Why? The games are played on a world market. Eve, WoW, Swtor, Ryzom... are both played on US Europe and many parts of Asia. In each game the subscription price varies per region according to the rules and customs of that region.
Some countries in EU don't pay $15 dollars per month. Why does it matter what they pay, as long as they pay and the rates are about the same for each game?
Because paying for one hour in a month is not nearly the same as paying for the entire month regardless of time played. Yet they get counted as equal. Eventually you'll understand the point I'm making. But I won't try again.
It's a mediocre tool for telling long term gross population trends up, down or fairly stable. However it's useless for determining rate of change or providing population estimates. MMOs almost always trend down over time aside from a short term resurgance when business model changes or new content is released. It's not going to tell you anything you shouldn't already know.
So I assume you have some examples of where XFire trends were way off the mark ?
SWTOR divebombed on XFire and in real population numbers. Other games like LOTRO and Rift have been fairly steady. LOTRO and SWTOR also showed population increases after going F2P. It also verified the rapid decline of D3 populations.It's not like XFire trends the same for every MMO.
I've yet to see an example of XFire being completely off base with a game that started off with lots of people and then lost a ton of them. Yet people cry every time their game shows major population decreases on XFire.Again, this is really only useful for games that were in the top 10 at some point. The margin of error for the low pop games makes it trickier and it's not like anyone disputes that those games have population issues anyway.
If you would like examples where it was way off you need only wade through this thread, and the dozens of other threads that preceeded it. Like I said it shows direction not magnitude. There are no reliable D3 population numbers. There never have been. Blizzard has never released any population numbers because there is no subscription and they don't matter. Long term Xfire trends are the same for almost all MMOs. Over time they go down unless there is new content or a change in business model. I've never seen proof of Xfire predicting actual MMO population within 10-50 thousand players. That's a huge margin of error. People can't just fudge up numbers and claim they are true you have to prove it. That is their burden not mine.
There are reliable D3 numbers. It's related to the number of public games you see up.
So how many people play D3 a day based on the number of public games now...... or now......... or now? Your assertion is nonsense. You can't have a rational discussion of the efficacy of xfire in predicting MMO populations because there is insufficient reliable data. If you can provide a month of accurate daily numbers for ten MMOs and compare them to Xfire numbers you might have something. You cannot.
Fewer public games, more and more people on peoples friends list gone for good, Blizzard trying to hack fixes to their broken endgame, there are a multitude of indicators. Feel free to ignore them all if you'd like.
Why? The games are played on a world market. Eve, WoW, Swtor, Ryzom... are both played on US Europe and many parts of Asia. In each game the subscription price varies per region according to the rules and customs of that region.
Some countries in EU don't pay $15 dollars per month. Why does it matter what they pay, as long as they pay and the rates are about the same for each game?
Because paying for one hour in a month is not nearly the same as paying for the entire month regardless of time played. Yet they get counted as equal. Eventually you'll understand the point I'm making. But I won't try again.
I understand I just dont' agree.
The other games are subject to that same rule and are still on X-fire. Therefore since the games are played in the same region for the same amount, that is not a factor that is usefull in determining a population.
It's a non significant variable and therefore completely moot when discussing whehter x-fire is a valid tool or not. Where they are played, or how they pay as long a they played in the same regions and the people in that region pay the same amount makes it moot.
Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it is bad.
Last year a friend of mine (MMO friend only) demonstrated with as much precision as possible that XFire was an accurate correlator of intraMMO populations: both in terms of those logged in and those subscribed.
The methodology was simple: A script pulled all XFire numbers over a period of 3 years for the top 20 MMOs that were out there.
Data was then assembled from separate posts that measured in-game populations from within the game.
Data was also gathered from companies that trade publicly and released subscription numbers, or from where subscription numbers could be directly calculated.
Ratios were calculated. Simple regression, least squares, was applied.
The result? R2 was .88.
So you can hazard guesses until the cows come home as to why it is correlated. But anyone with a statistics background who ALSO has a bit of common sense could likely figure out that SHOCKER...Xfire populations are a representative sample of a game's playerbase in so far as likelihood to play and subscribe is concerned. It does not matter if you get more hardcore gamers, it just so happens, fortuitously, that they tend to quit games as much as your less hardcore non x-fire gamer does.
Or at least, good enough to sneak out a .88 R2.
Cheers,
RexTerra aka Loicenick aka Leaky the Leviathan aka Litigator
I'll be honest, this thread is pointless. This is exactly what the moderators want to avoid. It's like arguing over religion or politics to some. Nobody wants to debate the efficacy of XFire.
The problem I have is that this site doesn't allow for people that see value the XFire numbers to do so without being derailed or flamed by people that claim XFire numbers are useless. The mods here refuse to just punish the derailers and trolls. There's no reason that each game can't have an XFire thread that is free from trolls and XFire deniers. They don't want to deal with moderating it, even though many of us see value in XFire numbers and appreciate people keeping long term track of them. As XFire seems to only display them for a brief period of time.
There is literally no safe way to discuss population numbers here if they aren't sourced by publisher propaganda.
Thats because the people that want to use X-Fire ARE DOING IT WRONG.
You want to use it as a tool? Figure out how. Answer my challenge from a page or two back, or at least discuss *how* we can use x-fire given its limitations. Its clear that the OP's xfire factor is useless rubbish. So figure out a way to incorporate different factors besides raw users. Fiigure out *why* a higher percentage of EvE users use xfire than Rift, and a higher percentage of rift users use XFire than EQ1. Once we can do that we can discuss xfire is a player measure.
Thats because the people that want to use X-Fire ARE DOING IT WRONG.
You want to use it as a tool? Figure out how. Answer my challenge from a page or two back, or at least discuss *how* we can use x-fire given its limitations. Its clear that the OP's xfire factor is useless rubbish. So figure out a way to incorporate different factors besides raw users. Fiigure out *why* a higher percentage of EvE users use xfire than Rift, and a higher percentage of rift users use XFire than EQ1. Once we can do that we can discuss xfire is a player measure.
I just answered it.
Or is someone going to argue against demonstrated correlation today? Be my guest.
Thats because the people that want to use X-Fire ARE DOING IT WRONG.
You want to use it as a tool? Figure out how. Answer my challenge from a page or two back, or at least discuss *how* we can use x-fire given its limitations. Its clear that the OP's xfire factor is useless rubbish. So figure out a way to incorporate different factors besides raw users. Fiigure out *why* a higher percentage of EvE users use xfire than Rift, and a higher percentage of rift users use XFire than EQ1. Once we can do that we can discuss xfire is a player measure.
I just answered it.
Or is someone going to argue against demonstrated correlation today? Be my guest.
You did nothing more than state "My friend did" lol. Thats not really hard to argue against.
Originally posted by gamesrfun Thats because the people that want to use X-Fire ARE DOING IT WRONG. You want to use it as a tool? Figure out how. Answer my challenge from a page or two back, or at least discuss *how* we can use x-fire given its limitations. Its clear that the OP's xfire factor is useless rubbish. So figure out a way to incorporate different factors besides raw users. Fiigure out *why* a higher percentage of EvE users use xfire than Rift, and a higher percentage of rift users use XFire than EQ1. Once we can do that we can discuss xfire is a player measure.
I just answered it.
Or is someone going to argue against demonstrated correlation today? Be my guest.
You didn't answer anything. There's almost no actual information in your post at all.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Thats because the people that want to use X-Fire ARE DOING IT WRONG.
You want to use it as a tool? Figure out how. Answer my challenge from a page or two back, or at least discuss *how* we can use x-fire given its limitations. Its clear that the OP's xfire factor is useless rubbish. So figure out a way to incorporate different factors besides raw users. Fiigure out *why* a higher percentage of EvE users use xfire than Rift, and a higher percentage of rift users use XFire than EQ1. Once we can do that we can discuss xfire is a player measure.
I just answered it.
Or is someone going to argue against demonstrated correlation today? Be my guest.
You did nothing more than state "My friend did" lol. Thats not really hard to argue against.
Do you agree with the argument then? Honestly it is a lot of work to have to pull the data again (from a contact perspective).
But if it is enough to settle this silly debate I'd love to end it: XFire is a sound correlation for in-game player populations and game subscription levels as a whole.
And if someone believes it is not, please provide your argument?
As one of my old profs said, don't give us your conclusions, don't give us your reasoning, don't give us your opinion. Give us the data, we'll decide if it's valid.
Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it is bad.
Thats because the people that want to use X-Fire ARE DOING IT WRONG.
You want to use it as a tool? Figure out how. Answer my challenge from a page or two back, or at least discuss *how* we can use x-fire given its limitations. Its clear that the OP's xfire factor is useless rubbish. So figure out a way to incorporate different factors besides raw users. Fiigure out *why* a higher percentage of EvE users use xfire than Rift, and a higher percentage of rift users use XFire than EQ1. Once we can do that we can discuss xfire is a player measure.
I just answered it.
Or is someone going to argue against demonstrated correlation today? Be my guest.
So where is this regression formula then? You are saying you came up with a formula where some coeeficient times number of xfire users plus an offset comes with an accurate representation of users? Im calling BS until you post the formula and we can test it vs common sense. (common sense tells us that 738 users for Eve vs 30 users for EQ2 shows there are other factors at play)
Thats because the people that want to use X-Fire ARE DOING IT WRONG.
You want to use it as a tool? Figure out how. Answer my challenge from a page or two back, or at least discuss *how* we can use x-fire given its limitations. Its clear that the OP's xfire factor is useless rubbish. So figure out a way to incorporate different factors besides raw users. Fiigure out *why* a higher percentage of EvE users use xfire than Rift, and a higher percentage of rift users use XFire than EQ1. Once we can do that we can discuss xfire is a player measure.
I just answered it.
Or is someone going to argue against demonstrated correlation today? Be my guest.
You did nothing more than state "My friend did" lol. Thats not really hard to argue against.
Do you agree with the argument then? Honestly it is a lot of work to have to pull the data again (from a contact perspective).
But if it is enough to settle this silly debate I'd love to end it: XFire is a sound correlation for in-game player populations and game subscription levels as a whole.
And if someone believes it is not, please provide your argument?
Here's the thing, feel free to do what you wish to do. As it stands I am completely comfortable with my stance on Xfire numbers. I don't feel that they are reliable at all. There are simply to many variables for anyone to use in the way they attempt to use them.
Being comfortable with my stance and you give me no data what so ever and tell me I am supposed to change my point of view because an in game friend of yours at one point convienced you simply doesn't fly.
Sorry OP but your base data collection Method is flawed. Not everyone uses xfire and I daresay for example that casual gamers wouldn't even know what it was let alone use it. As a result any game that has a lot of casual players is being misrepresented in your base data & this is just one example.
Thats because the people that want to use X-Fire ARE DOING IT WRONG.
You want to use it as a tool? Figure out how. Answer my challenge from a page or two back, or at least discuss *how* we can use x-fire given its limitations. Its clear that the OP's xfire factor is useless rubbish. So figure out a way to incorporate different factors besides raw users. Fiigure out *why* a higher percentage of EvE users use xfire than Rift, and a higher percentage of rift users use XFire than EQ1. Once we can do that we can discuss xfire is a player measure.
I just answered it.
Or is someone going to argue against demonstrated correlation today? Be my guest.
So where is this regression formula then? You are saying you came up with a formula where some coeeficient times number of xfire users plus an offset comes with an accurate representation of users? Im calling BS until you post the formula and we can test it vs common sense. (common sense tells us that 738 users for Eve vs 30 users for EQ2 shows there are other factors at play)
I already gave you the formula. Simple Regression/least squares.
I didn't invent linear regression lol. Try Stats 101.
And no, you don't get a "common sense" pass. If you are anti-statistics, then you are not allowed to participate. I don't let Creationists debate on my newsgroup either.
XFire, much like any polling device, is not going to be an accurate device to rate how many people play compared to actual hard numbers given from the game company with actual number charts giving the exact data needed.
Case in point, say I have a room with 100 people. Left will be the full population while the right will be Xfire, with people in Xfire playing counting towards the 100 total.
XFire Bias
Total People
XFire Users
# Available
100
20
Play Game
35
15
% Playing
35%
75%
XFire Unpopular
Total People
XFire Users
# Available
100
20
Play Game
60
5
% Playing
60%
25%
As you can see, the % difference can be vastly different as the poll of players vary greatly as more users might play on Xfire while the very same can happen were fewer use XFire but might play overall. That being said, it can 'possibly' be used to pick up trends in when population increases in a game, but those types of trends can easily be pointed out without numbers, relying instead upon patches and other factors to expose the cause.
XFire is NOT a good way to judge a game's population. Unless the game is able to somehow manage to have an Equal % based representation with the total population (a feat which would be incredibly difficult to pull off) its just not going to stand a chance at being able to be a valid tool to judge anything outside possibly the influx of players at a certain time.
XFire, much like any polling device, is not going to be an accurate device to rate how many people play compared to actual hard numbers given from the game company with actual number charts giving the exact data needed.
Case in point, say I have a room with 100 people. Left will be the full population while the right will be Xfire, with people in Xfire playing counting towards the 100 total.
XFire Bias
Total People
XFire Users
# Available
100
20
Play Game
35
15
% Playing
35%
75%
XFire Unpopular
Total People
XFire Users
# Available
100
20
Play Game
60
5
% Playing
60%
25%
As you can see, the % difference can be vastly different as the poll of players vary greatly as more users might play on Xfire while the very same can happen were fewer use XFire but might play overall. That being said, it can 'possibly' be used to pick up trends in when population increases in a game, but those types of trends can easily be pointed out without numbers, relying instead upon patches and other factors to expose the cause.
XFire is NOT a good way to judge a game's population. Unless the game is able to somehow manage to have an Equal % based representation with the total population (a feat which would be incredibly difficult to pull off) its just not going to stand a chance at being able to be a valid tool to judge anything outside possibly the influx of players at a certain time.
Okay this is why people without stats backgrounds should not be allowed to post here. Can't we have a meritocracy on at least one topic?
Please?
If XFire correlates to the population of 10-15 games (which it does) it is highly likely that it is a correlate for all games. Perhaps there are a few examples where it does not. But it has proven to be a very good analyzer of game populations.
Thats because the people that want to use X-Fire ARE DOING IT WRONG.
You want to use it as a tool? Figure out how. Answer my challenge from a page or two back, or at least discuss *how* we can use x-fire given its limitations. Its clear that the OP's xfire factor is useless rubbish. So figure out a way to incorporate different factors besides raw users. Fiigure out *why* a higher percentage of EvE users use xfire than Rift, and a higher percentage of rift users use XFire than EQ1. Once we can do that we can discuss xfire is a player measure.
I just answered it.
Or is someone going to argue against demonstrated correlation today? Be my guest.
So where is this regression formula then? You are saying you came up with a formula where some coeeficient times number of xfire users plus an offset comes with an accurate representation of users? Im calling BS until you post the formula and we can test it vs common sense. (common sense tells us that 738 users for Eve vs 30 users for EQ2 shows there are other factors at play)
I already gave you the formula. Simple Regression/least squares.
I didn't invent linear regression lol. Try Stats 101.
And no, you don't get a "common sense" pass. If you are anti-statistics, then you are not allowed to participate. I don't let Creationists debate on my newsgroup either.
You did NOT give a formula. What is the regression formula? I know how to do a linear regression. But you have failed to give the results, or the numbers even used in the regression. Anyone can say their friend did a study. But thats worthless without the actual details of said study.
This thread happened to pop up on the front page so I clicked into it. Do people still use Xfire anymore? Everyone I know uses Raptr if you want that sort of thing. Still tracks everything and you can import anything you need. It really is way better.
Xfire has one game left over 100k hours this week
Raptr has 10 games with 100k hours this week; 4 of them with 250k +.
Don't know why anyone would use Xfire for trends with such a small sampling.
This thread happened to pop up on the front page so I clicked into it. Do people still use Xfire anymore? Everyone I know uses Raptr if you want that sort of thing. Still tracks everything and you can import anything you need. It really is way better.
Xfire has one game left over 100k hours this week
Raptr has 10 games with 100k hours this week; 4 of them with 250k +.
Don't know why anyone would use Xfire for trends with such a small sampling.
Raptr shows Rift with nearly double the traffic of Guild Wars 2 this past month. GW2 may have flopped hard but I seriously doubt Rift is anywhere near as popular as GW2 right now. You might as well throw Raptr out of the discussion.
The only thing(assuming it hasn't been promoted by certain games and thus skewing the numbers) it's good for is showing that sampling isn't always as accurate as one source(xfire) might suggest.
I did a head count on SWTOR Monday and came up with about 50,000 concurrent users between US and Europe. xfire said Monday was a relatively light day for SWTOR. Made me kinda doubt xfire's findings.
This thread happened to pop up on the front page so I clicked into it. Do people still use Xfire anymore? Everyone I know uses Raptr if you want that sort of thing. Still tracks everything and you can import anything you need. It really is way better.
Xfire has one game left over 100k hours this week
Raptr has 10 games with 100k hours this week; 4 of them with 250k +.
Don't know why anyone would use Xfire for trends with such a small sampling.
Raptr shows Rift with nearly double the traffic of Guild Wars 2 this past month. GW2 may have flopped hard but I seriously doubt Rift is anywhere near as popular as GW2 right now. You might as well throw Raptr out of the discussion.
Originally posted by gamesrfun Okay this is why people without stats backgrounds should not be allowed to post here. Can't we have a meritocracy on at least one topic?
Please?
If XFire correlates to the population of 10-15 games (which it does) it is highly likely that it is a correlate for all games. Perhaps there are a few examples where it does not. But it has proven to be a very good analyzer of game populations.
You have not shown anything. You have typed up a lot of words, but you have provided no information. Yamota started this thread with good intent, and in the guise of 'helping', you are pushing it away from anyone following through with Yamota's goal.
But since you're asking about meritocracy, let's get into your post. You did not show that XFire is valid, you showed that XFire requires additional information to point to a valid number. The second problem is that there is a host of public information showing that XFire does not correlate to game populations consistently. Which makes sense, since if it correlated with anything it would be concurrent players. Except it doesn't even do that (look at Eve's concurrent players for reference). There's no point in going over the math in your original post because there isn't any math.
** edit **
Did you even read your post? "Top 20 MMOs"? Really? You determined the actual population of 20 MMOs separate from XFire? This I would love to see.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
I contacted my friend in WoW: he is going to send me the excel sheet tonight.
I will then repost the data and you will quickly see how reliable XFire is when it comes to population estimation within a game (not between games).
The data will be interesting to be sure, however how will it verify an ingame's population? What is the comparison? We will allready need to know the ingame population over several time periods in order to compare the data.
Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it is bad.
Comments
Because paying for one hour in a month is not nearly the same as paying for the entire month regardless of time played. Yet they get counted as equal. Eventually you'll understand the point I'm making. But I won't try again.
Fewer public games, more and more people on peoples friends list gone for good, Blizzard trying to hack fixes to their broken endgame, there are a multitude of indicators. Feel free to ignore them all if you'd like.
I understand I just dont' agree.
The other games are subject to that same rule and are still on X-fire. Therefore since the games are played in the same region for the same amount, that is not a factor that is usefull in determining a population.
It's a non significant variable and therefore completely moot when discussing whehter x-fire is a valid tool or not. Where they are played, or how they pay as long a they played in the same regions and the people in that region pay the same amount makes it moot.
Why is this thread the XFire thread?
XFire thread posters should demonstrate at a very minimum .pdf proof of at least one statistics course in university with at least a B average.
Last year a friend of mine (MMO friend only) demonstrated with as much precision as possible that XFire was an accurate correlator of intraMMO populations: both in terms of those logged in and those subscribed.
The methodology was simple: A script pulled all XFire numbers over a period of 3 years for the top 20 MMOs that were out there.
Data was then assembled from separate posts that measured in-game populations from within the game.
Data was also gathered from companies that trade publicly and released subscription numbers, or from where subscription numbers could be directly calculated.
Ratios were calculated. Simple regression, least squares, was applied.
The result? R2 was .88.
So you can hazard guesses until the cows come home as to why it is correlated. But anyone with a statistics background who ALSO has a bit of common sense could likely figure out that SHOCKER...Xfire populations are a representative sample of a game's playerbase in so far as likelihood to play and subscribe is concerned. It does not matter if you get more hardcore gamers, it just so happens, fortuitously, that they tend to quit games as much as your less hardcore non x-fire gamer does.
Or at least, good enough to sneak out a .88 R2.
Cheers,
RexTerra aka Loicenick aka Leaky the Leviathan aka Litigator
Thats because the people that want to use X-Fire ARE DOING IT WRONG.
You want to use it as a tool? Figure out how. Answer my challenge from a page or two back, or at least discuss *how* we can use x-fire given its limitations. Its clear that the OP's xfire factor is useless rubbish. So figure out a way to incorporate different factors besides raw users. Fiigure out *why* a higher percentage of EvE users use xfire than Rift, and a higher percentage of rift users use XFire than EQ1. Once we can do that we can discuss xfire is a player measure.
I just answered it.
Or is someone going to argue against demonstrated correlation today? Be my guest.
You did nothing more than state "My friend did" lol. Thats not really hard to argue against.
Or is someone going to argue against demonstrated correlation today? Be my guest.
You didn't answer anything. There's almost no actual information in your post at all.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
They deleted the thread. If he has it saved and if I can contact him I will repost it.
I would hope it is not deleted again.
But assuming that the data is valid, do you agree that this settles the argument?
Do you agree with the argument then? Honestly it is a lot of work to have to pull the data again (from a contact perspective).
But if it is enough to settle this silly debate I'd love to end it: XFire is a sound correlation for in-game player populations and game subscription levels as a whole.
And if someone believes it is not, please provide your argument?
So where is this regression formula then? You are saying you came up with a formula where some coeeficient times number of xfire users plus an offset comes with an accurate representation of users? Im calling BS until you post the formula and we can test it vs common sense. (common sense tells us that 738 users for Eve vs 30 users for EQ2 shows there are other factors at play)
Here's the thing, feel free to do what you wish to do. As it stands I am completely comfortable with my stance on Xfire numbers. I don't feel that they are reliable at all. There are simply to many variables for anyone to use in the way they attempt to use them.
Being comfortable with my stance and you give me no data what so ever and tell me I am supposed to change my point of view because an in game friend of yours at one point convienced you simply doesn't fly.
Post the data and we can go from there lol.
I already gave you the formula. Simple Regression/least squares.
I didn't invent linear regression lol. Try Stats 101.
And no, you don't get a "common sense" pass. If you are anti-statistics, then you are not allowed to participate. I don't let Creationists debate on my newsgroup either.
XFire, much like any polling device, is not going to be an accurate device to rate how many people play compared to actual hard numbers given from the game company with actual number charts giving the exact data needed.
Case in point, say I have a room with 100 people. Left will be the full population while the right will be Xfire, with people in Xfire playing counting towards the 100 total.
XFire Bias
XFire Unpopular
As you can see, the % difference can be vastly different as the poll of players vary greatly as more users might play on Xfire while the very same can happen were fewer use XFire but might play overall. That being said, it can 'possibly' be used to pick up trends in when population increases in a game, but those types of trends can easily be pointed out without numbers, relying instead upon patches and other factors to expose the cause.
XFire is NOT a good way to judge a game's population. Unless the game is able to somehow manage to have an Equal % based representation with the total population (a feat which would be incredibly difficult to pull off) its just not going to stand a chance at being able to be a valid tool to judge anything outside possibly the influx of players at a certain time.
Okay this is why people without stats backgrounds should not be allowed to post here. Can't we have a meritocracy on at least one topic?
Please?
If XFire correlates to the population of 10-15 games (which it does) it is highly likely that it is a correlate for all games. Perhaps there are a few examples where it does not. But it has proven to be a very good analyzer of game populations.
You did NOT give a formula. What is the regression formula? I know how to do a linear regression. But you have failed to give the results, or the numbers even used in the regression. Anyone can say their friend did a study. But thats worthless without the actual details of said study.
This thread happened to pop up on the front page so I clicked into it. Do people still use Xfire anymore? Everyone I know uses Raptr if you want that sort of thing. Still tracks everything and you can import anything you need. It really is way better.
Xfire has one game left over 100k hours this week
Raptr has 10 games with 100k hours this week; 4 of them with 250k +.
Don't know why anyone would use Xfire for trends with such a small sampling.
Raptr shows Rift with nearly double the traffic of Guild Wars 2 this past month. GW2 may have flopped hard but I seriously doubt Rift is anywhere near as popular as GW2 right now. You might as well throw Raptr out of the discussion.
The only thing(assuming it hasn't been promoted by certain games and thus skewing the numbers) it's good for is showing that sampling isn't always as accurate as one source(xfire) might suggest.
I did a head count on SWTOR Monday and came up with about 50,000 concurrent users between US and Europe. xfire said Monday was a relatively light day for SWTOR. Made me kinda doubt xfire's findings.
Rift just did a huge promotion with Raptr
You have not shown anything. You have typed up a lot of words, but you have provided no information. Yamota started this thread with good intent, and in the guise of 'helping', you are pushing it away from anyone following through with Yamota's goal.
But since you're asking about meritocracy, let's get into your post. You did not show that XFire is valid, you showed that XFire requires additional information to point to a valid number. The second problem is that there is a host of public information showing that XFire does not correlate to game populations consistently. Which makes sense, since if it correlated with anything it would be concurrent players. Except it doesn't even do that (look at Eve's concurrent players for reference). There's no point in going over the math in your original post because there isn't any math.
** edit **
Did you even read your post? "Top 20 MMOs"? Really? You determined the actual population of 20 MMOs separate from XFire? This I would love to see.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
I contacted my friend in WoW: he is going to send me the excel sheet tonight.
I will then repost the data and you will quickly see how reliable XFire is when it comes to population estimation within a game (not between games).
The data will be interesting to be sure, however how will it verify an ingame's population? What is the comparison? We will allready need to know the ingame population over several time periods in order to compare the data.