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XFire - As MMO population estimation tool

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Comments

  • TheCrow2kTheCrow2k Adelaide, AKPosts: 953Member
    Sorry OP but your base data collection Method is flawed. Not everyone uses xfire and I daresay for example that casual gamers wouldn't even know what it was let alone use it. As a result any game that has a lot of casual players is being misrepresented in your base data & this is just one example.
  • gamesrfungamesrfun Red Deer, ABPosts: 127Member
    Originally posted by strangiato2112
    Originally posted by gamesrfun

    Thats because the people that want to use X-Fire ARE DOING IT WRONG.

    You want to use it as a tool?  Figure out how.  Answer my challenge from a page or two back, or at least discuss *how* we can use x-fire given its limitations.  Its clear that the OP's xfire factor is useless rubbish.  So figure out a way to incorporate different factors besides raw users.   Fiigure out *why* a higher percentage of EvE users use xfire than Rift, and a higher percentage of rift users use XFire than EQ1.  Once we can do that we can discuss xfire is a player measure.

    I just answered it.

    Or is someone going to argue against demonstrated correlation today?  Be my guest.

    So where is this regression formula then?  You are saying you came up with a formula where some coeeficient times number of xfire users plus an offset comes with an accurate representation of users?  Im calling BS until you post the formula and we can test it vs common sense. (common sense tells us that 738 users for Eve vs 30 users for EQ2 shows there are other factors at play)

    I already gave you the formula.  Simple Regression/least squares.

    I didn't invent linear regression lol.  Try Stats 101.

    And no, you don't get a "common sense" pass.  If you are anti-statistics, then you are not allowed to participate.  I don't let Creationists debate on my newsgroup either.

  • PurutzilPurutzil East Stroudsburg, PAPosts: 2,924Member Uncommon

    XFire, much like any polling device, is not going to be an accurate device to rate how many people play compared to actual hard numbers given from the game company with actual number charts giving the exact data needed.

    Case in point, say I have a room with 100 people. Left will be the full population while the right will be Xfire, with people in Xfire playing counting towards the 100 total.

     

    XFire Bias

      Total People XFire Users
    # Available 100 20
    Play Game 35 15
    % Playing 35% 75%

     

    XFire Unpopular

      Total People XFire Users
    # Available 100 20
    Play Game 60 5
    % Playing 60% 25%

     

     

    As you can see, the % difference can be vastly different as the poll of players vary greatly as more users might play on Xfire while the very same can happen were fewer use XFire but might play overall. That being said, it can 'possibly' be used to pick up trends in when population increases in a game, but those types of trends can easily be pointed out without numbers, relying instead upon patches and other factors to expose the cause.

    XFire is NOT a good way to judge a game's population. Unless the game is able to somehow manage to have an Equal % based representation with the total population (a feat which would be incredibly difficult to pull off) its just not going to stand a chance at being able to be a valid tool to judge anything outside possibly the influx of players at a certain time.

     

  • gamesrfungamesrfun Red Deer, ABPosts: 127Member
    Originally posted by Purutzil

    XFire, much like any polling device, is not going to be an accurate device to rate how many people play compared to actual hard numbers given from the game company with actual number charts giving the exact data needed.

    Case in point, say I have a room with 100 people. Left will be the full population while the right will be Xfire, with people in Xfire playing counting towards the 100 total.

     

    XFire Bias

      Total People XFire Users
    # Available 100 20
    Play Game 35 15
    % Playing 35% 75%

     

    XFire Unpopular

      Total People XFire Users
    # Available 100 20
    Play Game 60 5
    % Playing 60% 25%

     

     

    As you can see, the % difference can be vastly different as the poll of players vary greatly as more users might play on Xfire while the very same can happen were fewer use XFire but might play overall. That being said, it can 'possibly' be used to pick up trends in when population increases in a game, but those types of trends can easily be pointed out without numbers, relying instead upon patches and other factors to expose the cause.

    XFire is NOT a good way to judge a game's population. Unless the game is able to somehow manage to have an Equal % based representation with the total population (a feat which would be incredibly difficult to pull off) its just not going to stand a chance at being able to be a valid tool to judge anything outside possibly the influx of players at a certain time.

     

    Okay this is why people without stats backgrounds should not be allowed to post here.  Can't we have a meritocracy on at least one topic? 

     

    Please? 

    If XFire correlates to the population of 10-15 games (which it does) it is highly likely that it is a correlate for all games.  Perhaps there are a few examples where it does not.  But it has proven to be a very good analyzer of game populations.

  • strangiato2112strangiato2112 Richmond, VAPosts: 1,538Member Common
    Originally posted by gamesrfun
    Originally posted by strangiato2112
    Originally posted by gamesrfun

    Thats because the people that want to use X-Fire ARE DOING IT WRONG.

    You want to use it as a tool?  Figure out how.  Answer my challenge from a page or two back, or at least discuss *how* we can use x-fire given its limitations.  Its clear that the OP's xfire factor is useless rubbish.  So figure out a way to incorporate different factors besides raw users.   Fiigure out *why* a higher percentage of EvE users use xfire than Rift, and a higher percentage of rift users use XFire than EQ1.  Once we can do that we can discuss xfire is a player measure.

    I just answered it.

    Or is someone going to argue against demonstrated correlation today?  Be my guest.

    So where is this regression formula then?  You are saying you came up with a formula where some coeeficient times number of xfire users plus an offset comes with an accurate representation of users?  Im calling BS until you post the formula and we can test it vs common sense. (common sense tells us that 738 users for Eve vs 30 users for EQ2 shows there are other factors at play)

    I already gave you the formula.  Simple Regression/least squares.

    I didn't invent linear regression lol.  Try Stats 101.

    And no, you don't get a "common sense" pass.  If you are anti-statistics, then you are not allowed to participate.  I don't let Creationists debate on my newsgroup either.

    You did NOT give a formula.  What is the regression formula?  I know how to do a linear regression.  But you have failed to give the results, or the numbers even used in the regression.   Anyone can say their friend did a study.  But thats worthless without the actual details of said study.

  • LetsinodLetsinod Ramsey, MNPosts: 334Member Common

    This thread happened to pop up on the front page so I clicked into it.  Do people still use Xfire anymore?  Everyone I know uses Raptr if you want that sort of thing.  Still tracks everything and you can import anything you need.    It really is way better.  

     

    Xfire has one game left over 100k hours this week

    Raptr has 10 games with 100k hours this week; 4 of them with 250k +.  

     

    Don't know why anyone would use Xfire for trends with such a small sampling.

  • Camaro68Camaro68 Daytona, FLPosts: 50Member
    Originally posted by Letsinod

    This thread happened to pop up on the front page so I clicked into it.  Do people still use Xfire anymore?  Everyone I know uses Raptr if you want that sort of thing.  Still tracks everything and you can import anything you need.    It really is way better.  

     

    Xfire has one game left over 100k hours this week

    Raptr has 10 games with 100k hours this week; 4 of them with 250k +.  

     

    Don't know why anyone would use Xfire for trends with such a small sampling.

    Raptr shows Rift with nearly double the traffic of Guild Wars 2 this past month.  GW2 may have flopped hard but I seriously doubt Rift is anywhere near as popular as GW2 right now.  You might as well throw Raptr out of the discussion.

    The only thing(assuming it hasn't been promoted by certain games and thus skewing the numbers) it's good for is showing that sampling isn't always as accurate as one source(xfire) might suggest.

    I did a head count on SWTOR Monday and came up with about 50,000 concurrent users between US and Europe.  xfire said Monday was a relatively light day for SWTOR.  Made me kinda doubt xfire's findings.

  • strangiato2112strangiato2112 Richmond, VAPosts: 1,538Member Common
    Originally posted by Camaro68
    Originally posted by Letsinod

    This thread happened to pop up on the front page so I clicked into it.  Do people still use Xfire anymore?  Everyone I know uses Raptr if you want that sort of thing.  Still tracks everything and you can import anything you need.    It really is way better.  

     

    Xfire has one game left over 100k hours this week

    Raptr has 10 games with 100k hours this week; 4 of them with 250k +.  

     

    Don't know why anyone would use Xfire for trends with such a small sampling.

    Raptr shows Rift with nearly double the traffic of Guild Wars 2 this past month.  GW2 may have flopped hard but I seriously doubt Rift is anywhere near as popular as GW2 right now.  You might as well throw Raptr out of the discussion.

     

    Rift just did a huge promotion with Raptr

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by gamesrfun
    Okay this is why people without stats backgrounds should not be allowed to post here.  Can't we have a meritocracy on at least one topic? 

     

    Please? 

    If XFire correlates to the population of 10-15 games (which it does) it is highly likely that it is a correlate for all games.  Perhaps there are a few examples where it does not.  But it has proven to be a very good analyzer of game populations.



    You have not shown anything. You have typed up a lot of words, but you have provided no information. Yamota started this thread with good intent, and in the guise of 'helping', you are pushing it away from anyone following through with Yamota's goal.

    But since you're asking about meritocracy, let's get into your post. You did not show that XFire is valid, you showed that XFire requires additional information to point to a valid number. The second problem is that there is a host of public information showing that XFire does not correlate to game populations consistently. Which makes sense, since if it correlated with anything it would be concurrent players. Except it doesn't even do that (look at Eve's concurrent players for reference). There's no point in going over the math in your original post because there isn't any math.

    ** edit **

    Did you even read your post? "Top 20 MMOs"? Really? You determined the actual population of 20 MMOs separate from XFire? This I would love to see.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • gamesrfungamesrfun Red Deer, ABPosts: 127Member

    I contacted my friend in WoW:  he is going to send me the excel sheet tonight.

    I will then repost the data and you will quickly see how reliable XFire is when it comes to population estimation within a game (not between games).

     

  • VengeSunsoarVengeSunsoar Posts: 5,316Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by gamesrfun

    I contacted my friend in WoW:  he is going to send me the excel sheet tonight.

    I will then repost the data and you will quickly see how reliable XFire is when it comes to population estimation within a game (not between games).

     

    The data will be interesting to be sure, however how will it verify an ingame's population?  What is the comparison?  We will allready need to know the ingame population over several time periods in order to compare the data. 

    Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  • gamesrfungamesrfun Red Deer, ABPosts: 127Member
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    Originally posted by gamesrfun

    I contacted my friend in WoW:  he is going to send me the excel sheet tonight.

    I will then repost the data and you will quickly see how reliable XFire is when it comes to population estimation within a game (not between games).

     

    The data will be interesting to be sure, however how will it verify an ingame's population?  What is the comparison?  We will allready need to know the ingame population over several time periods in order to compare the data. 

    The data was pulled from various sources:

    From what I have at home this is what I saw (I'm at work atm)

    AoC (pulled from investor relations information)

    DaoC (pulled from the server statistics on the camelotherald)

    EVE: (freely available)

    Warhammer (upon its release, various server parses)

    Rift (server parses)

    WoW:  (server parsing)

    SWTOR: (server parsing, investor relations information)

    The Secret World (investor relations (new!)

    Darkfall (I have no clue, no information provided, I can leave this one out of people wish)

    D&D online (server parse, f2p+)

    LoTR (server parse, f2p+)

    Aion (server parse)

    Allods Online (server parse)

    Runes of Magic (server parse)

    Tera (server parse)

    That's all I can remember, but there were 20 data points, so I'm missing a few. 

     

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by gamesrfun
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar Originally posted by gamesrfun I contacted my friend in WoW:  he is going to send me the excel sheet tonight. I will then repost the data and you will quickly see how reliable XFire is when it comes to population estimation within a game (not between games).  
    The data will be interesting to be sure, however how will it verify an ingame's population?  What is the comparison?  We will allready need to know the ingame population over several time periods in order to compare the data. 
    The data was pulled from various sources:

    From what I have at home this is what I saw (I'm at work atm)

    AoC (pulled from investor relations information)

    DaoC (pulled from the server statistics on the camelotherald)

    EVE: (freely available)

    Warhammer (upon its release, various server parses)

    Rift (server parses)

    WoW:  (server parsing)

    SWTOR: (server parsing, investor relations information)

    The Secret World (investor relations (new!)

    Darkfall (I have no clue, no information provided, I can leave this one out of people wish)

    D&D online (server parse, f2p+)

    LoTR (server parse, f2p+)

    Aion (server parse)

    Allods Online (server parse)

    Runes of Magic (server parse)

    Tera (server parse)

    That's all I can remember, but there were 20 data points, so I'm missing a few. 

     




    What is a "server parse"?

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • zymurgeistzymurgeist Pittsville, VAPosts: 5,213Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by gamesrfun

    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar

    Originally posted by gamesrfun I contacted my friend in WoW:  he is going to send me the excel sheet tonight. I will then repost the data and you will quickly see how reliable XFire is when it comes to population estimation within a game (not between games).  
    The data will be interesting to be sure, however how will it verify an ingame's population?  What is the comparison?  We will allready need to know the ingame population over several time periods in order to compare the data. 
    The data was pulled from various sources:

     

    From what I have at home this is what I saw (I'm at work atm)

    AoC (pulled from investor relations information)

    DaoC (pulled from the server statistics on the camelotherald)

    EVE: (freely available)

    Warhammer (upon its release, various server parses)

    Rift (server parses)

    WoW:  (server parsing)

    SWTOR: (server parsing, investor relations information)

    The Secret World (investor relations (new!)

    Darkfall (I have no clue, no information provided, I can leave this one out of people wish)

    D&D online (server parse, f2p+)

    LoTR (server parse, f2p+)

    Aion (server parse)

    Allods Online (server parse)

    Runes of Magic (server parse)

    Tera (server parse)

    That's all I can remember, but there were 20 data points, so I'm missing a few. 

     



    What is a "server parse"?

     

     It's where someone tried to count the ever changing number of concurrent users assuming it's constant during the count and representative of population. In short it's useless.

    "Strong and bitter words indicate a weak cause" ~Victor Hugo

  • gamesrfungamesrfun Red Deer, ABPosts: 127Member
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by gamesrfun

    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar

    Originally posted by gamesrfun I contacted my friend in WoW:  he is going to send me the excel sheet tonight. I will then repost the data and you will quickly see how reliable XFire is when it comes to population estimation within a game (not between games).  
    The data will be interesting to be sure, however how will it verify an ingame's population?  What is the comparison?  We will allready need to know the ingame population over several time periods in order to compare the data. 
    The data was pulled from various sources:

     

    From what I have at home this is what I saw (I'm at work atm)

    AoC (pulled from investor relations information)

    DaoC (pulled from the server statistics on the camelotherald)

    EVE: (freely available)

    Warhammer (upon its release, various server parses)

    Rift (server parses)

    WoW:  (server parsing)

    SWTOR: (server parsing, investor relations information)

    The Secret World (investor relations (new!)

    Darkfall (I have no clue, no information provided, I can leave this one out of people wish)

    D&D online (server parse, f2p+)

    LoTR (server parse, f2p+)

    Aion (server parse)

    Allods Online (server parse)

    Runes of Magic (server parse)

    Tera (server parse)

    That's all I can remember, but there were 20 data points, so I'm missing a few. 

     



    What is a "server parse"?

     

    Log onto the server.  Check the server population.  If there are two factions (or more), make a character there and pull the population at a set point in time. 

    I can get more info on each parse, but given the fact that this guy is nearly as smart as I am, I would imagine he considered things like server merges, anon characters, parse limits within games, time consistency, etc. etc.

  • SukiyakiSukiyaki GreenwichPosts: 1,398Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by gamesrfun

    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar

    Originally posted by gamesrfun I contacted my friend in WoW:  he is going to send me the excel sheet tonight. I will then repost the data and you will quickly see how reliable XFire is when it comes to population estimation within a game (not between games).  
    The data will be interesting to be sure, however how will it verify an ingame's population?  What is the comparison?  We will allready need to know the ingame population over several time periods in order to compare the data. 
    The data was pulled from various sources:

     

    From what I have at home this is what I saw (I'm at work atm)

    AoC (pulled from investor relations information)

    DaoC (pulled from the server statistics on the camelotherald)

    EVE: (freely available)

    Warhammer (upon its release, various server parses)

    Rift (server parses)

    WoW:  (server parsing)

    SWTOR: (server parsing, investor relations information)

    The Secret World (investor relations (new!)

    Darkfall (I have no clue, no information provided, I can leave this one out of people wish)

    D&D online (server parse, f2p+)

    LoTR (server parse, f2p+)

    Aion (server parse)

    Allods Online (server parse)

    Runes of Magic (server parse)

    Tera (server parse)

    That's all I can remember, but there were 20 data points, so I'm missing a few. 

     



    What is a "server parse"?

     

    Parsing in this context refers to automatic scanning of playeractivity through search windows/tabs of games.

    Its a method people use mainly just in WoW to track online activity through the /who list. Basically they search for peoples levels, classes and other filter automatically and just log anyone who is online. Since its done automatically its pretty quick ranging from 1-10 minutes and can be treated as a single moment measurement. In most of the listed games this parsing however is not even possible as they do not have addons alowed like WoW, nor have almost unrestricted player search functions as those in WoW, but mostly the searchlists if any available at all,  are limited to the current zone and/or have limited results and limited or no search filter at all. Its next to impossible to manually track even just one server in some games, then from every game of that list, leave alone every or several of their server to get some decent sample at least, and then repeat that over length of months. Of course these technical limitations throughout almost all those games can not stop the power of imagination and made up stories. The only limit of the story is how fast you can fabricate some numbers for a made up excel datasheet with all the results of this in practise impossible  "parsing" of the top games.

    We are just back at the usual "Oh it got proven accurate before...according to me...proof its accurate!" "It was always accurate according to my undisclosed accuarate predictions and calculations...I can verify by me, my imaginary friend and myself! Screw your public contrary evidence"  "Did I mention I have an internt degree in mathemagics? Therefore my unexplained claims are correct"  "Here some arbitrary single unrelated and at best anecdotal datapoints everyone knows already, mixed into my assumptions and uneducated estimations! These facts  prove my point. Do the math yourself!" Just in a more elaborated act than usual.

     

    PS: I want a stickied thread then to "discuss" how much WoW damaged and dragged down the quality and soul of the MMORPG genre and the playercommunity as well over the last decade,  without anyone permitted to "derail" it or go "off topic" by disagreeing or even doubting the premisses of the "discussion".

  • SerenesSerenes johnson city, TNPosts: 352Member
    Statistic/Business majors would facepalm at most of this.
  • kostoslavkostoslav somborPosts: 459Member
    Few of my friends started using x- fire just for LoL. They use voice chat in x-fire to talk with ppl they met in game.
  • strangiato2112strangiato2112 Richmond, VAPosts: 1,538Member Common
    Originally posted by zymurgeist
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    What is a "server parse"?

     

     It's where someone tried to count the ever changing number of concurrent users assuming it's constant during the count and representative of population. In short it's useless.

    Actually server parses are more useful than xfire and probably the best tool we have.

    But yes, there are a ton of factors.  Many games /anon and /role dont show up on a parse.  Many games are flat out unparseable because of no way to break down the max level other than class.  

  • strangiato2112strangiato2112 Richmond, VAPosts: 1,538Member Common
    Originally posted by gamesrfun
    but given the fact that this guy is nearly as smart as I am

    Well, no sense waiting for this "research" then

  • Camaro68Camaro68 Daytona, FLPosts: 50Member

    You don't need any software or spreadsheets to do a head count on any SWTOR server.

    In the Who search bar type: 1

    That will tell you how many level 1 players are in the game regardless of zone--in your faction.

    Just go up from there.  When you get to 50, you have to type "Mercenary 50" and on down the line.

    I tried it and was suprised to see that at least on my server the Empire isn't much more populated.  There were 2900 Empire players on vs. 2500 Republic players.  The built up perception was that it was around 2:1 Empire.

    (For the sake of this arguement the server load was listed as Standard at the time)

  • madazzmadazz A town, ONPosts: 1,564Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Sukiyaki

     

    PS: I want a stickied thread then to "discuss" how much WoW damaged and dragged down the quality and soul of the MMORPG genre and the playercommunity as well over the last decade,  without anyone permitted to "derail" it or go "off topic" by disagreeing or even doubting the premisses of the "discussion".

    While I have nothing against WoW, and I would actually be quicker to blame developers, I approve of this message! 

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Camaro68
    You don't need any software or spreadsheets to do a head count on any SWTOR server.In the Who search bar type: 1That will tell you how many level 1 players are in the game regardless of zone--in your faction.Just go up from there.  When you get to 50, you have to type "Mercenary 50" and on down the line.I tried it and was suprised to see that at least on my server the Empire isn't much more populated.  There were 2900 Empire players on vs. 2500 Republic players.  The built up perception was that it was around 2:1 Empire.(For the sake of this arguement the server load was listed as Standard at the time)

    How long did this parse take you to complete?

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • strangiato2112strangiato2112 Richmond, VAPosts: 1,538Member Common
    Originally posted by Camaro68

    You don't need any software or spreadsheets to do a head count on any SWTOR server.

    In the Who search bar type: 1

    That will tell you how many level 1 players are in the game regardless of zone--in your faction.

    Just go up from there.  When you get to 50, you have to type "Mercenary 50" and on down the line.

    I tried it and was suprised to see that at least on my server the Empire isn't much more populated.  There were 2900 Empire players on vs. 2500 Republic players.  The built up perception was that it was around 2:1 Empire.

    (For the sake of this arguement the server load was listed as Standard at the time)

    most games cap the who command.  for instance, Rift caps it at 29.  So on most servers doing a /who 60 mage wont return the full list, and there is no way to break it down from there.

     

    Also in a game like EQ, using /role or /anon take you off a /who level search.  And enough people use these to make counting accurately impossible.

     

     

    Id be shocked if there really are 5400 concurrent logins in SWTOR.  It would mean they told the truth about the super servers (unlike games like Rift that say they drastically increased capacity but really just bumped it by a couple hundred)

  • Camaro68Camaro68 Daytona, FLPosts: 50Member
    Originally posted by strangiato2112
    Originally posted by Camaro68

    You don't need any software or spreadsheets to do a head count on any SWTOR server.

    In the Who search bar type: 1

    That will tell you how many level 1 players are in the game regardless of zone--in your faction.

    Just go up from there.  When you get to 50, you have to type "Mercenary 50" and on down the line.

    I tried it and was suprised to see that at least on my server the Empire isn't much more populated.  There were 2900 Empire players on vs. 2500 Republic players.  The built up perception was that it was around 2:1 Empire.

    (For the sake of this arguement the server load was listed as Standard at the time)

    most games cap the who command.  for instance, Rift caps it at 29.  So on most servers doing a /who 60 mage wont return the full list, and there is no way to break it down from there.

     

    Also in a game like EQ, using /role or /anon take you off a /who level search.  And enough people use these to make counting accurately impossible.

     

     

    Id be shocked if there really are 5400 concurrent logins in SWTOR.  It would mean they told the truth about the super servers (unlike games like Rift that say they drastically increased capacity but really just bumped it by a couple hundred)

    Well prepare to be shocked.  Here's a republic count: 3,545

    Here's the youtube video of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghzwSTuVuiI

    I'll count up the empire side next and just edit the post when I get a total.

    Here's the youtube of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fl3ttcTzc

    Empire total: 3,307

    Total on Jedi Covenant: 6,852

    Let's be nice and estimate the 8 US servers only have 6,000 players on each one.  That's 48,000 concurrent US players.

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