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NCSoft Earning call conference: GW2 xpac and China release in 2013

Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,828Member Uncommon

http://222.122.46.97/ct/ncsoft/20130205/ncsoft.html

So I've been listening to the conference call that can be found in the above link (Korean with english translation).

The main points regarding GW2:

2.9 millions box sales in 2012.

The lionshare of the box sales were acconted in 4Q12.

GW2 to be released in China some point this year.

Gw2 expansion to be released in 2013.

They declined to give any numbers for micro transactions (for all their games) only saying it is a large part of their revenue.

They expect GW2 to continue to be an important revenue source.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nothing particularly new, although it is good to have the rumour of GW2 Xpac in 2013 confirmed.

From my estimates, gems accounted for 20-50% of the total revenue generated by GW2 (~$150M) using revenue per box of $30 and $40.

So using those 2 values, the gem sales would be equivalente to the revenue 660K-1.6M $15 subs.would generate.

If the microtransactions remain flat that would mean $90M-$225M per year in cash shop revenues.

 

 

Currently playing: GW2
Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

«13

Comments

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Common
    great news, thank you
  • ZzadZzad Palma de MallorcaPosts: 1,316Member Uncommon

    Xpac for GW2 this year?!

    Count me in !!!!!    :D

    And that launch in China is going to sky-rocket sales!

    image

  • QSatuQSatu WarsawPosts: 1,735Member Uncommon
    I have my doubts. GW2 seems like a polar opposite of what Chinese like in their games.
  • greenreengreenreen Punchoo, AKPosts: 2,101Member Uncommon
    I think it's showing us that the micro-transaction usage in the game is increasing.

    3rd quarter = July, August, September were about 42,179,828 USD in sales
    4th quarter = October, November, December were about 109,507,821 USD in sales

    Since two million players out of 2.9M est. total were acquired in the third quarter, that means the money has been increasing while the sales of the game have decreased. Clearly the micro-transactions are being pushed better in the fourth quarter unless they are making more profit now on box sales. They had xmas behind sales in November and December but the box sales didn't meet their first airing which was also an inflated sales period. Keeping in mind too that the MOST money made on sales had to be on the first airing of sales, the moments when people had waited 5 years and could finally procure a digital copy. Customers often take the path of least resistance, I expect digital sales were high in that period. Those digital copies must have the most profit because they don't involve a reseller or much of a distribution fee at all if they don't offer packaging.

    Basically, August - Over 1 million sold
    http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2409224,00.asp

    September - Two million sold
    http://www.gamasutra.com/view/pressreleases/177635/Guild_Warsreg_2_Sales_Break_Two_Million_Units.php

    Third Quarter
    Averages 21.90 revenue per player @ 42,179,828 USD / 2,000,000

    Fourth Quarter
    Averages 37.76 revenue per player @ 109,507,821 USD / 2,900,000

    You might look at those numbers and say - about the same but look at it from the angle of box sales reduced in the fourth quarter.

    If you round out $20 for box sales. Then you see that the micro-transactions are kicking in and growing stronger.

    Third Quarter
    2,000,000 * 20 = 40,000,000 revenue from box sales
    42,179,828 - 40,000,000 = 2,179,828 micro-transaction revenue

    Fourth Quarter
    900,000 * 20 = 18,000,000 revenue from box sales
    109,507,821 - 18,000,000 = 91,507,821 micro-transaction revenue

    Unless they lied about box sales and called them out earlier than they happened, it does look to me like they are making more money despite less boxes being sold. Even if you believe there are still 3M people playing the game (which I can't after the changes to the manifesto), what we see is that they are shouldering more of the load for those that did leave because the calculations aren't including those that did jump ship who are definitely not contributing in micro-transactions. If I guesstimate that number high - someone will say - you are saying my game is dead. If I guesstimate low - someone will say - but I don't pay anything to play the game monthly. That one is a no win to start guessing population beyond sales released.
  • KarteliKarteli Providence, PAPosts: 2,646Member

    I hope they don't expect those kinds of initial sales for an expansion :D

     

    GW2 wasn't that great for an interactive MMORPG.  It had all the qualifications, but really lacked the social side.

     

    Some people like solo player MMORPGS.  Some don't.  That's the mix of people who bought this game (via hype).

     

    The expansion will sell far fewer than the vanilla launch.

    Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
    Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.

  • AerowynAerowyn BUZZARDS BAY, MAPosts: 7,928Member
    not very surprised with plans for xpac by end of this year.. with such a huge slew of new MMOs coming out by years end they will want something big to keep up with the competition.. will be looking forward to it:)

    I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg

  • jtcgsjtcgs New Port Richey, ILPosts: 1,777Member
    Originally posted by Karteli

    GW2 wasn't that great for an interactive MMORPG.  It had all the qualifications, but really lacked the social side.

     only for those that need a game to make them social...social people have no issues at all and my servers chat proves it every time I am logged in.

    But as you said, it brought in two kinds of players...to bad you got the catagories wrong.

    “I hope we shall crush...in its birth the aristocracy of our moneyed corporations, which dare already to challenge our government to a trial of strength and bid defiance to the laws of our country." ~Thomes Jefferson

  • AerowynAerowyn BUZZARDS BAY, MAPosts: 7,928Member
    Originally posted by jtcgs
    Originally posted by Karteli

    GW2 wasn't that great for an interactive MMORPG.  It had all the qualifications, but really lacked the social side.

     only for those that need a game to make them social...social people have no issues at all and my servers chat proves it every time I am logged in.

    But as you said, it brought in two kinds of players...to bad you got the catagories wrong.

    yea with my multiple guilds and people from these forums on top of my real life friends AND on top of WvW talking happens almost nonstop.. not only that it's one of the most friendly MMOs i have ever played in my life as far as people being respectfull and just overall helpfull.

    I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg

  • Zeus.CMZeus.CM ZagrebPosts: 1,788Member
    Originally posted by Aerowyn
    not very surprised with plans for xpac by end of this year.. with such a huge slew of new MMOs coming out by years end they will want something big to keep up with the competition.. will be looking forward to it:)

    I am, on the other hand, very surprised by this. I remember back in a day when GW2 was first announced, we all thought it would be released in 2010. After so much waiting, I learned to be patient, so having an expansion so early is hard to grasp, especially because I'm expecting that xpac will bring as much content as the original (that was the case with gw1).

  • eye_meye_m Notta Chance, ABPosts: 3,133Member Uncommon

    this is good news, I've been worried about content only coming out in monthly updates and I'm really excited to see what sorts of additions they might add in an expansion pack. I'm hoping for some newer character models for existing races and maybe a new race as well.

     

     

    All of my posts are either intelligent, thought provoking, funny, satirical, sarcastic or intentionally disrespectful. Take your pick.

    I get banned in the forums for games I love, so lets see if I do better in the forums for games I hate.

    I enjoy the serenity of not caring what your opinion is.

  • IsawaIsawa Middle 0 Nowhere, ORPosts: 1,051Member
    Originally posted by Karteli

    I hope they don't expect those kinds of initial sales for an expansion :D

    ...

    The expansion will sell far fewer than the vanilla launch.

    It is a given that an expansion will always sell fewer than the original. Because there will be at least one person who does not buy it lol. Common sense.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,828Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by greenreen
    I think it's showing us that the micro-transaction usage in the game is increasing.

    3rd quarter = July, August, September were about 42,179,828 USD in sales
    4th quarter = October, November, December were about 109,507,821 USD in sales

    Since two million players out of 2.9M est. total were acquired in the third quarter, that means the money has been increasing while the sales of the game have decreased. Clearly the micro-transactions are being pushed better in the fourth quarter unless they are making more profit now on box sales. They had xmas behind sales in November and December but the box sales didn't meet their first airing which was also an inflated sales period. Keeping in mind too that the MOST money made on sales had to be on the first airing of sales, the moments when people had waited 5 years and could finally procure a digital copy. Customers often take the path of least resistance, I expect digital sales were high in that period. Those digital copies must have the most profit because they don't involve a reseller or much of a distribution fee at all if they don't offer packaging.

    Basically, August - Over 1 million sold
    http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2409224,00.asp

    September - Two million sold
    http://www.gamasutra.com/view/pressreleases/177635/Guild_Warsreg_2_Sales_Break_Two_Million_Units.php

    Third Quarter
    Averages 21.90 revenue per player @ 42,179,828 USD / 2,000,000

    Fourth Quarter
    Averages 37.76 revenue per player @ 109,507,821 USD / 2,900,000

    You might look at those numbers and say - about the same but look at it from the angle of box sales reduced in the fourth quarter.

    If you round out $20 for box sales. Then you see that the micro-transactions are kicking in and growing stronger.

    Third Quarter
    2,000,000 * 20 = 40,000,000 revenue from box sales
    42,179,828 - 40,000,000 = 2,179,828 micro-transaction revenue

    Fourth Quarter
    900,000 * 20 = 18,000,000 revenue from box sales
    109,507,821 - 18,000,000 = 91,507,821 micro-transaction revenue

    Unless they lied about box sales and called them out earlier than they happened, it does look to me like they are making more money despite less boxes being sold. Even if you believe there are still 3M people playing the game (which I can't after the changes to the manifesto), what we see is that they are shouldering more of the load for those that did leave because the calculations aren't including those that did jump ship who are definitely not contributing in micro-transactions. If I guesstimate that number high - someone will say - you are saying my game is dead. If I guesstimate low - someone will say - but I don't pay anything to play the game monthly. That one is a no win to start guessing population beyond sales released.

    Your deductions are based on false assumptions.

    As they stated on the report call the lion share of the box sales were accounted in the 4Q12.

    Also, the digital sales from Anet site would bring closer to $48 a box.

    The 3Q12 was only 700K-1M boxes.

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • mistersalty1mistersalty1 South Windsor, CTPosts: 26Member
    Originally posted by Eluldor
    Originally posted by Karteli

    I hope they don't expect those kinds of initial sales for an expansion :D

    ...

    The expansion will sell far fewer than the vanilla launch.

    It is a given that an expansion will always sell fewer than the original. Because there will be at least one person who does not buy it lol. Common sense.

    Its also a given that this expansion will sell fewer because half the people who bought the game initially no longer play.

  • fivorothfivoroth LondonPosts: 3,665Member Uncommon
    Expansions are cool. I would really like to see a new character class(es) too ::D

    Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.

  • frestonfreston orensePosts: 521Member
    Omg. a new expansion? I had just started exploring the rift expansion and pandaria, and i bought them months ago. I may have to get a divorce.
  • mikahrmikahr ZagrebPosts: 1,066Member
    Originally posted by mistersalty1

    Its also a given that this expansion will sell fewer because half the people who bought the game initially no longer play.

    Not necessarily, a lot of people come back to check big updates, especially expansions, just look at WoW, LOTRO...

  • fiontarfiontar Dana, MAPosts: 3,719Member
    Originally posted by Karteli

    I hope they don't expect those kinds of initial sales for an expansion :D

     

    GW2 wasn't that great for an interactive MMORPG.  It had all the qualifications, but really lacked the social side.

     

    Some people like solo player MMORPGS.  Some don't.  That's the mix of people who bought this game (via hype).

     

    The expansion will sell far fewer than the vanilla launch.

    It's one of the best MMOs ever and I can tell you that everyone I play with agrees that while the game is fun solo, it's a lot more fun with a group of friends/guildmates. It's actually not only very fun to play with a group, but the game gets major kudos for eliminating most of the barriers to friends/guildmates playing together. Level scaling works, even better since the January patch.

    My latest character is a level 63 Warrior and a huge portion of the time I've spent leveling so far has been playing with friends in sub-level 30 zones. Hours played to get to 63 is pretty close to being in line with my normal leveling speed. No other MMO I'm aware of makes it so easy, balanced and rewarding for players of all different levels to play together.

    Other than for dungeons, the game doesn't force grouping. However, that doesn't mean it's not fun/challenging/rewarding for people who play in groups, because it is a fun group game! I think people just need to stop blaming a lack of forced grouping for why they don't actually group in a game. You should group because you like playing with others and you should want to group with people who also like playing with others. Join a good guild. Bring RL friends or make new one, people who actually enjoy playing together.

    Grouping in GW2 is a blast, but it's up to you to assemble a group of people who enjoy playing together.

    Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
    image

  • vmopedvmoped Athens, GAPosts: 1,708Member
    Originally posted by fiontar

    ...Grouping in GW2 is a blast, but it's up to you to assemble a group of people who enjoy playing together.

     Be careful mate, from my experience alot of people here in the states are not the best at personal responsibility! (I think they find complaining much easier).  I agree with ya though.  I find the game has all the social tools you need.  Imagination and ingenuity serve to fill the gaps from my experience!

    Cheers!

    MMO Vet since AOL Neverwinter Nights circa 1992. My MMO beat up your MMO. =S

  • fiontarfiontar Dana, MAPosts: 3,719Member
    Originally posted by mikahr
    Originally posted by mistersalty1

    Its also a given that this expansion will sell fewer because half the people who bought the game initially no longer play.

    Not necessarily, a lot of people come back to check big updates, especially expansions, just look at WoW, LOTRO...

    MMOs tend to sell fewer expansion than total copies of the base game. No game is going to have 100% retention/recall driving expansion sales. However, if Arenanet follows the model used with GW1, we can probably expect that in addition to boxes that only include a code for the added expansion content for existing players, they will also bundle the original game, with the expansion, at an attractive price. This helped make GW1 one of the biggest selling PC game franchises and could boost expansion driven sales considerably.

    If the rate of growth continues to outstrip the rate of player drift, (I say drift, rather than loss, because with the B2P model, people can and do drift in and out of the game, rather than completely quiting), then the expansion, in it's first six months, could sell close to 3 million copies, or more, as by the time the expansion goes on sale, there could have been a couple million more box sales of the original GW2.

    Also, the B2P model should allow the game to pull in an even higher percentage of people who "left, but came back to check out the expansion" than is seen for a typical MMO.

    Also, it's good that gem store revenue seems to be very healthy. If they continue to make incrimental improvements to value on some offerings, while adding more worth while items and services to the store, average revenue per player could continue to increase. (I will admit that I think that Arenanet has been a bit too slow to roll out new gem store content. It's hard to tell if they are just being overly cautious, or if they just don't have enough people working on things like skins. If they can get more productive on new releases for the store, revenues could really increase).

    Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
    image

  • kabitoshinkabitoshin Posts: 758Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Karteli

    I hope they don't expect those kinds of initial sales for an expansion :D

     

    GW2 wasn't that great for an interactive MMORPG.  It had all the qualifications, but really lacked the social side.

     

    Some people like solo player MMORPGS.  Some don't.  That's the mix of people who bought this game (via hype).

     

    The expansion will sell far fewer than the vanilla launch.

    It's not the games fault for people being unsocial, It's the generation of MMO players these days. People don't want to group up with some random people when you can just zerg events. 

  • Jean-Luc_PicardJean-Luc_Picard La BarrePosts: 3,549Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by jtcgs
    Originally posted by Karteli

    GW2 wasn't that great for an interactive MMORPG.  It had all the qualifications, but really lacked the social side.

     only for those that need a game to make them social...social people have no issues at all and my servers chat proves it every time I am logged in.

    But as you said, it brought in two kinds of players...to bad you got the catagories wrong.

    I couldn't have said it better.

    For those who need to be forced into raids for 3+ hours session 3+ nights a week and call that "being social", for sure, GW2 isn't the right game. For everybody else, normal people who actually manage to socialize with others without being forced to by the game mechanics, and who don't call bashing mobs for 3+ hours "socializing" either, it's just fine.

    Can't wait for that expansion, I will be among the first in line to buy it or even pre-order it.

    Playing now: WoW, Landmark, GW2, The Crew, SotA

    Top 3 MMORPGs played: UO, AC1 and WoW

    Honorable mentions: AO, LotRO, SW:TOR and GW2.

    ----------------

    "The ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent" - Qui-gon Jinn. After many years of reading Internet forums, there's no doubt that neither does the ability to write.
    So if you notice that I'm no longer answering your nonsense, stop trying... because you just joined my block list.

  • mikahrmikahr ZagrebPosts: 1,066Member
    Originally posted by jtcgs
    Originally posted by Karteli

    GW2 wasn't that great for an interactive MMORPG.  It had all the qualifications, but really lacked the social side.

     only for those that need a game to make them social...social people have no issues at all and my servers chat proves it every time I am logged in.

    But as you said, it brought in two kinds of players...to bad you got the catagories wrong.

    I never understood this need for people to require game "to make them social"

    I never had any problem being social in games they proclaim as "solo online MMOs"

    Really start to surface its not games fault but those people fault.

    Its pretty much obvious MMOs are not for them and they should move to single player games.

    Originally posted by kabitoshin
    It's not the games fault for people being unsocial, It's the generation of MMO players these days. People don't want to group up with some random people when you can just zerg events.

    people want to group, they are just not forced to group with you. Nothing wrong with game or other people. Start to look for cause  somewhere else.

  • greenreengreenreen Punchoo, AKPosts: 2,101Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by greenreen
    I think it's showing us that the micro-transaction usage in the game is increasing.

    3rd quarter = July, August, September were about 42,179,828 USD in sales
    4th quarter = October, November, December were about 109,507,821 USD in sales

    Since two million players out of 2.9M est. total were acquired in the third quarter, that means the money has been increasing while the sales of the game have decreased. Clearly the micro-transactions are being pushed better in the fourth quarter unless they are making more profit now on box sales. They had xmas behind sales in November and December but the box sales didn't meet their first airing which was also an inflated sales period. Keeping in mind too that the MOST money made on sales had to be on the first airing of sales, the moments when people had waited 5 years and could finally procure a digital copy. Customers often take the path of least resistance, I expect digital sales were high in that period. Those digital copies must have the most profit because they don't involve a reseller or much of a distribution fee at all if they don't offer packaging.

    Basically, August - Over 1 million sold
    http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2409224,00.asp

    September - Two million sold
    http://www.gamasutra.com/view/pressreleases/177635/Guild_Warsreg_2_Sales_Break_Two_Million_Units.php

    Third Quarter
    Averages 21.90 revenue per player @ 42,179,828 USD / 2,000,000

    Fourth Quarter
    Averages 37.76 revenue per player @ 109,507,821 USD / 2,900,000

    You might look at those numbers and say - about the same but look at it from the angle of box sales reduced in the fourth quarter.

    If you round out $20 for box sales. Then you see that the micro-transactions are kicking in and growing stronger.

    Third Quarter
    2,000,000 * 20 = 40,000,000 revenue from box sales
    42,179,828 - 40,000,000 = 2,179,828 micro-transaction revenue

    Fourth Quarter
    900,000 * 20 = 18,000,000 revenue from box sales
    109,507,821 - 18,000,000 = 91,507,821 micro-transaction revenue

    Unless they lied about box sales and called them out earlier than they happened, it does look to me like they are making more money despite less boxes being sold. Even if you believe there are still 3M people playing the game (which I can't after the changes to the manifesto), what we see is that they are shouldering more of the load for those that did leave because the calculations aren't including those that did jump ship who are definitely not contributing in micro-transactions. If I guesstimate that number high - someone will say - you are saying my game is dead. If I guesstimate low - someone will say - but I don't pay anything to play the game monthly. That one is a no win to start guessing population beyond sales released.

    Your deductions are based on false assumptions.

    As they stated on the report call the lion share of the box sales were accounted in the 4Q12.

    Also, the digital sales from Anet site would bring closer to $48 a box.

    The 3Q12 was only 700K-1M boxes.

    There are no false assumptions. Those were their press releases that reported sales throughout the year. You must think they lied then to the public. I didn't link them for nothing. Did you even follow the links. If you have a problem with what they said then it's THEM you need to talk to. If it doesn't match with what they told their investors, again, it was their words. I didn't make any assumptions that weren't from the lips of Arenanet/Nexon. The only thing I rounded out was a box sale to show someone the spike in numbers because there are no charts on the site. That's how you can see the slope.

    I sure would like to know how you came up with 20-50% spent on cash shop with the numbers I showed. You didn't take into account different prices and selling places for boxes, you didn't take into account collector's editions, deluxe editions. All those things would take money away from the micro-transaction sales. I think I was being very generous saying only 20 for box sales after production cost/ distribution and retailer profit. The original way I calculated it, there was very little spent if anything on micro-transactions but you didn't want to hear that so I was generous to your wants. The part I didn't calculate and post until now is the real guesstimate driven items but once again - IT WAS THEIR PRESS RELEASE THAT SAID THEY HAD SOLD ONE MILLION IN THIRD QUARTER for early access. http://www.guildwarsinsider.com/pre-order-figures-slip/

    This was the way I originally started my calculations but found it too "estimatey" and since your topic was micro-transactions, it needed to show those. To be honest with you, I think digital sales should be much higher than box sales but I can't make the numbers work because the profit margin is too high on digital.

    1,000,000 paid for early access
    Collector's edition = 149.99
    Deluxe Edition = 79.99
    Digital Download = 59.99
    http://grvgaming.com/2012/08/guild-wars-2-collectors-edition/
    - guesstimate Collector's edition = 149.99 - 40 goods/packaging - 20 retailer = 89.99
    - guesstimate Box price = 59.99 - 20 retailer/packaging = 39.99
    - estimating 0.5% paid for collector's edition = 5,000 sold
    - estimating 0.5% paid for deluxe edition = 5,000 sold
    - estimating 40% paid for digital download = 400,000 sold
    - estimating 59% paid for a box = 590,000 sold
    = 5,000 * 89.99 = 449,950
    = 5,000 * 79.99 = 399,950
    = 400,000 * 59.99 = 23,996,000
    = 590,000 * 39.99 = 23,594,100
    == 48,440,000 for 1,000,000 "Early Access"

    Why do I even start talking in GW2 topics, the people just don't make sense. That's enough explaining.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,828Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by greenreen
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by greenreen
    I think it's showing us that the micro-transaction usage in the game is increasing.

    3rd quarter = July, August, September were about 42,179,828 USD in sales
    4th quarter = October, November, December were about 109,507,821 USD in sales

    Since two million players out of 2.9M est. total were acquired in the third quarter, that means the money has been increasing while the sales of the game have decreased. Clearly the micro-transactions are being pushed better in the fourth quarter unless they are making more profit now on box sales. They had xmas behind sales in November and December but the box sales didn't meet their first airing which was also an inflated sales period. Keeping in mind too that the MOST money made on sales had to be on the first airing of sales, the moments when people had waited 5 years and could finally procure a digital copy. Customers often take the path of least resistance, I expect digital sales were high in that period. Those digital copies must have the most profit because they don't involve a reseller or much of a distribution fee at all if they don't offer packaging.

    Basically, August - Over 1 million sold
    http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2409224,00.asp

    September - Two million sold
    http://www.gamasutra.com/view/pressreleases/177635/Guild_Warsreg_2_Sales_Break_Two_Million_Units.php

    Third Quarter
    Averages 21.90 revenue per player @ 42,179,828 USD / 2,000,000

    Fourth Quarter
    Averages 37.76 revenue per player @ 109,507,821 USD / 2,900,000

    You might look at those numbers and say - about the same but look at it from the angle of box sales reduced in the fourth quarter.

    If you round out $20 for box sales. Then you see that the micro-transactions are kicking in and growing stronger.

    Third Quarter
    2,000,000 * 20 = 40,000,000 revenue from box sales
    42,179,828 - 40,000,000 = 2,179,828 micro-transaction revenue

    Fourth Quarter
    900,000 * 20 = 18,000,000 revenue from box sales
    109,507,821 - 18,000,000 = 91,507,821 micro-transaction revenue

    Unless they lied about box sales and called them out earlier than they happened, it does look to me like they are making more money despite less boxes being sold. Even if you believe there are still 3M people playing the game (which I can't after the changes to the manifesto), what we see is that they are shouldering more of the load for those that did leave because the calculations aren't including those that did jump ship who are definitely not contributing in micro-transactions. If I guesstimate that number high - someone will say - you are saying my game is dead. If I guesstimate low - someone will say - but I don't pay anything to play the game monthly. That one is a no win to start guessing population beyond sales released.

    Your deductions are based on false assumptions.

    As they stated on the report call the lion share of the box sales were accounted in the 4Q12.

    Also, the digital sales from Anet site would bring closer to $48 a box.

    The 3Q12 was only 700K-1M boxes.

    There are no false assumptions. Those were their press releases that reported sales throughout the year. You must think they lied then to the public. I didn't link them for nothing. Did you even follow the links. If you have a problem with what they said then it's THEM you need to talk to. 

     

    Lets see.

    I've linked to the damn financial report call.

    They sold 2 millions in beggining of september 2012 but the money ("lion share" of it) only shows up in 4Q12 financial report..

    NCSoft own words.

    No conflicting information.

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • IcewhiteIcewhite Elmhurst, ILPosts: 6,403Member
    Originally posted by Zzad

    And that launch in China is going to sky-rocket sales!

    It will feel good to hear the world to revert to the subs arguments tellng us how China doesn't count again.

    I think Blizzard confused gamers (essentially simple creatures) with "China totally counts". Because up to that point, EQ fans had been telling us it didn't.

    Still, GW2's got to be a huge disappointment to fans of the Old Tyme Subs Argument. "How will we handle this one, we need mmogcharts and chit, oh noes!"

    We might have to compare...incomes?? How will we handle currency conversion rates? We can only argue once per quarter?

    Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

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