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Nail in the coffin?

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  • PoporiPopori Hickory Grove, SCPosts: 334Member
    Consoles ride the PC wave.
  • ForumPvPForumPvP KingstownPosts: 871Member

    Some more nails in the consoles coffin.

    What about softwares and hardware i can use on my PC and on my MAC and maybe on Linux,big maybe.

    which is absolutely brilliant.

    Do they think like that on console world ? it would be awesome if i could play my PS game ,which i just bought ,on XBox ?

    im sure many thinks that it would  be awesome,but i have bad news for you it only happens on pc side.

    At some point when you buy your super mario 100 ,you will get versions for all console platforms,something like that must happen or many consoles will die and when theres only 1 console in the market,imagine that Mario 100 ,only 500$ cheap.

     

    Let's internet

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Posts: 14,772Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Rocketeer
    Originally posted by Quizzical
    Originally posted by Rocketeer

    You know i could totally see that. Some mobiles can already output games at HD, i't would totally make sense to dock them into a station and add keyboard, mice and a big screen to it. Or a TV and a controller, you know instead of a console. Next gen mobile chips will have full opengl 4.2 support includng tessellation at full HD.

    ...

    Personally i see the future of consoles alot more skeptic though, they are expensive considering you can "only" game with them(contrary to lets say a smartphone) and even the actual games themselves are the most expensive of any platform. They are also mostly closed platforms(access controlled by manufacturer), making them hard to get into for smaller game companies. And all of their precious power is wasted once game streaming enters the picture(The game gets rendered on a serverfarm, you only need to be able to playback the HD stream that gets send to you, we are talking about a 50$ hardware investment here...).

    The way things are going the low game prices on iOS and android have already pretty much hurt the console manufacturers(think psp etc), once you get to add a big screen and a controller to the phone/tablet ... Give them them a further generation or two and they will have plenty of power to handle some really pretty gfx all the while boasting content prices in the single digits.

    It's one thing to be able to output a 1080p image to the screen.  It's quite another to be able to render 60 complex 3D images per second and have them available to output to the screen.  Cell phones are a long way from being able to do that with anything more than rudimentary 3D graphics.

    There is kind of a minimum performance threshold that you need for heavy use of tessellation to make sense, and the threshold depends some on how complex of a scene you're trying to render.  But above that, tessellation is a performance optimization, as it lets you use few vertices for faraway objects--which in most scenes, means nearly everything.  If you're using tessellation to drag your frame rates way down, you're doing it wrong.

    Imagination has promised that at least one variant of PowerVR Rogue (6 series) graphics would support OpenGL 4, but I don't know if vendors will use that.  Even if they do for tablets, it might not make it into cell phones.  And I don't know if that's only 4.0, or if they're going to support the full 4.3.  AMD already supports the full OpenGL 4.3, but won't make chips for cell phones anytime soon.

    Other mobile vendors (Qualcomm, ARM, Nvidia) aren't yet supporting the full OpenGL, but only OpenGL ES.  Apple meanwhile doesn't support anything later than OpenGL 3.2 on Mac OS X, even in Macs that ship video cards that would support OpenGL 4.3 on either Windows or Linux.  So it's far from clear that Apple will bring the full OpenGL to iOS anytime soon.

    -----

    Streaming games as you describe is only for the ultra low end.  I recently helped a friend pick out a $400 laptop (based on an A8-4500M), and while he's not a gamer, if he were, I'm not aware of a single game where he'd get a better gaming experience from streaming the game than rendering it locally.  Even if OnLive or some analogous service offered every single game ever made, it's likely that the only games that would ever make sense to stream are those that flatly won't run at all on Windows 8.

    And it's not just that game streaming needs to get better.  If he still uses the laptop five years from now, it will likely be about the same scenario, where all or very nearly all games that will run on Windows 8 at all are better off rendered locally.

    Now, what percentage of gamers do you think have a computer that is at least as good as today's $400 laptop?  What percentage of gamers three years from now do you think will have a computer that is at least as good as today's $400 laptop?  Whatever it is, it's surely going to be a large chunk of the market.  And game streaming is irrelevant to them, outside of some niches where people really want things to run on a cell phone or some such.

    Actually i was talking about the tegra SoCs coming after Logan. Only got the new roadmap in hardcover form from a magazine here, but it will support full OpenGL 4.3 and have about 100x the computational power of the tegra 2. The magazine isn't known for hyperbole and they back those statement as probable(with some usual minor help along).

    Also look at this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSJAEGQJZCM "Old" gameplay footage running on 2 generations old hardware and tell me it couldn't pass as console footage. Sure gameplay wise with the focus on only 1 enemy on screen etc you'll notice, but the gfx alone? But then again this is actually running on well beyond full HD resolution aswell as being old AND based on OpenGL 3.2 i think, and OpenGL went pretty far since then as far as optimisation goes.

    Compared to PCs and consoles smartphone SoCs develop at a rapidly faster pace, its a question of when they catch up, not a question of if. Atleast until we move to 4k resolution screens. But like someone pointed already pointed out, if you stay at full HD resolutions that last two generations of CPU and GFX hardly added anything for you.

    Personally i think you underestimate the power of current days specialized SoCs running optimzed code(which i assume games made for phones/tablets are). For example i have a 35$ RPi that plays H.264 Video at FullHD with the CPU ideling, which is something my 6 core desktop PC with a decent nvidia card doesn't manage. Also when i read things like nvidia improving the framerate in game xy by over 40% ... that tells me everything i need to know about the state of drivers on PC and their efficency. Who knows, if they didn't want to sell new GFX they might be able to tickle out another couple dozen percent points.

    The next generation Nvidia Tegra GPU (Tegra 5) will use Kepler graphics.  But we already basically know what the energy efficiency of Kepler is, from desktop parts.  Maybe they'll make a variant with 24 shaders and run it at 300 MHz and stick it in cell phones, but that's not going to match the performance of a GTX 680.  You scale down power consumption and you scale down performance with it.

    As for claims of 100x the performance of Tegra 2, Nvidia is known for wildly overestimating the performance of future products.  Imagine if AMD were to claim that a Radeon HD 7970 would offer 10 times the performance of a Radeon HD 6970.  And by that, they meant, it would offer so much more performance at atomic counters (where it genuinely does offer that sort of boost), not general gaming performance--but without explicitly specifying that.  That's the sort of thing that Nvidia marketing does in their claims of future products.

    Now, if Nvidia wanted to make a next generation Tegra product that had a 384-shader Kepler part clocked at up to 600 MHz with four ARM Cortex A15 cores clocked at 2.5 GHz, they could.  And they'd need a laptop form factor for it, because it would be something like a 35 W part.  Nvidia might well do that and make laptops that run either Android or Windows RT, but such a part isn't going in cell phones.

    The video that you linked for me doesn't work.  Regardless, if it's using OpenGL 3.2, then there aren't any cell phones at all that it will run on, and the only tablets it will run on are a few Windows 7 or 8 tablets that run an AMD Hondo or Desna chip.  Just because you can make an OpenGL 3.2 game run great on a desktop doesn't automatically mean that it will run well on a cell phone.  OpenGL 3.2 is roughly equivalent to DirectX 10.

    -----

    I don't think you understand what "you're limited by power, not transistor count" means, even though I said it earlier.  If you did, then you wouldn't make the ridiculous claims about phones catching up to desktops.  You can scale performance for a given architecture quite a bit.  If you design a particular processor core, then having 4 of them running at a given clock speed will use twice as much power as having two of them at that clock speed.  Having 16 of them means you use vastly more power than if you only have one.  Likewise, if you have a given CPU core running at 4 GHz, it uses vastly more power than if it's only running at 1 GHz.  It's probably more than a factor of 4 here, as you'd use a higher voltage for the higher clock speed.

    It's the same thing with graphics.  A Radeon HD 5870 and a Radeon HD 5450 are basically the same architecture.  But one chip has 20 SIMD engines and the other has 1.  A Radeon HD 7970 GHz Edition has 32 GCN CUs typically running at 1.05 GHz, while the Temash dual core tablet chip will have 1 GCN CU running somewhere around 300 MHz.  They'll be the same architecture, but the former will offer around 100 times the graphical performance of the latter.

    So why offer the latter?  Power consumption.  Typical high end desktop parts can put out about 200 W for the video card and 100 W for the processor.  In a high end gaming laptop, you can do more like 75 W for the video card and 45 W for the processor.  In a relatively high end tablet, you probably want to stay under 10 W for both of them added together.  In a cell phone, you want something closer to 1 or 2 W.  What happens when you reduce the power budget available?  You have to scale back performance accordingly.

    Now, unless you think that we're soon going to have cell phones that can use 300 W, they're not going to catch up to gaming desktops.

    -----

    I'm not underestimating what you can do with a chip built for a special purpose.  You're overestimating what special purposes chips can be built for.  When you're doing video decode for a given file format, you do the same computations in the same order a zillion times.  You can handle that by making a video decode block that is built to do those computations in that order and can't do anything else.  And yes, you can make this a lot more efficient than using some general purpose software.

    But GPUs are already as heavily specialized for general gaming performance as is practical.  It's been that way for a long time.  Different games will want to run different instructions in different orders.  Different programs (in the technical OpenGL sense, not as in an application that you'd launch from your desktop) within the same game will want to run different instructions in different orders.  Different shaders within the same program will want to run different instructions in different orders.  Even different invocations of the same shader may run different instructions in different orders if the shader has any branching at all--which many don't.  You can't optimize a GPU for game performance to nearly the same degree that you can optimize for video decoding.

    While you could build a GPU around being optimized for one particular shader used in one particular game and see big gains for that particular shader, you'd end up with a GPU that can't run any other games at all, and can't even run the game that the one shader is part of because it can't run other shaders in the same game.

    -----

    If a driver update improves performance in a given game by 40%, then it probably means that the previous drivers were basicaly broken and they fixed it.  5% here or 10% there as a one-time performance improvement for a given can happen, but 40% is pretty rare.  And you might be able to improve performance by 10% in this game one month, then 10% in a different game the next month, then 10% in yet another game the month after, but that doesn't add up to a cumulative 30% performance improvement in anything.

  • RocketeerRocketeer NachrodtPosts: 1,304Member
    Originally posted by ForumPvP

    Some more nails in the consoles coffin.

    What about softwares and hardware i can use on my PC and on my MAC and maybe on Linux,big maybe.

    which is absolutely brilliant.

    Do they think like that on console world ? it would be awesome if i could play my PS game ,which i just bought ,on XBox ?

    im sure many thinks that it would  be awesome,but i have bad news for you it only happens on pc side.

    At some point when you buy your super mario 100 ,you will get versions for all console platforms,something like that must happen or many consoles will die and when theres only 1 console in the market,imagine that Mario 100 ,only 500$ cheap.

     

    Your doing it wrong. Your supposed to buy all three consoles. You know, because exclusive titles rock.

    @ Quizzical:

    Ok this is getting to long to quote but what your posting is contrary to my experience. The computer i started with 20 years ago had a tiny tiny fraction of the power my PC today has while actually having an higher energy footprint(sure it was a mainframe but still). So obviously you completely discount technological progress. Also i explictly said i was talking about the Tegra chip AFTER Logan(which is tegra 6 since apparently your not overly familiar with nvidias roadmap). The codename is parker btw, and it will be based on the maxwell architecture not kepler.

    So let me put this really simple 2 SoC generations from now(Logan --> Parker) we will be able to run OpenGL 4.3 games(full OpenGL support, actually even with Logan) at full HD on them. Maywell is estimated at 32 GFlops/W btw, which puts last generation games right into reach. Sure consoles and PCs will have way more raw power, but you won't notice at 3-4m distance on your couch besides wether a game runs at 40fps or 400fps is largely unimportant. Not to mention their games won't cost in the single-low double digits.

     

    If you think this is all bullshit, sure be my guest. But im saying this guy is heralding a new era(and thats running a tegra 3, while im talking about tegra 6). 99$, every game free to test atleast, quality controller included. This is what parents will give their kids(instead of 700$ console that won't even be able to run previous gens games. Freaking brilliant MS), you know to go with their android phone since they are in the ecosystem already, so they can play angry birds 4 and infinity blade 4. And when that thing doesn't perform anymore ... you switch it out for the newest version, its only 99 bucks after all.

    And yeah PC and expensive consoles will suffer, because frankly these new devices will cut into their profits and their market share is already falling rapidly anyway if compared to the growing smartphone/tablet market. Cause thats what people forget, publishers don't look at a absolute numbers they look at relative numbers and profit relative to licensing and production costs. And how do you think a Android game f.e. compares to a PC/console title there? Hell even i am considering buying one of those ouya's and i never owned a console in my life. But at that price? Even if i just use it as a media server and for some streaming its worth it.

  • eye_meye_m Notta Chance, ABPosts: 3,133Member Uncommon
    if a person is ok with only having what is currently available quality-wise, then the mediums can become smaller and smaller, but people want what is better. Better requires more power. More power generates more heat, and requires more electricity (battery life). The mere fact that people want bigger and better implies that PC's will not die because it is the only consumer medium that has the ability to upgrade components to suit increased demands. 

    All of my posts are either intelligent, thought provoking, funny, satirical, sarcastic or intentionally disrespectful. Take your pick.

    I get banned in the forums for games I love, so lets see if I do better in the forums for games I hate.

    I enjoy the serenity of not caring what your opinion is.

  • ForumPvPForumPvP KingstownPosts: 871Member
    Originally posted by Rocketeer
    Originally posted by ForumPvP

    Some more nails in the consoles coffin.

    What about softwares and hardware i can use on my PC and on my MAC and maybe on Linux,big maybe.

    which is absolutely brilliant.

    Do they think like that on console world ? it would be awesome if i could play my PS game ,which i just bought ,on XBox ?

    im sure many thinks that it would  be awesome,but i have bad news for you it only happens on pc side.

    At some point when you buy your super mario 100 ,you will get versions for all console platforms,something like that must happen or many consoles will die and when theres only 1 console in the market,imagine that Mario 100 ,only 500$ cheap.

     

    Your doing it wrong. Your supposed to buy all three consoles. You know, because exclusive titles rock.

    Thats even bigger problem if we think like OP thinks,then in the future there would be 20 different consoles,gotta catch em all.

    Maybe i should start Kickstarter project 10-in-one mega console,super smash hit! play all games in 1 console.

    Catchphrase "You only have 2 hands,respect them"  or  "my home,1 console inside 19 outside"

    Let's internet

  • RocketeerRocketeer NachrodtPosts: 1,304Member
    Originally posted by eyelolled
    if a person is ok with only having what is currently available quality-wise, then the mediums can become smaller and smaller, but people want what is better. Better requires more power. More power generates more heat, and requires more electricity (battery life). The mere fact that people want bigger and better implies that PC's will not die because it is the only consumer medium that has the ability to upgrade components to suit increased demands. 

    That totally exaplains why a game like minecraft with gfx that would shame an 386 was such a smashing success. Maybe people just want good games, with MAYBE decent graphics at a fair price? I mean lord knows thats not what AMD, Nvidia, Intel or MS want us to think, but you know they kinda life from screwing us over with gampley wise inferior products to titles we had 20 years ago.

    I wan't the xcom series in HD, not even state of the art, but actual increased playthrough time and content. Because we are currently getting screwed over with titles that have great graphics but zero replayability and content for about 10 hours. Thats 80$(cause you know they will raise game prices on consoles again soonish) please.

    I mean i just need to look at my steam catalog most played:

    Borderlands 2: 26 hours

    Dungeon Defenders: 108 hours

    XCOM: EU: 19 hours

    OMG1&2: 50 and 100 respectively

    FTL: 37 Hours

    JC2: 17 hours

    Majesty 2: 120 hours

    Sins > 50 hours

    Star Rule: 79 hours

     

    The only AAA title near the top is DoW: Soulstorm with 88 hours.

    Now sure im more of a MMO player, but still looking at my steam 96 game catalog there are alot of AAA games in it that i certainly regret buying. In hindsight, i probably should have stayed with the independents and a certain few very handpicked AAA titles.

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Posts: 14,772Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Rocketeer

    Ok this is getting to long to quote but what your posting is contrary to my experience. The computer i started with 20 years ago had a tiny tiny fraction of the power my PC today has while actually having an higher energy footprint(sure it was a mainframe but still). So obviously you completely discount technological progress. Also i explictly said i was talking about the Tegra chip AFTER Logan(which is tegra 6 since apparently your not overly familiar with nvidias roadmap). The codename is parker btw, and it will be based on the maxwell architecture not kepler.

    So let me put this really simple 2 SoC generations from now(Logan --> Parker) we will be able to run OpenGL 4.3 games(full OpenGL support, actually even with Logan) at full HD on them. Maywell is estimated at 32 GFlops/W btw, which puts last generation games right into reach. Sure consoles and PCs will have way more raw power, but you won't notice at 3-4m distance on your couch besides wether a game runs at 40fps or 400fps is largely unimportant. Not to mention their games won't cost in the single-low double digits.

     

    If you think this is all bullshit, sure be my guest. But im saying this guy is heralding a new era(and thats running a tegra 3, while im talking about tegra 6). 99$, every game free to test atleast, quality controller included. This is what parents will give their kids(instead of 700$ console that won't even be able to run previous gens games. Freaking brilliant MS), you know to go with their android phone since they are in the ecosystem already, so they can play angry birds 4 and infinity blade 4. And when that thing doesn't perform anymore ... you switch it out for the newest version, its only 99 bucks after all.

    And yeah PC and expensive consoles will suffer, because frankly these new devices will cut into their profits and their market share is already falling rapidly anyway if compared to the growing smartphone/tablet market. Cause thats what people forget, publishers don't look at a absolute numbers they look at relative numbers and profit relative to licensing and production costs. And how do you think a Android game f.e. compares to a PC/console title there? Hell even i am considering buying one of those ouya's and i never owned a console in my life. But at that price? Even if i just use it as a media server and for some streaming its worth it.

    Sure, mobile devices will get better.  You know what else will get better?  Desktops.  And everything else.  That doesn't help mobile devices close or even narrow the chasm.

    Tegra Logan is Kepler, while Tegra Parker is Maxwell.  Kepler parts are already out, and Maxwell will be the next generation, presumably on a 20 nm process node.  Kepler already offers full OpenGL 4.3 support, so presumably Tegra Logan will, too.  Actually, there might be an OpenGL 4.4 by then.

    Maxwell isn't available yet, but 32 GFLOPS per watt is plausible, at least as a peak number (which means spamming FMA) for ULV parts at single precision and counting the GPU only.  Actually, I'm tempted to simplify those units to 32 GFLOP/J.

    So let's suppose that you get a 32 GFLOPS part in a cell phone.  That will let you do some fairly rudimentary 3D graphics.  But if you want the game to look decent and if you want to have a lot of things moving around on the screen at once (e.g., if you're making an MMORPG), 32 GFLOPS peak performance isn't going to get you 60 frames per second.

    -----

    As for Ouya, you've been able to get really cheap gaming devices for decades.  It might have been before your time, but they used to have dinky little handheld gaming devices that would come with one game.  They were monochrome, and had maybe 20 or so spots where you could color something black or not.  They weren't pixels, really, as each particular spot would be an entire object (e.g., your character, or a monster), and it could draw the character there or not.

    They made them and they were cheap, but no one thought it was a serious alternative to the NES.  Just like no one will think that Ouya is a serious alternative to the PlayStation 4--or to a real PC.

    -----

    Here are AMD's projections for the game market from 2011-2015:

    http://www.brightsideofnews.com/news/2013/3/27/gaming-is-amds-future3b-launch-and-previews-of-new-gaming-tech.aspx

    Don't bother reading the whole article.  I just wanted to link to the first slide.  Yes, the market for cell phone games is growing.  So is the market for PC gaming.  And for game consoles.  No one is saying that there is no place in the world for cell phones, apart from a few crazies who think they cause cancer.  But neither does the survival of cell phones mean that PCs are going to disappear.

  • ignore_meignore_me Apple Valley, CAPosts: 1,987Member
    In 1994 I first heard this prophecy of doom while working at a software store.

    Survivor of the great MMORPG Famine of 2011

  • aRtFuLThinGaRtFuLThinG MelbournePosts: 1,133Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by ForumPvP

    Some more nails in the consoles coffin. 

     Yes exactly it is console that is on the decline, not PC.

    As I mentioned earlier, emulators, virtualization and thin clienting has basically remove the need to have delicate platforms.

    PC can potentially use all the peripherials that console can use (or be simulated into using), however consoles on the other hand have limitations on PC peripherials.

    Also, as someone as people mentioned before, PC seems to have a longer overall lifespan nowadays.

    Finally PC can easily handle titles that have game editors/builders, such as Fallout, Neverwinter Nights, Skyrim, etc. Console doesn't allow such type of creativity.

  • syntax42syntax42 Columbus, OHPosts: 1,305Member Uncommon

    I didn't read the entire thread, but I wanted to add my perspective.

     

    If anything, technologies are converging.  The original XBox was a significant milestone in converging the console technology with computers.  From what I remember, developers didn't like it at first, but they accepted it more as they realized how similar it was to a PC.  Newer consoles are also becoming more and more like PCs.  The only difference is the proprietary operating systems and the selective hardware support.  Otherwise, they are starting to be programmed just like a computer instead of programming it like some unique piece of hardware with a unique processor instruction set.

     

    Even mobile and PC technologies are converging.  Windows 8 was a major attempt to bring the two together.  A lot of debate exists over how good it is, but it basically proved the operating systems can be the same between mobile and desktop devices.  

     

    The OP referred to the decline in PC sales as evidence the PC is going away, but failed to point out the rise in other computer device sales.  The technologies are not that far different from each other and a rise in a specialized part of computing will lead to a rise in another part of computing.  More mobile devices means more servers to handle the processing those devices don't have.  The desktop's strengths will always have an application in hardware-intensive programs that a mobile device won't be able to handle.  Making the devices work together is what I think we will see more of as the technologies converge.

  • TrionicusTrionicus Fort Lauderdale, FLPosts: 497Member

    I'm not even sure I buy the whole "PS3 / XBOX 360 held their own" thing. I used to think that maybe they did, that was until I played Crysis maxed out. Then I was pretty pissed at the graphical sacrifices I had to make because of the cross platform thing.

    I love Skyrim but I thought it should have looked much better, at least, better than a game from 08. Alas, it was a cross platform game and I can't blame a company for wanting to make money.

    At the time of the PS3 release it hit very close to $800 in Canada (taxes suck there). People were lined up for it, this doesn't include the folks who were willing to ebay it at release, which went up to 3x-5x the price. Moral of the story is, if gamers are willing to throw their money at consoles without a second thought because of fanboyism, then anything is possible, including the death of the gaming PC. After all, you might be able to predict hardware advances, but it's much harder to predict people.

  • TheJodaTheJoda chicago, ILPosts: 467Member

    PC's arent dying, their sales have continued to decline due to MOST of us BUILD our own now. I cant  think of when I bought one last from a store.

    I wish some people would do some research before......... /random post of D00m!

    ....Being Banned from MMORPG's forums since 2010, for Trolling the Trolls!!!

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