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Forbes Predicting Biggest Disaster of 2014

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  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Member RarePosts: 14,247
    Originally posted by ZombieKen
    Originally posted by Loktofeit
     

    Get informed. Read about a writer and actually read their work before slapping at keys to suggest they have an unethical agenda or are on the take. ZombieKen, you're not a Millenial. You know how to do research. That post was below you. 

    Editorials always have an agenda, that's why they are printed as opinion pieces rather than news.  On investment sites, that agenda tends to be related to corporate investing. 

    The push is pretty clear. "Predicting The Biggest Video Game Disaster Of 2014: The Elder Scrolls Online"  The guy is supporting the prediction that the game will be a disaster. 

    ZOMG, Zenimax spent 200 million on this game image  It's going to fail.

    The article makes Zenimax looks unwise for making a heavy investment, and implies that the game will be another SWTOR.  The article running on an investment site implies a connection to stocks.

    The OP asked why would he do this?

    I think my conclusion is reasonable speculation.  Editorial journalist scaremongers investors with current or potential interest in companies in the gaming industry.  From my perspective, it looks rather obvious.

     

    If we are going to completely ignore history and everything else ever written by this journalist then I completely agree, someone who doesn't know squat about the author, the Forbes blog section or the industry in general could view this one piece in a vacuum and reasonably conclude said speculation.

    Such a person should definitely start reading the Hardy Boys and Nancy Drew, as they'd come across as amazingly epic tales of incredible sorcery. Encyclopedia Brown would blow their mind. 

     

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • PyukPyuk Member UncommonPosts: 762
    Spot-on article, imo. The only thing I'd argue is that Elder Scrolls players have been wanting a multiplayer component for quite some time. Zenimax would have been better off putting their money into a multiplayer component to their next Elder Scrolls game, rather than this half-baked ESO that's headed for the proverbial iceberg.

    I make spreadsheets at work - I don't want to make them for the games I play.

  • ukforzeukforze Member Posts: 331

    Regardless of all the above, it doesn't help when the likes of forbes start doom mongering.

    I stopped taking notice of things like this it does no good as do a lot of forums including

    this one, to much doom mongering & talk of evil devs & their quest to ruin the world.

     

    Is it any wonder some games fail before release?

    Im not saying this game will be an exception but still for an article to be titled

    "Predicting Biggest Disaster of 2014" what sort of an article is that?

    They should be ashamed tbh, it's all headline snatching bs

    The Deathstar destroyed planets...Lucas Arts destroyed Galaxies

    ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
    Played:
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  • FinalFikusFinalFikus Member Posts: 906
    How can a business model change save it if it isn't doomed? Saviors can do pretty much anything.

    "If the Damned gave you a roadmap, then you'd know just where to go"

  • MargulisMargulis Member CommonPosts: 1,614
    Originally posted by DocBrody

    It will be a lot better than SWTOR for sure, that can be seen easily from gameplay footage already, so it won´t fail as hard as SWTOR.

     

    No one can beat the level of fail that SWTOR was, not even TESO. But it will switch to buy to play and paid DLCs soon after launch, probably similiar to TSW which is running great now and has lots of players.

    I agree - there is 0% chance it can fail as bad as SWTOR did, because despite being fairly generic in a lot of ways the world actually feels alive and presents a nice atmosphere to play in.  And despite the negativity for being generic, it does do MOST of that generic stuff pretty well at least.  Plus people on the beta forums have been raving about the pvp even though I could care less about that.

  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Member RarePosts: 14,247
    Originally posted by ukforze

    Regardless of all the above, it doesn't help when the likes of forbes start doom mongering.

    I stopped taking notice of things like this it does no good as do a lot of forums including

    this one, to much doom mongering & talk of evil devs & their quest to ruin the world.

     

    Is it any wonder some games fail before release?

    Im not saying this game will be an exception but still for an article to be titled

    "Predicting Biggest Disaster of 2014" what sort of an article is that?

    They should be ashamed tbh, it's all headline snatching bs

    I am curious if Forbes is aware how much some of these blogs affect their brand simply because people consider them "a Forbes article". The name Forbes seems to give undue weight to what is basically just a blogger that happens to write on their site. 

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • LittleBootLittleBoot Member Posts: 326

    The article almost precisely reflects my opinions on the game; my over-riding response to ESO being 'why?'

    I can't see the market for this game (admittedly I will probably end up trying it).  Anyone who has played Skyrim (or earlier) will be aware that it does not translate into an mmo, so all you can possible end up with is a generic mmo selling itself on a popular IP, and I don't really think anyone wants any more of those.  

  • CrazKanukCrazKanuk Member EpicPosts: 6,130
    Originally posted by Pyuk
    Spot-on article, imo. The only thing I'd argue is that Elder Scrolls players have been wanting a multiplayer component for quite some time. Zenimax would have been better off putting their money into a multiplayer component to their next Elder Scrolls game, rather than this half-baked ESO that's headed for the proverbial iceberg.

     

    It's this type of baseless speculation makes for great gloom and doom articles. What makes you think, at all, that this game will not stay true to the lore. It's not like they're bringing in a company unfamiliar with the IP to create the game, these are the people who hold all the lore for the games, who have had to develop and adhere to the lore for all previous games. So basically, assuming that they're just going to abandon lore they've remained true to for the entire series is ridiculous. 

     

    Really no difference with the author of the article, though. I see very little knowledge of the series, or even MMOs in general, and even admits it. I really doubt that the barrier to entry is going to discourage all that many players. They may even go as far as to offset the negative stigma around the who subscription somehow (maybe offer 3 months with the game purchase). Also, his SWTOR example only serves to support big budget, big IP games. With something like 2 million box sales and a decent sell-through on the subscription, why wouldn't you spend the money? Skyrim sold like 15 million copies across all platforms, so I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that they could do 4-5 million boxes for TESO as a conservative number. After that, it's all about keeping people subscribed. Even if they don't, though, SWTOR has shown that the F2P/SUB combo works, even if it is a bit of "bankruptcy a penny at a time" at times with the cash shop, it shows that it's viable. Whether it's a success on console or not on console, I don't think, is a major concern. As long as they've built in contingency plans, they can probably get back a large chunk of their money at launch and then it will trickle in from there. 

    Crazkanuk

    ----------------
    Azarelos - 90 Hunter - Emerald
    Durnzig - 90 Paladin - Emerald
    Demonicron - 90 Death Knight - Emerald Dream - US
    Tankinpain - 90 Monk - Azjol-Nerub - US
    Brindell - 90 Warrior - Emerald Dream - US
    ----------------

  • aslan132aslan132 Member UncommonPosts: 619

    I agree with the premise, even if not all the reasons. As someone who has actually played the game, I think its in desperate need of attention, and it wont be anywhere near ready in April. I cant go into details, but if they rush the game to make a deadline, of course its doomed to fail. 

     

    That being said, I love the game. I would play it, except that its subscription. The worst decision by far they have made, with the release date being second. The game has some interesting points, but releasing a game with broken, missing, and otherwise unplayable gameplay has always been a mistake. Its nothing new to MMOs, but its a mistake they should be learning from, not copying. Im sure ZOS is getting pressured to release, but thats no excuse. WildStar for example is months ahead of them in developement as far as completed content and polish, and they havent even nailed down a release date. 

     

    For ESO to do anything other than fail miserably, they need to remove the release date, and actually finish and polish the game. Otherwise, I agree, they are doomed before launch. Huge mistake ZOS. 

  • MargulisMargulis Member CommonPosts: 1,614
    Seems the main point he keeps going to over and over in his post is about the subscription model - almost seems like a personal hatred towards that model at times looking at the tone of his comments.  Keeps talking about how there are no successful subscription models anymore - yeah right, ARR is doing very very well.
  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Member CommonPosts: 10,910


    Originally posted by Loktofeit
    Originally posted by lizardbones Originally posted by DamonVile Originally posted by Loktofeit  
    Console gamers have nothing to do with it.  The MMO gamer pre-ordered their game, paid extra to play it before it was released, shelled out for the CE, and agreed to a monthly fee. To add insult to injury, they willing paid for the expansions, too. The MMO gamer has time and again told the industry "I have no familiarity with history, no concept of the difference between hope and reality, and absolutely no end to my wallet if you tell me over and over the words that I want to hear - that the game is made for me, that the features will revolutionize gaming, and that it is all based on my personal feedback."   After all, that is exactly how the past three years of MMOs have been sold, and it is the entire sales pitch for the Steam Early Access games, all of which start with "get involved with this game as it develops." Why? Because the buying patterns of the PC gamer have proven for well over a decade that there's money in doing it.  
    But it's 100% the devs fault. They should be better people and just know the customer has no self control.
    Why?  
    Do you really think Damonvile was serious, lizard? ;) 

     




    Argh. I cannot keep up with the people who are always being serious and saying what they mean from the people who always use satire or the people who are always sarcastic. It's too much.

    So, how about that Encyclopedia Brown? I think his most awesome case was witnessing a schoolyard fight in 4th grade and staying calm enough to notice that the boy who got punched in the chest didn't get his glasses broken, thus Solving The Case!

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • DamonVileDamonVile Member UncommonPosts: 4,818
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by Loktofeit

    Originally posted by lizardbones

    Originally posted by DamonVile

    Originally posted by Loktofeit

     
    Console gamers have nothing to do with it.  The MMO gamer pre-ordered their game, paid extra to play it before it was released, shelled out for the CE, and agreed to a monthly fee. To add insult to injury, they willing paid for the expansions, too. The MMO gamer has time and again told the industry "I have no familiarity with history, no concept of the difference between hope and reality, and absolutely no end to my wallet if you tell me over and over the words that I want to hear - that the game is made for me, that the features will revolutionize gaming, and that it is all based on my personal feedback."   After all, that is exactly how the past three years of MMOs have been sold, and it is the entire sales pitch for the Steam Early Access games, all of which start with "get involved with this game as it develops." Why? Because the buying patterns of the PC gamer have proven for well over a decade that there's money in doing it.  
    But it's 100% the devs fault. They should be better people and just know the customer has no self control.
    Why?  
    Do you really think Damonvile was serious, lizard? ;) 

     

     



    Argh. I cannot keep up with the people who are always being serious and saying what they mean from the people who always use satire or the people who are always sarcastic. It's too much.

    So, how about that Encyclopedia Brown? I think his most awesome case was witnessing a schoolyard fight in 4th grade and staying calm enough to notice that the boy who got punched in the chest didn't get his glasses broken, thus Solving The Case!

     

    lol. dry humor and overly sarcastic are things I get accused of all the time :) It never translates well into text.

  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Member RarePosts: 14,247
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by Loktofeit

    Originally posted by lizardbones

    Originally posted by DamonVile

    Originally posted by Loktofeit

     
    Console gamers have nothing to do with it.  The MMO gamer pre-ordered their game, paid extra to play it before it was released, shelled out for the CE, and agreed to a monthly fee. To add insult to injury, they willing paid for the expansions, too. The MMO gamer has time and again told the industry "I have no familiarity with history, no concept of the difference between hope and reality, and absolutely no end to my wallet if you tell me over and over the words that I want to hear - that the game is made for me, that the features will revolutionize gaming, and that it is all based on my personal feedback."   After all, that is exactly how the past three years of MMOs have been sold, and it is the entire sales pitch for the Steam Early Access games, all of which start with "get involved with this game as it develops." Why? Because the buying patterns of the PC gamer have proven for well over a decade that there's money in doing it.  
    But it's 100% the devs fault. They should be better people and just know the customer has no self control.
    Why?  
    Do you really think Damonvile was serious, lizard? ;) 

    Argh. I cannot keep up with the people who are always being serious and saying what they mean from the people who always use satire or the people who are always sarcastic. It's too much.

    So, how about that Encyclopedia Brown? I think his most awesome case was witnessing a schoolyard fight in 4th grade and staying calm enough to notice that the boy who got punched in the chest didn't get his glasses broken, thus Solving The Case!

     

    There was one about a Civil War sword that blew my mind because the answer was obvious and I completely missed it.  

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • JJ82JJ82 Member UncommonPosts: 1,258
    Originally posted by DocBrody

    It will be a lot better than SWTOR for sure, that can be seen easily from gameplay footage already, so it won´t fail as hard as SWTOR.

    SWTOR was not made betting hard on KOTOR fans or Console players playing it. They were targeting the MMO market as a whole. TESO is not only betting on TES fans but also console players while making a game that isnt actually targeting either. They aren't even targeting the MMO market as a whole because of its centered design piece.

    This isn't TES designed around an MMORPG world. This isn't an MMORPG designed around a world. Its a MMORPG world designed around centered PvP. The PvP is the focus, everything else is just fluff leading you there. And there isn't one of the three catagories that the game focuses on the majority of, TES player, Console player or MMORPG player that is PvP "focused".

    Some TES players also play PvP based games. Some Console players play PvP based games (fewer play pay per month PvP games) and how many MMORPG players play PvP focused games?!? A small amount.

    Now add in the fact that the TES games have far outsold the KOTOR games and you end up with a formula that points to TESO needing to far outperform SWTOR to not be seen as a failure. Anything less than 5 million in sales will be seen as a weakening of the IP and seeing as how the standalone games retain a million+ players for YEARS it will also need to retain a large amount of subscribers since its an MMO. There is more at stake with corporations making MMOs now, if they don't have a game that performs the entire company ends up taking a hit for it especially one like Zenimax whos board has been tossing around the idea of going public. They cant afford to have a poor performance right now.

    I say Del or Altman will lose their position in less than a year after release with Dominguez being behind it since he is the money behind it all. The company has many power players in it and heads will roll with the game being so bad for the IP.

    "People who tell you you’re awesome are useless. No, dangerous.

    They are worse than useless because you want to believe them. They will defend you against critiques that are valid. They will seduce you into believing you are done learning, or into thinking that your work is better than it actually is." ~Raph Koster
    http://www.raphkoster.com/2013/10/14/on-getting-criticism/

  • UtinniUtinni Member EpicPosts: 2,209
    For console ES fans this will be just like paying for DLC, which is usually $20. Every ES fan I know has all of skyrims DLC which is what, close to 6-7 months sub time, but for 10-15 hours of content each?
  • ukforzeukforze Member Posts: 331
    Originally posted by Vutar

    I hope every MMORPG made for consoles dies a horrible death, losses more money than any other games in history, and generally just sucks. Maybe then devs will stop trying to design derp fests that are completely designed for the lowest common denominator so that "hey we can put it on console!"

     

     

    haha +1

    The Deathstar destroyed planets...Lucas Arts destroyed Galaxies

    ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
    Played:
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  • KenFisherKenFisher Member UncommonPosts: 5,035
    Originally posted by Loktofeit
     

    I am curious if Forbes is aware how much some of these blogs affect their brand simply because people consider them "a Forbes article". The name Forbes seems to give undue weight to what is basically just a blogger that happens to write on their site. 

     

    The Forbes name did affect my perspective significantly, and I'm forced into rethinking that position.

    What Porn Stars Do When The Porn Industry Shuts Down  ... on Forbes?

     

    Okay, it's now safe to assume that I'm clueless.  Hehehe, not that some hadn't come to that conclusion long ago.  :-)

     


    Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now working in Network Security.  I don't Forum PVP.  If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident.  When I don't understand, I ask.  Such is not intended as criticism.
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  • DoogiehowserDoogiehowser Member Posts: 1,873
    Originally posted by Carl132p
    Originally posted by Doogiehowser
    Originally posted by Carl132p
    Leave it to mmorpg.com to be completely taken in by ESOs crap. Everyone who's played beta including myself know that the combat is GOD AWFUL and the quests aren't any good either. Those caves you love to explore in skyrim? full of turds running around slaying everything the second it spawns. The cool little mini stories that come with quests? not cool in the least, more annoying than anything. 

    So you are trying to tell us who haven't played the game that we should just take your word for it and start believing that game is awful?

    Sorry but i like to make my own opinions and decisions. Obviously not everyone is going to like the game, which is expected and is a very natural thing. And i don't think you are in position to speak on behalf of 'every one' who has played the beta.

    I AM in that position because NO ONE, who has experienced how poorly done the combat is, comes away saying man that was really well implemented. Your melee swings do as much damage as an auto attack in a normal mmo which leaves you sitting there stock still in front of a mob swinging away like an idiot because there is not point to moving around. Sometimes the mobs charge up a power attack and a big obvious box tells you to hit them, which causes a stun, then they sit there and get pummeled some more, but definitely don't die because your hits do nothing. Blocking doesn't actually block the attack, not only does the mob not respond to you blocking, you don't respond to you blocking and you take some damage for it. Whatever awesome combat the videos have lead you to believe is here is definitely not here, and again, the quests are shit. Have fun collecting ten more bear asses for the millionth time.

    I really doubt you knew all the thousands of beta players on a personal level where they expressed their displeasure regarding combat with you. So like i said earlier you are not in a position to speak on their behalf.

    "The problem is that the hardcore folks always want the same thing: 'We want exactly what you gave us before, but it has to be completely different.'
    -Jesse Schell

    "Online gamers are the most ludicrously entitled beings since Caligula made his horse a senator, and at least the horse never said anything stupid."
    -Luke McKinney

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  • sketocafesketocafe Member UncommonPosts: 950
    Originally posted by Fappuccino
    Originally posted by kitarad

    Isn't SWToR making money why would it be a failure ?

    SWToR was not created to simply float along.

    This exactly. When you invest hundreds of millions into something you want to do a little more than cover expenses and grab a little profit.

  • JJ82JJ82 Member UncommonPosts: 1,258
    Originally posted by greenreen

    This article was by someone who doesn't even play MMOs trying to tell us what will fail and their only reason - because its a sub game and SWTOR was also an MMO. Wow, what an uncanny resemblance. You going to tell me someone that hasn't played these games knows more about the players inside them than YOU or ME.

    Thanks for the typical post by those defending the game. Toss out everything you cant refute and focus on one small part of it you can.

    Not once has anyone defending this game pointed to one thing in the game that is remotely innovative. Its just another MMORPG that brings nothing new to the genre other than its a new MMO, the very thing that has caused so many games to fail over the last 7 years.

    "People who tell you you’re awesome are useless. No, dangerous.

    They are worse than useless because you want to believe them. They will defend you against critiques that are valid. They will seduce you into believing you are done learning, or into thinking that your work is better than it actually is." ~Raph Koster
    http://www.raphkoster.com/2013/10/14/on-getting-criticism/

  • GrumpyMel2GrumpyMel2 Member Posts: 1,832

    Well it just goes to show  that Forbes will let almost anyone right for them these days. I say that as someone who is NOT expecting great things out of ESO. However almost all of this guys conclusions are off base and nothing more then trying to project his own personal preferences onto the entire hobby as a whole.

    The only well founded point he had was concerns about the size of the budget (if the unsubstantiated rumor was true). Concerns about a bloated budget are a valid from a financial standpoint because it raises the bar on what the game has to get in returns in order to have been considered a worthwhile project. Leaving aside any considerations of whether it was a good or bad game, that's why TOR was considered such a disaster for EA because with such a hugely bloated budget, far beyond any previous MMO, it really did need to get the sort of subscription base to rival WoW to be worth the investment in it. Had TOR been built for 30 million instead, no would have really considered it much of a cautionary tale from a financial standpoint.

     

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Member CommonPosts: 10,910


    Originally posted by Loktofeit
    Originally posted by lizardbones   Originally posted by Loktofeit Originally posted by lizardbones Originally posted by DamonVile Originally posted by Loktofeit  
    Console gamers have nothing to do with it.  The MMO gamer pre-ordered their game, paid extra to play it before it was released, shelled out for the CE, and agreed to a monthly fee. To add insult to injury, they willing paid for the expansions, too. The MMO gamer has time and again told the industry "I have no familiarity with history, no concept of the difference between hope and reality, and absolutely no end to my wallet if you tell me over and over the words that I want to hear - that the game is made for me, that the features will revolutionize gaming, and that it is all based on my personal feedback."   After all, that is exactly how the past three years of MMOs have been sold, and it is the entire sales pitch for the Steam Early Access games, all of which start with "get involved with this game as it develops." Why? Because the buying patterns of the PC gamer have proven for well over a decade that there's money in doing it.  
    But it's 100% the devs fault. They should be better people and just know the customer has no self control.
    Why?  
    Do you really think Damonvile was serious, lizard? ;) 
    Argh. I cannot keep up with the people who are always being serious and saying what they mean from the people who always use satire or the people who are always sarcastic. It's too much. So, how about that Encyclopedia Brown? I think his most awesome case was witnessing a schoolyard fight in 4th grade and staying calm enough to notice that the boy who got punched in the chest didn't get his glasses broken, thus Solving The Case!  
    There was one about a Civil War sword that blew my mind because the answer was obvious and I completely missed it.  


    I thought that about every single case I didn't solve myself. Of course, I also cheated and read the books in the library, and when it came time to solve the case in class, I already knew the answers. :-)

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

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  • FappuccinoFappuccino Member Posts: 159
    Originally posted by JJ82
    Originally posted by greenreen

    This article was by someone who doesn't even play MMOs trying to tell us what will fail and their only reason - because its a sub game and SWTOR was also an MMO. Wow, what an uncanny resemblance. You going to tell me someone that hasn't played these games knows more about the players inside them than YOU or ME.

    Thanks for the typical post by those defending the game. Toss out everything you cant refute and focus on one small part of it you can.

    Not once has anyone defending this game pointed to one thing in the game that is remotely innovative. Its just another MMORPG that brings nothing new to the genre other than its a new MMO, the very thing that has caused so many games to fail over the last 7 years.

    I know of one. You get to play in Tamriel. That should be more than enough for the remaining players this game will have. Much like SWTOR. People living out their fantasies fighting with lightsabers.

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