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NCsoft quarterly report is out... not looking good for gw2...

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  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,829Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    Originally posted by Meowhead
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass

    What facts have you provided exactly?  I just look at ANet sales on page 10 and I see a 20% drop from quarter over quarter, and 80% drop since launch.  I look at the number of people on GW2 sPvP servers and see 300 people across all servers during primetime.  I look at traffic data for GW2 Guru, Guildwars2.com and /r/guildwars2 and see a 70% to 80% drop since launch.  I look at Xfire data and see a 80% drop in players since launch.

    I get it, you are a fan of the game.  I had arguments with SWTOR fans similiar to this, so I can see where you are coming from.  And I don't blame you.

    Xfire?  80% drop from launch when they were =the most played MMORPG in the western markets= (Beating out WoW).  80% drop that still makes them the SECOND most played MMORPG?  (After WoW), a game that has seen a similarly massive drop since the release of MoP?

    You shouldn't bring XFire into it, '#2 MMORPG in the Western game market' is pretty poor evidence for 'dying game'.  They in fact, are beating out EVE by a fairly hefty margin of players and profit both, so far as any evidence you'll find goes.  Is EVE a failing game?

    In fact, other than WoW, what MMORPG is beating out GW2 in western markets for money making?  Or where you can prove it has more (active) players with facts?

    Go ahead.  I'll sit here and wait for you.

    XFire shows trends in data month over month.  You can take a look at data here in terms of the drop.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AimCXydAYDLYdHUwWGhfWXg2S3pVWFY5QjcxOWlLRUE#gid=0

    GW2 = 92,000 players in Sept '12

    GW2 = 7,000 players in July '13

    If you look at Raptr which has 20 times the sample of Xfire.  GW2 is the third most popular MMO in the West, after WoW and Rift.  I am guessing after this week it will be 4th after FFXIV:AAR.

    http://raptr.com/dashboard/games

    Wasn't a long wait, was it?  And who said anything about "dying"?  Declining? Sure.

    GW2 didn't have 92 000 player in Sept 12 - it had 92 000 hours and 15K players.

    And look at WoW in Jan'12 - 100K hours and now has 15K hours.

    Did WoW lost 85% of its population?

    XFire that awesome bit of software that adds a FPS counter and a clock to your game and that you can't disable it in GW2 because it crashes the game.

    Oh Raptr, that awesome software that says Rift is more played than WoW.

    Could it be because they had a 2 month long offer that if you played Rift for 14 hours you would get Rift+Storm legion with 1 month sub for free?

    And then a few more hours and items in game and a mount?

    The user base of these tools is so small that a offer like that can make Rift a bigger MMO than WoW.

    And where is Neverwinter? I read in these same forums that GW2 was such a failure that even Neverwinter and Defience were more played.

    Of course those 2 games are way below GW2 now after their release month.

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • SukiyakiSukiyaki GreenwichPosts: 1,398Member Uncommon

    If this where a certain other game the certain well known fanboys of said other game now crying "horrible news" and "no one expected that! disregard anyone who did" over here, would cry its a perfectly healthy population cycle and point us at the greatness of prospectively deferred revenues from previous years boxsales hiding the actual current revenues. No wait the do this all the time and just did it a week ago. Dishonest hypocrites as usual.

    And suddenly xfire is all accurate again, when it comes to misleadingly implied and even falsified decline of other games when just  over the past months same people trashed it for showing their favourite game in almost equal decline and horribly inaccurate when it showed GW2 is even closing up to their certain favourite game just weeks ago?

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,829Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Xiaoki

    Guild Wars 2 went from $32.5 million the previous quarter down to $25.8 million this quarter.


    Why are the GW2 fans being so hardcore defensive?


    It didnt make as much money, its a fact.

    Sure, and no one is saying that it didn't make as much money.

    But numbers need context or otherwise are meaningless.

    That is why we say 2 million players. Or 5 hours.

    What we are refuting is the conclusions of some people.

    Anet doesn't need this quarterly money to make Xpacs - they are financed by NCSoft that pay their salaries, just like they were during the years of GW2 development. Sure, Anet guys aren't buying a yacht, but buying yacht isn't the only measure for a successful business.

    The gem shop sales finance their live world team and make some profit on the side.

    Actually, it seems to be making so much money Anet and NCSoft aren't in a hurry to sell an expansion.

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,829Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Sukiyaki

    If this where a certain other game the certain well known fanboys of said other game now crying "doom" and "no one expected that! disregard anyone who did" over here, would cry its a perfectly healthy population cycle and point us at the greatness of prospectively deffered revenues from previous years boxsales hiding the actual current revenues. No wait the do this all the time and just did it a week ago. Dishonest hypocrites as usual.

    And suddenly xfire is all accurate again when it comes to misleadingly implied and falsified decline of other games when just months ago sample people trashed it for showing their favourite game in equal decline and horribly inaccurate when it showed GW2 is even closing up to their certain favourite game just weeks ago?

    And the difference is that in that other game revenue is directly related with players playing.

    Not so linear in GW2.

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • SukiyakiSukiyaki GreenwichPosts: 1,398Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by Sukiyaki

    If this where a certain other game the certain well known fanboys of said other game now crying "doom" and "no one expected that! disregard anyone who did" over here, would cry its a perfectly healthy population cycle and point us at the greatness of prospectively deffered revenues from previous years boxsales hiding the actual current revenues. No wait the do this all the time and just did it a week ago. Dishonest hypocrites as usual.

    And suddenly xfire is all accurate again when it comes to misleadingly implied and falsified decline of other games when just months ago sample people trashed it for showing their favourite game in equal decline and horribly inaccurate when it showed GW2 is even closing up to their certain favourite game just weeks ago?

    And the difference is that in that other game revenue is directly related with players playing.

    Not so linear in GW2.

    Well thats exactly the joke. They are blaming another game for facing similar drops, that have even less of an direct impact on the gamepopulation (as usually implied) compared to a subscription based game and deny any rational argument about them even when its the same arguments they are using at the same time on another subforum, another forum or with another account in defense of another game facing a financial decline either.

    It goes even further that a mere sales decline does not immediately  indicate a drop of population in case of GW2 as opposed to their gametitle. In fact there is a pretty big buffer how much it has to drop to even indicate a decline of population due to to lack of new player influx presenterd by box sales. But is suggested it would do so.

  • Jean-Luc_PicardJean-Luc_Picard La BarrePosts: 3,549Member Uncommon

    Newsflash: the revenue of WoW also dropped after each expansion. Guess why? Simple logic... once people have bought one box for their account, they won't buy 10 more in the next months just for the fun of it.

    The only advantage of such silly threads where armchair economists think they know better than what's written clearly in the report, which is "stable GW2", is that it keeps all the trolls in the same place.

    Playing now: WoW, Landmark, GW2, The Crew, SotA

    Top 3 MMORPGs played: UO, AC1 and WoW

    Honorable mentions: AO, LotRO, SW:TOR and GW2.

    ----------------

    "The ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent" - Qui-gon Jinn. After many years of reading Internet forums, there's no doubt that neither does the ability to write.
    So if you notice that I'm no longer answering your nonsense, stop trying... because you just joined my block list.

  • AeanderAeander Walker, LAPosts: 523Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    Originally posted by SpottyGekko

    The true test for GW2 will be the next 6-12 months.

    Since it launched, GW2 has had no significant competition in the form of new AAA MMORPG launches, so it pretty much has had the playing field to itself.

     

    There's been no significant game arrival that has pulled 100's of thousands of players away for 2 or 3 months at a time. But that is about to change...

    FFXIV:ARR, Wildstar, ESO, Archeage and EQ:Landmark will most likely all be launching in the next 6-12 months, which will inevitably pull significant player numbers away from GW2. This will impact CS sales the most, and that appears to be GW2's major source of revenue currently.

    Agreed 100%.  And I am curious to see how NCSoft treats GW2 after the launch of WildStar.  Even without competition it did drop in sales by a good amount.  Now look at games that you mentioned and the landscape gets a whole lot more competitive.  And to add to that, most of those games will be F2P or B2P.

    And you guys really think that the possibly players leaving will be the ones that spend money in the cash shop?

    Do you guys really think that every player drops money in the cash shop?

    And here's where SoMuchMass's "active player numbers are the measure of success in all business models" argument weakens. The players that quit are those who are the least likely to spend real money on a game's cash shop. Most cash shop purchases come from the dedicated fanbase (both casual and hardcore) that intend to stay with said game. While a minority of the players who bail out of a game may have been potential spenders, the largest concentration of spenders will remain in the game's dedicated crowd in almost any given game. 

     

    So no, active players do not measure success (with the sole exception of sub games). Revenue does. In this case, gem shop earnings are the largest indicator of the game's health (and we still don't have these numbers by themselves). 

  • stevebombsquadstevebombsquad Orlando, FLPosts: 843Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Piechunks

    What any intelligent GW2 player should be asking themselves (if they care), is if  this will imply a change in living story content, and/or the release of an expansion.

     

     

    It already has. Why do you think they have had a "change of direction?" There is a reason they have moved to a biweekly update cycle. It obviously has been shown to get more people to log in and most likely spend some money in the cash shop. They didn't make a decision like that just because...... 

    James T. Kirk: All she's got isn't good enough! What else ya got?

  • stevebombsquadstevebombsquad Orlando, FLPosts: 843Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Celcius
     

    I was right, because I know I am right and you are wrong. So there nee ner nee ner. (What you sound like right now) Funny part is, you are still wrong. Again, GW2 continues to push the bar for content updates, if you consider what they put out EVERY TWO WEEKS "micro content" then you have way higher expectations for MMO updates then reasonable. WoW puts out arguably some of the best content updates, yet it takes 2-3 months for the updates that would take GW2 two weeks and 6 months (raid patches) for the content that would take GW2 a couple of months, if that. I am comparing a much smaller game to a game with an absolutely GIGANTIC budget here as well. You act as though NC Soft gets most of what ArenaNet earns. Funny, I bet the 300 employees at ArenaNet would have something to say about that; considering they still have to get paid (which effects NC Soft's bottom line). 

    Here are the facts: NC Soft takes a cut of ArenaNet's profits. In return, they market the game. We don't know how much of a percentage NC Soft earns. 

    We know that ArenaNet has probably the biggest MMO company out there at the moment supporting one game. 

    We know that ArenaNet is hiring.

    We know that every month there are two content patches. One is rather large, the other usually being small. 

    We know no one else has a comparable pace for content. We know that even with the smaller size of some of GW2's updates that they compare to some of the bigger MMOs out there. 

    We know that NC Soft (Not ArenaNet) profits did not go up this quarter from the funds provided by ArenaNet from their piece of the pie. 

    We know that the price has only dropped by 10$ since launch. This usually indicates that sales are good enough to not lower the price. 

    You can draw your own conclusions, but it seems pretty obvious to me that they are doing just fine. 

    People always bring this up as a sign that everything is okay at a company which isn't necessarily true. Companies will often throw money at an issue and try to fix or improve a product. This is especially true when that product is the sole source of revenue for a company. I know this quite well because this is what happened in my last company. Unfortunately it didn't work out for us until it was too late. ArenaNet also has a high turnover rate and hires lots of contractors as evidenced by employee postings on glassdoor.com.

    James T. Kirk: All she's got isn't good enough! What else ya got?

  • IceAgeIceAge SomeWhere In ..Posts: 1,013Member Common
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    Originally posted by bcbully
    Originally posted by Celcius
    Originally posted by SoMuchMass
    Originally posted by Aeander
     

     

    "Full" servers mean nothing to you maybe. If you want to speculate you can say that pretty much all MMOs lie about server populations. This is you trying to base facts off of something that is pure speculation.

    Success is based on the amount of content that the game can continue to produce to keep their player base happy. This is something that has only picked up tremendously over time. If they are not making enough money to keep up with the updates then the game is not as successful. This is obviously not true as they are providing more content then any MMO has except maybe Rift in the first year. 

    ArenaNet is hiring. They have not laid off anyone and they continue to produce quality updates. The only fact here is that you want to throw your speculations around like they are facts when anyone who plays the game on any kind of regular basis knows how wrong you are.

    Anet is NCsofts lowest grossing subsidiary though. Down about 80% since launch and 20% last quarter. 

     

    I mean it's all relative, but to keep it in perspective GW2 is earning abut as much as AION.

    The amazing part of the report is the success of Lineage 1.  It is basically carrying NCSoft on its back.  That game itself had almost 50% of sales for NCSoft and saw almost a 30% growth from Q1 '13 to Q2 '13.  Just amazing.

    But you are right, for NCSoft, GW2 and Aion are on par.

    Kids does days. AION is released in almost every important country/territory in the world. They even say "thank you China" ( somehow ) for their continued support over Aion.

    Let's discuss after they will release it in China, Korea, Japan , etc.

    Reporter: What's behind Blizzard success, and how do you make your gamers happy?
    Blizzard Boss: Making gamers happy is not my concern, making money.. yes!

  • VolkonVolkon Sterling, VAPosts: 3,788Member
    Originally posted by stevebombsquad

    I don't understand the surprise at the drop in box sales. It is a B2P game and they will eventually saturate the market with their sales. This happens with every game to include P2P ones. Their cash shop sales are what matter and I would imagine this change in direction on the development of new content is meant to increase those. What will be interesting will be the next report to see if these changes have had an impact. Only time will tell if they will be able to sustain this style of development pace.

     

    I agree fully. Also, like in the thread about population, a slower pace of sales does not mean the game isn't growing.

    Oderint, dum metuant.
    image

  • IceAgeIceAge SomeWhere In ..Posts: 1,013Member Common

    What I find it a bit...funny, is that Nc Europe had and has almost indetically rise and fall numbers as ANet since GW2 released, where Nc Europe does not have 1 single game to support anymore , since L2 and Aion became F2P, which is over a year ago.

    I think is safe to say, that Nc Europe works somehow, as a company for GW2 in Europe.  So numbers may double.

    Am I right?

    Reporter: What's behind Blizzard success, and how do you make your gamers happy?
    Blizzard Boss: Making gamers happy is not my concern, making money.. yes!

  • LydonLydon Cape TownPosts: 2,913Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by caetftl
    The point i'm trying to make is simple... I am trying to give people real evidence to formulate their perceptions on. I am a firm believer in education and knowledge...I prefer people to discuss things with a proper understanding of them, instead of just making wild assumptions. A lot of gw2 players here try to misrepresent how well gw2 is doing. Some even believed it was capable of retaining 80+% of the playerbase. I myself just want to make sure as many people as possible can see real facts.

    I'm confused as to why these numbers are at all worrying? It should be quite obvious that as the game ages box sales are going to decline, especially with no expansion pack in sight. ArenaNet has always relied on the sale of expansion packs to provide long-term cash injections for the simple reason that they don't have monthly subscriptions to rely on. The difference between GW1 and GW2, however, is that the cash shop is far more extensive in the latter, thus they have an additional source of revenue between box releases. But at the end of the day the company makes its money through large bursts of sales as opposed to a sustained source of income over the long term.

    Furthermore, I find your downplaying of their operating profit quite amusing. At the end of the day they're a business and care most about their profit. On the one hand you're championing the numbers and telling people not to put their own spin on it, but on the other hand you're downplaying arguably the most important figure, operating profit, and using complete assumptions - no facts and figures - in order to do so. As a result one can't help but assume that you have an agenda.

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  • korent1991korent1991 CakovecPosts: 1,390Member
    Originally posted by caetftl
    Originally posted by Nadia
    Originally posted by caetftl
    I'll go by the official earnings reports over massively's article of opinions... but you are free to try and spin the numbers if you want.

    read page 4 header of the ncsoft report

     

    Revenues grew on the back of historical high L1 and stable GW2 OP also increased reflecting solid revenues and limited increase in expenses

     

     

    I prefer the actual numbers, which are down 20% from last quarter... Also operating profits while important, aren't nearly as telling as sales.... Operating profit could be increased for example, by the initial wave of release players quitting, so anet being able to layoff CSR staff because they are only supporting a fraction of the initial customers. That is an example of a way you can increase your operating profit, by lowering operating cost.

    It always intrigued me how some people have this urge to point out facts partially to suit their needs :D

    Also, considering GW2 is 1 time buy like most singleplayer games out there, this is huge news that they're still selling... Now imagine how they'll boost profit when they release in china or whole asia :P

    "Happiness is not a destination. It is a method of life."
    -------------------------------

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  • coretex666coretex666 PraguePosts: 1,928Member Uncommon

    It is just a quarterly report.

    Revenues tend to fluctuate throughout the year in most companies. I have never audited a PC game making company, so I do not really know what the most significant factors influencing development of revenues are.

    I suggest that you take the report with reserve and avoid making some premature conclusions about the game.

    I think that the decrease in revenues fits in the context considering that in prior Q, GW 2 was likely to still generate decent portion of its revenues from box sales. This revenue channel's significance will be decreasing, so that most of the sales will be represented by sales made in the Cash Shop.

    It will be more interesting to analyze financial statements at the end of 2014 as those will be the first to provide Y2Y comparison. Quarterly reports may be misleading for people without good knowledge of the industry.

    It would also make a little more sense to make a comparison of the same Q in previous year with the currently reported one which is not possible at the moment. I think the reported revenues related to GW 2 are in line with NCSoft's expectations.

    No matter how much people who do not like the game want the numbers to indicate its failure, they simply dont. Same holds for its fans. Stable operating profit does not necessarily mean that the game is doing great. Dont worry guys, give it a little more time and wait for numbers that actually tell something. Then the forum war can begin.

    Waiting for L2 EU Classic

  • SukiyakiSukiyaki GreenwichPosts: 1,398Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Lydon

    I'm confused as to why these numbers are at all worrying?

    They aren't.

    Thats exactly why this thread exist to promote a dishonest claim to the contrary and deliberately takes the "facts" out of their respective context to make it easier to annotate baseless assumption and irrational conclusion to some cherpicked bits of information.  Its a deliberatly ignorant attempt to suggest the facts are supporting their emotionally driven claims.

    Aside from the unknown factor of cashshop sales and even that is just indicative either, the sales never indicated leave alone have proven, how many people stayed or left, it only indicates how many people joined. At this point its not even possible unless for heavy uneducated assumption to even estimate if the game might have gained less new player than it lost due to natural decay, based on the sales report. Thats the objetive nature of sales of B2P games like GW2 with nonintrusive gameshops on top of it (as much as they want to deny that either). But only another crucial fact they don't care for.

    They dont care, no matter how they keep putting up the farce of objectivity reiterating how they only care for the facts and try to inform people. Their continued deliberate ignorance over any facts that easily disprove or debunk their "fact based" premade conclusions and assumptions driven only by ignorance and emotions, that GW2 is dying and doing horribly bad, swelling up their post histories, are proof enough for it.

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer ChairPosts: 5,596Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Meowhead
     

    I won't bother to argue 'decline in revenue'.  That's in black and white for all to see.

    Decline in population since launch?  Willing to believe that too, though it's hard to get hard numbers on that.

    All I'm saying is that 'decline' <> 'not looking good for gw2'.

    They're still at a comfortable stage.  The earnings call called it 'stable'.  That sort of decrease on the B2P model is pretty much within expectations.

    Decline in profit?   Yes. 

    'Not looking good' is projecting.

    Being #2 or #3, while simultaneously being the =second most anticipated= MMORPG in China (Another NCSoft game being the #1 anticipated), and making that much money per year?  (Hint:  It's a lot of money, even now).

    Still in a pretty comfortable position.

    (Also, all the explanations of how RIFT got higher Raptr numbers with lots of incentives... like a free mount (Free mount just for signing up for raptr!  Easy!), shows just how horribly skewed these games can get really easily.  That makes the RIFT numbers completely unreliable.  'Raptr isn't 100%' is an understatement, to say the least)

    After reading through this thread, This post right here is the one that makes the most sense to me. There are facts that have been presented, sure, facts are facts. But then, that's all that you can say. Far to much personal interpretation, speculation and agenda have been inserted into this thread piggy-backing on these facts into interpreting what those facts mean. Once you cut out the fact that is in the report, all the other things said, the "why" the "what it means" and anything else you say after the fact is just plain speculation.

    GW2 isn't going anywhere. If I fire up my client right now, I'll log in and see enough people running around LA, I'll see people in my guild online If I ask them, I am pretty sure I can get a dungeon or a fractal run going. We are the gamers. It's one thing to take note of how the game is doing financially, but our concern is the quality of the game's experience. It's enough for me to know that a game will still be around for at least another year. And GW2 will be.

     

     

  • bcbullybcbully Westland, MIPosts: 8,281Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by GeezerGamer
     

    I won't bother to argue 'decline in revenue'.  That's in black and white for all to see.

    Decline in population since launch?  Willing to believe that too, though it's hard to get hard numbers on that.

    All I'm saying is that 'decline' <> 'not looking good for gw2'.

    They're still at a comfortable stage.  The earnings call called it 'stable'.  That sort of decrease on the B2P model is pretty much within expectations.

    Decline in profit?   Yes. 

    'Not looking good' is projecting.

    Being #2 or #3, while simultaneously being the =second most anticipated= MMORPG in China (Another NCSoft game being the #1 anticipated), and making that much money per year?  (Hint:  It's a lot of money, even now).

    Still in a pretty comfortable position.

    (Also, all the explanations of how RIFT got higher Raptr numbers with lots of incentives... like a free mount (Free mount just for signing up for raptr!  Easy!), shows just how horribly skewed these games can get really easily.  That makes the RIFT numbers completely unreliable.  'Raptr isn't 100%' is an understatement, to say the least)

     

    Anyone have a link for that? I

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by bcbully
    Originally posted by Meowhead

    Being #2 or #3, while simultaneously being the =second most anticipated= MMORPG in China

    Anyone have a link for that?

    i have no clue

    but another beta for GW2 China is in Sept

    http://www.mmoculture.com/2013/07/guild-wars-2-2nd-test-phase-for-china-begins-in-september/

  • VolkonVolkon Sterling, VAPosts: 3,788Member
    I have to admit... I love that trailer.

    Oderint, dum metuant.
    image

  • AmanaAmana New York, NYPosts: 2,567Moderator Uncommon
    Just to note this was locked due to it spiraling into arguments and attempts at one-upmanship. The title is also potentially baiting.

    To give feedback on moderation, contact community@mmorpg.com

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