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How many sales one month after release?

IselinIselin Vancouver, BCPosts: 5,618Member Uncommon

Let's see how good mmorpg.com members are at guessing how ESO will do in the first month.

 

Using everything you know about this game and the MMO market in general... what's your guess of total units they sell including pre-orders and the first month after release ( Total PC, MAC, PS4 and XB1 sales.)

 

Post your guess if you want to win the bragging rights image

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Comments

  • RusqueRusque Las Vegas, NVPosts: 2,229Member Uncommon

    Unless they run into production issues, >3 million.

    Skyrim sold something like 10 million copies properly quick - it's a very popular franchise and if they launch it for ps4 and X1 after they launch console gamers will grab it up since launch releases are fairly anemic in the game department (in terms of quantity).

  • bcbullybcbully Westland, MIPosts: 8,281Member Uncommon

    20-30 million

     

    edit - 10-15

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    Around 1 million, peaks at 1.5 million after 2-3 months. Will likely drop to about 500k active subs after about 6 months and then F2P about 1 year after release.
  • moguy2moguy2 Saint Peters, MOPosts: 337Member

    75 billion. Also while we are guessing dumb stuff, who will the next president be. Will we cure cancer by 2050? And can we make an inkless pen that can be purchased for under 34 cents.

    /facepalm

  • TablixTablix DunstablePosts: 32Member

    WAY OVER any of the above. 

     

    As an example of why I think this, Skyrim shipped 5m copies to retailers for launch, that's NOT including digital purchases.  Then consider the MMORPG market is added to the existing fanbase of the ES fanbase.  Then add the multi-platform release to X-Box and PS customers that have never seen ES games before.

     

    I would think 15m box sales in the first 6 months would not be out of the question, with maybe 20% subscribing the duration of that first 6 months.

     

    There will be trolls, but my opinion was asked and this is it.

     

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Yamota
    Around 1 million, peaks at 1.5 million after 2-3 months. Will likely drop to about 500k active subs after about 6 months and then F2P about 1 year after release.

    I'm going to say 2,575,337 sales in the first month. There will be an announcement of the sales and the number of registered users.

    Not sure about the other stuff. 500k subscribers sounds about right but not sure when it'll happen. Ditto for F2P. :-)

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • DeniZgDeniZg ZagrebPosts: 669Member Uncommon

    Skyrim sold over 10 mil. copies, where PC sales were 1.5 million. BUT, Skyirm was B2P.

    They will most likely push over 3 million on all platforms, but I don't see them getting much more due to their business model (P2P).

  • Valgar1Valgar1 Someplace, NYPosts: 324Member
    28 million!

    image
  • TablixTablix DunstablePosts: 32Member
    Originally posted by DeniZg

    Skyrim sold over 10 mil. copies, where PC sales were 1.5 million. BUT, Skyirm was B2P.

    They will most likely push over 3 million on all platforms, but I don't see them getting much more due to their business model (P2P).

    Blizzard STILL does more than this in subscribers with a game nearly a decade old, AND they have charged for expansions along the way.   I think you are one of those people that expects a free lunch.  Look at the budget for the game, then consider they want a 200% profit margin AFTER running costs, then you get an idea of how many they expect to make in the first 12 months.

     

    Stop being a gamer and think like a business person, they are smarter than you give them credit, heck you still think F2P means free :D

     

  • Agnostic42Agnostic42 That place, Overthere, WAPosts: 375Member

    42

     

  • IridescentOrkIridescentOrk Ellicott City, MDPosts: 157Member
    around 5 mil

    gameplay > graphics

  • KarahandrasKarahandras Sible HedinghamPosts: 1,676Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Yamota
    Around 1 million, peaks at 1.5 million after 2-3 months. Will likely drop to about 500k active subs after about 6 months and then F2P about 1 year after release.

    I think this seems a pretty accurate guess atm, could sell more but drop faster too(ala swtor).  Could do better than this but i think that'll depend upon how good their marketing is more than how the actual game is.

  • laseritlaserit Vancouver, BCPosts: 1,952Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Karahandras
    Originally posted by Yamota
    Around 1 million, peaks at 1.5 million after 2-3 months. Will likely drop to about 500k active subs after about 6 months and then F2P about 1 year after release.

    I think this seems a pretty accurate guess atm, could sell more but drop faster too(ala swtor).  Could do better than this but i think that'll depend upon how good their marketing is more than how the actual game is.

    I think that's way low. There is going to be a lot of new PS4's and Xbox 1's out there and a new Elder scroll's game is something many will be salivating over.

     

    5 million + in sales the first month is what I would guess.

     

    Retention is a totally different story.

    "If you make an ass out of yourself, there will always be someone to ride you." - Bruce Lee

  • MMOredfalconMMOredfalcon Mitchell, ONPosts: 132Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by moguy2

    75 billion. Also while we are guessing dumb stuff, who will the next president be. Will we cure cancer by 2050? And can we make an inkless pen that can be purchased for under 34 cents.

    /facepalm

    I'd say one copy of this game for every household with a computer in the world...

    Next president will be Oprah

    We'll cure cancer by 2050 but some new disease will take its place as uncurable

    And no pens for under 34 cents.

     

  • IkisisIkisis Venice, FLPosts: 310Member Uncommon
    I think box sales will do good on the IP alone, but longevity of the game will probably call to 300k or less after the first month.
  • baphametbaphamet omaha, NEPosts: 2,838Member Uncommon

    i would say closer to 5 million at least across all platforms. anyone who picked anything other than over 3 million is kidding themselves.

    the question should be, how many people will be left playing after one year?

  • baphametbaphamet omaha, NEPosts: 2,838Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by Karahandras
    Originally posted by Yamota Around 1 million, peaks at 1.5 million after 2-3 months. Will likely drop to about 500k active subs after about 6 months and then F2P about 1 year after release.
    I think this seems a pretty accurate guess atm, could sell more but drop faster too(ala swtor).  Could do better than this but i think that'll depend upon how good their marketing is more than how the actual game is.

    its ES and on the consoles as well. if this was PC only i think that would be a fair guess, even still a bit low probably.

    ES is a gigantic video game IP, especially on the consoles. anything less than 3 million would be a shock i would think.


  • baphametbaphamet omaha, NEPosts: 2,838Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by Ikisis
    I think box sales will do good on the IP alone, but longevity of the game will probably call to 300k or less after the first month.

    that wont happen, not in one month. that didn't even happen to SWTOR in one month and this game will likely have at least twice the amount of players and is on the consoles too.

    no way no how does this happen unless they release a broken game, literally broken and unplayable i mean.

  • keithiankeithian Los Angeles, CAPosts: 3,042Member Uncommon
    I think without a doubt it will be at least 3M. The question is how much more and how much will a subscription deter console users, especially for those that don't want to pay and Xbox Gold Fee with another subscription fee on top of that...unless Microsoft changes its tune with the XBOX.

    There Is Always Hope!

  • IselinIselin Vancouver, BCPosts: 5,618Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by keithian
    I think without a doubt it will be at least 3M. The question is how much more and how much will a subscription deter console users, especially for those that don't want to pay and Xbox Gold Fee with another subscription fee on top of that...unless Microsoft changes its tune with the XBOX.

    Considering the current champ for quick MMO sales is GW2 and it took them 1 year to hit 3 million, selling that many within 1 month after release would be an astounding figure.

    Still nothing compared to the 15+ Mil GTA V has sold in its first week, but it would be quite an accomplishment...and yes, I think it will do that.

    Keeping with the "meaning of life" theme someone posted above, my guess is 4,242,424.2 image

  • SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member
    If it is released on both consoles as the same time as PC they easily 3+ million.
  • SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member
    Originally posted by Iselin
    Originally posted by keithian
    I think without a doubt it will be at least 3M. The question is how much more and how much will a subscription deter console users, especially for those that don't want to pay and Xbox Gold Fee with another subscription fee on top of that...unless Microsoft changes its tune with the XBOX.

    Considering the current champ for quick MMO sales is GW2 and it took them 1 year to hit 3 million, selling that many within 1 month after release would be an astounding figure.

    Still nothing compared to the 15+ Mil GTA V has sold in its first week, but it would be quite an accomplishment...and yes, I think it will do that.

    Keeping with the "meaning of life" theme someone posted above, my guess is 4,242,424.2 image

    MoP sold 2.7 million within its first week.  Cataclysm sold 3.3 million in 24 hours, and 5 million in the first month.  So 3+ million is easily possibly especially with console sales and an IP like TES.

  • SnarlingWolfSnarlingWolf Thereiam, ARPosts: 2,697Member

    I'd say less than 500k. Maybe, just maybe the 500k to 1 million range.

     

    I think people are taking their feelings about the game and sticking it on the world as a whole. Yes Skyrim was a successful game, but it is apples to oranges. There are a lot of people who love that style of game, but hate the concept of an MMO or P2P.

     

     

     

  • SnarlingWolfSnarlingWolf Thereiam, ARPosts: 2,697Member
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    Originally posted by Iselin
    Originally posted by keithian
    I think without a doubt it will be at least 3M. The question is how much more and how much will a subscription deter console users, especially for those that don't want to pay and Xbox Gold Fee with another subscription fee on top of that...unless Microsoft changes its tune with the XBOX.

    Considering the current champ for quick MMO sales is GW2 and it took them 1 year to hit 3 million, selling that many within 1 month after release would be an astounding figure.

    Still nothing compared to the 15+ Mil GTA V has sold in its first week, but it would be quite an accomplishment...and yes, I think it will do that.

    Keeping with the "meaning of life" theme someone posted above, my guess is 4,242,424.2 image

    MoP sold 2.7 million within its first week.  Cataclysm sold 3.3 million in 24 hours, and 5 million in the first month.  So 3+ million is easily possibly especially with console sales and an IP like TES.

    You are using an MMO which was already running and had like 10+ million users as an example. That doesn't compare at all to a new launch game. It should actually show you how tough it can be to sell copies if you have 10 million users and say "here is an expansion to the game you're currently playing" and only half of them have bought a copy in the first month.

  • SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member
    Originally posted by SnarlingWolf
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    Originally posted by Iselin
    Originally posted by keithian
    I think without a doubt it will be at least 3M. The question is how much more and how much will a subscription deter console users, especially for those that don't want to pay and Xbox Gold Fee with another subscription fee on top of that...unless Microsoft changes its tune with the XBOX.

    Considering the current champ for quick MMO sales is GW2 and it took them 1 year to hit 3 million, selling that many within 1 month after release would be an astounding figure.

    Still nothing compared to the 15+ Mil GTA V has sold in its first week, but it would be quite an accomplishment...and yes, I think it will do that.

    Keeping with the "meaning of life" theme someone posted above, my guess is 4,242,424.2 image

    MoP sold 2.7 million within its first week.  Cataclysm sold 3.3 million in 24 hours, and 5 million in the first month.  So 3+ million is easily possibly especially with console sales and an IP like TES.

    You are using an MMO which was already running and had like 10+ million users as an example. That doesn't compare at all to a new launch game. It should actually show you how tough it can be to sell copies if you have 10 million users and say "here is an expansion to the game you're currently playing" and only half of them have bought a copy in the first month.

    Players in China don't buy the game which accounts for the discrepancy, they get the client for free.  SWTOR sold 2 million in its first month, I don't see why ESO can't get 3 million especially with the hype around it.  See their Facebook likes?  Even SWTOR's Facebook likes at launch dwarfs what ESO has.

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