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ARR exceeds SEs expectations

24

Comments

  • Kayo45Kayo45 Member Posts: 293
    Give it up haters, they went from an expected loss to an even larger profit, and they credited FFXIV and arcade sales for it. They even reported 1.5 million in sales well into their second month ... an increase of 500k since their first report near release. Hell, they recently promoted Yoshi for such a job well done. I mean it doesnt get much clearer that the game is succeeding.

    Yet again you got haters going out of their way to come to the games specific forum, to whine about it and spread negativity. Its like im reading Fox News commentators trying so hard to convince everyone that its really doing bad despite multiple reports of success. Reality is its crystal clear theyre only desperately trying to convince themselves.
  • SethiusXSethiusX Member Posts: 171

    It is certainly not unusual for people on this forum to speak in extremes, for and against games, just like what has been happening in this thread.

    While I still await the final judgement on whether FFXIV succeeds long term or not, these reports are encouraging. I enjoy the game and really want that old sensation of finding a game that I can spend years in once again. I'm tired of wandering from mmo to mmo.

    It's now been 2 months and 14 days since the beginning of Early Access. Despite the horrible problems at the start, the game has grown. Additionally, there is still quite often a queue for logging into many of the servers, including my own. The in-game population is also quite telling, as it feels just as alive and busy and packed with people as it ever did, although the population is certainly more concentrated now in the higher level zones.

    Despite these positives, much of the long term success will probably be based on whether patch 2.1 is amazing or not when it comes out in early december. Some players will stay no matter what just for the FF brand, but others will only stay if the patch provides a large amount of fun and exciting new content. So far based solely on what SE has said, the patch might have a shot of doing that... if SE can actually pull-off what they are planning. 

  • XatshXatsh Member RarePosts: 451

    The game currently is a smashing success, and honestly something no one even thought was possible. No failed mmo has even been brought back to life in this way before.

    So currently the game is a major success and honestly if you ask around I think it exceeded everyone's projections. Most people were expecting 350-500k subs max... the servers still have login ques 2 months after launch and the sales keep going up.

    The long term success of the game is still very questionable, game is good but the content is sorta grindy and short lived. It is fun but I really worry about retention. The game sales keep going up but no new servers are being added, and ques are not getting worse... that means the new are just replacing old. It seems people are leaving this game atm I would say at about the rate of people coming in. Which is a bad thing.

    The games future really depends on the updates and 2.1 has to be stellar. The people who did not start fresh are getting extremly bored now which spells death for a mmo if it stays that way for long. The newer players have stuff to do but they will also get to that point as well after a month or two.

    If 2.1 and future patches add enough worthwhile content and expand the game greatly then this game will be here for a whlie. If people are bored 4-6 weeks after patch 2.1 again, well I expect a SWToR situation to happen within the next year. If people are bored they will flock to the new titles coming out to try out greener pastures.

    Game has potential, but I stay reserved in my outlook... so much potential has ended in catastrophic failure lately.

  • SethiusXSethiusX Member Posts: 171
    Originally posted by Xatsh

    The game currently is a smashing success, and honestly something no one even thought was possible. No failed mmo has even been brought back to life in this way before.

    So currently the game is a major success and honestly if you ask around I think it exceeded everyone's projections. Most people were expecting 350-500k subs max... the servers still have login ques 2 months after launch and the sales keep going up.

    The long term success of the game is still very questionable, game is good but the content is sorta grindy and short lived. It is fun but I really worry about retention. The game sales keep going up but no new servers are being added, and ques are not getting worse... that means the new are just replacing old. It seems people are leaving this game atm I would say at about the rate of people coming in. Which is a bad thing.

    The games future really depends on the updates and 2.1 has to be stellar. The people who did not start fresh are getting extremly bored now which spells death for a mmo if it stays that way for long. The newer players have stuff to do but they will also get to that point as well after a month or two.

    If 2.1 and future patches add enough worthwhile content and expand the game greatly then this game will be here for a whlie. If people are bored 4-6 weeks after patch 2.1 again, well I expect a SWToR situation to happen within the next year. If people are bored they will flock to the new titles coming out to try out greener pastures.

    Game has potential, but I stay reserved in my outlook... so much potential has ended in catastrophic failure lately.

    I think your analysis of the situation is quite fair. The only thing that I might disagree with is that the server queues not getting larger means that players are leaving at the same rate as they are coming. The reason I suggest this might not be the case is because SE has been quite aggressive (for better or worse) in locking down character creation on servers that are busy during prime time (and they still do it), and forcing players to distribute onto the lower population servers. I know you can wait till the restriction is lifted during the mornings, but players that don't care what server they end up on probably just pick one of the 3 or so lower pop servers (in NA). 

    It's an interesting, if questionable, technique that seems to have paid off in balancing all the servers out so that none get overpopulated and neither do they have any dead servers. I'm basing my information on the in-game situation and the servers that are locked during prime time, and also on this thread on reddit from earlier today: http://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/comments/1q0eon/ffxiv_population_census/

  • Kayo45Kayo45 Member Posts: 293
    www.dualshockers.com/2013/11/06/final-fantasy-xiv-sold-1450000-units-up-to-september-the-30th-has-over-600000-paying-subscribers/

    600k subs out of 1.45 million sold. Over half subs lost but not a bad number regardless.
  • ThomasN7ThomasN7 87.18.7.148Member CommonPosts: 6,690
    How could it not after the first go around ? This isn't really saying much.
    30
  • SethiusXSethiusX Member Posts: 171
    Originally posted by Kayo45
    www.dualshockers.com/2013/11/06/final-fantasy-xiv-sold-1450000-units-up-to-september-the-30th-has-over-600000-paying-subscribers/

    600k subs out of 1.45 million sold. Over half subs lost but not a bad number regardless.

    I really wish companies would provide updated info. Information that is 5 weeks old is not really all that informative.

    It's also pretty useless info when it says that the game sold 1.45 million up to sept. 30th, and had 600k+ "paying" subs at that time. Does that 600k "paying" subs only include the people that are done their 30 day trial? That would only include copies sold up until about the first of september if that is the case... how many copies had been sold by that point? Anyone know?

    Edit:

    I've been looking around, and I found this from Sept. 24th:

    http://na.finalfantasyxiv.com/pr/blog/000506.html

    It shows at the time that the total Unique logins were 1,080,000 by Sept. 24th. So, it gained 370,000 more in sales by the 30th? (I just realized that they had shut down sales until Sept. 17th for digital copies, so that could explain the sudden burst of sales later in September).

    So, excluding the 370,000 that seemingly came after the 24th that would still be on their free 30 day trial, 600k+ paying subs of just over 1m is an interesting figure.

    I'd still like to know how many they sold by Sept. 1st, so that we could see what percentage decided to pay for a sub by the 30th after their trial ended... but I suspect that information might be impossible to get?

    All of this, to me, seems to suggest that they did not lose anywhere near half the subs, but rather many of the sales were still in their 30 day trial by Sept. 30th for various reasons. 

    Again though, it would be nice if the figures were a lot more current...

  • xpsyncxpsync Member EpicPosts: 1,854
    ARR exceeded everyone's expectations.
    My faith is my shield! - Turalyon 2022

    Your legend ends here and now! - (Battles Won Long Ago)

    Currently Playing; Dragonflight and SWG:L
  • amber-ramber-r Member Posts: 323

    So according to Squares financial announcement.

     

    FFXIV ARR sold 1.45 million copies at $12.99 (most mmos sell for 3 times that, including ffxi), of that 1.45 million buyers 850k decided not to subscribe at all.  It peaked at 600k subscribers, peak doesn't mean current and there is no way that peak will get higher in a modern mmo.  So there we go, this game has peaked at 600k for 3 regions (almost every other mmo had been released in only 2 regions for comparison).  From here on out it's all about how many players of that 600k it manages to hold onto long-term.  I remember when people were saying it had 1.4 million subscribers and now we see that was not the case at all.  6 months from now SE will put out their next financial report and we will see how it faired.

     

    For comparison.

    SWTOR peaked at 1.7 million NA/EU subscribers and most of them were gone in 6-9 months forcing f2p.

     

    SWTOR fanboy thread predicting the future below.

    http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?s=9b0b51cdb756184fa47e473a36930aa5&t=268605

     

     

  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Member RarePosts: 14,247
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    How could it not after the first go around ? This isn't really saying much.

    That seems to suggest that if other MMOs that crashed and burned initially relaunched, hundreds of thousands returning would be a reasonable expectation.

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Member RarePosts: 14,247
    Originally posted by drivendawn
    Originally posted by Loktofeit
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    How could it not after the first go around ? This isn't really saying much.

    That seems to suggest that if other MMOs that crashed and burned initially relaunched, hundreds of thousands returning would be a reasonable expectation.

    So far ffxiv has been the only one to do this that I know of.

    Others have, but that's kind of irrelevant to the point presented. Is it a normal expectation that a subscription MMO that failed at launch would garner hundreds of thousands of players in a relaunch? Thomas suggests that it is,and that exceeding $600 million when doing so should be expected. I contend that exceeds what any dev should expect on the relaunch of a subscription MMO. IMO, it's a rather impressive feat.

    On a somewhat related note, here's an interesting article on the idea of relaunching MMOs.

     

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • AlexanderVendiAlexanderVendi Member UncommonPosts: 373

    Endgame grind was dull , painfull and booring... i have not subscribed after my free month.

     

  • bentrimbentrim Member UncommonPosts: 299
     TO:( Xiaoki) He is not desperate,merely stating facts...moron! Remember the $150 MILLION  LOSS back in 2011-12????? Didn't think so!
  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Member RarePosts: 14,247
    Originally posted by drivendawn
    Originally posted by Loktofeit
    Originally posted by drivendawn
    Originally posted by Loktofeit
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    How could it not after the first go around ? This isn't really saying much.

    That seems to suggest that if other MMOs that crashed and burned initially relaunched, hundreds of thousands returning would be a reasonable expectation.

    So far ffxiv has been the only one to do this that I know of.

    Others have, but that's kind of irrelevant to the point presented. Is it a normal expectation that a subscription MMO that failed at launch would garner hundreds of thousands of players in a relaunch? Thomas suggests that it is,and that exceeding $600 million when doing so should be expected. I contend that exceeds what any dev should expect on the relaunch of a subscription MMO. IMO, it's a rather impressive feat.

    On a somewhat related note, here's an interesting article on the idea of relaunching MMOs.

    I meant the underlined . I mean after the huge fail of 1.0 to back getting back over 600k users

    Ok, makes more sense now. :)

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • ZizouXZizouX Member Posts: 670
    Originally posted by Loktofeit
    Originally posted by drivendawn
    Originally posted by Loktofeit
    Originally posted by drivendawn
    Originally posted by Loktofeit
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    How could it not after the first go around ? This isn't really saying much.

    That seems to suggest that if other MMOs that crashed and burned initially relaunched, hundreds of thousands returning would be a reasonable expectation.

    So far ffxiv has been the only one to do this that I know of.

    Others have, but that's kind of irrelevant to the point presented. Is it a normal expectation that a subscription MMO that failed at launch would garner hundreds of thousands of players in a relaunch? Thomas suggests that it is,and that exceeding $600 million when doing so should be expected. I contend that exceeds what any dev should expect on the relaunch of a subscription MMO. IMO, it's a rather impressive feat.

    On a somewhat related note, here's an interesting article on the idea of relaunching MMOs.

    I meant the underlined . I mean after the huge fail of 1.0 to back getting back over 600k users

    Ok, makes more sense now. :)

    Here's some perspective.... taken from YoshiP's live letter on October 30, 2013.

     

     

    0:40:13
    Q: Are the number of people logging in decreasing?

     

    A: As FFXIV: ARR is a subscription based business model, naturally there will be players who will not play anymore once they finish the main scenario. MMORPGs that launched after 2008 with a subscription based model retained a maximum of 35% of their users during the first month of subscriptions. However, FFXIV: ARR has surpassed this number by a wide margin. That's not to say that we're satisfied with our current figures, and we'd like as many people as possible to subscribe and play the game. My plans with FFXIV 1.0 were the same, but we would like to first deliver exciting and fun content to all the players who are playing the game. With a steady income from monthly fees, we can then continue to provide constant updates, and by doing this, players who once left will likely return. I feel it is extremely important to continue to do this for subscription based MMORPGs these days, and we'll be making sure to see this through.

  • didjeramadidjerama Member Posts: 201
    Originally posted by amber-r

    So according to Squares financial announcement.

     

    FFXIV ARR sold 1.45 million copies at $12.99 (most mmos sell for 3 times that, including ffxi), of that 1.45 million buyers 850k decided not to subscribe at all.  It peaked at 600k subscribers, peak doesn't mean current and there is no way that peak will get higher in a modern mmo.  So there we go, this game has peaked at 600k for 3 regions (almost every other mmo had been released in only 2 regions for comparison).  From here on out it's all about how many players of that 600k it manages to hold onto long-term.  I remember when people were saying it had 1.4 million subscribers and now we see that was not the case at all.  6 months from now SE will put out their next financial report and we will see how it faired.

     

    For comparison.

    SWTOR peaked at 1.7 million NA/EU subscribers and most of them were gone in 6-9 months forcing f2p.

     

    SWTOR fanboy thread predicting the future below.

    http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?s=9b0b51cdb756184fa47e473a36930aa5&t=268605

     

     

    People forget very fast. I encourage everyone to revisit SWTOR ecstatic PR during first 3 months, all the numbers theyve thrown out (hours played, ingame transactions made.... .... ....)

    SWTORs F2P "relaunch" also saw very big spike. And it also didnt last very long. LOTROs F2P relaunch had a big spike. Even DDO F2P relaunch had huge spike. Theres nothing "exceptional" about having a spike at "relaunch".

  • dreamscaperdreamscaper Member UncommonPosts: 1,592
    While a part of me is glad they were able to give FFXIV a happy rebirth, at the same time I can't help but feel that rewarding a company for producing a cookie cutter standard MMORPG sets a bad precedent.

    <3

  • EdliEdli Member Posts: 941
    Originally posted by didjerama

    SWTORs F2P "relaunch" also saw very big spike. 

    A F2P relaunch is so not the same. It costs nothing to try it and a lot of people that didn't bother or couldn't pay did try it.

    It would have been like SWtor relaunching in the same way instead, buying the game and sub again. 

  • HyanmenHyanmen Member UncommonPosts: 5,357
    Originally posted by ZizouX

    0:40:13
    Q: Are the number of people logging in decreasing?

     

    A: As FFXIV: ARR is a subscription based business model, naturally there will be players who will not play anymore once they finish the main scenario. MMORPGs that launched after 2008 with a subscription based model retained a maximum of 35% of their users during the first month of subscriptions. However, FFXIV: ARR has surpassed this number by a wide margin. That's not to say that we're satisfied with our current figures, and we'd like as many people as possible to subscribe and play the game. My plans with FFXIV 1.0 were the same, but we would like to first deliver exciting and fun content to all the players who are playing the game. With a steady income from monthly fees, we can then continue to provide constant updates, and by doing this, players who once left will likely return. I feel it is extremely important to continue to do this for subscription based MMORPGs these days, and we'll be making sure to see this through.

    Shh, you're not supposed to flood the thread with facts that back up the OP.

    Now repeat after me:

    FFXIV:ARR is just like the rest of the MMORPG's launched after 2008 with a P2P model.

     

    Using LOL is like saying "my argument sucks but I still want to disagree".
  • didjeramadidjerama Member Posts: 201
    Originally posted by Edli
    Originally posted by didjerama

    SWTORs F2P "relaunch" also saw very big spike. 

    A F2P relaunch is so not the same. It costs nothing to try it and a lot of people that didn't bother or couldn't pay did try it.

    It would have been like SWtor relaunching in the same way instead, buying the game and sub again. 

    They stopped almost all content production for almost 6 months to make F2P ready. It costs a lot when you have 0 plans or code since you never planned for it in development.

    In a way you kinda say if they did rework the game SWTORs spike would be even bigger.

    And you could get FFXIV dirt cheap. At worst case it cost you half of a brand new game to get it. And it shows retention is in line with similar titles.

    As i said, the TRUE long term numbers will be known (to SE not necessarily to anyone else when all 3-6 months subs expire. Considering all free time and closed sales 7 months from sep. 17 (date when sales were reopened) under condition no new free time was given (in SWTOR everyone got free month after 3 months and i had 7-8 days extra, dont really know why guess maintenance screwups and such)

  • HyanmenHyanmen Member UncommonPosts: 5,357
    Originally posted by didjerama
    And it shows retention is in line with similar titles.

    Yeah, sure it does.

    Using LOL is like saying "my argument sucks but I still want to disagree".
  • EdliEdli Member Posts: 941
    Originally posted by didjerama

    And you could get FFXIV dirt cheap.

    You have no idea how many people a paywall, any kind of paywall keeps out. There are a lot of kids for example that don't have a credit card or paypal and can't pay even $1.

    F2P games will always have huge spikes in the beginning. All it costs is a click in the download button. 

  • didjeramadidjerama Member Posts: 201
    Originally posted by Hyanmen
    Originally posted by didjerama
    And it shows retention is in line with similar titles.

    Yeah, sure it does.

    And i have surpassed everyone in my line of work by wide margin because everyone is just 35% efficient.

    Scouts honor.

    And his number has already been shot down. So not really worth discussing.

  • HyanmenHyanmen Member UncommonPosts: 5,357
    Considering the kind of tantrum people get over having to pay a sub fee, and then same people turn around to say a free game vs. a game that costs money is "pretty much the same thing", is rather hilarious but not unlike what you'd expect on this forum.
    Using LOL is like saying "my argument sucks but I still want to disagree".
  • HyanmenHyanmen Member UncommonPosts: 5,357
    Originally posted by didjerama

    And his number has already been shot down. So not really worth discussing.

    By a random person on the interwebs? Truly remarkable.

    But wait! This follows the narrative perfectly.

    First we deny everything until a dev comes out and tells us some good news.

    When they do, we can then start saying the dev is incorrect or outright lying.

    And so the cycle continues....

    Using LOL is like saying "my argument sucks but I still want to disagree".
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