Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Fuzzy Avatars Solved! Please re-upload your avatar if it was fuzzy!

How long do you think the subscription model will last?

1356

Comments

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon santa clara, CAPosts: 22,441Member
    Originally posted by Sovrath
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Sovrath
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Sovrath
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    The sub model already is death for me.

    And out of curiostiy, how much do you spend per month in the current game of your choice?

    Zero. Currently i am playing (MMOs, not listing the non-MMO) PS2, some STO, and i may go back to DCUO. I am going to play Marvel Heroes when it comes out. Oh, and may be a little DDO if i feel like AD&D.

    Oh, and i haven't paid a single cent to these games either.

    Ok great. But how do you expect these companies to make any money? your answer might be "others".

    And to my thinking that's the whole crux of the problem right there because more people than not are going to rely upon "others" to pay for their game habits.

    It's a ridiculous business model.

    Yes. And those others are called "whales" in the industry. As long as they exist, i got to play for free.

    And why would that be a "problem" if there are enough whales to sustain the games? Obviously there are enough since there are so many F2P games, and all seems to be doing fine and adding content.

    Well that's not exactly true is it? Aion, with it's "totally free" f2p model wasn't able to make the money that the company wanted. I think companies are going to realize that this model isn't going to generate a sustained income and will start throwing in anything and evertyhing to make a buck. At what point will the Pay to win items make an entrance? Real pay to win items that is.

    My thought is that there is going to come a time when companies are going to require more money than "whales" can deliver.

     

    One company does not make up the market. If you look at the market, here is the data:

    http://www.newzoo.com/press-releases/global-mmo-games-spending-exceeds-12bn/

    "In the US, the share of revenues coming from free-to-play MMO games continues to rise, reaching 50% this year, up from 39% in 2010". And now F2P is making as much money in the US as p2p games... i would say there are quite a few whales ou tthere.

    And don't you think p2w is only fair when others are paying for your games? Now no one can perfectly predict the future. So what if at some point in the future, this will go way? Right now, i don't see F2P going away any time soon, and there is no reason to enjoy the free games now (if they are fun).

     

  • shawn01shawn01 nashua, NHPosts: 153Member Common
    Originally posted by RedJorge

     

    Fully agree with you.

    Actually I think the best model will be subscription + cash shop.

    And the content should be designed so everyone must go through all or most  of it while leveling.

     

    No. No. We should not be forced into content. I dont want my hand held, and making us do all the content leaves nothing for the second or third time. Every alt you make should be a seperate journey. A game that will keep people occupied for a long time will have many paths to travel.

  • madazzmadazz A town, ONPosts: 1,564Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
     

    One company does not make up the market. If you look at the market, here is the data:

     

     

    Yet you always find one source of information to back up whatever weird argument you are starting, and then demand that that source of information is representative of the entire market.

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon santa clara, CAPosts: 22,441Member
    Originally posted by madazz
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
     

    One company does not make up the market. If you look at the market, here is the data:

     

     

    Yet you always find one source of information to back up whatever weird argument you are starting, and then demand that that source of information is representative of the entire market.

    Well, this is the entire market data, if you read carefully. Feel free to find another source of market data to contradict it.

    And yet you always cannot find any source of data, exccept your opinion to back up your arguments.

  • GrayGhost79GrayGhost79 Webster, MAPosts: 4,813Member

    The subscription model isn't going anywhere. All thats happening is that developers and publishers are realizing that to make the pay to play model work they need a means of keeping players. If you launch a game that lacks staying power then charging a monthly fee is suicide. You need a way to keep players playing so that they keep on paying. 

    In leu of that what other companies are going to do is release games of lesser quality and make them free to play. Look at PS2, it is a decent game and it is fun for short periods of time, but it's certainly not a game that would keep players playing and paying. 

     

    F2P's will stick around, B2P will gain popularity, and true AAA titles will be able to charge a monthly fee. 

     

  • shawn01shawn01 nashua, NHPosts: 153Member Common
    I dont mind paying 15 dollars a month for a game that i really like. I paid 30 dollars a month to play daoc for years. 30 dollars was cheap for the amount of fun and entertainment i had every month.
  • TheScavengerTheScavenger Matrix, NYPosts: 911Member Uncommon

    Within 10 years, sub models will be gone. Good riddance.

     

    I would rather pay 15 dollars a month using station cash (SOE as an example)...than spend 15 dollars...and then exactly at 30 days never be able to play the MMO again unless subscribe again. On the other hand, I pay to unlock stuff with 15 dollars...and I OWN that for all of eternity (or however long the MMO lives)

    I hope subscription MMOs die a fast and painful death.

     

    WHY would someone want to spend a month in game, to be locked out of ALL content as soon as 30 days is over?

     

    On the other hand, you can pay to unlock said content...might cost a tad more in the short term. BUT, you NEVER get locked out of that content.

     

    We are very fast seeing subscription MMOs dying. And good riddance. More and more MMOs are going free or freemium...and they are doing AMAZING, population wise and in terms of the money they make. Very soon, subscription MMOs at the very least...will be a very very niche market, and no big MMO will follow that model. It will be cheap indie sandbox MMOs, that get very little people playing them.

    image
  • quseioquseio stevens, PAPosts: 222Member

    if games go all ftp the game  quality and longevity will go down the tube fast  even if they do make more money  with  cash shop  the negetive effects of ftp and cash shops   make the community bad, from spammmers and who cares ill just make a new account mentality, to the slippery sloap of  buy to win.

     

    Not to say  cash shop stuff doesnt have a place look at sonys cash shop in eq1  almost entirely fluff  i belive a combo of cash shop and a low subscription would be best. maybe with a option to answer surveys to pay your  sub, but one handled by the  mmo company  so many of those cash  shop  freeebie deals never  have given me  stuff

     

    Same goes for expansions, but  i think a deal like this would  work well buy xxx amount of cash shop  goodies get next expansion for free say 30% over expansions price

  • quseioquseio stevens, PAPosts: 222Member
    Originally posted by TheScavenger

    Within 10 years, sub models will be gone. Good riddance.

     

    I would rather pay 15 dollars a month using station cash (SOE as an example)...than spend 15 dollars...and then exactly at 30 days never be able to play the MMO again unless subscribe again. On the other hand, I pay to unlock stuff with 15 dollars...and I OWN that for all of eternity (or however long the MMO lives)

    I hope subscription MMOs die a fast and painful death.

     

    WHY would someone want to spend a month in game, to be locked out of ALL content as soon as 30 days is over?

     

    On the other hand, you can pay to unlock said content...might cost a tad more in the short term. BUT, you NEVER get locked out of that content.  edit( pay alot  fixed)

     

    We are very fast seeing subscription MMOs dying. And good riddance. More and more MMOs are going free or freemium...and they are doing AMAZING, population wise and in terms of the money they make. Very soon, subscription MMOs at the very least...will be a very very niche market, and no big MMO will follow that model. It will be cheap indie sandbox MMOs, that get very little people playing them.

     oh yes  sure you can keep playing forever but  all your gear is no longer useable if your a raider, unless you pay to unlock it and end up paying more than you would  with a sub

     

    subscriptions  help keep a level playing field and No buy to win just say no to buy to win i would rather have a subscription so the company isnt so desperate to drain your wallet with leet stuff

  • madazzmadazz A town, ONPosts: 1,564Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by madazz
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
     

    One company does not make up the market. If you look at the market, here is the data:

     

     

    Yet you always find one source of information to back up whatever weird argument you are starting, and then demand that that source of information is representative of the entire market.

    Well, this is the entire market data, if you read carefully. Feel free to find another source of market data to contradict it.

    And yet you always cannot find any source of data, exccept your opinion to back up your arguments.

    Except for all those times I posted links and asked valid questions and you ignored them? Nice attempt. But no.

  • DoomsDay01DoomsDay01 Charlotte, NCPosts: 780Member Common
    Originally posted by quseio
    Originally posted by TheScavenger

    Within 10 years, sub models will be gone. Good riddance.

     

    I would rather pay 15 dollars a month using station cash (SOE as an example)...than spend 15 dollars...and then exactly at 30 days never be able to play the MMO again unless subscribe again. On the other hand, I pay to unlock stuff with 15 dollars...and I OWN that for all of eternity (or however long the MMO lives)

    I hope subscription MMOs die a fast and painful death.

     

    WHY would someone want to spend a month in game, to be locked out of ALL content as soon as 30 days is over?

     

    On the other hand, you can pay to unlock said content...might cost a tad more in the short term. BUT, you NEVER get locked out of that content.  edit( pay alot  fixed)

     

    We are very fast seeing subscription MMOs dying. And good riddance. More and more MMOs are going free or freemium...and they are doing AMAZING, population wise and in terms of the money they make. Very soon, subscription MMOs at the very least...will be a very very niche market, and no big MMO will follow that model. It will be cheap indie sandbox MMOs, that get very little people playing them.

     oh yes  sure you can keep playing forever but  all your gear is no longer useable if your a raider, unless you pay to unlock it and end up paying more than you would  with a sub

     

    subscriptions  help keep a level playing field and No buy to win just say no to buy to win i would rather have a subscription so the company isnt so desperate to drain your wallet with leet stuff

    What does it matter if you are playing a PVE game and someone else bought the sword that you spent hours camping? Or maybe you dont have the time to put in to getting that sword. If its a pve game, there is no buying to win. Now if its pvp, then yeah I can see the point, but many of the posts I see like this are complaining because of the PVE side of it which it doesn't affect the other people in the slightest. I think it just boils down to people being hurt cause they can't afford to buy that shiney sword. Again, if its pve, who cares. buy to win doesn't exist in this context.

  • SovrathSovrath Boston Area, MAPosts: 18,458Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
     

    One company does not make up the market. If you look at the market, here is the data:

    http://www.newzoo.com/press-releases/global-mmo-games-spending-exceeds-12bn/

    "In the US, the share of revenues coming from free-to-play MMO games continues to rise, reaching 50% this year, up from 39% in 2010". And now F2P is making as much money in the US as p2p games... i would say there are quite a few whales ou tthere.

    And don't you think p2w is only fair when others are paying for your games? Now no one can perfectly predict the future. So what if at some point in the future, this will go way? Right now, i don't see F2P going away any time soon, and there is no reason to enjoy the free games now (if they are fun).

     

    Yes that's true but it's a good indicator that just because someone makes a game f2p it's not going to be a guarantee of generating enough cash to sustain the game.

    Now, if Aion is the only game that has this issue the it's just the game. However, my thought is that this is the first crack in the bowl. It's going to be very apparent that once the ceiling is hit there won't be any way to go other than adding "pay to win items" (which I don't think is ever a good thing no matter who is paying) or adding more fees.

    I suppose there is nothing to be done as long as small groups of people are perfectly happy paying for the mass of people who take advantage of the "free" part of the game.

  • kzaskekzaske Boise, IDPosts: 518Member
    I think the days of subscriptions is far from over.  But the days of subscriptions being the ONLY source of income for developers is already over.  I can't think of a game solely supported by subscriptions.

    image

  • TheScavengerTheScavenger Matrix, NYPosts: 911Member Uncommon

    People who support subscription models, are like those that like very niche music.

     

    Very niche music may be good, and there will be people that very much enjoy it. But, they should know they are part of a very niche group. Not a bad thing, and the artist may be all the better for it. He will however have very little money, but the artist probably isn't looking for money to begin with.

     

    Freemium and free to play are like pop, rock, rap and other popular music genres. They may be low quality, or they might actually be good...but they will get A LOT more money and A LOT more people listening to it. 

     

    Same can be said for themepark (popular music) and sandboxes (niche music)...but thats probably for another thread. Though if putting a pay to play sandbox into the genre...thats one very niche market and an extra niche market...very little money will overall be seen, at least most of the time. But will never see the amount of money as a themepark and a free to play/freemium.

     

    image
  • slickbizzleslickbizzle Matthews, NCPosts: 464Member

    There are a lot of good Free/Buy to play games out there.  It's going to get harder and harder for the sub based games to keep people paying $15 a month.

     

     

     

     

  • SovrathSovrath Boston Area, MAPosts: 18,458Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by TheScavenger

    People who support subscription models, are like those that like very niche music.

     

    Very niche music may be good, and there will be people that very much enjoy it. But, they should know they are part of a very niche group. Not a bad thing, and the artist may be all the better for it. He will however have very little money, but the artist probably isn't looking for money to begin with.

     

     

    hmmm and I do love very niche music ...

  • TheScavengerTheScavenger Matrix, NYPosts: 911Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Sovrath
    Originally posted by TheScavenger

    People who support subscription models, are like those that like very niche music.

     

    Very niche music may be good, and there will be people that very much enjoy it. But, they should know they are part of a very niche group. Not a bad thing, and the artist may be all the better for it. He will however have very little money, but the artist probably isn't looking for money to begin with.

     

     

    hmmm and I do love very niche music ...

    yeah, not a bad thing. But just like the niche music/artist...a subscription MMO shouldn't expect 100k+ subscribers. Especially if its a sandbox. They should expect 10k subscribers, and anything after that is a bonus.

     

    Its like a kickstarter asking for a million dollars...when in reality they should ask for 100k, and anything after that is a bonus.

     

    All these subscription MMOs complain about lack of people, even more with sandbox MMOs...but they are a very niche market (especially with both put together). Like I said, its not a bad thing and the game may be much higher quality. But they shouldn't expect 100k subscribers...10k is much more reasonable for a very niche market, maybe more with a pay to play themepark.

     

    And none especially should expect to meet WoW subscriber amount, but even freemiums run into that huge mistake. The higher you aim, the farther you miss. A freemium/free to play should aim for 100k to 300k subscribers, much more reasonable than trying to get millions of people playing it.

     

    Likewise, a pay to play themepark should aim for 50k to 100k (very reasonable and an easy goal to reach) and a pay to play sandbox should aim for 10k.

     

    If MMOs did that, niche, popular, pay to play, freemium, free...a lot more MMOs would be successful.

    image
  • MoutonDocileMoutonDocile deux-montagnes, QCPosts: 17Member

    When Blizzard decides that subs are dead, it's over. Until then....

     

    I like where things are going. Not every games are doing the F2P or B2P right (I'm looking at you SWTOR) but it's a good thing overall. Optionnal sub is also a good way to do things (PS2 for example. 

     

    It brings more people to MMOs. More people to play with is a good thing in my book.

     

     

  • niceguy3978niceguy3978 Gainesville, FLPosts: 2,000Member
    Originally posted by BadSpock
    Originally posted by niceguy3978
    As far as I know only SWTOR, TSW and DCUO abandoned their sub model "within months."  This is a bit of hyperbole.

    Fixed!

    I think the subscription model will last for exactly as long as Blizzard chooses to continue to use the subscription model for WoW.

    Yeah, I meant TSW, I don't know what my fingers were thinking when typing SWTOR and TOR.

  • grimalgrimal Stamford, CTPosts: 2,873Member Uncommon

    It's not really an longterm option for new releases

    The older games that remain with it, they have secured a solid playerbase.  But I think we are going to see more and more of the recent P2P titles moving to a new model, until eventually WoW will be the only one left.  Then, it will go F2P as well.

     

  • NovusodNovusod Lakewood, NJPosts: 892Member Uncommon
    The subscription model won't go away completely. Most subscription games will probably go "Freemium" in the next year if they have not done so already. By "Freemium" this means offering a limited "Free" access to the game but still offering a sub as the main form of payment. Micro-transaction cash shop games where you get nickel and dimed for every little thing are ultimately not that very successful outside of Asia.
  • RobokappRobokapp Dublin, OHPosts: 5,205Member Uncommon

    my guess is

     

    two decades from now on.

    image

  • Crunchy222Crunchy222 new york, ILPosts: 386Member

    Thing is, most of the games being used to firther this argument all still have subscriptions, its just you dont have to sub for basic content.  That is NOT f2p. Thats a really extensive trial.

     

    The ONLY modern p2p game that i can think of that went f2p was Aion (and L2).  That is a f2p game, everything free and it sustains itself on a cash shop.

     

    WAR, AOC, SWTOR, TSW, D&D, LOTRO...more im sure im missing...all of these games that are herealded by the f2p community as proof that subs are forever dead...all are subscription games still.

     

    Actually not 100% on TSW since i havent looked into that one yet (didnt it just happen?)

     

    I really wish people would get that most of these p2p games that switch are doing it for marketing reasons and are not really free.  Hell i think SWTOR would have done better with a trial for 49 levels and then sub for endgame, their model is way worse on free players than any other game ive seen.

     

     

    I really think the underlying issue is weve capped out on how much money studios can pump into a clone, its nearly impossible to get 1mil+subs these days on a new game thats similair to old games but uses buzz words like innovative.  People will always try these new games out but always leave since its more of the same.  Only a niche crowd will stay and support and that wont get these studios out of their mega-million dollar development cost holes.  They panic and go for a money grab.

     

     

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon santa clara, CAPosts: 22,441Member
    Originally posted by Sovrath
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
     

    One company does not make up the market. If you look at the market, here is the data:

    http://www.newzoo.com/press-releases/global-mmo-games-spending-exceeds-12bn/

    "In the US, the share of revenues coming from free-to-play MMO games continues to rise, reaching 50% this year, up from 39% in 2010". And now F2P is making as much money in the US as p2p games... i would say there are quite a few whales ou tthere.

    And don't you think p2w is only fair when others are paying for your games? Now no one can perfectly predict the future. So what if at some point in the future, this will go way? Right now, i don't see F2P going away any time soon, and there is no reason to enjoy the free games now (if they are fun).

     

    Yes that's true but it's a good indicator that just because someone makes a game f2p it's not going to be a guarantee of generating enough cash to sustain the game.

    Not every F2P game is going to be sucessful .. just like not every P2P game is going to be successful. Heck, not every game is going to be successful. Period. The trend is clear. More money is going into the F2P market. More games are going to be F2P. More players are going to F2P.

    Now, if Aion is the only game that has this issue the it's just the game. However, my thought is that this is the first crack in the bowl. It's going to be very apparent that once the ceiling is hit there won't be any way to go other than adding "pay to win items" (which I don't think is ever a good thing no matter who is paying) or adding more fees.

    So what? First, there is no p2w in pve .. since there is no "winning". Second, if someone is going to pay for your game, it is only fair that he has an advantage. And it is a level playing field, you are free to outspend anyone in teh game.

    I suppose there is nothing to be done as long as small groups of people are perfectly happy paying for the mass of people who take advantage of the "free" part of the game.

    Exactly. That is the beauty of the business model.

     

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon santa clara, CAPosts: 22,441Member
    Originally posted by Crunchy222

    Thing is, most of the games being used to firther this argument all still have subscriptions, its just you dont have to sub for basic content.  That is NOT f2p. Thats a really extensive trial.

     

    That is just semantics. You get to play part of the game, with zero time limit, for free. Whether you call it F2P, or an extensive trial, is irrelevant. And in some games, you get to play it all. Certainly it is not a small part of the game you get to play.

Sign In or Register to comment.