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XFire - As MMO population estimation tool

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  • gamesrfungamesrfun Member Posts: 127
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    Originally posted by gamesrfun

    I contacted my friend in WoW:  he is going to send me the excel sheet tonight.

    I will then repost the data and you will quickly see how reliable XFire is when it comes to population estimation within a game (not between games).

     

    The data will be interesting to be sure, however how will it verify an ingame's population?  What is the comparison?  We will allready need to know the ingame population over several time periods in order to compare the data. 

    The data was pulled from various sources:

    From what I have at home this is what I saw (I'm at work atm)

    AoC (pulled from investor relations information)

    DaoC (pulled from the server statistics on the camelotherald)

    EVE: (freely available)

    Warhammer (upon its release, various server parses)

    Rift (server parses)

    WoW:  (server parsing)

    SWTOR: (server parsing, investor relations information)

    The Secret World (investor relations (new!)

    Darkfall (I have no clue, no information provided, I can leave this one out of people wish)

    D&D online (server parse, f2p+)

    LoTR (server parse, f2p+)

    Aion (server parse)

    Allods Online (server parse)

    Runes of Magic (server parse)

    Tera (server parse)

    That's all I can remember, but there were 20 data points, so I'm missing a few. 

     

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Member CommonPosts: 10,910


    Originally posted by gamesrfun
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar Originally posted by gamesrfun I contacted my friend in WoW:  he is going to send me the excel sheet tonight. I will then repost the data and you will quickly see how reliable XFire is when it comes to population estimation within a game (not between games).  
    The data will be interesting to be sure, however how will it verify an ingame's population?  What is the comparison?  We will allready need to know the ingame population over several time periods in order to compare the data. 
    The data was pulled from various sources:

    From what I have at home this is what I saw (I'm at work atm)

    AoC (pulled from investor relations information)

    DaoC (pulled from the server statistics on the camelotherald)

    EVE: (freely available)

    Warhammer (upon its release, various server parses)

    Rift (server parses)

    WoW:  (server parsing)

    SWTOR: (server parsing, investor relations information)

    The Secret World (investor relations (new!)

    Darkfall (I have no clue, no information provided, I can leave this one out of people wish)

    D&D online (server parse, f2p+)

    LoTR (server parse, f2p+)

    Aion (server parse)

    Allods Online (server parse)

    Runes of Magic (server parse)

    Tera (server parse)

    That's all I can remember, but there were 20 data points, so I'm missing a few. 

     




    What is a "server parse"?

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • gamesrfungamesrfun Member Posts: 127
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by gamesrfun

    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar

    Originally posted by gamesrfun I contacted my friend in WoW:  he is going to send me the excel sheet tonight. I will then repost the data and you will quickly see how reliable XFire is when it comes to population estimation within a game (not between games).  
    The data will be interesting to be sure, however how will it verify an ingame's population?  What is the comparison?  We will allready need to know the ingame population over several time periods in order to compare the data. 
    The data was pulled from various sources:

     

    From what I have at home this is what I saw (I'm at work atm)

    AoC (pulled from investor relations information)

    DaoC (pulled from the server statistics on the camelotherald)

    EVE: (freely available)

    Warhammer (upon its release, various server parses)

    Rift (server parses)

    WoW:  (server parsing)

    SWTOR: (server parsing, investor relations information)

    The Secret World (investor relations (new!)

    Darkfall (I have no clue, no information provided, I can leave this one out of people wish)

    D&D online (server parse, f2p+)

    LoTR (server parse, f2p+)

    Aion (server parse)

    Allods Online (server parse)

    Runes of Magic (server parse)

    Tera (server parse)

    That's all I can remember, but there were 20 data points, so I'm missing a few. 

     



    What is a "server parse"?

     

    Log onto the server.  Check the server population.  If there are two factions (or more), make a character there and pull the population at a set point in time. 

    I can get more info on each parse, but given the fact that this guy is nearly as smart as I am, I would imagine he considered things like server merges, anon characters, parse limits within games, time consistency, etc. etc.

  • SerenesSerenes Member UncommonPosts: 351
    Statistic/Business majors would facepalm at most of this.
  • kostoslavkostoslav Member UncommonPosts: 455
    Few of my friends started using x- fire just for LoL. They use voice chat in x-fire to talk with ppl they met in game.
  • strangiato2112strangiato2112 Member CommonPosts: 1,538
    Originally posted by zymurgeist
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    What is a "server parse"?

     

     It's where someone tried to count the ever changing number of concurrent users assuming it's constant during the count and representative of population. In short it's useless.

    Actually server parses are more useful than xfire and probably the best tool we have.

    But yes, there are a ton of factors.  Many games /anon and /role dont show up on a parse.  Many games are flat out unparseable because of no way to break down the max level other than class.  

  • strangiato2112strangiato2112 Member CommonPosts: 1,538
    Originally posted by gamesrfun
    but given the fact that this guy is nearly as smart as I am

    Well, no sense waiting for this "research" then

  • Camaro68Camaro68 Member Posts: 50

    You don't need any software or spreadsheets to do a head count on any SWTOR server.

    In the Who search bar type: 1

    That will tell you how many level 1 players are in the game regardless of zone--in your faction.

    Just go up from there.  When you get to 50, you have to type "Mercenary 50" and on down the line.

    I tried it and was suprised to see that at least on my server the Empire isn't much more populated.  There were 2900 Empire players on vs. 2500 Republic players.  The built up perception was that it was around 2:1 Empire.

    (For the sake of this arguement the server load was listed as Standard at the time)

  • madazzmadazz Member RarePosts: 2,106
    Originally posted by Sukiyaki

     

    PS: I want a stickied thread then to "discuss" how much WoW damaged and dragged down the quality and soul of the MMORPG genre and the playercommunity as well over the last decade,  without anyone permitted to "derail" it or go "off topic" by disagreeing or even doubting the premisses of the "discussion".

    While I have nothing against WoW, and I would actually be quicker to blame developers, I approve of this message! 

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Member CommonPosts: 10,910


    Originally posted by Camaro68
    You don't need any software or spreadsheets to do a head count on any SWTOR server.In the Who search bar type: 1That will tell you how many level 1 players are in the game regardless of zone--in your faction.Just go up from there.  When you get to 50, you have to type "Mercenary 50" and on down the line.I tried it and was suprised to see that at least on my server the Empire isn't much more populated.  There were 2900 Empire players on vs. 2500 Republic players.  The built up perception was that it was around 2:1 Empire.(For the sake of this arguement the server load was listed as Standard at the time)

    How long did this parse take you to complete?

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • strangiato2112strangiato2112 Member CommonPosts: 1,538
    Originally posted by Camaro68

    You don't need any software or spreadsheets to do a head count on any SWTOR server.

    In the Who search bar type: 1

    That will tell you how many level 1 players are in the game regardless of zone--in your faction.

    Just go up from there.  When you get to 50, you have to type "Mercenary 50" and on down the line.

    I tried it and was suprised to see that at least on my server the Empire isn't much more populated.  There were 2900 Empire players on vs. 2500 Republic players.  The built up perception was that it was around 2:1 Empire.

    (For the sake of this arguement the server load was listed as Standard at the time)

    most games cap the who command.  for instance, Rift caps it at 29.  So on most servers doing a /who 60 mage wont return the full list, and there is no way to break it down from there.

     

    Also in a game like EQ, using /role or /anon take you off a /who level search.  And enough people use these to make counting accurately impossible.

     

     

    Id be shocked if there really are 5400 concurrent logins in SWTOR.  It would mean they told the truth about the super servers (unlike games like Rift that say they drastically increased capacity but really just bumped it by a couple hundred)

  • Camaro68Camaro68 Member Posts: 50
    Originally posted by strangiato2112
    Originally posted by Camaro68

    You don't need any software or spreadsheets to do a head count on any SWTOR server.

    In the Who search bar type: 1

    That will tell you how many level 1 players are in the game regardless of zone--in your faction.

    Just go up from there.  When you get to 50, you have to type "Mercenary 50" and on down the line.

    I tried it and was suprised to see that at least on my server the Empire isn't much more populated.  There were 2900 Empire players on vs. 2500 Republic players.  The built up perception was that it was around 2:1 Empire.

    (For the sake of this arguement the server load was listed as Standard at the time)

    most games cap the who command.  for instance, Rift caps it at 29.  So on most servers doing a /who 60 mage wont return the full list, and there is no way to break it down from there.

     

    Also in a game like EQ, using /role or /anon take you off a /who level search.  And enough people use these to make counting accurately impossible.

     

     

    Id be shocked if there really are 5400 concurrent logins in SWTOR.  It would mean they told the truth about the super servers (unlike games like Rift that say they drastically increased capacity but really just bumped it by a couple hundred)

    Well prepare to be shocked.  Here's a republic count: 3,545

    Here's the youtube video of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghzwSTuVuiI

    I'll count up the empire side next and just edit the post when I get a total.

    Here's the youtube of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fl3ttcTzc

    Empire total: 3,307

    Total on Jedi Covenant: 6,852

    Let's be nice and estimate the 8 US servers only have 6,000 players on each one.  That's 48,000 concurrent US players.

  • strangiato2112strangiato2112 Member CommonPosts: 1,538
    Originally posted by Camaro68
    Originally posted by strangiato2112
    Originally posted by Camaro68

    You don't need any software or spreadsheets to do a head count on any SWTOR server.

    In the Who search bar type: 1

    That will tell you how many level 1 players are in the game regardless of zone--in your faction.

    Just go up from there.  When you get to 50, you have to type "Mercenary 50" and on down the line.

    I tried it and was suprised to see that at least on my server the Empire isn't much more populated.  There were 2900 Empire players on vs. 2500 Republic players.  The built up perception was that it was around 2:1 Empire.

    (For the sake of this arguement the server load was listed as Standard at the time)

    most games cap the who command.  for instance, Rift caps it at 29.  So on most servers doing a /who 60 mage wont return the full list, and there is no way to break it down from there.

     

    Also in a game like EQ, using /role or /anon take you off a /who level search.  And enough people use these to make counting accurately impossible.

     

     

    Id be shocked if there really are 5400 concurrent logins in SWTOR.  It would mean they told the truth about the super servers (unlike games like Rift that say they drastically increased capacity but really just bumped it by a couple hundred)

    Well prepare to be shocked.  Here's a republic count: 3,545

    Here's the youtube video of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghzwSTuVuiI

    I'll count up the empire side next and just edit the post when I get a total.

    Here's the youtube of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fl3ttcTzc

    Empire total: 3,307

    Total on Jedi Covenant: 6,852

    Let's be nice and estimate the 8 US servers only have 6,000 players on each one.  That's 48,000 concurrent US players.

    Of course there is no zone where they can all be together, but thats an enormous playerbase per server to draw guilds from.  Easily the biggest server size of the AAA MMORPGs except for EvE.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Member CommonPosts: 10,910


    Originally posted by Camaro68
    Well prepare to be shocked.  Here's a republic count: 3,545Here's the youtube video of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghzwSTuVuiII'll count up the empire side next and just edit the post when I get a total.Here's the youtube of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fl3ttcTzcEmpire total: 3,307Total on Jedi Covenant: 6,852Let's be nice and estimate the 8 US servers only have 6,000 players on each one.  That's 48,000 concurrent US players.

    Any thoughts on taking that from concurrent players to total players?

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • Camaro68Camaro68 Member Posts: 50
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by Camaro68
    Well prepare to be shocked.  Here's a republic count: 3,545

     

    Here's the youtube video of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghzwSTuVuiI

    I'll count up the empire side next and just edit the post when I get a total.

    Here's the youtube of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fl3ttcTzc

    Empire total: 3,307

    Total on Jedi Covenant: 6,852

    Let's be nice and estimate the 8 US servers only have 6,000 players on each one.  That's 48,000 concurrent US players.



    Any thoughts on taking that from concurrent players to total players?

     

    The only reference I have is from years ago.  I was logged into EQ1 and they announced 100k concurrent players on the serverwide.  The line I heard later was they maxed at about 400k subs around that timeframe.

    But who knows what the real number is.

  • Camaro68Camaro68 Member Posts: 50
    Originally posted by Pivotelite
    Originally posted by Jonnas13

    8 people have walked past my window in the last hour. From that I can deduce that the town I live in has 55k population. The facts prove it!

    Sadly this is more likely to be accurate than the usual x-fire numbers and MMO population bullshit.

    Trying to take a tiny sample of a skewed pool and applying to a broad spectrum is inherantly flawed.

     Based on hours played from most populated to least it goes...

     

    WoW, GW2, SW:TOR, Aion, EvE, TSW, Rift, TERA then like 50 dead MMOs after that.

     

    That seems pretty accurate to me... it gives a general idea, a pretty good one for the most part IMO. It always has shown trands, when a game is gaining players or losing players. Every event GW2s numbers shoot up, F2P SWTORs shot up, B2P TSWs shot up. And they all remain in a realistic position based on their playersbase relative to the other MMOs.

     

    One interesting fact about xfire players from yesterday, January 7th:

    World of Warcraft

    Average play session: 5.19 hours

    SWTOR

    Average play session: 5.12 hours

    GW2

    Average play session: 4.12 hours

     

    The only editorial conclusion I can make is these xfires are hardcore gamers.  We're not looking at grandmas logging in for some PVP in between knitting blankets.

    It's also interesting that the big bad soulless corporate behemoths, WoW and SWTOR, are keeping gamers engrossed a full hour longer than GW2 does. 

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Member CommonPosts: 10,910


    Originally posted by Camaro68

    Originally posted by Pivotelite

    Originally posted by Jonnas13 8 people have walked past my window in the last hour. From that I can deduce that the town I live in has 55k population. The facts prove it! Sadly this is more likely to be accurate than the usual x-fire numbers and MMO population bullshit. Trying to take a tiny sample of a skewed pool and applying to a broad spectrum is inherantly flawed.
     Based on hours played from most populated to least it goes...   WoW, GW2, SW:TOR, Aion, EvE, TSW, Rift, TERA then like 50 dead MMOs after that.   That seems pretty accurate to me... it gives a general idea, a pretty good one for the most part IMO. It always has shown trands, when a game is gaining players or losing players. Every event GW2s numbers shoot up, F2P SWTORs shot up, B2P TSWs shot up. And they all remain in a realistic position based on their playersbase relative to the other MMOs.
     

    One interesting fact about xfire players from yesterday, January 7th:

    World of Warcraft

    Average play session: 5.19 hours

    SWTOR

    Average play session: 5.12 hours

    GW2

    Average play session: 4.12 hours

     

    The only editorial conclusion I can make is these xfires are hardcore gamers.  We're not looking at grandmas logging in for some PVP in between knitting blankets.

    It's also interesting that the big bad soulless corporate behemoths, WoW and SWTOR, are keeping gamers engrossed a full hour longer than GW2 does. 



    I don't think anyone here is worried about the hours played per player. Which is odd, because it seems like just as valid a way to compare games as anything else you would get out of Xfire.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • strangiato2112strangiato2112 Member CommonPosts: 1,538
    so what happened to the guy with his "nearly as smart" friend that was going to post some research for us?
  • strangiato2112strangiato2112 Member CommonPosts: 1,538
    Originally posted by Camaro68
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by Camaro68
    Well prepare to be shocked.  Here's a republic count: 3,545

     

    Here's the youtube video of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghzwSTuVuiI

    I'll count up the empire side next and just edit the post when I get a total.

    Here's the youtube of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fl3ttcTzc

    Empire total: 3,307

    Total on Jedi Covenant: 6,852

    Let's be nice and estimate the 8 US servers only have 6,000 players on each one.  That's 48,000 concurrent US players.



    Any thoughts on taking that from concurrent players to total players?

     

    The only reference I have is from years ago.  I was logged into EQ1 and they announced 100k concurrent players on the serverwide.  The line I heard later was they maxed at about 400k subs around that timeframe.

    But who knows what the real number is.

    I think that around 4-5x peak concurrent users is about right, I remember EvE topping 60k with 300k subs

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Member CommonPosts: 10,910


    Originally posted by strangiato2112
    so what happened to the guy with his "nearly as smart" friend that was going to post some research for us?

    We are still waiting.

    I am curious to know how they got from concurrent players to total players in all those different games. I'm reasonably sure that the ratio of concurrent players to total players falls over time as a game ages. I don't think it would be a constant value. I'm also very curious at how long the "sampling" took, and how many different servers per game were sampled to arrive at the concurrent player numbers. Just call me Curious George if you want.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • YamotaYamota Member UncommonPosts: 6,593
    TERA is showing a big bump which is most likely due to the 7 days reactivation of accounts. Let's see if it lasts until the game goes F2P in a month or so.
  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 11,004
    Originally posted by strangiato2112
    Originally posted by Camaro68
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by Camaro68
    Well prepare to be shocked.  Here's a republic count: 3,545

     

    Here's the youtube video of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghzwSTuVuiI

    I'll count up the empire side next and just edit the post when I get a total.

    Here's the youtube of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fl3ttcTzc

    Empire total: 3,307

    Total on Jedi Covenant: 6,852

    Let's be nice and estimate the 8 US servers only have 6,000 players on each one.  That's 48,000 concurrent US players.



    Any thoughts on taking that from concurrent players to total players?

     

    The only reference I have is from years ago.  I was logged into EQ1 and they announced 100k concurrent players on the serverwide.  The line I heard later was they maxed at about 400k subs around that timeframe.

    But who knows what the real number is.

    I think that around 4-5x peak concurrent users is about right, I remember EvE topping 60k with 300k subs

    concurrent users on Eve, top was about 50 - 52k with an overall sub base of between 350k - 400k.  image

  • Camaro68Camaro68 Member Posts: 50

    XFire got a little more interesting now that Anet claims GW2 sold 3 million copies.

    It says GW2 has 3255 players on per day.  Is that an average?  I don't know how they arrive at that number.

    For SWTOR it shows 1488 players per day.

     

    Either way it looks like GW2 players have left in droves or SWTOR has more players than alot of people think.

  • Camaro68Camaro68 Member Posts: 50

    Let's say GW2 only has a 20% retention rate of the 3 million copies sold. 

    Sounds kinda pathetic for such a hyped game but that still means they've got 600,000 active players.

    Going by xfire, 1488 users for SWTOR and 3255 for GW2,  puts SWTOR at 45% of GW2's active players.

    45% of 600,000 is 270,000.

  • KhebelnKhebeln Member UncommonPosts: 794

    I play mmos since meridian 59, thats like 15 years. Played almost every AAA mmo, clearing the endgame. And never used Xfire. Almost no one i know uses it and i run a gaming community for 10 years.

    You obviously underestimate the real hardcore playerbase that done bother with usless toys like that.

    image
    (Retired)- Anarchy Online/Ultima Online/DAoC/Horizonsz/EQ2/SWG/AC1&2/L2/SoR/WoW/TMO/Requiem/Atlantica Online/Manibogi/Rift+(SL)/Lol/Hon/SWTOR/Wakfu/Champions Online/GW/Lotr/CO/TcoS/Tabula Rasa/Meridian 59/Vanguard/Shadowbane/Fury/SotW/Dreamlords/HGL/RoM/DDO/FFXI/Aoc/Eve/Warhammer Online/Gw2/TSW/Tera/Defiance/STO/AoW/DE/Firefall/Darkfall/Neverwinter/PS2/ESO/FF14/Archeage/Gw2

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