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10 million Skyrim fans

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  • HomituHomitu Hometown, HIPosts: 2,030Member

    I guess I'll just copy/paste the same answer I gave last month...

    Originally posted by Homitu

    Most new big name MMOs with big IPs that have come out over the last few years - like SWTOR, GW2, FFXIV - effortlessly generated 1-2 million buyers based on pre-release interest alone.  Whether the numbers go up or down from there depends on how good the game actually turns out to be.  

    TES has a similarly successful IP, so I'd expect the numbers to be somewhere in the same realm.  One thing that favors the game is that I think there's a fair bit of overlap between TES players and MMO gamers.  We all know how well Skyrim did.  Now certainly, all 10 million Skyrim players aren't also MMO gamers; and even some portion of those who are won't necessarily play the game.  Then, of course, there are also MMO gamers who haven't ever played any TES games who will pick up the game to check it out.  All of this factored in, I expect the game to sell somewhere in the GW2 3-4 million range after one year.  After just one month, I'll broadly guess between 1.5 and 2.5 million.  

    It's also worth nothing that console availability broadens accessibility to the game, which will undoubtedly increase sales to some extent.

    I personally haven't followed the game much since it was announced though, so I'm not factoring in how the game actually looks, which of course completely dictates player retention and growth after release. 

     

  • ElRenmazuoElRenmazuo Alexandria, VAPosts: 4,552Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by goldtoof
    I would have thought not being able to play it on their xbox would be a bigger factor.

    Its going to be on xbox one and PS4

  • IselinIselin Vancouver, BCPosts: 5,612Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by djazzy

    Is The elder scrolls a bigger IP than Star Wars?

    I think it will be comparable to what SWTOR did in initial sales.

    Bigger than KOTOR? Yeah by a huge amount. The big IP there was the Star Wars movies, not KOTOR. By your logic LOTRO and Star Trek should have also been huge MMO hits... they weren't. Those were attempts to spin-off popular IPs into MMOs by 3rd parties who didn't even have anything to do with the IP previously.

    This IP is an CRPG IP being developed by a branch of the same people who own the IP.

    The biggest MMOs have all been based on existing computer games (UO, WOW) or good original computer game ideas (EQ, EVE.) And all were developed by the IP creators.

     

    Anyway... we'll see in about 6 months won't we?

     

  • IselinIselin Vancouver, BCPosts: 5,612Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Teala
    Originally posted by SavageHorizon
    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

     I dont see them selling 10 million copies anytime soon... 

     

    But you had no problem predicting that ArenaNet would sell more copies of GW2 than Blizzard's WOW, right lol.

    Think you are underestimating the pull of the IP and it's followers. The last time we saw something like this was with WOW and battle.net fans never having played a MMO before but ended up playing WOW.

    Like the game or not, TESO will IMO be the first western MMO that get's close to the numbers of WOW.

    And unlike your other GW2 prediction, sub based mmo didn't die with the release of GW2. Many players have no problem paying a sub for a decent MMO. The pull of the IP will have people paying a sub without even thinking about it.

     

    Post like this always make me LMFAO!

    So do most of your posts: all big sig bling and little to no substance.

  • DAS1337DAS1337 Parma, OHPosts: 2,404Member

    I am not big on predicting these sorts of things, but I would imagine that TESO will be incredibly sought after initially.  It will be releasing on three systems nearly simultaneously. 

     

    They will get their money's worth.  That's for sure.

  • DAS1337DAS1337 Parma, OHPosts: 2,404Member
    Originally posted by doodphace
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    A million copies sold  perhaps. The Old Republic I believe mustered up about a million and Star Wars is more popular than Elder Scrolls. 

    SWTOR did over 2 million sales, then stablized at 500k subs. I see TESO doing similier.

    Was SWTOR also released on XBOX and Playstation as well?

     

    You have to factor that in.

  • muffins89muffins89 Yakima, WAPosts: 1,306Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by doodphace
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    A million copies sold  perhaps. The Old Republic I believe mustered up about a million and Star Wars is more popular than Elder Scrolls. 

    SWTOR did over 2 million sales, then stablized at 500k subs. I see TESO doing similier.

    yeah but swtor was just pc.  I can see 2mil pc sales and 1mil for each console.  that's 4m at launch.  which isn't anything to scoff at.  but of course many will call it a failure because it won't have 100% player retention.

    I think the prostitute mod corrupted your game files man. -elhefen

  • TheCrow2kTheCrow2k Adelaide, AKPosts: 953Member
    Originally posted by goldtoof

    I would have thought not being able to play it on their xbox would be a bigger factor.

     

    ^QFT. While I am not a console gamer I am an Elder Scrolls fan, but a fan of their single player stories so the MMO holds no interest for me.
  • ArglebargleArglebargle Austin, TXPosts: 1,416Member Uncommon
    I do think they should focus on the Console versions of ESO.  Less competition in the install base, and less exposure to MMOs. 

    If you are holding out for the perfect game, the only game you play will be the waiting one.

  • Lord.BachusLord.Bachus Den HelderPosts: 9,065Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Arglebargle
    I do think they should focus on the Console versions of ESO.  Less competition in the install base, and less exposure to MMOs. 

    They are...

    Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)

  • TorvalTorval Oregon CountryPosts: 7,209Member Uncommon
    I think this game will sell well with MMO ESO fans. I don't think it's going to go over well with the non-mmo ESO fans. I don't know any ESO fan, among friends and family, that plan on playing this. Only one of them is an MMO player, but he doesn't plan on playing this one.
  • SleepyfishSleepyfish Ashville, NCPosts: 363Member
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    I think this game will sell well with MMO ESO fans. I don't think it's going to go over well with the non-mmo ESO fans. I don't know any ESO fan, among friends and family, that plan on playing this. Only one of them is an MMO player, but he doesn't plan on playing this one.

    I don't know many ESO fans who are MMO fans, I know a few DAOC and GW2 fans who like the idea of a DAOC clone with ESO graphics and races. I think most people understand that which is why despite the IP the Hype is not very high for this game. 

  • Lord.BachusLord.Bachus Den HelderPosts: 9,065Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Sleepyfish
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    I think this game will sell well with MMO ESO fans. I don't think it's going to go over well with the non-mmo ESO fans. I don't know any ESO fan, among friends and family, that plan on playing this. Only one of them is an MMO player, but he doesn't plan on playing this one.

    I don't know many ESO fans who are MMO fans, I know a few DAOC and GW2 fans who like the idea of a DAOC clone with ESO graphics and races. I think most people understand that which is why despite the IP the Hype is not very high for this game. 

    Strange, i do not know many mmo players that did not play Skyrim....

     

    I have learned one thing, if the game is good enough and word gets around, people will buy despite the price...

    Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)

  • ClassicstarClassicstar rotjeknorPosts: 2,690Member


    Originally posted by deakon

    Originally posted by Classicstar  

    Originally posted by Volgore I'm a huge Skyrim and Oblivion fan and hence WILL NOT buy teso.   My prediction is a huge discount 3-4 month after release what makes them scratch the 2mio sales mark, huge loss of players within 6 month, game dead within 1.5years, f2p when it doesnt even matter anymore. Zenimax just cannot properly pull something as big as this off and do the IP justice, just like Turbine was never able to carry an IP as big as Lotro or Mythic with WAR. Seen it way too often to still fall for it...it's always the wrong studio that somehow manages to get the license of a great IP and then delivers a bad game which goes down the drain fast.
      Zenimax is almost bethesda its already for a very longtime mother company and betehsda its independed when it comes to making the elderscroll mmo game. I very doub that zenimax dont use and listend to bethesda if its about TESO. Its only that bethesda and zenimax want a money grab cash in on succes of skyrim and that blind them from follow formula solo games so it will fail as mmo but not becouse of zenimax just becouse they make same mistake as all before try beat WoW and use this as a cashcow. They will never reach the succes of Skyrim that game is a league on its own it will never be passed by this TESO abomination. You can't btw not predict on BETA sign ups there freeloaders when the beta is over they go to next beta most dont even test they just wanne free ride.
     Beta sign ups are the best indicator of interest in a game pre launch tho and as the beta is only available to pc players and not where the vast majority of tes players play (consoles), 3m sign ups shows that there is a hell of a lot of interest in the game. I cant think of any other pre-release mmo that has had that many beta sign ups, even swtor only had 2 million, and that went onto sell 2 million in 1month without the aid of cross platform and with the disadvantage of having pretty stale and typical mmo gameplay

    Yeh we seen that in past 8 years and those words you spoken here "Ive never seen so many beta sign ups"most of those games that had huge amount of sign ups all failed.

    As i said most are freeloaders hoping to play a beta and then they wait for next one TESO will be no different sign ups SAY NOTHING its no indicator that should have make it clear over past 8 years.

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  • quixadhalquixadhal Kalamazoo, MIPosts: 215Member
    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus
    Originally posted by Sleepyfish
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    I think this game will sell well with MMO ESO fans. I don't think it's going to go over well with the non-mmo ESO fans. I don't know any ESO fan, among friends and family, that plan on playing this. Only one of them is an MMO player, but he doesn't plan on playing this one.

    I don't know many ESO fans who are MMO fans, I know a few DAOC and GW2 fans who like the idea of a DAOC clone with ESO graphics and races. I think most people understand that which is why despite the IP the Hype is not very high for this game. 

    Strange, i do not know many mmo players that did not play Skyrim....

     

    I have learned one thing, if the game is good enough and word gets around, people will buy despite the price...

    *raises hand*

    I did purchase Skyrim, and I played through the introduction, but just didn't feel like investing the time into it... and then got distracted by other shinies.

    The only sandbox-style MMO's I've found interesting have been EVE-Online, and Star Wars Galaxies.  I've heard good things about Darkfall, but can only afford one subscription game at a time, and currently that's FFXIV.

    I don't see the subscription being an issue for most of the target audience.  It will keep out the kiddies.  It will keep out people like me who aren't willing to jump ship and can't keep multiple subs open.  It will keep out a few penny pinchers who think that it's OK to spend $8 to go see a movie for 2 hours, but that spending 50 cents a day for as much entertainment as they can get is somehow "wrong".

    At the moment, I'm rather enjoying finishing GTA 4 (yes, FOUR).  The release and super-positive reviews of GTA 5 (dismissing the online snafu) convinced me that it'd be fun to play, so I decided to go back and finish 4.  I suspect TESO will be the same for me.  If I hear enough good things about it, I'll pull out Skyrim and play it FIRST.

     

  • ClassicstarClassicstar rotjeknorPosts: 2,690Member


    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

    Originally posted by Sleepyfish

    Originally posted by Torvaldr I think this game will sell well with MMO ESO fans. I don't think it's going to go over well with the non-mmo ESO fans. I don't know any ESO fan, among friends and family, that plan on playing this. Only one of them is an MMO player, but he doesn't plan on playing this one.
    I don't know many ESO fans who are MMO fans, I know a few DAOC and GW2 fans who like the idea of a DAOC clone with ESO graphics and races. I think most people understand that which is why despite the IP the Hype is not very high for this game. 
    Strange, i do not know many mmo players that did not play Skyrim....

     

    I have learned one thing, if the game is good enough and word gets around, people will buy despite the price...


    Most of time as we know by now after a month or 2 we know if the game is good or not many succefull betas still where no good indicator and most of those still failed after 2-3months.

    These days it seems if you dont wanne waste your money wait few months thats a good indicator if the game is any good or not.
    This is only a suggestion on my part, goahead if you think its worth risk.

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  • doodphacedoodphace Vancouver, BCPosts: 1,815Member
    Originally posted by DAS1337
    Originally posted by doodphace
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    A million copies sold  perhaps. The Old Republic I believe mustered up about a million and Star Wars is more popular than Elder Scrolls. 

    SWTOR did over 2 million sales, then stablized at 500k subs. I see TESO doing similier.

    Was SWTOR also released on XBOX and Playstation as well?

     

    You have to factor that in.

    XBOX and PS4 versions might as well be seperate games, seeing as there is no cross platform play....lets say the game sells 4 million copies accross all 3 platforms....that does not mean any 1 person has the ability to play with 4 million other players, which is all that matters when it comes to MMOs.

    In any event, box sales should be the LAST thing anyone cares about when it comes to MMOs.

  • goboygogoboygo Posts: 790Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Arglebargle
    My guess is two to three million.  In sales anyway.  Subscriptions is another matter.

    More far far more.

    "Fighting Internet stupidity one post at at time"
  • deakondeakon birminghamPosts: 583Member
    Originally posted by Classicstar

     


    Originally posted by deakon

    Originally posted by Classicstar  

    Originally posted by Volgore I'm a huge Skyrim and Oblivion fan and hence WILL NOT buy teso.   My prediction is a huge discount 3-4 month after release what makes them scratch the 2mio sales mark, huge loss of players within 6 month, game dead within 1.5years, f2p when it doesnt even matter anymore. Zenimax just cannot properly pull something as big as this off and do the IP justice, just like Turbine was never able to carry an IP as big as Lotro or Mythic with WAR. Seen it way too often to still fall for it...it's always the wrong studio that somehow manages to get the license of a great IP and then delivers a bad game which goes down the drain fast.
      Zenimax is almost bethesda its already for a very longtime mother company and betehsda its independed when it comes to making the elderscroll mmo game. I very doub that zenimax dont use and listend to bethesda if its about TESO. Its only that bethesda and zenimax want a money grab cash in on succes of skyrim and that blind them from follow formula solo games so it will fail as mmo but not becouse of zenimax just becouse they make same mistake as all before try beat WoW and use this as a cashcow. They will never reach the succes of Skyrim that game is a league on its own it will never be passed by this TESO abomination. You can't btw not predict on BETA sign ups there freeloaders when the beta is over they go to next beta most dont even test they just wanne free ride.
     Beta sign ups are the best indicator of interest in a game pre launch tho and as the beta is only available to pc players and not where the vast majority of tes players play (consoles), 3m sign ups shows that there is a hell of a lot of interest in the game. I cant think of any other pre-release mmo that has had that many beta sign ups, even swtor only had 2 million, and that went onto sell 2 million in 1month without the aid of cross platform and with the disadvantage of having pretty stale and typical mmo gameplay

     

    Yeh we seen that in past 8 years and those words you spoken here "Ive never seen so many beta sign ups"most of those games that had huge amount of sign ups all failed.

    As i said most are freeloaders hoping to play a beta and then they wait for next one TESO will be no different sign ups SAY NOTHING its no indicator that should have make it clear over past 8 years.

     

    How can you say they don't correlate when clearly they do, swtor had 2 million sign ups and sold 2 million copies in the first month, gw2 had over 1 million sign ups and sold over 1 million 1st month, AoC over 500,000 sign ups sold 500,000 first month etc.

     

    That shows a direct correlation with beta sign ups and units sold (which was the question asked in the OP)

     

    The only reason those games "failed" is because they struggled with retention as non of them had much in the way of end game, it had nothing to do with lack of interest

  • deakondeakon birminghamPosts: 583Member
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    A million copies sold  perhaps. The Old Republic I believe mustered up about a million and Star Wars is more popular than Elder Scrolls. 

     

    Not when it comes to gaming it isn't, no star wars game has close to 10 million units sold and swtor managed to sell 2 million in 4 weeks without cross platform

  • IselinIselin Vancouver, BCPosts: 5,612Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by doodphace
    Originally posted by DAS1337
    Originally posted by doodphace
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    A million copies sold  perhaps. The Old Republic I believe mustered up about a million and Star Wars is more popular than Elder Scrolls. 

    SWTOR did over 2 million sales, then stablized at 500k subs. I see TESO doing similier.

    Was SWTOR also released on XBOX and Playstation as well?

     

    You have to factor that in.

    XBOX and PS4 versions might as well be seperate games, seeing as there is no cross platform play....lets say the game sells 4 million copies accross all 3 platforms....that does not mean any 1 person has the ability to play with 4 million other players, which is all that matters when it comes to MMOs.

    In any event, box sales should be the LAST thing anyone cares about when it comes to MMOs.

    Most MMOs are segregated into servers where, at most, you "have the ability to play" with 2-3,000 others. Your cross-platform point is moot.

     

    You're right on your last sentence though: quality and enjoyment are what we should care about.

     

    Box sales and retention are developer considerations, even though here at mmorpg.com, many seem to equate success with retention (maybe it's mostly the retentives that do that?)

     

    It's almost as if individual gamers here can't tell if they're supposed to be having fun unless a large number of other people are also enjoying it. I guess sheep are not really known for their independence of thought, are they?

  • doodphacedoodphace Vancouver, BCPosts: 1,815Member
    Originally posted by Iselin
    Originally posted by doodphace
    Originally posted by DAS1337
    Originally posted by doodphace
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    A million copies sold  perhaps. The Old Republic I believe mustered up about a million and Star Wars is more popular than Elder Scrolls. 

    SWTOR did over 2 million sales, then stablized at 500k subs. I see TESO doing similier.

    Was SWTOR also released on XBOX and Playstation as well?

     

    You have to factor that in.

    XBOX and PS4 versions might as well be seperate games, seeing as there is no cross platform play....lets say the game sells 4 million copies accross all 3 platforms....that does not mean any 1 person has the ability to play with 4 million other players, which is all that matters when it comes to MMOs.

    In any event, box sales should be the LAST thing anyone cares about when it comes to MMOs.

    Most MMOs are segregated into servers where, at most, you "have the ability to play" with 2-3,000 others. Your cross-platform point is moot.

     

    You're right on your last sentence though: quality and enjoyment are what we should care about.

     

    Box sales and retention are developer considerations, even though here at mmorpg.com, many seem to equate success with retention (maybe it's mostly the retentives that do that?)

     

    It's almost as if individual gamers here can't tell if they're supposed to be having fun unless a large number of other people are also enjoying it. I guess sheep are not really known for their independence of thought, are they?

    And most of those MMOs with segregated servers have cross server PvE and PvP...so no....it does not make my point moot at all....my point still stands quite strong tbh.

    My impication in my last sentance though, is that box sales should not be the measurment of anything substantial, retention rates should....just look at SWTOR, AoC, GW2 etc..

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Common
    Originally posted by doodphace

    XBOX and PS4 versions might as well be seperate games, seeing as there is no cross platform play....lets say the game sells 4 million copies accross all 3 platforms....that does not mean any 1 person has the ability to play with 4 million other players, which is all that matters when it comes to MMOs.

    thats not much different than playing on different servers, on the same platform

    unless there's cross server functionality (ie dungeon finder)

     

    no one plays w 4 million players on the same server

  • IselinIselin Vancouver, BCPosts: 5,612Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by doodphace
    Originally posted by Iselin
    Originally posted by doodphace
    Originally posted by DAS1337
    Originally posted by doodphace
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    A million copies sold  perhaps. The Old Republic I believe mustered up about a million and Star Wars is more popular than Elder Scrolls. 

    SWTOR did over 2 million sales, then stablized at 500k subs. I see TESO doing similier.

    Was SWTOR also released on XBOX and Playstation as well?

     

    You have to factor that in.

    XBOX and PS4 versions might as well be seperate games, seeing as there is no cross platform play....lets say the game sells 4 million copies accross all 3 platforms....that does not mean any 1 person has the ability to play with 4 million other players, which is all that matters when it comes to MMOs.

    In any event, box sales should be the LAST thing anyone cares about when it comes to MMOs.

    Most MMOs are segregated into servers where, at most, you "have the ability to play" with 2-3,000 others. Your cross-platform point is moot.

     

    You're right on your last sentence though: quality and enjoyment are what we should care about.

     

    Box sales and retention are developer considerations, even though here at mmorpg.com, many seem to equate success with retention (maybe it's mostly the retentives that do that?)

     

    It's almost as if individual gamers here can't tell if they're supposed to be having fun unless a large number of other people are also enjoying it. I guess sheep are not really known for their independence of thought, are they?

    And most of those MMOs with segregated servers have cross server PvE and PvP...so no....it does not make my point moot at all....my point still stands quite strong tbh.

    Lol. Do you actually play those games? They're all grouped for cross-server queues into "batlegroups" of 4-5 servers...so, 10,000. Next you're going to say the WOW numbers are fake because they keep the Asia, NA, SA and Europe separate - it's like 4 games eh?

     

    Your original post was that it would sell 1 Mil at most. Now you're quibbling about silly details... good try.

  • doodphacedoodphace Vancouver, BCPosts: 1,815Member
    Originally posted by Iselin
    Originally posted by doodphace
    Originally posted by Iselin
    Originally posted by doodphace
    Originally posted by DAS1337
    Originally posted by doodphace
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    A million copies sold  perhaps. The Old Republic I believe mustered up about a million and Star Wars is more popular than Elder Scrolls. 

    SWTOR did over 2 million sales, then stablized at 500k subs. I see TESO doing similier.

    Was SWTOR also released on XBOX and Playstation as well?

     

    You have to factor that in.

    XBOX and PS4 versions might as well be seperate games, seeing as there is no cross platform play....lets say the game sells 4 million copies accross all 3 platforms....that does not mean any 1 person has the ability to play with 4 million other players, which is all that matters when it comes to MMOs.

    In any event, box sales should be the LAST thing anyone cares about when it comes to MMOs.

    Most MMOs are segregated into servers where, at most, you "have the ability to play" with 2-3,000 others. Your cross-platform point is moot.

     

    You're right on your last sentence though: quality and enjoyment are what we should care about.

     

    Box sales and retention are developer considerations, even though here at mmorpg.com, many seem to equate success with retention (maybe it's mostly the retentives that do that?)

     

    It's almost as if individual gamers here can't tell if they're supposed to be having fun unless a large number of other people are also enjoying it. I guess sheep are not really known for their independence of thought, are they?

    And most of those MMOs with segregated servers have cross server PvE and PvP...so no....it does not make my point moot at all....my point still stands quite strong tbh.

    Lol. Do you actually play those games? They're all grouped for cross-server queues into "batlegroups" of 4-5 servers...so, 10,000. Next you're going to say the WOW numbers are fake because they keep the Asia, NA, SA and Europe separate - it's like 4 games eh?

     

    Your original post was that it would sell 1 Mil at most. Now you're quibbling about silly details... good try.

    ....please quote me where I said it would sell 1 mil at most.....why do ppl feel the need to completely fabricate things in order to "win".....

    And no....the MMOs I "play" with cross server PVE and PVP do more than group "4 or 5 servers"......in WoW for instance...I can do every single raid tier with a player from ANY server I want....get that?...ANY of the 200 + servers......this isn't opinion my friend...

    Since when did google become a lost art on these forums?

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