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My predictions for the upcoming MMOs (if I missed one state so in a post)
Dihoru
Member Posts: 2,731
In recent years I've rarely went out and stated what my predictions for an MMO even though most of my guesses (which I will state right now are based on experience, information given by the devs, or even the amounts given, and personal opinion, ergo they are in not facts) were fairly accurate (Hell I even predicted the TORtanic would be F2P within a year of launch after just one beta weekend) so I feel like sharing some predictions, getting allot of shills pissed off and maybe hearing some actual opinions back:
Games yet to be launched:
Age of Wushu: Gonna go the way of most more balanced MMOs (equal parts PVE and PVP) go these days: small group of dedicated fans if the current F2P system is maintained, if not it might actually blossom a bit more but overall not going to be a massive hit.
Archeage: If the developers step up their game somewhat this could end up the EVE of fantasy games (that may sound like a bold statement but EVE at launch only really had better designed money sinks in place and that's about it, everything else in EVE got put in with further expansions which could happen with Archeage if the developers do right by the game but this will take time, reckon at least 2 maybe 3 years if done right).
Neverwinter Online: Going to be the wet dream of any DnD fan that doesn't have a stick lodged up their ass about character customization and if Cryptic maintains their, apparent, heading with game development (this prediction is for 1 year post launch, regardless how they go about introducing new classes, cash shop or normal, they'll be available to all via trading for zen points).
Wildstar: A good example of a game who's hype initially fooled me but after digesting all the information offered by the developers I am going to have to say this game will likely fall beneath expectations of it... it's a themepark, a good one but still a themepark and it has very few places where emergent gameplay can occur ergo it in itself will likely be a game for those who like the universe/lore or the apparent focus on raiding but the content burn and the quality of the content offered will be a deciding factor as it, as a game, does not have the clout to gather a critical mass of players to it such as WoW did in its early days.
Destiny(yeah I am gonna touch on this one): While still very early on in production and with little information offered I can offer up one real prediction: If it is a console exclusive and they follow all their plans regarding its features it's going to flop fantastically because regardless of how good a game it may or may not be an MMO on a console just doesn't work as well as one on a desktop/laptop hell even on a phone or tablet regardless of what the next gen consoles bring (which by the sounds of things are leaning ever more towards the pre-built expensive crap computer,like Macs for example, than anything else). If they go cross platform (PC and console) then it will likely be a massive hit as the inertia of the PC market will keep console versions in the public eye far longer than they normally would.
Games that have been launched:
World of Warcraft: Will likely never actually die, sub numbers will drop to around 4-5 mil and stabilize again for years and possibly the only change which might occur is it going F2P if Titan turns out to be a P2P game (why not maintain it P2P? with it being F2P it'll draw a massive amount of people in and its quality would help to promote, indirectly, Titan).
World of Warcraft's clones(both innovative or cookie cutter): Will continue to be either marginally profitable or even decently profitable in F2P format for to foreseeable future as their communities and decent deals towards players (for the most part, SWTOR doesn't count here as it is not even remotely a decent deal for what it offers should you pay anything) will keep their inertia up.
EVE-Online: Will likely to continue to grow if the post-Incarna development priorities continue even if a vocal misinformed minority of players regard the PVP or the skill system to be disadvantageous towards their playstyle.
Pre-WoW MMOs (Everquest, Runescape,UO,etc): Will likely continue to exist in official form for the foreseeable future unless their publishers fold and take the IP/code/servers with them (read: EA).
Sandbox and Themepark: The two genres will eventually combine to supply the best MMO experience possible for the largest audience while also maintaing emergent gameplay (territorial wars in lawless/wilderness areas, meaningful crafting, player driven economy,etc), likely with a PVP system similar to EVE but likely more strict, which will help developers with the content/feature/iteration death march any MMO demands.
Thoughts?
Comments
I think Age of Wushu is going to do fairly well least compared to what many would have expected. Seems to have quite the following. Nothing huge but it will do okay.
Neverwinter will do alright. It isn't going to change the mmo market as we know it, but I think over time if Cryptic keeps evolving it and adding elements to the Foundry it could be one that experiences growth over time. It could potentially be their most profitable and populated venue in comparison to CO and STO.
AA - Eh....you got me. Some elements with this game seem really interesting and others look pretty awful.Should be a dream come true for those that enjoy crafting that much is sure. Kind of a wild card imo. Has some hype but really it is amongst a select few. Generally speaking seems the majority could give a shit about the game or simply aren't aware of it regardless how some talk it up.
Wildstar - I don't know enough about it to comment either way.
Defiance - I don't think this game is going to take off like some believe. I actually think (deserved or not) it is going to tank considering what Trion and Syfy are banking on.
EDIT: Isn't TESO supposed to come out this year too? Kind of curious how that one is going to be received.
You also forgot "The Most Anticipated MMO of 2013!". Scarlet Blade that is. Come on now.
>_>
1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.
2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.
3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.
Good read thanks for sharing your thoughts on the upcoming MMORPG's.
You should list blade and soul unless im having a brain fart on seeing that one.
I think the top 2 games for me this year will be:
ArcheAge and Blade and Soul.
Archeage even in its curent form is more appealing to me then any other game made.
Oh also, you forgot Origins of Malu. It is going into closed beta soonish but it probably wont hit open beta until Q3 2013. it looks to be VERY sandbox and has some seriously amazing functions and crafting and free form player housing. YOu LITERALLY build your own house block by block
Hero Evermore
Guild Master of Dragonspine since 1982.
Playing Path of Exile and deeply in love with it.
Don't know enough of Blade and Soul and it really isn't my type of game ergo I can't really offer up any predictions as I don't have experience with that particular offshoot of MMOs, it looks decent but beyond that :-??.
Thanks for pointing out Origins of Malu though (never heard of it), grabbed a CB key and I'll be checking it out come the 1st or 2nd of April
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I played the Chinese version of Age of Wushu (and yes, i can read chinese). There is too much running around, and many mini-games.
I *may* go back to give another look but so far it did not hook me. And oh, there are instances.
I do wonder if it will be PvP games like Age of Wushu or ArchAge that eventually become the games that finally create a good non-linear PvE experience for non-hamster PvE players.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2_hZdvQO9w
The PvE games seem mostly obsessed with the combat to the exclusion of everything else.
Can't see WoW going F2P for the forseeable future. As long as it has subs in excess of one million I don't see it happening, and I don't see that happening for a long time indeed. Why change when the cash is flowing in so rapidly as is.
Titan will be successful but I don't see it impacting WoW any more than any other prior MMO and Blizzard are too shrewd to make it a direct competitor in the MMORPG market so it will cater to a different crowd.
I don't see sandbox and themeparks every really combining that well in the near future as the audiences tend to be too polarised currently.
A heavily promoted bungie game? It is probably going to be successful independent on what platform it runs on.
And making it a mainstream online shooter, and not a MMO, probably helps.
You forgot Final Fantasy XIV A Realm Reborn.
For me most anticipated mmorpgs are: ARR, WildStar, AA, TESO
I don't know about that. A lot of the people who talk about sandboxs want something very specific but i think there's probably a lot of people in the middle who just want a non-linear version of what already exists e.g. a game like Skyrim if you could start in multiple locations and the main quest didn't begin until you triggered it.