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The only threat to WoW is Blizzard (and/or Ghostcrawler...^^). How many countless times has some "WoW killer" been hyped to the skies over the last eight plus years, only to fall so very FAR short? WoW is fading, but it still has years and years to go.
WoW isn't nearly the game it once was, but its still a good game all the way to level cap. But it "only" has 9 million players... Do you have ANY idea how many game companies would *kill* to have even half of that? Let alone the BILLIONS of dollars that WoW has made Blizzard over the years?
Besides, its not just a question of IP. Thats just one element of a very complex package. Look at how badly Bioware messed up one of the most famous IP's in the world (Star Wars The Old Republic). Or even worse, what Cryptic did with Star Trek.
What I'm waiting to see is Titan. While I'm not expecting it, if it explodes anything like WoW did, then WoW wasn't just a fluke. If thats the case, then Blizzard is going to be around for a long, LONG time.
I don't think IP is a very relevant factor when it comes to MMOs. It might affect how many people you get at first, but only quality will dictate whether they stay or leave, and I'd say that a game that starts small and slowly grows has a much bigger chance than one that starts big and shrinks.
Just look at SWTOR, for example. Going by IP alone it would have been a much stronger contender, the warcraft IP is minuscule when compared to the star wars one. LotR also has a much bigger one. Heck, I'd go as far as saying that Conan has a bigger IP (outside of the MMO audience, at least).
I'd even say that using a well known IP can be a hindrance more than a help. It limits what you can do and part of the budget needs to go to paying for it, and can be taken away anytime (look at star wars galaxies, for example). Personally I say that if a new game comes out that dethrones WoW (which I don't see as something that will happen overnight either, but through years), it'll be either an original or a lesser known IP, or most likely an existing one from the same company. Heck, even WoW when it came out it was a lesser known IP in the MMO world (which was much smaller back then), plus it was Blizzard's original IP so getting it didn't put a dent on the budget in the first place
Going for the ones that the OP mentioned, though. Mario I don't really see working as an MMO. The games are very different enough from each other that creating an actual consistent world isn't an easy task. When it comes to nintendo, I'd see Pokemon, Zelda or maybe even Metroid as better fit to be translated into MMOs.
Harry Potter is one game I could see maybe working as an MMO, maybe something like a more sanitized version of TSW, people with magical powers in a present day setting. However, the budget would need to be huge just to pay for the license, which makes it harder to become profitable.
What can men do against such reckless hate?
Still beating myself up for missing the WOW boat when it first came out... what the heck was I playing at the time? oh well...
IP to beat WoW would be: World of Starcraft!
World of Warcraft
Yeah, they are dethroning themselves. That and if you want to consider "Time" or "Over-saturations of MMos available" as an IP then those would also be directly connected as well.
So long as WoW continues to keep it's foreign subscribers it's American pressence isn't going anywhere because they'll continue to make it seem that the number of subs they have are all 100% American despite the truth.
It's okay tho, eventually it will die and maybe just maybe companies will not try to emulate them anymore.
Originally posted by Ozivois Still beating myself up for missing the WOW boat when it first came out... what the heck was I playing at the time? oh well... IP to beat WoW would be: World of Starcraft!
Heh, it would be Universe or something. Most likely Blizzard's next game is the one to claim it.
Originally posted by Fendel84M Originally posted by Pivotelite Originally posted by Fendel84M I'd honestly say GW2 has a good chance at growing to WoW like numbers. It seems to be the only MMO since WoW thats actually gaining momentum since launch, rather than losing it.
It's definitely not gaining momentum. But it's not dying rapidly like most new MMOs either.
and I'd disagree that its not gaining momentum.
You are kidding right? Never ques on servers, WvW is fairly empty, and guilds are dissolving left and right. Compared to launch, it s definately not growing.
It's funny how people still think that the Warcraft IP was what made WoW so great. It was the gameplay and game design, nothing more. Warcraft lore has always been very bland and cliche, if not at least serviceable. Popular IP's come with a built-in fan base, but they do nothing to predict how good the game will be. Lord of the Rings and Star Wars (both MMO's) basically failed as a result of poor gameplay.
IP can still be important though, even if it doesn't have to be an existing one. Rift largely fails for being so generic, in both gameplay and lore. The characters and settings are forgetable, and the gameplay is nearly identical to WoW, so the only real advantage it has is better graphics.
You make me like charity
Originally posted by Deto123 Originally posted by Fendel84M Originally posted by Pivotelite Originally posted by Fendel84M I'd honestly say GW2 has a good chance at growing to WoW like numbers. It seems to be the only MMO since WoW thats actually gaining momentum since launch, rather than losing it.
And now add a 15 dollar subscription to GW2 and see the activity after a few months ...
Duh ...at least compare a subscription based game with other subscription based games ... Euhhh if you can find them these days ...
Originally posted by cybertrucker an IP is not going to dethrone WOW..because over half of their registered users are from Asia and registered once and will be counted forever, even if they never play again and half of those are gold sellers.
That's completely false. For the purpose of the Asian market, a subscriber is an account that had an active prepaid time card during the last month. If they didn't have one active, they aren't counted under the subscriber numbers. But sure, keep the misinformation and fearmongering alive.
Originally posted by sportsfan Originally posted by Loke666 Almost any IP with a good enough game could. Do you really care that much if you adventure in Azeroth, middle earth, Fearun, the old world or whatever? World of warcrafts strenght was never the IP, it is at best average. The Blizzard mark on the game is more important than the IP... Wow is ageing and have been loosing players a long time, someone will dethrone it pretty soon and it is not really the IP that is most important there. The new game needs to be well made, fun to play (for the average gamer) and easy enough so anyone can play it.
Always nice one can click on the history button. Here is the 6 year old link of this "future teller"..... in 2007
"Wow will lose players to those games because right now there isn't much competion. Blizzard will be forced to restructure the game a lot and add more content. They will also have to buff up the graphic a lot. If Blizzard spend some of the kazillion money they gotten they can still be the leading game in a few years but eventually every great game declines.
My guess would be a million players by 2010 unless they make a really big change and then 100K by 2015"
Talking about a GW2 viral marketer getting owned by his own claims ...
Of course nobody could know in 2007 WOW would have 9.6 million subs in 2013. The big sruprise though is that all the rest went free to play ... and hasn't got subs anymore...
Dethrone in what ? Meaningless forum posts ?
I'll defend him here.
All of that was spot-on. They did all of the things he predicted, and that takes care of the caveat to his prediction. The restructuring, adding of content, buffed up graphics all equal the really big changes I think he was saying could effect his prediction.
In addition, in the larger sense, he is still correct. The changes have kept them solidly in the lead, but, signs are showing some population slipping - so as he said, eventually, every game declines.
I still think they have several more years on top - *and here's my disclaimer* barring anything unexpected.
Originally posted by Zorgo. I still think they have several more years on top - *and here's my disclaimer* barring anything unexpected.
lol, so since you expect them to have several more years on top... if they dont it would be unexpected and therefore you would still be right.
Originally posted by Loke666 Almost any IP with a good enough game could. Do you really care that much if you adventure in Azeroth, middle earth, Fearun, the old world or whatever? World of warcrafts strenght was never the IP, it is at best average. The Blizzard mark on the game is more important than the IP... Wow is ageing and have been loosing players a long time, someone will dethrone it pretty soon and it is not really the IP that is most important there. The new game needs to be well made, fun to play (for the average gamer) and easy enough so anyone can play it.
The Warcraft IP is the biggest strength to me, the lore is absolutely outstanding...
Originally posted by Cromica Only Blizzard can kill WoW
I agree 100%
The game has too strong of a foothold in the industry now.
Play for fun. Play to win. Play for perfection. Play with friends. Play in another world. Why do you play?
Originally posted by craftseeker Originally posted by Zorgo. I still think they have several more years on top - *and here's my disclaimer* barring anything unexpected.
.....I guess I should clarify;
WoW could lose a million people a year and still have several years on top.
Anything more than that would be way beyond my expectations.
IP that could kill WoW? Ultima Online
Get Raph Koster and Rich Vogel, throw a cool 30 million their way and allow them total creative freedom to put together a team and make whatever they so desire, no restrictions. And if they wanted to start a kickstarter page, I'll be the first to throw them money!
And as far as WoW slowly dying..that's like saying the sun will eventually burn out compared to all other mmos being a lighted match.
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."