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Why hype never works

FreezzoFreezzo EnschedePosts: 235Member

It seems some people just don't get it, so I thought I'd put a little piece on it here. Gartner made a great analysis on hypes and the expectations of people combined with the real (non-perfect) result.

This graph about says it all, with the 5 phases of the hype included.

 

A hype cycle in Gartner's interpretation comprises five phases:

  1. "Technology Trigger" — The first phase of a hype cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
  2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations" — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
  3. "Trough of Disillusionment" — Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
  4. "Slope of Enlightenment" — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
  5. "Plateau of Productivity" — A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
Fit this on an MMO, where limited information is released and before (and even during) beta testing most people don't know squat about the real game, longevity predictions and all that, there'll be too many expectations. After that the usual MMO-bash starts, which after a while turns (or should turn) into acceptance of the flawed product and people continue to play it if they like it despite those flaws, whilst the people who like the shiny and the hype will have moved on to the next big thing.
And that's why all games coming up will fail in the eyes of those who are joining the hype, unless they go in with a clear mind and ready to accept that every MMO (or game or any product for that matter) has it's flaws.

"We need men who can dream of things that never were." - John F. Kennedy
And for MMORPGs ever so true...

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Comments

  • laokokolaokoko TaipeiPosts: 2,003Member

    Ya I remember during GW2 beta, everyone is bashing me when I say anything remotely negative.  ( I called GW2 a wow clone, I said that game have no raiding).  And everyone is like nono, GW2 is very different from wow, and nono those dynamic event is called raiding.

    And now I see many people bash GW2, which I dont' understand.  That game is probably doing better than almost all mmorpg on the market now, and people bash it?  Are your expectation a bit too high?

  • VengeSunsoarVengeSunsoar Posts: 5,314Member Uncommon
    The movie industry and apple would like to take this time to laugh at the hype analysis... all the way to the bank.

    Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,801Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by laokoko

    Ya I remember during GW2 beta, everyone is bashing me when I say anything remotely negative.  ( I called GW2 a wow clone, I said that game have no raiding).  And everyone is like nono, GW2 is very different from wow, and nono those dynamic event is called raiding.

    And now I see many people bash GW2, which I dont' understand.  That game is probably doing better than almost all mmorpg on the market now, and people bash it?  Are your expectation a bit too high?

    So you said GW2 was a WoW clone and had no raids.

    Considering how WoW has been trying to make raids the central aspect of the game something doesn't make sense in your arguments.

     

    Now back to the OP.

    Hype has its place.

    I've been hyped about games before, Diablo II, Warcraft 3, Age of Empires 2, Guild Wars 2, etc.

    And I wasn't disapointed with those games.

     

    Many people just can't filter and analyze the information available in a reasonable way. and sometimes with the diarreha of information and misinformation it can sometimes to be hard.

    A good game will be a good game and a bad game will be a bad game, overhyped or underhyped.

     

    Lastly, i don't see "fail." in that hype cycle. Just human nature.

     

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • ElsaboltsElsabolts Greencastle, INPosts: 2,594Member Uncommon

    This should be sent to Funcom right away !

    image

  • IcewhiteIcewhite Elmhurst, ILPosts: 6,403Member
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    The movie industry and apple would like to take this time to laugh at the hype analysis... all the way to the bank.

    But there's signs that the great iphone boom has just about run its course.

    "Social media" may not be the enormous marketing buzzword it once was...another industry only due for an any-moment-now dotcom bust?

    Predict the next boom, and make a fortune. Predicting the past won't do the trick.

     

    Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  • VengeSunsoarVengeSunsoar Posts: 5,314Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Icewhite
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    The movie industry and apple would like to take this time to laugh at the hype analysis... all the way to the bank.

    But there's signs that the great iphone boom has just about run its course.

    "Social media" may not be the enormous marketing buzzword it once was...another industry only due for an any-moment-now dotcom bust?

    Predict the next boom, and make a fortune. Predicting the past won't do the trick.

     

     Yes, all things must come to an end.  However you cannot say that it didn't work when it made the company billions and turned it into the most profitable company in the world.

    Hype works, there is no doubt about it.  It generates interest and gets people looking at your product.  In order for the hype to continue though you better have a decent product.

    edit - and while apple did not meet expected earnings, it still had record earnings, not to match the growth of last year but very good growth.

    Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  • laokokolaokoko TaipeiPosts: 2,003Member

    I think people's expectation is just out of whack.

    Only way for a mmorpg to success is to steal player other mmorpg.  It is impossible to have that many successful mmorpg.

    Everytime a new mmorpg is released, people bash it for their quick decline sub base.  I mean... Is it a suprise?

    Take 2 of the most popular mmorpg game out now, wow and eve.  Most of people on those trial don't even subscribe. 

     

     

  • ShakyMoShakyMo BradfordPosts: 7,207Member
    Diablo 3 says hi.
  • ScaryMonkScaryMonk LondonPosts: 97Member
    Originally posted by Freezzo

    It seems some people just don't get it, so I thought I'd put a little piece on it here. Gartner made a great analysis on hypes and the expectations of people combined with the real (non-perfect) result.

    This graph about says it all, with the 5 phases of the hype included.

     

    A hype cycle in Gartner's interpretation comprises five phases:

    1. "Technology Trigger" — The first phase of a hype cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
    2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations" — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
    3. "Trough of Disillusionment" — Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
    4. "Slope of Enlightenment" — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
    5. "Plateau of Productivity" — A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
    Fit this on an MMO, where limited information is released and before (and even during) beta testing most people don't know squat about the real game, longevity predictions and all that, there'll be too many expectations. After that the usual MMO-bash starts, which after a while turns (or should turn) into acceptance of the flawed product and people continue to play it if they like it despite those flaws, whilst the people who like the shiny and the hype will have moved on to the next big thing.
    And that's why all games coming up will fail in the eyes of those who are joining the hype, unless they go in with a clear mind and ready to accept that every MMO (or game or any product for that matter) has it's flaws.

    Did Gartner take a PHD in stating the obvious? 

  • QuirhidQuirhid TamperePosts: 5,969Member Common
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    The movie industry and apple would like to take this time to laugh at the hype analysis... all the way to the bank.

    Thats what I thought. image

    I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been -Wayne Gretzky

  • ScottgunScottgun Williamsville, NYPosts: 356Member
    Originally posted by Quirhid
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    The movie industry and apple would like to take this time to laugh at the hype analysis... all the way to the bank.

    Thats what I thought. image

    Dittoed.

    Now we're calling prostitutes "sex workers". What's next? Calling hit men "end-of-life technicians"?

  • Rthuth434Rthuth434 uniondale, NYPosts: 346Member
    Originally posted by laokoko

    Ya I remember during GW2 beta, everyone is bashing me when I say anything remotely negative.  ( I called GW2 a wow clone, I said that game have no raiding).  And everyone is like nono, GW2 is very different from wow, and nono those dynamic event is called raiding.

    And now I see many people bash GW2, which I dont' understand.  That game is probably doing better than almost all mmorpg on the market now, and people bash it?  Are your expectation a bit too high?

    yet GW2 is the only MMO selling 5 months after release in a loooong time without heavy discounts. it'll pass yet another sales milestone before the next "competitor" is even out.

     

    rofl.

  • XAPKenXAPKen Northwest, INPosts: 4,912Member Uncommon

    Time the box sales to `Peak of Inflated Expectations', and walk away with millions.

     

    Seems to work well for EA.

     


    Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now turned Amateur Game Developer.  I don't Forum PVP.  If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident.  Realm Lords 2 on MMORPG.com
  • Rthuth434Rthuth434 uniondale, NYPosts: 346Member
    bitter mmo drifters, hopefully someone releases a good one besides blizzard and Anet...you guys need a home :(
  • jimdandy26jimdandy26 salem, ORPosts: 527Member

    11min mark tells you why hype works, and why its so important. Though you (and anyone who wants to actually create anything) should really watch the entire presentation. Its a rather great way to spend 15min.

    I did battle with ignorance today, and ignorance won.

    To exercise power costs effort and demands courage. That is why so many fail to assert rights to which they are perfectly entitled - because a right is a kind of power but they are too lazy or too cowardly to exercise it. The virtues which cloak these faults are called patience and forbearance.

  • spankybusspankybus Orlando, FLPosts: 1,154Member Uncommon

    The only purpose of hype is to get people. To buy the game before they know nothing about it, sight-unseen.

     

    inmthat respect, Hype works.mit sucks....but it works. Just look at how many people have been duped into buying games that they quickly assess as being lame.

     

    shrug

    Frank 'Spankybus' Mignone
    www.spankybus.com
    -3d Artist & Compositor
    -Writer
    -Professional Amature

  • pmilespmiles Federal Way, WAPosts: 383Member

    You know, an old Professor of mine used to say "Check it out, I could be lying!" at the end of every lecture.  He suggested that just because someone says it, doesn't make it true.  Just because someone has written it, doesn't make it true.  The only way to prove to yourself that what you have been told is true, is to test it out for yourself.  Most people take what they hear or read at face value.  Call it hype.  Call it marketing.  Call it stupidity.  The reality is, we're too lazy to challenge what is being stated, we'd rather accept it as truth.

     

    Games don't fail, people fail.  Even a bad game can succeed.  Hype doesn't make a bad game good or a good game bad.  People do.  You choose to accept it as truth without first proving it to be so, you are the problem.  Hype is just a tool to sway the lazy into accepting something made up.

     

    And since this was just posted on the internet, it must be true, because nothing on the internet is a lie.

  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Stone Mountain, GAPosts: 13,643Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    The movie industry and apple would like to take this time to laugh at the hype analysis... all the way to the bank.

    Exactly. This thread is an example of how a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing, as the OP is trying to apply a graph specifically about innovation and new technology to a particular entertainment product/service based on the technology.

    EDIT: Great link, jimdandy!

     

     

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • ScotScot UKPosts: 5,757Member Uncommon

    As much as we are disdainful of hype it keeps on working. It is like smoking, you know you have to give up but never can and finally it gives you a disease like the easyMMO game you are playing or going to see that so-so movie.

  • AsariashaAsariasha Somewhere inPosts: 218Member Uncommon

    Hype always works ...

     

    ... as long as the consumer buys the product!

     

    Onlinegames are no longer being developed by small teams of nerds who want to create a superb gaming experience. The gaming industry is leaving the start-up phase and is entering the stage of a consolidated market. This means that in order to deliver the needed quality for success a huge amount of capital is needed. In order to receive funding, the product must become a succesful product in terms of after-tax earnings.

     

    This is where the marketing machinery comes in handy. It shows of a products best sides and generates hype. Consumers buy the product and thats it. The problem is: Marketing signals the game was developed just for you. But it wasn't and that is why many customers become unsatisfied with a product soon after release.

     

    Bottomline: The gaming industry has become mature. Best option for the consumer is to decide, if a game is worth your money or not. This includes a lot of reading and research - same as you do if you decide to buy a car or anything else.

     

    Regards

    Asariasha

  • waynejr2waynejr2 West Toluca Lake, CAPosts: 4,473Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by laokoko

    Ya I remember during GW2 beta, everyone is bashing me when I say anything remotely negative.  ( I called GW2 a wow clone, I said that game have no raiding).  And everyone is like nono, GW2 is very different from wow, and nono those dynamic event is called raiding.

    And now I see many people bash GW2, which I dont' understand.  That game is probably doing better than almost all mmorpg on the market now, and people bash it?  Are your expectation a bit too high?

     Why were you bashing?

    Why did you choose to speak up?

     

  • azzamasinazzamasin Butler, OHPosts: 3,066Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by laokoko

    Ya I remember during GW2 beta, everyone is bashing me when I say anything remotely negative.  ( I called GW2 a wow clone, I said that game have no raiding).  And everyone is like nono, GW2 is very different from wow, and nono those dynamic event is called raiding.

    And now I see many people bash GW2, which I dont' understand.  That game is probably doing better than almost all mmorpg on the market now, and people bash it?  Are your expectation a bit too high?

    Because bashing and hating is far worse then hyping a game.

     

    Onto the OP though, I pity those who can not look forward to something and I especially can't stand people who make fun of or demean those who are excited for something announced.

     

    Hype is perfectly fine and healthy, its what draws some of us to a game.

    Sandbox means open world, non-linear gaming PERIOD!

    Subscription Gaming, especially MMO gaming is a Cash grab bigger then the most P2W cash shop!

    Bring Back Exploration and lengthy progression times. RPG's have always been about the Journey not the destination!!!

    image

  • ScotScot UKPosts: 5,757Member Uncommon
    Advertising and features draw peoples attention, hype just makes them angry when they don't get what they were promised.
  • SidraketSidraket merced, CAPosts: 79Member

    Things like TOR show me that developers are still trying to develop games for long term subscriptions. If not for them spending way more than they could ever recoup on initial sales i would have assumed all mmo development was just to hype things up, get box sales, and then cash out. Because that seems to be all they are able to do these days. People want a new game and they keep getting a reskinned old one with empty promises.

    This is why im against box sales, blame UO for that. The first mmo i played (pre uo) had no initial cost, you downloaded it and if you wanted to play past the trial period you started paying ($10 a month). Very clearly a game designed for people to play and stick with, no money grab.

  • EnerzealEnerzeal WarringtonPosts: 326Member

    Hype is a product of stupidity.

    Two situations.

    A) Random gentleman is super excited about a product, stupid person sees his excitement  and gets pumped up himself without any prior research of the product. It releases and hes let down, random gentleman might still be happy however.

    B) Person fails to properly research product and gets excited, tells the world.

    Hype is easily defeated and to the intelligent person should not be an issue. Research your product, investigate it thoroughly, then decide how badly you need that thing in your life. If you were stupid, you'll get burnt.

    A Guild mate once said however, Hype is only a bad thing to an intelligent person when those who are collectively hyping up a product, feeding off the frenzy, begin to invade other similar products, heralding them as the future.

     

     

    I still have yet to purchase Guild Wars 2, I did not buy into the hype.

    I purchased SWToR, because I was in the beta and really enjoyed the early game.

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