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Will there be an MMO in the near future that doesn't follow the downward trend?

SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member

Recently all MMOs we have seen has started big and dropped big time a couple of months.  Here are some examples including SWTOR and GW2.  I will use Google but there are plenty of other sources:

SWTOR, GW2, Rift, Warhammer Online, FFXIV

WoW and Eve are the exceptions off course:

WoW

Eve Online

So can we actually see an MMO that launches and grows?  Or is that era over, in this over saturated market?

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Comments

  • RobokappRobokapp Dublin, OHPosts: 5,205Member Uncommon

    it would have to be an MMO that has a very solid answer to the following question:

     

    "After having played 10,000 hours, what will I be doing in-game on a weekly basis that will keep me excited and looking forward to achiving?"

     

    short answer is "probably not". current MMO's look like this:

     

    you can customize your character - ok it's done. now what.

    you can build your house - done. now what.

    you can explore different areas. - done, now what.

    you can team up to kill powerful foes. - they're dead, what next?

    participate in minigmes. - done. bored of them now what.

    pvp - did every bg 100 times, now what.

    sit in trade trolling - never gets boring but it's a little weak for an MMO.

     

    To better illustrate what I mean...some people have been on the forums for nearly a decade.

     

    WHY? Surely they'd be bored by now of reading, writing, clicking, repeating. There's a certain 'something' that keeps it interesting enough for them to return.

     

    can MMOs capture that 'something' ? hint: community ties are critical.

    image

  • FusionFusion VaasaPosts: 1,391Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Robokapp

    To better illustrate what I mean...some people have been on the forums for nearly a decade.

    How do you mean nearly? :P

     

    Back on topic, probably not. But i'm having an itch that Wildstar will do pretty good, because in many ways it's "WoW 2.0", they just need to meet the needs of the locust herd and have a massive content patch ready to deploy within a month :D.

    Currently playing: -

    Waiting for: Class4.

    Dead and Buried: ESO, NWO, GW2, SWTOR, Darkfall, AO, AC2, Vanguard, CoH/V, EnB, EVE, Neocron, FE, EQ, EQ2, DAoC, FFXI, FFXIV, SWG, WoW, and billions of eastern junks!

  • Mr.KujoMr.Kujo SwinoujsciePosts: 383Member
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass

    Recently all MMOs we have seen has started big and dropped big time a couple of months.  Here are some examples including SWTOR and GW2.  I will use Google but there are plenty of other sources:

    SWTOR, GW2, Rift, Warhammer Online, FFXIV

    WoW and Eve are the exceptions off course:

    WoW

    Eve Online

    So can we actually see an MMO that launches and grows?  Or is that era over, in this over saturated market?

     

    I hope we wont see. It used to be 50k people gradually increasing over time to 70k and then dropping to 40k etc. Now we have 1 million people dropping to 300k, I call that progress. I hope we won't get back to the dark ages, when mmorpg was labeled to geeks.

    Give me example of "old" mmorpgs, that have larger player base than the ones you mentioned as "dropping". It is normal, the bigger number of players, the bigger the drop. Back in the days there was nothing to drop from. Of course we are not using exceptions as any reliable statistic source (WoW etc.)

  • LittleBootLittleBoot roystonPosts: 326Member

    I would say that the prime for mmo's was around WOW vanilla/ TBC when subscribers hit their peak.  Funny, even in WOW back then,  mmo's were a very different animal to the light-weight easy-mode shit we get these days.  

    I have commented on this before but all publishers try to cut away fat and end up taking a lot of lean meat with it- and this constant trimming seems to be the be-all and end-all of game design.  ArenaNet horribly ruined a great game design (GW1) exactly via this process (GW2) and it will continue to happen until we all wind up logging on once a week to set our character off on some autonomous journey to cap.  

  • Sajman01Sajman01 Rochester, NYPosts: 204Member
    I think you've already seen it.

    Dota2/LoL are little mini mmos that play out over the course of 40 minutes as opposed to 4 years.
  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member

    I don't think it's possible, unless the MMORPG releases with very little advertising and spreads only via word of mouth. Any new MMORPG with an advertising budget is going to draw in all the people who are interested in the game when it releases.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • KyleranKyleran Tampa, FLPosts: 19,978Member Uncommon
    No, because MMOs now draw from a broader audience, one that wants to play multiple games in short, more casual sprints, (tourists I call them) who greatly inflate the numbers at launch but quickly move onwards, leaving the more long term players (the purists) to stick with it for the long haul, albeit in much smaller numbers.

    In my day MMORPG's were so hard we fought our way through dungeons in the snow, uphill both ways.
    "I don't have one life, I have many lives" - Grunty
    Still currently "subscribed" to EVE, and only EVE!!!
    "This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Common
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass

    WoW and Eve are the exceptions off course:

    So can we actually see an MMO that launches and grows?  Or is that era over, in this over saturated market?

    what era?

    as you stated, WOW, EVE (and Lineage) are the exceptions

     

    before WOW existed,

    game companies were facing similar hardships trying to get the numbers of Everquest

     

    Microsoft pulled the plug on Mythica because they didnt think they could compete w SOE for mmos

     

    Flood of games, too few players cause change in online realm

    http://otherworlds31279.yuku.com/topic/1167/Online-games-failuresuccess-Boston-Globe-article#.Urbz_PbbmpI

    Spurred by the success of EverQuest, lots of companies began launching persistent online role-playing games, without thinking through the demands of the market. "Too many products got created, to be used by too few customers," said Jeffrey Anderson, CEO of Westwood-based Turbine Entertainment Software, developer of another successful online game, Asheron's Call. "It's like we all decided we all wanted to create our own version of MTV."

    Actually, it's worse. Nearly anybody who likes pop music might check out the various MTV imitators for a minute or two. But there are millions of gamers who'll never try an online role-playing game.

  • BearKnightBearKnight Augusta, GAPosts: 461Member
    Originally posted by Nadia
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass

    WoW and Eve are the exceptions off course:

    So can we actually see an MMO that launches and grows?  Or is that era over, in this over saturated market?

    what era?

    as you stated, WOW, EVE (and Lineage) are the exceptions

     

    before WOW existed,

    game companies were facing similar hardships trying to get the numbers of Everquest

     

    Microsoft pulled the plug on Mythica because they didnt think they could compete w SOE for mmos

     

    Flood of games, too few players cause change in online realm

    http://otherworlds31279.yuku.com/topic/1167/Online-games-failuresuccess-Boston-Globe-article#.Urbz_PbbmpI

    He's talking about the era of good MMOs where hard work == actual fun things to do. You did relatively hard to do tasks that not 99% everyone else could do just given time. 

     

    EQ, DAOC, Shadowbane, Asheron's Call, AC2, SWG, the list goes on.

     

    He's talking about a return to the era of quality gameplay and graphics for their time rather than quick cash grabs that GW2, SWTOR, RIFT, WAR, and FF14 have recently done. Notice, those are only games that are worth mentioning. There are over 60 other "F2P" variants floating around that I was able to imitate with the latest Unity Engine in about a week of solid work. It's actually quite pathetic.

     

    Thought i'd clarify for you :)

  • anemoanemo Posts: 761Member Uncommon

    To be honest I think the community really needs to take some of the jade out of their glasses.    You're the one that changed not MMOs.

    The largest factor tied to your gameplay is the difference in play from when you were 10 years younger, and now.

    Practice doesn't make perfect, practice makes permanent.

    "There are still vast swaths of our planet's surface in which it's surprisingly easy to lose things. Even a ship the size of a large building." Richard Fisher

  • djazzydjazzy louisville, COPosts: 3,578Member

    no there won't

    there are simply way more options nowadays

  • Viper482Viper482 Somewhere, FLPosts: 991Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by anemo

    To be honest I think the community really needs to take some of the jade out of their glasses.    You're the one that changed not MMOs.

    The largest factor tied to your gameplay is the difference in play from when you were 10 years younger, and now.

    Where the hell did you come up with this crap? I am sure it sounded all wise and philosophical in your head, trust me in that it reads completely the opposite. 

    This is not even eligible as chalking it up as a  point of view, you are just wrong. You cannot tell me that today's MMO's have not changed from the likes of the traditional models of Asheron's, EQ, Daoc, UO, AO, etc. 

  • anemoanemo Posts: 761Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Viper482
    Originally posted by anemo

    To be honest I think the community really needs to take some of the jade out of their glasses.    You're the one that changed not MMOs.

    The largest factor tied to your gameplay is the difference in play from when you were 10 years younger, and now.

    Where the hell did you come up with this crap? I am sure it sounded all wise and philosophical in your head, trust me in that it reads completely the opposite. 

    This is not even eligible as chalking it up as a  point of view, you are just wrong. You cannot tell me that today's MMO's have not changed from the likes of the traditional models of Asheron's, EQ, Daoc, UO, AO, etc. 

    Regardless of the amount of change, the largest one is still going to be how the person changed over a decade ;), MMO dev time and adaptation is a lot slower than someone going from their early/late teens to their early/late twenties. 

    Which means that MMO devs are stuck developing based on play habits that won't be nearly as prevalent/relevant/wanted by the time it's released.

    Developers are also stuck listening to demands that are years old(from memory lane, on a game they no longer play, and forgot all the bad stuff about), likely something the poster themselves no longer wants at the time and pretty much not wanted by the time a MMO is developed.

    OP is completely correct in the sense that the players now have options.  But the fact that all the developers developed their game based on the above two factors with a combination of there being a shallower pool to collect data(compared to now), means that all of their games end up pretty darn similar even if they had honest intentions of doing new things.   Which means that players can just choose to stick with their old game, or jump from game to game to get the same thing but with new content.

    Practice doesn't make perfect, practice makes permanent.

    "There are still vast swaths of our planet's surface in which it's surprisingly easy to lose things. Even a ship the size of a large building." Richard Fisher

  • Starting big and waning is a natural state for most forms of media. It isn't just MMOs it's with new books, movies, and comics. Best and most well known example is with box office sales, first weeks are huge, second and third weeks a little smaller, then by the forth week on, not so much. People get exposed to the content in the first week, some go back and view the content again, some tell their friends for week two and three, by week four anyone that was going to go see it in the theater has done so for the most part.

     

    Sure, every once in a while one piece of media defies the odds and goes from no one hearing about it to becoming a nation wide best seller with a super loyal fan base, but those are few and far between.

     

  • maplestonemaplestone Ottawa, ONPosts: 3,099Member

    Who's word of mouth do you trust?

    There still exist games out there that started small and caught fire virally (eg: Minecraft).  I feel that most games that grow over time are the concepts people didn't expect would actually be fun ... so it's a little hard to predict them in advance.

  • HelleriHelleri Felton, CAPosts: 927Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass

    Recently all MMOs we have seen has started big and dropped big time a couple of months.  Here are some examples including SWTOR and GW2.  I will use Google but there are plenty of other sources:

    SWTOR, GW2, Rift, Warhammer Online, FFXIV

    WoW and Eve are the exceptions off course:

    WoW

    Eve Online

    So can we actually see an MMO that launches and grows?  Or is that era over, in this over saturated market?

    *sigh*

    Everyone forgets about Eor

     

    Seriously, It's older then WoW and EVE. And, it was the only MMO to actually cast it's own shadow under the OG f2p model while others withered under WoW's until Turbine took the leap with D&D online and went free-to-play (led by example). A crucial component of MMORPG history. Has worked hard enough at updating to at least have been nominated this year for a golden joystick (where as these other two were not in the running)...and still it gets left of people lists.

    image

  • ScotScot UKPosts: 5,754Member Uncommon

    There is a reason why WoW and EvE have maintained their player base apart from the fact they are both rather good at what they do. They both launched years ago, today no MMO is going to be able to maintain traction, the market has changed. Content locusts are the baulk of the player base now and they play for one or two months and move on. You get a very rare exception like GW2, but don't expect another one of those to come along that quickly.

  • VutarVutar BaghdadPosts: 773Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Mr.Kujo
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass

    Recently all MMOs we have seen has started big and dropped big time a couple of months.  Here are some examples including SWTOR and GW2.  I will use Google but there are plenty of other sources:

    SWTOR, GW2, Rift, Warhammer Online, FFXIV

    WoW and Eve are the exceptions off course:

    WoW

    Eve Online

    So can we actually see an MMO that launches and grows?  Or is that era over, in this over saturated market?

     

    I hope we wont see. It used to be 50k people gradually increasing over time to 70k and then dropping to 40k etc. Now we have 1 million people dropping to 300k, I call that progress. I hope we won't get back to the dark ages, when mmorpg was labeled to geeks.

    Give me example of "old" mmorpgs, that have larger player base than the ones you mentioned as "dropping". It is normal, the bigger number of players, the bigger the drop. Back in the days there was nothing to drop from. Of course we are not using exceptions as any reliable statistic source (WoW etc.)

     

    You do realize you just proved why older MMO's were better right? By your own reasoning the older MMO's were not only able to maintain their initial player base but also increase it. Even after the inevitable crash. Going from 1 million to 300k is a horrible retention rate that has nothing to do with being a bigger number. Look at it in percentages. The newer games lose players at a HUGE percent compared to older games. If I were in charge of a newer MMO I would be asking why that is happening and looking back at old games to see what they did right in regard to player retention.

     

     

     

  • SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member
    Originally posted by Scot

    You get a very rare exception like GW2, but don't expect another one of those to come along that quickly.

    GW2 fell just as hard if not harder than SWTOR, I don't see how that is an exception, it is exactly what I am talking about, it is the norm.  SWTOR and GW2 is the embodiment of what I am talking about.

  • SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member
    Originally posted by Guler

    Starting big and waning is a natural state for most forms of media. It isn't just MMOs it's with new books, movies, and comics. Best and most well known example is with box office sales, first weeks are huge, second and third weeks a little smaller, then by the forth week on, not so much. People get exposed to the content in the first week, some go back and view the content again, some tell their friends for week two and three, by week four anyone that was going to go see it in the theater has done so for the most part.

     

    Sure, every once in a while one piece of media defies the odds and goes from no one hearing about it to becoming a nation wide best seller with a super loyal fan base, but those are few and far between.

     

    But MMOs and multiplayer games are a different beast, if they are good they grow.  It isn't like the "market" has changed where games can't grow anymore.  Retention is the ultimate goal of MMOs.  This isn't a console game where success is based on initial sales.  Other games like LoL and DotA 2 have seen growth.  Even Minecraft and World of Tanks has seen growth in interest and players.

    Minecraft

    LoL

    World of Tanks

    I want to see an MMO release and grow and continue to grow.  But the trend for pretty much every mainstream MMO has been launch and massive decline.  Even the ones that start small (TSW) decline from launch.  Maybe there needs to be some drastic change in the market for that to happen, a MMO that is outside the saturated norm.

  • ButtdartButtdart Somewhere, DEPosts: 34Member

    EVE fills a niche that other dev houses aren't willing to compete with because they'd rather have a significantly lower chance at  WoW one-size-fits-all MMO cash than a higher chance at satisfying a select group specifically like EVE does.

    WoW won't be replicated, at least not in the tired old format all of these game dev houses are churning. The reason that had numbers was because that was almost a decade ago when the logistics of being on the internet itself and MMO's as a unique social hub was a different story, and people were able to foster friendships in that unique atmosphere.

    Now not only is that model tired and played out, but it hasn't really been innovated on at all. The game dev industry today is really just a bunch of kids that go get a comp sci degree or an art degree or whatever component of the team you are, and then go work for a game shop cranking out mobile trash that copies the most successful stuff (see the upset SOE employee review on glassdoor from a month ago saying how he's going to work on mobile because PC MMO dev is a joke right now at the major shops), or go work for a PC mmo house doing the same thing.

    When you think about it, EVE is kind of in the same territory as WoW though, in that they came out a long time ago when the whole MMO thing was a lot more unique, and a lot of the people playing that game are old vets. That game really has a reality distortion field around it for being something epic and groundbreaking, but it stopped being that years ago. In reality, that game is a tired old boring spreadsheet and something that you have to be the type of person who gets excited doing accounting to enjoy.

    The industry really needs a shift, a general shift to the way gaming is done, either through software or hardware or both. Everyone likes to hype oculus rift because they hope that's going to be it, but at that price point it's doubtful it will get more than the hardcore gamers and because of that small market percentage it will see limited support in games, similar to eyefinity (from a market penetration standpoint, not a tech standpoint, eyefinity was a gimmicky joke, Oculus Rift may actually have something).

    EQNext is the only verifiable fail I can see in the near future. Smedley's credibility by itself is a powder keg the whole gaming community is waiting to light at the first sniff of something they don't like about the game, and that's enough to kill even a good game.

    If the Oculus Rift guys could get a gesture of good faith from the big gaming shops and gaming hardware developers to help subsidize the costs to put it in more gamers hands (say for example a version of the game that includes Oculus Rift at a cheaper price than buying it outright) that'd help, but only after it's proven among hardcore gamers in the community, youtube, twitch etc. They lead the charge.

  • DraemosDraemos Antartica, AKPosts: 1,469Member

    The answers is... No.

     

    i do think console MMOs are going to start taking off though, using the same dried out boring formula. 

  • PsychoticHamsterPsychoticHamster Brooklyn, NYPosts: 97Member Common
    Probably not, players just consume content way too fast while expecting constant new and unique experiences. Technically, the only type of MMO that could hold a players attention for hours upon hours is a sandbox, but even then a player is likely to get bored at some point. I think that the way games are made, as well as how they are consumed, need to change. It really isn't feasible to expect to have a long career with a game if you're playing it 10 hours a day. Developers also need to focus on creating more tools for the player to use within the world rather than spend months crafting a 4 hour experience that satisfies no one. Players can and will make their own fun if given the right set of tools coupled with fun gameplay.  

    image
  • ButtdartButtdart Somewhere, DEPosts: 34Member
    Originally posted by BearKnight
    He's talking about the era of good MMOs where hard work == actual fun things to do. You did relatively hard to do tasks that not 99% everyone else could do just given time

    That era will never return simply due to the fact that back then, MMO players were wading through the difficulty on their own or at best with a guild. Nowadays every casual player even runs to youtube and the hardcore's who used to be the only ones who could do that are rushing to be the first to make youtube videos teaching everyone to do it so they can monetize it with ads, hits on their site, etc.

    At the core it is really a disruptive technology if you want to look at the classic mmo's and how the suspense remained and incentive was there to join guilds because they had people who figured things out and were "in the know".

    Any puzzle, challenge, boss strat, etc in an MMO today is instantly spoiled as soon as the big streamers/youtube guys start playing the game. Most of them don't even want to play the game, they just want to be professional video strat guide makers with their uber video and audio editing, oh, and don't forget the standard tagline at the end "thanks guys like this and subscribe".

    It is what it is and you can't go back. Yeah people can say "so don't watch them, don't spoil the game", but everyone will reply either publicly or silently "but I want to compete, that's why I'm playing an MMO".

    The downside is there is really no way for devs to reinvigorate this suspense and exclusivity factor that incentivized people to join guilds or had a sense of achievement if they figured it out on their own. Nowadays awesome gear/achievement just = time  - NOT tactics or networking with other smart players or organizing - and that's boring slavery, which is why people quit.

    In a way it's kind of funny because back in the day of older consoles before all of this, people would buy paper magazine strat guides and other people would laugh at them because they knew they were spoiling it, they'd say "why even play?".

  • xeniarxeniar Posts: 805Member Uncommon

    no.

    the massive decline thing will still happen no matter how good your game is. Evryone and his mother is jumping the gun trying anything new wich comes out, and you cannot make a game wich is liked by all of em. so it is inevetable that you lose alot of that initial hickup. 

    What developers should do is create there own game something wich is unlike other games. or something wich is targeted at a certain group of players.. being moneyhungry and trying to get evryone in does not work. we have seen that now. countless times.

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