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2013: The year of the last Mohicans
sportsfan
Member Posts: 431
WIth Blizzard publishing its subscription numbers today it is kind of odd that subscriptions these days have become an odd word in MMORPG land.
WOW - EVE and a few left overs in RIFT (8US servers coming from 55 or so) and that's about it I guess.
Even http://mmodata.net/ is no longer updating its pages anymore in the last year. What's the use since every one left the boxing ring of subscriptions.
EA didn't mention anything about them and as SW TOR turned into a free to play but pay for many things game, it is interesting to see how the last of the Mohicans will stand in the future.
Nevertheless a subscription based game is a gold mine, while the complete absence of hard $$ signs on cash shops says it all. We only see things like suspicious % growth in these F2P games and it is quite clear after seeing Zynga games hit the bottom of the barrel with its ... 80 million players and 800% stock crash, the on line industry is licking its wounds.
MMORPG's a dying breed...
Comments
The subscription model has taken a hit lately due to so many sub-based MMOs doing badly as a result of not having a specific target audience. Essentially they get greedy and try to appeal to everyone and ultimately satisfy no one. Rather than rethink their strategy and develop better games for specific player types though they instead just change the business model but continue to develop the same shallow games...
This whole B2P and F2P craze will die out after a while. Players will eventually realise that subscriptions were better as they guaranteed the devs had to work to keep you paying. Look at GW2, there has been very little post-launch content added to that game and the majority of it has been very poorly received... B2P means the devs can get lazy as they already have everyone's money.
F2P is still, in most cases, just a scam. The more games go this route the more people will finally work it out for themselves.
If sub games die out then that'll leave the market wide open for someone else to release a new sub-based game for the players unsatisfied with B2P and F2P. In other words, subs won't die out because a lot of MMO players would rather pay for quality.
"EVE is likely the best MMORPG that you've never really understood or played" - Kyleran
I can agree with the first two sentences somewhat, but then it all goes wrong from there. It would take a whole new thread to discuss the erroneous assertions in the rest of your post. Man, you're really lost.
I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been -Wayne Gretzky
There is zero evidence for that. In the past 3 years, F2P has grown its market share in revenue against P2P.
I think he meant the games will be there as F2P, but the only ones worth playing will all be subbed based. Case in point, it's already 75% true, most F2P games aren't worth playing even free as it was/is a trainwreck that never got fixed.
Currently Playing: ESO and FFXIV
Have played: You name it
If you mention rose tinted glasses, you better be referring to Mitch Hedberg.
I would count Zynga's crash as evidence that the F2P movement doesn't have legs.Not enough evidence to say the model is dead or dying, just enough to give me pause about the long term viability.In the past 3 years the MMO games have been pretty bad IMO. Going F2P up until recently has generally been seen as a "bad" thing.Most of the MMO games launched in the last 3 years have been forced to go F2P just to survive.
It could just be a fad.
It could become the only way to game.
Time will tell, but my old lady doesn't spend any money on Zynga. I know I don't spend any money in any F2P game.
So someone is paying our way.
The way people feel about taxes and welfare, I just can't see people supporting others gaming habits in the long term.
( Note to self-Don't say anything bad about Drizzt.)
An acerbic sense of humor is NOT allowed here.
Sure. "Worth playing" is subjective though. If you look at the numbers, tens of millions are playing F2P games.
Yes. I don't find any of the subscription-based games worth playing.
I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been -Wayne Gretzky
And i would say the growth of the F2P market (from 39% to 50% market share against p2p in the last 3 year) says otherwise. Total market data is obviously more relevant than a single company.
Microsoft Window 8 phone is selling badly .. does that mean that the smart phone market is a fad?
Currently Playing: ESO and FFXIV
Have played: You name it
If you mention rose tinted glasses, you better be referring to Mitch Hedberg.
That's because the majority of them are god awful games. People tend to not pay for shit quality entertainment. It would appear though that some will indulge if it's "free" for short periods of time and then shuffle on to the next one.
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb
They way industry robbed us with 3 month, $60 box cost games last year. I would rather pay a sub no box price.
9.99 per month. If your game is good, I will play and happily pay.
And the same time, more and more games are F2P, and F2P has grown its market share.
Short term growth does not equal long term viability. Just because the short term is trending one way does not mean that it cant change or even reverse.
Microsoft could release a new phone that totally redefines the entire smartphone model. (Unlikely I know, just as it is unlikely any new MMO we don't know about would come in and redefine the genre.)
They could then "set the price" as it were.Charge double what an Iphone charges. If it became the item to have to remain relevant in the sphere, then it would sell like hotcakes. Same for a new genre defining game like WoW was. If I remember correctly up until WoW came along most games charged 10 dollars a month. Now most have tried 15.
I'm not complaining mind you, I get to try a lot of games for free. (Most of them are awful.)
I just wonder how long the "whale" culture can last. I might be completely wrong. I have been before.
I once said rap music was a fad. LOL.
just fun to speculate.
( Note to self-Don't say anything bad about Drizzt.)
An acerbic sense of humor is NOT allowed here.
Sure .. short term growth != long term viability. But at least that is market wide data, not just one company.
And no one knows exactly what will happen in 5 year. But does anyone think that F2P is going away in 2013?
I don't agree at all. F2P and B2P gives players too much freedom to play multiple games that they couldn't afford before. And, the way the economy continues to tank, people will be prioritizing their entertainment options even more.
Yet the most populated MMO's and those generally regarded as sub based have higher ratings and better player retention. It goes both ways. F2P has massive jumps that usually drops off after a year or two. I have played several F2P games that ended up just as desolate a year or so later. Don't get me wrong there are some F2P gems out there, I am enjoying F2P Vanguard again despite being mostly gear locked on my original character. I'm enjoying my new druid, SoE did a decent job with the new F2P restrictions if you start from scratch.
Currently Playing: ESO and FFXIV
Have played: You name it
If you mention rose tinted glasses, you better be referring to Mitch Hedberg.
No one says otherwise. We are not talking about a single game. We are talking about the whole market. In fact, the nature of F2P is that players can game hop more.
The point is not whether a single F2P game will last longer, or more successful .. but that in totality they are taking the market away. In fact, i can see there will be even more F2P games produced, and each last a shorter period of time. Players will just, on average, play more games.
Someone is paying though. That is the thing. I'm not sure why, but someone is paying.
OR these companies are lying about the money they are making. It is sometimes hard to tell who is telling the truth.Even financial reports can be fudged and amended later. Companies hire a lot of lawyers for a reason.They push the rules just as far as legally possible.
Still highly unlikely. Someone is paying. I just can't quite put my finger on who or why.
( Note to self-Don't say anything bad about Drizzt.)
An acerbic sense of humor is NOT allowed here.
Probably the best post I have seen from you narius, no offense. Thanks for the explanation, and I agree with you
Currently Playing: ESO and FFXIV
Have played: You name it
If you mention rose tinted glasses, you better be referring to Mitch Hedberg.
Oh no, not going anywhere anytime soon.
Just wondering if the whole F2P movement can sustain long term. I also wonder what a new blockbuster game would do to the market.
You gotta wonder where all that rapid growth stops.
Gaming companies industry wide, save for a few, are not really doing all that well. They have a lot riding on the new console launches coming up.
( Note to self-Don't say anything bad about Drizzt.)
An acerbic sense of humor is NOT allowed here.
The whale pheonomenon is pretty well known. Usually only a small percentage of F2P players pay. And a even smaller percentage will pay a lot and make up for the rest of the free players.
It is not hard to believe. Let me use an example .. STO. I play it .. pretty good game and i am happy to play it for free. (I like Star Trek.)
But you can imagine some die-hard trekkies who would pay $$$ to get every last star ship, and uniform in the game. If they would spend thousand of dollars to go to convention, cos-play, or even model their home (http://www.sliceofscifi.com/2012/01/25/man-forced-to-dismantle-star-trek-living-room/), why wouldn't they spend a few hundred dollars in a game?
Yep. He does make another good point.
( Note to self-Don't say anything bad about Drizzt.)
An acerbic sense of humor is NOT allowed here.
It depends on what long term means? If you are talking about 5 year and out, it is really hard to predict. May be tablet is going to take over, and most games are $2 casual games. May be there is a new technology, and we jack our head into our entertainment, and your "cable" company will be charging a flat $200 per month.
Console/retail gaming has been declining .. may be the new gen console will bring another era of growth. May be people are sick of consoles, and the next gen will fail, and entertainment will shift from hard core gaming to something else.
I will admit i have no clue what long term will bring.
I think its more the P.T Barnum effect. "There's a sucker born every minute".
Being F2P just exposes the games to more suckers. :-)
I guess its working for now, and babies aren't gonna stop happening any time soon.
Then again there aren't very many circus around these days either.
( Note to self-Don't say anything bad about Drizzt.)
An acerbic sense of humor is NOT allowed here.