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Some basic math... how many people are locked out of the game?

Apparently, SE expected 800k sales, and got 6 million sales(post launch).

Now, there are 25 JP servers and 25 NA/EU servers. Let's assume that all 50 of them are full (even though we know the JP servers are not).

SE apparently broke the record for a japanese made game by have 190k concurrent players. First off, that is only 3800 players per server. I know, "only", but still.

 

Assuming we accept these numbers, that means that out of 6 million  sales, less than 200k people can play at any given time. 5.8 million people are locked out of the game? And this is minor?

Well, I haven't seen an official number saying 6 million(even though that is the number I keep seeing bandied about on the official forums) so let us go with the more modest number of 1 million(The number of sign-ups they had for beta 4?)

Out of 1 million sales only 200k can play at any given time, which means 4/5 people are locked out... And given that people leave their characters logged in indefinitely so as not to lose their spot, it means 4/5 people are locked out essentially permanently.

 

Now, how much extra capacity do you guys think they need to scale from 200k to 6 million? How long do you think it will take them, and how much patience do you think people have?

How about if it is just 1 million they need to scale up to? Same questions... How long do you think it will take them?

The news articles talk about how they are at 187k, and expect to be able to support 200k soon (http://www.dualshockers.com/2013/08/28/final-fantasy-xiv-a-realm-reborn-shatters-more-records-187000-concurrent-connections-200000-expected-soon/)... but 200k is a drop in the bucket only. I find this very worrying.

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Comments

  • LissylLissyl Peru, INPosts: 271Member Common
    6 million sounds...off.  May I ask where this number is coming from?  I can't imagine 5.8 million people are locked out.  That defies comprehension.
  • blackburn11blackburn11 Spring, TXPosts: 46Member
    May i ask where you got the info about them expecting 800k sales and have sold 6 million?  Just curious.
  • Mors-SubitaMors-Subita montreal, QCPosts: 500Member
    Originally posted by blackburn11
    May i ask where you got the info about them expecting 800k sales and have sold 6 million?  Just curious.

    As I said in my post, I haven't seen an official source for that(although I haven't looked at all) but those are the numbers that people keep bringing up on the official forums (usually white knights using those numbers to justify why this is such a crapfest).

    image

  • blackburn11blackburn11 Spring, TXPosts: 46Member

    It wouldnt surprise me if NA/EU numbers went off the charts as launch neared.  I think there is a huge demand for new MMO's these days.  I also think that breaking the trend of action mmo and going tab targeting was a good idea.  People dont mind WoW and EQ familiarity (especially after a few rounds with the chaos that is action combat parties).

    I am just wondering what the numbers really are.  Should be interesting to see.  Just hope a healthy, good community is left standing after the initial rush has come and gone.

  • blackburn11blackburn11 Spring, TXPosts: 46Member
    Originally posted by Mors-Subita
    Originally posted by blackburn11
    May i ask where you got the info about them expecting 800k sales and have sold 6 million?  Just curious.

    As I said in my post, I haven't seen an official source for that(although I haven't looked at all) but those are the numbers that people keep bringing up on the official forums (usually white knights using those numbers to justify why this is such a crapfest).

    I see.  sorry for not reading you original post more carefully.  I know that lots of people are not able to log.  Many casuals that dont frequent forums and just try to get on.  When they cant, they just go on about their business.

    heh heh... I am sure SE knows they have to get their act together fast.  Cause those big numbers wont be patient long.  Its nice to get that initial lump sum, but the key is to trying to maintain as many as possible.

  • caremuchlesscaremuchless Crestline, CAPosts: 603Member
    wow.... 6 million bought and maybe 200k can play, ouch .

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  • BadSpockBadSpock Somewhere, MIPosts: 7,974Member

    Well, if we are doing napkin math here...

    FFXIV has/had supposedly about 190k concurrent users at one point or another.

    GW2 announced they hit 460K.

    GW2 has sold (according to them) about 3.5 million copies.

    190 to 460 is about 41% of concurrent users,

    so 41% of 3.5 million sold is probably close to 1.43 million copies sold.

     

    If out of 3.5 million users 460k are online at a time in GW2, that is around 13% of your user base logged in at once.

    13% of 1.43 million users is about 186k

    So that sounds pretty damn close to me.

    So I'm guessing about 1.5 million sold so far, and peak concurrency of around 185k so probably only about 5k or so players are ever "locked out" at a time.

    Or 0.3% of the player base.

    190k/50 servers = 3800 per server.

    Spread those 5,000 people who are trying to play and can't across the 50 servers, about a 100 people per server are stuck in queue or unable to log in at any given time- which is probably about right.

  • LissylLissyl Peru, INPosts: 271Member Common

    I'm confident there'll be a good amount of us still standing after churn wears through in a month or two.  Regarding the numbers, I've been waiting to see what kind of numbers were sold; I had guessed about a million, after all the Comments section people posting on the na.s-e site.  But 6 million?  That would be 3 times what GW2 sold and, while I don't play GW2, I would be -handily- surprised to see it triple-trounced in a week.  I'm optimistic, but that seems a bit more on the insane side! =P

     

    I wonder how many people there are like me who don't even -try- to log on during the day, thus avoiding the log-in errors.  I know a small handful of us who do that, and I can't imagine we're the only people in North America doing so.

  • Viper482Viper482 Somewhere, FLPosts: 995Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by BadSpock

    Well, if we are doing napkin math here...

    FFXIV has/had supposedly about 190k concurrent users at one point or another.

    GW2 announced they hit 460K.

    GW2 has sold (according to them) about 3.5 million copies.

    190 to 460 is about 41% of concurrent users,

    so 41% of 3.5 million sold is probably close to 1.43 million copies sold.

     

    If out of 3.5 million users 460k are online at a time in GW2, that is around 13% of your user base logged in at once.

    13% of 1.43 million users is about 186k

    So that sounds pretty damn close to me.

    So I'm guessing about 1.5 million sold so far, and peak concurrency of around 185k so probably only about 5k or so players are ever "locked out" at a time.

    Or 0.3% of the player base.

    190k/50 servers = 3800 per server.

    Spread those 5,000 people who are trying to play and can't across the 50 servers, about a 100 people per server are stuck in queue or unable to log in at any given time- which is probably about right.

    Sorry but there is no way it is only 100 people locked out at a time and competing with each other to get in, it would be MUCH easier to do so if this were the case.

  • XssivXssiv Haskell, NJPosts: 359Member
    Originally posted by BadSpock

    Well, if we are doing napkin math here...

    FFXIV has/had supposedly about 190k concurrent users at one point or another.

    GW2 announced they hit 460K.

    GW2 has sold (according to them) about 3.5 million copies.

    190 to 460 is about 41% of concurrent users,

    so 41% of 3.5 million sold is probably close to 1.43 million copies sold.

     

    If out of 3.5 million users 460k are online at a time in GW2, that is around 13% of your user base logged in at once.

    13% of 1.43 million users is about 186k

    So that sounds pretty damn close to me.

    So I'm guessing about 1.5 million sold so far, and peak concurrency of around 185k so probably only about 5k or so players are ever "locked out" at a time.

    Or 0.3% of the player base.

    190k/50 servers = 3800 per server.

    Spread those 5,000 people who are trying to play and can't across the 50 servers, about a 100 people per server are stuck in queue or unable to log in - which is probably about right.

    +1

     

    It's amazing what happens when people actually stop for a second and use some rational thought.  

     

     

  • Mors-SubitaMors-Subita montreal, QCPosts: 500Member
    Originally posted by BadSpock

    Well, if we are doing napkin math here...

    FFXIV has/had supposedly about 190k concurrent users at one point or another.

    GW2 announced they hit 460K.

    GW2 has sold (according to them) about 3.5 million copies.

    190 to 460 is about 41% of concurrent users,

    so 41% of 3.5 million sold is probably close to 1.43 million copies sold.

     

    Not sure if your GW2 to SE analogy is apropos.

    GW2 has sold 3.5 million copies since launch, true... but it is not subscription based, so the question is how many active accounts(players who were still actively playing the game) were there at the time when that 460k was recorded.

    I know during head start there were 1 million sales, and 400k concurrent users.

    Given that we don't have numbers on actually active accounts, it would make more sense to compare head-start against head-start... 

     

    So if we use your math for that, that would make it 47.5 %.

    if we accept that the ratio of concurrent users holds true for the sales (which I am not sure we can since they have artificially capped it out, whereas GW2 let everyone play immediately, even if it was on an overflow) that would put their total sales at 475000, of which. That would put you at 61k users... but that doesn't jive with the 187k number that they put out.

    Also, GW2 opened in more regions and with more of a time zone spread than FFXIV did...

    image

  • DrakynnDrakynn The Pas, MBPosts: 2,030Member
    Originally posted by Xssiv
    Originally posted by BadSpock

    Well, if we are doing napkin math here...

    FFXIV has/had supposedly about 190k concurrent users at one point or another.

    GW2 announced they hit 460K.

    GW2 has sold (according to them) about 3.5 million copies.

    190 to 460 is about 41% of concurrent users,

    so 41% of 3.5 million sold is probably close to 1.43 million copies sold.

     

    If out of 3.5 million users 460k are online at a time in GW2, that is around 13% of your user base logged in at once.

    13% of 1.43 million users is about 186k

    So that sounds pretty damn close to me.

    So I'm guessing about 1.5 million sold so far, and peak concurrency of around 185k so probably only about 5k or so players are ever "locked out" at a time.

    Or 0.3% of the player base.

    190k/50 servers = 3800 per server.

    Spread those 5,000 people who are trying to play and can't across the 50 servers, about a 100 people per server are stuck in queue or unable to log in - which is probably about right.

    +1

     

    It's amazing what happens when people actually stop for a second and use some rational thought.  

     

     

    Wouldn't rational thought require require reliable,verified SE data?

    Not to mention the GW2 data used is from two separate reports and times and  because it's not subscription based have no relation to each other.

    It's like using the total number of WoW units sold and then using the concurrent login stats of August 2008 to try and derive information.

    It's not so much basic math as fantasy math.

    On the other side of the coin if the numbers are even vaguely correct then SE has some excuse for it's post launch problems but is not excused from compensating players for play time lost.

    It does not excuse their early access problems though since  those number were much more quantifiable before early access began.

  • XssivXssiv Haskell, NJPosts: 359Member
    Originally posted by Drakynn
    Originally posted by Xssiv
    Originally posted by BadSpock

    Well, if we are doing napkin math here...

    FFXIV has/had supposedly about 190k concurrent users at one point or another.

    GW2 announced they hit 460K.

    GW2 has sold (according to them) about 3.5 million copies.

    190 to 460 is about 41% of concurrent users,

    so 41% of 3.5 million sold is probably close to 1.43 million copies sold.

     

    If out of 3.5 million users 460k are online at a time in GW2, that is around 13% of your user base logged in at once.

    13% of 1.43 million users is about 186k

    So that sounds pretty damn close to me.

    So I'm guessing about 1.5 million sold so far, and peak concurrency of around 185k so probably only about 5k or so players are ever "locked out" at a time.

    Or 0.3% of the player base.

    190k/50 servers = 3800 per server.

    Spread those 5,000 people who are trying to play and can't across the 50 servers, about a 100 people per server are stuck in queue or unable to log in - which is probably about right.

    +1

     

    It's amazing what happens when people actually stop for a second and use some rational thought.  

     

     

    Wouldn't rational thought require require reliable,verified SE data?

    Not to mention the GW2 data used is from two separate reports and times and  because it's not subscription based have no relation to each other.

    It's like using the total number of WoW units sold and then using the concurrent login stats of August 2008 to try and derive information.

    It's not so much basic math as fantasy math.

    On the other side of the coin if the numbers are even vaguely correct then SE has some excuse for it's post launch problems but is not excused from compensating players for play time lost.

    It does not excuse their early access problems though since  those number were much more quantifiable before early access began.

    It's certainly a whole lot better than posting that 5.8 million people are locked out of FF based on an article that only lists a concurrent connection number. 

  • StrayfeStrayfe Los Angeles, CAPosts: 189Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Mors-Subita

    Apparently, SE expected 800k sales, and got 6 million sales(post launch).

    Now, there are 25 JP servers and 25 NA/EU servers. Let's assume that all 50 of them are full (even though we know the JP servers are not).

    SE apparently broke the record for a japanese made game by have 190k concurrent players. First off, that is only 3800 players per server. I know, "only", but still.

     

    Assuming we accept these numbers, that means that out of 6 million  sales, less than 200k people can play at any given time. 5.8 million people are locked out of the game? And this is minor?

    Well, I haven't seen an official number saying 6 million(even though that is the number I keep seeing bandied about on the official forums) so let us go with the more modest number of 1 million(The number of sign-ups they had for beta 4?)

    Out of 1 million sales only 200k can play at any given time, which means 4/5 people are locked out... And given that people leave their characters logged in indefinitely so as not to lose their spot, it means 4/5 people are locked out essentially permanently.

     

    Now, how much extra capacity do you guys think they need to scale from 200k to 6 million? How long do you think it will take them, and how much patience do you think people have?

    How about if it is just 1 million they need to scale up to? Same questions... How long do you think it will take them?

    The news articles talk about how they are at 187k, and expect to be able to support 200k soon (http://www.dualshockers.com/2013/08/28/final-fantasy-xiv-a-realm-reborn-shatters-more-records-187000-concurrent-connections-200000-expected-soon/)... but 200k is a drop in the bucket only. I find this very worrying.

    Come on man.  I love FFXIV, and I hope they get the server issues fixed as much as anyone, but if FFXIV had sold 6 million copies already that would mean the following:

    FFXIV sold more than DOUBLE what Mists of Pandaria did in its first week.

    FFXIV is the fastest selling PC GAME IN HISTORY (previous record holder: Diablo III with 6.2 million in one week.  6 million in 2 days?  come on.)

    FFXIV is nearly the fastest selling VIDEO GAME EVER (only Call of Duty: Black Ops at 7 million in its first 24 hours is higher)

    FFXIV sold almost twice as many copies in 2 days as GW2 sold in a year.

    FFXIV sold more than 5 times as many copies as SWTOR in the first week.

    World of Warcraft, at launch, had 88 servers.  FFXIV has 50.  World of Warcraft had 750k subscribers after the first month.

     

    My guess for FFXIV would be in the neighborhood of 1.5-2 million.

     

     

  • DrakynnDrakynn The Pas, MBPosts: 2,030Member
    Originally posted by Xssiv
    Originally posted by Drakynn
    Originally posted by Xssiv
    Originally posted by BadSpock

    Well, if we are doing napkin math here...

    FFXIV has/had supposedly about 190k concurrent users at one point or another.

    GW2 announced they hit 460K.

    GW2 has sold (according to them) about 3.5 million copies.

    190 to 460 is about 41% of concurrent users,

    so 41% of 3.5 million sold is probably close to 1.43 million copies sold.

     

    If out of 3.5 million users 460k are online at a time in GW2, that is around 13% of your user base logged in at once.

    13% of 1.43 million users is about 186k

    So that sounds pretty damn close to me.

    So I'm guessing about 1.5 million sold so far, and peak concurrency of around 185k so probably only about 5k or so players are ever "locked out" at a time.

    Or 0.3% of the player base.

    190k/50 servers = 3800 per server.

    Spread those 5,000 people who are trying to play and can't across the 50 servers, about a 100 people per server are stuck in queue or unable to log in - which is probably about right.

    +1

     

    It's amazing what happens when people actually stop for a second and use some rational thought.  

     

     

    Wouldn't rational thought require require reliable,verified SE data?

    Not to mention the GW2 data used is from two separate reports and times and  because it's not subscription based have no relation to each other.

    It's like using the total number of WoW units sold and then using the concurrent login stats of August 2008 to try and derive information.

    It's not so much basic math as fantasy math.

    On the other side of the coin if the numbers are even vaguely correct then SE has some excuse for it's post launch problems but is not excused from compensating players for play time lost.

    It does not excuse their early access problems though since  those number were much more quantifiable before early access began.

    It's certainly a whole lot better than posting that 5.8 million people are locked out of FF based on an article that only lists a concurrent connection number. 

    no it's not better it's just as bad and probably just as false.

  • IkedaIkeda Largo, FLPosts: 2,204Member Uncommon

    What the hell are you people crying about?  I logged in and created during peak lastnight.  No issues.  Figured maybe something was up so I created a new character on another NA server.  Logged in, played for 4-5 hours this morning.  No issues.  

    Unless the whining is because you want specific servers.... ah.. that must be it.

    See because everyone is entitled to whatever server they want.... regardless if it'll degrade people who were on that server before you....

    I like it.  At some point I gotta thank Taus01 cause otherwise I'd never have picked it up to begin with.

    SWTOR: F2P or Premium? Want Galactic Strongholds early? http://www.swtor.com/r/LbMdN7 Use the referral for 7 days of subscriber access. Unlock your GS today!

  • AlamarethAlamareth Cincinnati, OHPosts: 570Member

    The logic of the OP is just....terrible.  Unverified sales data, misuse of concurrent use data, ect.

    BadSpock at least has the proper logical framework.

  • caremuchlesscaremuchless Crestline, CAPosts: 603Member
    Originally posted by BadSpock

    Well, if we are doing napkin math here...

    FFXIV has/had supposedly about 190k concurrent users at one point or another.

    GW2 announced they hit 460K.

    GW2 has sold (according to them) about 3.5 million copies.

    190 to 460 is about 41% of concurrent users,

    so 41% of 3.5 million sold is probably close to 1.43 million copies sold.

     

    If out of 3.5 million users 460k are online at a time in GW2, that is around 13% of your user base logged in at once.

    13% of 1.43 million users is about 186k

    So that sounds pretty damn close to me.

    So I'm guessing about 1.5 million sold so far, and peak concurrency of around 185k so probably only about 5k or so players are ever "locked out" at a time.

    Or 0.3% of the player base.

    190k/50 servers = 3800 per server.

    Spread those 5,000 people who are trying to play and can't across the 50 servers, about a 100 people per server are stuck in queue or unable to log in at any given time- which is probably about right.

    I understand where you got 41% of GW2 users from, but where did you get 13% from?

     

    How about this, by your reasoning, if 6 million bought FF and if were using the same concurrent player percentage of GW2, then the math, would be 41 percent of 6 million. That is roughly 2.4 million people who aren't playing who want to play.

    image

  • BadSpockBadSpock Somewhere, MIPosts: 7,974Member
    Originally posted by Alamareth

    The logic of the OP is just....terrible.  Unverified sales data, misuse of concurrent use data, ect.

    BadSpock at least has the proper logical framework.

    Logic is what I do best.

    Created a new thread for more logical discussion.

    *caremuch-

    13% is concurrent users versus total sales for GW2.

    41% is difference between GW2 sales and projected FFXIV sales.

  • Mors-SubitaMors-Subita montreal, QCPosts: 500Member
    Originally posted by Strayfe
    Originally posted by Mors-Subita

     

    Come on man.  I love FFXIV, and I hope they get the server issues fixed as much as anyone, but if FFXIV had sold 6 million copies already that would mean the following:

    FFXIV sold more than DOUBLE what Mists of Pandaria did in its first week.

    FFXIV is the fastest selling PC GAME IN HISTORY (previous record holder: Diablo III with 6.2 million in one week.  6 million in 2 days?  come on.)

    FFXIV is nearly the fastest selling VIDEO GAME EVER (only Call of Duty: Black Ops at 7 million in its first 24 hours is higher)

    FFXIV sold almost twice as many copies in 2 days as GW2 sold in a year.

    FFXIV sold more than 5 times as many copies as SWTOR in the first week.

    World of Warcraft, at launch, had 88 servers.  FFXIV has 50.  World of Warcraft had 750k subscribers after the first month.

     

    My guess for FFXIV would be in the neighborhood of 1.5-2 million.

    As I said in my post, that is the figure I saw people saying on the official forums. I tried to grab some links from the forums, but they are currently down for maintenance.

    image

  • RusqueRusque Las Vegas, NVPosts: 2,229Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by BadSpock
    Originally posted by Alamareth

    The logic of the OP is just....terrible.  Unverified sales data, misuse of concurrent use data, ect.

    BadSpock at least has the proper logical framework.

    Logic is what I do best.

    Created a new thread for more logical discussion.

    *caremuch-

    13% is concurrent users versus total sales for GW2.

    41% is difference between GW2 sales and projected FFXIV sales.

    If logic is what you do best, then why does your avatar say, "Logic be damned." and your name is BadSpock?

     

    Wouldn't you be GoodSpock with the phrase, "Logic be praised." be more . . . logical?

     I'm just messing around btw, in case it wasn't obvious.

  • thinktank001thinktank001 oasisPosts: 2,027Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Mors-Subita

    Now, how much extra capacity do you guys think they need to scale from 200k to 6 million? How long do you think it will take them, and how much patience do you think people have?

    How about if it is just 1 million they need to scale up to? Same questions... How long do you think it will take them?

    The news articles talk about how they are at 187k, and expect to be able to support 200k soon (http://www.dualshockers.com/2013/08/28/final-fantasy-xiv-a-realm-reborn-shatters-more-records-187000-concurrent-connections-200000-expected-soon/)... but 200k is a drop in the bucket only. I find this very worrying.

     

    You know the answer to your first question.  What other game has 6 million+ subs, and how many servers do they have?  I wouldn't expect them to ever have that much capacity, but if they did ramp it up that much it would probably take years.

     

    All MMO servers have 12k - 15k account capacity and 3k - 5k concurrent capacity unless they are a single shard.

     

    If they were to ramp up to 1 million concurrent users they would need at least 200 servers to sustain a population of this size.

     

     

     

  • angerbeaverangerbeaver Dorval, QCPosts: 871Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Ikeda

    What the hell are you people crying about?  I logged in and created during peak lastnight.  No issues.  Figured maybe something was up so I created a new character on another NA server.  Logged in, played for 4-5 hours this morning.  No issues.  

    Unless the whining is because you want specific servers.... ah.. that must be it.

    See because everyone is entitled to whatever server they want.... regardless if it'll degrade people who were on that server before you....

    I like it.  At some point I gotta thank Taus01 cause otherwise I'd never have picked it up to begin with.

    Kudos to your luck. I have tried playing during down time and peak time. It sometimes takes me about an hour of trying to get in. I did not get to play during pre-release much and even less post release. 

  • BadSpockBadSpock Somewhere, MIPosts: 7,974Member
    Originally posted by Rusque
    Originally posted by BadSpock
    Originally posted by Alamareth

    The logic of the OP is just....terrible.  Unverified sales data, misuse of concurrent use data, ect.

    BadSpock at least has the proper logical framework.

    Logic is what I do best.

    Created a new thread for more logical discussion.

    *caremuch-

    13% is concurrent users versus total sales for GW2.

    41% is difference between GW2 sales and projected FFXIV sales.

    If logic is what you do best, then why does your avatar say, "Logic be damned." and your name is BadSpock?

    Wouldn't you be GoodSpock with the phrase, "Logic be praised." be more . . . logical?

     I'm just messing around btw, in case it wasn't obvious.

    If I say something smart I can take credit for it via logic as a Vulcan.

    If I say something stupid, I can say "well I'm bad Spock so logic be damned!"

    So no matter what, I win.

  • StrangerousStrangerous ny, ILPosts: 165Member

    here is the current official list of realms you cant create character on

    http://na.finalfantasyxiv.com/lodestone/news/detail/6537214bce8bc4923f69e66d0f9e63f09f223593

     

    hope this helps.

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