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Hypothesis: MMO graphics won't improve
CalmOceans
Member UncommonPosts: 2,437
Graphics of games seems to have stalled and outside of gamers no one really seems to care. I don't see many people upgrading their PC since frankly there's no need. I still use a 5770, that's a card from like 3 years ago and it wans't even a fast card and I can play almost any game.
Nvidia and ATI won/'t upgrade their graphics cards until the end of this year, they were supposed to bring out new cards but they won't. http://www.tomshardware.com/news/Radeon-GeForce-Delay-GPU-Next-Generation,20838.html (confirmed by ATI so it's not a rumour)
Nvidia isn't even focused on PC anymore, if you watch them at CES and other events, they are constantly talking about their Tegra processors for mobiles phones and tablets, PC are quickly mentioned in between them talking about mobile devices, it's really no longer a priority for these guys, their focus is mobile, not PC.
Then there's the question of what drives anyone to upgrade their PC if anything at all.
You used to need to upgrade your PC for more than games, a PC from a few years ago had issues playing HD video, PC right now could do 8k video without blinking. They're powerful enough for video conferencing, for streaming video, for most graphics suites, for most scientific programs, they're GOOD ENOUGH for the majority of people. There is no real reason to want a faster PC unless you're a gamer or are using extremely demanding programs.
I can upgrade my PC but why? It can do everything I throw at it, I'm not upgrading a $1000 machine just to see slightly improved shadows in a game.
Then there's the next gen consoles, they aren't the big upgrades in terms of hardware everyone was anticipating, Sony and Microsoft said they will focus on content delivery and home entertainment, not just specs.
Isn't is possible that graphics simply aren't being improved at all, since it's so hard, PC are really not evolving at the same pace (I have been using PC for years, they really aren't progressing as fast as they used to). To improve graphics you would not need twice the power as before, you now need 20 times as much power before people even notice a difference.
Don't you think it's possible that what you see now is pretty much it for a long time. Nothing seems to be driving upgrading a PC at this point.
Comments
I agree that the evolution in tech is exponential right now, it's going really fast, mobile phones, cameras, sensors.
But I don't think this is happening in the PC "space", I think there needs to be a market for upgrades, where is the market for a faster PC right now outside of games? A faster PC in the past offered many benefits, it made everything faster, it allowed multitasking and HD video, less lag, faster downloads etc. We have all that, I can run anything I want on my PC and it's 3 years old, it's still extremely fast, it can do 4k video, it can do graphics programs, it can do multitasking, it can do 40 tabs in firefox.
Why do I need a new PC outside of gaming? Where is the market that drives this when my 3 year old PC can do 99% I throw at it.
To improve graphics you need a lot of people upgrading their PC, not just a few hardcore gamers, you need to have a driving force of continous upgrades of non-gamers that fuel the desire to have faster PC. It can't depend on PC gaming.
I agree to some extend. My 6 year old PC can play any game still on medium at least (granted it was a good PC back in the day).
But then again in the last 5 years we did see some major improvements gfx wise.
Just think:
EQ2 > WoW > LOTR > AION > SW:TOR > Tera / GW2
they are all improvements of one another. and these games came to be in like the last 10 years only
I'd find a spot in there for AOC somewhere. On the Inde developer forum I used to hang out on, AOC received a lot of praise for how far it raised the graphics bar at the time.
Graphics aren't improving for several reasons:
1) Consoles. This is more of a SP game problem, but most games are multiplatform and the current gen is OLD
2) Budget. Making cutting-edge games is really expensive nowadays.
3) Need. 1080p and 60/120 FPS are all you need on a normal monitor.
These problems could be solved by:
1) New gen. It's unlikely to improve things dramatically, but it'll probably give consoles some new stuff like DX10 features.
2) Procedural generation and better pre-made tools. Procedurally generated grass and trees are already common, but I'd like to see some generated textures and maybe even geometry. Pre-made tools have already made some things like facial expressions much easier and cheaper for the average devs.
3) New toys. 3D VR glasses don't seem that far off, for example. Not much has happened on this front lately, but people always invent something.
Graphics will improve, that's not the question. The question is how fast? My opinion is that graphics in MMOs are improving year by year but at much slower rate than single player PC games/or FPS multiplayer.
Let's compare Crysis from 2007 (little over 5 years ago), that kind of graphics we won't see in mmorpgs for at least 3-5 years. So my hypotesis is that MMO graphics are ~8 years behind PC top quality gfx games, but are slowly progressing.
Guild Wars 2 Youtube Croatian Maniacs
My Guild Wars titles
OP is wrong..
Sure some MMOs stick with cartoon graphics as they are trying to find otu what made wow so popular so they cna get ome of the pie..
But games like AOC(with engine updates), TSW, The latest final fantasy, Entropia Universe, Archeage any of these with high to max settings would make your little 5770 cry.. lets not even start with single player games.. now sure you could run them fine with lower settings LOL but thats not the point, well not for me anyway I like to run games maxed out and run them with good fps anything getting close to 30fps becomes very choppy.. its the reason i have to upgrade from dual ati 6850s to a single Nvidia 670.. the difference was like night and day with maxed otu settings in TSW and a ton of single player games..
lol funny thing he mention about nvdia not care about pc LOL and tell me what is the next geforce gtx titan?
Graphics of MMOs are ever-improving.
GW2 looks better than 99% of single player games.
The distortion and transparency special effects are completely insane, and the character models actually look better than those in Skyrim imo.
Nah even maxed out GW2 does not come close to a game designed to take advantage of PC hardware.. sure its comparable to some console ports but thats it. Skyrim being a console port was not really that amazing they used a lot of cheap tricks to make it look good..
Last time i played GW2 it did not use any DX11 features or anything, even the terrain texters where not exactly the best still it did look better than the majority of the MMORPGs that have come out over the last few years.
Skyrim is a console port. The Witcher 2 would be a better comparison and GW2 doesn't look nearly as good. It has some awesome post-processing effects, but its character models are full of visible polygons and blurry textures when zoomed in. Not to mention some textures are really low-res.
http://images.bit-tech.net/content_images/2010/12/the-witcher-2-interview/witcher2.jpg
http://oyster.ignimgs.com/ve3d/images/08/74/87427_witcher2_2011-05-03_23-36-50-63.jpg
GW2 looks great, but not because it's technically advanced.
I know I upgrade my graphic card a bunch of time for gaming.
I know the spec is definately getting higher and higher. For example firefall that game have quite a high minimum requirement for graphic card.
But I think the buttom line is developer know they'll loss a bunch of potential customer if they keep pushing the system requirement. So there is a balance involved.
And I think someone have said it before, good graphic =/= technically advanced.
MMO graphics have always been 3-4 years after FPS graphics, which of course makes sense since MMOs usually takes 5 years to make while FPS games often are made in a year or 2.
Which of course means that MMO gamers can wait with buying a new computer or upgrade for 5 years while FPS gamers need to upgrade twice so many times if they want to run graphics high.
Nothing new here, computers will still evolve at about the same speed.
I think it is a lot as well to do with the fact that RPGs rarely have that much focus on graphics. Dragon age 1 & 2 hardly have that good graphics either, but if you compare GW2 to a FPS game the graphics isnt that great.
GW2s looks is also a lot more great art than amazing effects and high poly count.
MMO graphics will have gradual improvements. There's no denying the improvements over ther the last 10+ years. But they definitely will not make leaps like FPS games do (as someone earlier mentioned).
GW2 looks pretty decent, and I attribute that more to a visually well designed and implemented game than the big bells and whistles you'll see in a big-name FPS title. It's also not good to compare GW2 looking better than a PC SPRPG like Skyrim. Skyrim is a console port, but graphics wise, was severely hindered by being a console port. Why do you think Betheseda felt a need to release free HD packs for the PC platform? Why do you think there's so many HD texture packs for basic game textures such as the cities, terrain, and even foliage? Why did fans have to implement things like lighting game effects such as ENB? Because vanilla Skyrim on PC was held back due to the cross-platform development, as if it was tied down with a ball and chain.
Even an eye-pleasing title like TERA you can tell is not cutting edge graphics compared to, say, Battlefield 3 on the PC.
Still, GW2 and TERA are done visually well, and showcase a gradual improvement in graphics. I think it will keeep on, but not in very noticeable leaps.
Edit to add: Something I want to put in on a related note to graphics, upgrades, etc. One of the problems, IMO, that PC gaming had years earlier was the very nature of gaming pushing so hard on hardware and upgrades that it turned people from the platform. Upgrading was alot more constant, and therefore more expensive. At least that's what I got from some friends who stopped PC gaming a while back.
"I have only two out of my company and 20 out of some other company. We need support, but it is almost suicide to try to get it here as we are swept by machine gun fire and a constant barrage is on us. I have no one on my left and only a few on my right. I will hold." (First Lieutenant Clifton B. Cates, US Marine Corps, Soissons, 19 July 1918)
o rly?
http://blog.gsmarena.com/nvidia-launches-gtx-titan-a-powerful-graphic-card-priced-at-1000/
Even if that GTX Titan wasn't coming out, video card tech doesn't stop with a GPU release. eVGA, HIS, XFX and other companies are constantly evolving the tech around the GPUs and offering higher performance boards. In regards to your article, what they left out was that AMD said we can expect to see some new 7000-series GPUs released during the first half of the year.
Source: http://www.pcworld.com/article/2028408/amd-to-release-new-radeon-hd-8000-graphics-cards-in-2013.html
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
Just compare planetside 2 to planetside 1
Eq2 to EQ
Gw2 to gw1
Tsw to Ao
Etc...
It's possible that the hardware improvement that's been constantly driving sales since...what, thirty+ years ago...may be finally drawing to a close. Possibly, but not probable.
But more likely that it's just turned attention to telephones and pads now?
A bit early to start squawking doom and flying in circles.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
What do you use a PC for?
If you are only using it for surfing the web, or playing wow, then you wont notice differences. If you are using it for 3d animation, video editing or running a server then the advances are noticeable. The computer industry will always want more power and processing irregardless of what gamers in their bubbles believe.
The tools for game creation have improved massively over the last few years, the workflow efficiency just keeps getting better.
And fps are going up in detail but at the cost of FOV, not a good thing imo.
<Welcome to my world>
Disagree GAMING is the primary driver of technology improvements on the home pc. You don't need anything like as powerful pcs for business use, people went to the moon on something the equivelent of a zX81
Sure visual arts need good graphics power too, but without gamers they would be a very niche market and gpu would be very expensive.
Games are the primary driver of pc hardware improvements.
It is not the hardware holding the graphics back.... it is the "common" person keeping the graphics back.
Game developers want to make money... bottom line. '
So would you develop a game that 1% of the people could play and make it as shiny and pretty as you can?
Or would you rather make a game where 75% of the people could play, but have to scale back the graphics some?
The answer is the 75%... cause that is the bottom line... money.
If every person who played games had a smoking i7, 16 gigs of ram, with a top of the line vid card.....the games would be as detailed as they could be. At that point it would be back on the technology to develop better hardware.
You have to remember, 15 years ago we jumped leaps and bounds because computers will still small market... and people who had computers upgraded frequently. Nowadays, those same tech geeks upgrade, but they are only a fraction of the market.