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XFire - As MMO population estimation tool

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  • SukiyakiSukiyaki GreenwichPosts: 1,398Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Camaro68

    XFire got a little more interesting now that Anet claims GW2 sold 3 million copies.

    It says GW2 has 3255 players on per day.  Is that an average?  I don't know how they arrive at that number.

    For SWTOR it shows 1488 players per day.

     

    Either way it looks like GW2 players have left in droves or SWTOR has more players than alot of people think.

    Maybe ToR just turned F2P recently (barely over 1month ago ) while GW2 does not even have a regular trial yet, neither free nor by invitation, neither a cheap entry level price like i.e. WoW or Rift at 5$ or any F2P game and those first two factors obviously inflate SWToRs activity (SWToR was below 700 before F2P transition, would be  below ~600 now at previous rate and declines faster than GW2 due to F2P rush fading off), while the later reduces GW2's activity compared to any low entry level title like SWTOR, leave alone xfire could as usual just be far off from reality because its hard to believe SWToR has almost a third or at least much more than a quarter of WoWs playerpase even after it turned F2P, but hey must be too much input at once forcing to admit too many baseless assumptions made during the "calculations".

    Lets better ignore all that and pretend its irrelevant if anyone asks.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,800Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Sukiyaki
    Originally posted by Camaro68

    XFire got a little more interesting now that Anet claims GW2 sold 3 million copies.

    It says GW2 has 3255 players on per day.  Is that an average?  I don't know how they arrive at that number.

    For SWTOR it shows 1488 players per day.

     

    Either way it looks like GW2 players have left in droves or SWTOR has more players than alot of people think.

    Maybe ToR just turned F2P recently (barely over 1month ago ) while GW2 does not even have a regular trial yet, neither free nor by invitation, neither a cheap entry level price like i.e. WoW or Rift at 5$ or any F2P game and those first two factors obviously inflate SWToRs activity (SWToR was below 700 before F2P transition, would be  below ~600 now at previous rate and declines faster than GW2 due to F2P rush fading off), while the later reduces GW2's activity compared to any low entry level title like SWTOR, leave alone xfire could as usual just be far off from reality because its hard to believe SWToR has almost a third or at least much more than a quarter of WoWs playerpase even after it turned F2P, but hey must be too much input at once forcing to admit too many baseless assumptions made during the "calculations".

    Lets better ignore all that and pretend its irrelevant if anyone asks.

    GW2 revenue also imcreased from 3Q12 to 4Q12 from some $40M to $110M.

    Sure, 3Q12 for GW2 was a few days in August and September, but by the beggining of September they had done 2Million of their 2012 3Million box sales.

    GW2 seems to have at least some high gem shop usage which would counter players leaving in droves - either that or there are thousands spending hundreds every month.

    Without the profile of XFire users and how they compare to each individual game population, it will never be a precise tool to estimate total population.

     

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,800Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Camaro68
    Originally posted by Nadia
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    I have a question.

    Which one of the following games is dying?

    image

    image

    image

    image

    image

    Now question number 2.

    WoW in January 2012 had 90K hours played.

    Now WoW in January 2013 has 25K hours played.

    So should we expect a loss of 2.5M is subs soon (60% of the 4M rumoured west subs)?

    If not, does that mean XFire users are shrinking?

    Are launch and special events/patchs peaks a good starting point to measure population decline or rise?

     

    By the way large/good enough aren't characteristics of a random population.

    Polling 1000 male gamers if they think female characters are oversexualized in games will be no different than polling 10000 male gamers, when the objective is what do gamers think about it.

    this came from a different thread but its better discussing here - esp Xfire as a population tool

    if you click on the charts, they enlarge

     

    regarding #2

    WoW in January 2012 had 90K hours played.

    Now WoW in January 2013 has 25K hours played.

    WOW claimed 10.2m in Q1 2012, lost some in summer, and was back up to 10 million in November 2012

    http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/120552-World-of-Warcraft-Subscriptions-Rise-to-10-Million

     

    for me, #2 show the flaws of Xfire as a population tool

     

    That's on xfire.  The 5.0.4 patch changed the WoW executable and dx renderer.  I think the only way to get xfire to work now is to move the wow exe. around and change the renderer.

    Even if that is true (and I believe a XFire patch fixed that), WoW was around 70K hours/10K players after the release of MOP and is now back to 20-25K hours and 5K players.

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • boxsndboxsnd Kraxton, ARPosts: 438Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by Sukiyaki
    Originally posted by Camaro68

    XFire got a little more interesting now that Anet claims GW2 sold 3 million copies.

    It says GW2 has 3255 players on per day.  Is that an average?  I don't know how they arrive at that number.

    For SWTOR it shows 1488 players per day.

     

    Either way it looks like GW2 players have left in droves or SWTOR has more players than alot of people think.

    Maybe ToR just turned F2P recently (barely over 1month ago ) while GW2 does not even have a regular trial yet, neither free nor by invitation, neither a cheap entry level price like i.e. WoW or Rift at 5$ or any F2P game and those first two factors obviously inflate SWToRs activity (SWToR was below 700 before F2P transition, would be  below ~600 now at previous rate and declines faster than GW2 due to F2P rush fading off), while the later reduces GW2's activity compared to any low entry level title like SWTOR, leave alone xfire could as usual just be far off from reality because its hard to believe SWToR has almost a third or at least much more than a quarter of WoWs playerpase even after it turned F2P, but hey must be too much input at once forcing to admit too many baseless assumptions made during the "calculations".

    Lets better ignore all that and pretend its irrelevant if anyone asks.

    GW2 revenue also imcreased from 3Q12 to 4Q12 from some $40M to $110M.

    Sure, 3Q12 for GW2 was a few days in August and September, but by the beggining of September they had done 2Million of their 2012 3Million box sales.

    GW2 seems to have at least some high gem shop usage which would counter players leaving in droves - either that or there are thousands spending hundreds every month.

    Without the profile of XFire users and how they compare to each individual game population, it will never be a precise tool to estimate total population.

     

    The next report will be more interesting since we can compare 2 full quarters. If it keeps growing GW2 is on the right track. If revenue drops Anet is in trouble.

    DAoC - Excalibur & Camlann

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,800Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by Sukiyaki
    Originally posted by Camaro68

    XFire got a little more interesting now that Anet claims GW2 sold 3 million copies.

    It says GW2 has 3255 players on per day.  Is that an average?  I don't know how they arrive at that number.

    For SWTOR it shows 1488 players per day.

     

    Either way it looks like GW2 players have left in droves or SWTOR has more players than alot of people think.

    Maybe ToR just turned F2P recently (barely over 1month ago ) while GW2 does not even have a regular trial yet, neither free nor by invitation, neither a cheap entry level price like i.e. WoW or Rift at 5$ or any F2P game and those first two factors obviously inflate SWToRs activity (SWToR was below 700 before F2P transition, would be  below ~600 now at previous rate and declines faster than GW2 due to F2P rush fading off), while the later reduces GW2's activity compared to any low entry level title like SWTOR, leave alone xfire could as usual just be far off from reality because its hard to believe SWToR has almost a third or at least much more than a quarter of WoWs playerpase even after it turned F2P, but hey must be too much input at once forcing to admit too many baseless assumptions made during the "calculations".

    Lets better ignore all that and pretend its irrelevant if anyone asks.

    GW2 revenue also imcreased from 3Q12 to 4Q12 from some $40M to $110M.

    Sure, 3Q12 for GW2 was a few days in August and September, but by the beggining of September they had done 2Million of their 2012 3Million box sales.

    GW2 seems to have at least some high gem shop usage which would counter players leaving in droves - either that or there are thousands spending hundreds every month.

    Without the profile of XFire users and how they compare to each individual game population, it will never be a precise tool to estimate total population.

     

    The next report will be more interesting since we can compare 2 full quarters. If it keeps growing GW2 is on the right track. If revenue drops Anet is in trouble.

    Last quarter the story was "next quarter without the hype sales will be the real test".

    Anet won't be in trouble - with $150M they at least doubled and probably tripled or quadrupled the investment in GW2.

    Most of their team already moved to the xpac - whatever they make is pure profit.

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • madazzmadazz A town, ONPosts: 1,564Member Uncommon

    Is there a way to get this removed as a sticky? It's a dead topic. It's just taking up space on the first page! I figure if someone can ask for it to be stickied, we can ask for it to be un-stickied!

     

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    TERA just passed SW:TOR to be the third most popular MMO after WoW and GW 2. I guess their F2P relaunch worked.
  • catlanacatlana Houston, TXPosts: 1,677Member
    Originally posted by Yamota
    TERA just passed SW:TOR to be the third most popular MMO after WoW and GW 2. I guess their F2P relaunch worked.

    SWToR passed them back up. However, TERA's f2p has brought them a large number of new players. Hopefully, TERA is doing well with the f2p revenue as well.

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    Originally posted by catlana
    Originally posted by Yamota
    TERA just passed SW:TOR to be the third most popular MMO after WoW and GW 2. I guess their F2P relaunch worked.

    SWToR passed them back up. However, TERA's f2p has brought them a large number of new players. Hopefully, TERA is doing well with the f2p revenue as well.

    TERA was doing well but it seem to have gone back down. However there seems to be two Tera's on XFire now. TERA Rising and TERA: Exiled Realm of Arborea, so not sure what is going on there.

    SW:TOR seems to be clinging on though, have around half the playerbase of Guild Wars 2, which has half the playerbase of WoW. If WoW has 4 million players in the West, that would give GW 2 around 2 million, SW:TOR 1 million, and Tera 500k. Sounds pretty reasonable.

    On related news, Defiance is way, way down with only 21 players per day. So it does not seem to be doing well at all, even though the Defiance PR team boasted of 1 million registered accounts. Observe that they did not say 1 million sold copies.

  • madazzmadazz A town, ONPosts: 1,564Member Uncommon

    In more news regarding how fail using xfire data is in estimating population, a month or so ago a team using primarily xfire data made a bold and later proven falst statement that Dota2 had a higher population thatn League of Legends. They were so far off that even League of Legends lowest activity server was still ahead of the peak population record that dota holds.

     

    http://www.pcgamer.com/2013/04/11/dota-2-most-played-report-challenged-by-riot-we-investigate/

     

    In the article there is a link in the first paragraph which leads to this interesting tidbit

    "Update: Riot have questioned DFC’s findings, telling Games Industry that League of Legends sees “over 500,000 peak concurrent players every day on just the EU West shard.” Note that Dota 2′s highest ever concurrent player count, according to SteamGraph, is 325,897 users worldwide."

    So yeah, screw xfire. Its totally bogus and cannot follow a trend.

  • botrytisbotrytis In Flux, MIPosts: 2,567Member
    Originally posted by boxsnd
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by Sukiyaki
    Originally posted by Camaro68

    XFire got a little more interesting now that Anet claims GW2 sold 3 million copies.

    It says GW2 has 3255 players on per day.  Is that an average?  I don't know how they arrive at that number.

    For SWTOR it shows 1488 players per day.

     

    Either way it looks like GW2 players have left in droves or SWTOR has more players than alot of people think.

    Maybe ToR just turned F2P recently (barely over 1month ago ) while GW2 does not even have a regular trial yet, neither free nor by invitation, neither a cheap entry level price like i.e. WoW or Rift at 5$ or any F2P game and those first two factors obviously inflate SWToRs activity (SWToR was below 700 before F2P transition, would be  below ~600 now at previous rate and declines faster than GW2 due to F2P rush fading off), while the later reduces GW2's activity compared to any low entry level title like SWTOR, leave alone xfire could as usual just be far off from reality because its hard to believe SWToR has almost a third or at least much more than a quarter of WoWs playerpase even after it turned F2P, but hey must be too much input at once forcing to admit too many baseless assumptions made during the "calculations".

    Lets better ignore all that and pretend its irrelevant if anyone asks.

    GW2 revenue also imcreased from 3Q12 to 4Q12 from some $40M to $110M.

    Sure, 3Q12 for GW2 was a few days in August and September, but by the beggining of September they had done 2Million of their 2012 3Million box sales.

    GW2 seems to have at least some high gem shop usage which would counter players leaving in droves - either that or there are thousands spending hundreds every month.

    Without the profile of XFire users and how they compare to each individual game population, it will never be a precise tool to estimate total population.

     

    The next report will be more interesting since we can compare 2 full quarters. If it keeps growing GW2 is on the right track. If revenue drops Anet is in trouble.

    A.Net is not in trouble. There have been reposrts in the industry that other games are planning to use A.Net's streaming system since it patches faster than almost any game out there.

     

    BLAH, BLAH, BLAH - people said that with GW1 also. Didn't happen then, won't happen now.

    image

    "In 50 years, when I talk to my grandchildren about these days, I'll make sure to mention what an accomplished MMO player I was. They are going to be so proud ..."
    by Naqaj - 7/17/2013 MMORPG.com forum

  • OzmodanOzmodan Hilliard, OHPosts: 7,181Member Uncommon
    This entire conversation is quite silly.  The only people who use XFire are console gamers and many of  those generally don't play MMO's.  So any statistics derived from such are bogus.  Means zilch when the vast majority of players do not use it!
  • waynejr2waynejr2 West Toluca Lake, CAPosts: 4,471Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Ozmodan
    This entire conversation is quite silly.  The only people who use XFire are console gamers and many of  those generally don't play MMO's.  So any statistics derived from such are bogus.  Means zilch when the vast majority of players do not use it!

     So if you look at a chart for a game about the time of release, you notice a massive spike in population on release day.  You would tell us that information is bogus.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by waynejr2
    Originally posted by Ozmodan This entire conversation is quite silly.  The only people who use XFire are console gamers and many of  those generally don't play MMO's.  So any statistics derived from such are bogus.  Means zilch when the vast majority of players do not use it!
     So if you look at a chart for a game about the time of release, you notice a massive spike in population on release day.  You would tell us that information is bogus.


    You could say "there's a big spike in sales", but that doesn't tell you how many people are playing the game. It certainly doesn't tell you how many people bought the game. The only thing you can compare XFire numbers to is XFire.

    For instance, if the XFire population of a game drops 80%, does that mean the overall game's population drops 80%? No. Look at SWToR's numbers. Look at any MMO post release for that matter. In order for there to be a comparable drop in actual game numbers, the games would have to start with double or triple the number of players they actually start with.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • furbansfurbans Tinbucktwo, IAPosts: 965Member
    The only thing XFire can estimate is trends n thats bout it, at least in the NA.  I would assume that it might also show trends in the EU but don't know if they have a different service for that stuff and don't think that Asia or other parts of the world use XFire.
  • Slappy1Slappy1 columbus, OHPosts: 458Member

    The only thing Xfire can really do is show a trend in hours played.When a game is launched/soft launched,you will see a spike.From that point you can expect the hours played to decrease by 60%-80% over the next 3-4 month's or so.From the 3-4 month mark you see many spikes and maybe a slow decrease.The spikes are usually due to content releases or a free weekend.

    You can see variables over time though,such as quicker decline in hours,or maybe a game goes ftp and then you see a steady rise,Followed by another steady decline.

    It's not exact by any means,but you can see trend over time and see a general health for a game compared to other's.

    Some day I'm going to put a sword through your eye and out the back of your skull!

    Arya Stark

  • SaunZSaunZ Las Vegas, NVPosts: 159Member

    exact game populations can be derived from using the XFire database; humans just haven't discovered the correct algorithm to do so.

     

    Sz

    :o)

  • waynejr2waynejr2 West Toluca Lake, CAPosts: 4,471Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by waynejr2

    Originally posted by Ozmodan This entire conversation is quite silly.  The only people who use XFire are console gamers and many of  those generally don't play MMO's.  So any statistics derived from such are bogus.  Means zilch when the vast majority of players do not use it!
     So if you look at a chart for a game about the time of release, you notice a massive spike in population on release day.  You would tell us that information is bogus.

    You could say "there's a big spike in sales", but that doesn't tell you how many people are playing the game. It certainly doesn't tell you how many people bought the game. The only thing you can compare XFire numbers to is XFire.

    For instance, if the XFire population of a game drops 80%, does that mean the overall game's population drops 80%? No. Look at SWToR's numbers. Look at any MMO post release for that matter. In order for there to be a comparable drop in actual game numbers, the games would have to start with double or triple the number of players they actually start with.

     

     The F-ing point is that it has meaning. 

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by waynejr2
    Originally posted by lizardbones   Originally posted by waynejr2 Originally posted by Ozmodan This entire conversation is quite silly.  The only people who use XFire are console gamers and many of  those generally don't play MMO's.  So any statistics derived from such are bogus.  Means zilch when the vast majority of players do not use it!
     So if you look at a chart for a game about the time of release, you notice a massive spike in population on release day.  You would tell us that information is bogus.
    You could say "there's a big spike in sales", but that doesn't tell you how many people are playing the game. It certainly doesn't tell you how many people bought the game. The only thing you can compare XFire numbers to is XFire. For instance, if the XFire population of a game drops 80%, does that mean the overall game's population drops 80%? No. Look at SWToR's numbers. Look at any MMO post release for that matter. In order for there to be a comparable drop in actual game numbers, the games would have to start with double or triple the number of players they actually start with.  
     The F-ing point is that it has meaning. 


    What meaning? Is it an indescribable meaning? The meaning certainly has nothing to do with accuracy, or some relation between XFire numbers and a game's actual population. There's possibly a relation between XFire's current numbers and the number of concurrent players in a game, but the only game where it's possible to see the relation is with Eve, because they are the only game that publishes their numbers.

    Here's an experiment for anyone with the interest and time. Take Eve's concurrent player population daily over a period of three weeks or so. At the same time, take XFire's numbers over the same period of time for Eve. Try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to their overall subscription numbers, since they publish those numbers, and then try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to XFire's player numbers. The final step is to let everyone know what the relation is between XFire's numbers and Eve's concurrent player numbers and the relation between Eve's concurrent player numbers and their subscription numbers. Since XFire has meaning, and is a population estimation tool, this experiment can't possibly end in anything but success.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • SaunZSaunZ Las Vegas, NVPosts: 159Member
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by waynejr2

    Originally posted by lizardbones  

    Originally posted by waynejr2

    Originally posted by Ozmodan This entire conversation is quite silly.  The only people who use XFire are console gamers and many of  those generally don't play MMO's.  So any statistics derived from such are bogus.  Means zilch when the vast majority of players do not use it!
     So if you look at a chart for a game about the time of release, you notice a massive spike in population on release day.  You would tell us that information is bogus.
    You could say "there's a big spike in sales", but that doesn't tell you how many people are playing the game. It certainly doesn't tell you how many people bought the game. The only thing you can compare XFire numbers to is XFire. For instance, if the XFire population of a game drops 80%, does that mean the overall game's population drops 80%? No. Look at SWToR's numbers. Look at any MMO post release for that matter. In order for there to be a comparable drop in actual game numbers, the games would have to start with double or triple the number of players they actually start with.  
     The F-ing point is that it has meaning. 

    What meaning? Is it an indescribable meaning? The meaning certainly has nothing to do with accuracy, or some relation between XFire numbers and a game's actual population. There's possibly a relation between XFire's current numbers and the number of concurrent players in a game, but the only game where it's possible to see the relation is with Eve, because they are the only game that publishes their numbers.

    Here's an experiment for anyone with the interest and time. Take Eve's concurrent player population daily over a period of three weeks or so. At the same time, take XFire's numbers over the same period of time for Eve. Try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to their overall subscription numbers, since they publish those numbers, and then try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to XFire's player numbers. The final step is to let everyone know what the relation is between XFire's numbers and Eve's concurrent player numbers and the relation between Eve's concurrent player numbers and their subscription numbers. Since XFire has meaning, and is a population estimation tool, this experiment can't possibly end in anything but success.

     

    darn... you were exactly correct.  Both Eve and XFire showed Eve's numbers going down during the week and up on the weekends.  just like life.. XFire has meaning!

     

    predict, measure, compare, report - learn it, live it, worship it

     

    Sz

    :o)

  • Slappy1Slappy1 columbus, OHPosts: 458Member
    Originally posted by SaunZ
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by waynejr2

    Originally posted by lizardbones  

    Originally posted by waynejr2

    Originally posted by Ozmodan This entire conversation is quite silly.  The only people who use XFire are console gamers and many of  those generally don't play MMO's.  So any statistics derived from such are bogus.  Means zilch when the vast majority of players do not use it!
     So if you look at a chart for a game about the time of release, you notice a massive spike in population on release day.  You would tell us that information is bogus.
    You could say "there's a big spike in sales", but that doesn't tell you how many people are playing the game. It certainly doesn't tell you how many people bought the game. The only thing you can compare XFire numbers to is XFire. For instance, if the XFire population of a game drops 80%, does that mean the overall game's population drops 80%? No. Look at SWToR's numbers. Look at any MMO post release for that matter. In order for there to be a comparable drop in actual game numbers, the games would have to start with double or triple the number of players they actually start with.  
     The F-ing point is that it has meaning. 

    What meaning? Is it an indescribable meaning? The meaning certainly has nothing to do with accuracy, or some relation between XFire numbers and a game's actual population. There's possibly a relation between XFire's current numbers and the number of concurrent players in a game, but the only game where it's possible to see the relation is with Eve, because they are the only game that publishes their numbers.

    Here's an experiment for anyone with the interest and time. Take Eve's concurrent player population daily over a period of three weeks or so. At the same time, take XFire's numbers over the same period of time for Eve. Try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to their overall subscription numbers, since they publish those numbers, and then try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to XFire's player numbers. The final step is to let everyone know what the relation is between XFire's numbers and Eve's concurrent player numbers and the relation between Eve's concurrent player numbers and their subscription numbers. Since XFire has meaning, and is a population estimation tool, this experiment can't possibly end in anything but success.

     

    darn... you were exactly correct.  Both Eve and XFire showed Eve's numbers going down during the week and up on the weekends.  just like life.. XFire has meaning!

     

    predict, measure, compare, report - learn it, live it, worship it

     

    Sz

    :o)


    Love ya Saunz,you...you describe the whole of it all,that gives it meaning :)

    Some day I'm going to put a sword through your eye and out the back of your skull!

    Arya Stark

  • TheCrow2kTheCrow2k Adelaide, AKPosts: 953Member
    The theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by SaunZ
    Originally posted by lizardbones   Originally posted by waynejr2 Originally posted by lizardbones   Originally posted by waynejr2 Originally posted by Ozmodan This entire conversation is quite silly.  The only people who use XFire are console gamers and many of  those generally don't play MMO's.  So any statistics derived from such are bogus.  Means zilch when the vast majority of players do not use it!
     So if you look at a chart for a game about the time of release, you notice a massive spike in population on release day.  You would tell us that information is bogus.
    You could say "there's a big spike in sales", but that doesn't tell you how many people are playing the game. It certainly doesn't tell you how many people bought the game. The only thing you can compare XFire numbers to is XFire. For instance, if the XFire population of a game drops 80%, does that mean the overall game's population drops 80%? No. Look at SWToR's numbers. Look at any MMO post release for that matter. In order for there to be a comparable drop in actual game numbers, the games would have to start with double or triple the number of players they actually start with.  
     The F-ing point is that it has meaning. 
    What meaning? Is it an indescribable meaning? The meaning certainly has nothing to do with accuracy, or some relation between XFire numbers and a game's actual population. There's possibly a relation between XFire's current numbers and the number of concurrent players in a game, but the only game where it's possible to see the relation is with Eve, because they are the only game that publishes their numbers. Here's an experiment for anyone with the interest and time. Take Eve's concurrent player population daily over a period of three weeks or so. At the same time, take XFire's numbers over the same period of time for Eve. Try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to their overall subscription numbers, since they publish those numbers, and then try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to XFire's player numbers. The final step is to let everyone know what the relation is between XFire's numbers and Eve's concurrent player numbers and the relation between Eve's concurrent player numbers and their subscription numbers. Since XFire has meaning, and is a population estimation tool, this experiment can't possibly end in anything but success.  
    darn... you were exactly correct.  Both Eve and XFire showed Eve's numbers going down during the week and up on the weekends.  just like life.. XFire has meaning!

     

    predict, measure, compare, report - learn it, live it, worship it

     

    Sz

    :o)




    Whoa buddy. You don't get a just cookie yet. Show the relation between the concurrent players and the subscriptions.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by TheCrow2k
    The theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.

    There have been a couple of research papers done on XFire players themselves, and the "average" XFire player plays a lot of games, and tends to move from game to game a good bit. There's no public information available like that by category though. For instance, of all the XFire players who played MMOs, how long do they average playing an MMO per week and overall? What was the longest they spent playing an MMO and the shortest? I mean, that information does exist, but that's the information that XFire gets to sell, not the information that they let random people scoop up and use.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • SaunZSaunZ Las Vegas, NVPosts: 159Member
    Originally posted by TheCrow2k
    The theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.

    just like the percentages we use for the US Presidential Election Polls...

    awww, TheCrow2k, your clan is SO normally distributed.

    everybody wants to be non-parametric but, only us on the bottom of the bell get to brag.

     

    Sz

    :o)

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