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The population appears to be growing still.

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  • MrSaltyMrSalty South Windsor, CTPosts: 39Member Uncommon
    people who quit ,who log back in for 10 minutes to see the game is still trash doesnt mean the population is growing.
  • OmnifishOmnifish LondonPosts: 616Member
    Originally posted by Volkon
    Originally posted by coretex666
    Originally posted by Volkon
    Now we're up to at least four FULL servers again. A few months back they boosted the server caps when eight or so wound up full, and the eyes of any dedicated WvW players will assure you they've never been reduced. This is definitely a good sign for the game, but sadly it also means if we want to squeeze more guilds in for WvW on JQ we'll have to organize black out events again, or possibly find times it dips to very high as time zones log off...

    Maybe it is supposed to appear to be growing.

    Have they published any numbers related to population or server caps? What number does "FULL" stand for? What about 3, 6, 9 months ago?

    I thought they publish only financial info as they are obliged to by law.

    Maybe its population is really growing which would be great for the game and its community, but it is not possible to determine with practically no information besides server status which noone but ANET knows what it stands for.

    Scepticism is not necessarily a bad thing you know.

     

    Like I'd mentioned before, we don't know what "Full" means as a number. However, there are a few things we do know...

     

    1. The population is based on people logged on to the server at that point in time. The fact that server populations can fluctuate over the course of a day shows that, as do the fact that "blackout events" work to manipulate the population shown.  Wrong 

    https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/gw2/Server-capacity-increased-again As has been discussed before you wouldn't have a clue about how many players are actually playing due to how ANET judge activity levels on their servers

    2. They've been increasing the amount of people allowed per server over time, at least three times that I can recall. The most recent took us from something like eight full servers and the rest very high to having a bunch fall to medium and the fullest ones very high.  If they can increase server capacity they can reduce capacity as well, to make the game appear, 'fuller', then it is in comparison to before. It's a marketing tool to save face, which they borrowed for Fun.com when AOC started tanking 

    3. They've never decreased the population caps on the servers. Believe me, the WvW crowd, especially the Tier one crowd, would notice this and scream bloody murder. The answer to this is in the above link as well but the simple fact is that noone in WvWvW woiuld notice if there was a decrease due to the above stated reasons.

    So based on observation in lieu of actual numbers we still can see that the overall population of the game is indeed growing. I think it was Blackgate to be the first to recently hit Full again, then TC, followed by SoR and JQ... that order may not be 100% accurate, but it gives a visual of the growth. All of this is based on your undying need to validate your chosen love of ANET to internet people on this forum.  You have no clue and nor do I. The only real way to check success if through annual reports, but I'm sure if they come back positive you'll be the first one to tell us all about it.. 

     

    This looks like a job for....The Riviera Kid!

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer ChairPosts: 5,590Member Uncommon

    https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/wuv/wuv/Blackout-events

    Nothing conclusive. Just 2 sides to yes it works, no it doesn't and a bunch of reasons but nothing that explains what mechanics are involved. At least, nothnig official. Although, I do believe they happened and that people were able to move at that time. I just think there is more to it.

    (I'm assuming that's your thread Volkon?)

  • VolkonVolkon Sterling, VAPosts: 3,788Member
    Originally posted by GeezerGamer

    https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/wuv/wuv/Blackout-events

    Nothing conclusive. Just 2 sides to yes it works, no it doesn't and a bunch of reasons but nothing that explains what mechanics are involved. At least, nothnig official. Although, I do believe they happened and that people were able to move at that time. I just think there is more to it.

    (I'm assuming that's your thread Volkon?)

     

    Oh hey, it is. Cool, thanks Geez.

    Oderint, dum metuant.
    image

  • VolkonVolkon Sterling, VAPosts: 3,788Member
    Originally posted by Omnifish
    Originally posted by Volkon
    Originally posted by coretex666
    Originally posted by Volkon
    Now we're up to at least four FULL servers again. A few months back they boosted the server caps when eight or so wound up full, and the eyes of any dedicated WvW players will assure you they've never been reduced. This is definitely a good sign for the game, but sadly it also means if we want to squeeze more guilds in for WvW on JQ we'll have to organize black out events again, or possibly find times it dips to very high as time zones log off...

    Maybe it is supposed to appear to be growing.

    Have they published any numbers related to population or server caps? What number does "FULL" stand for? What about 3, 6, 9 months ago?

    I thought they publish only financial info as they are obliged to by law.

    Maybe its population is really growing which would be great for the game and its community, but it is not possible to determine with practically no information besides server status which noone but ANET knows what it stands for.

    Scepticism is not necessarily a bad thing you know.

     

    Like I'd mentioned before, we don't know what "Full" means as a number. However, there are a few things we do know...

     

    1. The population is based on people logged on to the server at that point in time. The fact that server populations can fluctuate over the course of a day shows that, as do the fact that "blackout events" work to manipulate the population shown.  Wrong 

    https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/gw2/Server-capacity-increased-again As has been discussed before you wouldn't have a clue about how many players are actually playing due to how ANET judge activity levels on their servers
    Eh... what's wrong? It's a demonstrated fact that blackout events work to manipulate the server status. 

    2. They've been increasing the amount of people allowed per server over time, at least three times that I can recall. The most recent took us from something like eight full servers and the rest very high to having a bunch fall to medium and the fullest ones very high.  If they can increase server capacity they can reduce capacity as well, to make the game appear, 'fuller', then it is in comparison to before. It's a marketing tool to save face, which they borrowed for Fun.com when AOC started tanking 

    Actually they couldn't. Accounts are still tied to the servers whether or not people are playing them, so reducing the cap puts them at risk of people trying to come back later and blowing things up.

    3. They've never decreased the population caps on the servers. Believe me, the WvW crowd, especially the Tier one crowd, would notice this and scream bloody murder. The answer to this is in the above link as well but the simple fact is that noone in WvWvW woiuld notice if there was a decrease due to the above stated reasons.

    That's a lie. It would be noticed because it would affect the flow of players. 

    So based on observation in lieu of actual numbers we still can see that the overall population of the game is indeed growing. I think it was Blackgate to be the first to recently hit Full again, then TC, followed by SoR and JQ... that order may not be 100% accurate, but it gives a visual of the growth. All of this is based on your undying need to validate your chosen love of ANET to internet people on this forum.  You have no clue and nor do I. The only real way to check success if through annual reports, but I'm sure if they come back positive you'll be the first one to tell us all about it.. 

     It's based on observation. We've seen cap increases, we've seen blackout events, we've seen servers refill as more people come in. 

     

    Oderint, dum metuant.
    image

  • mightyjoxermightyjoxer San Jose, CAPosts: 34Member

    For all the "GW2 is in decline" Come on out on Friday night and see for yourself how "Dead" these servers are.

    This game can also spread population very easily since all of it is enjoyable( PVE Events and Dungeons/Fractals , Spvp in the Mists, World vs World)

    Only reason I can see for decline is no easy way to Guild v Guild. And even those events are even happening. Like this Guild v Guild German Bollaball match http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcVzFLl77zM&feature=player_embedded (and yes that "ball" is a player) =)

     

     

     

  • SukiyakiSukiyaki GreenwichPosts: 1,398Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass

    Gaffney the lead guy behind WildStar and founder of Turbine always says good MMOs lose 5% to 10% of their player base every month.  Mediocre and bad ones lose more than that a month.  So unless the game is selling as much as it did previous it is dropping steadlily.

    Let us say GW2 is actually a "good" MMO.  It would have lost 60% of its players in a year period.  Now looks at sales:

    Q4 '12 = 51,290

    Q1 '13 = 14,376

    Q2 '13 = 11,459

    Total = 77,125 

    This is sales figures in Korean Won but to make it simple just treat this as sales.  So ANet lost 20% from Q1 '13 to Q2 '13.  And lost 72% from Q4 '12 to Q1 '13.  If we apply the 5% churn to GW2 a month it lost 60% of its play base (best case scenario but isn't making up for that loss with increased sales.

    1. Break down for intra group transactions of the parent, not consolidated sales record of the entire group. Someone who pretends to be a big ActivisionBlizzard investor on every second account, should at least notice that he is missing out more than half of GW2s sales. But we are at trends, so ignoring a 100 million USD GW2 earned in total is not as much of a relevant factor.

    2. 5% loss per month doesn't accumulate to theoretical 60% loss, but only 45% loss even in the 11 months since release, leave alone just 9 since Q42012. [mod edit] And its was a statement regarding a subscription based game on top of it in steady decline for years called WoW, not "good MMOs".

     [mod edit]

    You are just spinning the numbers again. If  game loses 5% on earnings, its means it retained 95% of the previous sales.  A B2P game does not have to "lose less than 5%" earnings per month, it has to "retain at least 5%" every month of the initial sales to indicate a break out even of sales vs losses in your theory or do even better. Again aside from cashshop.

    Starting at 100 player and 5 player joining the game is already enough to compensate for 5 player leaving the game. The 95 others from before do not need to buy the entire game again every month on top of that, just to make the playernumbers break even. Only over 5% sales retention is what your argument is looking for, for a B2P game. You twist the numbers and act like it takes at least 95% sales retention, just to make GW2 appear bad. What a convenient error.

    A mere 5% sales loss would indicate a 90% growth for B2P (aside from cash shop sales again and you know nothing about them, not even the people who played and play this game do).

    GW2 is a B2P game. GW2 earned steadily much more than 5% of its initial sales every month. By your oversimplfied argument alone, GW2 is very likely to be growing and/or making tons of money  in the cash shop. Based on the Q2 2013 sales report at best you could claim GW2 is not potentially growing as fast as before, but you could never claim that its not growing at all "based" on them.  [mod edit]

  • SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member
    Originally posted by Sukiyaki
     

    GW2 is a B2P game. GW2 earned steadily much more than 5% of its initial sales every month. By your oversimplfied argument alone, GW2 is very likely to be growing and/or making tons of money  in the cash shop. Based on the Q2 2013 sales report at best you could claim GW2 is not potentially growing as fast as before, but you could never claim that its not growing at all "based" on them. Thank you for proving that point even from the most rabid kind of WoW fanboys side of view.

     

    I consider building an argument on basis of facts and deliberately making incoherent conlusions or paraphrasing information in misleading ways, to fabricate pseudo arguments as entirely different things. Dont bother to claim you resort to the prior, when near all you do is fall back to the later.

    Well the thing you missed was the huge drop in active users after the first quarter 40% to 50%, it then churns 5% to 10% a month.  Obviously, this is not "evidence", it was said by some MMO developers.  And off course it is over simplified, because that is how the data is presented.  The best thing for companies to do would be to release the info themselves, but why would they if the news is bad?

    Where exactly is your proof of this "growth", all the facts say otherwise.  Are these incoherent conclusions or fabrication? 

    Speaking of incoherent conclusions. Blizzard fanboy? What?  Blizzard investor?  What?  

  • Loke666Loke666 MalmöPosts: 18,000Member Uncommon

    My server is really busy and annoyingly good in WvW (we been the red side forever and I still need 1 keep in one borderland and 3 in the other to get my 100%).

    I am not sure if the population is rising though, it seems to be about the same as september last year to me. There was a drop last winter and late autumn though but at least my servers seems to filled up again since then.

    I play on Seafarers rest BTW.

  • SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member
    Originally posted by Sukiyaki
     

    The thing is YOU missed them I was breaking up the flaws in YOUR argument. The deconstruction of your flawed fabrication of an "fact and evidence based" argument you conveniently deleted from the post.

    Now suddenly 40-50% loss come into the equations after the math horribly failed. Based on "some developers said". How convenient.

    Where is you proof of this "decline"? Don't dodge the fact YOUR entire argument failed. You where making the claims. I pointed out if someone didn't fail at logic and math, your argument would at best imply GW2 could still and is more likely to be growing and would not proof it is in decline at all. Your response was deleting it from the quote and pretend I just critizised your argument and just made claims in regards to the opposite.

    Don't pretend no one knows your endless history of sockpuppet accounts you constantly keep trashing non-Blizzard and glorifying Blizzard games with here and elsewhere. After more than half a decade and closing up to at least tenthousand of post just trashing or slandering the competition alone you ought to believe people would notice no matter the facade of new account names.

    I actually stated specifically it was what Jeremy Gaffney stated, you might want to go back and read what I said.  It was in the latest MMORPG Online panel.  I have about 5-6 sources that show the decline from the abysmal population in sPvP servers, to website traffic, to sites like xfire and Raptr, to sales figures.  You on the other hand really don't have any proof for growth?  Do you?  Seems like you backed of the "growth" statement now. 

    Oh yeah I have a dozen accounts here glorifying Blizzard games and trashing non-Blizzard games.  Sure buddy, I am a paid poster.  I am also President Obama.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,818Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    Originally posted by Sukiyaki
     

    The thing is YOU missed them I was breaking up the flaws in YOUR argument. The deconstruction of your flawed fabrication of an "fact and evidence based" argument you conveniently deleted from the post.

    Now suddenly 40-50% loss come into the equations after the math horribly failed. Based on "some developers said". How convenient.

    Where is you proof of this "decline"? Don't dodge the fact YOUR entire argument failed. You where making the claims. I pointed out if someone didn't fail at logic and math, your argument would at best imply GW2 could still and is more likely to be growing and would not proof it is in decline at all. Your response was deleting it from the quote and pretend I just critizised your argument and just made claims in regards to the opposite.

    Don't pretend no one knows your endless history of sockpuppet accounts you constantly keep trashing non-Blizzard and glorifying Blizzard games with here and elsewhere. After more than half a decade and closing up to at least tenthousand of post just trashing or slandering the competition alone you ought to believe people would notice no matter the facade of new account names.

    I actually stated specifically it was what Jeremy Gaffney stated, you might want to go back and read what I said.  It was in the latest MMORPG Online panel.  I have about 5-6 sources that show the decline from the abysmal population in sPvP servers, to website traffic, to sites like xfire and Raptr, to sales figures.  You on the other hand really don't have any proof for growth?  Do you?  Seems like you backed of the "growth" statement now. 

    Oh yeah I have a dozen accounts here glorifying Blizzard games and trashing non-Blizzard games.  Sure buddy, I am a paid poster.  I am also President Obama.

    1st - What does sPvP population drop has to do with PvE/WvW population?

    The game is by far PvE focused.

    2nd - What does website traffic have to do with population drop?

    Before the game was released websites were everything interested players had. now they have the game.

    3rd - XFire also shows a 85% population drop for WoW. Still makes GW2 the second most played MMORPG. By the way if you dislike Xfire clock and fps counter in game you cant disable it in GW2 since it crashes the game.

    4th - Raptr shows Rift as the most played MMORPG. These tools represent such a limited amount of players that a simple offer can distort numbers like that.

    5th - Sales don't show a decline because players only need to buy the game once.

    6th - The population is most likely smaller than it was at launch (where GW2 was the biggest new mmorpg release in the west), but it seems more populated now that it seemed in October-Dec'12 and even Jan-March'13 (when there are Anet devs on the record confirming they had more players playing every week). Anyone really playing the game will notice it. 

    Now it can be due to more players are actively playing or because Anet became very good at directing players to the same areas or both.

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
     

    1st - What does sPvP population drop has to do with PvE/WvW population?

    The game is by far PvE focused.

    It doesn't but it is one of the only in-game things we can actually measure.  And during peak times there are about 300-500 players in sPvP across all servers.  If there was a way to measure PvE pop in game that would be great too, but we can't.  We could do it in games like WoW and SWTOR which functions like /who.

    WoW is slowly declining, and Xfire shows it.  It lost millions of subs this year alone.  But it had a good run, I would be shocked if it gets back up to the 9+ million mark again.

    Here is my point, everything we can actually measure from third party sources to in-game shows a decline.  People that speak of growth have no such proof.  Obviously we can't 100% prove anything unless the developers come out and say it.  But usually PR speak for any game tries to present their game in the best light, see Neverwinter's recent PR post where they said they had 2 million players.

  • SukiyakiSukiyaki GreenwichPosts: 1,398Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass

    I actually stated specifically it was what Jeremy Gaffney stated, you might want to go back and read what I said.  It was in the latest MMORPG Online panel.  I have about 5-6 sources that show the decline from the abysmal population in sPvP servers, to website traffic, to sites like xfire and Raptr, to sales figures.  You on the other hand really don't have any proof for growth?  Do you?  Seems like you backed of the "growth" statement now. 

    Oh yeah I have a dozen accounts here glorifying Blizzard games and trashing non-Blizzard games.  Sure buddy, I am a paid poster.  I am also President Obama.

    You specifically distorted Gaffneys words and put a personal spin on his words on top of it after Gaffneys numbers failed to "proof" GW2 was in decline. I never said you didn't spin his words and did not add even more fabrications on top of it.

    That was also addressed in the part you conveniently deleted from the quotes and simply ignored because your entire argument was not just debunked, but backfired to the opposite supporting GW2s potential growth with your own initial figures, before you had to put you personal assumption of player decline on top of it... in another desperate attempt to make your faux math proof that GW2 was declining.

    Xfire nor rapt could not indicate a player loss in recent time, only activity reduction from launch to early post launch date. You are a hypocrite whenever it came to those "third party sources". You keep feigning ignorance the convenient fact all of them lost user on the long run themself on top of whats going on with games, conveniently mislablel activity and acutal player and deliberately spun the figures. But Xfire nor raptr was ever accurate, even labeled xfire as grossly inaccurate, when it came to the massive decline (far beyond those you you now have to admit) of your favourite game WoW on xfire, raptr or whatever nameless source you keep pointing at. Xfire and now even Raptr shows GW2 is closing up to WoW in the recent months (or rather WoW closing down to a stable/growing GW2), yet you claimed and pretend the opposite was the case and GW2 droping much faster and wouldn't bother again about these "third party sources."

    Your misleading sPvP argument never flew before. Stop pretending it does.

    Sales didnt indicate a player loss at all. Even your failed attempt to interpret them backfired. Stop pretending they did.

     

    So much for those "facts" you care so much for.

  • SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member
    Originally posted by Sukiyaki
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass

    I actually stated specifically it was what Jeremy Gaffney stated, you might want to go back and read what I said.  It was in the latest MMORPG Online panel.  I have about 5-6 sources that show the decline from the abysmal population in sPvP servers, to website traffic, to sites like xfire and Raptr, to sales figures.  You on the other hand really don't have any proof for growth?  Do you?  Seems like you backed of the "growth" statement now. 

    Oh yeah I have a dozen accounts here glorifying Blizzard games and trashing non-Blizzard games.  Sure buddy, I am a paid poster.  I am also President Obama.

    You specifically distorted Gaffneys words and put a personal spin on his words on top of it after Gaffneys numbers failed to "proof" GW2 was in decline. I never said you didn't spin his words and did not add even more fabrications on top of it. That was also addressed in the part you deleted from the quotes and simply ignored because your entire argument was not just debunked but backfired to the opposite with you initial figures, before you had to put you personal assumption of player decline on top of it... in desperate attempt to proof that GW2 was declining.

    So much for those "facts" you care so much for.

    I deleted that quote because I was not going to read all of that and respond to all of it.  Nothing really backfired or was debunked.  He said good games churn out 5% to 10%, he also specfically uses WoW as one of the good games.  Average/Bad games probably churn out more than that as he himself states.  I didn't do all that, because I didn't think anyone would be defensive enough to nitpick all that.  Because if I did, my theory would work out.

    Again, you still backed away from the "growth" argument after I asked for proof.  I on the other hand have several sources which I have quoted that back a 60% to 80% decline.  It could just be the norm in the MMO industry but it is just how the numbers play out.

     

  • HalandirHalandir nnPosts: 758Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    ...

    I would love to see actual facts.  But I haven't seen anything.

    I would love for you to present a counter argument (outside of "screenshot or financial statement or it didnt happen")

    For all its worth: I am far from the "perfect GW2 fan". Left the game for months after the nov. 15th update, and yes I was REALLY annoyed.

    Fact: I returned recently (2-3 months back) and game (on my "medium" server) is just as lively as it was when I took a break some 6-7 months ago.

    Very, VERY different compared to AoC, WoW or even Aion... 

    If you feel an urge to pull the "screenshot or it didnt happen" card: PM me for a guild invite...

     

    We dont need casuals in our games!!! Errm... Well we DO need casuals to fund and populate our games - But the games should be all about "hardcore" because: We dont need casuals in our games!!!
    (repeat ad infinitum)

  • SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member
    Originally posted by Halandir
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    ...

    I would love to see actual facts.  But I haven't seen anything.

    I would love for you to present a counter argument (outside of "screenshot or financial statement or it didnt happen")

    For all its worth: I am far from the "perfect GW2 fan". Left the game for months after the nov. 15th update, and yes I was REALLY annoyed.

    Fact: I returned recently (2-3 months back) and game (on my "medium" server) is just as lively as it was when I took a break some 6-7 months ago.

    Very, VERY different compared to AoC, WoW or even Aion... 

    If you feel an urge to pull the "screenshot or it didnt happen" card: PM me for a guild invite...

     

    I have several times and am not going to do it again, but when I shows these figures they somehow don't count.  So as I said, we can't be sure unless we see actual stats from devs.

    Not the stupid "We have 2 million players" that Neverwinter recently released.  Something like "We have 200k active users in the last month" would be more impressive.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,818Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
     

    1st - What does sPvP population drop has to do with PvE/WvW population?

    The game is by far PvE focused.

    It doesn't but it is one of the only in-game things we can actually measure.  And during peak times there are about 300-500 players in sPvP across all servers.  If there was a way to measure PvE pop in game that would be great too, but we can't.  We could do it in games like WoW and SWTOR which functions like /who.

    WoW is slowly declining, and Xfire shows it.  It lost millions of subs this year alone.  But it had a good run, I would be shocked if it gets back up to the 9+ million mark again.

    Here is my point, everything we can actually measure from third party sources to in-game shows a decline.  People that speak of growth have no such proof.  Obviously we can't 100% prove anything unless the developers come out and say it.  But usually PR speak for any game tries to present their game in the best light, see Neverwinter's recent PR post where they said they had 2 million players.

    It is all of Xfire that is in decline.

    WoW in Jan'12 used to have around 15K players and some 100K hours.

    By Sep'12 when GW2 launched, it had like 7K players and 25K hours.

    Now WoW has 2800 players and 13K hours.

    GW2 has 6.5K hours and 1600 players.

    Even LoL has 16K players and 70K hours vs 30K players and 100K hours in Sep'12.

    If Xfire is representative than WoW lost some 80% of its population. It hasn't. We know that.

    Xfire is dying and it isn't a useful tool any longer. Sure, there aren't many others but that doesn't mean using wrong tools is acceptable.

    sPvP is a very niche segment of GW2, and so far it has failed to get any traction as an eSport. No doubts about that. But 150 peeps is basically a battle in WvW and you have a couple of those in any of the 4 maps or you have 50-100 peeps in any World Boss with a chest or in the Pavillion crown (where I'm always in overflow).

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
     

    1st - What does sPvP population drop has to do with PvE/WvW population?

    The game is by far PvE focused.

    It doesn't but it is one of the only in-game things we can actually measure.  And during peak times there are about 300-500 players in sPvP across all servers.  If there was a way to measure PvE pop in game that would be great too, but we can't.  We could do it in games like WoW and SWTOR which functions like /who.

    WoW is slowly declining, and Xfire shows it.  It lost millions of subs this year alone.  But it had a good run, I would be shocked if it gets back up to the 9+ million mark again.

    Here is my point, everything we can actually measure from third party sources to in-game shows a decline.  People that speak of growth have no such proof.  Obviously we can't 100% prove anything unless the developers come out and say it.  But usually PR speak for any game tries to present their game in the best light, see Neverwinter's recent PR post where they said they had 2 million players.

    It is all of Xfire that is in decline.

    WoW in Jan'12 used to have around 15K players and some 100K hours.

    By Sep'12 when GW2 launched, it had like 7K players and 25K hours.

    Now WoW has 2800 players and 13K hours.

    GW2 has 6.5K hours and 1600 players.

    Even LoL has 16K players and 70K hours vs 30K players and 100K hours in Sep'12.

    If Xfire is representative than WoW lost some 80% of its population. It hasn't.

    Xfire is dying and it isn't a useful tool any longer. Sure, there aren't many others but that doesn't mean using wrong tools is acceptable.

    sPvP is a very niche segment of GW2, and so far it has failed to get any traction as an eSport. No doubts about that. But 150 peeps is basically a battle in WvW and you have a couple of those in any of the 4 maps or you have 50-100 peeps in any World Boss with a chest or in the Pavillion crown (where I'm always in overflow).

    Yeah Raptr has taken over Xfire and has a significantly larger sample (I believe it is 20+ million users).  I only look at Xfire to see trends as they post their data by month/week, which Raptr doesn't.

  • HalandirHalandir nnPosts: 758Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    ...

    I have several times and am not going to do it again, but when I shows these figures they somehow don't count.  So as I said, we can't be sure unless we see actual stats from devs.

    Not the stupid "We have 2 million players" that Neverwinter recently released.  Something like "We have 200k active users in the last month" would be more impressive.

     

    Sorry... You are just lipflapping.

    200K active players in GW2 would be an understatement... Not by a factor 1:10, but an understatement still.

    But hey: Jump right in... Guest a few servers, join a guild or two and enjoy anecdotal evidence: Game is doing a hell of a lot better than other MMO-like games...

     

    We dont need casuals in our games!!! Errm... Well we DO need casuals to fund and populate our games - But the games should be all about "hardcore" because: We dont need casuals in our games!!!
    (repeat ad infinitum)

  • aesperusaesperus Hamshire, NVPosts: 5,128Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    Originally posted by Halandir
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    ...

    I would love to see actual facts.  But I haven't seen anything.

    I would love for you to present a counter argument (outside of "screenshot or financial statement or it didnt happen")

    For all its worth: I am far from the "perfect GW2 fan". Left the game for months after the nov. 15th update, and yes I was REALLY annoyed.

    Fact: I returned recently (2-3 months back) and game (on my "medium" server) is just as lively as it was when I took a break some 6-7 months ago.

    Very, VERY different compared to AoC, WoW or even Aion... 

    If you feel an urge to pull the "screenshot or it didnt happen" card: PM me for a guild invite...

    I have several times and am not going to do it again, but when I shows these figures they somehow don't count.  So as I said, we can't be sure unless we see actual stats from devs.

    Not the stupid "We have 2 million players" that Neverwinter recently released.  Something like "We have 200k active users in the last month" would be more impressive.

    You need to make sure the data you are providing actually says what you think it does.

    Xfire numbers aren't as representative as most people think.

    Financial reports reflect sales. In this case 'box sales', which anyone familiar w/ GW2 knows it doesn't really apply (most of GW2's revenue is NOT from the box. It's also a game where expansion content is freely provided, so they aren't padding their box sales with expansions.

    IF you can get accurate population numbers, directly from the company, those are usually reliable-ish. However, they are usually rough estimates if you're lucky. Most companies don't release those true numbers, because it doesn't benefit them in the slightest, and can even do a lot of harm if they aren't careful.

    - People can post server pops (not numbers; but full, very high, medium, etc.). This data has been dynamically collected, and there are many tools for GW2 that do everything from compare servers, to follow events, to follow group activity.

    - People can post the WvW ques that still pop up regularly for all maps. Or screenshots of the boss events, in which there are so many people on the screen, that many of them are being culled (pop in / out of visibility).

    - People can post screens of the sPvP servers, which while still a somewhat more niche part of the game, are still fairly active.

    However, for some of you that means nothing. You'd rather discount actual in-game evidence, in favor of arbitrary 3rd party data, of which people have no correlation to draw from. That's just bad science.

  • SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member
    Originally posted by Halandir
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    ...

    I have several times and am not going to do it again, but when I shows these figures they somehow don't count.  So as I said, we can't be sure unless we see actual stats from devs.

    Not the stupid "We have 2 million players" that Neverwinter recently released.  Something like "We have 200k active users in the last month" would be more impressive.

     

    Sorry... You are just lipflapping.

    200K active players in GW2 would be an understatement... Not by a factor 1:10, but an understatement still.

    But hey: Jump right in... Guest a few servers, join a guild or two and enjoy anecdotal evidence: Game is doing a hell of a lot better than other MMO-like games...

     

    I said Neverwinter, read it again.  

  • SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member
    Originally posted by aesperus
     

    You need to make sure the data you are providing actually says what you think it does.

    Xfire numbers aren't as representative as most people think.

    Financial reports reflect sales. In this case 'box sales', which anyone familiar w/ GW2 knows it doesn't really apply (most of GW2's revenue is NOT from the box. It's also a game where expansion content is freely provided, so they aren't padding their box sales with expansions.

    IF you can get accurate population numbers, directly from the company, those are usually reliable-ish. However, they are usually rough estimates if you're lucky. Most companies don't release those true numbers, because it doesn't benefit them in the slightest, and can even do a lot of harm if they aren't careful.

    - People can post server pops (not numbers; but full, very high, medium, etc.). This data has been dynamically collected, and there are many tools for GW2 that do everything from compare servers, to follow events, to follow group activity.

    - People can post the WvW ques that still pop up regularly for all maps. Or screenshots of the boss events, in which there are so many people on the screen, that many of them are being culled (pop in / out of visibility).

    - People can post screens of the sPvP servers, which while still a somewhat more niche part of the game, are still fairly active.

    However, for some of you that means nothing. You'd rather discount actual in-game evidence, in favor of arbitrary 3rd party data, of which people have no correlation to draw from. That's just bad science.

    I see nothing here that is "in-game evidence".  Where are the numbers?  Any concrete data?  You presenting screenshots as evidence and call things like Raptr "arbitrary"?  You know one thing we can actually measure in game?  It is the sPvP population.  You said it was "fairly active".  But go to the Mists and check it out yourself, during peak times there are about 300-500 people in there across all servers.  Is that "fairly active" to you?

  • wsmarwsmar Nashville, TNPosts: 122Member
    What quantity defines a full server? Was that quantity the same as it was when it launched? I'd like to know that before you tell me that this game is growing.
  • HalandirHalandir nnPosts: 758Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    Originally posted by Halandir
    ... You are just lipflapping.

    I said Neverwinter, read it again.  

    Sorry I missed that. All your posts seemed to revolve around GW2,

    No harm done - By all means keep talking about Neverwinter in relevant forums...

     

    We dont need casuals in our games!!! Errm... Well we DO need casuals to fund and populate our games - But the games should be all about "hardcore" because: We dont need casuals in our games!!!
    (repeat ad infinitum)

  • SoMuchMassSoMuchMass New York, NYPosts: 548Member
    Originally posted by wsmar
    What quantity defines a full server? Was that quantity the same as it was when it launched? I'd like to know that before you tell me that this game is growing.

    We will never know.  I am in Lion's Arch in Eredon's Terrace right now, and it is labeled "High".  There are about 15 people combined near the bank/trader broker and the area in between.  And only one thing has been said in chat for the last 10 minutes.

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