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Forbes Predicting Biggest Disaster of 2014

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  • xerrixerri Member Posts: 30
    Originally posted by thunderC
    I agree 100% with whoever wrote this forbes article. Elder Scrolls series has been one of my favorites over the past 10 years and has always been my "offline MMO" so to speak. I have never once had the desire or said to myself while playing skyrim " I wish 50 other live players were in the game with me " . 

     

    You'll be able to play solo  or tackle much larger challenges with a group if you like.  In all the other Elder Scrolls games I accomplished what I wanted to  looking for ward to doing MORE with MORE players  to enjoy a LARGER experience.

    To many narsistic people that want to live in the past

    image
  • RampajiRampaji Member Posts: 50

    Normally i dont swear that much.

     

    But F oooo OOO K  Forbes opinion and every else including my opinion.

     

    If you are having fun with what ever game you play. HAVE FUN! :)

     

    If you dont like. play something else, but spare the rest of us with your whining! ;)

    I still like you anyway. ;)

     

     

    thats my humble opinion.

     

    Be good do good

    Be the change you want to see in the world.

    - Mahatma Gandhi

  • laokokolaokoko Member UncommonPosts: 2,004

    I think they over spent, if they actually spent 200million$ already.

    They probably can recover the cost.  I just don't know if they can maintain the upkeep.  So they most likely will have to cut staff a few month after release.

  • PigglesworthPigglesworth Member UncommonPosts: 260
    Originally posted by laokoko

    I think they over spent, if they actually spent 200million$ already.

    They probably can recover the cost.  I just don't know if they can maintain the upkeep.  So they most likely will have to cut staff a few month after release.

    Staff always get cut after release. The staff needed for upkeep, even expansions, is much less than full development. Of course, when this happens, the haters on this board will claim the game is a total failure because they cut staff after launch.

    @PigglesworthTWR on Twitter

    Pigglesworth @ EQNForum.com, MMORPG.com, EQNextfans.com, ProjectNorrath.com, & EQNFanSite.com

    Malcontent @ EQNexus.com & EQHammer.com

  • WabbaWayWabbaWay Member Posts: 101
    Originally posted by Toxia

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2014/01/02/predicting-the-biggest-disaster-of-2014-the-elder-scrolls-online/

     

    Thoughts?

    I just facepalmed myself repeatedly while reading this article. His entire prediction is based on nothing but a tweet from Kotaku (that he can't even prove existed in the first place) and that people doesn't like the ESO brand enough to pay a sub price for it.

     

    Not a single word about the gameplay, not one that made it seem like the writer knew what he was talking about anyway. People play a MMO (and all games in general) because it's fun, not because they like the brand (atleast not the majority of gamers).

     

    Heh, here I am, defending a game I don't give a damn about - but the article is just that bad.

    image
  • IselinIselin Member LegendaryPosts: 18,719

    Considering the length of this thread and similar threads at other ESO discusion sites, this bit from the Forbe's Wikipedia page about their website made me laugh:

     

    The website also uses a "contributor model" in which a wide network of "contributors" writes and publishes articles directly on the website. Contributors are paid based on traffic to their Forbes.com pages

     

    The pointy-headed dweeb who writes that blog thanks you...say, you don't suppose he's being deliberately edgy and controversial, do you? image

     

    Starting to feel like you've been had yet?

    "Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”

    ― Umberto Eco

    “Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” 
    ― CD PROJEKT RED

  • Psion33Psion33 Member Posts: 248

    Just more sandbox drivel for the sandbox fanbois.

     

    No one really cares about this game...its the idea of subbing to the first real major sandbox.

     

    Don't give a dog a bone.

  • Psion33Psion33 Member Posts: 248
    Originally posted by Ppiper
    Originally posted by Iselin

    Considering the length of this thread and similar threads at other ESO discusion sites, this bit from the Forbe's Wikipedia page about their website made me laugh:

     

    The website also uses a "contributor model" in which a wide network of "contributors" writes and publishes articles directly on the website. Contributors are paid based on traffic to their Forbes.com pages

     

    The pointy-headed dweeb who writes that blog thanks you...say, you don't suppose he's being deliberately edgy and controversial, do you? image

     

    Starting to feel like you've been had yet?

    pretty fucked up if you ask me.

     

    Why, cause you may have added to their pockets? You don't deserve a penny of anyone else's money.

  • IselinIselin Member LegendaryPosts: 18,719
    Originally posted by Psion33

    Just more sandbox drivel for the sandbox fanbois.

     

    No one really cares about this game...its the idea of subbing to the first real major sandbox.

     

    Don't give a dog a bone.

    I'm thinking you've just woken up from a 2 year coma... welcome back!

     

    (PS. ESO is not a sandbox)

    "Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”

    ― Umberto Eco

    “Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” 
    ― CD PROJEKT RED

  • Psion33Psion33 Member Posts: 248
    Originally posted by Iselin
    Originally posted by Psion33

    Just more sandbox drivel for the sandbox fanbois.

     

    No one really cares about this game...its the idea of subbing to the first real major sandbox.

     

    Don't give a dog a bone.

    I'm thinking you've just woken up from a 2 year coma... welcome back!

     

    (PS. ESO is not a sandbox)

     

    I quoted the wrong message. I was reading a post about Camelot Unchained...must have been different browser window LOL.

  • SpeelySpeely Member CommonPosts: 861
    Yeah this was a pretty funny write-up. Riding that train, getting those hits. Easy money and horrible journalism. Also: Forbes. April gon be good. /popcorn.gif
  • Psion33Psion33 Member Posts: 248
    Originally posted by PerfArt
    Yeah this was a pretty funny write-up. Riding that train, getting those hits. Easy money and horrible journalism. Also: Forbes. April gon be good. /popcorn.gif

     

    I truly wonder how many F2P gamers will/did get butt hurt for lining that Forbes writer's pocket.

     

    Lol. The irony. It's thick.

  • evilastroevilastro Member Posts: 4,270
    Originally posted by Toxia

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2014/01/02/predicting-the-biggest-disaster-of-2014-the-elder-scrolls-online/

     

    Thoughts?

     

    I agree about the payment model.  Especially when targeting console gamers.  I don't think many would tolerate monthly fees and would rather buy updates as DLC.

    This one is definitely going F2P / B2P down the track.  Wildstar might sustain a sub fee as it is targeting the WoW raiding demographic specifically.

  • jdnycjdnyc Member UncommonPosts: 1,643
    Originally posted by Iselin

    Considering the length of this thread and similar threads at other ESO discusion sites, this bit from the Forbe's Wikipedia page about their website made me laugh:

     

    The website also uses a "contributor model" in which a wide network of "contributors" writes and publishes articles directly on the website. Contributors are paid based on traffic to their Forbes.com pages

     

    The pointy-headed dweeb who writes that blog thanks you...say, you don't suppose he's being deliberately edgy and controversial, do you? image

     

    Starting to feel like you've been had yet?

    Excellent.  Someone whom understands how things work with websites.  

  • KenFisherKenFisher Member UncommonPosts: 5,035
    Originally posted by Iselin 

    Starting to feel like you've been had yet?

     

    If it weren't for Lok poking me to look further into what the blogging system was all about, I'd still be thinking this was a Forbes business article.

     

    I find it beyond surprising that Forbes runs a blogging system as a revenue stream.

     


    Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now working in Network Security.  I don't Forum PVP.  If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident.  When I don't understand, I ask.  Such is not intended as criticism.
  • DanitaKusorDanitaKusor Member UncommonPosts: 556
    Since it is very likely that I'll be losing my job in March after my company was bought out (and my role is very unlikely to need duplicating) I agree that the subscription fee for ESO is going to be a big stumbling block for me vs. another game that is f2p or b2p (e.g. Guild Wars 2) especially as it is on top of a purchase of a game anyway.  So for me, the article is spot on. P2P is going to probably stop me playing ESO unless it is the most amazing game of all time (which I don't think it is based on previews I've seen so far).

    The Enlightened take things Lightly

  • SerenesSerenes Member UncommonPosts: 351
    Originally posted by evilastro
    Originally posted by Toxia

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2014/01/02/predicting-the-biggest-disaster-of-2014-the-elder-scrolls-online/

     

    Thoughts?

     

    I agree about the payment model.  Especially when targeting console gamers.  I don't think many would tolerate monthly fees and would rather buy updates as DLC.

    This one is definitely going F2P / B2P down the track.  Wildstar might sustain a sub fee as it is targeting the WoW raiding demographic specifically.

    Did I miss where console gamers have been paying $9.99 to play xbox live or did they change that?

  • JomsvikingJomsviking Member Posts: 32
    Originally posted by Rylah
    Originally posted by Jomsviking

    The writer of the Forbes article is saying that IF TESO's budget is $200 million, it will not sell 10 million copies and so will not be a success from an investor's point of view.

    It doesn't need to sell 10 mio copies even in your example. 2 mio copies + 6 months retention is fine, since devs get, depending on their publishers organisation a larger share of subscription fees than on box sales. Also box sales are indeed as bad in revenue as you say, but the digital download editions you buy from the developer/publisher themselves are near 100% revenue.

    I don't have data about how big the physical box share is compared to that of the digital editions but I would guess that the latter are on the rise. And then there are the extra expensive and revenue generating collectors editions of course.

    So with 2-3 mio copies sold in a mix and average retention rates they should at least cover the cost.

    It will only be problematic when retention is horrible like it was in SWTOR.

    The cost of actual creation of the disc and box, and packaging  them together is pennies on the dollar. There is little difference in the revenue distribution between digital downloads and boxed copies. Were you aware, for example, that every game designed to run on any Microsoft OS has to pay a royalty fee to Microsoft for every copy sold? There are many hands getting a share of video game sales.

    http://kotaku.com/5479698/what-your-60-really-buys

    The pie chart shows $27.00 out of $60.00 going to Publisher, which should really be publisher/developer. Another point is that what that shows is the publisher typically gets that portion of the total sale, and then passes on the developer's share to the developer. There is often a very long lag between when the publisher gets the money and then gets around to sending the developer's share on.

    Next, no game has ever had 100% retention after launch. Anything over 40% retention a month after launch is considered good. At any rate only a small portion of the sub fee can go towards recovering development costs. By far the greatest portion of sub revenue goes to paying for the servers and ongoing operations costs. Additionally there are ongoing overhead costs. Once again, it is probable that less than 30% of a month's subscription fee can go towards recovering development costs.

    The reason so many MMO's now are going to crowd funding to try to get their games developed is not because crowd funding is a better way than through capital investing. It is not. It is actually because investors won't invest in MMOs any more because the perception is that they cannot recover the investment.

    When Curt Schilling wanted to start a development studio to create MMO's he couldn't get a single backer in a city with over 200 venture capital firms(Boston). So he sunk the entire $50 million dollar fortune he got from his baseball career and took a $75 million load from the State of Rhode Island on the agreement to move his company to R.I. Curt is now broke, has had to sell his house and baseball memorabilia , the state of R.I. is out $75 million and everyone is suing everyone else.

  • fistormfistorm Member UncommonPosts: 868

    In the very words of the person who created that article.....

     

    1.  He is one of the first wave of journalists to have skipped Printed Media (Lack of experience)

    2.  He has learned a lot these last few years at Forbes. (How to swing stocks for insider traders)

    3.  His first MMO was probably SWTOR, because that's his only source sited for his prediction.

    4.  He's young enough to not know anything about D&D baby boombers and 80s RPG players and what they want in a game.

     

     

    Why would anyone listen to a kid whos barley had any experience in the MMO world or even been there for the dawn of it.  to top it all off.....

     

    HES PART OF THE NEW GAMER GENERATION, NOT THE OLD SCHOOL, WHICH ESO APPEALS TO AND HAS ALL THE CASH!!!!  

     

    I'm sure he'll shine someday, but he doesn't have history of MMO behind him and seems has not even bothered to look up or play any game before world or warcraft and SWTOR.    I wouldn't trust this guy with my finances for atleast 20 more years.

     

     

     *****BELOW IS WHAT IS POSTED FOR THE FORBES WRITERS PROFILE******

     

    Paul Tassi Contributor

     

     

    I think I'm a part of the first generation of journalists to skip print media entirely, and I've learned a lot these last few years at Forbes. My work has appeared on IGN, The Daily Dot, and most importantly, a segment on The Colbert Report at one point. Feel free to follow me on Twitter or circle me on Google+, write me on Facebook or just email at paultassi(at)gmail(dot)com. I also have written two science fiction books, The Last Exodus and The Exiled Earthborn.

     

    ********************************************************************************************************************************************
  • ENTR0PYENTR0PY Member UncommonPosts: 62
    That useless site has no idea what they are talking about. They aren't a gaming site. They are site for gramps buying gold and stocks.
  • RizelStarRizelStar Member UncommonPosts: 2,773
    Originally posted by Serenes
    Originally posted by evilastro
    Originally posted by Toxia

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2014/01/02/predicting-the-biggest-disaster-of-2014-the-elder-scrolls-online/

     

    Thoughts?

     

    I agree about the payment model.  Especially when targeting console gamers.  I don't think many would tolerate monthly fees and would rather buy updates as DLC.

    This one is definitely going F2P / B2P down the track.  Wildstar might sustain a sub fee as it is targeting the WoW raiding demographic specifically.

    Did I miss where console gamers have been paying $9.99 to play xbox live or did they change that?

    For live they have 60 dollar year subs.

    PSN is 50 dollars a year.

    I don't know monthly but that there is a great sub price IMO.

     

    I might get banned for this. - Rizel Star.

    I'm not afraid to tell trolls what they [need] to hear, even if that means for me to have an forced absence afterwards.

    P2P LOGIC = If it's P2P it means longevity, overall better game, and THE BEST SUPPORT EVER!!!!!(Which has been rinsed and repeated about a thousand times)

    Common Sense Logic = P2P logic is no better than F2P Logic.

  • sportsfansportsfan Member Posts: 431

    A new subscription based MMO in the 2014 market ? 

    Dead on arrival.

    Or better said: dead on arrival + 2 months.

    What idiots are behind these decisions ?

  • shadow9d9shadow9d9 Member UncommonPosts: 374
    Originally posted by sportsfan

    A new subscription based MMO in the 2014 market ? 

    Dead on arrival.

    Or better said: dead on arrival + 2 months.

    What idiots are behind these decisions ?

    It is the better payment model.  The problem is that these games are not built to last.  They are wow clones built to max level in weeks to do 5 dungeons over and over.  It didn't work the last 20 times and won't work going forward.

  • NadiaNadia Member UncommonPosts: 11,798
    Originally posted by ENTR0PY
    They aren't a gaming site. They are site for gramps buying gold and stocks.

    Forbes is not a dedicated gaming site but they've been reporting on gaming for the last 5 years

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/games/

     

  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919
    Originally posted by Serenes
    Originally posted by evilastro
    Originally posted by Toxia

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2014/01/02/predicting-the-biggest-disaster-of-2014-the-elder-scrolls-online/

     

    Thoughts?

     

    I agree about the payment model.  Especially when targeting console gamers.  I don't think many would tolerate monthly fees and would rather buy updates as DLC.

    Did I miss where console gamers have been paying $9.99 to play xbox live or did they change that?

    I think you probably missed it yes.

    If you haven't checked out how console game charging works essentially it is more like an all access pass than a sub - with free or cheaper games thrown in along with other stuff. Depends on the price level.

    Bottomline: On consoles $15 a month will be a lot more for a lot less. And for a single game at that.

    Essentially console works like sub based games used to. A charge for the service and then pay for content. That is how EQ1 say worked.

    The sub = content approach was only introduced in response to people questioning the validity of the service charge. Server / network charges were falling but the sub wasn't. Rather than ditch the sub games like CoH and WoW trumpted the idea that you wouldn't need to buy xpacs every 6 months - they were trying to get UO and EQ1 players of course. In time, needless to say, paid expansions returned.

    A sub is a tough sell on PCs these days - and rightly so imo; get rid of the subscription freeloaders! On consoles I agree that it will be a very tough sell indeed.

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