He had an interesting point about the number of backers that you could expect for a niche game at this stage of development:
My gut sense is that 5 to 10 percent of your audience is going to back you early, and I think that number is variable based on the quality. When you do something really good, it's a lower percentage; if you do something that isn't so good maybe it's 20 percent or 30 percent.
Not sure how correct that numbers are, or how well they apply to CU, but anecdotally, there are quite a number of people saying they don't want anything to do with kickstarter or with a game at this early stage, so imo they can be quite accurate. Basically, there are many people that won't give money based on promises, potential, and hope alone (including me. As an aside, there's not much that anyone could do to convince us otherwise, we just have a different risk apetite/financial situation/philosophical outlook).
So, if target audience is only 50k stable players, and maybe 100k-200k boxes sold in all, I think 10k backers is a good estimate of the total backers it is going to have. At the current rate, maybe it will go up to about 11k, maybe even 12k with a good surge, but I don't think it go much higher. What this says to me is that the current average pledge amount is probably still not high enough ($2m / 11k = $182).
So, if target audience is only 50k stable players, and maybe 100k-200k boxes sold in all, I think 10k backers is a good estimate of the total backers it is going to have. At the current rate, maybe it will go up to about 11k, maybe even 12k with a good surge, but I don't think it go much higher. What this says to me is that the current average pledge amount is probably still not high enough ($2m / 11k = $182).
What amuses me in hindsight is before the Kickstarter opened, I was thinking in terms of it would need 25,000 people to give $80 each to fund which seemed vanishingly unlikely. Well that was very wrong. I never imagined there would be so many people willing to give multiple thousands of dollars to pre-order a video game. I'm glad there were those people though because without them this wouldn't have had a prayer. As it is, it'll be close but doable.
I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg
Originally posted by kadepsyson I'd hate to see fans be disappointed in a couple years but luckily there's half a million dollars looking to prevent theat
Three days to go... do you think they will get enough last minute pledges to fund this? I know a lot of people were looking forward to it. It's not my thing but I'm sad to see it not get funded. Hopefully they have a backup plan.
Even if it's not funded, I don't think it should be scrapped entirely.
Have they said what they will do if the the Kickstarter fails?
Three days to go... do you think they will get enough last minute pledges to fund this? I know a lot of people were looking forward to it. It's not my thing but I'm sad to see it not get funded. Hopefully they have a backup plan.
Even if it's not funded, I don't think it should be scrapped entirely.
Have they said what they will do if the the Kickstarter fails?
he said it depends how close it gets.. if it hits like 1.9 million he would probably do another KS at a lower amount.. but nothings for sure
I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg
Three days to go... do you think they will get enough last minute pledges to fund this? I know a lot of people were looking forward to it. It's not my thing but I'm sad to see it not get funded. Hopefully they have a backup plan.
Even if it's not funded, I don't think it should be scrapped entirely.
Have they said what they will do if the the Kickstarter fails?
They have about 84 hours to raise $430,000. Seems extremely unlikely at this point unless they have an absolutely amazing next few days. I don't see how anyone could justify continuing the project from a business perspective if the Kickstarter fails.
In the last 16 hours or so, another 187 backers were registered.
And the pledged total grew by $51,644.
That's $276 per new backer... which seems surprisingly high. Are they all buying "Lifetime Subs" @ $250 ?
But I'd imagine that a fair portion of that total increase is from existing backers increasing their pledges. A number of people have posted that they've increased their pledges lately to get to the $250 "Lifetime Sub" level.
The problem with this situation is that if 75% of the most dedicated fans all end-up buying lifetime subs, then the game will make zero sub income from these players once it launches. So the group that are almost guaranteed to play the game the most and the longest (and who will also have the highest expectations) will contribute nothing to the ongoing income of the game post-launch. That is not a very healthy situation, because there will be too many Lords and not enough peasants....
In the last 16 hours or so, another 187 backers were registered.
And the pledged total grew by $51,644.
That's $276 per new backer... which seems surprisingly high. Are they all buying "Lifetime Subs" @ $250 ?
But I'd imagine that a fair portion of that total increase is from existing backers increasing their pledges. A number of people have posted that they've increased their pledges lately to get to the $250 "Lifetime Sub" level.
The problem with this situation is that if 75% of the most dedicated fans all end-up buying lifetime subs, then the game will make zero sub income from these players once it launches. So the group that are almost guaranteed to play the game the most and the longest (and who will also have the highest expectations) will contribute nothing to the ongoing income of the game post-launch. That is not a very healthy situation, because there will be too many Lords and not enough peasants....
Either way they still get $250, $50 box plus 13-14 months worth of sub fee's sure if the pledger players over 14 months then it's a problem but nothing to worry about right now.
It will get funded, wont get funded by real pledgers alone but you can be sure 300,000 will come from somewhere......
(hope this post dont get be temp banned like my other CU posts).
Three days to go... do you think they will get enough last minute pledges to fund this? I know a lot of people were looking forward to it. It's not my thing but I'm sad to see it not get funded. Hopefully they have a backup plan.
Even if it's not funded, I don't think it should be scrapped entirely.
Have they said what they will do if the the Kickstarter fails?
2 more days like the past 2 would get it over $1.7 million. Then the final 2 days (it ends Thursday just before noon) will be huge like other game Kickstarters. Don't be surprised if Mark opens a mysterious new $10,000 tier the final day which sells just enough to make up any gap too. I didn't think it was going to make it even 3 days ago, but now I feel pretty confident it will.
The problem with this situation is that if 75% of the most dedicated fans all end-up buying lifetime subs, then the game will make zero sub income from these players once it launches. So the group that are almost guaranteed to play the game the most and the longest (and who will also have the highest expectations) will contribute nothing to the ongoing income of the game post-launch. That is not a very healthy situation, because there will be too many Lords and not enough peasants....
By my very quick and rough count, it's something like 1,300 people who have pledged to lifetime sub tiers. Meanwhile there will be tens of thousands of people at launch who didn't pledge at all who will buy the game and sub. If it's a good game, it will more than make up the revenue from lifetime subbers from these people who didn't pledge at all. If it isn't good, then it will fail anyway so it won't matter. So there is nothing really to worry about with the lifetime subs. What's important right now is the $250+ they have donated to get the game funded.
Backers: 10027 Average Daily Pledges: $57,215 Average Pledge Per Backer: $160
This should be ilegal... 160$ per backer is an insane amount in a kickstarter campain. Anyway only 10k backers this is a clearly indication that this project is destined to fail, as MJ said they did the kickstarter to see if there where enought people interested, well you got 10k ... and your lower pledge tiers are empty... so they should rethink how that went.
Also like some people said i will not be surprised if misteriously more 5k -10k tiers open up in the next day, just for closing the gap to be funded and grab the money.
The problem with this situation is that if 75% of the most dedicated fans all end-up buying lifetime subs, then the game will make zero sub income from these players once it launches. So the group that are almost guaranteed to play the game the most and the longest (and who will also have the highest expectations) will contribute nothing to the ongoing income of the game post-launch. That is not a very healthy situation, because there will be too many Lords and not enough peasants....
By my very quick and rough count, it's something like 1,300 people who have pledged to lifetime sub tiers. Meanwhile there will be tens of thousands of people at launch who didn't pledge at all who will buy the game and sub. If it's a good game, it will more than make up the revenue from lifetime subbers from these people who didn't pledge at all. If it isn't good, then it will fail anyway so it won't matter. So there is nothing really to worry about with the lifetime subs. What's important right now is the $250+ they have donated to get the game funded.
So.. how do you "know" that "tens of thousands" will buy the game, assuming it will get made?
I must admit I have never read as many specualtions and assumptions getting made into self-proclaimed "fachts" as on this board.
Humourosity at all the hateful people in this thread. Don't you know your negative focus does more harm to you than the object of your attention? Silly geese.
Anyrate, I am one hundred percent confident this will fund. I'll bet one dollar.
Humourosity at all the hateful people in this thread. Don't you know your negative focus does more harm to you than the object of your attention? Silly geese.
Anyrate, I am one hundred percent confident this will fund. I'll bet one dollar.
Silly goose, don't you know MMORPG.com is only for negativity and favorable comments is blasphemous?
Any rate, if it does fund it will be a very close call. And if it does it will be intresting how the game turns out. Ideals are intriguing but I need more than just ideals, talk, and imo pointless tech demos to sell me on the product.
Backers: 10027 Average Daily Pledges: $57,215 Average Pledge Per Backer: $160
This should be ilegal... 160$ per backer is an insane amount in a kickstarter campain. Anyway only 10k backers this is a clearly indication that this project is destined to fail, as MJ said they did the kickstarter to see if there where enought people interested, well you got 10k ... and your lower pledge tiers are empty... so they should rethink how that went.
Also like some people said i will not be surprised if misteriously more 5k -10k tiers open up in the next day, just for closing the gap to be funded and grab the money.
That average is misleading, I think.
If I'm understanding the tier breakdowns correctly, then around 220 backers have provided 25% ($400K) of the money so far. Which means around 10K backers have provided the other $1.2M, which is a more modest $120 each.
If another 5-10K new backers arrive in the next 3 days to pledge the outstanding $400K, then all will be well. But if another 200 backers provide the outstanding $400K, then things look a lot less healthy in the long term.
The 220 "whales" have kicked-in $1,800 each on average. CU seems to have quite a few wealthy supporters ?
EDIT: WoW ! In just the last hour, 3 more backers have grabbed $10,000 pledges ! Hurry, there's only ONE still available !
So.. how do you "know" that "tens of thousands" will buy the game, assuming it will get made?
I must admit I have never read as many specualtions and assumptions getting made into self-proclaimed "fachts" as on this board.
The same way I know there will be tens of thousands of people who will buy TESO, Wildstar, ArchAge, World of Darkness, and any other major MMO that is released. That's what always happens.
Backers: 10027 Average Daily Pledges: $57,215 Average Pledge Per Backer: $160
This should be ilegal... 160$ per backer is an insane amount in a kickstarter campain. Anyway only 10k backers this is a clearly indication that this project is destined to fail, as MJ said they did the kickstarter to see if there where enought people interested, well you got 10k ... and your lower pledge tiers are empty... so they should rethink how that went.
Also like some people said i will not be surprised if misteriously more 5k -10k tiers open up in the next day, just for closing the gap to be funded and grab the money.
People spending their own money should be illegal? Well ok then, comrade. If Mark doesn't like the number of backers, he does have the option of cancelling the Kickstarter before the deadline. It's not going to happen, however. Or at least not if he ever wants to be taken seriously as an MMO developer in the future.
Very interesting take on things, i like it. Especially the part about AAA mmos becoming more like phone apps lol.
I mean last week i got a free 10 day trial for WoW, which i hadn't played since ... well WotLK pretty much. I was shocked senseless, i literally didn't recognize the game. Hell to think i was complaining in WotLK that the good old vanilla days where best ... we'll who had thought rock bottom was still THAT far away. I just don't get how you can change a game that much without pissing off your player base ... then again maybe the people playing WoW through BC till WotLK are long gone anyway.
That got me thinking, about the difference of a developer having a clear vision and hoping to find a way to sell it to a customer base, and a developer wanting to sell to a customer base first, and changing the product every which way to appeal to whatever is currently the biggest demographic.
Thanks! It all comes down to a simple thing. AAA make all of their decisions based on what gets them more money, smaller MMO companies make decisions based on what is best for the Game and the Players.
Really ?
That must be why there are so few small developers around these days. All the good ones from years ago sold their souls to EA & Vivendi for large amounts of CASH and stock options. Every single one of them ended-up preferring the money over anything else... so much for "the Game and the Players".
Originally posted by Tierless Thanks! It all comes down to a simple thing. AAA make all of their decisions based on what gets them more money, smaller MMO companies make decisions based on what is best for the Game and the Players.
I think it would be nice if that were true, but a business is all about the bottom line. Intentions may be good, but putting bread on the table will always be of utmost importance to any business. That's the very nature of a business.
So.. how do you "know" that "tens of thousands" will buy the game, assuming it will get made?
I must admit I have never read as many specualtions and assumptions getting made into self-proclaimed "fachts" as on this board.
The same way I know there will be tens of thousands of people who will buy TESO, Wildstar, ArchAge, World of Darkness, and any other major MMO that is released. That's what always happens.
But all those are big budget mmos. Whether they will be polished at release remains to be seen, but guaranteed those will take time to bring to market and will not be rushed!
I would give you a guest pass to SWOTR, but then I wouldn't be able to find a way to live with myself afterwards....
Has everyone forgot about marketing? If this game is funded they will have a marketing campaign close to the release of the game to bring in player other then the backers.
Thanks! It all comes down to a simple thing. AAA make all of their decisions based on what gets them more money, smaller MMO companies make decisions based on what is best for the Game and the Players.
Really ?
That must be why there are so few small developers around these days. All the good ones from years ago sold their souls to EA & Vivendi for large amounts of CASH and stock options. Every single one of them ended-up preferring the money over anything else... so much for "the Game and the Players".
Edit for clarity: CCP seems to be doing just fine putting what their players want before cash grabbing.
"Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me truth."
Comments
I just read this interesting article, from Star Citizen's founder: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-04-22-chris-roberts-how-incredible-community-transforms-development
He had an interesting point about the number of backers that you could expect for a niche game at this stage of development:
Not sure how correct that numbers are, or how well they apply to CU, but anecdotally, there are quite a number of people saying they don't want anything to do with kickstarter or with a game at this early stage, so imo they can be quite accurate. Basically, there are many people that won't give money based on promises, potential, and hope alone (including me. As an aside, there's not much that anyone could do to convince us otherwise, we just have a different risk apetite/financial situation/philosophical outlook).
So, if target audience is only 50k stable players, and maybe 100k-200k boxes sold in all, I think 10k backers is a good estimate of the total backers it is going to have. At the current rate, maybe it will go up to about 11k, maybe even 12k with a good surge, but I don't think it go much higher. What this says to me is that the current average pledge amount is probably still not high enough ($2m / 11k = $182).
What amuses me in hindsight is before the Kickstarter opened, I was thinking in terms of it would need 25,000 people to give $80 each to fund which seemed vanishingly unlikely. Well that was very wrong. I never imagined there would be so many people willing to give multiple thousands of dollars to pre-order a video game. I'm glad there were those people though because without them this wouldn't have had a prayer. As it is, it'll be close but doable.
DAOC Live (inactive): R11 Cleric R11 Druid R11 Minstrel R9 Eldritch R6 Sorc R6 Scout R6 Healer
http://www.livestream.com/cselivestream/video?clipId=pla_b1f55bc5-97dc-4a60-8d95-dfac197a9913
questions start at 20 min 30 seconds about
I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg
edit: being nice
Three days to go... do you think they will get enough last minute pledges to fund this? I know a lot of people were looking forward to it. It's not my thing but I'm sad to see it not get funded. Hopefully they have a backup plan.
Even if it's not funded, I don't think it should be scrapped entirely.
Have they said what they will do if the the Kickstarter fails?
he said it depends how close it gets.. if it hits like 1.9 million he would probably do another KS at a lower amount.. but nothings for sure
I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg
They have about 84 hours to raise $430,000. Seems extremely unlikely at this point unless they have an absolutely amazing next few days. I don't see how anyone could justify continuing the project from a business perspective if the Kickstarter fails.
In the last 16 hours or so, another 187 backers were registered.
And the pledged total grew by $51,644.
That's $276 per new backer... which seems surprisingly high. Are they all buying "Lifetime Subs" @ $250 ?
But I'd imagine that a fair portion of that total increase is from existing backers increasing their pledges. A number of people have posted that they've increased their pledges lately to get to the $250 "Lifetime Sub" level.
The problem with this situation is that if 75% of the most dedicated fans all end-up buying lifetime subs, then the game will make zero sub income from these players once it launches. So the group that are almost guaranteed to play the game the most and the longest (and who will also have the highest expectations) will contribute nothing to the ongoing income of the game post-launch. That is not a very healthy situation, because there will be too many Lords and not enough peasants....
Either way they still get $250, $50 box plus 13-14 months worth of sub fee's sure if the pledger players over 14 months then it's a problem but nothing to worry about right now.
It will get funded, wont get funded by real pledgers alone but you can be sure 300,000 will come from somewhere......
(hope this post dont get be temp banned like my other CU posts).
I am still suprised that some actually backed $10,000!
It is going to be close what ever the outcome.
2 more days like the past 2 would get it over $1.7 million. Then the final 2 days (it ends Thursday just before noon) will be huge like other game Kickstarters. Don't be surprised if Mark opens a mysterious new $10,000 tier the final day which sells just enough to make up any gap too. I didn't think it was going to make it even 3 days ago, but now I feel pretty confident it will.
DAOC Live (inactive): R11 Cleric R11 Druid R11 Minstrel R9 Eldritch R6 Sorc R6 Scout R6 Healer
By my very quick and rough count, it's something like 1,300 people who have pledged to lifetime sub tiers. Meanwhile there will be tens of thousands of people at launch who didn't pledge at all who will buy the game and sub. If it's a good game, it will more than make up the revenue from lifetime subbers from these people who didn't pledge at all. If it isn't good, then it will fail anyway so it won't matter. So there is nothing really to worry about with the lifetime subs. What's important right now is the $250+ they have donated to get the game funded.
DAOC Live (inactive): R11 Cleric R11 Druid R11 Minstrel R9 Eldritch R6 Sorc R6 Scout R6 Healer
Backers: 10027
Average Daily Pledges: $57,215
Average Pledge Per Backer: $160
This should be ilegal... 160$ per backer is an insane amount in a kickstarter campain. Anyway only 10k backers this is a clearly indication that this project is destined to fail, as MJ said they did the kickstarter to see if there where enought people interested, well you got 10k ... and your lower pledge tiers are empty... so they should rethink how that went.
Also like some people said i will not be surprised if misteriously more 5k -10k tiers open up in the next day, just for closing the gap to be funded and grab the money.
So.. how do you "know" that "tens of thousands" will buy the game, assuming it will get made?
I must admit I have never read as many specualtions and assumptions getting made into self-proclaimed "fachts" as on this board.
Humourosity at all the hateful people in this thread. Don't you know your negative focus does more harm to you than the object of your attention? Silly geese.
Anyrate, I am one hundred percent confident this will fund. I'll bet one dollar.
Hi
Silly goose, don't you know MMORPG.com is only for negativity and favorable comments is blasphemous?
Any rate, if it does fund it will be a very close call. And if it does it will be intresting how the game turns out. Ideals are intriguing but I need more than just ideals, talk, and imo pointless tech demos to sell me on the product.
That average is misleading, I think.
If I'm understanding the tier breakdowns correctly, then around 220 backers have provided 25% ($400K) of the money so far. Which means around 10K backers have provided the other $1.2M, which is a more modest $120 each.
If another 5-10K new backers arrive in the next 3 days to pledge the outstanding $400K, then all will be well. But if another 200 backers provide the outstanding $400K, then things look a lot less healthy in the long term.
The 220 "whales" have kicked-in $1,800 each on average. CU seems to have quite a few wealthy supporters ?
EDIT: WoW ! In just the last hour, 3 more backers have grabbed $10,000 pledges ! Hurry, there's only ONE still available !
The same way I know there will be tens of thousands of people who will buy TESO, Wildstar, ArchAge, World of Darkness, and any other major MMO that is released. That's what always happens.
DAOC Live (inactive): R11 Cleric R11 Druid R11 Minstrel R9 Eldritch R6 Sorc R6 Scout R6 Healer
People spending their own money should be illegal? Well ok then, comrade. If Mark doesn't like the number of backers, he does have the option of cancelling the Kickstarter before the deadline. It's not going to happen, however. Or at least not if he ever wants to be taken seriously as an MMO developer in the future.
DAOC Live (inactive): R11 Cleric R11 Druid R11 Minstrel R9 Eldritch R6 Sorc R6 Scout R6 Healer
Really ?
That must be why there are so few small developers around these days. All the good ones from years ago sold their souls to EA & Vivendi for large amounts of CASH and stock options. Every single one of them ended-up preferring the money over anything else... so much for "the Game and the Players".
I think it would be nice if that were true, but a business is all about the bottom line. Intentions may be good, but putting bread on the table will always be of utmost importance to any business. That's the very nature of a business.
Played: UO, DAoC, Shadowbane, DDO, LOTRO, Aion, Rift, TERA
Sampled: WoW, AoC, GW2, Vanguard, FF XIV, Neverwinter
Playing: ESO
But all those are big budget mmos. Whether they will be polished at release remains to be seen, but guaranteed those will take time to bring to market and will not be rushed!
I would give you a guest pass to SWOTR, but then I wouldn't be able to find a way to live with myself afterwards....
Edit for clarity: CCP seems to be doing just fine putting what their players want before cash grabbing.
"Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me truth."