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3 million copies sold since august general consensus so far

1151618202124

Comments

  • Marcus-Marcus- chepachet, RIPosts: 969Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by nerbon
    you can see the statistic on xfire... or do you think only xfire players got bored smashing 3 buttons

    hmm

     

    i think they grew bored because they were doing wrong.  I enjoy the combat, and use a wee bit more than 3 buttons image

  • nerbonnerbon kickapooPosts: 28Member
    Originally posted by botrytis

    Originally posted by Camaro68
    Originally posted by xArsonistx
    these are just copies sold which i can believe but i can tell you that there is no where near that about of people playing this game.  I played the game religeously since release I do believe at one point the game did have atleast 400k concurrent users thats about the only statement I heard to be true from them. At this point  I believe the game may only have at best 50k concurrent users. I actually believe it to be less 15-20k but im being nice.   All of the servers are more or less dead. Only 2 servers on NA an EU can barely fill WvW on a reset. all of the zones are empty with events that cant be completed when exploring you pretty much only see bots. Where are these people? they have a milllion people doing fractals? I don't think so. I would also point out that SPVP is a ghost town and might i remind you that spvp browser is your region so yup when you see only 200 people in the broswer thats it for all of north america which is pretty bad.  Sorry I am not seeing the numbers they are coming up with. I think the game is in a lot of trouble.  

     

    Checked xfire's history and GW2's had an incredibly steep population decline:

    On July 15th, 2012 SWTOR had 10015 hours played.

    On January 17th, 2013 GW2 had 10987 hours played.

    Here we've got a game with no sub fee losing players faster than a game with a sub fee.  The days of a quality developer slapping together a WoW clone and raking in the cash are long gone.  All GW2 has for revenue is box sales and a cash shop full of generic fantasy MMO gear.

    LOL another XFire wacko. Sorry - XFire is used for determining XFire players not the population in a game. That is any game - you must be desparate to prove yourself right if you trot XFire out.

     


    so enlighten me plz what xfire does?
  • botrytisbotrytis In Flux, MIPosts: 2,567Member
    Originally posted by jpnz
    Originally posted by nukempro
     

    Xfire huh? So do you have the stats that show what percentage of the entire GW2 playerbase actually uses that? Personally I don't use it and I don't know anyone who does. Yet forum goers seem to hold it up like it's the holy grail of seeing how much people play MMO's.

    Xfire shows a decline / incline of a portion of the playerbase across games.

    Statistically speaking, it is large / good enough to be a 'random sample'.

    XFire is not random. Random would mean just that - a random sample of people. That is what is done with specific polls, etc. You have to install XFire, so it is not random. Statistically speaking it is good for determining what XFire users do nothing else. If you say it is large enough, how many players of GW2 (make it in %) use XFire? If you don't know then the number means absolutely squat nothing when talking about the population of any game.

    image

    "In 50 years, when I talk to my grandchildren about these days, I'll make sure to mention what an accomplished MMO player I was. They are going to be so proud ..."
    by Naqaj - 7/17/2013 MMORPG.com forum

  • nukempronukempro Hudson, FLPosts: 76Member

    Just to clarify, I am not saying you are wrong..I am just saying there is no evidence you are right either. I happen to take the xfire thing with a grain of salt. You of course are free to believe whatever you like! On a side note, I am dissapointed in GW2 and don't really play at all anymore. I am hoping an expansion entices me back. Also would like to point out that as GW2 doesn't have a sub...it can't actually "Lose" players in the same sense as a sub mmo.

     

  • jpnzjpnz SydneyPosts: 3,529Member
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by jpnz
     

    Xfire shows a decline / incline of a portion of the playerbase across games.

    Statistically speaking, it is large / good enough to be a 'random sample'.

    XFire can be many things.

    One thing XFire isn't is a random sample.

    And the facts backing that it isn't a random sample is...???

    Last I checked, Xfire is fairly large across multiple games (esp GW2) to be considered a 'sample'.

    It has no 'bias selection' for any one game (be it LoL or GW2 or D3 or WoW or w/e) which satisfies the 'an equal chance of being selected from the entire population'.

    Whether the analysis done on the random sample is correct or not is another issue, from a pure stats point of view, it matches all the criteria of a 'random sample'.

     

    'But you have to install it!' is a hilarious argument. By this logic, 'you have to answer the phone / fill out a paper / talk to someone' can be used against every survey done.

    I mean c'mon.. this is Stat 101. -.-

    Gdemami -
    Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.

  • nerbonnerbon kickapooPosts: 28Member
    Originally posted by Marcus-

    Originally posted by nerbon
    you can see the statistic on xfire... or do you think only xfire players got bored smashing 3 buttons

    hmm

     

    i think they grew bored because they were doing wrong.  I enjoy the combat, and use a wee bit more than 3 buttons image

     

    log in gw2..count buttons... see the timer on buttons

    and push them
  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Common
    Originally posted by nerbon
    so enlighten me plz what xfire does?

    its software that a player can install on their PC -- it keeps track of their gametime, Raptr does the same thing

     

    ongoing Xfire discussion

    http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/373008/XFire-As-MMO-population-estimation-tool.html

  • botrytisbotrytis In Flux, MIPosts: 2,567Member
    Originally posted by jpnz
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by jpnz
     

    Xfire shows a decline / incline of a portion of the playerbase across games.

    Statistically speaking, it is large / good enough to be a 'random sample'.

    XFire can be many things.

    One thing XFire isn't is a random sample.

    And the facts backing that it isn't a random sample is...???

    Last I checked, Xfire is fairly large across multiple games (esp GW2) to be considered a 'sample'.

    It has no 'bias selection' for any one game (be it LoL or GW2 or D3 or WoW or w/e) which satisfies the 'an equal chance of being selected from the entire population'.

    Whether the analysis done on the random sample is correct or not is another issue, from a pure stats point of view, it matches all the criteria of a 'random sample'.

     

    'But you have to install it!' is a hilarious argument. By this logic, 'you have to answer the phone / fill out a paper / talk to someone' can be used against every survey done.

    I mean c'mon.. this is Stat 101. -.-

    It is biased, if you have to install it - that is a bias. That is STATS 101 - really.

    image

    "In 50 years, when I talk to my grandchildren about these days, I'll make sure to mention what an accomplished MMO player I was. They are going to be so proud ..."
    by Naqaj - 7/17/2013 MMORPG.com forum

  • nerbonnerbon kickapooPosts: 28Member
    Originally posted by Nadia

    Originally posted by nerbon
    so enlighten me plz what xfire does?

    its software that a player can install on their PC -- it keeps track of their gametime, Raptr does the same thing

     

    ongoing Xfire discussion

    http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/373008/XFire-As-MMO-population-estimation-tool.html

     

    well it sounds like xfire players are less lazy then overage
  • jpnzjpnz SydneyPosts: 3,529Member
    Originally posted by botrytis
     

    It is biased, if you have to install it - that is a bias. That is STATS 101 - really.

    Cool story bro, if you want to deny every survey done ever, go right ahead.

    ROFL!

    Gdemami -
    Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.

  • botrytisbotrytis In Flux, MIPosts: 2,567Member
    Originally posted by nerbon
    Originally posted by Marcus-
    Originally posted by nerbon
    you can see the statistic on xfire... or do you think only xfire players got bored smashing 3 buttons

    hmm

     

    i think they grew bored because they were doing wrong.  I enjoy the combat, and use a wee bit more than 3 buttons image

     

    log in gw2..count buttons... see the timer on buttons and push them

    Or log into Rift or WoW - get confused with all the skill bars and what they do - try to macro things to make it to 10 buttons. OH WAIT GW2 already has only 10 - WOW so much easier to play.

    image

    "In 50 years, when I talk to my grandchildren about these days, I'll make sure to mention what an accomplished MMO player I was. They are going to be so proud ..."
    by Naqaj - 7/17/2013 MMORPG.com forum

  • botrytisbotrytis In Flux, MIPosts: 2,567Member
    Originally posted by jpnz
    Originally posted by botrytis
     

    It is biased, if you have to install it - that is a bias. That is STATS 101 - really.

    Cool story bro, if you want to deny every survey done ever, go right ahead.

    ROFL!

    What survey has you install a program BEFORE you are counted?

    "A statistic is biased if it is calculated in such a way that is systematically different from the population parameter of interest. The following lists some types of, or aspects of, bias which should not be considered mutually exclusive:

    • Selection bias, where individuals or groups are more likely to take part in a research project than others, resulting in biased samples. This can also be termed Berksonian bias.[1]
    • The bias of an estimator is the difference between an estimator's expectations and the true value of the parameter being estimated.
      • Omitted-variable bias is the bias that appears in estimates of parameters in a regression analysis when the assumed specification is incorrect, in that it omits an independent variable that should be in the model.
    • In statistical hypothesis testing, a test is said to be unbiased when the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis is less than or equal to the significance level when the null hypothesis is true, and the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis is greater than or equal to the significance level when the alternative hypothesis is true,
    • Detection bias is where a phenomenon is more likely to be observed and/or reported for a particular set of study subjects. For instance, the syndemic involving obesity and diabetes may mean doctors are more likely to look for diabetes in obese patients than in less overweight patients, leading to an inflation in diabetes among obese patients because of skewed detection efforts.
    • Funding bias may lead to selection of outcomes, test samples, or test procedures that favor a study's financial sponsor.
    • Reporting bias involves a skew in the availability of data, such that observations of a certain kind may be more likely to be reported and consequently used in research.
    • Data-snooping bias comes from the misuse of data mining techniques.
    • Analytical bias arise due to the way that the results are evaluated.
    • Exclusion bias arise due to the systematic inclusion of certain individuals from the study."

     

     

    Just an FYI from a basic stats explanation website. XFire could be considered a Berksonian bias.

     

    image

    "In 50 years, when I talk to my grandchildren about these days, I'll make sure to mention what an accomplished MMO player I was. They are going to be so proud ..."
    by Naqaj - 7/17/2013 MMORPG.com forum

  • nerbonnerbon kickapooPosts: 28Member
    Originally posted by botrytis

    Originally posted by nerbon
    Originally posted by Marcus-
    Originally posted by nerbon
    you can see the statistic on xfire... or do you think only xfire players got bored smashing 3 buttons

    hmm

     

    i think they grew bored because they were doing wrong.  I enjoy the combat, and use a wee bit more than 3 buttons image

     

    log in gw2..count buttons... see the timer on buttons and push them

    Or log into Rift or WoW - get confused with all the skill bars and what they do - try to macro things to make it to 10 buttons. OH WAIT GW2 already has only 10 - WOW so much easier to play.

     

    never played rift

    but i enjoyed wow much more then gw2...i got my char to lvl 80 in gw2 ..pvp was boring ...wvw was like the cheap version of warhammer online
  • jpnzjpnz SydneyPosts: 3,529Member
    Originally posted by botrytis
    Originally posted by jpnz
    Originally posted by botrytis
     

    It is biased, if you have to install it - that is a bias. That is STATS 101 - really.

    Cool story bro, if you want to deny every survey done ever, go right ahead.

    ROFL!

    What survey has you install a program BEFORE you are counted?

    /snip

    So your logic is 'which survey has you DO STUFF' before you are counted?'

    I dunno, EVERY SINGLE ONE? 

    Did you ever fill out a survey before? You normally talk to someone or fill out something or even click something. You actually "DO STUFF" to be counted. OMG!

     

    Xfire doesn't have selection bias cause there are no bias on a particular game.

    Gdemami -
    Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,801Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by jpnz
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by jpnz
     

    Xfire shows a decline / incline of a portion of the playerbase across games.

    Statistically speaking, it is large / good enough to be a 'random sample'.

    XFire can be many things.

    One thing XFire isn't is a random sample.

    And the facts backing that it isn't a random sample is...???

    Last I checked, Xfire is fairly large across multiple games (esp GW2) to be considered a 'sample'.

    It has no 'bias selection' for any one game (be it LoL or GW2 or D3 or WoW or w/e) which satisfies the 'an equal chance of being selected from the entire population'.

    Whether the analysis done on the random sample is correct or not is another issue, from a pure stats point of view, it matches all the criteria of a 'random sample'.

     

    'But you have to install it!' is a hilarious argument. By this logic, 'you have to answer the phone / fill out a paper / talk to someone' can be used against every survey done.

    I mean c'mon.. this is Stat 101. -.-

    Random sample - every member of a group has to have an equal and independent chance of being selected.

    If you don't use XFire you have no chance of being selected.

    XFire user is a sub population.

     

    Second. XFire isn't a sample of XFire users - it is the actual number.

    Third - phone was much more widespread than XFire.

    Fourth - polling companies had to change how they poll by phone since amongst younger people it became rarer for people to have fixed phones.

    Fifth - while one will have to fill out a paper or talk to someone, they have the exact same change of being randomly selected, at urn exits they all are voters.

    Sixth - polls don't replace elections.

    Seventh - you need to retake (or take it for the first time) stat 101.

     

    Eight - have you noticed that WoW dropped from 90K hours in January 2012 to 25K hours in January 2013?

    That pretty much every MMORPG lost at least 50% of its population in that time frame?

    So did WoW lost 66% of its population in 1 year?

    Did the MMORPGs lost 50%?

    Or is XFire just becoming smaller and smaller and less representative of game habits/preferences?

     

     

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Common
    Originally posted by jpnz

    Xfire doesn't have selection bias cause there are no bias on a particular game.

    some games run promotions encouraging players to signup

    http://www.xfire.com/cms/rop2wofficialrules/

    During GameSamba promtion - any user who enters the code "xifre" in game will receive:
    1 - 30 day mount
    1 - Level 30 scroll (instantly levels to 30 which includes 150,000 Gold)
    1 - 100% Booster Scroll

     

    thats a bias

     

  • TorgrimTorgrim GothenburgPosts: 2,088Member
    Originally posted by nerbon
    Originally posted by botrytis
    Originally posted by nerbon
    Originally posted by Marcus-
    Originally posted by nerbon
    you can see the statistic on xfire... or do you think only xfire players got bored smashing 3 buttons

    hmm

     

    i think they grew bored because they were doing wrong.  I enjoy the combat, and use a wee bit more than 3 buttons image

     

    log in gw2..count buttons... see the timer on buttons and push them

    Or log into Rift or WoW - get confused with all the skill bars and what they do - try to macro things to make it to 10 buttons. OH WAIT GW2 already has only 10 - WOW so much easier to play.

     

    never played rift but i enjoyed wow much more then gw2...i got my char to lvl 80 in gw2 ..pvp was boring ...wvw was like the cheap version of warhammer online

     

    Now I know you haven't played GW2, you are just here to troll and bash GW2.

    If it's not broken, you are not innovating.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,801Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by jpnz
    Originally posted by botrytis
    Originally posted by jpnz
    Originally posted by botrytis
     

    It is biased, if you have to install it - that is a bias. That is STATS 101 - really.

    Cool story bro, if you want to deny every survey done ever, go right ahead.

    ROFL!

    What survey has you install a program BEFORE you are counted?

    /snip

    So your logic is 'which survey has you DO STUFF' before you are counted?'

    I dunno, EVERY SINGLE ONE? 

    Did you ever fill out a survey before? You normally talk to someone or fill out something or even click something. You actually "DO STUFF" to be counted. OMG!

     

    Xfire doesn't have selection bias cause there are no bias on a particular game.

    It is biased on the type of player and so on the type of games they play.

    Additionally "game x" xfire population is a subset of "game x" population.

     

    You are confusing what XFire determins.

    XFire determin how popular games are amongst XFire users.

    And it isn't a poll.

    It is data.

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • nerbonnerbon kickapooPosts: 28Member
    Originally posted by Torgrim
    Originally posted by nerbon
    Originally posted by botrytis
    Originally posted by nerbon
    Originally posted by Marcus-
    Originally posted by nerbon
    you can see the statistic on xfire... or do you think only xfire players got bored smashing 3 buttons

    hmm

     

    i think they grew bored because they were doing wrong.  I enjoy the combat, and use a wee bit more than 3 buttons image

     

    log in gw2..count buttons... see the timer on buttons and push them

    Or log into Rift or WoW - get confused with all the skill bars and what they do - try to macro things to make it to 10 buttons. OH WAIT GW2 already has only 10 - WOW so much easier to play.

     

    never played rift but i enjoyed wow much more then gw2...i got my char to lvl 80 in gw2 ..pvp was boring ...wvw was like the cheap version of warhammer online

     

    Now I know you haven't played GW2, you are just here to troll and bash GW2.

     

    i see you have no idea what warhammer online was looks like you play only free to play games
  • DistopiaDistopia Baltimore, MDPosts: 16,903Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Nadia
    Originally posted by jpnz

    Xfire doesn't have selection bias cause there are no bias on a particular game.

    some games run promotions encouraging players to signup

    http://www.xfire.com/cms/rop2wofficialrules/

    During GameSamba promtion - any user who enters the code "xifre" in game will receive:
    1 - 30 day mount
    1 - Level 30 scroll (instantly levels to 30 which includes 150,000 Gold)
    1 - 100% Booster Scroll

     

    thats a bias

     

    Not exactly in the typical context of polling. Bias is typically applied in a restrictive way, exclusion being the primary goal (polling is quite a dirty business actually). Many polls are designed in a way that acheives a desired result. Especially where marketing/sales are involved.

    As for X-fire and how it works (accumulated hours of play) a promotion like the above isn't going to do a game much good, unless that game is actually fun and popular.

    For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson

    It is a sign of a defeated man, to attack at ones character in the face of logic and reason- Me

  • TorgrimTorgrim GothenburgPosts: 2,088Member
    Originally posted by nerbon
    Originally posted by Torgrim
    Originally posted by nerbon
    Originally posted by botrytis
    Originally posted by nerbon
    Originally posted by Marcus-
    Originally posted by nerbon
    you can see the statistic on xfire... or do you think only xfire players got bored smashing 3 buttons

    hmm

     

    i think they grew bored because they were doing wrong.  I enjoy the combat, and use a wee bit more than 3 buttons image

     

    log in gw2..count buttons... see the timer on buttons and push them

    Or log into Rift or WoW - get confused with all the skill bars and what they do - try to macro things to make it to 10 buttons. OH WAIT GW2 already has only 10 - WOW so much easier to play.

     

    never played rift but i enjoyed wow much more then gw2...i got my char to lvl 80 in gw2 ..pvp was boring ...wvw was like the cheap version of warhammer online

     

    Now I know you haven't played GW2, you are just here to troll and bash GW2.

     

    i see you have no idea what warhammer online was looks like you play only free to play games

     

    I was in Warhammer beta and played my first free month after launch and you saying Warhammer PVP is far superior to GW2 is laughable.

    Hell even on the offical forums the PVP,RvR got some serious flame for being lacking in many aspects.

    If it's not broken, you are not innovating.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,801Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Distopia
    Originally posted by Nadia
    Originally posted by jpnz

    Xfire doesn't have selection bias cause there are no bias on a particular game.

    some games run promotions encouraging players to signup

    http://www.xfire.com/cms/rop2wofficialrules/

    During GameSamba promtion - any user who enters the code "xifre" in game will receive:
    1 - 30 day mount
    1 - Level 30 scroll (instantly levels to 30 which includes 150,000 Gold)
    1 - 100% Booster Scroll

     

    thats a bias

     

    Not exactly in the typical context of polling. Bias is typically applied in a restrictive way, exclusion being the primary goal (polling is quite a dirty business actually). Many polls are designed in a way that acheives a desired result. Especially where marketing/sales are involved.

    As for X-fire and how it works (accumulated hours of play) a promotion like the above isn't going to do a game much good, unless that game is actually fun and popular.

    It might make the % of users in every game shift.

    For example, imagine the normal is that 0.3% of the population of a given game uses XFire.

    Now, Game A does a promotion to let players know XFire exists. Lets say some of them keep using for whatever reason (like not knowing how to uninstall it or not even noticing it).

    Now Game A has 10% of its population using XFire.

    Game B is twice as popular has Game A, but only has the 0.3% using it.

    So Game B with 100 000K players has 300 XFire players.

    Game A with 50 000K players has 5000 XFire players.

    When numbers are so low that WoW has 5K XFire players, it isn't that hard.

     

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • nerbonnerbon kickapooPosts: 28Member
    Originally posted by Torgrim
    Originally posted by nerbon
    Originally posted by Torgrim
    Originally posted by nerbon
    Originally posted by botrytis
    Originally posted by nerbon
    Originally posted by Marcus-
    Originally posted by nerbon
    you can see the statistic on xfire... or do you think only xfire players got bored smashing 3 buttons

    hmm

     

    i think they grew bored because they were doing wrong.  I enjoy the combat, and use a wee bit more than 3 buttons image

     

    log in gw2..count buttons... see the timer on buttons and push them

    Or log into Rift or WoW - get confused with all the skill bars and what they do - try to macro things to make it to 10 buttons. OH WAIT GW2 already has only 10 - WOW so much easier to play.

     

    never played rift but i enjoyed wow much more then gw2...i got my char to lvl 80 in gw2 ..pvp was boring ...wvw was like the cheap version of warhammer online

     

    Now I know you haven't played GW2, you are just here to troll and bash GW2.

     

    i see you have no idea what warhammer online was looks like you play only free to play games

     

    I was in Warhammer beta and played my first free month after launch and you saying Warhammer PVP is far superior to GW2 is laughable.

    Hell even on the offical forums the PVP,RvR got some serious flame for being lacking in many aspects.

    so...explain me then...in what gw2 WvW is better then WH RvR?

     

  • CaldicotCaldicot StockholmPosts: 432Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by Volkon

    Still playing it, still loving it. Still hit queues in WvW, still overflows in L.A. Still find that events draw a crowd in PvE pretty much anywhere. Still a great game.


     
    What do you mean by "still"? You make it sound like the game is 5 years old. Of course it's great, it's in fact currently the best mmo out there.

    If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe. - Carl Sagan

  • ChieftanChieftan Independence, MOPosts: 1,417Member
    Originally posted by jpnz
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by jpnz
     

    Xfire shows a decline / incline of a portion of the playerbase across games.

    Statistically speaking, it is large / good enough to be a 'random sample'.

    XFire can be many things.

    One thing XFire isn't is a random sample.

    And the facts backing that it isn't a random sample is...???

    Last I checked, Xfire is fairly large across multiple games (esp GW2) to be considered a 'sample'.

    It has no 'bias selection' for any one game (be it LoL or GW2 or D3 or WoW or w/e) which satisfies the 'an equal chance of being selected from the entire population'.

    Whether the analysis done on the random sample is correct or not is another issue, from a pure stats point of view, it matches all the criteria of a 'random sample'.

     

    'But you have to install it!' is a hilarious argument. By this logic, 'you have to answer the phone / fill out a paper / talk to someone' can be used against every survey done.

    I mean c'mon.. this is Stat 101. -.-

    I checked a TIME/CNN poll from right before the election last year, they only polled 1,000 people and were only 4% off from the actual popular vote tally 3 days later.  1,000 polled out of 129 million votes and they were that close.  1,000 is like .0001% of 129 million.

    xfire's sample group is much, much larger relative to 3 million GW2 boxes sold than an election poll.

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