Microsoft for every copy sold? There are many hands getting a share of video game sales.
The pie chart shows $27.00 out of $60.00 going to Publisher, which should really be publisher/developer. Another point is that what that shows is the publisher typically gets that portion of the total sale, and then passes on the developer's share to the developer. There is often a very long lag between when the publisher gets the money and then gets around to sending the developer's share on.
Next, no game has ever had 100% retention after launch. Anything over 40% retention a month after launch is considered good. At any rate only a small portion of the sub fee can go towards recovering development costs. By far the greatest portion of sub revenue goes to paying for the servers and ongoing operations costs. Additionally there are ongoing overhead costs. Once again, it is probable that less than 30% of a month's subscription fee can go towards recovering development costs.
The reason so many MMO's now are going to crowd funding to try to get their games developed is not because crowd funding is a better way than through capital investing. It is not. It is actually because investors won't invest in MMOs any more because the perception is that they cannot recover the investment.
When Curt Schilling wanted to start a development studio to create MMO's he couldn't get a single backer in a city with over 200 venture capital firms(Boston). So he sunk the entire $50 million dollar fortune he got from his baseball career and took a $75 million load from the State of Rhode Island on the agreement to move his company to R.I. Curt is now broke, has had to sell his house and baseball memorabilia , the state of R.I. is out $75 million and everyone is suing everyone else.
In the very words of the person who created that article.....
1. He is one of the first wave of journalists to have skipped Printed Media (Lack of experience)
2. He has learned a lot these last few years at Forbes. (How to swing stocks for insider traders)
3. His first MMO was probably SWTOR, because that's his only source sited for his prediction.
4. He's young enough to not know anything about D&D baby boombers and 80s RPG players and what they want in a game.
Why would anyone listen to a kid whos barley had any experience in the MMO world or even been there for the dawn of it. to top it all off.....
HES PART OF THE NEW GAMER GENERATION, NOT THE OLD SCHOOL, WHICH ESO APPEALS TO AND HAS ALL THE CASH!!!!
I'm sure he'll shine someday, but he doesn't have history of MMO behind him and seems has not even bothered to look up or play any game before world or warcraft and SWTOR. I wouldn't trust this guy with my finances for atleast 20 more years.
*****BELOW IS WHAT IS POSTED FOR THE FORBES WRITERS PROFILE******
Paul Tassi Contributor
I think I'm a part of the first generation of journalists to skip print media entirely, and I've learned a lot these last few years at Forbes. My work has appeared on IGN, The Daily Dot, and most importantly, a segment on The Colbert Report at one point. Feel free to follow me on Twitter or circle me on Google+, write me on Facebook or just email at paultassi(at)gmail(dot)com. I also have written two science fiction books, The Last Exodus and The Exiled Earthborn.
Originally posted by Serenes Originally posted by evilastro Originally posted by Toxia http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2014/01/02/predicting-the-biggest-disaster-of-2014-the-elder-scrolls-online/ Thoughts?
I agree about the payment model. Especially when targeting console gamers. I don't think many would tolerate monthly fees and would rather buy updates as DLC.
This one is definitely going F2P / B2P down the track. Wildstar might sustain a sub fee as it is targeting the WoW raiding demographic specifically.
Did I miss where console gamers have been paying $9.99 to play xbox live or did they change that?
For live they have 60 dollar year subs.
PSN is 50 dollars a year.
I don't know monthly but that there is a great sub price IMO.
I might get banned for this. - Rizel Star.
I'm not afraid to tell trolls what they [need] to hear, even if that means for me to have an forced absence afterwards.
P2P LOGIC = If it's P2P it means longevity, overall better game, and THE BEST SUPPORT EVER!!!!!(Which has been rinsed and repeated about a thousand times)
Common Sense Logic = P2P logic is no better than F2P Logic.
A new subscription based MMO in the 2014 market ?
Dead on arrival.
Or better said: dead on arrival + 2 months.
What idiots are behind these decisions ?
Originally posted by sportsfan A new subscription based MMO in the 2014 market ? Dead on arrival. Or better said: dead on arrival + 2 months. What idiots are behind these decisions ?
It is the better payment model. The problem is that these games are not built to last. They are wow clones built to max level in weeks to do 5 dungeons over and over. It didn't work the last 20 times and won't work going forward.
Originally posted by ENTR0PY They aren't a gaming site. They are site for gramps buying gold and stocks.
Forbes is not a dedicated gaming site but they've been reporting on gaming for the last 5 years
Kickstarter: Stuff I'm supporting
I think you probably missed it yes.
If you haven't checked out how console game charging works essentially it is more like an all access pass than a sub - with free or cheaper games thrown in along with other stuff. Depends on the price level.
Bottomline: On consoles $15 a month will be a lot more for a lot less. And for a single game at that.
Essentially console works like sub based games used to. A charge for the service and then pay for content. That is how EQ1 say worked.
The sub = content approach was only introduced in response to people questioning the validity of the service charge. Server / network charges were falling but the sub wasn't. Rather than ditch the sub games like CoH and WoW trumpted the idea that you wouldn't need to buy xpacs every 6 months - they were trying to get UO and EQ1 players of course. In time, needless to say, paid expansions returned.
A sub is a tough sell on PCs these days - and rightly so imo; get rid of the subscription freeloaders! On consoles I agree that it will be a very tough sell indeed.
"Everything is mine and your woman too"
Originally posted by Zzulu I will not buy the game until it changes the payment system, so I agree with the article somewhat
Yep, i really want ISO level microtransactions as well. Wow a new zone...wait, won't let me in until i PAY FOR IT!
New raid, all the guild want to go...wait, I have to go get my credit card before it can go....
Modern MT's are becoming really really awful as games companies try to milk more from their cows, a subs fee with all-in content and no hidden fees is far preferrable for me.
Expresso gave me a Hearthstone beta key.....I'm so happy
Originally posted by Zinzan Originally posted by Zzulu I will not buy the game until it changes the payment system, so I agree with the article somewhat
I don't know any F2P mmo that works that way ... so have no idea what you are talking about. XD
Every F2P game I ever played, I was always able to get pretty much full access to all areas, zones, or raids.
Though it does show your ignorance on what a F2P mmo is.
If you are going to bash the F2P model .. at least use something that is true.
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
Now playing GW2, AOW 3, ESO, LOTR, Elite D
While it'll be sad to see an IP like TES get the SWTOR treatment, I think it's necessary for the industry to progress.
The sooner it goes F2P and the hivemind casuals leave after their free month, the better.
Originally posted by C1d0s While it'll be sad to see an IP like TES get the SWTOR treatment, I think it's necessary for the industry to progress. The sooner it goes F2P and the hivemind casuals leave after their free month, the better.
If game doesn't meet expectations, better let it die, than going F2P. Shut it down, put finger at head and then think what went wrong. It's easy to go F2P, but hard to make game worth money.
I particularly found this part of the article insightful:
The Elder Scrolls. The series has first and foremost always been the quintessential single player game. You, the hero, explore a vast countryside, taking on quests and saving the day. I don’t think many players ever stopped and thought “This would be so much better with 50 other versions of me running around with names above their heads.”
Originally posted by Rhazmuz So many breaking NDA, hope they never get into a beta again!
I will adhere to the NDA. But really, the NDA has to go. Now.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
You mean like P2P games and their DLC Xpacs? What's that $15 for anyway? Please do go on about how servers cost $200/yr per person, it equals a higher quality community (like in WoW), and you get constant updates (like in EVE or WoW every 2 years).
I have seen this countless times before, many many times. The fear mongoring and "will it fail" endless arguments. The game will release and not meet expectations, because let's be frank, nothing is perfect. Everyone will get angry and say the game was a failure, the cycle repeats itself.
I have seen it with over 10 MMOs since 2005 and the same will happen all over again. Why? Because everyones expectations are too high, the sea of fish is flooded with trolls and people who instead of voicing their concern, just want to see everything fail and never have any hope of getting anywhere.
I really feel like abandoning the MMO genre.
Originally posted by FearGX I have seen this countless times before, many many times. The fear mongoring and "will it fail" endless arguments. The game will release and not meet expectations, because let's be frank, nothing is perfect. Everyone will get angry and say the game was a failure, the cycle repeats itself. I have seen it with over 10 MMOs since 2005 and the same will happen all over again. Why? Because everyones expectations are too high, the sea of fish is flooded with trolls and people who instead of voicing their concern, just want to see everything fail and never have any hope of getting anywhere. I really feel like abandoning the MMO genre.
Hang in there FearGX we are not all fear mongoring doomsayers!
Any time anyone says the smallest negative thing about a game, suddenly the trolls, board warriors and fanboys calls them doomsayers that want the game to fail while going on long tirades about how they are going to abandon the genre over it. Maybe even going so far as to call them whiners while doing it.........
"People who tell you youre awesome are useless. No, dangerous.
They are worse than useless because you want to believe them. They will defend you against critiques that are valid. They will seduce you into believing you are done learning, or into thinking that your work is better than it actually is." ~Raph Koster http://www.raphkoster.com/2013/10/14/on-getting-criticism/
I just dumped all my stock, cause "experts" like Forbes do not have a clue.
Waiting on Zenimax to go Public.
I'm not surprised.
From what I've seen of TESO, it suffers from the same problem SWTOR, War and LOTRO suffered from before it. That is that the developers took a checklist of bog standard MMO mechanics and tried to wrap the TES franchise around them. What, imho, they should have done is start with the core mechanics and elements of the TES franchise and built those forward to being workable in a massive online environment.
TESO will not last as a sub game, and ZMO have made several huge mistakes. Developers and publishers need to LEARN, or the genre will continue to stagnate.