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My 5 predictions of 2014

sportsfansportsfan BlankenbergePosts: 431Member

1. MMO's will still be free to play for the most of them and will not recover from the shake out in the loss of their subscriptions.

2. THE game of 2014 on line will be Hearthstone. Establishing a new wave of massively played casual games on line. 

3. iPads and other tablets will even more erode the MMORPG worlds on PC.

4. The newly launched MMO's will just fade after the initial 3 months launching period, just like in previous years, despite the hype.

5. WOW will still be top dog with 6 million subs of which 3 M reside in the west. Actually Hearthstone could have a positive impact on it by the end of 2014.

tldr: nothing will change.

CU in 2015.

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Comments

  • ScotScot UKPosts: 5,769Member Uncommon

    Not so sure about your faith in Heartstone, there are too many MMOs out there and the players are nearly all content locusts. They will all suffer the fate you described in 3. In the last four or five years the only MMO to retain traction population wise is GW2, it is not even the best MMO released in that time period but there you go. That fact should show you just how tough MMO land has become.

    You mentioned iPads etc, this is the snowballing danger for the easymode MMOs we have today. They are going to change as much in the next five years as they have over the last five. I speak out against easymode MMOs all the time, but my advice if you like them, is to play them now. I don't think they will exist in their current form in 2018.

    Hopefully we will see you before 2015. :)

     

  • greenreengreenreen Punchoo, AKPosts: 2,101Member Uncommon

    I know the death talk for WOW has been ongoing for years but I think it's finally coming.

    My reasons are because people keep talking down on the expansions, they added a cash shop, they are working on other things. I think the only people hanging on are there either because it's nostalgic/they have a lot invested or because it's one of the only predominantly sub games left.

    I'd put on paper this year for my prediction that I think next year subs are going to start rising instead of the opposite. I think people have tried the free games and too often find problems with them that they can attribute to the payment model. I don't think the free games are going to stop being released but I think that the people will stop favoring them. I think the model makes enough money that devs will keep trying to get what they can out of it until they simply can't get patrons at all (but the free ones).

    Once a year or so goes by without true paying patrons, they'll come back to offering subs and become inspired to go back to making games with unique features instead of the only selling feature being free. This is going to be partly based on saturation. It's already there. There are already too many games for people to play now. Free or not, our attention is scattered and it's easy to jump out of anything because another thing is always coming that offers just as much since the only thing offered is "free".

    Because I don't think things will change instantly I might give it 2 years for my prediction to hit. I think a few quarters of reduced profit will have to prompt the devs to react to the player's mindset change. Until they see it on paper, they'll keep on keepin' on.

     

     

    When I look at spending from Superdata they usually claim about 4 times the amount in free games as sub games but there are more than 4 times the free games as sub games so I see the money as spread around more than the sub profits. They keep reporting that sales are dropping too without a large player loss. That means that people are choosing to spend less and nothing is stopping them. I think Superdata mostly releases things in favor of free games so I'm surprised they are reporting it but so be it.

    http://www.superdataresearch.com/blog/us-digital-games-market/

    "The free-to-play category showed a significant drop in November, declining 17% month-over-month, totaling $217 million in sales. The overall size of the audience remained stable at around 45 million monthly actives, but the average spend per user declined 10% month-over-month."

    "Big winner in November was Lord of the Rings Online which, after suffering a power outage, released its Helm’s Deep expansion two days late but still managed to add about 80,000 new players to its user base, totaling just under 400,000 subscribers."

    They also mention a sub rate for LOTRO if anyone plays that and wondered the number. What I don't know is how the Lifetime fits into their sub bracket. I've had lifetime sub but I don't ever login to the game since they went free. Does my sub count even though it's inactive, will it always count unless I completely delete the account etc.

  • ScotScot UKPosts: 5,769Member Uncommon

    No way are the current trends in MMOs going to reverse. You may see one or two MMOs showing how it can be done but even then it would be three years more to become widespread in the genre. As you mention its a long haul.

    Like many of us you are seeing things in the payment schemes that you don't like, trouble is they don't care. MMO companies are now pursuing a social media market that is far more into microtransactions than even your average F2P player. Any reduction in the old player base due to people leaving will be made up by the new people they are appealing to.

    So I don't see a big drop in profit coming and that's what you would need to make them take there head out of the sand.

  • KniknaxKniknax LeicesterPosts: 567Member Uncommon

    Heathstone is a gateway game to online Poker.

    2014 will be the year of the teenage gambling addict!

    "When people don't know much about something, they tend to fill in the blanks the way they want them to be filled in. They are almost always disappointed." - Will Wright

  • DMKanoDMKano Gamercentral, AKPosts: 8,572Member Uncommon

    ArcheAge cometh to west :)

    Ive been in hearthstone beta for over 2 months now and don't care for it. Just not for me.

    The OP assumes that online card games appeal to all - they don't, just like shooters don't appeal to all, or fantasy MMORPGs.

    Those 7.6million current WoW players mostly like WoW, I don't think that even 15% would play hearthstone for more than a couple of weeks.

    Also OP your starting premise on some prediction is false - like #1 -some games thay went F2P have seen a massive resurgence and have been very successful.

     

  • LeGrosGamerLeGrosGamer Canada, QCPosts: 210Member
    Not sure about your 5 predictions, but I do agree the last line "CU in 2015" , pretty much all the good looking / playable games are releasing by the end of 2014 / Q1 2015.    Guess I'll stick with Ogre Battle and Earthbound for 2014  image
  • furbansfurbans Tinbucktwo, IAPosts: 965Member
    Originally posted by greenreen

    I know the death talk for WOW has been ongoing for years but I think it's finally coming.

    My reasons are because people keep talking down on the expansions, they added a cash shop, they are working on other things. I think the only people hanging on are there either because it's nostalgic/they have a lot invested or because it's one of the only predominantly sub games left.

    WoW will still be going strong.  They are updating their dated models, citing that they are going back to the roots of the game, open world PvP zone, player housing that actually impacts the player unlike most player housing where it is entirely fluff. 

    There is enough going on for WoW that it will be a force to be reckoned with and likely still be the dominate MMO.  Wildstar will need to stand the test but so far it is following the path of all past "WoW killer" mmos, that is people will rant n rave about how it will be the greatest thing since sliced bread and on launch day will have a good reception but a few months later subs will dwindle to below 250k mark.

    Only two things will challenge WoW, WoW's own internal demise or a truely revolutionary MMO which WS is copying the WoW formula and modifying it to their own taste.

    Also people bashing on the cash shop need to realize that the cash shop has ALWAYS been there either through the battle.net or through the TCG.  They just incorperated it into the game for easier access and even then it is truly entirely fluff items unlike Neverwinter where they said fluff only which the could not be further from the truth.

  • donpopukidonpopuki Dearborn, MIPosts: 591Member
    Everquest Next might be the big new thing in 2014. If I had to put money down I would bet it on EQN. I could be wrong but something has to be the next big thing someday.
  • AIMonsterAIMonster Apopka, FLPosts: 2,059Member

    1.  Everquest Next: Landmark will do very well and will cause more developers to start putting serious effort into world building elements of their game as well as show developers that the F2P model IS viable for AAA MMOs.  It will also get people excited for EQ:Next, which won't release till 2015 most likely but we'll probably see an alpha/beta sometime in 2014.

    2.  Consoles will start becoming a viable market for MMO developers with the release of console MMOs such as The Crew and Destiny (and more later down the road like The Division) and more and more games being developed for both the PC and consoles.

    3.  Wildstar will have a slight impact on WoW's numbers - expect to see a small drop when it releases, but won't even approach the juggernaut in terms of subscription numbers.  Yes, WoW is still going to be king.

    4.  Although neither will be "failures" (and I have high hopes for Wildstar in particular), Wildstar and TESO will be the last AAA MMOs to use the subscription model and may even be the last MMOs with a "themepark" focus.

    5.  Korean games will still take over 2 years to port to port to the Western audience and will fade into obscurity in the West due to taking too long to port.  The first concurrent release of a high quality Korean game may have impact on the West, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen in 2014.

    image

    Raptr link because it's the cool new trend:
    image

  • AIMonsterAIMonster Apopka, FLPosts: 2,059Member
    Originally posted by furbans
    Originally posted by greenreen

    I know the death talk for WOW has been ongoing for years but I think it's finally coming.

    My reasons are because people keep talking down on the expansions, they added a cash shop, they are working on other things. I think the only people hanging on are there either because it's nostalgic/they have a lot invested or because it's one of the only predominantly sub games left.

    WoW will still be going strong.  They are updating their dated models, citing that they are going back to the roots of the game, open world PvP zone, player housing that actually impacts the player unlike most player housing where it is entirely fluff. 

    There is enough going on for WoW that it will be a force to be reckoned with and likely still be the dominate MMO.  Wildstar will need to stand the test but so far it is following the path of all past "WoW killer" mmos, that is people will rant n rave about how it will be the greatest thing since sliced bread and on launch day will have a good reception but a few months later subs will dwindle to below 250k mark.

    Only two things will challenge WoW, WoW's own internal demise or a truely revolutionary MMO which WS is copying the WoW formula and modifying it to their own taste.

    Also people bashing on the cash shop need to realize that the cash shop has ALWAYS been there either through the battle.net or through the TCG.  They just incorperated it into the game for easier access and even then it is truly entirely fluff items unlike Neverwinter where they said fluff only which the could not be further from the truth.

    How is Wildstar copying the WoW formula?  Almost every aspect is different aside from maybe some similarities in art style and overall lighthearted feel of the game

    Also the cash shop has not always been in WoW.  I think it was released late at Burning Crusade (or was it WotLK?) through their site selling minipets and mounts.  It wasn't present at all during vanilla.

    image

    Raptr link because it's the cool new trend:
    image

  • ScotScot UKPosts: 5,769Member Uncommon

    "2.  Consoles will start becoming a viable market for MMO developers with the release of console MMOs such as The Crew and Destiny (and more later down the road like The Division) and more and more games being developed for both the PC and consoles."

    Remember what happened to PC gaming when consoles became solo player king? First people were saying they would compliment the PC, more games for everyone. Then consoles took over and far fewer games made it to the PC. That's exactly what is going to happen to MMOs if they go console first. Bye, bye PC.

    "4.  Although neither will be "failures" (and I have high hopes for Wildstar in particular), Wildstar and TESO will be the last AAA MMOs to use the subscription model and may even be the last MMOs with a "themepark" focus."

    Definitely not the last AAA with a thempark focus, quite possible the last AAA to use a subscription. I think there have been only two MMOs out in 2013 which used a subscription or B2P. Poorly funded F2P MMOs are now king.

  • MMO-BPMMO-BP Downey, CAPosts: 21Member
    I can't see WoW dying. It will keep losing subscribers as it continues to age. But it still has plenty for a healthy population, and I'm sure it will jump up again when the new expansion arrives.
  • frestonfreston orensePosts: 521Member

    1) I will keep gaining weight

    2) December will come and the barn will still need to be thatched

    3) I will flop french classes after going to 4-5 of them

    4) The static Bycicle will keep gathering dust in the corner for one more year

    5) I will be balder.

  • Ice-QueenIce-Queen USA, GAPosts: 2,451Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by MMO-BP
    I can't see WoW dying. It will keep losing subscribers as it continues to age. But it still has plenty for a healthy population, and I'm sure it will jump up again when the new expansion arrives.

    I agree, it's not going to die anytime soon. There's too many people loyal to the game and enjoying it. Yes, it will dwindle subscriptions over the next 5-10 years. If it ever gets to the point they're not making a lot from subscriptions, they'll just go B2P or F2P and get their money from cash shops. It's not going anywhere anytime soon, I don't understand the hate for WoW, I guess because it's so successful and so many other games try to clone it. I don't think there will be another big hit for an Mmorpg (in terms of millions of subscribers) until Titan comes out honestly.

    image

    What happens when you log off your characters????.....
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFQhfhnjYMk
    Dark Age of Camelot

  • Ice-QueenIce-Queen USA, GAPosts: 2,451Member Uncommon
    Double post oops

    image

    What happens when you log off your characters????.....
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFQhfhnjYMk
    Dark Age of Camelot

  • greenreengreenreen Punchoo, AKPosts: 2,101Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Ice-Queen
    Originally posted by MMO-BP
    I can't see WoW dying. It will keep losing subscribers as it continues to age. But it still has plenty for a healthy population, and I'm sure it will jump up again when the new expansion arrives.

    I agree, it's not going to die anytime soon. There's too many people loyal to the game and enjoying it. Yes, it will dwindle subscriptions over the next 5-10 years. If it ever gets to the point they're not making a lot from subscriptions, they'll just go B2P or F2P and get their money from cash shops. It's not going anywhere anytime soon, I don't understand the hate for WoW, I guess because it's so successful and so many other games try to clone it. I don't think there will be another big hit for an Mmorpg (in terms of millions of subscribers) until Titan comes out honestly.

    Aww, I don't think it's hate as much as - it's old - let's get it off the roster so that people stop comparing everything to it. Because it had the big numbers any game like it people are saying is a carbon copy and sometimes they aren't at all. It's even used to claim success or failure - did you match wow sub numbers. Realistically with as many games as there are now, you probably can't. Wow didn't compete with so many free games when it came out.

    Rift was a copy in some ways but others not. They did make improvements that I mentioned to other people when playing the game that first week. Stuff like being able to change your skill setup on the go and not have to visit town. The minimap being aware of NPCs being above or below you and indicating that in the tooltip. They had the invasions that wow didn't in the PVE zones. They were the same because they had dungeons and classes but their graphics were better, their crafting items were sellable instead of trash and they introduced housing because of demand.

    Wow really overlooked housing, it brings in all the sandboxers to decorate and they will dungeon hop for decorations fitting into both worlds. Wow is just, old I guess, that's why I think it's ok to let it die. It's not hate for it, things have just come out to improve on it. It does though have so much lore that maybe some people won't let it go and like you say will even play it free.

    They made their money hand over fist, I'm sure they aren't complaining on that one. They released a game with a ton of polish and it paid off - how can we convince others to do the same :)

  • mindw0rkmindw0rk St-petersburgPosts: 1,351Member
    Those predictions look like they made by someone who started playing MMORPGs few weeks ago
  • kairel182kairel182 SMD, RIPosts: 241Member Uncommon

    Hearthstone is utter trash.  There's nothing casual about it, it's pure pay to win garbage.  And even when you use the "gold" you've earned in game to get anywhere, you're faced with losing to pure luck (especially when building Arena decks).

     

    I've watched hours of Kripparrian play arena and learned how to build decks.  My last attempt at arena was a Warlock deck without a SINGLE "Imp" card in it.  I knew at that point there was no point in playing because you had to invest so much money to build your own decks that it was pointless and uninstalled it.

     

     

    TLDR; Hearthstone is in no way casual.  You will get NO WHERE playing casually and if you're not the luckiest person to constantly win Arena, you will be spending a boat load of cash on buying packs to make real decks or just buying entry into arena which takes real money or gold.

  • kairel182kairel182 SMD, RIPosts: 241Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Ice-Queen
    Originally posted by MMO-BP
    I can't see WoW dying. It will keep losing subscribers as it continues to age. But it still has plenty for a healthy population, and I'm sure it will jump up again when the new expansion arrives.

    I agree, it's not going to die anytime soon. There's too many people loyal to the game and enjoying it. Yes, it will dwindle subscriptions over the next 5-10 years. If it ever gets to the point they're not making a lot from subscriptions, they'll just go B2P or F2P and get their money from cash shops. It's not going anywhere anytime soon, I don't understand the hate for WoW, I guess because it's so successful and so many other games try to clone it. I don't think there will be another big hit for an Mmorpg (in terms of millions of subscribers) until Titan comes out honestly.

    The hate is a double edged sword that hurts everyone in the long run.

     

    WoW has stagnated with few patches and few expansions, with no urgency to continue to progress or grow it because there's no competition to be had.  This hurts the current players whom continue to support it by not getting as much value for their money.

     

    For the rest of us whom HATE the game and everything it stands for (Okay, or just the people tired of it, too) we get stuck with WoW clones and things that are directly copied from the game that we DO NOT WANT; otherwise we'd fucking play WoW if we wanted it.

     

    Healthy competition is a necessity for good consumerism.  Business 101 teaches that.  These rabid fans don't understand they're paying for something that could be FAR better simply because no one has the balls/intelligence to make a game that isn't a clone.

  • DragviperDragviper CaracasPosts: 100Member Uncommon

    My predictions are...

    Alien invasion, slavery of humankind, video games turns real. Oh yes and Venezuelans will still believe everything is great in socialism...

  • RaquisRaquis hartenbosPosts: 537Member Uncommon

    every thing souds ok but heart stone?

    whats wrong with you

  • RidelynnRidelynn Fresno, CAPosts: 4,179Member Uncommon

    I'll throw mine into the lot:

    1) ESO does moderately well. A lot of buzz and hype initially dies off to a small but sustainable crowd by year's end. It's no Skyrim, but it does ok enough on it's own.

    2) Hearthstone gets a cult-like following, but nothing near SC2 or LoL. Blizzard uses tie-ins to attempt to keep WoW subscriptions up, while it's no where near becoming insignificant, they continue to dwindle at a steady pace.

    3) EQL hits beta, and releases "officially" Fall 2014 with SoE's typical
    "Free to Play your way" style fees. EQN remains nowhere to be seen, with beta invitations slated to go out in early 2015. EQL is Minecraft with fantasy graphics and EQ lore, and a few people who love playing with Legos really take to it, but everyone else is left waiting for EQN. In late 2014, someone redoes one of the original EQ1 zones in EQL and that creates a lot of buzz about a possible EQ1 reboot (again).

    4) SteamOS and SteamBox come, and go. It does fairly well for Steam stuff, but lack of support for anything outside of a limited number of Steam titles, high price for console-like hardware, and no unique functionality that can't be performed by other, less expensive devices (i.e. streaming ala Shield) really tamper down on the excitement of Valve's latest project. The handheld controller is great, but it's not so great that it replaces any of the other great controllers. Everyone complains that it can't play Windows games (duh).

    5) A dozen or so MMO's appear for the latest gen consoles. None of them gain a lot of traction - 2014 isn't the year of the console MMO, but it starts to pick up steam.

  • RobokappRobokapp Dublin, OHPosts: 5,206Member Uncommon

    My predictions for 2014...

     

    1) F2P bubble bursts toward the end of the year.

    2) Crowfunding bursts with Star Citizen.

    3) P2P MMOs launch with smaller playerbases than previous titles. stabilize around 50% retention.

    4) WoW stabilizes at 2mil western subs. Begins considering an extension to its F2P model up to level 70. For 2015.

    5) EVE Online keeps growing like clockwork.

    6) Non-PC e-sports games, particularly graphics un-intensive TCGs are the next big thing.

    7) Fewer new mall indy MMOs are announced than 2012/213.

    8) World of Darness and Project Titan are delayed further.

    9) WoW Movie is launched creating the last great accumulation of nerds per square meter of our generation.

    10) We start wondering if 2015 will be "More of the same".

     

    image

  • DistopiaDistopia Baltimore, MDPosts: 16,915Member Uncommon
    My prediction: In 2014 those who can accept faults in games will be playing games, those who can't will be on forums raging about it.

    For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson

    It is a sign of a defeated man, to attack at ones character in the face of logic and reason- Me

  • NovusodNovusod Lakewood, NJPosts: 892Member Uncommon
    I am going to make a bold prediction and say that WoW will actually be dethroned in 2014 by some sleeper hit coming out of China. The emergence of the Chinese gamer will be the biggest trend in 2014.  The Chinese MMO that changes everything won't even be released in the Western market until 2015. By then the real MMO scene with shift to Asia and the Western markets will be seen as an after thought.
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