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From Cracked: Gaming Industry Headed For A CRASH!
TheLizardbones
Member CommonPosts: 10,910
I'm always interested in the point of view of people who are in or from the gaming industry. It's a very nice contrast, and even if I don't agree with what they are saying it has a legitimacy that random internet wack-os do not have.
http://www.cracked.com/article_20727_5-reasons-video-game-industry-about-to-crash.html
This article from someone who's worked in the industry, and who's worked on some MMOs gives a nice perspective on why some of the weird things that happen, that we complain about happen. It also highlights why some of that might be changing soon.
If nothing else, it's interesting, and there might even be a moment of, "I knew it!" in there for you. :-)
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Comments
best quotes by far:
"Back then, the average game could be made for $800,000 on the low end, but by the PlayStation 3 era, the number had ballooned to $28 million. With the new consoles, that's going to go up again. At this point, it'd be cheaper to just create real zombies to chase people around."
"New memo, guys: We're working on Call of Duty: Fuck Canada now."
"There are at least two kinds of games.
One could be called finite, the other infinite.
A finite game is played for the purpose of winning,
an infinite game for the purpose of continuing play."
Finite and Infinite Games, James Carse
Somebody, somewhere has better skills as you have, more experience as you have, is smarter than you, has more friends as you do and can stay online longer. Just pray he's not out to get you.
same author seems to approve of using kickstarters
http://www.cracked.com/members/DaveAnon/
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/astrobasecommand/astrobase-command
<section genericleftmodule="" profileaboutmodule="" dropshadowbottomcurved"="">EQ2 fan sites
Yeah, that was on purpose. Thought it would fit the forums better than, "Here is an interesting article from someone in the industry who thinks things are going to dramatically change in a few years."
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
http://www.cracked.com/members/DaveAnon/
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/astrobasecommand/astrobase-command
Kickstarters are certainly a way for developers to bypass the trap of a company being run by people who are business savvy but not game development savvy.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
ya i noticed that he'd linked his KS project at the start of the article. i can only imagine he's one of the burned out and decided to go it alone rather than have to deal with the lunacy.
ii hope it works out for him.
but frankly, im worn out seeing all these 'retro' games. i didn't pine for days of 8bit when i was playing 8bit as a child, i wanted to see more realism and 3dimensions...to see this stuff hashed over again and again is kinda frustrating.
"There are at least two kinds of games.
One could be called finite, the other infinite.
A finite game is played for the purpose of winning,
an infinite game for the purpose of continuing play."
Finite and Infinite Games, James Carse
i also disagree with the author
all 5 reasons are relevant but they've been relevant for the last 10 years
I see nothing that points to an upcoming video game crash that 1983 had
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983
social games have taken off and show no signs of losing steam (pun intended
)
games are pulling in more revenue than box office movies
a business article to counter the Cracked article
Why Video Games Succeed Where The Movie And Music Industries Fail
http://www.fastcompany.com/3021008/why-video-games-succeed-where-the-movie-and-music-industries-fail
The video-game industry is projected to grow from $67 billion in 2013 to $82 billion in 2017.
At the same time, global movie revenue, both DVD and ticket sales, hit an estimated $94 billion in 2010, down 17% after inflation from 2001.
Why is the video-game industry on the ascendance? And are there any lessons that the movie (and to a lesser extent, the music) industry can take from its success?
EQ2 fan sites
At least in 3D games for PCs and consoles, player expectations on graphics have gone way up. It takes one huge pile of cash to generate 10 gigs of art.
That has to put an incredible amount of stress on the bottom line.
I don't understand that statement considering the numbers you give contradict it.
Not to mention that the numbers are not comparing apples to apples. The video game industry counts console sales and accessories. The movie industry only counts DVD sales and theater tickets.
There are certain queer times and occasions in this strange mixed affair we call life when a man takes this whole universe for a vast practical joke, though the wit thereof he but dimly discerns, and more than suspects that the joke is at nobody's expense but his own.
-- Herman Melville
Not to mention that the numbers are not comparing apples to apples. The video game industry counts console sales and accessories. The movie industry only counts DVD sales and theater tickets.
Both are entertainment industries, so anything that's sold goes into the revenue for the industry. It doesn't really matter whether what's sold is something to keep, or something temporary. For instance, if you go to a 3D movie, and pay more for a ticket you can keep the glasses. Those glasses are counted as part of the sales.
It's a big deal because nothing has even come close to the movie industry since, well, ever.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
I signed up a long time ago with one large, national company to do surveys and one of the most interesting things is how many gaming/gamer surveys there have been this year. It certainly suggests a lot more attention being paid to this segment of the economy, and it suggests the interest is coming from new sources.
to clarify:
i find no fault w Cracked authors criticism of gaming
but i strongly disagree it's leading to a videogame slump
4 years ago, Video games outsold movies (including DVD) in UK
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13846_3-10423150-62.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/video-games/6852383/Video-games-bigger-than-film.html
regarding my box office comment from earlier post
i concede it's not that simple -- better details
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/12/10/247521444/do-americans-spend-more-on-video-games-or-movies
Americans spend more on video games than on tickets to the movies.
Grand Theft Auto V was the fastest-selling entertainment product of all time, with sales of 1 billion in just 3 days.
But when you factor in everything — not just movie tickets, but on demand, rentals, etc. — Americans still spend way more on movies than they do on video games.
EQ2 fan sites
Thanks Liz.
Let it die. Let it be rebuilt through a labor of love i.e. The Origins of Malu guys, or The Repopulation guys, or even the Wushu guys, not snail, but the developers/programmers who thought of all the crazy stuff. People who would create for free and are overjoyed to be getting paid. This is where the industry came from.
I've said it many times. The mmorpg industry reminds me so much of the hip-hop industry. People who would rap for free, and had something they think the world should hear, were replaced by people who know what sells, must recoup their investment, and met quarterly projections.
I can't help but think "Well, Duh!" on this one.
Too many people making too much product causes a crash. Look at the personal computer market. That's what's happening there too!
There is only way around ever increasing budgets, you stop making that type of games.
Your example only works for low budget projects - same what Zinga did, they produced dozens of games to get a 1 or 2 money makers.
Only thing that small dev teams attract is a failure...since they are no business people and in most cases shoot for more than they can chew, producing sub-par, non-competitive products.
You need someone with money awareness in lead, not a gamer. Leading a company is no video game...
Well, a competing product did enter the market and target the same consumers. That doesn't seem too likely to happen with video games.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Just like any other industry, eventually there are contractions in different market spaces. Video/Computer games are not different in that respect: when there are too many companies, putting out too much mediocre product, eventually people will stop paying for them.
People seem to think that the video game industry is some unique snowflake where the pressures that affect every other industry don't apply.
And the thing that people don't appreciate is, is that although the overall revenue for video/computer games across all platforms is going up, it is increasing at a FAR lower rate than the products themselves are produced.
In other words, there are so many products coming out, that the market can't or won't absorb them all. That is not a good sign for a particular market sector, and is a huge red flag that an industry is priming for a contraction.
Personally, I think it goes to 2 factors:
First, that games are not being made by "game guys" like they used to be, but are being overseen by "entertainment executives" who look at it the same as producing a TV show or movie, as such, the products suffer from lack of vision and originality and understanding what is involved with doing the products well.
Second is the diffusion of talent across the industry: there used to be fewer "greats" in the game business, but they were centered in relatively small market segment. Now, there are 50x more companies trying to get into the game market, and not nearly enough "great talent" to put out original. quality games. So instead, you get mediocre companies/developers putting out mediocre product. This is something that has been seen before many times in other industries.
I agree with alot of what the article said.
Especially the part about CEOs in charge of things they shouldnt be.
I work for a company that just recently hired a new General Manager.
The guy is good a the business/office stuff, but doesnt know JACK about what the workers do in the field.
Yet he is constantly sticking his fingers in the "field work" side. He puts techs in positions they have no business being in and worse he tries to tell them not only what to do, but how to do it.
Each job I go to is an adventure in "Will this go smoothly or be a complete cluster f#@*%";
I actually hate my job now because of this guy.
Bringer of Eternal Darkness and Despair, but also a Nutritious way to start your Morning.
Games Played: Too Many
Big budgets huh. What if a company came out and said something like, "We feel mmorpg budgets are out of control, and haven't produced a better product. For our next project, we're setting a budget of 15 million. We believe..." Hmm.
Only one small problem with that idea: gamers will expect them to produce a game bigger and better than GTA V with that 15 million...
No the CEO must be a game industry veteran with actual game dev experience - in this case MMORPG dev experience, he will have money awareness as you can't be a head of huge MMO dev team without budget planning.
However, the CFO is someone with real money awareness, who works closely with the CEO.
CEO does not lead a company - the board does, the CEO is there to provide the vision and his instinct to what games to persue.
The problem of having a non-mmo designer/director/dev as a CEO is they lack *vision* for the company and having the *nose* for a good game project that is worth investing into.
A business guy will say *I like this game* - but he has no experience to whys, hows and where to take it - he's got no sense of what makes the games and gamers tick.
Maybe the big change will simply be more game developers going to business school.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Which gaming industry?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phantasmagoria_(video_game)
This was a big thing once, games were going to be as costly as movies to produce. 7th Hour was IT! Gone the days of Elite being made by a single guy (Braben).
Sierra is gone. Minecraft is a hit. Created by a single guy.
Some of the most talked about games are made by tiny teams and released as indie titles not just on PC but increasingly on the consoles.
Everything old is new again. There ALWAYS been big budget games and there always been games that didn't break even regardless of budget.
A segment of the market might crash but remember, regardless of how high the budget was for GTA V, it turned a profit on the first day of sales. And minecraft too makes a profit. Where is the crash?
While SWTOR failed, Eve Online continued to generate an income for its team as it had done for years. And it not like either Bioware or EA are hurting for cash because of SWTOR's failure.
Sure, some companies will go broke. So? Others will rise from the ashes.
People have been posting articles like the parents for as long as I have been gaming which is at a time when text games were still viable. I seen companies rise and fall. It means nothing.
Gaming is here to stay and it will be supplied by companies big and small as long as someone thinks there is money to be made. And someone always thinks there is money to be made anywhere.
EVE Online back in the day was a measly few million or so (5m€). With Inflation probably still less than 15m$ in today's money (~ 6.2m€).
http://www.gdcvault.com/play/1014633/Classic-Game-Postmortem