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XFire - As MMO population estimation tool

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Comments

  • XthosXthos Columbus, OHPosts: 2,628Member
    At most I think it can suggest a plus or minus in population, but not numbers.
  • MMOGamer71MMOGamer71 Pittsburgh, PAPosts: 1,930Member Uncommon
    I have been playing MMO's since Dark Age of Camelot and I know of NOONE that uses Xfire.
  • Ender4Ender4 milwaukee, WIPosts: 2,253Member

    xfire users is a tainted sample so no you really can't use them for anything. It would be like polling rich white guys who they are going to vote for and saying that you had a valid poll for the entire population. Some games don't play nice with it so people turn it off when they play those ones, some games appeal to younger players and very few younger players use xfire etc.

    These numbers are utterly meaningless.

  • PhryPhry HampshirePosts: 6,296Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by MMOGamer71
    I have been playing MMO's since Dark Age of Camelot and I know of NOONE that uses Xfire.

    apps like xfire and raptr etc, are very limited in how they work, so they never really gained any popularity.  They don't really add anything to a game, its not like they are useful like programs such as mumble, ventrilo or Teamspeak, now if those apps provided a graph of game useage then that would be different as the userbase is far more widespread, but even then there are many that don't use any form of voice comms, as hard to believe as that may be.

      Xfire etc, are just apps that provide interesting talking points, but they don't really provide any kind of valid data even on gaming trends, the sample size is far too small and far too narrowly specialised to be in any sense meaningful.image

  • maxima29maxima29 iowa, IAPosts: 203Member
    Xfire is only used when fanbois find it useful to their cause or haters find it useful to their cause. Its not good for anything but to track your playing time that's all.
  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Phry
    Originally posted by MMOGamer71 I have been playing MMO's since Dark Age of Camelot and I know of NOONE that uses Xfire.
    apps like xfire and raptr etc, are very limited in how they work, so they never really gained any popularity.  They don't really add anything to a game, its not like they are useful like programs such as mumble, ventrilo or Teamspeak, now if those apps provided a graph of game useage then that would be different as the userbase is far more widespread, but even then there are many that don't use any form of voice comms, as hard to believe as that may be.

      Xfire etc, are just apps that provide interesting talking points, but they don't really provide any kind of valid data even on gaming trends, the sample size is far too small and far too narrowly specialised to be in any sense meaningful.




    Not to mention the point of XFire and Raptr isn't tracking populations for the players to talk about. They are meant to be social networking websites for gamers, and the companies get to collect the information that is useful to the companies, none of which they tell the public and all of which they sell to developers.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • UmbroodUmbrood gbgPosts: 1,847Member Uncommon

    Even if xfire was 100% accurate, would it not be hard to determine numbers still as we do not know the total number of MMO players?

    We can see how many percent of their users play what game, but we would need at least one more valid data point, other then EVE, that we knew for sure to be correct.

    If mmorpg.com had a built in "played" function, that were actually tied into all MMO's I bet we could get pretty damn close to the truth.

    Still a bit skewed sample, but big enough and diverse enough that it would be fairly close.

    Valve and Steam could probably produce estimates that were within a few percent of reality, not only for the games on their service.

    It is not that xfire is to small a sample, but it is far from random and that makes it hard to extrapolate.

    Asking 20000 completely random, ( yes, even grandma aged 80, in fact, you must include her ), americans what mmo's they play would give pretty precise numbers, because you know how many americans there are.

    Would be valid for the US, and for a month or two tops.

    20k would be, for almost any other survey, considered a huge sample, but considering how small the % of those are actual mmo players it might even be a bit small, but you get the idea.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Originally posted by Jerek_

    I wonder if you honestly even believe what you type, or if you live in a made up world of facts.
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  • knightauditknightaudit Victoria, BCPosts: 255Member Uncommon

    X fire is good ... BUT .. as a tool to measure populations of a game ... NOT GOOD...

    Statistical numbering requires an even distribution. If say 90% of X fire Users play Neverwinter the number is high, but if say 15% also play WOW .. it looks small. If you have 1000 players all using x fire .. the beakdown would be

    900 Neverwinter

    150 WOW

    This would be like doing a TV rating system only based on Sony TV owners. Your Samling is incorrect to the number of players that are not using X fire.

    Taking the same numbers again ... but this time 5000 people are on each server (I am using random numbers to illistrate a point)

    5000 - 900 = 4100 not invluded in the statistic (x fire = 18% of the population)

    5000 - 150 = 4850 not included in the statistic (x fire = 3% of the population)

    Now for X fire to be what you say it should be ... everyone has to use it ... or at least 95% of all players.

     

    Statisticaly ... not happening ...

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member

    If anyone is wondering who's fault it is that XFire showed up here at MMORPG.com, it's this thread, and this guy.  I am reasonably sure this is the first X-Fire thread to show up on the forums.

     

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Common
    i wish this site still had my posts from 2004 image
  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member
    Originally posted by Nadia
    i wish this site still had my posts from 2004 image

     

    They are there, they just aren't linked to your profile.  If you look at that guy's profile, it says he has no posts, but his post is there in the forums.  You just have to go through the forums, page by page to find them.

     

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • kitaradkitarad RomePosts: 1,745Member Uncommon
    LoL trainwreck what an appropriate name. So we use raptr instead of xfire now is it on these boards.

    image

  • threefeetthreefeet FunafutiPosts: 156Member
    most people who play have never even heard of xfire. i jut happened to run into it a cpl yrs ago looking for something else, and have never used it. so there arent near enough people using it to think you can get a good/reliable idea on anything about any grps of people playing any game. none. zero. any info you gleen is worthless and represents nothing but the few who actually use that add on.
  • korent1991korent1991 CakovecPosts: 1,390Member
    can you PLEASE stop necroing this post?

    "Happiness is not a destination. It is a method of life."
    -------------------------------

    image
  • PurutzilPurutzil East Stroudsburg, PAPosts: 2,924Member Uncommon

    Its simple: Any tool that has only a small audience that doesn't consist of the general populace in terms of having an equal number of members of all different preferences likes/dislikes is a completely flawed and unreliable tool. XFire isn't some popular thing, its actual population is low and I'm more then certain its population doesn't evenly label out a good majority of the population of players.

     

    With that logic, you are saying that if I were to take a poll of say Fox News Viewers of their preferences of the Democratic Party Vs Republican Party, despite being a Republican propaganda machine, that the poll results will show a result that represents the general public, despite the fact its viewers are often republican favored, and as I believe last polled, consists primarily of the 68+ demographic. Its not going to be accurate at all.

     

    Don't ressurect a thread that has 0 merit behind it and for those who use any relative though, is quite obviously a false statement that no one can remotely debate to be true.

  • DarLorkarDarLorkar Texarkana, TXPosts: 704Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Purutzil

    Its simple: Any tool that has only a small audience that doesn't consist of the general populace in terms of having an equal number of members of all different preferences likes/dislikes is a completely flawed and unreliable tool. XFire isn't some popular thing, its actual population is low and I'm more then certain its population doesn't evenly label out a good majority of the population of players.

     

    With that logic, you are saying that if I were to take a poll of say Fox News Viewers of their preferences of the Democratic Party Vs Republican Party, despite being a Republican propaganda machine, that the poll results will show a result that represents the general public, despite the fact its viewers are often republican favored, and as I believe last polled, consists primarily of the 68+ demographic. Its not going to be accurate at all.

     

    Don't ressurect a thread that has 0 merit behind it and for those who use any relative though, is quite obviously a false statement that no one can remotely debate to be true.

    Accuse someone of spouting garbage by spouting garbage!!! 

    I am so impressed by the logic.

  • lugallugal Escondido, CAPosts: 639Member Uncommon
    Funny seeing people who know nothing of statistics try dismiss xfire data.

    Roses are red
    Violets are blue
    The reviewer has a mishapen head
    Which means his opinion is skewed
    ...Aldous.MF'n.Huxley

  • sumdumguy1sumdumguy1 avondale, AZPosts: 962Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by lugal
    Funny seeing people who know nothing of statistics try dismiss xfire data.

    Well out of curiosity are you saying its legitimate?

  • bcbullybcbully Westland, MIPosts: 8,281Member Uncommon
    The number of Xfire users has dipped really low. In fact it's not even a game trend site anymore. Statistically it could still be viable, but idk
  • boxsndboxsnd Kraxton, ARPosts: 438Member Uncommon
    XFire was accurate 1-2 years ago. These days there are better ways to measure popularity: twitch, reddit, raptr etc.

    DAoC - Excalibur & Camlann

  • Acidon.NumenAcidon.Numen Salem, ORPosts: 55Member
    Let this poor thing die already!  *sob*

    Please Note: I'm done arguing with unreasonable people with an agenda and/or those that fail to see logic.

    Argue if you must, discount my post with anti-logic and/or Hyperbole. I won't be responding any longer.

  • NightHaveNNightHaveN CarolinaPosts: 828Member Uncommon
    There is no valid source of info, because there isnt one included in Windows or Mac OS.

    Also Xfire is not the only one social gaming tool. I use Raptr ATI edition.

    Also many gamers dont have any of thesr tools at all and probably will use the performance or stability excuse.
  • p4ttythep3rf3ctp4ttythep3rf3ct Austin, TXPosts: 120Member
    Why would the 'XFire Factor' be a mathmatical constant?  I dig the logic, but the formula just doesn't hold up to any scrutiny.

    That's just, like, my opinion, man.

  • Starbuck1771Starbuck1771 Topeka, KSPosts: 303Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Yamota

    The purpose of this thread is to discuss XFire numbers and from those try to extrapolate MMO playerbase numbers from. The mods of this site said they would support such a thread and sticky it so here is hoping they will.

    So lets start by qouting what is said on the site: http://www.mmodata.net/ about X-Fire:

    "I just got the Q4 quarterly report from EA, and they report 1,3m subs, so I will add this. My latest estimate of 1,41m subs was pretty generous, however I always try to be conservative in my estimates, whether they are downward or upward. 

    What it does show me is that the Xfire numbers are a good indication to base estimates off, purely based on Xfire I would have estimated 1,2m."

    So with that in mind, let us start with some theory-crafting. This is the method I use to get estimated player base numbers. I take a game with a known playerbase and from those games calculate what I would call the X-Fire factor. As an example I will use Eve estimated playerbase of 360k subs (only counting the subs in the West as I believe X-Fire is not used much in the East).

    Then I divide this sub. number with the X-Fire played per day which for Eve is currently at 690. 

    360k/690 = 522 (rounded)

    So 522 is the X-Fire factor which I will use to calculate the playerbase of other games. It would be better if I had another game to calculate the same for but currently I dont know any known sub. numbers of any other game. But this is just an example.

    So lets use this number to estimate another MMOs playerbase, such as SW:TOR which has a players per day number of 1.471. Multiply this with the X-Fire factor to get an estimated playerbase of SW:TOR:

    1.471*522 = 768k (rounded)

    Same method for GW 2 gives a playerbase of 2 million.

    Reasonable? I think so. Keep in mind that the released sub. numbers for SW:TOR was way back in Q1 2012. And GW 2 has sales of 2 million a month or so after release.

    Here is the problem with that. Xfire can only track those who use their services. I have not used xfire in years. I use raptr now. The only way you know the true population is if the company releases that info. Otherwise  any calculation you have will be incorrect. Websites have been trying to do this for years but are always wrong because they do not have all the factors.

    image
  • DauzqulDauzqul Detroit, MIPosts: 1,408Member Uncommon
    Xfire? lol.  What's your ICQ #?
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