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XFire - As MMO population estimation tool

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  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Nadia
    Originally posted by Sevenstar61 There is 21 million Xfire users, so it's a big chunk of players.
    Raptr, a site similar to Xfire, claims 15 million users

    http://raptr.com/download

    Join your friends and our community of 15 million gamers who love using our award-winning PC desktop app. Fully customize your experience to fit your gaming style. No spyware or adware; ultra light so that your games won’t get bogged down.

     

    another version of "truth"




    XFire has a total of 21 million downloads. That's not active users and it's not concurrent users. How many active users do they have? Nobody knows because XFire will not tell them.

    I would guess that Raptr is the same way. They have 15 million installs, not 15 million active users.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 7,860Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by Jonnas13

    The part where we disagree is I do not feel the x-fire sample is representative of the people who play MMOs across the board.

    As long as you know the divergence, you can make a correction.

  • KingJigglyKingJiggly Simpsonville, SCPosts: 777Member

    This thread is going to be closed. 

     

    But, imo xfire only represents the hardcore population and therefore untrustworthy for casual games.

  • botrytisbotrytis In Flux, MIPosts: 2,567Member
    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by Jonnas13

    The part where we disagree is I do not feel the x-fire sample is representative of the people who play MMOs across the board.

     

    As long as you know the divergence, you can make a correction.

    But, we don't so you really can't make the correction and that is the point.

    image

    "In 50 years, when I talk to my grandchildren about these days, I'll make sure to mention what an accomplished MMO player I was. They are going to be so proud ..."
    by Naqaj - 7/17/2013 MMORPG.com forum

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 7,860Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by often

    The same is NOT random, it's peole who have elected to install a specific program on their computer, therefore any results used would be baised toward to types of people who install and use X-Fire.

    Yes, it is not random. So you are working with different probability here, still sufficient for these boards estimates, unless you can provide some data that xfire users are somewhat vastly different profile of average MMO gamer.

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 7,860Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by botrytisBut, we don't so you really can't make the correction and that is the point.

    Yes, you do. You have official and other data inputs you can include and make corrections.

    Majority of mmodata.com is made that way and unofficial data correlate with official numbers pretty well.

  • madazzmadazz A town, ONPosts: 1,564Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by madazz

    I could explain on here


     

    Oh please, entertain me with lesson in applied math...

    If you could of read past that line you would of figured it out. I implore you, please read up on stats. That is all I ask. I am wrong about a LOT of stuff ALL the time. I learn from it though. Its perfectly okay to be wrong about something as long as you can move forward from it and learn something.

    All I am asking you to do is read up on statistics and how they are gathered and work. I don't see the harm in making that request. Its all well and good to have a small grasp on how stats work, but without actually having a full understanding of them you aren't able to properly argue anything about them. Seriously, I'm not trying to bash on you. Just recently I made a statement about GW2 that was false, I apologized and moved on from it, no biggie... you are wrong about stats, I am asking you to read up on it. Problem is, you are oversimplfying how it works in your head, and I honestly think that if you read up on how they work in detail then you'd have a better understanding. I am not on this forum to give you a class is how stats work (and yes, there are classes for this stuff). 

  • CecropiaCecropia The Great White North, ONPosts: 3,471Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by often

    The same is NOT random, it's peole who have elected to install a specific program on their computer, therefore any results used would be baised toward to types of people who install and use X-Fire.

     

    Yes, it is not random. So you are working with different probability here, still sufficient for these boards estimates, unless you can provide some data that xfire users are somewhat vastly different profile of average MMO gamer.

    If you cannot understand how people who would put a program such as XFire on their PCs are not representative of the average gamer, then you are simply out of touch with the mainstream. Most people do not put shit like that on their computers.

    Also, how is this thread still alive? Mods must be out Boxing Day shopping ;) 

    "Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb

  • oftenoften Tampa, FLPosts: 7Member
    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by often

    The same is NOT random, it's peole who have elected to install a specific program on their computer, therefore any results used would be baised toward to types of people who install and use X-Fire.

     

    Yes, it is not random. So you are working with different probability here, still sufficient for these boards estimates, unless you can provide some data that xfire users are somewhat vastly different profile of average MMO gamer.

    The problem with that assumption is that you cannot prove they are not significantly different from the average MMO gamer.  The assumption is flawed either way you lean (X-Fire is a good estimation tool, or a poor one).  All I was saying is that X-Fire is a good estimation tool for MMO players who have X-Fire installed, otherwise you cannot generalize the results of any analysis with any sort of statistical power.

    For the layperson, it might give a decent anecdotal idea of what some mmo players are playing, but I still put no stock in any sort of results.

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 7,860Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by often

    The problem with that assumption is that you cannot prove they are not significantly different from the average MMO gamer.

    Yep, but I do have solid indication that xfire users represent average MMO gamer - there is historical correlation with official data and/or other sources.

    Empirical evidence.

    I do not claim the estimates are accurate but you can use the data to make estimates accurate enough for these boards.

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 7,860Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by Cecropia

    If you cannot understand how people who would put a program such as XFire on their PCs are not representative of the average gamer, then you are simply out of touch with the mainstream.

    Please do explain to me how installation of xfire affects my average play time and frequency - related sample characteristics.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member

    No two people use the same method to calculate population numbers from XFire numbers. Nobody ever accurately predicts population numbers for games before they are published by the developer (if they are published by the developer). Every calculation requires an assumption on the part of the person doing the calculations. This should tell you something about XFire's accuracy in regards to game population numbers.

    If XFire were an accurate indicator of game population numbers, the developers would not need to publish their population numbers. We would know the population numbers from XFire's numbers. We can't do this.

    Why not? One, XFire holds back key bits of information that they use for marketing...they sell it. That's how they survive. Two, they aren't interested in game populations at all. That's not the information they are interested in, so they don't bother trying to get it. They are interested in the information that marketers and analytic firms are interested in. How many games to gamers play? How many hours a day do they spend playing? What types of games do they play the most? And so on. Overall game populations are a secondary consideration.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 7,860Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by madazz

    Problem is...

    The only problem is you do not have any argument besides your authority and when your authority is questioned, you do not come up with anything that would support that authority...

  • CecropiaCecropia The Great White North, ONPosts: 3,471Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by Cecropia

    If you cannot understand how people who would put a program such as XFire on their PCs are not representative of the average gamer, then you are simply out of touch with the mainstream.

     

    Please do explain to me how installation of xfire affects my average play time and frequency - related sample characteristics.

    What? You might want to reread what you quoted. You're not making sense.

    "Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb

  • madazzmadazz A town, ONPosts: 1,564Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by madazz

    Problem is...

     

    The only problem is you do not have any argument besides your authority and when your authority is questioned, you do not come up with anything that would support that authority...

    ok.

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 7,860Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by Cecropia

    What? You might want to reread what you quoted. You're not making sense.

    What part isn't clear to you?

    You implied that xfire makes MMO gamer characteristics somehow "special" and different from average MMO gamer, I am asking what those differences are.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Gdemami
    Originally posted by CecropiaIf you cannot understand how people who would put a program such as XFire on their PCs are not representative of the average gamer, then you are simply out of touch with the mainstream.

    Please do explain to me how installation of xfire affects my average play time and frequency - related sample characteristics.




    It's related to the people who are part of the sample. The entire sample has a specific, known bias. People who would voluntarily install XFire. I have no idea how that affects the results, but it's the kind of thing you want to examine and adjust for if you're trying to get from behaviors of your sample group to behaviors of the general population.

    Every result obtained, including average play time and frequency is affected by that bias because every member of the sample has that bias. It's not so much that the bias exists, but it's not examined or dealt with in any way. It's assumed that the bias towards installing XFire does not affect the results. It's yet another thing about XFire that's assumed.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • MoutonDocileMoutonDocile deux-montagnes, QCPosts: 17Member

    X-Fire measures x-fire users. iTunes chart measures itunes users. Xbox marketplace charts measures xbox users. PS Store charts measures PS users. Etc.

     

    You can extrapolate a trend from these charts, but nothing precise or really definitive. Games with lots of hour played are obviously more popular than those with lower numbers and that's all you can say about the numbers.

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 7,860Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by lizardbones

    It's not so much that the bias exists, but it's not examined or dealt with in any way.

    It is examined - there is a correlation between trends in xfire and official data.

    I simply do not see a reason to think otherwise when empirical evidence supports such conclusion.

    Again, I am not claiming it is accurate in terms of any serious study but for these boards it is more than fine - whether game has 360k subs or 320k isn't all that important and you can still assume trends from there since sample characteristics is unlikely changing dramatically.

  • IcewhiteIcewhite Elmhurst, ILPosts: 6,403Member
    I thought the mods outlawed this type of thread.

    Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  • ZebladeZeblade Colorado Springs, COPosts: 926Member
    I think maybe a few years ago this could be used but I dont know ONE person that still uses this. So any thing it shows will be really off.  You would be better just guessing.
  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Icewhite
    I thought the mods outlawed this type of thread.

    Not exactly. They are allowing the conversation to continue in one thread because all the other threads eventually became the same conversation.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • IcewhiteIcewhite Elmhurst, ILPosts: 6,403Member
    Originally posted by lizardbones
    Not exactly. They are allowing the conversation to continue in one thread because all the other threads eventually became the same conversation.

    Like the previous two multi-hundred page threads, from the same op, that they previously allowed to continue?

    I believe we need to reexamine our "spam" definition.

    Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  • SukiyakiSukiyaki GreenwichPosts: 1,398Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Scot
    Xfire is better than pulling numbers out of the air but that's about it.

    I would agree but then you have your special xfire speculation trolls who top even that.

    Pulling numbers out of thin air and use them as basis for calculations using xfire statistics. "lets assume game x has y player therefore game x must have z. Well the numbers do not exactly fit my prejudice. So lets assume magic factor a for reason b lowers gamex x to d. See proof your game fails.  Its statistics! Science! It cant be wrong! Adults do that! Did I already mention preelection polls prove my xfire speculation is a valid method to gauge player?"

     

    Just the opposite of one of the usual excuses to  justify it as accurate. "Hey these randomly out of context comparisons I just made look almost very close to what I would have pulled from my rear. They look very accurate in my opinion! Again xfire was proven accurate!! " the one right after "The stats always correlated with unnamed never cited "official data" of games because I said so. How can you ignore all this strong factual evidence!" and before "Hey xfire user play games more on the weekend and holidays, just like real humans! This clearly proofs user of this software couldnt be biased to certain genres/playstyles!"

     

    Coinicidence this topic was only so long banned as GW2 was on top of WoW? Too dangerous to be talked about? Cant allow to spread the word while danger remains it could have stayed there? Now that its back below its suddenly allowed again.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Gdemami

    Originally posted by lizardbones

    It's not so much that the bias exists, but it's not examined or dealt with in any way.


    It is examined - there is a correlation between trends in xfire and official data.

    I simply do not see a reason to think otherwise when empirical evidence supports such conclusion.

    Again, I am not claiming it is accurate in terms of any serious study but for these boards it is more than fine - whether game has 360k subs or 320k isn't all that important and you can still assume trends from there since sample characteristics is unlikely changing dramatically.



    Every member of the sample shared the bias towards being willing to install XFire on their computer. This bias has not been examined in a way that tells us what this means and how it affects the results obtained from XFire's data.

    The problem with saying there's no difference between 360k and 320k players is that both numbers are assumptions.

    If there's no way to go from XFire numbers to population numbers with any degree of accuracy at all, then there's no way to tell how accurate the rise and drop in population is either. I think we can assume that as XFire's numbers go up, the game's population goes up, and as XFire's numbers go down, the game's population goes down, but there's no way to tell by how much. You can't even say that a percentage drop in XFire's population means the same or a similar percentage drop in the game's population. You can, at best give it two degrees of accuracy for rising and falling numbers; "A little" or "A lot".

    Here's an experiment. With Eve's population numbers known, and XFire's player counts for Eve known, we should be able to tell if XFire is at least consistent. Each day, or each week, take the XFire number of players and the Eve number of players (how ever often Eve publishes their population numbers) and then see what the relation is between XFire's numbers and Eve's numbers. How stable is that relation?

    ** edit **
    For instance, right now there are 49,375 people playing Eve. XFire shows 690 people. The relation for Eve Online/XFire is currently 71.557971. So if we multiply XFire's number by that ratio, we should get something similar to Eve's current number of players.

    Eve's current players: http://eve-offline.net/
    XFire's Stats for Eve: http://beta.xfire.com/games/eve

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

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