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XFire - As MMO population estimation tool

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  • Rthuth434Rthuth434 uniondale, NYPosts: 346Member
    you can't get any population data from it. it's invalid and innacurate.
  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    Originally posted by KingJiggly
    Originally posted by Yamota
    Originally posted by Amana
    Originally posted by Yamota
     

    no, I dont agree with your assessment that it is not useful, I think it is. So I am going to use it, regardless of what you think.

    And the purpose of this thread was to use XFire as a population measurment tool. You dont find it accurate, great. Move on then. I dont need to move on because this thread is based on the assumption that XFire is accurate.

    If you want to debate that then start a thread discussing it and I will happily stay away from it.

    This is the thread for discussion of XFire. It is relatively civil so far, but telling posters to go create their own or to go post elsewhere isn't in that spirit. What we don't want are 500 XFire argument threads. You wanted one, and it's here.

    Well the reason I created the thread was not to create an endless discussion about its validity but rather to try and use the data to get some userbase data. How can you do that if it keep getting flooded by anti XFire people saying it is invalid a million times?

    It is pointless and non-constructive.

    Your question was to use xfire as a pop. Estimation tool, and I believe we have obtained more than enough info to answer the question: NO. I am no expert, but it seems site trustworthiness, type of population, and the fact no one likes it used against there game.

    No, there was no question. The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. It is like starting a thread and trying to get poll results for an election from the only tool available but when trying to do that get a bunch of people saying it is invalid over and over again without offering any alternatives.

    That is the very definition of topic hijacking.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Yamota
    Originally posted by KingJiggly Originally posted by Yamota Originally posted by Amana Originally posted by Yamota  
    no, I dont agree with your assessment that it is not useful, I think it is. So I am going to use it, regardless of what you think. And the purpose of this thread was to use XFire as a population measurment tool. You dont find it accurate, great. Move on then. I dont need to move on because this thread is based on the assumption that XFire is accurate. If you want to debate that then start a thread discussing it and I will happily stay away from it.
    This is the thread for discussion of XFire. It is relatively civil so far, but telling posters to go create their own or to go post elsewhere isn't in that spirit. What we don't want are 500 XFire argument threads. You wanted one, and it's here.
    Well the reason I created the thread was not to create an endless discussion about its validity but rather to try and use the data to get some userbase data. How can you do that if it keep getting flooded by anti XFire people saying it is invalid a million times? It is pointless and non-constructive.
    Your question was to use xfire as a pop. Estimation tool, and I believe we have obtained more than enough info to answer the question: NO. I am no expert, but it seems site trustworthiness, type of population, and the fact no one likes it used against there game.
    No, there was no question. The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. It is like starting a thread and trying to get poll results for an election from the only tool available but when trying to do that get a bunch of people saying it is invalid over and over again without offering any alternatives.

    That is the very definition of topic hijacking.




    The Lords of MMORPG.com have spoken. When they said they would sticky a thread, it would be for the discussion of XFire. This includes discussion on the validity of XFire as a source of data. So pick one. Your thread becomes the sticky one, or it gets dropped in favor of another thread that gets to be the sticky one. Either way, all XFire discussion goes in that thread. They were pretty clear about this when they told everyone to quit it with the XFire stuff.

    Anyway to use XFire as a population estimation tool, there needs to be a process to follow in order to do so. If there's a process, it means that the results are going to get checked. In other words, discussing the validity of the source data and the process is part of discussing XFire as a population estimation tool.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • KingJigglyKingJiggly Simpsonville, SCPosts: 777Member
    Originally posted by Yamota
    Originally posted by KingJiggly
    Originally posted by Yamota
    Originally posted by Amana
    Originally posted by Yamota
     

    no, I dont agree with your assessment that it is not useful, I think it is. So I am going to use it, regardless of what you think.

    And the purpose of this thread was to use XFire as a population measurment tool. You dont find it accurate, great. Move on then. I dont need to move on because this thread is based on the assumption that XFire is accurate.

    If you want to debate that then start a thread discussing it and I will happily stay away from it.

    This is the thread for discussion of XFire. It is relatively civil so far, but telling posters to go create their own or to go post elsewhere isn't in that spirit. What we don't want are 500 XFire argument threads. You wanted one, and it's here.

    Well the reason I created the thread was not to create an endless discussion about its validity but rather to try and use the data to get some userbase data. How can you do that if it keep getting flooded by anti XFire people saying it is invalid a million times?

    It is pointless and non-constructive.

    Your question was to use xfire as a pop. Estimation tool, and I believe we have obtained more than enough info to answer the question: NO. I am no expert, but it seems site trustworthiness, type of population, and the fact no one likes it used against there game.

    No, there was no question. The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. It is like starting a thread and trying to get poll results for an election from the only tool available but when trying to do that get a bunch of people saying it is invalid over and over again without offering any alternatives.

    That is the very definition of topic hijacking.

    Look. The only way your going to find an alternative is if the game companies tell you themselves. That is it any other way will be prodded to death by all comunities. 

  • SukiyakiSukiyaki GreenwichPosts: 1,398Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by lizardbones


    Anyway to use XFire as a population estimation tool, there needs to be a process to follow in order to do so. If there's a process, it means that the results are going to get checked. In other words, discussing the validity of the source data and the process is part of discussing XFire as a population estimation tool.

     

    The idea of this thread was to ignore that and jump back to their prevailed speculation as usual.

    Except once again, but now in thought of help by the mods, effectively silencing contrary views and any threat of a rational discussion about the whole validty/bias/inaccuracies branding them as "offtopic" and "done", which otherwise only hurt their credibility. They painfully learned they cant handle doubt. So they go out all means to kill it at the root. Forbid talk about the premises. "Welcome back to the Dark Ages. Let us discuss how the geocentric earth system improves our all lives for the better and dare you talk about anything else than that!"

    Mods obviously had something different in mind.

     

    They are not interested into "the best data we can get", "validity" or "accuracy".  They just found xfire as an abusable set of data, which since more than half a decade turned biased to show "declining" trends. All enough already for their objectives. Its "the best" exploitable tool to justify and back your personal doomsday crusades against games you dislike, with your pseudo "calculations" and "statistical evidence", peppered with twist and assumptions feigned as facts.

    Everything else is just a obvious farce. Never was to find reliable or concrete information about the state of any game. There's no dedication to accomplish that ever shown by their little group for years, nor to improve their methods, verify them (themself) or educate anyone about it. Its remains a mean  to continue spreading biased missinformation and cherrpicked halftruths again through deliberately withholding the vital information and on top of that an excuse to go further than that.

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by Yamota

    Originally posted by KingJiggly

    Originally posted by Yamota

    Originally posted by Amana

    Originally posted by Yamota

     
    no, I dont agree with your assessment that it is not useful, I think it is. So I am going to use it, regardless of what you think. And the purpose of this thread was to use XFire as a population measurment tool. You dont find it accurate, great. Move on then. I dont need to move on because this thread is based on the assumption that XFire is accurate. If you want to debate that then start a thread discussing it and I will happily stay away from it.
    This is the thread for discussion of XFire. It is relatively civil so far, but telling posters to go create their own or to go post elsewhere isn't in that spirit. What we don't want are 500 XFire argument threads. You wanted one, and it's here.
    Well the reason I created the thread was not to create an endless discussion about its validity but rather to try and use the data to get some userbase data. How can you do that if it keep getting flooded by anti XFire people saying it is invalid a million times? It is pointless and non-constructive.
    Your question was to use xfire as a pop. Estimation tool, and I believe we have obtained more than enough info to answer the question: NO. I am no expert, but it seems site trustworthiness, type of population, and the fact no one likes it used against there game.
    No, there was no question. The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. It is like starting a thread and trying to get poll results for an election from the only tool available but when trying to do that get a bunch of people saying it is invalid over and over again without offering any alternatives.

     

    That is the very definition of topic hijacking.



    The Lords of MMORPG.com have spoken. When they said they would sticky a thread, it would be for the discussion of XFire. This includes discussion on the validity of XFire as a source of data. So pick one. Your thread becomes the sticky one, or it gets dropped in favor of another thread that gets to be the sticky one. Either way, all XFire discussion goes in that thread. They were pretty clear about this when they told everyone to quit it with the XFire stuff.

    Anyway to use XFire as a population estimation tool, there needs to be a process to follow in order to do so. If there's a process, it means that the results are going to get checked. In other words, discussing the validity of the source data and the process is part of discussing XFire as a population estimation tool.

     

    How can you hold several discussions about the same thing in the same thread? I dont get it. Either you discuss the validity of the tool, which there is no end, or you discuss how you can use it to get some data.

    Those are two distincively different sub-topics. It is like creating a thread about MMORPGs and saying that everything regarding MMORPGs can be in this single thread. It would be a mess!

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    Originally posted by KingJiggly
    Originally posted by Yamota
    Originally posted by KingJiggly
    Originally posted by Yamota
    Originally posted by Amana
    Originally posted by Yamota
     

    no, I dont agree with your assessment that it is not useful, I think it is. So I am going to use it, regardless of what you think.

    And the purpose of this thread was to use XFire as a population measurment tool. You dont find it accurate, great. Move on then. I dont need to move on because this thread is based on the assumption that XFire is accurate.

    If you want to debate that then start a thread discussing it and I will happily stay away from it.

    This is the thread for discussion of XFire. It is relatively civil so far, but telling posters to go create their own or to go post elsewhere isn't in that spirit. What we don't want are 500 XFire argument threads. You wanted one, and it's here.

    Well the reason I created the thread was not to create an endless discussion about its validity but rather to try and use the data to get some userbase data. How can you do that if it keep getting flooded by anti XFire people saying it is invalid a million times?

    It is pointless and non-constructive.

    Your question was to use xfire as a pop. Estimation tool, and I believe we have obtained more than enough info to answer the question: NO. I am no expert, but it seems site trustworthiness, type of population, and the fact no one likes it used against there game.

    No, there was no question. The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. It is like starting a thread and trying to get poll results for an election from the only tool available but when trying to do that get a bunch of people saying it is invalid over and over again without offering any alternatives.

    That is the very definition of topic hijacking.

    Look. The only way your going to find an alternative is if the game companies tell you themselves. That is it any other way will be prodded to death by all comunities. 

    So I guess scientific polling does not exist then right? Not saying XFire is a scientific polling but obviously that concept exist but no-one has the funds nor the will to actually create one so we are stuck with imperfect tools like XFire.

    Yeah sometimes life is like that, you cant get the perfect tool so you use whatever you got. Once I needed to hammer a nail but I did not have a hammer so I used the blunt end of a heavy screw driver to hammer it down.

    But I cant do that right? Because it isn't a hammer...

    Pragmatism over idealism. That is life instead of fiction.

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    Originally posted by XAPGames
    Originally posted by Yamota

    I got answer from the XFire mods about access to their XML interface. Unfourtunately it was a negative:

    "We don't have that kind of API call set up. With that kind of data, I believe it's only something we'd want to share with partners and press releases."

    So I guess the only way to create a historic database is doing it manually...

     

    Or semi-manually.  An old fashioned spider driven data scrape (grab the HTML, parse out the data, store) done discreetly could be interesting.  I'm guessing it would have to be done discreetly.

     

    Good idea! I use a Java automatic web test tool (Selenium) at my work and I could use the same to extract this data on a daily basis and store it in a MySQL database.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Yamota
    Originally posted by lizardbones   Originally posted by Yamota Originally posted by KingJiggly Originally posted by Yamota Originally posted by Amana Originally posted by Yamota  
    no, I dont agree with your assessment that it is not useful, I think it is. So I am going to use it, regardless of what you think. And the purpose of this thread was to use XFire as a population measurment tool. You dont find it accurate, great. Move on then. I dont need to move on because this thread is based on the assumption that XFire is accurate. If you want to debate that then start a thread discussing it and I will happily stay away from it.
    This is the thread for discussion of XFire. It is relatively civil so far, but telling posters to go create their own or to go post elsewhere isn't in that spirit. What we don't want are 500 XFire argument threads. You wanted one, and it's here.
    Well the reason I created the thread was not to create an endless discussion about its validity but rather to try and use the data to get some userbase data. How can you do that if it keep getting flooded by anti XFire people saying it is invalid a million times? It is pointless and non-constructive.
    Your question was to use xfire as a pop. Estimation tool, and I believe we have obtained more than enough info to answer the question: NO. I am no expert, but it seems site trustworthiness, type of population, and the fact no one likes it used against there game.
    No, there was no question. The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. It is like starting a thread and trying to get poll results for an election from the only tool available but when trying to do that get a bunch of people saying it is invalid over and over again without offering any alternatives.   That is the very definition of topic hijacking.
    The Lords of MMORPG.com have spoken. When they said they would sticky a thread, it would be for the discussion of XFire. This includes discussion on the validity of XFire as a source of data. So pick one. Your thread becomes the sticky one, or it gets dropped in favor of another thread that gets to be the sticky one. Either way, all XFire discussion goes in that thread. They were pretty clear about this when they told everyone to quit it with the XFire stuff. Anyway to use XFire as a population estimation tool, there needs to be a process to follow in order to do so. If there's a process, it means that the results are going to get checked. In other words, discussing the validity of the source data and the process is part of discussing XFire as a population estimation tool.  
    How can you hold several discussions about the same thing in the same thread? I dont get it. Either you discuss the validity of the tool, which there is no end, or you discuss how you can use it to get some data.

    Those are two distincively different sub-topics. It is like creating a thread about MMORPGs and saying that everything regarding MMORPGs can be in this single thread. It would be a mess!




    It happens in nearly every thread I post in. I'm participating in two different discussions in another thread right now. It just works.

    The validation of XFire as a source of data is going to happen whether you want it or not. Your goal appears to be developing a process that takes XFire numbers and returns a game population numbers. Other people are going to follow that process and then validate the numbers they get. Even if you didn't have people critical of XFire, you would have people checking your end result. The validation is impossible to avoid...just move on with creating the process.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • madazzmadazz A town, ONPosts: 1,564Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Yamota
     

    The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. 

    So you are a full fledged mathematician? People have entered this thread and shown that your aim/goal is not achievable. You are basically trying to make a pig fly using nothing but a pig and a toothpick. It ain't happening bud. Seriously, stats don't work that way and xfire is not a solution. Maybe its time to pack it up and look for another tool to estimate with?

  • TooL-D-TooL-D- Knox, TNPosts: 126Member
    X-Fire is not a good way to see how many people play a game because not every player will use it.  Especally players trying to compete.  X-Fire is just another extra resourse on your system that is not needed, even if they claim its minimal it still uses memory.  Lets look at Darkfall vs Mortal Online in the past.  Darkfall has a bigger playerbase than Mortal Online yet X-Fire showed otherwise.  X-Fire just does not work on the smaller games.  Its a Coke vs Pepsi thing, the few Pepsi players play this more popular game while the more popular coke players play this less popular game.
  • DauzqulDauzqul Detroit, MIPosts: 1,401Member Uncommon

    I've played MMOs since the launch of SWG. I've used xfire maybe one or two times...  years and years ago.

    Come to think of it, I don't know anyone that uses xfire...  and I have numerous gaming pals.

  • ThorqemadaThorqemada BerlinPosts: 1,277Member Uncommon

    X-Fire is quite good for making estimations.
    I turned out to me that its very accurate to show trends and predict player numbers quite well for the more popular games bcs with enough participants the error margin becomes irrelevant as the playerbase is mirrored in the X-Fire userbase almost excact.

    "Torquemada... do not implore him for compassion. Torquemada... do not beg him for forgiveness. Torquemada... do not ask him for mercy. Let's face it, you can't Torquemada anything!"

    MWO Music Video - What does the Mech say: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FF6HYNqCDLI
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  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Thorqemada
    X-Fire is quite good for making estimations.
    I turned out to me that its very accurate to show trends and predict player numbers quite well for the more popular games bcs with enough participants the error margin becomes irrelevant as the playerbase is mirrored in the X-Fire userbase almost excact.


    Then type up the process to use to estimate gaming populations. The point of the thread is to actually do these things, not just say they can be done.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • VengeSunsoarVengeSunsoar Posts: 5,297Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by madazz
    Originally posted by Yamota
     

    The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. 

    So you are a full fledged mathematician? People have entered this thread and shown that your aim/goal is not achievable. You are basically trying to make a pig fly using nothing but a pig and a toothpick. It ain't happening bud. Seriously, stats don't work that way and xfire is not a solution. Maybe its time to pack it up and look for another tool to estimate with?

    @yamota, you cannot discuss using something as a tool for estimating a population without also discussing how valid it is.  

    It's validy as that tool is central and paramount to it's ability to be used as that tool. 

    My own view is that it probably has some small validity in trends in large newer games.  But as a definitive tool for estimating populations?  forget it.

    Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,926Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    Originally posted by madazz
    Originally posted by Yamota
     

    The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. 

    So you are a full fledged mathematician? People have entered this thread and shown that your aim/goal is not achievable. You are basically trying to make a pig fly using nothing but a pig and a toothpick. It ain't happening bud. Seriously, stats don't work that way and xfire is not a solution. Maybe its time to pack it up and look for another tool to estimate with?

    @yamota, you cannot discuss using something as a tool for estimating a population without also discussing how valid it is.  

    It's validy as that tool is central and paramount to it's ability to be used as that tool. 

    My own view is that it probably has some small validity in trends in large newer games.  But as a definitive tool for estimating populations?  forget it.

    Unless devs start releasing their player numbers, it's impossible to verify or debunk XFires validity.  It's the best tool we have right now and it has been pretty good at showing trends before the numbers are announced in quarterly reports.

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,926Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Mannish
    What funny to me is that Xfire was allowed to be used on every game thread until Guild Wars 2 came out. Even when Guild Wars 2 came out Xfire numbers were allowed to be posted because it had a good launch but as soon as it started showing Guild Wars 2 gameplay hours going down rapidlly then they declare Xfire can no longer be posted on a thread anymore. 

    I agree to an extent.  But I think what happened was the mods got sick of all of the XFire arguments regarding SWTOR.  And so by the time GW2 was released they put their foot down.

     

    The funny thing is that XFire was very good at showing the population trends of SWTOR.  It also seems pretty good at showing the relative population between MMOs based on the numbers that have been released for games like WOW, SWTOR and TSW.  We'll never know how accurate it represented GW2 trends as there are no subscription numbers to look at 6 months from now.

  • zymurgeistzymurgeist Pittsville, VAPosts: 5,211Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by FrodoFragins
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    Originally posted by madazz
    Originally posted by Yamota
     

    The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. 

    So you are a full fledged mathematician? People have entered this thread and shown that your aim/goal is not achievable. You are basically trying to make a pig fly using nothing but a pig and a toothpick. It ain't happening bud. Seriously, stats don't work that way and xfire is not a solution. Maybe its time to pack it up and look for another tool to estimate with?

    @yamota, you cannot discuss using something as a tool for estimating a population without also discussing how valid it is.  

    It's validy as that tool is central and paramount to it's ability to be used as that tool. 

    My own view is that it probably has some small validity in trends in large newer games.  But as a definitive tool for estimating populations?  forget it.

    Unless devs start releasing their player numbers, it's impossible to verify or debunk XFires validity.  It's the best tool we have right now and it has been pretty good at showing trends before the numbers are announced in quarterly reports.

     It's a mediocre tool for telling long term gross population trends up, down or fairly stable. However it's useless for determining rate of change or providing population estimates. MMOs almost always trend down over time aside from a short term resurgance when business model changes or new content is released. It's not going to tell you anything you shouldn't already know.

    "Strong and bitter words indicate a weak cause" ~Victor Hugo

  • VengeSunsoarVengeSunsoar Posts: 5,297Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by FrodoFragins
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    Originally posted by madazz
    Originally posted by Yamota
     

    The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. 

    So you are a full fledged mathematician? People have entered this thread and shown that your aim/goal is not achievable. You are basically trying to make a pig fly using nothing but a pig and a toothpick. It ain't happening bud. Seriously, stats don't work that way and xfire is not a solution. Maybe its time to pack it up and look for another tool to estimate with?

    @yamota, you cannot discuss using something as a tool for estimating a population without also discussing how valid it is.  

    It's validy as that tool is central and paramount to it's ability to be used as that tool. 

    My own view is that it probably has some small validity in trends in large newer games.  But as a definitive tool for estimating populations?  forget it.

    Unless devs start releasing their player numbers, it's impossible to verify or debunk XFires validity.  It's the best tool we have right now and it has been pretty good at showing trends before the numbers are announced in quarterly reports.

    I don't think it is the best tool at all.  Most of the companies are publicly traded, therefore they have quarterly reports and prospectus.  It's very easy to get these and they would provide a much better sample.

    Again for large newer games x-fire may have some small validity but thats it. 

    Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,926Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by strangiato2112

    There is also likely another factor involved: Im betting PvPers use xfire in greater numbers because they are more inclined to play FPS games (which tend to attract xfire users).

     

    The representation of the games looked at points to that as well.

    EvE: most represented

    Rift: somewhat represented

    EQ2: barely represented

    EQ1: practically zero representation

    Which mirrors the amount their game is based off of PvP.  And Im not talking about number of users as representation, Im talking about number of users vs game population (% of people that use xfire)

    That's a straw man.

     

    Regarding FPS games, why does LoL beat them handily on XFire if it is mostly used by FPSers?  Those FPS games that chart were HUGE record breaking sellers.  We'd expect them to be up there for any PC polling tool that supports them. 

     

    EQ1 and EQ2 not having PVP probably explains their poor ACTUAL populations if anything.  The most popular MMOs have PVE and PVP.

     

     

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,926Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by zymurgeist

     It's a mediocre tool for telling long term gross population trends up, down or fairly stable. However it's useless for determining rate of change or providing population estimates. MMOs almost always trend down over time aside from a short term resurgance when business model changes or new content is released. It's not going to tell you anything you shouldn't already know.

    So I assume you have some examples of where XFire trends were way off the mark ? 

     

    SWTOR divebombed on XFire and in real population numbers.  Other games like LOTRO and Rift have been fairly steady.  LOTRO and SWTOR also showed population increases after going F2P.  It also verified the rapid decline of D3 populations.  It's not like XFire trends the same for every MMO.

     

    I've yet to see an example of XFire being completely off base with a game that started off with lots of people and then lost a ton of them.  Yet people cry every time their game shows major population decreases on XFire.  Again, this is really only useful for games that were in the top 10 at some point.  The margin of error for the low pop games makes it trickier and it's not like anyone disputes that those games have population issues anyway.

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,926Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    Originally posted by FrodoFragins
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    Originally posted by madazz
    Originally posted by Yamota
     

    The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. 

    So you are a full fledged mathematician? People have entered this thread and shown that your aim/goal is not achievable. You are basically trying to make a pig fly using nothing but a pig and a toothpick. It ain't happening bud. Seriously, stats don't work that way and xfire is not a solution. Maybe its time to pack it up and look for another tool to estimate with?

    @yamota, you cannot discuss using something as a tool for estimating a population without also discussing how valid it is.  

    It's validy as that tool is central and paramount to it's ability to be used as that tool. 

    My own view is that it probably has some small validity in trends in large newer games.  But as a definitive tool for estimating populations?  forget it.

    Unless devs start releasing their player numbers, it's impossible to verify or debunk XFires validity.  It's the best tool we have right now and it has been pretty good at showing trends before the numbers are announced in quarterly reports.

    I don't think it is the best tool at all.  Most of the companies are publicly traded, therefore they have quarterly reports and prospectus.  It's very easy to get these and they would provide a much better sample.

    Again for large newer games x-fire may have some small validity but thats it. 

    Most companies try to hide their declines in one way or another.  Blizzard doesn't separate their subscriber numbers by region.  SWTOR stopped being specific once they lost a ton of players.  Turbine never released their numbers.

     

    There is currently no better tool for measuring relative populations between games and population trends and there won't be unless every PC game distributes only through steam or if Windows adds a tool to track every game being played in their operating systems.

  • DesirsarDesirsar Lincoln, NEPosts: 100Member

    Here's a statistical trend for you - most of the people arguing that estimating population for MMOs using XFire numbers is grossly inaccurate are thinking we're using the resulting game populations to write a magazine or Wikipedia article or something.  Rather, it *IS* useful to a player looking for a new game and wondering how much population they can expect, or to observe trends to avoid trying a game that is bleeding players rapidly.  Those don't need specific numbers, only estimates and trends.

    More on topic, is it possible that lower population games have a different XFire Factor?  Can anyone spot a trend that would suggest a useful formula for a variable XFire Factor, even if you're having to work backwards from rough population numbers given sparesly in press releases or dev interviews?

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  • VengeSunsoarVengeSunsoar Posts: 5,297Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by FrodoFragins
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    Originally posted by FrodoFragins
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    Originally posted by madazz
    Originally posted by Yamota
     

    The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. 

    So you are a full fledged mathematician? People have entered this thread and shown that your aim/goal is not achievable. You are basically trying to make a pig fly using nothing but a pig and a toothpick. It ain't happening bud. Seriously, stats don't work that way and xfire is not a solution. Maybe its time to pack it up and look for another tool to estimate with?

    @yamota, you cannot discuss using something as a tool for estimating a population without also discussing how valid it is.  

    It's validy as that tool is central and paramount to it's ability to be used as that tool. 

    My own view is that it probably has some small validity in trends in large newer games.  But as a definitive tool for estimating populations?  forget it.

    Unless devs start releasing their player numbers, it's impossible to verify or debunk XFires validity.  It's the best tool we have right now and it has been pretty good at showing trends before the numbers are announced in quarterly reports.

    I don't think it is the best tool at all.  Most of the companies are publicly traded, therefore they have quarterly reports and prospectus.  It's very easy to get these and they would provide a much better sample.

    Again for large newer games x-fire may have some small validity but thats it. 

    Most companies try to hide their declines in one way or another.  Blizzard doesn't separate their subscriber numbers by region.  SWTOR stopped being specific once they lost a ton of players.  Turbine never released their numbers.

     

    There is currently no better tool for measuring relative populations between games and population trends and there won't be unless every PC game distributes only through steam or if Windows adds a tool to track every game being played in their operating systems.

    There is no need to seperate by region as the games are all played on a world market.

    X-fire showed swtor's decline but it does not give any information on the actual population number.

    Prospectus and consumer reports are much more reliable for hard numbers than x-fire.  All x-fire shows are trends for large and popular games, thats it.  There is absolutely no evidence of anything more than that.

    Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member

    Has anyone noticed when trying to come up with an "XFire Factor" that the bit where XFire points towards concurrent players, not a game's population gets skipped? If there is an actual process, wouldn't that be an important part of it?

    In the quest for an XFire Factor, why is Sukiyaki's post, containing the XFire Players and Concurrent Players for Eve being ignored? It has the relevant information, and compares a sample of apples to apples. It's right there. Just look at it.

    What I see is this. A lot of people claiming some sort of success with XFire, without actually showing any sort of success. They are just saying, "I was right!" Well, if these predictions were right, they should be repeatable, with a process for doing so. Show us the process. Nobody here is making money off of any population predictions for XFire, so show us how you're doing it.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

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